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Measuring the Impacts of Global Trade Reform with Optimal Aggregators of Distortions

Laborde, David; Martin, Will; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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Traditional weighted-average measures of trade distortions are widely used in analyzing global and regional reforms, despite well-known deficiencies. This paper develops and applies optimal aggregators for the real-world case of multiple countries and commodities with much more detailed information on trade than on production and consumption. The approach reflects the fact that different aggregators are needed for expenditure on imported goods and for tariff revenues, and allows for incorporation of both intensive and extensive margins of adjustment to reform. Applications confirm that the technique is straightforward enough for widespread use, and point to close to a doubling of the welfare gains at the intensive margin when using the highest possible level of international commodity disaggregation, with larger gains in developing regions than in the industrial countries. The measured income gains increase along the entire path of liberalization, with slightly larger increases in the earlier stages, where the gaps between the responses of the expenditure and tariff revenue aggregators are largest. Sensitivity analysis suggests that...

Coordinating Tax Reforms in the Poorest Countries : Can Lost Tariffs be Recouped?

Wagle, Swarnim
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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36.48%
A revenue-neutral switch from trade taxes to domestic consumption taxes is fraught with implementation challenges in countries with a large informal sector. It is shown for a sample of low-income countries over 25 years that they have had a mixed record of offsetting reductions in trade tax revenue. The paper then analyzes the specific case of Nepal, using a unique data set compiled from unpublished customs records of imports, tariffs and all other taxes levied at the border. It estimates changes to revenue and domestic production associated with two sets of reforms: i) proportional tariff cuts coordinated with a strictly enforced value-added tax; and ii) proposed tariff cuts under a regional free trade agreement. It is shown that a revenue-neutral tax reform is conditional on the effectiveness with which domestic taxes are enforced. Furthermore, loss of revenue as a result of intra-regional free trade can be minimized through judicious use of Sensitive Lists that still cover substantially all the trade as required by Article XXIV of the GATT.

Assessing the Direct Economic Effects of Reallocating Irrigation Water to Alternative Uses Concepts and an Application

Andriamananjara, Soamiely; Brenton, Paul; von Uexkull, Jan Erik; Walkenhorst, Peter
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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This study discusses potential economic implications for Nigeria of an Economic Partnership Agreement with the European Union. It uses the World Bank s Tariff Reform Impact Simulation Tool to assess the effects of preferential tariff liberalization with respect to the European Union. The results suggest that the impact of an Economic Partnership Agreement on total imports into Nigeria will be slight. This is in part because the Agreement will likely allow the most protected sectors to be excluded from liberalization, and also because where substantial tariffs are involved much of the increase in imports from the European Union will occur at the expense of other suppliers of imports. It is this trade diversion, arising from the discriminatory nature of the EPA, which generates a negative welfare impact of the tariff reforms. One way for Nigeria to limit these losses is to pursue non-preferential trade liberalization before implementing an EPA. The paper looks at the large number of import bans in Nigeria and argues that the positive impact on welfare of removing these import bans is likely to be substantial. Their removal would undermine a major reason for cross border smuggling and pave the way for a return to normal regional trade flows. The paper shows how an Economic Partnership Agreement presents an opportunity for accelerating the reforms that are needed to support a strategy to increase regional and global trade integration. Such an agreement is more likely to have positive and significant impacts when integrated into a comprehensive strategy toward competitiveness and alleviation of the supply constraints that have stifled the impact of previous trade agreements. Key issues that should be addressed include liberalization and regulatory strengthening of services sectors to ensure that all firms in Nigeria have access to efficiently produced backbone services and initiatives to address the country s poor trade logistics performance.

Smoke in the Water : The Use of Tariff Policy Flexibility in Crises

Foletti, Liliana; Fugazza, Marco; Nicita, Alessandro; Olarreaga, Marcelo
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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56.55%
As the economic crisis deepens and widens, fears of a return to the protectionist spiral of the 1930s become more common. However, an important difference between the 1930s and today is the existence of the World Trade Organization and the legal limits it imposes on the protectionist responses members can pursue. The objective of this paper is threefold. First, to assess the extent to which applied tariff can legally be raised without violating tariff-bound obligations, and compare it with what is economically possible. Second, to examine what has been the protectionist response of individual countries when facing an economic crisis since the creation of the WTO. Finally, to predict how far the protectionist responses will go during the current crisis. Results suggest that the policy space left when looking at what is economically possible is indeed quite large. However, in the recent past very little of the available policy space has been used by countries suffering from an economic crisis. Our predictions for the current crisis are modest tariff hikes in the order of 8 percent.

Assessing the Adjustment Implications of Trade Policy Changes Using TRIST : Tariff Reform Impact Simulation Tool

Brenton, Paul; Saborowski, Christian; Staritz, Cornelia; von Uexkull, Erik
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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46.48%
TRIST is a simple, easy to use tool to assess the adjustment implications of trade reform. It improves on existing tools. First, it is an improvement in terms of accuracy because projections are based on revenues actually collected at the tariff line level rather than simply applying statutory rates. Second, it is transparent and open; runs in Excel, with formulas and calculation steps visible to the user; and is open-source and users are free to change, extend, or improve according to their needs. Third, TRIST has greater policy relevance because it projects the impact of tariff reform on total fiscal revenue (including VAT and excise) and results are broken down to the product level so that sensitive products or sectors can be identified. And fourth, the tool is flexible and can incorporate tariff liberalization scenarios involving any group of trading partners and any schedules of products. This paper describes the TRIST tool and provides a range of examples that demonstrate the insights that the tool can provide to policy makers on the adjustment impacts of reducing tariffs.

The Doha Trade Round and Mozambique

Arndt, Channing
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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36.46%
This paper considers the potential implications of the Doha Development Agenda, as well as other trade liberalization scenarios, for Mozambique. An applied general equilibrium model, which accounts for high marketing margins and home consumption in the Mozambique economy, is linked to results from the GTAP model of global trade. In addition, a microsimulation module is used to consider the subsequent implications of trade liberalization for poverty. The implications of trade liberalization, particularly the Doha scenarios, are found to be relatively small. Presuming that a more liberal trading regime will positively influence growth in Mozambique, an opportunity exists to put in place such a regime without imposing significant adjustment costs.

Emerging Economies, Trade Policy, and Macroeconomic Shocks

Bown, Chad P.; Crowley, Meredith A.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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36.53%
This paper estimates the impact of aggregate fluctuations on the time-varying trade policies of 13 major emerging economies over 1989-2010. By 2010, these World Trade Organization member countries collectively accounted for 21 percent of world merchandise imports and 22 percent of world gross domestic product. The paper examines determinants of carefully constructed, bilateral measures of new import restrictions on products arising through the temporary trade barrier (TTB) policies of antidumping, safeguards, and countervailing duties. The approach explicitly addresses changes to the institutional environment facing these emerging economies as they joined the WTO and adopted disciplines to restrain their application of other trade policies, such as applied import tariffs. The paper presents evidence of a counter-cyclical relationship between macroeconomic shocks and new TTB import restrictions in addition to an important role for fluctuations in bilateral real exchange rates. Furthermore, for the subset of major Group of 20 emerging economies...

Developing Country Trade Policies and Market Access Issues : 1990-2012

Michalopoulos, Constantine; Ng, Francis
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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The study presents a comprehensive review of developing country trade policies and market access issues as they evolved over the period 1990-2012. The main findings are, first, that applied tariffs as well as traditional core non-tariff measures have declined significantly over time in both developed and developing countries. Second, the instruments of protection used by developed and developing countries are becoming increasingly similar: trade remedies, especially anti-dumping are the instruments of choice for all except low-income developing countries. Third, agriculture is the main sector where developing countries face access problems in OECD markets. Fourth, regional and other preferential trade agreements are both a result and a cause of the lack of progress in multilateral trade negotiations. They violate the basic World Trade Organization tenet of most favored nation and thus pose a potential threat to the multilateral system and a potential stimulus to further multilateral collaboration. Fifth...

Trade Policy Instruments over Time

Bown, Chad P.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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36.47%
This paper surveys political-economic research on the variety of instruments that governments use to conduct international trade policy. It presents key insights on the relationships between instruments such as tariffs, quotas, voluntary export restraints, and other nontariff barriers, as well as the ebb and flow of the national use of temporary trade barriers such as antidumping, countervailing duties, and safeguards. The survey examines trends in use of these trade policy instruments over recent history; and it reviews the major theoretical and empirical explanations behind, and interrelationships between, their uses. Finally, the paper highlights potential institutional impacts of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and subsequent World Trade Organization (WTO) on choice of policy instruments, as well as how multilateral, unilateral, and preferential tariff liberalization may introduce political-economic shocks and affect incentives over time for how governments rely on different instruments.

Stabilization and Association Process in the Banlkans : Integration Options and their Assessment

Kaminski, Bartlomiej; de la Rocha, Manuel
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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36.51%
The stabilization and association process launched by the European Union in the aftermath of the Kosovo war in 1999 has created a new policy environment for five South East European countries (SEE-5). In exchange for EU assistance, the prospect of EU accession, and the continuation of preferential access to EU markets, SEE-5 governments have to upgrade their institutions and governance by European standards and engage in mutual regional cooperation, including stability pact member-countries. The authors examine the benefits to SEE-5 of trade liberalization along two dimensions and suggest conditions under which these could be maximized. They argue that the process of regional trade liberalization should be extended to multilateral liberalization, aligning SEE-5 most-favored-nation (MFN) applied tariffs on industrial products with EU MFN tariffs, and that priority be given to structural reforms and regional cooperation aimed at trade facilitation. As inter-industry trade rather than intra-industry trade dominates intra-SEE-5 trade...

Formulas for Failure?

Laborde, David; Martin, Will
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Português
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36.55%
This paper views tariff-cutting formulas as a potential solution to the free-rider problem that arises when market opening is negotiated bilaterally and extended on a most-favored-nation basis. The negotiators in the Doha Agenda chose formulas that are ideal from an economic efficiency viewpoint in that they most sharply reduce the highest and most economically-costly tariffs. When the political support that gave rise to the original tariffs is considered, however, this approach appears to generate very high political costs per unit of gain in economic efficiency. The political costs associated with the formulas appear to have led to strong pressure for many, complex exceptions, which both lowered and increased uncertainty about members’ market access gains. Where tariff cuts focus on applied rates, it seems likely that a proportional cut rule would reduce the political costs of securing agreements. However, detailed examination of the Doha proposals with their product exceptions suggests that negotiators are likely to find cuts with exceptions politically attractive but economically costly when cuts are based on bound tariffs with different degrees of binding overhang.

What Do We Know About Preferential Trade Agreements and Temporary Trade Barriers?

Bown, Chad P.; Karacaovali, Baybars; Tovar, Patricia
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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Two of the most important trade policy developments to take place since the 1980s are the expansion of preferential trade agreements and temporary trade barriers, such as antidumping, safeguards, and countervailing duties. Despite the empirical importance of preferential trade agreements and temporary trade barriers and the common feature that each can independently have quite discriminatory elements, relatively little is known about the nature of any relationships between them. This paper surveys the literature on some of the political-economic issues that can arise at the intersection of preferential trade agreements and temporary trade barriers and uses four case studies to illustrate variation in how countries apply the World Trade Organization's global safeguards policy instrument. The four examples include recent policies applied by a variety of types of countries and under different agreements: large and small countries, high-income and emerging economies, and free trade areas and customs unions. The analysis reveals important measurement and identification challenges for research that seeks to find evidence of systematic relationships between the formation of preferential trade agreements...

Impact of WTO Accession and the Customs Union on the Bound and Applied Tariff Rates of the Russian Federation

Shepotylo, Oleksandr; Tarr, David G.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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After 18 years of negotiations, Russia has joined the World Trade Organization. This paper assesses how the tariff structure of the Russian Federation will change as a result of the phased implementation of its World Trade Organization commitments between 2012 and 2020 and how it has changed as a result of its agreement to participate in a Customs Union with Kazakhstan and Belarus. The analysis uses trade data at the ten digit level, which allows the first accurate assessment of the impact of these policy changes. It finds that World Trade Organization commitments will progressively and significantly lower the applied tariffs of the Russian Federation. After all commitments are implemented, tariffs will fall from 11.5 percent to 7.9 percent on an un-weighted average basis, or from 13.0 percent to 5.8 percent on a weighted average basis. The average "bound" tariff rate of Russia under its World Trade Organization commitments will be 8.6 percent, that is, 0.7 percentage points higher than the applied tariffs. Russia's commitments represent significant tariff liberalization...

Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda

Anderson, Kym; Martin, Will
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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36.55%
Anderson and Martin examine the extent to which various regions, and the world as a whole, could gain from multilateral trade reform over the next decade. They use the World Bank's linkage model of the global economy to examine the impact first of current trade barriers and agricultural subsidies, and then of possible outcomes from the World Trade Organization's Doha round. The results suggest moving to free global merchandise trade would boost real incomes in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia (and in Cairns Group countries) proportionately more than in other developing countries or high-income countries. Real returns to farm land and unskilled labor and real net farm incomes would rise substantially in those developing country regions, thereby alleviating poverty. A Doha partial liberalization could take the world some way toward those desirable outcomes, but more so the more agricultural subsidies are disciplined and applied tariffs are cut.

The Economic Community of West African States : Fiscal Revenue Implications of the Prospective Economic Partnership Agreement with the European Union

Zouhon-Bi, Simplice G.; Nielsen, Lynge
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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36.48%
This paper applies a partial equilibrium model to analyze the fiscal revenue implications of the prospective economic partnership agreement between the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the European Union. The authors find that, under standard import price and substitution elasticity assumptions, eliminating tariffs on all imports from the European Union would increase ECOWAS' imports from the European Union by 10.5-11.5 percent for selected ECOWAS countries, namely Cape Verde, Ghana, Nigeria, and Senegal. This increase in imports would be accompanied by a 2.4-5.6 percent decrease in total government revenues, owing mainly to lower fiscal revenues. Tariff revenue losses should represent 1 percent of GDP in Nigeria, 1.7 percent in Ghana, 2 percent in Senegal, and 3.6 percent in Cape Verde. However, the revenue losses may be manageable because of several mitigating factors, in particular the likelihood of product exclusions, the length of the agreement's implementation period, and the scope for reform of exemption regimes. The large country-by-country differences in fiscal revenue loss suggest that domestic tax reforms and fiscal transfers within ECOWAS could be important complements to the agreement's implementation.

Doha Merchandise Trade Reform : What’s at Stake for Developing Countries?

Anderson, Kym; Martin, Will; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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36.56%
This paper provides new estimates of the global gains from multilateral trade reform and their distribution among developing countries in the presence of trade preferences. Particular attention is given to agriculture, as farmers constitute the poorest households in developing countries but are the most assisted in rich countries. The latest GTAP database (Version 6.05) and the LINKAGE model of the global economy are used to examine the impact first of current merchandise trade barriers and agricultural subsidies, and then of possible reform outcomes from the WTO's Doha Development Agenda. The results suggest moving to free global merchandise trade would boost real incomes in Sub-Saharan Africa proportionately more than in other developing countries or high-income countries, despite a terms of trade loss in parts of that region. Net farm incomes would rise substantially in that and other developing country regions, thereby alleviating rural poverty. A Doha partial liberalization could move the world some way toward those desirable outcomes, but more so the more developing countries themselves cut applied tariffs, particularly on agricultural imports.

Trade Policy Flexibilities and Turkey : Tariffs, Antidumping, Safeguards, and WTO Dispute Settlement

Bown, Chad P.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.63%
Trade policy commitments to lower import tariffs and to maintain tariffs at low levels entail short and long-run political-economic costs and benefits. Empirical work examining the relationship between such commitments and the exercise of trade policy flexibilities is still relatively nascent, especially for emerging economies. This paper provides a rich, empirically-based assessment of ways that Turkey exercised trade policy flexibilities during the global economic crisis of 2008-11. First, and despite multilateral and customs union commitments that might limit changes to applied tariffs, Turkey made changes to both its applied Most Favored Nation and preferential tariffs that cumulatively affect nearly 9 percent of manufacturing imports and 10 percent of import product lines. Second, Turkey's cumulative application of temporary trade barrier (TTB) policies -- antidumping, safeguards and countervailing duties -- are estimated to impact by 2011 an additional 4 percent of imports and 6 percent of product lines. Other surprising results on Turkey's use of flexibilities include: extending the duration of previously imposed antidumping and safeguards beyond expected removal dates...

The Doha Development Agenda : What's on the Table?

Martin, Will; Mattoo, Aaditya
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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36.58%
The outlines of a potential agreement, emerging after seven years of negotiations, imply that Doha offers three key benefits: reduced uncertainty of market access in goods and services; improved market access in agriculture and manufacturing; and the mobilization of resources to deal with the trade problems of least developed countries. WTO Members have offered to make large reductions in legally bound levels of protection in goods and services. The reductions in currently applied levels of protection are smaller. For the least developed countries, the proposed "duty free and quota free" access will only add significantly to their access under existing preferential access arrangements if industrial and developing country members include vital tariff lines. The initiatives on trade facilitation and aid for trade can play a valuable catalytic role in promoting reform and mobilizing assistance, but substantial effort is still needed to translate notional benefits into actual gain.

Politically Optimal Tariffs : An Application to Egypt

Madani, Dorsati; Olarreaga, Marcelo
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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36.49%
Egyptian economic history has been influenced by the import-substitution industrialization approach to development, dating back to Gamal Abdel Nasser's Pan-Arabic and socialist movement in the 1950s. Two major waves of liberalization have marked the government's efforts to rationalize and modernize the economy-the Infitah (opening) promoted by Anwar Sadat in the 1980s, and further trade and privatization efforts by Hosni Mubarak in the 1990s. Nonetheless, the extent of trade liberalization does not compare well with similar countries. Despite a decade of liberalization, the trade regime is characterized by deliberate and gradual reforms. By 1999 these reforms had led to average tariffs close to 30 percent, with high dispersion and escalation, well above those in comparable countries. provide a political economy analysis of the difficulties of liberalizing tariffs in Egypt in general, and in its specific industries. They present the theoretical and empirical models and discuss the results. The authors also explore the potential effects of the Euro-Med agreement for Egypt The authors provide a political economy analysis of the difficulties of liberalizing tariffs in Egypt in general...

The Pattern of Antidumping and Other Types of Contingent Protection

Bown, Chad P.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
Português
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46.48%
Many of the major economies in the multilateral, rules-based trading system find themselves in a situation in which their applied tariff rates are quite close to the tariff binding levels that form their legal commitments at the World Trade Organization (WTO). This implies that they cannot simply raise applied tariff rates to respond to domestic industry demands for additional trade barriers to protect them from imports. One of the fundamental and potentially WTO-legal ways in which national governments can respond to domestic industry calls for additional protection from imports is by resorting to trade 'remedy' policy instruments such as antidumping, safeguards, and countervailing duty (anti-subsidy) policies. This note, which describes newly collected data made available through the World Bank-sponsored global antidumping database, reports on the combined use of such policies, comprehensively collected across the major WTO member economies.