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Bilateral M&A Activity from the Global South

Dailami, Mansoor; Kurlat, Sergio; Lim, Jamus Jerome
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.24%
This paper studies the factors associated with outbound bilateral mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity by firms located in emerging economies. The authors document recent trends in emerging market M&A flows, which have risen dramatically over the past decade, and explore the factors that may have contributed to this rise. They find distinct patterns for M&A deals according to whether the acquisition targets are in other emerging economies or advanced countries, and that these differences can be attributed to differing theoretical motivations behind foreign direct investment. The authors also consider the implications of their model for future M&A originating in the global South, in light of the global financial crisis of 2008.

Emerging Economies in the 2000s : Real Decoupling and Financial Recoupling

Yeyati, Eduardo Levy; Williams, Tomas
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.12%
The paper documents an intriguing development in the emerging world in the 2000s: a decoupling from the business cycle of advanced countries, combined with the strengthening of the co-movements in the main emerging market assets that predates the synchronized sell-off during the crisis. In addition, the paper tests the hypothesis that financial globalization, to the extent that it creates a common, global investor base for emerging markets, could lead to a tighter asset correlation despite the weaker economic ties. While an examination of the impact of alternative financial globalization proxies does not yield conclusive results, a closer look at global emerging market equity and bond funds shows that the latter indeed foster financial recoupling during downturns, reflecting the fact that they trade near their respective benchmarks and respond to withdrawals by liquidating holdings across the board.

How Resilient Were Emerging Economies to the Global Crisis?

Didier, Tatiana; Hevia, Constantino; Schmukler, Sergio L.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.21%
This paper studies the cross-country incidence of the 2008-2009 global crisis and documents a structural break in the way emerging economies responded to the global shock. Contrary to popular perceptions, emerging market economies suffered growth collapses comparable, or even larger, to those experienced by advanced economies during the crisis. With such large financial and real shock, most of the world economy came to a halt when the crisis hit, with most countries resuming their pre-crisis growth rates afterwards. While emerging economies were not able to avoid the crisis collapse, they grew at a higher rate during the post crisis, relative to before and, as usual, to advanced countries. Moreover, emerging economies initiated their recovery sooner. Breaking with the past, emerging economies were able to conduct countercyclical policies, and became more similar to developed countries in softening the impact of the crisis and in their ability to pursue expansionary policies.

From Flying Geese to Leading Dragons : New Opportunities and Strategies for Structural Transformation in Developing Countries

Lin, Justin Yifu
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.28%
Economic development is a process of continuous industrial and technological upgrading in which any country, regardless of its level of development, can succeed if it develops industries that are consistent with its comparative advantage, determined by its endowment structure. The secret winning formula for developing countries is to exploit the latecomer advantage by building up industries that are growing dynamically in more advanced fast growing countries that have endowment structures similar to theirs. By following carefully selected lead countries, latecomers can emulate the leader-follower, flying-geese pattern that has served well successfully catching-up economies since the 18th century. The emergence of large middle-income countries such as China, India, and Brazil as new growth poles in the world, and their dynamic growth and climbing of the industrial ladder, offer an unprecedented opportunity to all developing economies with income levels currently below theirs --including those in Sub-Saharan Africa. Having itself been a "follower goose...

Industrial Structure, Appropriate Technology and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries

Lin, Justin Yifu; Zhang, Pengfei
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.08%
The authors develop an endogenous growth model that combines structural change with repeated product improvement. That is, the technologies in one sector of the model become not only increasingly capital-intensive, but also progressively productive over time. Application of the basic model to less developed economies shows that the (optimal) industrial structure and the (most) appropriate technologies in less developed economies are endogenously determined by their factor endowments. A firm in a less developed country that enters a capital-intensive, advanced industry in a developed country would be nonviable owing to the relative scarcity of capital in the factor endowments of less developed countries.

Criss-Crossing Globalization : Uphill Flows of Skill-Intensive Goods and Foreign Direct Investment

Mattoo, Aaditya; Subramanian, Arvind
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.16%
This paper documents an unusual and possibly significant phenomenon: the export of skills, embodied in goods, services or capital from poorer to richer countries. The authors first present a set of stylized facts. Then, using a measure that combines the sophistication of a country s exports with the average income level of destination countries, they show that the performance of a number of developing countries - notably China, Mexico and South Africa - matches that of much more advanced countries - such as Japan, Spain and the United States. The authors create a new combined dataset on foreign direct investment (covering greenfield investment as well as mergers and acquisitions). The analysis shows that flows of foreign direct investment to developed countries from developing countries - like Brazil, India, Malaysia and South Africa - as a share of their GDP, are as large as flows from developed countries - like Japan, Korea and the United States. The authors suggest that it is not just the composition of exports but their destination that matters. In both cross-sectional and panel regressions...

Medium-term Business Cycles in Developing Countries

Comin, Diego; Loayza, Norman; Pasha, Farooq; Serven, Luis
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.17%
Empirical evidence - including the current global crisis - suggests that shocks from advanced countries often have a disproportionate effect on developing economies. Can this account for the fact that aggregate fluctuations are larger and more persistent in the latter than in the former economies? And what are the mechanisms at play? This paper addresses these questions using a model of an industrial and a developing economy trading goods and assets, with (i) a product cycle shaping the range of intermediate goods used to produce new capital in each country, and (ii) investment adjustment costs in the developing economy. Innovation by the advanced economy results in new intermediate goods, at first produced at home, and eventually transferred to the developing economy through direct investment. The pace of innovation and technology transfer is driven by profitability. This process of technology diffusion creates a medium-term connection between both economies, over and above the short-term link through trade. Calibration of the model to match Mexico-United States trade and foreign direct investment flows shows that this mechanism can explain why shocks to the United States economy have a larger effect on Mexico than on the United States itself...

China and Central and Eastern European Countries : Regional Networks, Global Supply Chain, or International Competitors?

Fung, K.C.; Korhonen, Iikka; Li, Ke; Ng, Francis
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.08%
China has emerged as one of the top recipients of foreign direct investment in the world. Meanwhile, the successful transition experience of many Central and Eastern European countries has also allowed them to attract an increasing share of global foreign direct investment. In this paper, the authors use a panel data set to investigate whether foreign direct investment flows to these two regions are complements, substitutes, or independent of each other. Taking into account the role of host country characteristics - such as market size, degree of trade liberalization, and human capital - the authors find no evidence that foreign direct investment flows to one region are at the expense of those to the other. Instead, the results suggest that foreign direct investment flows are driven by distinct regional production networks (and thus are largely independent of each other) and the development of global supply chains (indicating that foreign direct investment flows are complementary).

Post-Crisis Growth in Developing Countries : A Special Report of the Commission on Growth and Development on the Implications of the 2008 Financial Crisis

Commission on Growth and Development
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.18%
#advanced countries, advanced economies, aggregate demand, arbitrage, Asian Bond Market, Asset Backed Securities, Asset prices, Backed Security, balance sheet, balance sheets, bank balance sheets, bank credit, bank intermediation, banking crises, banking system, banking systems, bond, bond markets, bond yields, borrower, borrowing costs, Budget deficits, budget surplus, budget surpluses, capital accounts, capital controls, capital flows, Capital Formation, capital gains, capital inflows, capital requirements, cash transfers, Central Bank, central banks, channels of credit, co-ordination failure, collateral, collateral for loans, commercial paper, Commodity, commodity price, Commodity prices, conflicts of interest, consumer durables, consumer spending, contingent liabilities, country to country, credibility, credit constraints, credit increases, Credit Line, credit provision, credit quality, credit spreads, credit system, creditors, creditworthiness, Currency, currency mismatches, Debt, debt markets, Debt Obligation, debts, defaults, Deposit, derivative, derivative instruments, derivatives, Developing Countries, developing country, developing economies, Development Bank, disclosure requirements, domestic banks, domestic capital, domestic capital markets, domestic market, Economic Development, efficient markets, emerging economies, emerging markets, equipment, Exchange Commission, exchange rate, exporters, exposure, external financing, Federal Deposit Insurance, Federal Reserve, Finance Corporation, finances, financial assets, financial crises, Financial Crisis, Financial Development, financial fragility, financial instability, Financial Institution, financial institutions, financial instruments, financial liberalization, financial markets, financial risk, Financial Sector, Financial Sector Development, financial sectors, financial stability, financial structure, financial system, Financial Systems, fiscal deficit, Fiscal Deficits, fiscal policies, fiscal policy, fixed exchange rates, floating exchange rate, flow of credit, foreign capital, Global Capital, Global Capital Markets, Global Economy, global finance, global financial system, global market, Globalization, government guarantees, government investment, government ownership, Gross Domestic Product, holding, holdings, home market, household saving, income levels, incomes, indebted households, inflation, inflation risk, inflationary pressure, instrument, insurance companies, Insurance Corporation, insurance premium, International Bank, International Business, International Cooperation, International Development, International Economics, International Finance, international financial institutions, international harmonization, international trade, inventory, investment banks, investment funds, Investment Vehicles, labor markets, liquidity, Loan, local market, long-term interest, long-term interest rates, macroeconomic policy, macroeconomic stability, margin requirements, market economies, market economy, maturity, Monetary Authority, Monetary Fund, monetary policy, Mortgage, mortgage-backed securities, opportunity costs, pensions, Political Economy, price risk, price stability, Private banks, private capital, private capital flows, private credit, public debt, Public Finance, public finances, public investment, regulatory constraints, regulatory standards, regulatory structures, regulatory system, Reserve, reserves, return, returns, safety net, safety nets, Savings, savings accounts, savings rate, self-regulation, shareholders, short-term capital, short-term interest rates, solvency, Stock markets, stocks, swap, Swaps, T-Bill, T-Bills, tax, trade finance, trading, trading system, Treasury, Treasury Bills, volatile capital, volatility, withdrawal, world economy
In May 2008, the Commission released the growth report: strategies for sustained growth and inclusive development. At that time, the financial systems of the United States and Europe were under stress. Commodity prices were also spiking, posing particular difficulties for developing countries because of the impact on the poor and on potential future inflation. But no one foresaw the full magnitude of the crisis that erupted in the fall of 2008, more than a year ago. The crisis was a destructive malfunction of the financial sectors of the advanced economies, which spread rapidly to the real economy and to the rest of the globe. Even countries far from the source of the crisis had to cope with capital volatility, tight credit, and rapidly falling trade. At the request of several members of the Commission, Commission held a workshop on the crisis and its implications for developing countries. Commission followed standard procedure of asking for help and insight from a distinguished group of scholars, analysts, and practitioners. This report is an outgrowth of that process. It is an attempt to look at the crisis and its aftermath from the point of view of developing countries. Commission wanted to assess the impact of these events, and determine if the growth strategies recommended needed major revision...

The Social Impact of Financial Crises: Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis

Otker-Robe, Inci; Podpiera, Anca Maria
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.21%
Financial systems can contribute to economic development by providing people with useful tools for risk management, but when they fail to manage the risks they retain, they can create severe financial crises with devastating social and economic effects. The financial crisis that hit the world economy in 2008-2009 has transformed the lives of many individuals and families, even in advanced countries, where millions of people fell, or are at risk of falling, into poverty and exclusion. For most regions and income groups in developing countries, progress to meet the Millennium Development Goals by 2015 has slowed and income distribution has worsened for a number of countries. Countries hardest hit by the crisis lost more than a decade of economic time. As the efforts to strengthen the financial systems and improve the resilience of the global financial system continue around the world, the challenge for policy makers is to incorporate the lessons from the failures to take into consideration the complex linkages between financial...

Safe and Sound Banking : A Role for Countercyclical Regulatory Requirements?

Caprio, Gerard, Jr.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.08%
Most explanations of the crisis of 2007-2009 emphasize the role of the preceding boom in real estate and asset markets in a variety of advanced countries. As a result, an idea that is gaining support among various groups is how to make Basel II or any regulatory regime less pro-cyclical. This paper addresses the rationale for and likely contribution of such policies. Making provisioning (or capital) requirements countercyclical is one way potentially to address pro-cyclicality, and accordingly it looks at the efforts of the authorities in Spain and Colombia, two countries in which countercyclical provisioning has been tried, to see what the track record has been. As explained there, these experiments have been at best too recent and limited to put much weight on them, but they are much less favorable for supporting this practice than is commonly admitted. The paper then addresses concerns and implementation issues with countercyclical capital or provisioning requirements, including why their impact might be expected to be limited...

Do Capital Inflows Boost Growth in Developing Countries?

Calderon, Cesar; Nguyen, Ha
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.14%
This paper examines whether domestic output growth helps attract capital inflows and, in turn, capital inflows help boost output growth in a set of 38 Sub-Saharan African countries. Using a two-step approach to address reverse causality and omitted variable issues, the paper finds that output growth in countries in Sub-Saharan Africa does not attract capital inflows. However, aid and foreign direct investment inflows enhance growth, while sovereign debt inflows do not. A 1 percent increase in the level of real aid inflows raises growth of real output per capita by 0.022 percentage point. For foreign direct investment inflows, the figure is 0.002 percentage point.

Determinants of Long-Term versus Short-Term Bank Credit in EU Countries

Park, Haelim; Ruiz, Claudia; Tressel, Thierry
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Working Paper; Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.27%
This paper empirically examines the determinants of credit at different maturities across European Union countries during the last decade. The paper documents the lengthening of maturities since the early 2000s, and whether these patterns were driven by similar factors in advanced countries and in emerging market countries. Before the 2008 crisis, long-term credit expanded faster than short-term credit in most countries in the sample, and contracted less than short-term credit after 2008. The paper finds that domestic deposits and foreign liabilities were more important sources of funding in emerging market countries than in advanced countries. Moreover, trade openness and initial banking sector depth matter more for emerging market countries than for advanced countries.

Regional Trade Policy Options for Tanzania : The Importance of Services Commitments

Jensen, Jesper; Tarr, David G.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.1%
Despite the growing importance of commitments to foreign investors in services in regional trade agreements, there are no applied general equilibrium models in the literature that assess these regional impacts. This paper develops a 52 sector applied general equilibrium model of Tanzania with foreign direct investment, and uses that model to assess Tanzania's regional and multilateral trade options. The model incorporates the features of the modern theory of international trade that has shown empirically that trade and foreign direct investment can increase productivity, and trade and foreign direct investment with technologically advanced countries is especially valuable for that purpose. To assess the sensitivity of the results to parameter values, the model is executed 30,000 times, and the results are reported as confidence intervals of the sample distributions. The analysis finds that a 50 percent preferential reduction in the ad valorem equivalents of barriers in all business services by Tanzania with respect to its African regional partners would be slightly beneficial for Tanzania. But wider liberalization...

Capital Account Liberalization : Does Advanced Economy Experience Provide Lessons for China?

Chelsky, Jeff
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.13%
The initial post World War II pursuit of capital account liberalization (CAL) by advanced economies was Europe-centric, with roots in a broader political rather than economic agenda of greater European integration. In continental Europe, CAL was addressed mostly through the adoption of multilateral instruments and codes. In contrast, CAL by the United States and United Kingdom was pursued unilaterally, motivated by their status as global reserve currency issuers and global financial centers. China's situation is fundamentally different. China today has no equivalent to the European political motivation for CAL or the domestically driven financial motivation of the United States or the United Kingdom. And while China may have long-term aspirations to be a global reserve currency issuer, the extent to which it internationalizes its currency is constrained by powerful domestic economic and political interests that continue to benefit from an export-led growth model underpinned by a pegged and undervalued exchange rate...

Financial Development in Asia : Beyond Aggregate Indicators

Didier, Tatiana; Schmukler, Sergio L.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.19%
This paper documents the major trends in financial development in Asia since the early 1990s and the spillovers to firms. It compares Asia with advanced and emerging countries and uses both aggregate and disaggregate indicators. Financial systems in Asia remain less developed than in advanced countries but more developed than in Eastern Europe and Latin America. Bond and stock markets play a larger role and institutional investors have gained importance. Nonetheless, capital-raising activity has not expanded. A few large companies capture most of the issuances. Many secondary markets remain illiquid. The public sector captures a significant share of bond markets. The largest advancements in Asia occurred in China and India. But still in these countries, few large companies use capital markets to expand and grow, becoming much larger than nonuser firms. In sum, Asia's financial systems remain less developed than aggregate measures suggest, with few spillovers to many firms.

What Does the Future Hold for the International Banking System?

Dailami, Mansoor; Adams-Kane, Jonathon
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.17%
The international banking industry faces a challenging future, having to consolidate at a time of heightened global financial volatility, anemic growth in advanced countries, and shifting global growth balances. After a long period of sustained expansion and accommodating regulatory treatment, the structure of international banking is changing as global banks' business strategies shift toward fast-growing emerging-market economies. The center of gravity for international lending is shifting, with the role of European banks shrinking and American, Japanese, and emerging-market banks filling in the space. Against this backdrop, the current debate on adding economic stimulus to support the sputtering global economic recovery should consider the possible contractionary impacts of bank deleveraging, even with global interest rates remaining at historically low levels.

Functional Literacy, Heterogeneity and the Returns to Schooling : Multi-Country Evidence

Fasih, Tazeen; Patrinos, Harry Anthony; Sakellariou, Chris
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.12%
Little is known about which of the skills that make up workers' human capital contribute to higher earnings. Past empirical evidence suggest that most of the return to schooling is generated by effects or correlates unrelated to the skills measured by the available tests. This paper uses the International Adult Literacy and the Adult Literacy and Life Skills surveys to obtain multi-country estimates of the components of the return to schooling. The results reveal considerable heterogeneity and a dichotomy between two groups of countries. For a subgroup of educationally advanced countries, nearly half of the return to schooling can be attributed to labor marker-relevant functional literacy skills associated with schooling, while for a subgroup of less educationally advanced countries, such skills account for just over 20 percent of the return to schooling, while the return to schooling mostly reflects the signaling value of schooling.

A Lesson from the South for Fiscal Policy in the US and Other Advanced Countries

Frankel, Jeffrey A.
Fonte: Palgrave Macmillan Publicador: Palgrave Macmillan
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.23%
Two decades ago, many people had drawn a lesson from the 1980s: Japan's variant of capitalism was the best model. Other countries around the world should and would follow it. Japan's admired institutions included relationship banking, keiretsu, bonus compensation for workers, lifetime employment, consensus building, strategic trade policy, administrative guidance, pro-saving policies, and corporate goals of maximizing companies’ industrial capacity or market share. These features were viewed as elements of Japanese economic success that were potentially worthy of emulation. The Japanese model quickly lost its luster in the 1990s, however, when the stock market and real estate market crashed, followed by many years of severe stagnation in the real economy. A decade ago, many thought that the lesson of the 1990s had been that the United States’ variant of capitalism was the best model, and that other countries should and would follow. The touted institutions included arms-length banking, competition for corporate control, Anglo-American securities markets, reliance on accounting firms and rating agencies, derivatives, bonus-compensation for executives, an adversarial legal system, deregulation, pro-consumer credit policies, and corporate goals of maximizing companies’ profits or share price. These features were viewed as elements of US economic success and potentially worthy of emulation. The American model quickly lost its attractiveness in the 2000s...

Does inequality in skills explain inequality of earnings across advanced countries?

Devroye, Dan; Freeman, Richard B.
Fonte: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /11/2002 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.05%
The distribution of earnings and the distribution of skills vary widely among advanced countries, with the major English-speaking countries, the US, UK, and Canada, having much greater inequality in both earnings and skills than continental European Union countries. This raises the possibility that cross-country differences in the distribution of skills determine cross-country differences in earnings inequality. Using the International Adult Literacy Survey, we find that skill inequality explains only about 7% of the cross-country difference in inequality. Most striking, the dispersion of earnings in the US is larger in narrowly defined skill groups than is the dispersion of earnings for European workers overall. The bulk of cross-country differences in earnings inequality occur within skill groups, not between them