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Regional and urban air quality modelling under a climate change scenario; Modelação da qualidade do ar regional e urbana em cenário de alteração climática

Sá, Maria Elisa Seabra Azevedo Cunha e
Fonte: Universidade de Aveiro Publicador: Universidade de Aveiro
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
Português
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The better understanding of the interactions between climate change and air quality is an emerging priority for research and policy. Climate change will bring changes in the climate system, which will affect the concentration and dispersion of air pollutants. The main objective of the current study is to assess the impacts of climate change on air quality in 2050 over Portugal and Porto urban area. First, an evaluation and characterization of the air quality over mainland Portugal was performed for the period between 2002 and 2012. The results show that NO2, PM10 and O3 are the critical pollutants in Portugal. Also, the influence of meteorology on O3, NO2 and PM10 levels was investigate in the national main urban areas (Porto and Lisboa) and was verified that O3 has a statistically significant relationship with temperature in most of the components. The results also indicate that emission control strategies are primary regulators for NO2 and PM10 levels. After, understanding the national air quality problems and the influence that meteorology had in the historical air quality levels, the air quality modelling system WRF-CAMx was tested and the required inputs for the simulations were prepared to fulfil the main goal of this work. For the required air quality modelling inputs...

Annual Decline in Pentraxin 3 Is a Risk of Vascular Access Troubles in Hemodialysis Patients

Nagai, Kei; Ueda, Atsushi; Saito, Chie; Zempo-Miyaki, Asako; Yamagata, Kunihiro
Fonte: Hindawi Publishing Corporation Publicador: Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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36.11%
Pentraxin 3 (PTX3), a multifunctional modulator of the innate immunoinflammatory response, is higher in patients undergoing hemodialysis than healthy control. Our study focused on annual change in PTX3 levels in patients with chronic hemodialysis, because regularly undergoing hemodialysis for many years modifies vascular inflammatory status. To demonstrate whether annual change in PTX3 is associated with vascular events, we measured blood levels of pentraxins (PTX3 and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP)) at baseline and in the next year in 76 hemodialysis patients and observed 20 patients with vascular access troubles during follow-up years. The annual decline in PTX3, but not hsCRP, is a significant risk of the incidence of vascular access trouble that is a critical and specific complication for hemodialysis patients (hazard ratio; 0.732 per +1 ng/mL/year in PTX3, *P = 0.039). This study is the first to focus on the annual change of pentraxins in a hemodialysis cohort.

Factors associated with the annual change in forced expiratory volume in 1 second of officially acknowledged victims of pollution-related illness in improved environments: a longitudinal study

Yano, Yudai; Senjyu, Hideaki; Tanaka, Takako; Asai, Masaharu; Yanagita, Yorihide; Nishinakagawa, Tsuyoshi; Miyamoto, Naomi; Kotaki, Kenji; Kozu, Ryo; Honda, Sumihisa
Fonte: The Society of Physical Therapy Science Publicador: The Society of Physical Therapy Science
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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46.14%
[Purpose] We examined factors affecting annual change in pulmonary function in residents previously exposed to air pollution in an area where pollution has been reduced and a long time period has elapsed. [Subjects and Methods] Data of 730 officially acknowledged victims of pollution-related illness from an annual survey during 2000 to 2009 were analyzed. The primary outcome was forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), along with factors such as age, body composition, smoking habits, respiratory symptoms, and classification of medical management (an index of the need for treatment). Multiple regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with the annual change in FEV1. [Results] Three significant factors were identified: smoking habit, classification of medical management, and gender. Smoking habits and classification of medical management had stronger effects on the annual change in FEV1 than gender. [Conclusion] With an improved environment, continuation of smoking accelerates the decline in FEV1.

Transient climate change and net ecosystem production of the terrestrial biosphere

Fonte: MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Publicador: MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
Formato: 23 p.; 345293 bytes; application/pdf
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The Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM version 4.1) is applied to assess the sensitivity of net ecosystem production (NEP) of the terrestrial biosphere to transient changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate in the 21st century. These NEP estimates provide a measure of the potential for various vegetated regions and countries to act as sinks or sources of atmospheric CO2. We use three transient climate change predictions over the period of 1977-2100 from the MIT Integrated Global System Model for assessment of the effects of different climate changes. Global annual NEP has large interannual variations and increases over time, thus representing a growing net carbon flux from the atmosphere to the biosphere. Latitudinal distribution of total annual NEP along 0.5 degree resolution latitudinal bands has a significant shift from the tropics to the northern mid- and high-latitudes over time. The sums of annual NEP over the period of 1990-2100 differ substantially among the twelve economic regions of the world. The results show that temporal dynamics and spatial distribution of annual NEP are very sensitive to the magnitudes and paths of temporal changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate.; Includes bibliographical references (p. 13-16).; Abstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)

Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the U.S.

Deschenes, Olivier; Greenstone, Michael
Fonte: MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Publicador: MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
Tipo: Relatório
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This paper produces the first large-scale estimates of the U.S. health related welfare costs due to climate change. Using the presumably random year-to-year variation in temperature and two state of the art climate models, the analysis suggests that under a “business as usual” scenario climate change will lead to an increase in the overall U.S. annual mortality rate ranging from 0.5% to 1.7% by the end of the 21st century. These overall estimates are statistically indistinguishable from zero, although there is evidence of statistically significant increases in mortality rates for some subpopulations, particularly infants. As the canonical Becker-Grossman health production function model highlights, the full welfare impact will be reflected in health outcomes and increased consumption of goods that preserve individuals’ health. Individuals’ likely first compensatory response is increased use of air conditioning; the analysis indicates that climate change would increase U.S. annual residential energy consumption by a statistically significant 15% to 30% ($15 to $35 billion in 2006 dollars) at the end of the century. It seems reasonable to assume that the mortality impacts would be larger without the increased energy consumption. Further...

Does Uncertainty Matter? A Stochastic Dynamic Analysis of Bankable Emission Permit Trading for Global Climate Change Policy

Zhang, Fan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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Emission permit trading is a centerpiece of the Kyoto Protocol which allows participating nations to trade and bank greenhouse gas permits under the Framework Convention on Climate Change. When market conditions evolve stochastically, emission trading produces a dynamic problem, in which anticipation about the future economic environment affects current banking decisions. In this paper, the author explores the effect of increased uncertainty over future output prices and input costs on the temporal distribution of emissions. In a dynamic programming setting, a permit price is a convex function of stochastic prices of electricity and fuel. Increased uncertainty about future market conditions increases the expected permit price and causes a risk-neutral firm to reduce ex ante emissions so as to smooth out marginal abatement costs over time. The convexity results from the asymmetric impact of changes in counterfactual emissions on the change of marginal abatement costs. Empirical analysis corroborates the theoretical prediction. The author finds that a 1 percent increase in electricity price volatility measured by the annualized standard deviation of percentage price change is associated with an average decrease in the annual emission rate by 0.88 percent. Numerical simulation suggests that high uncertainty could induce substantially early abatements...

Building Response Strategies to Climate Change in Agricultural Systems in Latin America

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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This report, Building Response Strategies to Climate Change in Agricultural Systems in Latin America, reports the results of action research to identify and prioritize stakeholder driven, locally relevant response options to climate change in Latin American agriculture. The study has three primary objectives. The first is to develop and apply a pilot methodology for assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change and for formulating adaptation response strategies to inform private and public sector decisions in the Latin America region. The study is principally concerned with adaptation responses to climate change, rather than mitigation. The second objective is to formulate recommendations for investments in each of the selected agro-ecosystems in a range of areas including agricultural technology adaptation, infrastructure investments, public and private sector support activities, and institutional and policy changes. The final objective is to disseminate the study results in the Latin America region and other parts of the world to help increase understanding of the impacts of climate change and alternative adaptation response strategies. This methodology can be used by the Bank to support client countries in defining response strategies...

Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Ethiopia

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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36.18%
The report is part of a broader study, the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC), which has two objectives: (a) to develop a global estimate of adaptation costs for informing international climate negotiations; and (b) to help decision makers in developing countries assess the risks posed by climate change and design national strategies for adapting to it. This paper is one of a series of country-level studies, where national data were disaggregated to more local and sector levels, helping to understand adaptation from a bottom-up perspective. Ethiopia is heavily dependent on rainfed agriculture. Its geographical location and topography in combination with low adaptive capacity entail a high vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. Historically the country has been prone to extreme weather variability. Rainfall is highly erratic, most rain falls with high intensity, and there is a high degree of variability in both time and space. Since the early 1980s, the country has suffered seven major droughts five of which have led to famines in addition to dozens of local droughts. Major floods also occurred in different parts of the country in 1988...

Economic of Adaptation to Climate Change : Bangladesh, Volume 1. Main Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate risks. Two-thirds of the nation is less than 5 meters above sea level and is susceptible to river and rainwater flooding, particularly during the monsoon. The Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP), adopted by the government of Bangladesh in 2009, seek to guide activities and programs related to climate change in Bangladesh. Until the past few years, climatic risks have been poorly reflected in national policies and programs Bangladesh. The objective of this study is to help decision makers in Bangladesh to better understand and assess the risks posed by climate change and to better design strategies to adapt to climate change. The study takes as its starting point the BCCSAP. It builds upon and strengthens the analytical models and quantitative assessment tools already in use in Bangladesh in support of the research and knowledge management theme of BCCSAP. The scope of this study is more limited than the BCCSAP, so the reported costs represent a lower bound on the total adaptation costs in Bangladesh. The study was developed in four discrete and somewhat independent components with varying degrees of analytical depth and quantification.

Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Mozambique

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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36.1%
This report is part of a broader global study, the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC), which has two principal objectives: (a) to develop a global estimate of adaptation costs for informing international climate negotiations; and (b) to help decision makers in developing countries assess the risks posed by climate change and design national strategies for adapting to it. The purpose of this study is to assist the Government of Mozambique in its efforts to understand the potential economic impacts of climate change and to support its efforts to develop sound policies and investments in response to these potential impacts. The Mozambique Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) study selected four sectors that are believed to be vulnerable to climate change: (1) agriculture, which employs over 70 percent of the population; (2) energy, particularly hydropower generation, which is dependent on water runoff; (3) transport infrastructure, notably roads; and (4) coastal areas, which do not conform to a "sector" but characterize specific geographical areas vulnerable to floods and storm surges directly and indirectly related to sea level rise. The report ends with a discussion of seven lessons learned from the study. Volume 1contains the final report...

Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Samoa

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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36.17%
Over the last two decades Samoa has suffered major damage from two cyclones in 1990-91, minor damage from a third cyclone in 2004, and an earthquake tsunami in 2009. Changes in the scale and impact of these types of natural disasters are likely to be important consequences of climate change for the country because the increases in sea level and in average sea surface temperatures will increase theintensity and damage from major storms. Other potential impacts are linked to changes in the weather patterns associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The primary concern focuses on the impact on agriculture, especially in periods of lower precipitation following strong El Niño episodes.This study examines the consequences of an increase in average temperatures of up to 1°C by 2050 and up to 2.75°C by 2100 for the frequency and intensity of major cyclones that hit the islands. Estimates of the economic damage caused by storms in the past have been used to calibrate a damage function that yields an estimated increase in the expected value of economic damage as the peak wind speeds for storms with return periods of 10...

Adaptation to Climate Change -- Vulnerability Assessment and Economic Aspects : Plurinational State of Bolivia

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) study estimates that it will cost $75 - $100 billion each year for developing countries to adapt to climate change from 2010 to 2050 (World Bank 2009a). The study funded by the governments of the Netherlands, United Kingdom, and Switzerland has two specific objectives. The first is to develop a global estimate of adaptation coststo inform the international community s efforts on how to tailor adequate and sustainable support regarding new and additional resources to help vulnerable developing countries meet adaptation costs. The second objective is to support decision makers in developing countries to better evaluate and assess the risks posed by climate change and to better design strategies to adapt to climate change. The EACC study includes a global track to meet the first study objective and a case study track to meet the second objective. The country track comprises seven countries: Ethiopia, Mozambique, Ghana, Bangladesh, Vietnam, The Plurinational State of Bolivia...

Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Ghana, Volume 1. Main Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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36.1%
The report is organized as follows. The next section puts the study into context by briefly discussing the global EACC study and the EACC methodology, which was applied in this study at a more disaggregated level. The section highlights the differential impacts of climate change among different regions of the world, including Africa. Chapter three presents an overview of the methodology used, including the key assumptions. An effort has been made to present this information in nontechnical language where possible. The more technical aspects of the study can be found in the annexes. The sector results are contained in chapter four. The chapter begins with an overview of the Ghanaian economy, followed by the climate projections for Ghana and the overall economic impacts. Next, the results for each sector are presented in three parts: climate change impacts, the adaptation options, and the adaptation costs. The final chapter concludes with a summary and policy implications.

Climate Change in the Himalayas : Current State of Knowledge

Gautam, Mahesh R.; Timilsina, Govinda R.; Acharya, Kumud
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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36.1%
This paper reviews the literature on the potential biophysical and economic impacts of climate change in the Himalayas. Existing observations indicate that the temperature is rising at a higher rate in Nepal and Chinese regions of the Himalayas compared with rest of the Himalayas. A declining trend of monsoon in the western Indian Himalayas and an increasing trend in the eastern Indian Himalayas have been observed, whereas increasing precipitation and stream flow in many parts of Tibetan Plateau are noted. Glaciers in both the eastern and western Himalayas are mostly retreating, but the majority of the glaciers in Karakorum are either stable or advancing slowly. Expansion of glacier lakes is reported, with the highest rate in Nepal and Bhutan. Most literature predicts increases in temperature and monsoon precipitations and decreases in winter precipitations in the future thereby leading to monsoon flooding and increased sediments in stream flow. Available hydrological simulations indicate reduced rainfall and shrinkage of glacier thereby leading to shortage of water supply for power generation and irrigation in winter particularly in highly glaciated basins. Projected economic impacts of glacial lake outburst floods can be substantial on the developed river basin with infrastructures and population centers. However...

Climate Variability and Change : A Basin Scale Indicator Approach to Understanding the Risk to Water Resources Development and Management

Strzepek, Kenneth; McCluskey, Alyssa; Boehlert, Brent; Jacobsen, Michael; Fant IV, Charles
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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36.27%
The impact of climate change is likely to have considerable implications for water resource planning, as well as adding to the risks to water infrastructure systems and effecting return on investments. Attention is increasingly being paid to adaptation strategies at the regional and basin level; however, the current paucity of information regarding the potential risk to hydrological systems at this scale presents a substantial challenge for effective water resources planning and investment. This study is intended to help bridge the gap between high-level climate change predictions and the needs of decision-makers, including World Bank Task Team Leaders, government agencies, investors, and national economic development planners, whose programs and investments will be affected by basin- and regional-level impacts of climate change on water resources and related infrastructures. This study evaluates the effects of climate change on six hydrological indicators across 8,413 basins in World Bank client countries. These indicators...

Understanding the Impact of Climate Change on Hydropower : The Case of Cameroon

Grijsen, Johan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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36.22%
The Africa energy unit (AFTEG) of the World Bank has obtained financing from the trust fund for environmentally and socially sustainable development (TFESSD) funded by Finland and Norway for work towards understanding the impact of climate change on hydropower: the case of Cameroon. The development objective of this activity is: (i) to develop tools for assessing climate change impacts on the operation of hydraulic infrastructure such as regulating dams and hydropower plants in the Sanaga river basin, and (ii) to take steps towards an institutional framework for climate resilient water resources management in Cameroon. The aim of this initiative is to build resilience to climate risks into water management in general and hydropower development in Cameroon in particular. The study includes three components: (i) develop suitable climate change scenarios for the Sanaga basin, support the electricity development corporation (EDC) of Cameroon to develop a reliable hydrological model for the Sanaga river basin...

Climate Resilient Ningbo Project : Local Resilience Action Plan, Volume 1. Final Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Environmental Analysis (CEA); Economic & Sector Work
Português
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Ningbo serves as the Chinese pilot city for the World Bank Climate Resilient Cities (CRC) Program. The CRC program aims to, prepare local governments in the East Asia region to better understand the concepts and consequences of climate change; how climate change consequences contribute to urban vulnerabilities; and what is being done by city governments in East Asia and around the world to actively engage in learning capacity building, and capital investment programs for building sustainable, resilient communities. This local resilience action plan (LRAP) had four parts. Part one investigated natural hazards weather observations and climate models. Seven key climatic parameters were selected: temperature, rainfall, drought, heat wave, flood, tropical cyclone, and sea level rise. Part two examined how the city functions, and pursues socio-economic development through a city vulnerability assessment. The qualitative, city vulnerability assessment was based on five sectors- people, infrastructure, environment...

Yemen - Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on the Water and Agricultural Sectors and the Policy Implications

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Environmental Analysis (CEA)
Português
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36.1%
Yemen is particularly vulnerable to climate change and variability impacts because of its water dependence and current high levels of water stress. This natural resource challenge is compounded by demographic pressure, weak governance and institutions, and by a deteriorating economic situation. The economic and social outlook is not bright, and planning and international support will certainly be needed to help Yemen to adapt to the further stresses caused by climate change and variability. In the light of these challenges, the government has developed a National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA). In support of this, the World Bank commissioned a series of studies of climate change in two phases: the first phase projected climate change scenarios for Yemen, and phase two assessed climate change impacts on the agricultural and water sectors, and outlined possible policy and program responses. The present study is essentially a digest of the work done to date, and is intended as a contribution to Government's process of assessing vulnerability and adaptation options by: (i) assessing possible impacts on the water balance and on agriculture and rural livelihoods; and (ii) reviewing adaptation options and the priorities for government policies...

Brazil Low Carbon Case Study : Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Energy-Environment Review; Economic & Sector Work
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36.11%
This report presents the partial results related to land use, land-use change and the forestry sector from a larger multisectoral low-carbon study for Brazil. Since the 1992 Kyoto Accord, Brazil has been committed to reducing its carbon emissions. The overall aim of this study was to support Brazil's efforts to identify opportunities to reduce its emissions in ways that foster economic development. The primary objective was to provide the Brazilian government with the technical inputs needed to assess the potential and conditions for low-carbon development in key emitting sectors. To this end, the World Bank study adopted a programmatic approach in line with the Brazilian government's long-term development objectives. These are: to anticipate the future evolution of Brazil's emissions to establish a Reference Scenario; identify and quantify lower carbon-intensive options to mitigate emissions, as well as potential options for carbon uptake; assess the costs of these low-carbon options, identify barriers to their adoption...

Numerical modelling of the impact of climate change on the morphology of Saint-Lawrence tributaries

Verhaar, Patrick M.
Fonte: Université de Montréal Publicador: Université de Montréal
Tipo: Thèse ou Mémoire numérique / Electronic Thesis or Dissertation
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Cette thèse examine les impacts sur la morphologie des tributaires du fleuve Saint-Laurent des changements dans leur débit et leur niveau de base engendrés par les changements climatiques prévus pour la période 2010–2099. Les tributaires sélectionnés (rivières Batiscan, Richelieu, Saint-Maurice, Saint-François et Yamachiche) ont été choisis en raison de leurs différences de taille, de débit et de contexte morphologique. Non seulement ces tributaires subissent-ils un régime hydrologique modifié en raison des changements climatiques, mais leur niveau de base (niveau d’eau du fleuve Saint-Laurent) sera aussi affecté. Le modèle morphodynamique en une dimension (1D) SEDROUT, à l’origine développé pour des rivières graveleuses en mode d’aggradation, a été adapté pour le contexte spécifique des tributaires des basses-terres du Saint-Laurent afin de simuler des rivières sablonneuses avec un débit quotidien variable et des fluctuations du niveau d’eau à l’aval. Un module pour simuler le partage des sédiments autour d’îles a aussi été ajouté au modèle. Le modèle ainsi amélioré (SEDROUT4-M), qui a été testé à l’aide de simulations à petite échelle et avec les conditions actuelles d’écoulement et de transport de sédiments dans quatre tributaires du fleuve Saint-Laurent...