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Determinantes do sucesso e fracasso das coalizões internacionais nas negociações da Organização Mundial de Comércio (OMC); Determinants of success and failure of the international coalitions in the negotiations of the World Trade Organization (WTO)

Cepaluni, Gabriel
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 23/04/2010 Português
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O principal objetivo deste trabalho é entender como coalizões de países em desenvolvimento são bem-sucedidas nas negociações do GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) e da Organização Mundial de Comércio (OMC). Normalmente, sustenta-se que coalizões temáticas são mais bem-sucedidas do que grupos abrangentes (Higgot e Cooper, 1990; Cooper, Higgot e Nossal, 1990); e que coalizões com maiores recursos de poder são mais bem-sucedidas do que grupos fracos (Narlikar, 2003). Como hipótese alternativa, sugerimos que quanto maior for o grau de abertura comercial da coalizão - ((exportações+importações)/PIB) - maior será a chance de elas serem bemsucedidas nas negociações do GATT/OMC. Utilizaremos uma abordagem multimétodos (qualitativa e quantitativa) para realizar nossa pesquisa. Analisaremos um número (N) médio (entre 28 a 39 casos) de coalizões internacionais para descobrir quais as principais causas dos sucessos e fracassos destes grupos de países. Codificaremos a variável dependente (sucesso versus fracasso) conforme as descrições de casos particulares conduzidos por pesquisadores independentes. A variável independente categórica (coalizões temáticas versus abrangentes) será mensurada segundo procedimento semelhante. Por fim...

How Integrated Is SADC? Trends in Intra-Regional and Extra-Regional Trade Flows and Policy

Behar, Alberto; Edwards, Lawrence
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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Do Southern African Development Community countries trade enough with each other and with the rest of the world? Although its share of world trade has fallen, appropriate benchmarking shows that, controlling for gross domestic product and other characteristics, Southern African Development Community countries have experienced an increase in openness that is comparable to other developing countries. Once market size and geography are taken into account, trade between Southern African Development Community countries is actually high. Southern African Development Community countries also trade more products with each other than they do with the rest of the world. In this sense, and contrary to stylized fears, the Southern African Development Community region is quite integrated. Although the Southern African Development Community has reduced its tariffs, the structure remains complex and could be lowered on intermediates. Other impediments make it costly and difficult to move goods, but are at levels that are comparable with countries at similar levels of development. Although this may be surprising...

The Evolution of Agricultural Trade Flows

Aksoy, M. Ataman; Ng, Francis
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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46.48%
Earlier research showed that during the 1980s and 1990s most of the global agricultural trade expansion took place among the industrial countries and among countries within trade blocs. These were also periods of declining agricultural prices. These prices increased during the 2000s, there were continuous trade reforms, and many developing countries started to support their agricultural sectors. This paper analyzes trade flows during the past two decades, and tries to measure whether all these developments have changed the trade balances and the share of different groups within the global trade flows. In addition, it looks at the trade balances on food to see the impact of these changes on net food importing countries. In conclusion, unlike the case with manufacturing, developing countries have not been able to increase their export shares in agriculture as significantly. They have maintained their trade shares by primarily expanding exports to other developing countries.

Regional Trade Agreements

Freund, Caroline; Ornelas, Emanuel
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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46.32%
This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on regionalism. The formation of regional trade agreements has been, by far, the most popular form of reciprocal trade liberalization in the past 15 years. The discriminatory character of these agreements has raised three main concerns: that trade diversion would be rampant, because special interest groups would induce governments to form the most distortionary agreements; that broader external trade liberalization would stall or reverse; and that multilateralism could be undermined. Theoretically, all of these concerns are legitimate, although there are also several theoretical arguments that oppose them. Empirically, neither widespread trade diversion nor stalled external liberalization has materialized, while the undermining of multilateralism has not been properly tested. There are also several aspects of regionalism that have received too little attention from researchers, but which are central to understanding its causes and consequences.

The Trade Response to Global Downturns : Historical Evidence

Freund, Caroline
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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46.47%
The author examines the impact of historical global downturns on trade flows. The results provide insight into why trade has dropped so dramatically in the current crisis, what is likely to happen in the coming years, how global imbalances are affected, and which regions and industries suffer most heavily. The author finds that the elasticity of global trade volumes to real world GDP has increased gradually from around 2 in the 1960s to above 3 now. The author also finds that trade is more responsive to GDP during global downturns than in tranquil times. The results suggest that the overall drop in real trade this year is likely to exceed 15 percent. There is significant variation across industries, with food and beverages the least affected and crude materials and fuels the most affected. On the positive side, trade tends to rebound very rapidly when the outlook brightens. The author also finds evidence that global downturns often lead to persistent improvements in the ratio of the trade balance to GDP in borrower countries.

Do Migrants Really Foster Trade? The Trade-Migration Nexus, a Panel Approach 1960-2000

Parsons, Christopher R.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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Despite the burgeoning empirical literature providing evidence of a strong and robust positive correlation between trade and migration, doubts persist as to unobserved factors which may be driving this relationship. This paper re-examines the trade-migration nexus using a panel spanning several decades, which comprises the majority of world trade and migration in every decade. First the findings common to the literature are reproduced. Country-pair fixed effects are then used to account for unobserved bilateral factors, the implementation of which removes all of the positive impact of migration on trade. In other words the unobserved factors, a leading candidate for which it is argued is international bilateral ties, are on average strongly and positively correlated with migrant networks. Dividing the world into the relatively affluent North and poorer South, the results show that migrants from either region only affect Northern exports to the South. This is intuitive since in general countries of the North export more differentiated products and information barriers between these regions are greatest. A country-level analysis further shows that migrants may both create and divert trade. Taken as a whole...

Regional Impacts of Russia’s Accession to the World Trade Organization

Rutherford, Thomas; Tarr, David
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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46.43%
In this paper we develop a computable general equilibrium model of the regions of Russia to assess the impact of accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on the regions of Russia. We estimate that the average gain in welfare as a percentage of consumption for the whole country is 7.8 percent (or 4.3 percent of consumption); we estimate that three regions will gain considerably more: Northwest (11.2 percent), St. Petersburg (10.6 percent) and Far East (9.7 percent). We estimate that the Urals will gain only 6.2 percent of consumption, considerably less than the national average. The principal explanation in our central analysis for the differences across regions is the ability of the different regions to benefit from a reduction in barriers against foreign direct investment. The three regions with the largest welfare gains are clearly the regions with the estimated largest shares of multinational investment. But the Urals has attracted relatively little FDI in the service sectors. An additional reason for differences across regions is quantified in our sensitivity analysis: regions may gain more from WTO accession if they can succeed in creating a good investment climate.

International Trade, Security, and Transnational Terrorism : Theory and Empirics

Mirza, Daniel; Verdier, Thierry
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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The authors offer a general analytical framework illustrating the complex two-way interactions between trade and transnational terrorism. Then they survey the recent economic literature in light of this framework by pointing to the importance in empirical studies of (1) controlling appropriately for theses interactions, (2) distinguishing between "source" countries and "target" countries of terrorism, and (3) taking into account the intertemporal persistence of terrorism between specific pairs of countries.

There Goes Gravity : How eBay Reduces Trade Costs

Lendle, Andreas; Schropp, Simon; Olarreaga, Marcelo; Vézina, Pierre-Louis
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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46.46%
This paper compares the impact of distance, a standard proxy for trade costs, on eBay and offline international trade flows. It considers the same set of 62 countries and the same basket of goods for both types of transactions, and finds the effect of distance to be on average 65 percent smaller on the eBay online platform than offline. Using interaction variables, this difference is explained by a reduction of information and trust frictions enabled through online technology. The analysis estimates the welfare gains from a reduction in offline frictions to the level prevailing online at 29 percent on average. Remote countries that are little known, with weak institutions, high levels of income inequality, inefficient ports, and little internet penetration benefit the most, as online markets help overcome government and offline market failures.

Evaluating Aid for Trade : A Survey of Recent Studies

Cadot, Olivier; Fernandes, Ana; Gourdon, Julien; Mattoo, Aaditya; de Melo, Jaime
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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The demand for accountability in aid-for-trade is increasing but monitoring has focused on case studies and impressionistic narratives. The paper reviews recent evidence from a wide range of studies, recognizing that a multiplicity of approaches is needed to learn what works and what does not. The review concludes that there is some support for the emphasis on reducing trade costs through investments in hard infrastructure (like ports and roads) and soft infrastructure (like customs). But failure to implement complementary reform -- especially the introduction of competition in transport services -- may erode the benefits of these investments. Direct support to exporters does seem to lead to diversification across products and destinations, but it is not yet clear that these benefits are durable. In general, it is difficult to rely on cross-country studies to direct aid-for-trade. More rigorous impact evaluation is an underutilized alternative, but situations of clinical interventions in trade are rare and adverse incentives (because of agency problems) and costs (because of the small size of project) are a hurdle in implementation.

Assessing the Impact of Communication Costs on International Trade

Fink, Carsten; Mattoo, Aaditya; Neagu, Ileana Cristina
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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Recent research suggests that trade costs influence the pattern of specialization and trade, but there is limited empirical research on the determinants of trade costs. The existing literature identifies a range of barriers that separate nations, but then typically focuses only on transport costs. Although communication costs figure prominently in intuitive explanations and casual observations, they have played little role in the formal analysis of trade costs. The authors seek to examine whether this neglect matters, and whether the inclusion of the magnitude and variation of communication costs across partner countries can add value to existing explanations of the pattern of trade. The authors develop a simple multi-sector model of "impeded" trade that generates hypotheses in a gravity-type estimation framework. The main proxies for bilateral communication costs are the per-minute country-to-country calling prices charged in the importing and exporting countries. The use of bilateral variations in prices yields estimates that are superior to the ones obtained from country-specific measures of communication infrastructure used in previous studies. The authors find that international variations in communication costs have a significant influence on bilateral trade flows...

Kazakhstan Trade Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Relatório
Português
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The main message of this report is that if Kazakhstan wants to take advantage of global integration and diversification opportunities, the government needs to improve its trade policy framework, its management, and its regulations. It is also finalizing accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) while its trade strategy includes a number of free trade agreements to be negotiated. It is an active member of the Central Asia Region Economic Cooperation (CAREC). This report is composed of three policy notes that discuss how to improve the trade policy framework, management, and regulations: note one is on the trade policy framework and recommends joining the WTO on a tariff schedule that is more liberal than Russia’s; note two postulates that to benefit more fully from the WTO membership and future regional or bilateral agreements, the institutional framework for trade policy management will need a clearer strategic vision, better coordination within the government and with private sector, and enhanced human capacity; and note three suggests that for the private sector to benefit from global integration and diversification...

Domestic Trade Impacts of the Expansion of the National Expressway Network in China

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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China's outstanding achievements in economic growth and poverty reduction over the last fifteen years have been well documented. A major element of that growth consisted of the development of its infrastructure, particularly transport. All modes of transport have seen their networks expanded, to provide the infrastructure needed to support the broader development goals. Among the surface modes (excluding pipelines or waterways), road transport has seen its share grow from 45 percent to 60 percent in terms of passenger-km and from 24 percent to 30 percent in terms of freight ton-km. From 1990 to 2005, during the period of the 8th, 9th and 10th Five-Year Plans, China completed nearly 41,000 km of high-grade tolled expressways comprising the national trunk highway system (NTHS), or as it is now called, the national expressway network (NEN). During this period approximately 400,000 km of local and township roads were also improved. This was achieved by investing upwards of US$40 billion per year, with about one third of that amount allocated to development of the NEN. Behind this overall strategy...

Do Private Inspection Programs Affect Trade Facilitation?

Velea, Irina; Cadot, Olivier; Wilson, John S.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
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Private inspection of international shipments has been used over the last half-century for a variety of purposes. These include prevention of capital flight and improvement of import duty collection, among others. The existing literature has failed to find much impact of these inspection programs on collected tariff revenue or corruption at the border. This paper explores the "facilitation" effect of private inspection programs on trade. The results indicate that private inspection has a positive and significant trade-facilitation effect. These programs raise import volumes for countries using them by approximately 2 to 10 percent. The findings here also suggest that the benefit of private inspection of imports may be associated with reforms and best practices applied by private inspection firms. Private firms' inspection of cargo may promote faster clearance times and process reliability, rather than improved tax collection.

Over the Hedge : Exchange Rate Volatility, Commodity Price Correlations, and the Structure of Trade

Raddatz, Claudio
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
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46.45%
A long empirical literature has examined the idea that, in the absence of hedging mechanisms, currency risk should have an adverse effect on the export volumes of risk averse exporters. But there are no clear conclusions from this literature, and the current consensus seems to be that there is at most a weak negative effect of exchange rate volatility on aggregate trade flows. However, most of this literature examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on aggregate trade flows, implicitly assuming a uniform impact of this volatility on exporters across sectors. This paper explots the fact that, if exchange rate volatility is detrimental for trade, firms exporting goods that offer a natural hedge against exchange rate fluctuations -- i.e. those whose international price is negatively correlated with the nominal exchange rate of the country where they operate -- should be relatively benefited in environments of high exchange rate volatility, and capture a larger share of the country's export basket. This hypothesis is tested using detailed data on the composition of trade of 132 countries at 4-digit SITC level. The results show that the commodities that offer natural hedge capture a larger share of a country's export basket when the exchange rate is volatile...

The Recent Trade Performance Of Sub-Saharan African Countries : Cause for Hope or More of the Same?; La recente performance des pays de l'Afrique Subsaharienne en terme de commerce international

Ng, Francis; Yetes, Alexander J.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
Português
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This study examines empirical information for major Sub-Saharan African countries and provides an analysis of whether recent trade and economic policy changes by some Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries enhanced their international competitiveness and improved their export performance. Specifically, it addresses the following points: (i) have recent exports from the Sub-Saharan African countries recently grown at a relatively faster pace and now come close to matching the average growth in world trade? (ii) Studies show Sub-Saharan African countries have been increasingly marginalized in world trade, as reflected in secular declines in their shares of this exchange and in shares of their major traditional exports (Ng and Yeats 1997). Does the available evidence indicate these trends have been reversed? (iii) Aggregate analyses of the composition of African countries' exports typically reveals a structure often held to be detrimental to industrialization and growth. African exports are typically concentrated in a relatively few primary commodities whose unstable prices (and export revenues) are thought to make development planning difficult. Does the available evidence indicate that shifts are occurring in the structure of exports toward products (like labor-intensive manufactures) that could play a more positive role in improving the prospects for industrialization and growth? (iv) Are positive micro-level changes occurring which are not reflected in aggregate trade statistics? Specifically...

Turkey’s Evolving Trade Integration into Pan-European Markets

Kaminski, Bartlomiej; Ng, Francis
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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46.47%
This is an empirical paper seeking to identify the mode of Turkey's integration into global markets in general, and pan-European markets in particular, as revealed in its trade performance. The analysis provides empirical support to the following observations. First, thanks to steady expansion of trade in goods and services since the mid-1980s, Turkey has become highly integrated into the world economy. Second, Turkey's export performance in 1996-2004 in EU markets bears strong similarities to the aggregate performance of new EU members from Central Europe (EU-8). Similarities include dynamics, similar factors responsible for the increased presence in EU markets, factor content, and the role of "producer-driven" network trade. Turkey, together with Hungary, the Czech Republic, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Estonia, and Poland, stands as one of the top performers in "producer-driven" network trade indicating participation in a new global division of labor based on production fragmentation. The available evidence suggests an economic success story in the making. Export expansion owes a lot to improved policy environment and domestic liberalization. It is rather telling that the recent expansion has coincided with the implementation of most of the provisions of the EU-Turkey Customs Union Agreement...

Facilitating International Production Networks : The Role of Trade Logistics

Saslavsky, Daniel; Shepherd, Ben
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.47%
This paper shows that networked trade in parts and components is more sensitive to the importing country's logistics performance than is trade in final goods. In the baseline specification, the difference between the two trade semi-elasticities is around 45 percent, which suggests that the effect is quantitatively important. In addition, the analysis finds that logistics performance is particularly important for trade in the Asia-Pacific region, which is exactly where the emergence of international production networks has been most pronounced over recent years. The results suggest that policymakers can support the development of international production networks by helping improve trade logistics performance.

Export Performance and Trade Facilitation Reform : Hard and Soft Infrastructure

Portugal-Perez, Alberto; Wilson, John S.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.51%
The authors estimate the impact of aggregate indicators of "soft" and "hard" infrastructure on the export performance of developing countries. They build four new indicators for 101 countries over the period 2004-07. Estimates show that trade facilitation reforms do improve the export performance of developing countries. This is particularly true with investment in physical infrastructure and regulatory reform to improve the business environment. Moreover, the findings provide evidence that the marginal effect of infrastructure improvement on exports appears to be decreasing in per capita income. In contrast, the impact of information and communications technology on exports appears increasingly important for richer countries. Drawing on estimates, the authors compute illustrative exports growth for developing countries and ad-valorem equivalents of improving each indicator halfway to the level of the top performer in the region. As an example, improving the quality of physical infrastructure so that Egypt's indicator increases half-way to the level of Tunisia would increase exports by 10.8 percent. This is equivalent to a 7.4 percent cut in tariffs faced by Egyptian exporters across importing markets.

Trade and Financial Development

Do, Quy-Toan; Levchenko, Andrei A.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.52%
The differences in financial development between advanced and developing countries are pronounced. It has been observed, both theoretically and empirically, that these differences in countries' financial systems are a source of comparative advantage and trade. This paper points out that to the extent a country's financial development is endogenous, it will in turn be influenced by trade. The paper builds a model in which a country's financial development is an equilibrium outcome of the economy's productive structure: in countries with large financially intensive sectors financial systems are more developed. When a wealthy and a poor country open to trade, the financially dependent sectors grow in the wealthy country, and so does the financial system. By contrast, as the financially intensive sectors shrink in the poor country, demand for external finance decreases and the domestic financial system deteriorates. This paper describes the authors' test model using data on financial development for a sample of 77 countries. The authors find that the main predictions of the model are borne out in the data: trade openness is associated with faster financial development in wealthier countries...