After 20 years of neglect by international donors, agriculture is now again in the headlines because higher food prices are increasing food insecurity and poverty. In the coming years it will be essential to increase food productivity and production in developing countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and with smallholders. This however requires finding viable solutions to a number of complex technical, institutional and policy issues including land markets, research on seeds and inputs; agricultural extension; credit; rural infrastructure; storage; connection to markets; rural nonfarm employment and food price stabilization. This paper reviews what the economic literature has to say on these topics. It discusses in turn the role played by agriculture in the development process and the interactions between agriculture and other economic sectors; the determinants of the Green Revolution and discuss the foundations of agricultural growth; issues of income diversification by farmers; approaches to rural development; and finally issues of international trade policy and food security which are at the root of the crisis in agricultural commodity volatility in the past few years.

The 2007-2008 upsurge in agricultural commodity prices gave rise to widespread concern about investors causing a "global land rush". Large land deals can provide opportunities for better access to capital, transfer of technology, and advances in productivity and employment generation. But they carry risks of dispossession and loss of livelihoods, corruption, deterioration in local food security, environmental damage, and long-term social polarization that led some countries to recently pass legislation restricting foreign land acquisition. To stimulate evidence-based debate, this paper explores determinants of foreign land acquisition for large-scale agriculture. It quantifies demand for land deals, showing it focused on Africa where land expansion is about 20 times the level it was in the past. The analysis uses data on bilateral investment relationships, together with newly constructed indicators of agro-ecological suitability in non-protected and forested areas with low population density as well as land rights security. It estimates gravity models that can help identify determinants of foreign land acquisition dedicated to large-scale agriculture. The results confirm the central role of agro-ecological potential as a pull factor. In contrast to the literature on foreign investment in general...

The 2006-08 commodity price boom was one of the longest and broadest of the post-World War II period. Apart from strong and sustained economic growth, the recent boom was fueled by numerous factors, including low past investment in extractive commodities, weak dollar, fiscal expansion, and lax monetary policy in many countries, and investment fund activity. At the same time, the combination of adverse weather conditions, the diversion of some food commodities to the production of biofuels, and government policies (including export bans and prohibitive taxes) brought global stocks of many food commodities down to levels not seen since the early 1970s. This in turn accelerated the price increases that eventually led to the 2008 rally. The weakening and/or reversal of these factors coupled with the financial crisis that erupted in September 2008 and the subsequent global economic downturn, induced sharp price declines across most commodity sectors. Yet, the main price indices are still twice as high compared to their 2000 real levels...

Soaring commodity prices in 2007 and 2008 raised concerns that volatility was also rising, which would have implications for welfare and therefore for the design of public policy interventions. The literature focuses on trends in commodity prices rather than their volatility characteristics. This paper contributes by examining commodity price volatility with a newly compiled monthly panel dataset on 45 individual commodity prices from the end of the 18th century until today. The main conclusions are: the timing and number of breaks in volatility vary considerably across individual commodities, cautioning against generalizations based on the use of commodity price indices; the three most significant breaks common to most commodities are the two world wars and the collapse of the Bretton-Woods system; and structural breaks marking increased price volatility are followed by breaks marking declines in volatility so that there is no upward or downward trend in volatility over time.

Structural reform of the economies of developing countries has been in the forefront of development interest since the early 1980s. This interest stems from a recognition that the structures and institutions of these countries are critical to any enhancement of economic and social development. One of the key reforms has been that of primary commodity markets, especially agricultural commodity markets, because many developing countries, including the poorest, depend heavily on these for foreign exchange earnings and employment, and hence for poverty reduction. This report focuses on the political economy and institutional aspects of agricultural commodity market reform. In order to explore in detail factors that are critical to the processes, consequences, and substance of reform, the authors have focused the analysis and evaluation on five commodities important in many developing countries, specifically cocoa, coffee, sugar, cotton, and cereal. In doing so, they highlight important lessons on how agricultural sector reform can be launched and implemented. Some of the factors identified in the report as being key to successful reform include the recognition that commodity markets often affect communities and even politics...

One area of weakness in current agricultural policy work in Vietnam is the lack of a clear understanding of both the private profitability of farmers for different crop activities and the social profitability of such activities. Agricultural performance is thus gauged in physical terms (i.e. yields and the volume of aggregate output) rather than in financial or economic terms. This has hampered efforts to compare and contrast the impacts and effectiveness of alternative policy and program measures. Comparative metrics for different crops and farm management systems have been lacking. The main objectives of this paper are: (i) to describe the Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) methodology and how to interpret key financial and economic indicators; (ii) to document the underlying assumptions used for the analysis; and (iii) to provide a summary and brief interpretation of the main quantitative results and outcome of selected sensitivity tests. As a step towards improved sector planning, this paper utilizes the PAM to analyze various farm management systems for rice...

This report is organized into three main sections. Section one sets out the context by describing the particular challenges and opportunities related to financing agriculture, followed by defining the target group of agricultural SME s. Section two describes a set of innovative financing models. Section three then provides a framework for an indicative assessment of these models by gathering and forming observations from the case studies. The model observations are then highlighted in three types of country contexts in which bankers in developing countries may find themselves. Preliminary assessment results are presented. The report concludes with key lessons learned on innovative agricultural financing, relevant case studies, and an outlook on further work in this area. Annexes present methodologies and case studies representing the various models.

This book examines the issue of price volatility in agricultural commodities markets and how this phenomenon has evolved in recent years. The factors underlying the price spike of 2007-08 appear to be global and macroeconomic in nature, including the rapid growth in demand by developing countries, the international financial crisis, and exchange rate movements. Some of these factors are new, appearing as influences on price volatility only in the last decade. Although volatility has always been a feature of agricultural commodity markets, the evidence suggests that volatility has increased in certain commodity markets. A growing problem is that agricultural price shocks and volatility disrupt agricultural markets, economic incentives and incomes. With increased globalization and integration of financial and energy markets with agricultural commodity markets, the relationships between markets are expanding and becoming more complex. When a crisis such as a regional drought, food safety scare or a financial crisis hits a particular market, policy-makers often do not know the extent to which it will impact on other markets and affect producer, consumer and trader decisions. Including contributions from experts at the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations...

Since the early 1980s, dramatic changes in export commodity markets, shocks associated with resulting price declines, and changing views on the role of the state have ushered in widespread reforms to agricultural commodity markets in Africa. The reforms significantly reduced government participation in the marketing and pricing of commodities. Akiyama, Baffes, Larson, and Varangis examine the background, causes, process, and consequences of these reforms and derive lessons for successful reforms from experiences in markets for four commodities important to Africa-cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar. The authors' commodity focus highlights the special features associated with these markets that affect the reform process. They complement the current literature on market reforms in Africa, where grain-market studies are more common. The authors suggest that the types of market interventions prior to reform are more easily classified by crop than by country. Consequently, there are significant commodity-specific differences in the initial conditions and in the outcomes of reforms related to these markets. But there are general lessons as well. The authors find that the key consequences of reform have been significant changes in or emergence of marketing institutions and a significant shift of political and economic power from the public to the private sector. In cases where interventions were greatest and reforms most complete...

The issue of regional differences in development has moved to the center of the development debate in Sri Lanka, partly after the release of regional poverty data. For the past many years, there have been significant and increasing differences between the Western province and the rest of the country in terms of per capita income levels, growth rates of per capita income, poverty rates, and the structure of provincial economies. The structure of the report is as follows: chapter two looks at the poverty/growth/agriculture nexus in the poorest regions of Sri Lanka. It presents data on poverty and growth in the poorest provinces, especially Uva and Sabaragamuwa, and provides an analysis of factors associated with the rural poor. Chapter three provides an overview and brief discussion of the Government's agricultural policies and programs. Chapter four identifies constraints that restrict farmers' incomes in the four poorest provinces. It presents results from extensive stakeholder consultations carried out in these provinces. These results are complemented with findings from the 2005 rural investment climate assessment to identify some of the general constraints in the agriculture sector in Sri Lanka. Chapter five presents the findings of an agricultural resource audit of small-scale farmers in the poorest regions that analyzed production...

For decades the world's agricultural markets have been highly distorted by national government policies, but very differently for different commodities. Hence a weighted average across countries of nominal rates of assistance or consumer tax equivalents for a product can be misleading as an indicator of the trade or welfare effects of policies affecting that product's global market. This is especially the case when some countries tax and others subsidize its production or consumption. This article develops a new set of more-satisfactory indicators for that purpose, drawing on the recent literature on trade restrictiveness indexes. It then exploits a global agricultural distortions database recently compiled by the World Bank to generate the first set of estimates of those two indicators for each of 28 key agricultural commodities from 1960 to 2004, based on a sample of 75 countries that together account for more than three-quarters of the world's production of those agricultural commodities. These reveal the considerable extent of reforms in agricultural policies of developing as well as high-income countries over the past two decades.

This paper considers the welfare and distributional consequences of higher relative food prices in rural India through the lens of a specific-factors, general equilibrium, trade model applied at the district level. The evidence shows that nominal wages for manual labor both within and outside agriculture respond elastically to increases in producer prices; that is, wages rose faster in rural districts growing more of those crops with large price run-ups over 2004-09. Accounting for such wage gains, the analysis finds that rural households across the income spectrum benefit from higher agricultural commodity prices. Indeed, rural wage adjustment appears to play a much greater role in protecting the welfare of the poor than the Public Distribution System, India's giant food-rationing scheme. Moreover, policies, like agricultural export bans, which insulate producers (as well as consumers) from international price increases, are particularly harmful to the poor of rural India. Conventional welfare analyses that assume fixed wages and focus on households' net sales position lead to radically different conclusions.

A commodity exchange is a goods and financial market where different groups of participants trade commodities and commodity-linked contracts, with the underlying objective of transferring exposure to commodity price risks (UNCTAD). A commodity exchange that only trades goods is known as a physical or 'cash or forward' market, while the exchange that trades price derivatives is known as financial or 'futures and options' market (see Glossary for detailed definitions). Some agriculture commodity exchanges have both. Agricultural commodity exchanges date as far back as the early 18th century. Modern exchanges, notably the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was created in 1848, recently merged with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), is one the oldest and most successful futures exchanges worldwide. Today several agricultural commodity exchanges exist throughout the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region. They facilitate trade and financial products in countries whose economies have a relatively large share of primary and secondary agricultural activities or either account for auctions on substantial food imports. This report looks at the current development of agricultural commodity exchanges in the LAC region and offers public policy recommendations that can foster the development of such exchange markets.

Geopolitical concerns in Iraq and Ukraine/Russia earlier in the year put upward pressure on oil prices during the second quarter. As tensions moderate, oil prices are expected to decline in 2015. Metal prices eased during the 2014Q2 due to supply response from earlier investments and weakening demand, especially by China. Weather concerns (often linked to likely El Niño) induced price increases in some grains earlier in the year but recently prices have weakened as supplies for the upcoming, 2014/15, season are deemed adequate to keep stocks at reasonable levels. Agricultural prices are expected to decline slightly in 2015. The key commodity price indices have been broadly stable during 2014Q2. Energy and agricultural prices increased 1 percent each, on geopolitical and weather-related concerns, respectively; while metal prices declined 1 percent on signs of Chinese demand weakness. The increase in beverage prices was driven by a rally in coffee prices due to dry weather in Brazil world's largest coffee supplier. Precious metal prices changed little while fertilizer prices declined 6.5 percent due to weakness in natural gas prices.

Indonesia is one of the largest commodity exporters in the world, and given its mineral potential and expected commodity price trends, it could and should expand its leading position. Commodities accounted for one fourth of Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and more than one fifth of total government revenue in 2007. The potential for further commodity growth is considerable. Indonesia is the largest producer of palm oil in the world (export earnings totaled almost US$9 billion in 2007 and employment 3.8 million full-time jobs) and the sector has good growth prospects. It is also one of the countries with the largest mining potential in view of its second-largest copper reserves and third-largest coal and nickel reserves in the world. This report consists of seven chapters. The first six chapters present an examination and an analysis of the factors driving increased commodity prices, price forecasts, economic impact of commodity price increases, effective price stabilization policies, and insights from Indonesia's past growth experience. The final chapter draws on the findings of the previous chapters and suggests a development strategy for Indonesia in the context of high commodity prices. This section summarizes the contents of the chapters and their main findings.

The agri-food sector is an important part of the Ukrainian economy. Agriculture could make an even larger contribution to economic growth and the vitality of rural areas in Ukraine than is currently the case. Ukraine has the agro-climatic potential to be a major player on world agricultural markets. Agricultural competitiveness in Ukraine also suffers from inadequate systems to test and document food product quality and food safety. Ukraine's food safety control system is complicated and characterized by fragmented and often overlapping jurisdictions. Many standards applied in Ukraine are inconsistent with World Trade Organization (WTO) provisions, with standards established by the responsible international bodies and with accepted practices in international trade. Without improvements towards an efficient and internationally recognized food quality and safety control system, Ukrainian agriculture will find it increasingly difficult to sell into international markets and its products will not be able to command top prices. The ban on Ukrainian meat...

The overall objective of the Comprehensive Assessment of the Agricultural Sector (CAAS) is to provide an evidence base to enable appropriate strategic policy responses by the Government of Liberia (GoL) and its development partners in order to maximize the contribution of the agriculture sector to the Government's overarching policy objectives. Given the strong relationship between growth in agricultural productivity and poverty reduction, future efforts in Liberia need to focus on productivity enhancing measures with a pro-poor focus that increase incomes. Growth based on extensification using traditional technologies is generally not profitable and has damaging implications for the environment. Given the low level of assets possessed by most Liberians, future efforts need to address the question of access to assets (i.e. land, knowledge and inputs) in addition to providing opportunities and an enabling environment. Liberia needs to make concerted efforts to preserve and consolidate its emerging stability by focusing on interventions to ensure food security and poverty alleviation at the community and household levels. Improving access to food and generating sustainable...

This paper concerns an NGO intervention in agricultural commodity markets known as Fairtrade. Fairtrade pays producers a minimum unit price and provides capacity building support to member cooperative organizations. Fairtrade's organizational capacity support targets those factors believed to reduce the commodity producer's share of returns. Specifically, Fairtrade justifies its intervention in markets like coffee by claiming that market power and a lack of capacity in producer organizations 'marks down' the prices producers receive. As the market share of Fairtrade coffee grows in importance, its intervention in commodity markets is of increasing interest. Using an original data set collected from fieldwork in Costa Rica, this paper assesses the role of Fairtrade in overcoming the market factors it claims limits producer returns. Features of the Costa Rican input market for coffee permit a generalization of the results. The empirical results find that market power is a limiting factor in the Costa Rican market and that Fairtrade does improve the efficiency of cooperatives, thereby increasing the returns to producers. These results do not depend on the minimum price policy of Fairtrade and therefore can inform on its organizational support activities. Finally...

The aim of the expert workshop “Medium-term outlook for the EU agricultural commodity market”, held in October 2015 in Brussels, was to present and discuss the preliminary results of the outlook of the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development (DG AGRI) on European Union (EU) agricultural market developments. Participants included high-level policy makers and modelling and market experts and the workshop provided a forum in which to present and discuss recent and projected developments in the EU agricultural and commodity markets, and to outline the reasons behind observed and prospective developments. This year, the “Medium-term outlook for the EU agricultural commodity market” workshop included a special focus on the impact, on agricultural markets, of macroeconomic variables, such as changes in the euro exchange rate, changes in the Brent crude oil price and changes in animal food consumption in China. This document summarises the presentations and discussions on the macroeconomic and energy assumptions associated with this outlook, and on each of the EU agricultural markets addressed, namely the biofuel market, the arable crop market, the sugar market, the milk and dairy market, and the meat market. To conclude...

In this paper we investigate the adaptive market efficiency of the agricultural commodity futures market, using a sample of eight futures contracts. Using a battery of nonlinear tests, we uncover the nonlinear serial dependence in the returns series. We run the Hinich portmanteau bicorrelation test to uncover the moments in which the nonlinear serial dependence, and therefore adaptive market efficiency, occurs for our sample.