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World Food Prices and Human Development: Policy Simulations for Archetype Low-Income Countries

Lofgren, Hans
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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In recent years, world food prices have increased and fluctuated widely. This paper explores the impact of international food prices and domestic policies on Millennium Development Goal (MDG) and macro indicators for two archetype low-income countries, a net food exporter and a net food importer, using Maquette for MDG Simulations (MAMS), a Computable General Equilibrium model. The simulations, which cover the period 2011-2025, indicate that the size of positive (negative) effects on macro and MDG indicators of a food export (import) price increase depend on the initial gross domestic product share for food exports (imports), leaving countries that are heavily involved in international food trade more exposed to international shocks. Given relatively low elasticity estimates, the impact of changes in food prices on undernourishment are relatively marginal. Flexible responses (in terms of production shares, whether output is exported or sold at home, and whether domestic demanders buy imports or domestic output) enable countries to benefit from or be less hurt by price changes. The case for policy responses to higher import prices is stronger for the net food importer. An untargeted food subsidy...

Import Protection, Business Cycles, and Exchange Rates : Evidence from the Great Recession

Bown, Chad P.; Crowley, Meredith A.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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This research estimates the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on import protection policies over 1988:Q1-2010:Q4 for the United States, European Union, and three other industrialized economies. First, estimates on a pre-Great Recession sample provide evidence of three key relationships for the US and EU. Increases in domestic unemployment rates and real appreciations in bilateral exchange rates led to substantial increases in antidumping and related forms of import protection. Furthermore, economies historically imposed these bilateral import restrictions on trading partners going through their own periods of weak economic growth. Second, estimates from the pre-Great Recession model predict a major trade policy response during 2008:Q4-2010:Q4, given the realized macroeconomic shocks. New US and EU trade barriers were projected to cover up to an additional 15 percentage points of nonoil imports, well above the baseline level of 2-3 percent of import coverage immediately preceding the crisis. Third, re-estimating the model on data from the Great Recession period illustrates why the realized trade policy response differed from model predictions based on historical data. While exchange rate movements played an important role in limiting new import protection...

Turkey - Country Economic Memorandum : Volume 2. Sustaining High Growth, Selected Issues

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM), prepared in collaboration with the Turkish authorities, summarizes recent accomplishments in achieving high growth and analyzes remaining public policy challenges and options available to the authorities to meet these challenges. The country seeks to double the nominal per capita income of its population by 2013. It wants this rapid growth to be inclusive of all segments of society, regions, and economic sectors-especially through improved labor market performance leading to more and better jobs in the economy. At the same time, the authorities want to improve the quality of public services which they see as an important complement to economic growth in improving quality of life. They also believe that the potentially negative environmental consequences of the period of rapid growth ahead need to be managed so that the positive welfare gains from higher per capita income levels do not become eroded by environmental nuisances. Turkey has succeeded in restoring macroeconomic stability and rapid growth...

Ghana - Promoting Growth, Reducing Poverty

Alam, Asad
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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The policy reforms since 1983 have reduced the fiscal deficit and inflation, helped improve infrastructure services, and shifted relative prices and incentives towards the tradable sector, in general, and towards exports, in particular. The key element of fiscal consolidation up to 1991 was the growth in government revenues, whose share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose from 6 percent in 1983 to 13 percent in 1986 and to 16 percent in 1991. Higher revenues made it possible to reduce the fiscal deficit and, at the same time, increase public investment in infrastructure which had virtually collapsed prior to 1983. Prudent monetary management also led to inflation falling from 123 percent in 1983 to 40 percent in 1986 and 18 percent in 1991. The resulting improvements in macroeconomic stability made it possible for farms and firms to respond to the shift in production incentives induced by the policy reforms. As a result of these reforms, the economy turned around. Although economic activity witnessed its biggest surge during the early years of the Economic Recovery Program (ERP) (5.3 percent annually during 1983-86)...

Knowledge and Development: A Cross-Section Approach

Chen, Derek H. C.; Dahlman, Carl J.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Português
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This paper assesses the effects of knowledge on economic growth. By using an array of indicators, each of which represents an aspect of knowledge, as independent variables in cross-section regressions that span 92 countries for the period 1960 to 2000, they show that knowledge is a significant determinant of long-term economic growth. In particular, the authors find that the stock of human capital, the level of domestic innovation and technological adaptation, and the level of information and communications technologies (ICT) infrastructure all exert statistically significant positive effects on long-term economic growth. More specifically with regard to the growth effects of the human capital stock, they find that an increase of 20 percent in the average years of schooling of a population tends to increase the average annual economic growth by 0.15 percentage point. In terms of innovation, the authors find that a 20 percent increase in the annual number of USPTO patents granted is associated with an increase of 3.8 percentage points in annual economic growth. Lastly...

Off and Running? Technology, Trade and the Rising Demand for Skilled Workers in Latin America

Sanchez-Paramo, Carolina; Schady, Norbert
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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The authors describe the evolution of relative wages in five Latin American countries-Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico. They use repeated cross-sections of household surveys, and decompose the evolution of relative wages into factors associated with changes in relative supply and relative demand. The authors have three main conclusions: 1) Increases in the relative wages of the most skilled (university-educated) workers took place concurrently with increases in their relative abundance in all of the countries except Brazil. This is strong evidence of increases in the demand for skilled workers. 2) Increases in the wage bill of skilled workers occurred largely within sectors, and in the same sectors in different countries, which is consistent with skill-biased technological change. 3) Trade appears to be an important transmission mechanism. Increases in the demand for the most skilled workers took place at a time when countries in Latin America considerably increased the penetration of imports, including imports of capital goods. The authors show that changes in the volume and research and development intensity of imports are significantly related to changes in the demand for more skilled workers in Latin America. Their research complements earlier work on the effects of technology transmitted through trade on productivity and on the demand for skilled labor.

Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics--Global 2010 : Lessons from East Asia and the Global Financial Crisis

Lin, Justin Yifu; Pleskovic, Boris
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
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The Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics (ABCDE) is a forum for discussion and debate of important policy issues facing developing countries. The conferences emphasize the contribution that empirical economic research can make to understanding development processes and to formulating sound development policies. Conference papers are written by researchers in and outside the World Bank. This year's ABCDE included sessions on the following themes: industrial policy and development; social capital, institutions, and development; financial crisis and regulation; the road to a sustainable global economic system; and innovation and competition. In light of the global financial crisis, speakers touched on fundamental questions: what caused the current crisis, and how can the world economy recover?Are the standard prescriptions of development economics adequate to the task? Should developing countries alter their basic growth strategies? What is the proper role of the state? Should developing countries reexamine their commitment to free trade? How can global imbalances be rectified (especially between China and the United States)? Within the globalized financial system...

Economic Impacts of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization

Ianchovichina, Elena; Martin, William
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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Ianchovichina and Martin present estimates of the impact of accession by China and Chinese Taipei to the World Trade Organization. China is estimated to be the biggest beneficiary, followed by Chinese Taipei and their major trading partners. Accession will boost the labor-intensive manufacturing sectors in China, especially the textiles and apparel sector that will benefit directly from the removal of quotas on textiles and apparel exports to North America and Western Europe. Consequently, developing economies competing with China in third markets may suffer relatively small losses. China has already benefited from the reforms undertaken between 1995 and 2001 (US$31 billion) and trade reforms after accession will lead to additional gains of around $US10 billion. Accession will have important distributional consequences for China, with wages of skilled workers and unskilled nonfarm workers rising in real terms and relative to farm incomes. Reduction in agricultural protection may hurt some farmers. Possible policy changes considered to offset these impacts include reductions in barriers to labor mobility and improvements in rural education. The authors estimate that the removal of the hukou system would raise farm wages and allow 28 million workers to migrate to nonfarm jobs. If...

The Perversity of Preferences : The Generalized System of Preferences and Developing Country Trade Policies, 1976-2000

Ozden, Caglar; Reinhardt, Eric
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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26.33%
Industrial countries maintain special tariff preferences, namely the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), for imports from developing countries. Critics have highlighted the underachieving nature of such preferences, but developing countries continue to place the GSP at the heart of their agenda in multilateral negotiations. What effect do such preferences have on a recipient's own trade policies? The authors develop and test a simple theoretical model of a small country's trade policy choice, using a dataset of 154 developing countries from 1976 through 2000. They find that countries removed from the GSP adopt more liberal trade policies than those remaining eligible. The results, corrected for endogeneity and robust to numerous alternative measures of trade policy, suggest that developing countries may be best served by full integration into the reciprocity-based world trade regime rather than continued GSP-style special preferences.

Environment Matters at the World Bank : Annual Review 2004

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
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36.09%
This Annual Review of Environment Matters, dedicated to Economic Growth and the Environment, brings together a wide variety of external and internal viewpoints on the challenges ahead, and the progress that is taking place. In this issue, three major partner countries-China, India and Mexico-present their perspectives. Among other topics, this edition features the Bank's recent research on what happens to environment during growth, and the different tools available to promote environmentally, and socially sustainable economic growth. It also includes reviews of the Bank's environmental programs in developing countries and its global engagement. The review includes viewpoints on the environment and competitiveness; on harmonizing environmental concerns and economic growth from the Indian perspective; integrating rapid growth and environmental protection as a challenge for China; mainstreaming and infrastructure; and, health-driven environmental issues. Moreover, the review features articles such as the environment during growth - accounting for governance and vulnerability...

The World Bank Annual Report 2002; Banque Mondial rapport annuel 2002*Banco Mundial informe anual 2002; Volume 1. Main report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: World Bank Annual Report; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
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This annual report covers the period from July 1, 2001, to June 30, 2002, and is prepared by the Executive Directors of both the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA). The first of two volumes discusses the World Bank's goals and strategies; overviews Bank activities in fiscal year 2002; examines progress on the Millennium Development Goals and project and loan performance; addresses the social, institutional, and economic dimensions of poverty; presents regional analyses of Bank operations; and provides organizational information. The second volume comprises the complete Management's Discussion and Analysis, audited financial statments of the IBRD and IDA, and appendixes.

The World Bank Annual Report 2012; Volume 2. Responding with Knowledge and Experience

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: World Bank Annual Report
Português
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The 2012 annual report of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA) contains messages from both outgoing President Robert B. Zoellick and incoming President Dr. Jim Yong Kim. The Board of Directors statement highlights the Bank's achievements in 2012. The report showcases the Corporate Scorecard, presented in four tiers, providing information on the Bank's overall performance and results. Tier I provides the global development context. Tier II includes aggregate data collected through the standardized sector indicators. Tier III shows the overall success of Bank activities in achieving their development goals, as well as the Bank's operations effectiveness. Tier IV presents the Bank's organizational effectiveness and modernization. The report also discusses the financial commitments and resources, an operational summary, and World Bank lending by theme and sector for 2007-2012. Additional information on activities and outcomes is available in the annexes.

Malaysia Economic Monitor, June 2014 : Boosting Trade Competitiveness

World Bank
Fonte: Bangkok Publicador: Bangkok
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling; Economic & Sector Work
Português
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This economic update provides an overview for 2013 and early 2014 in Malaysia and an analysis of structural trends in trade competitiveness. The economy overcame a weak start in 2013 to experience GDP growth through 2014. The improved performance was driven mainly by a recovery in exports, including of the long-ailing electrical and electronics sector. The outlook remains favorable and GDP is expected to continue growing through 2015. Growth will be sustained by positive external conditions, with foreign demand outweighing headwinds in domestic demand. Investment and imports of capital goods will remain robust as large projects move forward. Medium-term fiscal consolidation remains on track and the debt-to-GDP ratio has stabilized, but additional spending measures are needed for the Government to meet its 2014 deficit target. The central bank has signaled that it may have to tighten policy to avoid the build-up of financial imbalances. Labor markets are healthy, and Malaysia has enjoyed higher employment levels...

Taking Stock of Antidumping, Safeguards, and Countervailing Duties, 1990-2009

Bown, Chad P.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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This paper examines the evolving, cross-country use of antidumping, safeguard, and countervailing duty policies -- temporary trade barriers (TTBs) -- over the period 1990-2009. The author constructs two new measures of imported products subject to the combined use of these TTBs before applying these measures to new data drawn from the World Bank's Temporary Trade Barriers Database. The research establishes a number of facts regarding trends in historical use to benchmark against policy activity during the global economic crisis of 2008-2009. The 2008-2009 economic shock mostly accentuates patterns and trends already visible in the pre-crisis data: e.g., while the major users of such policies overall combined to increase the product lines subject to TTBs by 25 percent during the crisis, this was driven almost entirely by developing economies which increased their product coverage by 40 percent. On the export side, a previously unidentified feature of the data is that a much larger share of China's exports to other developing economies is subject to foreign-imposed antidumping than its exports to developed economies. The evidence confirms this feature is shared by a number of other major developing economy exporters...

Demand Growth versus Market Share Gains : Decomposing World Manufacturing Import Growth

Aksoy, M. Ataman; Ng, Francis
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.33%
This paper decomposes manufacturing import growth rates in a selected set of large industrial and developing countries (five industrial and eight developing) and measures the relative contributions of domestic demand and market share changes for two separate periods 1991/92 - 2001/02 and 2001/02 - 2007/08. It also shows the shares of imports both from the rest of the world and from developing countries for aggregate and three-digit manufacturing sectors. Import growth is much higher during the 2000s driven by higher demand growth rates. While market share changes explain most of the growth during the 1990s, its contribution is relatively smaller during the 2000s. Imports from developing countries have grown much faster both in industrial and developing country markets driven primarily by market share changes. However, more than half of market share gains by developing countries are caused by the exports of China, which accounts for more than 70 percent of market share gains of developing countries in the sample countries during the 2000s. Despite rapid growth...

Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics Global 2007 : Rethinking Infrastructure for Development

Bourguignon, François; Pleskovic, Boris
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.09%
The Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics (ABCDE) is one of the best-known conferences for the presentation and discussion of new knowledge on development. It is an opportunity for many of the world's finest development thinkers to present their ideas. The 2007 ABCDE -- held in Tokyo on May 29-30, 2006, and cosponsored by the Government of Japan -- was devoted to "Rethinking Infrastructure for Development." The conference opened with remarks by Sadakazu Tanigaki, Japan's Minister of Finance, and Paul Wolfowitz, President of the World Bank. Their remarks were followed by keynote addresses by Donald Kaberuka, President of the African Development Bank; Sadako Ogata, President of Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA); and Joseph Stiglitz, University Professor at Columbia University. Six papers were presented addressing the issues of infrastructure for growth, sustainable development and infrastructure, rural infrastructure and agricultural development, and infrastructure and regional cooperation. François Bourguignon...

Cambodia Economic Update, April 2014 : Coping with Domestic Pressures and Gaining from a Strengthened Global Economy

World Bank
Fonte: Phnom Penh Publicador: Phnom Penh
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.33%
Cambodia's economy has withstood domestic pressures and managed to sustain its high growth driven by its usual engines of growth. The external sector improved as a result of slower imports due to dampened domestic demand. The post-election adverse effects slowed down the demand for imports, while export growth advanced. Inflation rose to 4.7 percent year-on-year at the end of 2013, up from 2.5 percent at the end of 2012. Inflation is projected to remain in mid-single-digits over the short term. Financial deepening continues but the gap between credit and deposit growth rates has widened, reducing bank liquidity. Government revenue growth has moderated, resulting in an increase in the fiscal deficit. The latest joint World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) debt-sustainability analysis (DSA) conducted in 2013 shows that Cambodia's debt-distress rating remains low, with all debt-burden indicators projected to be below respective thresholds. The prospects for sustaining high growth appear favorable...

Lebanon : Policy Note on Irrigation Sector Sustainability

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Policy Note; Economic & Sector Work
Português
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This Policy Note has three main objectives : a) formulate strategic choices related to the sustainability of irrigated agriculture in Lebanon. b) recommend institutional strengthening of water resource management in the irrigation sector in general, especially for operations and maintenance (O&M). c) define the Bank's future involvement in the irrigated agriculture sector. As demand for domestic, industrial, and agriculture water increases, Lebanon could face chronic water shortages in the next two decades, particularly in the summer months. In fact, signs of such shortages are already apparent, data on water demand and water balance are conflicting, but they generally indicate that the overall annual water balance will practically go into deficit just after 2020, while the dry season balance will be in deficit in 2004. In addition to existing structural problems, the quality of existing water resources is being undercut by pollution, such as, direct discharges of municipal and industrial wastewater, uncontrolled solid waste disposal...

Structural Adjustment and Forest Resources : The Impact of World Bank Operations

Pandey, Kiran D.; Wheeler, David
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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26.26%
Over two decades, the World Bank has undertaken many structural adjustment operations with governments of developing countries. During negotiations for structural adjustment loans (SALs), partner governments agree to specific policy reforms, whose implementation becomes a condition for disbursement of SAL funds. Conditionality varies with local circumstances, but generally supports privatization of state enterprises, liberalization of the domestic economy, and openness in international trade. Structural adjustment operations have often been controversial because they are explicitly political. Opposition, or support reflects ideological perspectives, perceptions of who gains, and who loses economically from a SAL, or beliefs about its environmental, and social impacts. Environmental groups express particular concern about SALs' impacts on the rate of deforestation. Debate about adjustment, and deforestation has been fueled largely by anecdotes, and a few country cases bases on limited time-series data. The authors broaden the analysis by combining a complete record of Bank SAL operations...

Gold Mining in the Peruvian Amazon: Global Prices, Deforestation, and Mercury Imports

Swenson, Jennifer J.; Carter, Catherine E.; Domec, Jean-Christophe; Delgado, Cesar I.
Fonte: Public Library of Science Publicador: Public Library of Science
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 19/04/2011 Português
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Many factors such as poverty, ineffective institutions and environmental regulations may prevent developing countries from managing how natural resources are extracted to meet a strong market demand. Extraction for some resources has reached such proportions that evidence is measurable from space. We present recent evidence of the global demand for a single commodity and the ecosystem destruction resulting from commodity extraction, recorded by satellites for one of the most biodiverse areas of the world. We find that since 2003, recent mining deforestation in Madre de Dios, Peru is increasing nonlinearly alongside a constant annual rate of increase in international gold price (∼18%/yr). We detect that the new pattern of mining deforestation (1915 ha/year, 2006–2009) is outpacing that of nearby settlement deforestation. We show that gold price is linked with exponential increases in Peruvian national mercury imports over time (R2 = 0.93, p = 0.04, 2003–2009). Given the past rates of increase we predict that mercury imports may more than double for 2011 (∼500 t/year). Virtually all of Peru's mercury imports are used in artisanal gold mining. Much of the mining increase is unregulated/artisanal in nature, lacking environmental impact analysis or miner education. As a result...