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Financial Distortions and the Distribution of Global Volatility

Eden, Maya
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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36.32%
Why are emerging economies excessively vulnerable to shocks to external funding? What was the role of financial flows from emerging to developed economies in setting the stage for the subprime crisis? This paper addresses these questions in a simple general equilibrium framework that emphasizes the aggregate implications of the misallocation of funds on the micro level. The analysis shows that the misallocation of funds amplifies volatility even in a closed economy. Financial integration between relatively distorted emerging economies and relatively undistorted developed economies leads to a further divergence in volatility, thereby providing a new and simple explanation for the divergent trends in output volatility up to the recent crisis. In the integrated environment, cheap funding leads to an endogenous deterioration of the financial system in developed economies. These predictions are consistent with a wide variety of microfoundations, in which distortions cause productive projects to be relatively more sensitive to aggregate shocks. The paper provides some empirical evidence for these microfoundations.

Educational Upgrading and Returns to Skills in Latin America : Evidence from a Supply-Demand Framework, 1990–2010

Gasparini, Leonardo; Galiani, Sebastian; Cruces, Guillermo; Acosta, Pablo
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.42%
It has been argued that a factor behind the decline in income inequality in Latin America in the 2000s was the educational upgrading of its labor force. Between 1990 and 2010, the proportion of the labor force in the region with at least secondary education increased from 40 to 60 percent. Concurrently, returns to secondary education completion fell throughout the past two decades, while the 2000s saw a reversal in the increase in the returns to tertiary education experienced in the 1990s. This paper studies the evolution of wage differentials and the trends in the supply of workers by educational level for 16 Latin American countries between 1990 and 2000. The analysis estimates the relative contribution of supply and demand factors behind recent trends in skill premia for tertiary and secondary educated workers. Supply-side factors seem to have limited explanatory power relative to demand-side factors, and are only relevant to explain part of the fall in wage premia for high-school graduates. Although there is significant heterogeneity in individual country experiences...

International Grain Reserves : And Other Instruments to Address Volatility in Grain Markets

Wright, Brian
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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36.23%
In the long view, recent grain price volatility is not anomalous. Wheat, rice, and maize are highly substitutable in the global market for calories, and when aggregate stocks decline to minimal feasible levels, prices become highly sensitive to small shocks, consistent with storage models. In this decade, stocks have declined due to high income growth and biofuels mandates. Recently, shocks including the Australian drought and biofuels demand boosts due to the oil price spike were exacerbated by a sequence of trade restrictions by key exporters beginning in the thin global rice market in the fall of 2007, which turned market anxiety into panic. To protect vulnerable consumers, countries intervened in storage markets and, if they were exporters, to limit trade access. Recognizing these realities, vulnerable countries are building strategic reserves. The associated expense and negative incentive effects can be controlled if reserves have quantitative targets related to the consumption needs of the most vulnerable...

Capital Requirements and Business Cycles with Credit Market Imperfections

Agénor, P.-R.; Alper, K.; Pereira da Silva, L.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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36.28%
The business cycle effects of bank capital regulatory regimes are examined in a New Keynesian model with credit market imperfections and a cost channel of monetary policy. Key features of the model are that bank capital increases incentives for banks to monitor borrowers, thereby reducing the probability of default, and excess capital generates benefits in terms of reduced regulatory scrutiny. Basel I and Basel II-type regulatory regimes are defined, and the model is calibrated for a middle-income country. Simulations of supply and demand shocks show that, depending on the elasticity that relates the repayment probability to the capital-loan ratio, a Basel II-type regime may be less procyclical than a Basel I-type regime.

Aid for Trade : Matching Potential Demand and Supply

Gamberoni, Elisa; Newfarmer, Richard
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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46.06%
This paper is designed to help both the beneficiary governments and donors of aid-for-trade identify countries that are under-performing in trade and which are receiving less aid for trade than their global performance might otherwise suggest is necessary. The authors develop ten measures of trade performance and capacity (including trade-related infrastructure, institutions, and incentives) to assess potential demand, and then look at country allocations of aid for trade to see which are receiving below-average amounts in the supply of aid for trade - relative to their potential demand. As they design national development strategies, countries may wish to consider giving greater attention to trade and requesting that donors allocate more aid for trade. As part of the analysis, the paper provides a conceptual framework for selecting indicators of trade performance and its policy determinants that the World Trade Organization and its partners might monitor closely as part of the aid for trade initiative.

The Basic Analytics of Access to Financial Services

Beck, Thorsten; de la Torre, Augusto
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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36.33%
Access to financial services, or rather the lack thereof, is often indiscriminately decried as a problem in many developing countries. The authors argue that the "problem of access" should rather be analyzed by identifying different demand and supply constraints. They use the concept of an access possibilities frontier, drawn for a given set of state variables, to distinguish between cases where a financial system settles below the constrained optimum, cases where this constrained optimum is too low, and-in credit services-cases where the observed outcome is excessively high. They distinguish between payment and savings services and fixed intermediation costs, on the one hand, and lending services and different sources of credit risk, on the other hand. The authors include both supply and demand side frictions that can lead to lower access. The analysis helps identify bankable and banked population, the binding constraint to close the gap between the two, and policies to prudently expand the bankable population. This new conceptual framework can inform the debate on adequate policies to expand access to financial services and can serve as the basis for an informed measurement of access.

Roads out of Poverty? Assessing the Links between Aid, Public Investment, Growth, and Poverty Reduction

Agénor, Pierre-Richard; Bayraktar, Nihal El; Aynaoui, Karim
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.32%
The authors develop a macroeconomic framework that captures links between aid, public investment, growth, and poverty. Public investment is disaggregated into education, infrastructure, and health, and affects both aggregate supply and demand. Dutch disease effects are captured by accounting for changes in the relative price of domestic goods. The authors assess the impact of policy shocks on poverty by linking the model to a household survey. They calibrate the model for Ethiopia and simulate the changes in the allocation of aid and public investment. The authors also calculate the amount by which foreign aid should increase to reach the poverty targets of the Millennium Development Goals.

Ethiopia : Explaining Food Price Inflation

Klugman, Jeni
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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36.35%
This study sheds some light on the challenges facing policy makers in Ethiopia, but much remains to be better understood. Over the past three years, food price inflation in Ethiopia has been persistently high, and overall inflation has been in double. While the spike in 2002 can be broadly explained by the drought-induced output shock that year, over the period as a whole, food price - and in particular grain price - trends present a puzzle in several respects. This is a serious concern for policy-makers, not least because the poor spend most of their income on food, and are adversely affected by rising prices. Even in rural areas, it is estimated that about half the population are net buyers of food. The issue of food price inflation has attracted rising concern in the national media and among policy makers, academics and of course the public at large, as well as among development partners. The structure of this note is as: authors review the key features of Ethiopian grain markets, before laying out a basic methodological approach to analyze the drivers of inflation...

R&D and Aggregate Fluctuations

Pourpourides, Panayiotis M.; Artuc, Erhan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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46.34%
The research and development (R&D) sector is considered one of the main driving forces of sustainable growth in the long run. The sector, however, also shows excessive volatility which raises interesting questions regarding the sources of this volatility as well as the nature of the relation between the sector and aggregate fluctuations. Using data from the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Science Foundation, we show that technology innovations are the main source of fluctuations in R&D investment while R&D technology shocks are important in driving aggregate output fluctuations. After taking nominal innovations into consideration, such as shocks in monetary policy and inflation, capital investment-specific shocks explain 70 percent of fluctuations of R&D investment, while R&D technology shocks explain 30 percent of the variation in the output of the non-R&D sector. Technology innovations jointly explain most of the variation of output in the R&D sector and 78 percent of the variation of output in the rest of the economy.

Federative Republic of Brazil - Social Insurance and Labor Supply : Assessing Incentives and Redistribution

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Social Protection Study; Economic & Sector Work
Português
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36.28%
This technical report analyzes the potential effects of the pensions and income protection systems on labor supply decisions and through this channel the coverage and cost of the programs. The report addresses five policy questions: (i) how is the pension system influencing decisions regarding entry into the labor market, sector choice (formal/informal), and retirement? (ii) How are current income protection programs affecting turnover; job search efforts and sector choice?; (iii) Are there interactions between the two systems that aggravate or mitigate incentive effects?; (iv) What is the role of redistributive policies in determining observed outcomes?; and (v) Are there policy interventions that could be considered to correct incentives, while securing adequate income protection for different population groups (including workers in the informal sector)? The report is organized in three sections. This first section discusses the motivations for the study and sets the context by briefly describing some key stylized facts about the Brazilian labor market. The focus is on the composition of the labor force...

Engendering trade

Do, Quy-Toan; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Raddatz, Claudio
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.32%
The authors analyze the interaction between a country's world market integration and its attitude towards gender roles. They discuss both theoretically and empirically how female empowerment is a source of comparative advantage that shapes a country's response to trade opening. Reciprocally, the authors show that as countries integrate into the world economy, the costs and benefits of gender discrimination shift. Their theory goes beyond a potential aggregate wealth effect associated with trade opening, and emphasizes the heterogeneity of impacts. On the one hand, countries in which women are empowered -- measured by fertility rates, female labor force participation or female schooling -- experience an expansion of industries that use female labor relatively more intensively. On the other hand, the gender gap is smaller in countries that export more in relatively female-labor intensive sectors. In an increasingly globalized economy, the road to gender equality is paradoxically very specific to each country s productive structure and exposure to world markets.

Do Remittances Have a Flip Side? A General Equilibrium Analysis of Remittances, Labor Supply Responses, and Policy Options for Jamaica

Bussolo, Maurizio; Medvedev, Denis
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.35%
Econometric analysis has established a negative relationship between labor supply and remittances in Jamaica. The authors incorporate this ex-post evidence in a general equilibrium model to investigate economywide effects of increased remittance inflows. In this model, remittances reduce labor force participation by increasing the reservation wages of recipients. This exacerbates the real exchange rate appreciation, hurting Jamaica's export base and small manufacturing import-competing sector. Within the narrow margins of maneuver of a highly indebted government, the authors show that a revenue-neutral policy response of a simultaneous reduction in payroll taxes and increase in sales taxes can effectively counteract these potentially negative effects of remittances.

Environmental Policy and Time Consistency : Emissions Taxes and Emissions Trading

Kennedy, Peter W.; Laplante, Benoit
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.44%
The authors examine policy problems related to the use of emissions taxes, and emissions trading, two market-based instruments for controlling pollution by getting regulated firms to adopt cleaner technologies. By attaching an explicit price to emissions, these instruments give firms an incentive to continually reduce their volume of emissions. Command, and-control emissions standards create incentives to adopt cleaner technologies only up to the point where the standards are no longer binding (at which point the shadow price on emissions falls to zero). But the ongoing incentives created by the market-based instruments are not necessarily right, either. Time-consistency constraints on the setting of these instruments limit the regulator's ability to set policies that lead to efficiency in adopting technology options. After examining the time-consistency properties of a Pigouvian emissions tax, and of the emissions trading, the authors find that: 1) If damage is linear, efficiency in adopting technologies involves either universal adoption of the new technology...

'Green' Growth, 'Green' Jobs and Labor Markets

Bowen, Alex
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.42%
The term 'green jobs' can refer to employment in a narrowly defined set of industries providing environmental services. But it is more useful for the policy-maker to focus on the broader issue of the employment consequences of policies to correct environmental externalities such as anthropogenic climate change. Most of the literature focuses on direct employment created, with more cursory treatment of indirect and induced job creation, especially that arising from macroeconomic effects of policies. The potential adverse impacts of green growth policies on labor productivity and the costs of employment tend to be overlooked. More attention also needs to be paid in this literature to how labor markets work in different types of economy. There may be wedges between the shadow wage and the actual wage, particularly in developing countries with segmented labor markets and after adverse aggregate demand shocks, warranting a bigger and longer-lasting boost to green projects with high labor content. In these circumstances...

Can the Distributional Impacts of Macroeconomic Shocks be Predicted? A Comparison of the Performance of Macro-Micro Models with Historical Data for Brazil

Ferreira, Francisco H.G.; Leite, Phillippe George; Pereira da Silva, Luiz A.; Picchetti, Paulo
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.46%
What was the impact of Brazil's 1998-99 currency crisis-which resulted in a change of exchange rate regime and a large real devaluation-on the occupational structure of the labor force and the distribution of incomes? Would it have been possible to predict such effects ahead of the crisis? The authors present an integrated macro-micro model of the Brazilian economy in 1998. The model consists of an applied general equilibrium macroeconometric component, connected through a set of linkage aggregate variables to a microeconomic model of household incomes. The authors use this framework to predict the employment and distributional consequences of the 1999 Brazilian currency crisis, based on 1998 household survey data. They then test the predictive performance of the model by comparing its simulated results with the actual household survey data observed in 1999. In addition to the fully integrated macro-micro model, the authors also test the performances of the microeconometric model on its own, and of a "representative household groups" approach. They find that the integrated macro-micro econometric model...

Wind erosion in agricultural soils: an example of limited supply of particles available for erosion

López Sánchez, María Victoria
Fonte: Elsevier Publicador: Elsevier
Tipo: Artículo Formato: 105835 bytes; application/pdf
Português
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36.32%
The definitive version is available at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03418162; Soil erosion by wind is a complex process since many interacting factors are involved. In addition, wind erosion can show a considerable spatial and temporal variability associated with changes in soil surface conditions. During a wind erosion experiment conducted in August 1995 within an agricultural field of Central Aragón (NE Spain) (López et al., “in press”), a decay in dust emission (vertical dust flux) with an increase in wind speed was observed at the end of the experimental period. A further analysis of the evolution of the vertical flux with time in response to changes in soil erodibility is shown in the present study. The analysis is based on the comparison of the measured flux with the potential flux predicted for identical wind conditions assuming that the supply of erodible material at the soil surface was unlimited. The potential flux was estimated by using the dust emission model developed by Marticorena and Bergametti (1995). The model is based on the parameterization of the threshold wind shear velocity as a function of the aggregate size distribution and the roughness length of soil surface. The results indicate that the observed reduction in soil erodibility with time was probably due to variations in the aggregate size distribution and...

On the Welfare Implications of Automation

Eden, Maya; Gaggl, Paul
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Working Paper; Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.23%
This paper establishes that the rise in the income share of information and communication technology accounts for half of the decline in labor income share in the United States. This decline can be decomposed into a sharp decline in the income share of “routine” labor—which is relatively more prone to automation—and a milder rise in the non-routine share. Quantitatively, this decomposition suggests large effects of information and communication technology on the income distribution within labor, but only moderate effects on the distribution of income between capital and labor. A production structure calibrated to match these trends suggests modest aggregate welfare gains from automation.

Are credit crunches supply or demand shocks?

Bijapur, Mohan
Fonte: Social Science Electronic Publishing, Inc. Publicador: Social Science Electronic Publishing, Inc.
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 26/06/2013 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.28%
This paper provides new insights into the relationship between the supply of credit and the macroeconomy. We present evidence that credit shocks constitute shocks to aggregate supply in that they have a permanent effect on output and cause inflation to rise in the short term. Our results also suggest that the effects on aggregate supply have grown stronger in recent decades.

A model of aggregate demand and unemployment

Michaillat, Pascal; Saez, Emmanuel
Fonte: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //2013 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.22%
We present a static model of aggregate demand and unemployment. The economy has a nonproduced good, a produced good, and labor. Product and labor markets have matching frictions. A general equilibrium is a set of prices, market tightnesses, and quantities such that buyers and sellers optimize given prices and tightnesses, and actual tightnesses equal posted tightnesses. In each frictional market,there is one more variable than equilibrium condition. To close the model, we take all prices as parameters. We obtain the following results: (1) unemployment and unsold production prevail in equilibrium; (2) each market can be slack, efficient, or tight if the price is too high, efficient, or too low; (3) product market tightness and sales are positively correlated under aggregate demand shocks but negatively correlated under aggregate supply shocks; (4) transfers from savers to spenders stimulate aggregate demand, product market tightness, and employment; (5) the government-purchase multiplier is positive when the economy is slack, zero when the economy is efficient,and negative when the economy is tight; (6) with unequal distribution of profits and labor income, a wage increase may stimulate aggregate demand and reduce unemployment.

Labour supply and the "law of demand".

Philipp, Thomas
Fonte: London School of Economics and Political Science Thesis Publicador: London School of Economics and Political Science Thesis
Tipo: Thesis; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //1994 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.46%
The well-known "law of supply and demand" says that an increase in the price of a commodity leads to a decrease in the aggregate demand for this commodity and an increase in aggregate supply. There is, however, no theoretical foundation for this "law". Empirical evidence, on the other hand, should be interpreted with care. If one estimates the parameters of certain functional forms for demand and supply functions, then the results may simply be consequences of the parametric assumptions made in estimation. The first chapter of the thesis discusses the implications of the assumption of profit and utility maximisation for the properties of demand and supply functions. It explains why economic rationality on the microlevel does not, in general, lead to macroeconomic regularities and suggests replacing the consumption sector of the neoclassical equilibrium model by a large population of individually small consumers. Such a population will be explored in the second chapter. The chapter is a direct outgrowth of a basic contribution by W. Hildenbrand: "On the Law of Demand", Econometrica 1983. In W. Hildenbrand's model the market demand function is defined by integrating an individual demand function with respect to an exogenously given income distribution. We build into the model an individual labour supply function and then compare the matrix of aggregate income effects studied by W. Hildenbrand with that obtained by integrating the individual demand function with respect to a distribution of wage rates. The empirical part of the thesis analyses the labour supply and earnings data in the U.K. Family Expenditure Survey 1970-85. Using non- parametric smoothing methods...