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Aid to the Services Sector : Does It Affect Manufacturing Exports?

Ferro, Esteban; Portugal-Perez, Alberto; Wilson, John S.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.34%
This paper evaluates the impact of foreign aid to five service sectors (transportation, information and communications technologies, energy, banking/financial services, and business services) on exports of downstream manufacturing sectors in developing countries. To address the reverse causality between aid and exports, the analysis relies on an original identification strategy that exploits (i) the variation of aid flows to service sectors, and (ii) the variation of service-intensities across industrial sectors and countries using input-output data. The authors find a positive effect of aid to services, in general, on downstream manufacturing exports of developing countries across regions and income-level groups.

International Aid and Financial Crises in Donor Countries

Dang, Hai-Anh; Knack, Steve; Rogers, Halsey
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.57%
The global financial crisis has already led to sharp downturns in the developing world. In the past, international aid has been able to offset partially the effects of crises that began in the developing world, but because this crisis began in the wealthy countries, donors may be less willing or able to increase aid in this crisis. Not only have donor-country incomes fallen, but the cause of the drop -- the banking and financial-sector crisis -- may exacerbate the effect on aid flows because of its heavy fiscal costs. This paper estimates how donor-country banking crises have affected aid flows in the past, using panel data from 24 donor countries between 1977 and 2007. The analysis finds that banking crises in donor countries are associated with a substantial additional fall in aid flows, beyond any income-related effects, perhaps because of the high fiscal costs of crisis and the debt hangover in the post-crisis periods. In most specifications, aid flows from crisis-affected countries fall by an average of 20 to 25 percent (relative to the counterfactual) and bottom out only about a decade after the banking crisis hits. In addition...

What Is Effective Aid? How Would Donors Allocate It?

Kenny, Charles
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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56.53%
There are significant weaknesses in some of the traditional justifications for assuming that aid will foster development. This paper looks at what the cross-country aid effectiveness literature and World Bank Operations Evaluation Department reviews have suggested about effective aid, first in terms of promoting income growth, and then for promoting other goals. This review forms the basis for a discussion of recommendations to improve aid effectiveness and a discussion of effective aid allocation. Given the multiple potential objectives for aid, there is no one right answer. However, it appears that there are a number of reforms to aid practices and distribution that might help to deliver a more significant return to aid resources. We should provide aid where institutions are already strong, where they can be strengthened with the help of donor resources, or where they can be bypassed with limited damage to existing institutional capacity. The importance of institutions to aid outcomes, as well as the fungibility of aid flows, suggests that programmatic aid should be expanded in countries with strong institutions, while project aid should be supported based on its ability to transfer knowledge and test new practices and support global public good provision rather than (merely) as a tool of financial resource transfer. The importance of institutions also suggests that we should be cautious in our expectations regarding the results of increased aid flows.

Making Aid Work : The End of the Cold War and Progress Toward a New Aid Architecture Should Make Aid More Effective

Sundberg, Mark; Gelb, Alan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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46.45%
Findings reports on ongoing operational, economic, and sector work carried out by the World Bank and its member governments in the Africa Region. This issued focuses on the new aid architecture and how aid coming in now has development objectives where as in the past it was often guided by geopolitical considerations linked to the interest of the donor countries. This issue not only discusses the changing aid picture, but it also looks at where the aid has gone and some encouraging aid trends that are occurring.

Thinking about Aid Predictability

Andrews, Matthew; Wilhelm, Vera
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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56.45%
Researchers are giving more attention to aid predictability. In part, this is because of increases in the number of aid agencies and aid dollars and the growing complexity of the aid community. A growing body of research is examining key questions: Is aid unpredictable? What causes unpredictability? What can be done about it? This note draws from a selection of recent literature to bring some clarity to the basic story emerging. The authors start by presenting evidence from the literature on various problems with aid flows. Then authors discuss how researchers use terms like volatility and unpredictability when discussing aid predictability; the suggest that these concepts can be sharpened by introducing two new concepts: expectations and reliability. These new concepts are particularly useful in conceptualizing the problems of unpredictable flows in government budget processes. This approach allows a basic analysis of how timing and different types of aid affect predictability, and the implications for policy making.

The Market for Aid : Understanding Aid by Looking Forward and Looking Back

Harford, Tim; Klein, Michael
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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46.36%
The market for aid is changing. These days donors use a far greater array of instruments than in the past, and operate in a context of far larger private financial flows. Poor countries are growing richer, but there are legitimate doubts about whether the aid industry deserves credit. Measurement of the effectiveness of aid has not yet produced some of the results that would really help, such as credible ratings of aid agencies or rigorous randomized trials of specific programs. This information might pull the aid debate away from minimizing the costs of aid competition and toward trying to maximize the benefits: widespread experimentation and innovation.

Aid Effectiveness : Can Aid Agencies Be Smarter Than the Invisible Hand?

Klein, Michael; Harford, Tim
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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56.43%
Private financial flows such as foreign direct investment seem toencourage economic growth and relieve poverty in part because theycreate excellent incentives for transferring know-how and in partbecause they are subject to a stern market test that ensures they areallocated and monitored carefully. For aid flows, not automaticallysubject to these disciplines, it is difficult to be as effective. ThisNote argues that aid agencies, by learning what makes private flowsso effective, can bring better aid to the poorest.

The Future of Aid 1 : The Rise of the Undergrowth

Harford, Tim; Klien, Michael; Tilmes, Klaus
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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56.43%
This note considers the future of aid from the perspective of the 2005-2030 time frame. It offers a possible scenario for the future, with booming private remittances and nongovernmental aid flows put to innovative uses, eclipsing a less agile, more politically driven official aid industry. A companion note (report 32125) offers a second scenario. The notes were written in the spirit of plausible stories abougt the future to encourage thinking about possible responses.

International Development Cooperation : Set of Lectures

Bartenev, Vladimir; Glazunova, Elena
Fonte: World Bank, Moscow Publicador: World Bank, Moscow
Português
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46.39%
This set of lectures is structured in accordance with the aforementioned objectives. It is divided into four parts. Part one examines the theoretical-methodological issues of development studies that remain largely a terra incognita for the Russian audience. The authors deliberately differentiated between two terms, development and international development assistance . The most voluminous Part two examines the key issues pertaining to aid architecture. In the beginning the authors reconstruct the terminological and institutional-legal system in which international development assistance is provided currently, classify the main criteria, forms, and modalities of aid, as well as identify key international development actors. The first introductory lecture is followed by a description of the latest trends in composition and distribution of aid flows with breakdowns by donor group, aid modality, region, country, income group, and sector. There is an analysis of those trends which hinder progress in increasing aid effectiveness. The authors develop the idea that international development assistance is a form of cooperation in which both donors and recipients (regardless of the differences in their motivation...

Potential Benefits and Risks of Increased Aid Flows to Burundi

Nielsen, Hannah; Madani, Dorsati
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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66.56%
Burundi has experienced a significant increase in aid flows in recent years. Currently, about half of the budget is funded by aid, mostly grants. The high external assistance has, however, not yet translated into high and sustainable growth rates. This paper analyzes (i) the policy response of the government to the aid surge and its impact on macroeconomic variables; and (ii) the allocation of external assistance and its implications for growth. Since not all aid affects economic development in the same way, aid disbursements are disaggregated by sector as well as by their lag in impacting growth. The analysis shows that Burundi has mostly spent and absorbed increased aid flows, but has until now not suffered significantly from the possible negative effects of an appreciating exchange rate and the related loss of competitiveness, but the possibility of a Dutch disease effect remains a risk. The country s low growth performance, despite high aid inflows, is not necessarily a sign that aid is ineffective or exceeding Burundi s absorptive capacity. It reflects that a large share of aid has been allocated to either humanitarian and emergency aid or long-run growth enhancing sectors. Therefore...

Improving the Dynamics of Aid : Towards More Predictable Budget Support

Eifert, Benn; Gelb, Alan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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56.38%
This paper considers approaches towards improving the predictability of aid to low income countries, with a special focus on budget support. In order to accelerate progress towards the Millennium Development Goals, the donor community is increasing aid flows while pushing for more coordination and tighter performance-based selectivity. However, these factors may increase the unpredictability of aid from current levels, which are already high enough to impose significant costs. Predictability is a particular challenge in the area of budget support, which will continue to increase in importance as aid is sought to underpin longer-term recurrent spending commitments. Budget support reduces transactions costs and drains on capacity, but it tends to be more vulnerable to fluctuations than multi-year project support. Poor predictability raises the threat of a low-level equilibrium: countries, budgeting prudently within a medium-term fiscal framework, will discount commitments; donors will see few funding gaps, so pledges will fall. With some countries discounting aid commitments in formulating budgets, some already see signs of this happening. To improve predictability, donors must extend their funding horizons. However, even if this can be done...

African Development Indicators 2005

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: World Development Indicators
Português
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46.32%
As in previous years, African Development Indicators (ADI 2005 assembles economic, social, and environmental data from a variety of sources to present a broad picture of development across Africa. Some of the key improvements in this year's edition are the reduction of macroeconomic and other data lags, enabling external debt reporting up to 2003 and updates on the HIPC initiative. This volume presents the available relevant data for 1980-2003, grouped into 17 chapters: background data; national accounts; prices and exchange rates; money and banking; external sector; external debt and related flows; government finance; agriculture; power, communications, and transportation; doing business; labor force and employment; aid flows; social indicators; environmental indicators; HIPC; household surveys; and public enterprises. Chapter 14 (environmental indicators) was once again taken from the World Resources Institute's World Resources 2002-2004: Decisions for Earth: Balance, Voice and Power, which is a repeat from ADI 2004. Each chapter begins with a brief introduction on the nature of the data...

African Development Indicators 2001

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: World Development Indicators; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
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46.38%
The report is intended to provide a consistent, and convenient set of data to monitor development programs, and aid flows in the Africa region, while continuing the succession of data publication series, began in 1989 by the World Bank, in cooperation with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Each new volume provides access to more focused information, and represents an improvement in the quality, and availability of the data. The data contained in this report stems mostly, from national statistical services in Africa, and, additionally, many international agencies compile data on Africa, presented in a standardized framework. World Bank staff, supplement estimates to help address missing, or inconsistent data from standard sources, and, these differences in methodologies are addressed throughout in chapter introductions, and in technical notes. The report presents the available relevant data for 1970-99, grouped into fourteen chapters: background data; national accounts; prices, and exchange rates; money and banking; external sector; external debt...

Post-Conflict Aid, Real Exchange Rate Adjustment, and Catch-up Growth

Elbadawi, Ibrahim A.; Kaltani, Linda; Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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56.51%
Post-conflict countries receive substantial aid flows after the start of peace. While post-conflict countries' capacity to absorb aid (that is, the quality of their policies and institutions) is built up only gradually after the onset of peace, the evidence suggests that aid tends to peak immediately after peace is attained and decline thereafter. Aid composition broadly reflects post-conflict priorities, with large parts of aid financing social expenditure and infrastructure investment. Aid has significant short-term effects on the real exchange rate (RER), as inferred from the behavior of RER in the world. While moderate RER overvaluation is observed in post-conflicts, it cannot be traced down to the aid flows. The empirical evidence on world growth reveals new findings about the pattern of catch-up growth during post-conflicts and the role of key growth determinants on post-conflict growth. Aid is an important determinant of growth, both generally and more strongly during post-conflict periods. Because RER misalignment reduces growth...

A Review of Health Sector Aid Financing to Somalia

Capobianco, Emanuele; Naidu, Veni
Fonte: Washington, DC : World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC : World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
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46.3%
Somalia is considered the most fragile of the fragile states: more than fifteen years of war and cyclical natural catastrophes have placed an immense burden on millions of Somalis. Displacement, famine, droughts, disease outbreaks, and illiteracy have become the norm. The international community has tried to respond to Somalia's tragedy and over the years has allocated substantial amounts of funds to a variety of sectors to help address this chronic emergency. This paper focuses on aid financing to the health sector over the period 2000 to 2006. It thoroughly reviews the flows of funds in the complex aid architecture of the Somalia health sector. The study on the 2000-06 aid flows to the health sector in Somalia is a first attempt to fill a large gap of knowledge in this area. The primary objectives of the study were to assess how levels of donor financing varied over the years; which health interventions were prioritized by donors; and how evenly health sector aid was distributed to the different zones of Somalia. The overall aim of the study was to create evidence for donors...

Africa at a Turning Point? : Growth, Aid, and External Shocks

Go, Delfin S.; Page, John
Fonte: Washington, DC : World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC : World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
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46.4%
This book is a collection of essays that seeks to answer three interrelated sets of questions about Africa's recent growth recovery. The first set of essays addresses questions about the drivers and durability of Africa's growth. How different is current economic performance compared to Africa's long history of boom-bust cycles? Have African countries learned to avoid past mistakes and pursued the right policies? How much of the current performance depends on good luck such as favorable commodity prices or the recovery of external assistance and how much depends on hard-won economic policy reforms. A second set of essays looks at the role of donor flows. External assistance plays a larger role in Africa's growth story than in any other part of the developing world. As a result, the economic management of external assistance is a major public policy challenge, and donor behavior is a significant source of external risk. The third set of essays looks at questions arising from commodity price shocks especially from changes in the price of oil. Relative to factors such as policy failures...

What Are the Links between Aid Volatility and Growth?

Markandya, Anil; Ponczek, Vladimir; Yi, Soonhwa
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.4%
This paper adds to aid volatility literature in three ways: First it tests the validity of the aid volatility and growth relationship from various aspects: across different time horizons, by sources of aid, and by aid volatility interactions with country characteristics. Second, it investigates the relationship by the level of aid absorption and spending. Third, when examining the relationship between International Development Association aid volatility and growth, it isolates International Development Association aid volatility due to the recipient country's performance from that due to other sources. The findings suggest that, in the long run, on average, aid volatility is negatively correlated with real economic growth. But the relationship is not even. It is stronger for Sub-Saharan African countries than for other regions and it is not present in middle-income countries or countries with strong institutions. For economies where aid is fully absorbed, aid volatility matters for long-run growth; economies with full aid spending also bear a negative impact of aid volatility on long-run growth. Where aid is not fully absorbed...

Why Aid is Unpredictable: An Empirical Analysis of the Gap Between Actual and Planned Aid Flows

Canavire-Bacarreza, Gustavo Javier; Neumayer, Eric; Nunnenkamp, Peter
Fonte: John Wiley & Sons Ltd Publicador: John Wiley & Sons Ltd
Tipo: article; info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; Art??culo; publishedVersion
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.35%
Aid flows continue to be volatile and unpredictable, even though it is widely accepted that this erodes the effectiveness of foreign aid. We argue that fragmented donor???recipient relationships, notably the large number of minor aid relations that tend to be associated with donors' desire to ???fly their flag??? around the world, increase aid unpredictability. Our empirical analysis of the determinants of aid unpredictability suggests that aid becomes less predictable with more fragmented donor???recipient relationships. Specifically, the effect of fragmentation on overshooting previous spending plans is statistically significant and substantively important. In contrast, fragmented donor???recipient relationships have no effect on the shortfall of actual aid compared with donors' spending plans.

Taking Another Look at Multilateral Aid Flows: Reconsidering the Dynamics of the U.S.'s Strategic Use of Development Aid

Goodman, Jared
Fonte: Universidade Duke Publicador: Universidade Duke
Publicado em 25/04/2011 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.55%
Previous studies in the development aid literature have concluded that bilateral aid flows have been dominated by strategic objectives of major donors. Similar analysis of multilateral aid flows has determined that these allocations are more sensitive to economic need and quality of institutions and policy of the recipient country. A consensus has emerged that all bilateral aid is strategically driven while multilateral aid is independent of these political pressures. This paper challenges these conventional notions of the different aid types by analyzing allocation decisions from U.S. bilateral and multilateral aid agencies. It finds that strategic considerations influence both bilateral and multilateral aid. Donor influence over multilateral aid allocations requires a rethinking of how strategic aid is pursued. Improvements to the models of aid flows are offered, and a preliminary empirical analysis is attempted. It is found that the dynamics of strategic uses of aid are more complex that previous studies have concluded. The impact of these findings on the flows and efficacy of aid is discussed.; Honors Thesis, Department of Economics

Why aid is unpredictable: an empirical analysis of the gap between actual and planned aid flows

Canavire-Bacarreza, Gustavo Javier; Neumayer, Eric; Nunnenkamp, Peter
Fonte: Wiley Publicador: Wiley
Tipo: Article; PeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //2015 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.34%
Aid flows continue to be volatile and unpredictable, even though it is widely accepted that this erodes the effectiveness of foreign aid. We argue that fragmented donor–recipient relationships, notably the large number of minor aid relations that tend to be associated with donors' desire to ‘fly their flag’ around the world, increase aid unpredictability. Our empirical analysis of the determinants of aid unpredictability suggests that aid becomes less predictable with more fragmented donor–recipient relationships. Specifically, the effect of fragmentation on overshooting previous spending plans is statistically significant and substantively important. In contrast, fragmented donor–recipient relationships have no effect on the shortfall of actual aid compared with donors' spending plans.