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The Evolution of Agricultural Trade Flows

Aksoy, M. Ataman; Ng, Francis
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.27%
Earlier research showed that during the 1980s and 1990s most of the global agricultural trade expansion took place among the industrial countries and among countries within trade blocs. These were also periods of declining agricultural prices. These prices increased during the 2000s, there were continuous trade reforms, and many developing countries started to support their agricultural sectors. This paper analyzes trade flows during the past two decades, and tries to measure whether all these developments have changed the trade balances and the share of different groups within the global trade flows. In addition, it looks at the trade balances on food to see the impact of these changes on net food importing countries. In conclusion, unlike the case with manufacturing, developing countries have not been able to increase their export shares in agriculture as significantly. They have maintained their trade shares by primarily expanding exports to other developing countries.

Political Economy of Public Policies : Insights from Distortions to Agricultural and Food Markets

Anderson, Kym; Rausser, Gordon; Swinnen, Johan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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46.29%
The agricultural and food sector is an ideal case for investigating the political economy of public policies. Many of the policy developments in this sector since the 1950s have been sudden and transformational, while others have been gradual but persistent. This paper reviews and synthesizes the literature on trends and fluctuations in market distortions and the political-economy explanations that have been advanced. Based on a rich global data set covering a half-century of evidence on commodities, countries, and policy instruments, the paper identifies hypotheses that have been explored in the literature on the extent of market distortions and the conditions under which reform may be feasible.

Agribusiness Indicators : Synthesis Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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36.64%
The need for countries in Sub-Saharan Africa to build more productive, modern, and market-oriented farming sectors is one of our most pressing development challenges. In coming years, African agriculture will have to increase food production and expand and intensify value chains in order to meet changing demand on the part of a rapidly expanding and urbanizing consumer base. The process of doing this will enable African countries to begin pushing back against their currently growing reliance on food imports. An essential precondition for bringing this transformation to pass is to increase and improve the information on which farmers and agribusinesses base their production and investment decisions, and on which public sector institutions base their policies. The purpose of the Agribusiness Indicators (ABIs) Project is to provide this kind of empirical information in the form of a series of metrics and indicators that can be used to measure change over time and to make direct comparisons between countries, especially policy makers. These indicators will be used to inform policy dialogue...

Key issues for freer agricultural trade from the perspective of developing countries

Zhong, Funing
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 107242 bytes; 352 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.38%
Almost eight years have passed since the Uruguay Round of multi-lateral negotiations were conducted under GATT, but developing countries are yet to see or benefit from the freer agricultural trade projected by most studies during the negotiations. Because most developing economies depend heavily on agricultural production and trade, the world agricultural market has a significant impact on their growth, as well as on their attitude towards the next round of negotiations. It was predicted that, following the completion of the Uruguay Round of negotiations and the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the prices of most farm products in the world market would greatly increase because of cuts in domestic price support and export subsidies in developed countries. As a result, developing countries – with the exception of the poorest and most food-deficient ones – would benefit significantly from freer trade in agriculture and see their GDP growth accelerate. In reality, however, this has not been the case. World prices for major farm products remain low, while trade volumes remain the same. The reason for this is not new: the developed countries have kept their domestic price support and export subsidies at the same high levels...

An empirical analysis of global agricultural price distorting policies: 1960 to 2007.

Croser, Johanna Louise
Fonte: Universidade de Adelaide Publicador: Universidade de Adelaide
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
Publicado em //2010 Português
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46.44%
Economists have long been interested in measuring the extent, effects and causes of agricultural price and trade policies. The topic has drawn attention because agricultural trade between countries has almost never been free, and yet it is widely accepted that trade policy distortions affect the incentives of producers and consumers and cause a redistribution of resource use in the economy. Traditional aggregations of agricultural price and trade distortions can be poor guides to the economic effects of agricultural price and trade policies. Measures without theoretical foundation — such as simple- or trade-weighted average price distortions — may introduce biases in analysis. Recent decades have seen improvements in aggregation theory in the form of scalar index numbers of the trade- and welfare-reducing effects of price and trade policies. Despite the new theory, however, analysts have continued to use less satisfactory measures in practice. This thesis calculates partial-equilibrium versions of trade restrictiveness indices from the Anderson-Neary family of indices for agricultural policy distortions in 75 developed and developing countries over a period 1960 to 2007. The data for the empirical work are from the recently released World Bank Distortions to Agricultural Incentives database. The thesis calculates indices at the country level for the sample countries. Two partial-equilibrium indices are calculated — a Trade Reduction Index (TRI) and a Welfare Reduction Index (WRI).¹ The TRI (WRI) is the uniform trade tax that yields the same loss in trade volume (welfare) as the structure of disaggregated distortions. The results of the country-level estimates show that standard weighted averages of price distortions understate the extent of global distortion from agricultural policies. One manuscript of the thesis focuses in particular on the trade restrictiveness of agricultural policy in Sub-Sahara Africa...

Georgia : Agricultural and Rural Enterprise Development

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
Português
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46.53%
The report is structured as follows. Section one examines the contribution of the rural economy to the national economy, the structure of the farm and non-farm sectors and their relative importance. Section two describes policies and constraints affecting the wider rural economy including, reforms in macro-economic management, recent external influences and financial services before discussing those which relate specifically to agriculture including, agricultural trade policy, land reform, agricultural machinery services , irrigation and drainage, seeds, sanitary and phytosanitary control and veterinary services, marketing and advisory services. Section three assesses the outcomes of these policies on the structure and performance of the rural economy. Section four describes the extent to which policy makers should prioritize the farm and non-farm sectors in rural areas and then presents recommendations for reform. While it is recognized that rural infrastructure (roads, potable water, and energy) and rural social services have a major impact on the rural economy...

Policy Reforms Affecting Agricultural Incentives; Much Achieved, Much Still Needed

Anderson, Kym
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Journal Article; Journal Article
Português
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46.23%
For decades, earnings from farming in many developing countries have been depressed by a pro-urban bias in own-country policies, as well as by governments of richer countries favoring their farmers with import barriers and subsidies. Both sets of policies reduce national and global economic welfare and inhibit agricultural trade and economic growth. They almost certainly add to inequality and poverty in developing countries, since three-quarters of the world's billion poorest people depend on farming for their livelihood. During the past two decades, however, numerous developing country governments have reduced their sectoral and trade policy distortions, while some high-income countries also have begun reducing market-distorting aspects of their farm policies. The author surveys the changing extent of policy distortions to prices faced by developing-country farmers over the past half century, and provides a summary of new empirical estimates from a global economy-wide model that yield estimates of how much could be gained by removing the interventions remaining as of 2004. The author concludes by pointing to the scope and prospects for further pro-poor policy reform in both developing and high-income countries.

Global Income Distribution and Poverty in the Absence of Agricultural Distortions

Bussolo, Maurizio; De Hoyos, Rafael; Medvedev, Denis
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.43%
This paper assesses the potential impacts of the removal of agriculture trade distortions using a newly developed dataset and methodological approach for evaluating the global poverty and inequality effects of policy reforms. It finds that liberalization of agriculture and food could increase global extreme poverty (US$1 a day) by 0.2 percent and lower moderate poverty (US$2 a day) by 0.3 percent. Beneath these small aggregate changes, most countries witness a substantial reduction in poverty while South Asia-where half of the world's poor reside-experiences an increase in extreme poverty incidence due to high rates of protection afforded to unskilled-intensive agricultural sectors. The distributional changes are likely to be mild, but exhibit a strong regional pattern. Inequality is likely to fall in regions such as Latin America, which are characterized by high initial inequality, and rise in regions like South Asia, characterized by low initial inequality.

Domestic Terms of Trade in Pakistan : Implications for Agricultural Pricing and Taxation Policies

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Agricultural Study; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.29%
In 2008 the Government of Pakistan agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to increase the tax/Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio by 3.5 percentage points over the medium term. This commitment has rekindled the debate regarding the agricultural income tax. Advocates of an agricultural income tax argue that the sector remains protected by political interests, while opponents to such a tax maintain that agriculture is already subject to significant indirect taxation, mainly because of prevailing price distortions in agricultural product markets. This paper reviews the literature on domestic terms of trade analysis in Pakistan and calculates an updated set of terms of trade indices for agriculture relative to industry. The paper also discusses key issues with regard to the imposition of agricultural income tax in Pakistan, and uses simulation results from a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for the Pakistan economy to analyze the potential effects of the imposition of an agricultural income tax on poverty and fiscal revenues. The results suggest that the domestic terms of trade have remained unfavorable for Pakistan's agriculture during almost the entire 2000-2009 period. Agriculture's terms of trade declined from 2001-02 to 2003-04 before improving only slightly during the period from 2004-05 to 2006-07. As of 2007 however...

Impacts of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization

Ianchovichina, Elena; Martin, Will
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Journal Article; Publications & Research :: Journal Article; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.57%
This article presents estimates of the impact of China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). China is estimated to be the biggest beneficiary (US$31 billion a year from trade reforms in preparation for accession and additional gains of $10 billion a year from reforms after accession), followed by its major trading partners that also undertake liberalization, including the economies in North America, Western Europe, and Taiwan (China). Accession will boost manufacturing sectors in China, especially textiles and apparel, which will benefit directly from the removal of export quotas. Developing economies competing with China in third markets may suffer small losses. Accession will have important distributional consequences for China, with the wages of skilled and unskilled nonfarm workers rising in real terms and relative to those of farm workers. Possible policy changes, including reductions in barriers to labor mobility and improvements in rural education, could more than offset these negative impacts and facilitate the development of China's economy.

Agricultural Trade : What Matters in the Doha Round?

Laborde, David; Martin, Will
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.3%
This survey concludes that including agriculture in the Doha Agenda negotiations was important both economically and politically, although the political resistance to reform is particularly strong in this sector. While agriculture accounts for less than 10 percent of merchandise trade, high and variable agricultural distortions appear to cause the majority of the cost of distortions to global merchandise trade. Within agriculture, most of the costs appear to arise from trade barriers levied on imports since these barriers tend to be high, variable across time and over products, and are levied by a wide range of countries. The negotiations faced a need for balance between discipline in reducing tariffs and hence creating the market access gains that are central to the negotiations, and flexibility in managing political pressures. While the approach of providing flexibility on a certain percentage of tariff lines is seriously flawed, the proposed Modalities still appear to provide worthwhile market access. Better ways appear to be needed to deal with developing countries' concerns about food price volatility while reducing the collective-action problems resulting from price insulation.

World Development Report 2008; Agriculture for Development

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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46.37%
The world's demand for food is expected to double within the next 50 years, while the natural resources that sustain agriculture will become increasingly scarce, degraded, and vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In many poor countries, agriculture accounts for at least 40 percent of GDP and 80 percent of employment. At the same time, about 70 percent of the world's poor live in rural areas and most depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. World Development Report 2008 seeks to assess where, when, and how agriculture can be an effective instrument for economic development, especially development that favors the poor. It examines several broad questions: How has agriculture changed in developing countries in the past 20 years? What are the important new challenges and opportunities for agriculture? Which new sources of agricultural growth can be captured cost effectively in particular in poor countries with large agricultural sectors as in Africa? How can agricultural growth be made more effective for poverty reduction? How can governments facilitate the transition of large populations out of agriculture, without simply transferring the burden of rural poverty to urban areas? How can the natural resource endowment for agriculture be protected? How can agriculture's negative environmental effects be contained? This year's report marks the 30th year the World Bank has been publishing the World Development Report.

Increasing Resilience to Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector in the Middle East : The Cases of Jordan and Lebanon

Verner, Dorte; Lee, David R.; Ashwill, Maximillian; Wilby, Robert
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
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46.31%
The increasing resilience to climate change in the agricultural sector report presents local-level priorities, informed by stakeholder input, to build agricultural resilience in both countries. The objectives of this study were threefold: (1) to improve the understanding of climate change projections and impacts on rural communities and livelihoods in selected regions of Jordan and Lebanon, specifically the Jordan River Valley and Lebanon's Bekaa Valley; (2) to engage local communities, farmers, local experts, and local and national government representatives in a participatory fashion in helping craft agricultural adaptation options to climate change; and (3) to develop local and regional climate change action plans that formulate recommendations for investment strategies and strategic interventions in local agricultural systems. The climate challenges confronting development in the Middle East are particularly stark. This region, and in particular its rural people, face what might be called a "triple threat" from climate change. First...

Agricultural Exports from Latin America and the Caribbean : Harnessing Trade to Feed the World and Promote Development

Chaherli, Nabil; Nash, John
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Commodities Study; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.43%
The United Nations estimates that global food demand will double by 2050, with much of that growth in developing countries. The world will have 2.3 billion more people, and given the deep transformation of growth trajectories in low-income countries, they will be increasingly affluent, with demands for more, different, and better food. While countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are quite heterogeneous in their production potential, overall they are well equipped to contribute to meeting this challenge. LAC has always maintained a strong comparative advantage in agricultural production, as indicated not only by its position as a net food exporter but also by its high comparative advantage. LAC is also well endowed in renewable water resources, with about a third of the 42,000 cubic kilometers worldwide. Per capita, LAC has the highest endowment of renewable water among developing regions, though some sub regions in LAC face higher than average scarcity. This report's in-depth look at Argentina and Brazil identifies looming logistics and policy issues that threaten to derail these locomotives of agricultural growth and some policy choices that have contributed to their success and that might be worth emulating. While LAC countries have substantially reduced the anti-export and anti-agricultural biases in their trade regimes...

Sri Lanka - Agricultural Commercialization : Improving Farmers’ Incomes in the Poorest Regions

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: General Economy, Macroeconomics and Growth Study
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.31%
The issue of regional differences in development has moved to the center of the development debate in Sri Lanka, partly after the release of regional poverty data. For the past many years, there have been significant and increasing differences between the Western province and the rest of the country in terms of per capita income levels, growth rates of per capita income, poverty rates, and the structure of provincial economies. The structure of the report is as follows: chapter two looks at the poverty/growth/agriculture nexus in the poorest regions of Sri Lanka. It presents data on poverty and growth in the poorest provinces, especially Uva and Sabaragamuwa, and provides an analysis of factors associated with the rural poor. Chapter three provides an overview and brief discussion of the Government's agricultural policies and programs. Chapter four identifies constraints that restrict farmers' incomes in the four poorest provinces. It presents results from extensive stakeholder consultations carried out in these provinces. These results are complemented with findings from the 2005 rural investment climate assessment to identify some of the general constraints in the agriculture sector in Sri Lanka. Chapter five presents the findings of an agricultural resource audit of small-scale farmers in the poorest regions that analyzed production...

How Do Agricultural Policy Restrictions to Global Trade and Welfare Differ across Commodities?

Lloyd, Peter J.; Croser, Johanna L.; Anderson, Kym
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.28%
For decades the world's agricultural markets have been highly distorted by national government policies, but very differently for different commodities. Hence a weighted average across countries of nominal rates of assistance or consumer tax equivalents for a product can be misleading as an indicator of the trade or welfare effects of policies affecting that product's global market. This is especially the case when some countries tax and others subsidize its production or consumption. This article develops a new set of more-satisfactory indicators for that purpose, drawing on the recent literature on trade restrictiveness indexes. It then exploits a global agricultural distortions database recently compiled by the World Bank to generate the first set of estimates of those two indicators for each of 28 key agricultural commodities from 1960 to 2004, based on a sample of 75 countries that together account for more than three-quarters of the world's production of those agricultural commodities. These reveal the considerable extent of reforms in agricultural policies of developing as well as high-income countries over the past two decades.

Distributional Effects of WTO Agricultural Reforms in Rich and Poor Countries

Hertel, Thomas W.; Keeney, Roman; Ivanic, Maros; Winters, L. Alan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.43%
Rich countries' agricultural trade policies are the battleground on which the future of the WTO's troubled Doha Round will be determined. Subject to widespread criticism, they nonetheless appear to be almost immune to serious reform, and one of their most common defenses is that they protect poor farmers. The authors' findings reject this claim. The analysis uses detailed data on farm incomes to show that major commodity programs are highly regressive in the United States, and that the only serious losses under trade reform are among large, wealthy farmers in a few heavily protected subsectors. In contrast, analysis using household data from 15 developing countries indicates that reforming rich countries' agricultural trade policies would lift large numbers of developing country farm households out of poverty. In the majority of cases these gains are not outweighed by the poverty-increasing effects of higher food prices among other households. Agricultural reforms that appear feasible, even under an ambitious Doha Round, achieve only a fraction of the benefits for developing countries that full liberalization promises, but protect U.S. large farms from most of the rigors of adjustment. Finally, the analysis indicates that maximal trade-led poverty reductions occur when developing countries participate more fully in agricultural trade liberalization.

Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Asia

Anderson, Kym; Martin, Will
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.3%
This study is part of a global research project seeking to understand the changing scope and impact of the policy bias against agriculture and the reasons behind agricultural policy reforms in Africa, Europe's transition economies, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia. One purpose of the project is to obtain quantitative indicators of the effects of recent policy interventions. A second objective is to gain a deeper understanding of the political economy of trends in the distortions in agricultural incentives in various national settings. The third goal is to use this deeper understanding to explore the prospects for reducing the distortions in agricultural incentives and discover the likely implications for agricultural competitiveness, equality, and poverty reduction in many countries, large and small. This book provides an overview of the evolution of the distortions to agricultural incentives caused by price and trade policies in the World Bank-defined regions of East Asia and South Asia. The volume includes an introduction and summary chapter and commissioned studies of three Northeast Asian...

Yemen - Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on the Water and Agricultural Sectors and the Policy Implications

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Environmental Analysis (CEA)
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.24%
Yemen is particularly vulnerable to climate change and variability impacts because of its water dependence and current high levels of water stress. This natural resource challenge is compounded by demographic pressure, weak governance and institutions, and by a deteriorating economic situation. The economic and social outlook is not bright, and planning and international support will certainly be needed to help Yemen to adapt to the further stresses caused by climate change and variability. In the light of these challenges, the government has developed a National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA). In support of this, the World Bank commissioned a series of studies of climate change in two phases: the first phase projected climate change scenarios for Yemen, and phase two assessed climate change impacts on the agricultural and water sectors, and outlined possible policy and program responses. The present study is essentially a digest of the work done to date, and is intended as a contribution to Government's process of assessing vulnerability and adaptation options by: (i) assessing possible impacts on the water balance and on agriculture and rural livelihoods; and (ii) reviewing adaptation options and the priorities for government policies...

Measuring Distortions to Agricultural Incentives, Revisited

Anderson, Kym; Kurzweil, Marianne; Martin, Will; Sandri, Damiano; Valenzuela, Ernesto
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.31%
Notwithstanding the tariffication component of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture, import tariffs on farm products continue to provide an incomplete indication of the extent to which agricultural producer and consumer incentives are distorted in national markets. Especially in developing countries, non-agricultural policies indirectly impact agricultural and food markets. Empirical analysis aimed at monitoring distortions to agricultural incentives thus need to examine both agricultural and non-agricultural policy measures including import or export taxes, subsidies and quantitative restrictions, plus domestic taxes or subsidies on farm outputs or inputs and consumer subsidies for food staples. This paper addresses the practical methodological issues that need to be faced when attempting to undertake such a measurement task in developing countries. The approach is illustrated in two ways: by presenting estimates of nominal and relative rates of assistance to farmers in China for the period 1981 to 2005; and by summarizing estimates from an economy-wide computable general equilibrium model of the effects on agricultural versus non-agricultural markets of the project's measured distortions globally as of 2004.