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Taxa de câmbio no Brasil : dinâmicas da especulação e da arbitragem; Exchange rate in Brazil : speculation and arbitrage dynamics

Pedro Linhares Rossi
Fonte: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp Publicador: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 15/02/2012 Português
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Essa Tese procura desenvolver as especificidades da formação da taxa de câmbio brasileira tendo em conta fatores microeconômicos do mercado de câmbio como as instituições, os agentes, a regulamentação, as formas de especulação e os canais de arbitragem entre os diferentes mercados. Identifica-se na especulação com moedas, protagonizada pelo carry trade, um elemento de distorção cambial em diversas economias do sistema e, em especial, na economia brasileira. As conclusões do trabalho apontam para centralidade do mercado de derivativos e do carry trade na dinâmica cambial brasileira recente, onde se destacam o papel dos estrangeiros e investidores institucionais na formação de tendências no mercado de câmbio futuro, e dos bancos que transmitem essa pressão especulativa para o mercado à vista ao realizarem ganhos de arbitragem. Em certo sentido, propõe-se uma hierarquia entre os mercados de câmbio, onde o mercado futuro, impulsionado pelo mercado offshore, condiciona a formação de posições no mercado interbancário, assim como a liquidez no mercado à vista. Dessa forma, identifica-se uma determinação financeira da taxa de câmbio que distorce sistematicamente a trajetória cambial e condiciona a atuação desse preço macroeconômico como mecanismo de ajustamento e como ferramenta para o desenvolvimento econômico.; This Dissertation aims to develop the specificities of Brazilian exchange rate formation taking into account the microeconomic factors of the foreign exchange market as institutions...

Explaining arbitrage of CDS and Bond markets

Mishyn, Maksym
Fonte: Universidade Católica Portuguesa Publicador: Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em 10/03/2014 Português
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The focus of this paper is the theoretical arbitrage relationship between the Credit Default Swaps and Corporate Bonds. We find that the arbitrage relationship tends to be violated, creating short term opportunities for traders. Results of VECM suggest that the difference in price of credit risk persists over time. This violation is explained by three sets of factors: 1) firm-specific credit risk proxies, 2) bond and CDS liquidity and 3) overall market conditions. Variables gain more explanatory power during the last financial crisis.

The capital-asset-pricing model and arbitrage pricing theory: A unification

Khan, M. Ali; Sun, Yeneng
Fonte: The National Academy of Sciences of the USA Publicador: The National Academy of Sciences of the USA
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 15/04/1997 Português
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We present a model of a financial market in which naive diversification, based simply on portfolio size and obtained as a consequence of the law of large numbers, is distinguished from efficient diversification, based on mean-variance analysis. This distinction yields a valuation formula involving only the essential risk embodied in an asset’s return, where the overall risk can be decomposed into a systematic and an unsystematic part, as in the arbitrage pricing theory; and the systematic component further decomposed into an essential and an inessential part, as in the capital-asset-pricing model. The two theories are thus unified, and their individual asset-pricing formulas shown to be equivalent to the pervasive economic principle of no arbitrage. The factors in the model are endogenously chosen by a procedure analogous to the Karhunen–Loéve expansion of continuous time stochastic processes; it has an optimality property justifying the use of a relatively small number of them to describe the underlying correlational structures. Our idealized limit model is based on a continuum of assets indexed by a hyperfinite Loeb measure space, and it is asymptotically implementable in a setting with a large but finite number of assets. Because the difficulties in the formulation of the law of large numbers with a standard continuum of random variables are well known...

No-arbitrage bounds on American Put Options with a single maturity

Shah, Premal (Premal Y.)
Fonte: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: 64 p.
Português
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We consider in this thesis the problem of pricing American Put Options in a model-free framework where we do not make any assumptions about the price dynamics of the underlying except those implied by the no-arbitrage conditions. Our goal is to obtain bounds on the price of an American put option with a given strike and maturity directly from the prices of other American put options with the same maturity but different strikes and the current price of the underlying. We proceed by first investigating the structural properties of the price curve of American Put Options of a fixed maturity and derive necessary and sufficient conditions that strike - price pairs of these options must satisfy in order to exclude arbitrage. Using these conditions, we can find tight bounds on the price of the option of interest by solving a very tractable Linear Programming Problem. We then apply the methods developed to real market data. We observe that the quality of bounds that we obtain compares well with the quoted bid-ask spreads in most cases.; by Premal Shah.; Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Operations Research Center, 2006.; Includes bibliographical references (p. 63-64).

Pricing Currency Risk: Facts and Puzzles from Currency Boards

Schmukler, Sergio L.; Servén, Luis
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Português
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The authors investigate the patterns and determinants of the currency risk premium in two currency boards-Argentina and Hong Kong. Despite the presumed rigidity of currency boards, currency premium is almost always positive and at times very large. Its term structure is usually upward sloping, but flattens out or even becomes inverted at times of turbulence. Currency premia differ across markets. The forward discount typically exceeds the currency premium derived from interbank rates, particularly during times of crisis. The large magnitude of these cross-market differences can be the consequence of unexploited arbitrage opportunities, market segmentation, or other risks embedded in typical measures of currency risk. The premium and its term structure depend on domestic and global factors related to devaluation expectations and risk perceptions.

The international transmission of arbitrage information across futures markets

Bilson, Chris M; Brailsford, Tim; Evans, Twm
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 99769 bytes; 364 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
Português
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The paper examines whether deviations from a domestic spot-futures relation, as identified through mispricing series in stock index futures, spillover international boundaries. Such spillovers suggest that information from a mispricing series in one market conveys a signal of similar mispricing in another market. In the presence of arbitrage traders and in the absence of market frictions, mispricing series should be independent across international boundaries. The study employs a VAR analysis of stock index futures mispricing across Australia, the UK and USA. Using time zone differences, tests are conducted for the daily transmission of arbitrage information. The results reveal the relationship between mispricing series is bi-directional. Based on this finding, a trading strategy is employed to examine the economic significance of apparent profits. The results show that some profits are possible but that a long horizon, probably beyond the scope of most traders, is required to exploit the spillover information.; no

International tax arbitrage via corporate income splitting

Chand, Satish
Fonte: Crawford School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University; http://www.crawford.anu.edu.au Publicador: Crawford School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University; http://www.crawford.anu.edu.au
Tipo: Other; Working/Technical Paper Formato: 18 pages
Português
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If capital for corporate finance was available from a common global pool and at zero transaction cost, then does after-tax arbitrage require harmonisation of income tax rates across jurisdictions? This paper shows that the answer is in the negative. When a corporation has the choice in deciding the fraction of income that it distributes as dividends with the remainder held for future capitalisation, then such choice brings about arbitrage in after-tax rates of return to investors facing a common pre-tax return but different rates of income taxes. Policy implications are drawn from this result.

Projective system approach to the martingale characterization of the absence of arbitrage

Balbás, Alejandro; Mirás, Miguel Ángel; Muñoz-Bouzo, María José
Fonte: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid Publicador: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /03/2001 Português
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The equivalence between the absence of arbitrage and the existence of an equivalent martingale measure fails when an infinite number of trading dates is considered. By enlarging the set of states of nature and the probability measure through a projective system of topological spaces and Radon measures, we characterize the absence of arbitrage when the time set is countable.

On the Measurement of financial market integration

Balbás, Alejandro
Fonte: Real Academia de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales Publicador: Real Academia de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //1998 Português
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The paper presents sorne vector optimization problems to measure arbitrage and integration of financial markets. This new approach may be applied under static or dynamic asset pricing assumptions and leads to both, numerical and stochastic integration measures. Thus, the paper provides a new methodology in a very general setting, allowing many instruments in each market to test optimal arbitrage portfolios depending on the state of nature and the date. Markets with frictions are also analyzed, and sorne empirical results are presented.; El artículo aplica la optimización vectorial para introducir nuevos procedimientos que miden el nivel de arbitraje e integración de mercados financieros. Las técnicas son aplicables tanto bajo supuestos estáticos, como bajo supuestos dinámicos de valoración de activos. Por consiguiente el nivel de generalidad es alto, y se proporcionan instrumentos que permiten determinar estrategias de arbitraje óptimas de carácter dinámico y estocástico. Finalmente, también se analizan los mercados con fricciones y se presentan los resultados de algunas contrastaciones empíricas.

Agricultural Markets in Benin and Malawi : The Operation and Performance of Traders

Fafchamps, Marcel; Gabre-Madhin, Eleni
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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Drawing on original surveys of agricultural traders, the authors examine how traders operate in two Sub-Saharan African countries, Benin and Malawi. They find the following: The largest transaction costs for traders are search and transport. Search methods rely principally on personal visits by the trader, which raises search costs. And since enterprises are very small, transport represents a large share of marketing costs. Brand recognition, grading, and quality certification are nonexistent. Brokers and agents are not organized in commodity exchanges. Quantities are not pooled for transport and storage so as to achieve returns to scale. Interseasonal and interregional arbitrage is not feasible for most traders, who prefer to operate day to day in a small territory. This information provides some important insights into how agricultural trade could be improved. It suggests possible policy interventions in four main areas: increasing traders' asset base, reducing transaction risk, promoting more sophisticated business practices...

Les tiers dans le contentieux arbitral des investissements internationaux : de l'intervention au recours direct

Fortier, Carole
Fonte: Université de Montréal Publicador: Université de Montréal
Tipo: Thèse ou Mémoire numérique / Electronic Thesis or Dissertation
Português
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L’arbitrage public international est demeuré un domaine exclusif aux États souverains jusqu’à la fin des années 50, alors que sont apparus les traités bilatéraux relatifs aux investissements (TBI). La principale caractéristique de ces TBI est sans conteste le recours direct de l’investisseur étranger en arbitrage international contre des États récalcitrants, une alternative aux tribunaux locaux souvent inefficaces. Plus récemment, en 1998, l’organe d’appel de l’OMC est allé jusqu’à accepter l’opinion d’amicus curiae dans un différend opposant des États et aujourd’hui, l’admission de ce type d’opinion est expressément prévue dans plusieurs TBI de nouvelle génération. Mais si l’investisseur bénéficie d’un recours devant une instance arbitrale neutre, il en va tout autrement pour la population locale qui se trouve souvent lésée par la présence, sur son territoire, d’investisseurs étrangers. Le droit de présenter une opinion ne peut remplacer le droit de faire valoir une réclamation. Se pose donc la question : est-ce que, dans le contexte actuel du droit de l’investissement international, des tiers (par rapport aux parties signataires de TBI et par rapport aux parties au différend) peuvent prétendre à une voie de recours direct en arbitrage international? Nous sommes d’avis qu’une telle voie de recours est actuellement possible et que le contexte de l’arbitrage relatif à l’investissement constitue un terrain fertile pour la mise en place de ce droit...

Modélisation du carnet d'ordres limites et prévision de séries temporelles

Simard, Clarence
Fonte: Université de Montréal Publicador: Université de Montréal
Tipo: Thèse ou Mémoire numérique / Electronic Thesis or Dissertation
Português
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Le contenu de cette thèse est divisé de la façon suivante. Après un premier chapitre d’introduction, le Chapitre 2 est consacré à introduire aussi simplement que possible certaines des théories qui seront utilisées dans les deux premiers articles. Dans un premier temps, nous discuterons des points importants pour la construction de l’intégrale stochastique par rapport aux semimartingales avec paramètre spatial. Ensuite, nous décrirons les principaux résultats de la théorie de l’évaluation en monde neutre au risque et, finalement, nous donnerons une brève description d’une méthode d’optimisation connue sous le nom de dualité. Les Chapitres 3 et 4 traitent de la modélisation de l’illiquidité et font l’objet de deux articles. Le premier propose un modèle en temps continu pour la structure et le comportement du carnet d’ordres limites. Le comportement du portefeuille d’un investisseur utilisant des ordres de marché est déduit et des conditions permettant d’éliminer les possibilités d’arbitrages sont données. Grâce à la formule d’Itô généralisée il est aussi possible d’écrire la valeur du portefeuille comme une équation différentielle stochastique. Un exemple complet de modèle de marché est présenté de même qu’une méthode de calibrage. Dans le deuxième article...

Testing for Stock Market Integration in a Developing Economy: Colombia

Gutiérrez Ramírez, Luis Hernando; Otero Cardona, Jesús Gilberto
Fonte: Facultad de Economía Publicador: Facultad de Economía
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/book; info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /08/2006 Português
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This paper examines the linkage between two parallel stock exchanges trading the same shares in Colombia, namely the Bogotá Stock Exchange and the Medellín Stock Exchange. We provide empirical evidence to support the hypothesis that these two markets can be best described as fully integrated over a period of almost four decades, which is consistent with the view that arbitrage opportunities are only possible in the short but not in the long run. In addition, we find evide

Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets

Rothschild, Michael; Chamberlain, Gary
Fonte: National Bureau of Economic Research Publicador: National Bureau of Economic Research
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We examine the implications of arbitrage in a market with many assets. The absence of arbitrage opportunities implies that the linear functionals that give the mean and cost of a portfolio are continuous; hence there exist unique portfolios that represent these functionals. These portfolios span the mean-variance efficient set. We resolve the question of when a market with many assets permits so much diversification that risk-free investment opportunities are available. Ross 112, 141 showed that if there is a factor structure, then the mean returns are approximately linear functions of factor loadings. We define an approximate factor structure and show that this weaker restriction is sufficient for Ross' result. If the covariance matrix of the asset returns has only K unbounded eigenvalues, then there is an approximate factor structure and it is unique. The corresponding K eigenvectors converge and play the role of factor loadings. Hence only a principal component analysis is needed in empirical work.; Economics

Collateral Margining in Arbitrage-Free Counterparty Valuation Adjustment including Re-Hypotecation and Netting

Brigo, Damiano; Capponi, Agostino; Pallavicini, Andrea; Papatheodorou, Vasileios
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 20/01/2011 Português
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This paper generalizes the framework for arbitrage-free valuation of bilateral counterparty risk to the case where collateral is included, with possible re-hypotecation. We analyze how the payout of claims is modified when collateral margining is included in agreement with current ISDA documentation. We then specialize our analysis to interest-rate swaps as underlying portfolio, and allow for mutual dependences between the default times of the investor and the counterparty and the underlying portfolio risk factors. We use arbitrage-free stochastic dynamical models, including also the effect of interest rate and credit spread volatilities. The impact of re-hypotecation, of collateral margining frequency and of dependencies on the bilateral counterparty risk adjustment is illustrated with a numerical example.

Correlation breakdown, copula credit default models and arbitrage

Tzani, Rodanthy; Polychronakos, Alexios P.
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 31/08/2009 Português
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The recent "correlation breakdown" in the modeling of credit default swaps, in which model correlations had to exceed 100% in order to reproduce market prices of supersenior tranches, is analyzed and argued to be a fundamental market inconsistency rather than an inadequacy of the specific model. As a consequence, markets under such conditions are exposed to the possibility of arbitrage. The general construction of arbitrage portfolios under specific conditions is presented.; Comment: 15 pages

Viscosity Characterization of the Arbitrage Function under Model Uncertainty

Wang, Yinghui
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 30/01/2015 Português
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We show that in an equity market model with Knightian uncertainty regarding the relative risk and covariance structure of its assets, the arbitrage function -- defined as the reciprocal of the highest return on investment that can be achieved relative to the market using nonanticipative strategies, and under any admissible market model configuration -- is a viscosity solution of an associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation under appropriate boundedness, continuity and Markovian assumptions on the uncertainty structure. This result generalizes that of Fernholz and Karatzas (2011), who characterized this arbitrage function as a classical solution of a Cauchy problem for this HJB equation under much stronger conditions than those needed here.; Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1202.2999 by other authors

Diversity and relative arbitrage in equity markets

Fernholz, Robert; Karatzas, Ioannis; Kardaras, Constantinos
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 20/03/2008 Português
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A financial market is called "diverse" if no single stock is ever allowed to dominate the entire market in terms of relative capitalization. In the context of the standard Ito-process model initiated by Samuelson (1965) we formulate this property (and the allied, successively weaker notions of "weak diversity" and "asymptotic weak diversity") in precise terms. We show that diversity is possible to achieve, but delicate. Several illustrative examples are provided, which demonstrate that weakly-diverse financial markets contain relative arbitrage opportunities: it is possible to outperform (or underperform) such markets over sufficiently long time-horizons, and to underperform them significantly over arbitrary time-horizons. The existence of such relative arbitrage does not interfere with the development of option pricing, and has interesting consequences for the pricing of long-term warrants and for put-call parity. Several open questions are suggested for further study.; Comment: 28 pages

No-Arbitrage Prices of Cash Flows and Forward Contracts as Choquet Representations

Fischer, Tom
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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In a market of deterministic cash flows, given as an additive, symmetric relation of exchangeability on the finite signed Borel measures on the non-negative real time axis, it is shown that the only arbitrage-free price functional that fulfills some additional mild requirements is the integral of the unit zero-coupon bond prices with respect to the payment measures. For probability measures, this is a Choquet representation, where the Dirac measures, as unit zero-coupon bonds, are the extreme points. Dropping one of the requirements, the Lebesgue decomposition is used to construct counterexamples, where the Choquet price formula does not hold despite of an arbitrage-free market model. The concept is then extended to deterministic streams of assets and currencies in general, yielding a valuation principle for forward markets. Under mild assumptions, it is shown that a foreign cash flow's worth in local currency is identical to the value of the cash flow in local currency for which the Radon-Nikodym derivative with respect to the foreign cash flow is the forward FX rate.; Comment: JEL Classification: G12, G13

A note on asymptotic exponential arbitrage with exponentially decaying failure probability

Du, Kai; Neufeld, Ariel David
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 26/07/2012 Português
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The goal of this paper is to prove a result conjectured in F\"ollmer and Schachermayer [FS07], even in slightly more general form. Suppose that S is a continuous semimartingale and satisfies a large deviations estimate; this is a particular growth condition on the mean-variance tradeoff process of S. We show that S then allows asymptotic exponential arbitrage with exponentially decaying failure probability, which is a strong and quantitative form of long-term arbitrage. In contrast to F\"ollmer and Schachermayer [FS07], our result does not assume that S is a diffusion, nor does it need any ergodicity assumption.