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Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change

Heltberg, Rasmus; Bonch-Osmolovskiy, Misha
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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106.09%
This paper develops a methodology for regional disaggregated estimation and mapping of the areas that are ex-ante the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and variability and applies it to Tajikistan, a mountainous country highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The authors construct the vulnerability index as a function of exposure to climate variability and natural disasters, sensitivity to the impacts of that exposure, and capacity to adapt to ongoing and future climatic changes. This index can inform decisions about adaptation responses that might benefit from an assessment of how and why vulnerability to climate change varies regionally and it may therefore prove a useful tool for policy analysts interested in how to ensure pro-poor adaptation in developing countries. Index results for Tajikistan suggest that vulnerability varies according to socio-economic and institutional development in ways that do not follow directly from exposure or elevation: geography is not destiny. The results indicate that urban areas are by far the least vulnerable...

Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Ethiopia

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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126.07%
The report is part of a broader study, the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC), which has two objectives: (a) to develop a global estimate of adaptation costs for informing international climate negotiations; and (b) to help decision makers in developing countries assess the risks posed by climate change and design national strategies for adapting to it. This paper is one of a series of country-level studies, where national data were disaggregated to more local and sector levels, helping to understand adaptation from a bottom-up perspective. Ethiopia is heavily dependent on rainfed agriculture. Its geographical location and topography in combination with low adaptive capacity entail a high vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. Historically the country has been prone to extreme weather variability. Rainfall is highly erratic, most rain falls with high intensity, and there is a high degree of variability in both time and space. Since the early 1980s, the country has suffered seven major droughts five of which have led to famines in addition to dozens of local droughts. Major floods also occurred in different parts of the country in 1988...

Economic of Adaptation to Climate Change : Bangladesh, Volume 2. Annexes

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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116.08%
Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate risks. Two-thirds of the nation is less than 5 meters above sea level and is susceptible to river and rainwater flooding, particularly during the monsoon. The Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP), adopted by the government of Bangladesh in 2009, seek to guide activities and programs related to climate change in Bangladesh. Until the past few years, climatic risks have been poorly reflected in national policies and programs Bangladesh. The objective of this study is to help decision makers in Bangladesh to better understand and assess the risks posed by climate change and to better design strategies to adapt to climate change. The study takes as its starting point the BCCSAP. It builds upon and strengthens the analytical models and quantitative assessment tools already in use in Bangladesh in support of the research and knowledge management theme of BCCSAP. The scope of this study is more limited than the BCCSAP, so the reported costs represent a lower bound on the total adaptation costs in Bangladesh. The study was developed in four discrete and somewhat independent components with varying degrees of analytical depth and quantification.

Economic of Adaptation to Climate Change : Bangladesh, Volume 1. Main Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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116.1%
Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate risks. Two-thirds of the nation is less than 5 meters above sea level and is susceptible to river and rainwater flooding, particularly during the monsoon. The Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP), adopted by the government of Bangladesh in 2009, seek to guide activities and programs related to climate change in Bangladesh. Until the past few years, climatic risks have been poorly reflected in national policies and programs Bangladesh. The objective of this study is to help decision makers in Bangladesh to better understand and assess the risks posed by climate change and to better design strategies to adapt to climate change. The study takes as its starting point the BCCSAP. It builds upon and strengthens the analytical models and quantitative assessment tools already in use in Bangladesh in support of the research and knowledge management theme of BCCSAP. The scope of this study is more limited than the BCCSAP, so the reported costs represent a lower bound on the total adaptation costs in Bangladesh. The study was developed in four discrete and somewhat independent components with varying degrees of analytical depth and quantification.

Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Mozambique

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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126.07%
This report is part of a broader global study, the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC), which has two principal objectives: (a) to develop a global estimate of adaptation costs for informing international climate negotiations; and (b) to help decision makers in developing countries assess the risks posed by climate change and design national strategies for adapting to it. The purpose of this study is to assist the Government of Mozambique in its efforts to understand the potential economic impacts of climate change and to support its efforts to develop sound policies and investments in response to these potential impacts. The Mozambique Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) study selected four sectors that are believed to be vulnerable to climate change: (1) agriculture, which employs over 70 percent of the population; (2) energy, particularly hydropower generation, which is dependent on water runoff; (3) transport infrastructure, notably roads; and (4) coastal areas, which do not conform to a "sector" but characterize specific geographical areas vulnerable to floods and storm surges directly and indirectly related to sea level rise. The report ends with a discussion of seven lessons learned from the study. Volume 1contains the final report...

Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Synthesis Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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126.11%
To address these objectives, the study was conducted on two parallel tracks: (1) a global tracka top-down approach, in which national databases were used to generate aggregate estimates at a global scale, drawing on a wide variety of sector studies; and (2) a country level track: a bottom-up approach, in whichsub-national data were aggregated to generate estimates at economywide, sectoral, and local levels. This Synthesis Report integrates and summarizes the key findings of a global study report and seven country case study reports covering Bangladesh, Bolivia, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, Samoa, and Vietnam(Figure ES-1). By providing information on lessons learned and insights gained on adaptation to climate change from global, country, and sector-level analyses,the hope is to help policymakers worldwide prioritize actions, along with developing a robust, integrated approach for greater resilience to climate risks. The Report begins with the concepts and methodology used for analyses in both the global and the country case studies...

Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Vietnam

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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116%
This report provides a synthesis of key findings of sector studies undertaken in Vietnam in the context of the EACC study. The sector studies were on agriculture (Zhu & Guo 2010), a separate computable general equilibrium [CGE] analysisbased on agriculture findings (Adams et al. 2010), aquaculture (Kam et al. 2010), forestry (Phuong). At the global level, the EACC study estimates that it will costbetween $70 and $100 billion each year to adapt to climate change over the period 2010 to 2050. The study was funded by the governments of the UnitedKingdom, Netherlands, and Switzerland. Further details may be found at: www.worldbank.org/eacc. In addition, the synthesis report from Vietnam and the six underlying national sector reports can be downloaded from the Environment site of the World Bank s web site for Vietnam: www.worldbank.org/vn/environment.et al. 2010, Almeida et al. 2010), social (McElwee et al. 2010), and coastal ports (VIMARU 2010). Further details can be found in the individual sector reports prepared by teams of national and international experts.

Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Samoa

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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106.11%
Over the last two decades Samoa has suffered major damage from two cyclones in 1990-91, minor damage from a third cyclone in 2004, and an earthquake tsunami in 2009. Changes in the scale and impact of these types of natural disasters are likely to be important consequences of climate change for the country because the increases in sea level and in average sea surface temperatures will increase theintensity and damage from major storms. Other potential impacts are linked to changes in the weather patterns associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The primary concern focuses on the impact on agriculture, especially in periods of lower precipitation following strong El Niño episodes.This study examines the consequences of an increase in average temperatures of up to 1°C by 2050 and up to 2.75°C by 2100 for the frequency and intensity of major cyclones that hit the islands. Estimates of the economic damage caused by storms in the past have been used to calibrate a damage function that yields an estimated increase in the expected value of economic damage as the peak wind speeds for storms with return periods of 10...

Adaptation to Climate Change -- Vulnerability Assessment and Economic Aspects : Plurinational State of Bolivia

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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126.12%
The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) study estimates that it will cost $75 - $100 billion each year for developing countries to adapt to climate change from 2010 to 2050 (World Bank 2009a). The study funded by the governments of the Netherlands, United Kingdom, and Switzerland has two specific objectives. The first is to develop a global estimate of adaptation coststo inform the international community s efforts on how to tailor adequate and sustainable support regarding new and additional resources to help vulnerable developing countries meet adaptation costs. The second objective is to support decision makers in developing countries to better evaluate and assess the risks posed by climate change and to better design strategies to adapt to climate change. The EACC study includes a global track to meet the first study objective and a case study track to meet the second objective. The country track comprises seven countries: Ethiopia, Mozambique, Ghana, Bangladesh, Vietnam, The Plurinational State of Bolivia...

The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Methodology Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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106.11%
The proposed methodology begins with a consistent downscaling of projected climatic changes from a multiplicity of General Circulation to local levels. Subsets of the suite of downscaled climatic factors are then to be used to estimate the vector of impacts on key economic sectors of each country, using sector-specific impact assessment models. Based on this information, alternative government adaptation projects will be specified and optimally chosen subject to a government budget constraint. Thereafter, direct impacts of climate change will serve as inputs into a macroeconomic framework to examine the indirect inter-sectoral impacts of climate change as well as adaption strategies. Finally, at each step the analysis will be complemented with perspectives and insights of people whose livelihoods are being or will be affected by changes in climate. Impacts of the climate change and the benefits of specific adaptation measures will be examined in the context of sub-populations defined by livelihood profiles. Local-level analysis of past and present autonomous adaptation measures for a range of groups stratified by sets of livelihood profiles will be conducted using participatory rural appraisal based primary fieldwork in addition to holding participatory workshops and consultations.

Adaptation to climate change: the attitude and behaviour of rice farmers in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam.

Dang, Hoa Le
Fonte: Universidade de Adelaide Publicador: Universidade de Adelaide
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
Publicado em //2014 Português
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106.08%
Adaptation to climate change is a critical issue to many developing economies. The issue is particularly important to agriculture, a sector relying substantially on climate-sensitive resources. However, understanding of adaptation is limited in Southeast Asian contexts, including Vietnam. This thesis, therefore, investigates the attitude and behaviour of rice farmers in the Mekong Delta, a major agricultural region of Vietnam, in response to climate change. The thesis is guided by an integrated conceptual framework that was predominantly developed from protection motivation theory. The framework incorporates socio-economic and psychological factors to explain farmers’ adaptation intentions and behaviours to climate change. Focus group discussions and agricultural officer interviews generated insights into the research context and supplemented the questionnaire design. A structured questionnaire was used to interview 600 randomly chosen rice farmers in the three selected provinces in the Mekong Delta. Those provinces were identified as highly, moderately, and mildly vulnerable to climate change. The focus group discussions and agricultural officer interviews indicated that farmers were aware of climate change. However, they had limited knowledge of the importance of adaptation to their livelihoods. Barriers to farmers’ adaptation were not exclusively limited to economic factors and resource constraints. Some psychological factors also hindered adaptation (e.g. maladaptation...

Water and Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin; Annex 2. Guidance Note on Adaptation to Climate Change for Flooding

World Bank Group
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Report; Economic & Sector Work; Economic & Sector Work :: Other Environmental Study
Português
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126.07%
This report presents the water and climate adaptation plan (WATCAP) developed for the Sava river basin (SRB) as result of a study undertaken by the World Bank. The WATCAP is intended to help to bridge the gap between the climate change predictions for the SRB and the decision makers in current and planned water management investment projects that will be affected by changing climate trends. The purpose of the report is to: (i) assist stakeholders and decision makers in assessing and planning for the risks generated by climate change impacts on water resources; (ii) provide a basis for future plans and studies of adaptation to climate change impacts in the SRB; and (iii) stimulate cooperation and debate across the basin toward additional and more detailed studies on climate change impacts at the regional and basin scale. The SRB is projected to experience small increases in water use by the public water supply, industry, energy, and agricultural and irrigation sectors. However, it is widely expected that new hydropower plants (HPPs) will be constructed in the near future...

Water and Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin; Annex 4. Guidance Note on Adaptation to Climate Change for Navigation

World Bank Group
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Report; Economic & Sector Work :: Other Environmental Study; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
116.04%
This report presents the water and climate adaptation plan (WATCAP) developed for the Sava river basin (SRB) as result of a study undertaken by the World Bank. The WATCAP is intended to help to bridge the gap between the climate change predictions for the SRB and the decision makers in current and planned water management investment projects that will be affected by changing climate trends. The purpose of the report is to: (i) assist stakeholders and decision makers in assessing and planning for the risks generated by climate change impacts on water resources; (ii) provide a basis for future plans and studies of adaptation to climate change impacts in the SRB; and (iii) stimulate cooperation and debate across the basin toward additional and more detailed studies on climate change impacts at the regional and basin scale. The SRB is projected to experience small increases in water use by the public water supply, industry, energy, and agricultural and irrigation sectors. However, it is widely expected that new hydropower plants (HPPs) will be constructed in the near future...

Water and Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin; Annex 5 Guidance Note on Adaptation to Climate Change for Agriculture

World Bank Group
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Report; Economic & Sector Work :: Other Environmental Study; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
116.04%
This report presents the water and climate adaptation plan (WATCAP) developed for the Sava river basin (SRB) as result of a study undertaken by the World Bank. The WATCAP is intended to help to bridge the gap between the climate change predictions for the SRB and the decision makers in current and planned water management investment projects that will be affected by changing climate trends. The purpose of the report is to: (i) assist stakeholders and decision makers in assessing and planning for the risks generated by climate change impacts on water resources; (ii) provide a basis for future plans and studies of adaptation to climate change impacts in the SRB; and (iii) stimulate cooperation and debate across the basin toward additional and more detailed studies on climate change impacts at the regional and basin scale. The SRB is projected to experience small increases in water use by the public water supply, industry, energy, and agricultural and irrigation sectors. However, it is widely expected that new hydropower plants (HPPs) will be constructed in the near future...

Water and Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin; Annex 3. Guidance Note on Adaptation to Climate Change for Hydropower

World Bank Group
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Report; Economic & Sector Work; Economic & Sector Work :: Other Environmental Study
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
126.04%
This report presents the water and climate adaptation plan (WATCAP) developed for the Sava river basin (SRB) as result of a study undertaken by the World Bank. The WATCAP is intended to help to bridge the gap between the climate change predictions for the SRB and the decision makers in current and planned water management investment projects that will be affected by changing climate trends. The purpose of the report is to: (i) assist stakeholders and decision makers in assessing and planning for the risks generated by climate change impacts on water resources; (ii) provide a basis for future plans and studies of adaptation to climate change impacts in the SRB; and (iii) stimulate cooperation and debate across the basin toward additional and more detailed studies on climate change impacts at the regional and basin scale. The SRB is projected to experience small increases in water use by the public water supply, industry, energy, and agricultural and irrigation sectors. However, it is widely expected that new hydropower plants (HPPs) will be constructed in the near future...

Pro-Poor Adaptation to Climate Change in Urban Centers : Case Studies of Vulnerability and Resilience in Kenya and Nicaragua

Moser, Caroline; Norton, Andrew; Stein, Alfredo; Georgieva, Sophia
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Social Protection Study
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
116.12%
The objective of this economic sector work (ESW) is to address these gaps by piloting a methodology capable of quickly and cost-effectively introducing into adaptation planning processes an appreciation of the significance of climate change impacts for poor people in informal urban settlements. Specifically in the two case study sites (Mombasa in Kenya and Esteli in Nicaragua) sought to: a) make visible climate change impacts of various kinds on poor people; b) illustrate what poor households, small businesses and groups in communities are doing to cope with such climate change impacts (experienced as increasingly variable and capricious weather patterns); and c) identify how policy and institutional systems can best build on local realities to develop pro-poor urban climate change adaptation actions, particularly relating to resilience. The report introduces an asset-based framework to analyze the vulnerability of urban poor people to severe weather events whose frequency or intensity climate change may be increasing...

Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Environmental Study
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
116.11%
The climate is changing; and the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region is vulnerable to the consequences. Many of the region's countries are facing warmer temperatures, a changing hydrology and more extremes, droughts, floods, heat waves, windstorms, and forest fires. Already the frequency and cost of natural disasters have risen dramatically in the region. And the concentration of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere guarantees that similar or greater changes are yet to come, even if the world completely stopped emitting carbon dioxide. Now, and at least for the near future, ECA vulnerability is being driven more by its existing sensitivity than by the severity of the climate impacts. In fact, ECA already suffers from a serious adaptation deficit even to its current climate. This derives from a combination of socioeconomic factors and the Soviet legacy of environmental mismanagement. This report presents an overview of what adaptation to climate change might mean for ECA. It starts with a discussion of emerging best practice adaptation planning around the world and a review of the latest climate projections. The report then discusses possible actions to improve resilience organized around impacts on natural resources (water...

Reducing the Vulnerability of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change : Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options

Sutton, William R.; Srivastava, Jitendra P.; Neumann, James E.; Strzępek, Kenneth M.; Boehlert, Brent B.
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
106.08%
Agricultural production is inextricably tied to climate, making agriculture one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. In countries such as the Former Yugoslav Republic (FYR) of Macedonia, the risks of climate change for the agricultural sector are a particularly immediate and important problem because the majority of the rural population depends either directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods. Climate impacts can therefore undermine progress that has been made in poverty reduction and adversely impact food security and economic growth in vulnerable rural areas. In order to be effective, a plan for adapting the sector to climate change must strengthen both human capital and physical capital in their capacity. The need to adapt to climate change in all sectors is now on the agenda of national governments and development partners. As a result, development partners will continue to have an important role in enhancing the adaptive capacity of the Macedonian agricultural sector. Another key factor for FYR Macedonia's development of an adaptation plan for agriculture is furthering FYR Macedonia's work toward European Union (EU) accession, for which FYR Macedonia has been a candidate since 2005. The Macedonian government has already begun to focus on required EU reforms...

Adapting to Climate Change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Fay, Marianne; Block, Rachel I.; Ebinger, Jane
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
116.11%
The climate is changing, and the Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region is vulnerable to the consequences. Many of the region's countries are facing warmer temperatures, a changing hydrology, and more extremes, droughts, floods, heat waves, windstorms, and forest fires. This book presents an overview of what adaptation to climate change might mean for Eastern Europe and Central Asia. It starts with a discussion of emerging best-practice adaptation planning around the world and a review of the latest climate projections. It then discusses possible actions to improve resilience organized around impacts on health, natural resources (water, biodiversity, and the coastal environment), the 'unbuilt' environment (agriculture and forestry), and the built environment (infrastructure and housing). The last chapter concludes with a discussion of two areas in great need of strengthening given the changing climate: disaster preparedness and hydro-meteorological services. This book has four key messages: a) contrary to popular perception...

Reducing the Vulnerability of Georgia's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change : Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options

Ahouissoussi, Nicolas; Neumann, James E.; Srivastava, Jitendra P.; Okan, Cuneyt; Droogers, Peter
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
106.08%
In countries such as Georgia, the risks of climate change for the agricultural sector are a particularly immediate and important problem because the majority of the rural population depends either directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods. The most effective plans for adapting the sector to climate change will involve both human capital and physical capital enhancements; however, many of these investments can also enhance agricultural productivity right now, under current climate conditions. Recommendations, such as improving the accessibility to farmers of agriculturally relevant weather forecasts, will yield benefits as soon as they are implemented and provide a means for farmers to autonomously adapt their practices as climate changes. In response to these challenges, the World Bank and the Government of Georgia embarked on a joint study to identify and prioritize options for climate change adaptation of the agricultural sector, with explicit consideration of greenhouse gas emission reduction potential of these options. The study was conducted in three stages: awareness raising; quantitative and qualitative analysis; and finalization of the analysis and menu of adaptation options. This report provides a menu of options for climate change adaptation in the agricultural and water resources sectors...