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Análise do armazenamento de arroz no Brasil sob condições de incerteza através de um modelo dinâmico de expectativas racionais; Dynamic rational expectation storage models with uncertanty conditions applied to Brazilian rice market

Bragagnolo, Cassiano
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 04/07/2006 Português
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46.41%
O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar o armazenamento do arroz no Brasil, propondo modelos para tomada de decisão quanto à formação de estoques. Uma vez conhecidos estes modelos é possível analisar previamente as intervenções pretendidas pelo governo. Para tanto se partiu da hipótese de que é possível representar o mercado de arroz no Brasil através de um modelo dinâmico de expectativas racionais capaz de captar o efeito da importação do produto e de algumas políticas de sustentação de preço ao produtor adotadas pelo governo brasileiro. A proposta metodológica para a estimação do modelo segue a abordagem de programação dinâmica. Foram desenvolvidos algoritmos que representam o mercado de arroz no Brasil em uma situação de mercado fechado sem intervenção do governo, mercado aberto sem intervenção do governo, mercado fechado com intervenção do governo via Prêmio de Escoamento do Produto - PEP, mercado fechado com intervenção do governo via Aquisição do Governo Federal - AGF mercado aberto com intervenção do governo via PEP, mercado aberto com intervenção do governo via AGF. Os métodos utilizados para solução exigem que sejam conhecidos as funções de demanda e oferta de área, o custo unitário de armazenamento...

The Role of Area-Yield Crop Insurance Program face to the Mid-Term Review of Common Agricultural Policy

Serrão, Amilcar J
Fonte: AgEcon Search - University of Minnesota - Agricultural Applied Economics Association Publicador: AgEcon Search - University of Minnesota - Agricultural Applied Economics Association
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.18%
The mid-term review of Common Agricultural Policy increases the complexity of the decision-making process of farmers. The subsidies are substituted for a single decoupled income payment. The farmers decide what crops and livestock will produce based on climate, soils conditions and agricultural market signals and not based on subsidies granted to each one of the crop and livestock activities. The area-yield crop insurance program might have an important role on increasing production and facing natural catastrophes. This paper studies the introduction of the area-yield crop insurance program to reduce the risk originating from the variability of farmers’ income and to compare this alternative with other agricultural policy alternatives in the context of the mid-term review of Common Agricultural Policy. The comparison of the introduction of the area-yield crop insurance program with other agricultural policy alternatives is made through an approach using concepts of the Cumulative Prospect Theory, because besides defining that the results are appraised in agreement with changes in relation to the initial wealth, this theory treats in a differentiated way gains and losses. A discrete sequential stochastic programming model with five states of nature is developed to study agricultural policy alternatives. The objective function is constituted by a set of functions (the value function and the probability weighting function) differentiated for gains and losses...

Implications of the Doha Market Access Proposals for Developing Countries

Laborde, David; Martin, Will; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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46.47%
This paper uses detailed data on bound and applied tariffs to assess the consequences of the World Trade Organization s December 2008 Modalities for tariffs levied and faced by developing countries, and the welfare implications of these reforms. The authors find that the tiered formula for agriculture would halve tariffs in industrial countries and lower them more modestly in developing countries. In non-agriculture, the formulas would reduce the tariff peaks facing developing countries and cut average industrial country tariffs by more than a third. The authors use a political-economy framework to assess the implications of flexibilities for the size of the tariff cuts and find they are likely to substantially reduce the outcome. However, despite the flexibilities, there are likely to be worthwhile gains, with applied tariffs facing developing countries cut by about 20 percent in agriculture and 27 percent in non-agriculture, and sizeable cuts in tariffs facing industrial countries. The welfare impacts of reform are evaluated using a new approach to aggregation that improves on the traditional...

India - Taking Agriculture to the Market

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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46.59%
Policy makers in India recognize the importance o f well-functioning markets to agricultural growth, food security, and broad-based rural development. Markets facilitate the commercialization and diversification of farming, and they are essential for efficiently bringing food and agricultural products to domestic and international consumers. Well functioning domestic markets can reduce the cost of food and assure stability of supply, which as the recent global food crisis has highlighted, are key to assuring the food security of poor and non-poor households. They also open opportunities for greater value-addition and employment throughout the economy. The rapid growth of the Indian economy is bringing new forces for change in agricultural marketing and processing systems. Changes in consumer demand are fueled by rising incomes, increasing urbanization, a growing middle class demanding more diversified and higher-quality food, more working women demanding access to prepared or processed foods and more convenient shopping under one roof...

Reforming Agricultural Trade for Developing Countries : Volume 2. Quantifyng the Impact of Multilateral Trade Reform

McCalla, Alex F.; Nash, John
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Português
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46.41%
Reforming agricultural trade for developing countries is a two-volume set. The first volume is subtitled Key issues for a pro- development outcome of the Doha Round, and it is focused on specific concerns that are being encountered in the agricultural negotiations, and on strategies for dealing with them to arrive at a final agreement that will significantly spur growth and reduce poverty in developing countries. The companion volume is subtitled Quantifying the impact of multilateral trade reform. It comprises chapters that take different approaches to modeling trade reform and quantifying the resulting benefits and costs to various players in the negotiations. The study explains the differences in results that come out of these different approaches, and compares them to some other recent estimates of the gains from global trade reform.

Macedonia, Former Yugoslav Republic of : Analysis of the Agricultural Support Programs

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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46.45%
The report is structured to allow readers familiar with Macedonia s agriculture sector to quickly grasp the essentials needed to improve the sector, as well as to inform a general audience on how to address the challenges of a modern European Union (EU)-aspiring state. Chapter two provides an in-depth analysis of the sectoral background, illustrating the main characteristics and challenges of Macedonia s agriculture sector. The illustration takes an integrated approach to the sector, covering a vast range of inter-related topics including the prominence of the sector not only in terms of its economic and social contribution but also its implications for trade, the urban-rural poverty gap and shared prosperity, farm structure, climate adaptation, and capacity building. Chapter three draws on lessons from the European Union (EU) and provides a framework to analyze Macedonia s agricultural support programs. Further, the chapter provides a primer on the EU s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and its measures to support agriculture. Chapter four presents concise empirical evidence of the coverage and institutional capacity of the agricultural programs in Macedonia under both pillar one and pillar two measures. Chapter five then builds on the primary diagnostic set out in the previous chapters and critically examines the alignment of Macedonia s agricultural programs with the government s stated objectives of poverty reduction...

Innovative Agricultural SME Finance Models

Global Partnership for Financial Inclusion; International Finance Corporation
Fonte: International Finance Corporation, Washington, DC Publicador: International Finance Corporation, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.38%
This report is organized into three main sections. Section one sets out the context by describing the particular challenges and opportunities related to financing agriculture, followed by defining the target group of agricultural SME s. Section two describes a set of innovative financing models. Section three then provides a framework for an indicative assessment of these models by gathering and forming observations from the case studies. The model observations are then highlighted in three types of country contexts in which bankers in developing countries may find themselves. Preliminary assessment results are presented. The report concludes with key lessons learned on innovative agricultural financing, relevant case studies, and an outlook on further work in this area. Annexes present methodologies and case studies representing the various models.

Key issues for freer agricultural trade from the perspective of developing countries

Zhong, Funing
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 107242 bytes; 352 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.41%
Almost eight years have passed since the Uruguay Round of multi-lateral negotiations were conducted under GATT, but developing countries are yet to see or benefit from the freer agricultural trade projected by most studies during the negotiations. Because most developing economies depend heavily on agricultural production and trade, the world agricultural market has a significant impact on their growth, as well as on their attitude towards the next round of negotiations. It was predicted that, following the completion of the Uruguay Round of negotiations and the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the prices of most farm products in the world market would greatly increase because of cuts in domestic price support and export subsidies in developed countries. As a result, developing countries – with the exception of the poorest and most food-deficient ones – would benefit significantly from freer trade in agriculture and see their GDP growth accelerate. In reality, however, this has not been the case. World prices for major farm products remain low, while trade volumes remain the same. The reason for this is not new: the developed countries have kept their domestic price support and export subsidies at the same high levels...

Distortions to agricultural markets : trends and fluctuations, 1955 to 2010.

Nelgen, Signe
Fonte: Universidade de Adelaide Publicador: Universidade de Adelaide
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
Publicado em //2012 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.4%
The thesis analyses the patterns and underlying political economy causes of long-run trends and short-run fluctuations in national distortions to agricultural incentives. It does so by exploiting, revising and expanding a dataset of agricultural distortion measures in developing and developed countries from 1955 to 2004 for developing and 2007 for high-income countries by Anderson and Valenzuela (2008). More specifically, it extends its time period to 2009 for developing countries and 2010 for high-income countries. An essential contribution of the thesis is the update of this database to 2010 in order to capture the most recent international food price spike period. The large dataset makes it possible to analyse insulating behaviour in agricultural markets historically over the past 55 years, and to compare governments' reactions to food market shocks and upwards and downwards price spikes in the most recent years vis-a-vis those in the past. The thesis examines the extent of domestic market insulating behaviour of governments by both food-exporting and food-importing countries. This is because the policies of both country groups contribute substantially to international food price volatility and therefore to economic instability and to trade and welfare fluctuations. The international-to-domestic food price transmission elasticity is used as one indicator of such policy action. The evidence also allows us to test to what extent the policy decisions of governments achieve the goal of protecting domestic producers or consumers from international price spikes in either direction. The results of the analysis are subdivided into the contribution of different regions...

Levels and determinants of agricultural market integration: the impacts of policies on marketisation

Yang, Du
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 501587 bytes; 352 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
Português
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66.5%
Degree of market integration has often been used as a gauge of the success of market liberalisation and structural adjustment policies in developing countries. China is both an emerging economy and the world’s largest transitional economy. The target of its economic reform is the formation of an efficient market-oriented economy. Since it provides a wealth of evidence of the workings of a transitional economy, the performance of China’s market is of great interest to transitional economists. There are two reasons to believe that market integration must be tested if the progress of economic reform in China is to be determined. The first reason relates to debates about assessment of market performance. On the one hand, China has been praised for facilitating market competition amongst state-owned, collective and private sectors. On the other hand, Young argues that, despite market-oriented reform, segments of the Chinese economy freed from central control tend to exploit rent-seeking opportunities implicit in distortions of the economy. As Young puts it, ‘distortions beget distortion’. It is possible China’s ongoing reform will stimulate sustained economic growth. If Young’s prediction is accurate, however, China’s markets have been getting less rather than more integrated and sustained economic growth in the future is unlikely. It is necessary...

Kyrgyz Republic : Agricultural Policy Update, Volume1. Overview

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Agricultural Study; Economic & Sector Work
Português
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46.54%
This policy note examines the policy and investment framework between 2003 and 2010, resulting sector performance and the priorities for future development. It draws attention to the need to refocus on completing the fundamental reforms and investments on which Kyrgyzstan's early successes were built. These include further development of land market, building rural finance markets, further public investment and institutional development in the irrigation sector, encouraging greater private investment in the seeds sector and machinery services, public-private partnerships for advisory service provision, completion of ongoing reforms in pasture management, development of veterinary services and improving the business environment for private investment in agro-processing. The policy Note discusses the government's approach to achieving greater food security, which centers on food self-sufficiency and discusses why this is not the best route to raising low rural incomes - the root cause of food insecurity. The report discusses some of the policies conceived after the food price crisis...

Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda

Anderson, Kym; Martin, Will
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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46.41%
Anderson and Martin examine the extent to which various regions, and the world as a whole, could gain from multilateral trade reform over the next decade. They use the World Bank's linkage model of the global economy to examine the impact first of current trade barriers and agricultural subsidies, and then of possible outcomes from the World Trade Organization's Doha round. The results suggest moving to free global merchandise trade would boost real incomes in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia (and in Cairns Group countries) proportionately more than in other developing countries or high-income countries. Real returns to farm land and unskilled labor and real net farm incomes would rise substantially in those developing country regions, thereby alleviating poverty. A Doha partial liberalization could take the world some way toward those desirable outcomes, but more so the more agricultural subsidies are disciplined and applied tariffs are cut.

Agricultural Trade : What Matters in the Doha Round?

Laborde, David; Martin, Will
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.49%
This survey concludes that including agriculture in the Doha Agenda negotiations was important both economically and politically, although the political resistance to reform is particularly strong in this sector. While agriculture accounts for less than 10 percent of merchandise trade, high and variable agricultural distortions appear to cause the majority of the cost of distortions to global merchandise trade. Within agriculture, most of the costs appear to arise from trade barriers levied on imports since these barriers tend to be high, variable across time and over products, and are levied by a wide range of countries. The negotiations faced a need for balance between discipline in reducing tariffs and hence creating the market access gains that are central to the negotiations, and flexibility in managing political pressures. While the approach of providing flexibility on a certain percentage of tariff lines is seriously flawed, the proposed Modalities still appear to provide worthwhile market access. Better ways appear to be needed to deal with developing countries' concerns about food price volatility while reducing the collective-action problems resulting from price insulation.

Tanzania Public Expenditure Review : National Agricultural Input Voucher Scheme

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Public Expenditure Review; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.37%
Tanzania is largely an agriculture-based economy. This sector accounts for over three-quarters of national employment, and approximately 25 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The national agricultural input voucher scheme (NAIVS) is a market smart input subsidy program designed in response to the sharp rise in global grain and fertilizer prices in 2007 and 2008. The main aim of the program is to raise maize and rice production, and thus preserve Tanzania's household and national food security. During the period from 2008 to 2013, approximately United States (U.S.) 300 million dollars has been invested in providing more than 2.5 million smallholder farmers with a 50 percent subsidy on a one acre package of maize or rice seed, and chemical fertilizer. The input subsidy program helped Tanzanian smallholders harvest more than 2.5 million tons of additional maize and rice grain. The NAIVS program also faced multiple logistical challenges. These challenges are being considered in the government's new big results now initiative. This report summarizes the results of an overview of the program...

The World Bank Group and the Global Food Crisis : An Evaluation of the World Bank Group Response

Independent Evaluation Group
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Group Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank Group
Tipo: Publications & Research; Publications & Research :: Working Paper
Português
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46.4%
The unanticipated spike in international food prices in 2007-08 hit many developing countries hard. The World Bank (International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and International Development Association) organized rapidly for short-term support in the crisis, launching a fast-track program of loans and grants, the Global Food Crisis Response Program (GFRP). The GFRP mainly targeted low-income countries, and provided detailed policy advice to governments and its own staff on how to respond to the crisis. The Bank also scaled up lending for agriculture and social protection to support the building of medium-term resilience to future food price shocks. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) responded by sharply increasing access to liquidity for agribusinesses and agricultural traders in the short and medium term, as well as new programs to improve incentives for agricultural market participants. This evaluation assesses the effectiveness of the World Bank Group (WBG) response in addressing the short-term impacts of the food price crisis and in enhancing the resilience of countries to future shocks. Bank group support for the short-term response reached vulnerable countries...

Sri Lanka - Agricultural Commercialization : Improving Farmers’ Incomes in the Poorest Regions

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: General Economy, Macroeconomics and Growth Study
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.43%
The issue of regional differences in development has moved to the center of the development debate in Sri Lanka, partly after the release of regional poverty data. For the past many years, there have been significant and increasing differences between the Western province and the rest of the country in terms of per capita income levels, growth rates of per capita income, poverty rates, and the structure of provincial economies. The structure of the report is as follows: chapter two looks at the poverty/growth/agriculture nexus in the poorest regions of Sri Lanka. It presents data on poverty and growth in the poorest provinces, especially Uva and Sabaragamuwa, and provides an analysis of factors associated with the rural poor. Chapter three provides an overview and brief discussion of the Government's agricultural policies and programs. Chapter four identifies constraints that restrict farmers' incomes in the four poorest provinces. It presents results from extensive stakeholder consultations carried out in these provinces. These results are complemented with findings from the 2005 rural investment climate assessment to identify some of the general constraints in the agriculture sector in Sri Lanka. Chapter five presents the findings of an agricultural resource audit of small-scale farmers in the poorest regions that analyzed production...

Improving Agricultural Productivity and Market Efficiency in Latin America and the Caribbean : How ICTs Can Make a Difference?

Goyal, Aparajita; González-Velosa, Carolina
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.52%
Agricultural growth rates in the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region have been much slower than the rest of the developing world. In the regions of East Asia, South Asia and Middle East and North Africa, the annual growth of agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 1980-2004 exceeded 3 percent, while growth in Sub- Saharan Africa averaged almost 3 percent. This paper attempts to present an overview of the agricultural sector in LAC, discuss its distinctive features, and the potential role of Information and Communication Technology's (ICTs) in improving agricultural productivity and market efficiency in this region. The discussion in this paper will refer to the evidence provided by studies that evaluate the impact of ICTs interventions. While the emphasis will be put on the studies that evaluate interventions in the LAC region, there will also be references to studies in other developing economies whenever these are pertinent to the LAC context. The commercialization of agricultural products has suffered important transformations in recent decades...

Republic of India : Accelerating Agricultural Productivity Growth

World Bank Group
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work; Economic & Sector Work :: Other Agricultural Study
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.36%
In the past 50 years, Indian agriculture has undergone a major transformation, from dependence on food aid to becoming a consistent net food exporter. The gradual reforms in the agricultural sector (following the broader macro-reforms of the early 1990s) spurred some unprecedented innovations and changes in the food sector driven by private investment. These impressive achievements must now be viewed in light of the policy and investment imperatives that lie ahead. Agricultural growth has improved in recent years (averaging about 3.5 percent since 2004-05), but at a long-term trend rate of growth of 3 percent, agriculture has underperformed relative to its potential. The pockets of post-reform dynamism that have emerged evidently have not reached a sufficiently large scale to influence the sector's performance. For the vast population that still derives a living directly or indirectly from agriculture, achieving "faster, more inclusive, and sustainable growth', the objectives at the heart of the Twelfth five year plan...

Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda

Martin, Will; Anderson, Kym
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank and Palgrave Macmillan Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank and Palgrave Macmillan
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.55%
Agriculture is yet again causing contention in international trade negotiations. It caused long delays to the Uruguay round in the late 1980s and 1990s, and it is again proving to be the major stumbling block in the World Trade Organization's (WTO) Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations (formally known as the Doha Development Agenda, or DDA). This study builds on numerous recent analyses of the Doha Development Agenda and agricultural trade, including five very helpful books that appeared in 2004. One, edited by Aksoy and Beghin (2004), provides details of trends in global agricultural markets and policies, especially as they affect nine commodities of interest to developing countries. Another, edited by Ingco and Winters (2004), includes a wide range of analyses based on papers revised following a conference held just before the aborted WTO trade ministerial meeting in Seattle in 1999. The third, edited by Ingco and Nash (2004), provides a follow-up to the broad global perspective of the Ingco and winters volume: it explores a wide range of key issues and options in agricultural trade reform from a developing-country perspective. The fourth...

Ukraine Agricultural Competitiveness

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Policy Note; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.58%
The agri-food sector is an important part of the Ukrainian economy. Agriculture could make an even larger contribution to economic growth and the vitality of rural areas in Ukraine than is currently the case. Ukraine has the agro-climatic potential to be a major player on world agricultural markets. Agricultural competitiveness in Ukraine also suffers from inadequate systems to test and document food product quality and food safety. Ukraine's food safety control system is complicated and characterized by fragmented and often overlapping jurisdictions. Many standards applied in Ukraine are inconsistent with World Trade Organization (WTO) provisions, with standards established by the responsible international bodies and with accepted practices in international trade. Without improvements towards an efficient and internationally recognized food quality and safety control system, Ukrainian agriculture will find it increasingly difficult to sell into international markets and its products will not be able to command top prices. The ban on Ukrainian meat...