Sob a teoria de agência e o contexto de gerenciamento de resultados, o objetivo do trabalho foi estudar a relação entre o gerenciamento de resultados (GR) e o custo da dívida (Ki) das empresas brasileiras de capital aberto, no período de 1996 a 2007. Para isso, foram levantadas duas hipóteses de pesquisa quanto à possível relação entre GR e Ki: H1- as variáveis são inter-relacionadas; e H2- a relação é unidirecional, em que o Ki é influenciado positivamente pelo GR. Os pressupostos levantados, por meio da literatura existente, para a formulação da primeira hipótese são de que, almejando melhores condições contratuais, como o custo da dívida, o custo atual ou passado motiva a empresa a gerenciar o resultado corrente para obter melhores condições de custo futuro ou corrente. Dessa forma, as empresas, intencionalmente, procurariam gerenciar seus resultados, motivadas pelo custo da dívida. Todavia, há suporte teórico para que a relação entre essas variáveis seja unidirecional, com o gerenciamento de resultados influenciando o custo da dívida, sustentando a segunda hipótese. Um por exemplo disso é o gerenciamento de resultados, que é percebido como fator de assimetria de informação pelos credores, os quais...

Mestrado em Economia; In our research, we study the effect of public debt on economic growth for annual and 5-year average growth rates, as well as the existence of non-linearity effects of debt on growth for 14 European countries since 1970 until 2012. We also consider debt-to-GDP ratio interactions with monetary, public finance, institutional and macroeconomic variables. We conclude that debt has a negative impact of -0.01% for each increment of 1% of public debt, although debt service has a 10 times worse effect on growth. We reach average thresholds for annual and 5-year average of 75% and 74%, respectively. Belonging to Eurozone has a detrimental effect of at least -0.5% for real per capita GDP, and banking crisis is the most harmful crisis for the growth phenomena.

We study the effect of public debt on economic growth for annual and 5-year average growth rates, as well as the existence of non-linearity effects of debt on growth for 14 European countries from 1970 until 2012. We also consider debt-to-GDP ratio interactions with monetary, public finance, institutional and macroeconomic variables. Our results show a negative impact of -0.01% for each 1% increment of public debt, although debt service has a 10 times worse effect on growth. In addition, we find average debt ratio thresholds of around 75%. Belonging to the Eurozone has a detrimental effect of at least -0.5% for real per capita GDP, and the banking crisis is the most harmful crisis for growth.

Doutoramento em Finanças; This dissertation consists of three major empirical studies about debt maturity following two introductory chapters describing the data used and also the most relevant theoretical and empirical work in the existent literature. In the first empirical study we examine the debt maturity trend from 1980 to 2004 for US firms and identify if the changes in the debt maturity determinants over time help to explain that same trend. We find evidence of a statistically significant downtrend. Unconstrained firms have significantly higher average debt maturity than constrained ones. We model the average debt maturity using the major determinants found in the most relevant literature. The results give mixed support to most of the existing theories. Opposite to the agency costs theory, we find that firms with higher growth options have higher average debt maturity ratios. Being a regulated firm yields more long term debt and larger firms have higher debt maturity in their capital structures. The signaling hypothesis finds weak support in the results. We provide evidence that our model significantly overestimates the average debt maturity and that the changes occurred over time in the firm characteristics used in the model do not explain the overall trend observed in the debt maturity ratio. In the second empirical study we investigate the relation between debt maturity and macroeconomic conditions for US industrial firms from 1974 to 2004. We find some evidence that firms hold more short-term debt during economic recessions. However...

The data and analysis presented in this edition of global development finance are based on actual flows and debt related transactions for 2010 reported to the World Bank Debtor Reporting System (DRS) by 129 developing countries. The reports confirm that in 2010 international capital flows to developing countries surpassed preliminary estimates and returned to their pre-crisis level of $1.1 trillion, an increase of 68 percent over the comparable figure for 2009. Private capital flows surged in 2010 driven by a massive jump in short-term debt, a strong rebound in bonds and more moderate rise in equity flows. Debt related inflows jumped almost 200 percent compared to a 25 percent increase in net equity flows. The rebound in capital flows was concentrated in a small group of 10 middle income countries where net capital inflows rose by an average of nearly 80 percent in 2010, almost double the rate of increase (44 percent) recorded by other developing countries. These 10 countries accounted for 73 percent of developing countries gross national income (GNI)...

This paper examines the current stage of development of government securities markets in the non-GCC MENA region focusing in five countries that have government bond markets with a minimum size and greater potential for market development: Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia. The analysis focuses on the five key building blocks that normally sustain deep and liquid public debt markets: (i) money markets; (ii) primary market (issuance policy and placement mechanisms); (iii) secondary market organization; (iv) investor base; and (v) clearing and settlement infrastructure. The study shows that despite country differences, several common weaknesses in the key building blocks explain the underdevelopment of MENA bond markets. Most important among these are a symbiotic relationship between banks and Governments caused by lack of alternative investments that makes banks act as captive demand and dominate bond markets, opportunistic primary issuance practices, and excess liquidity in the financial system. These demand and supply characteristics have led to highly concentrated buy-and-hold portfolios by banks and State-owned institutions...

Public debt has surged during the current global economic crisis and is expected to increase further. This development has raised concerns whether public debt is starting to hit levels where it might negatively affect economic growth. Does such a tipping point in public debt exist? How severe would the impact of public debt be on growth beyond this threshold? What happens if debt stays above this threshold for an extended period of time? The present study addresses these questions with the help of threshold estimations based on a yearly dataset of 101 developing and developed economies spanning a time period from 1980 to 2008. The estimations establish a threshold of 77 percent public debt-to-GDP ratio. If debt is above this threshold, each additional percentage point of debt costs 0.017 percentage points of annual real growth. The effect is even more pronounced in emerging markets where the threshold is 64 percent debt-to-GDP ratio. In these countries, the loss in annual real growth with each additional percentage point in public debt amounts to 0.02 percentage points. The cumulative effect on real GDP could be substantial. Importantly...

This paper analyzes results of a survey on debt management strategies conducted by the Banking and Debt Management Department of the World Bank. The analysis focuses on (1) whether a public debt management strategy exists in a given country, (2) whether it is made public, and (3) in which form it is imparted. The paper analyzes the distribution of the latter characteristics over different regions, income groups, and levels of indebtedness using graphical analysis. Using regression analysis, it investigates the extent to which basic economic factors can explain the characteristics of public debt management strategies across countries.

This paper introduces a new data set on the stock and structure of domestic debt in 36 low-income countries over the period 1971-2011. It characterizes the recent trends regarding the do-mestic public debt of low-income countries and explores the relevance of different arguments put forward on the benefits and costs of government borrowing in local public debt markets. The main stylized fact emerging from the data is the increase in domestic government debt since 1996. It is also observed that poor countries have been able to increase the share of long-term in-struments over time and that maturity lengthening went together with a decrease in borrowing costs. However, the concentration of the investor base, mainly dominated by commercial banks and the central bank, may crowd out lending to the private sector.

Coping with Floods, Strengthening Growth, from the South East Europe Regular Economic Report explains that South East Europe s (SEE6) s economy is estimated to have stagnated in 2014 on the back of flood-induced contraction in Serbia and a sharp slowdown in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro. The regional economy grew 0.2 percent in 2014, insufficient to improve living standards or to make a dent in the region s high unemployment rate. External demand for SEE6 exports was a key positive contributor to economic growth in 2014 as the region s exports gained market share, despite the weak Eurozone performance and disappointing global recovery. Domestic demand remained subdued because of delayed or reduced public and private investments and weak consumption. Devastating floods in large parts of the region further weighed on the SEE6 economic activity in 2014. The weak regional economic performance masks notable differences among the SEE6 countries. In 2014, the Serbian economy is estimated to have contracted by 2 percent for a third time since the global crisis and Bosnia and Herzegovina is stagnating. Economic growth rates in Kosovo and Montenegro are estimated to have moderated in 2014. Only Albania and FYR Macedonia showed signs of a more sustained recovery on the back of increasing exports...

The paper finds a moderate evolution in public debt ratios since debt relief among heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) and multilateral debt relief initiative (MDRI) recipient countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, with certain exceptions. For eight countries the authors find rapid rates of debt accumulation, which can return them to pre-HIPC debt levels in only a few years. Short-term domestic debt has, despite early fears, in general not filled the borrowing space created by debt relief. However, external debt accumulation on commercial terms in some cases presages repayment spikes, which may combine with short-term domestic obligations to amplify refinancing risk and cause abrupt reductions in public spending, with damaging consequences for development. Finally, despite reduced debt, African economies continue to be commodity dependent and prone to shocks. As global interest rates and commodity prices revert to historically more customary levels, these countries should remain prudent: avoid tax-base erosion, prevent large recurrent spending hikes...

Since the late 1970s, there has been a major cultural shift in the attitudes of Australian households towards debt. Specifically, households have moved away from a belief in the importance of a 'nest egg' of savings, to an environment of over-spending. Average household expenditure is around 170% of disposable income, and since mid-2002, households have entered a period of dis-savings. Economic theory dictates that consumption and borrowing is critical to Australia's economic growth. Generating home ownership, wealth creation, revenue and employment; household debt arguably 'forms the base of the capitalist pyramid, where what we owe makes more money for the system than what we earn.' However, the excessive levels of household debt that Australia is currently experiencing are detrimental to the individual, the community and the economy. Those that would refute such a claim may point to the composition and distribution of household debt. It would be noted that 84% of debt assumed by households is the result of housing related loans and investment rather than excessive use of personal credit. Further that generally high-income household carry higher debt levels than low-income households. Finally, that for the average Australian household...

Private debt flows to developing countries surged to record levels over the period 2003-07. A few low-income countries have gained access to the international bond market but the bulk of the flows have continued to go to just a few large middle-income countries. Most low-income countries still heavily depend on concessional loans and grants from the official sector to meet their financing needs. The paper provides an overview of low-income countries' access to cross-border bank lending and bond issuance in the international market over the past few decades. It highlights some stylized facts that characterize salient features of low-income countries' experience in external borrowing from the private sector and discusses the various factors that influence governments' and corporations' decisions to seek external financing along with creditors' decisions to provide the financing. The paper concludes by assessing the prospects for low-income countries' access to private debt markets over the medium term.

While debt-financed productive public investment raises a country s debt ratios in the short run, it can also generate higher growth, revenues, and exports, leading over time to lower debt ratios. This paper develops a framework to assess whether countries meet the conditions for realizing the net benefits over the costs of public investment debt financing. While it is possible to achieve debt sustainability with an appropriate mix of concessional and non-concessional financing, this is a necessary but not sufficient condition. It is also important to ensure the operational viability of public investment projects by having in place adequate project management: (i) project screening and appraisal, (ii) a clear connection between capital and recurrent expenditures once the projects are launched, and (iii) safeguards for appropriate project implementation and facilities operations. To illustrate the strength of these results, the paper carries out three measurement exercises: (a) a simulation of the degree to which the ratio of optimal public investment responds to changes in key parameters related to project management in a general equilibrium model; (b) application of the public investment management (PIMa) index to benchmark a country's public investment management capacity; and (c) presentation of the results of the Investment...

This paper addresses whether microcredit participants in Bangladesh are trapped in poverty and debt, as many critics have argued in recent years. Analysis of data from a long panel survey over a 20-year period confirms this is not the case, although numerous participants have been with microcredit programs for many years. The results of the analysis suggest that participants derive a variety of benefits from microcredit: It helps them to earn income and consume more, accumulate assets, invest in children's schooling, and be lifted out of poverty. This is not to say that non-participants have failed to progress over the same period. Both participants and non-participants have gained as the economy has grown; however, the rates of poverty reduction have been higher for participants. Testing the net effect of microcredit programs requires applying an econometric method that controls for why some households participated and others did not, conditional on their initial characteristics. In addition, the method must control for time-varying...

Is generalized debt relief an effective development strategy, or should assistance be tailored to countries' characteristics? To answer this question, the authors build a simple model in which recipient governments reveal their creditworthiness if donors offer them to choose between aid and debt relief. Since offering such a menu is costly, it is preferred by donors only when the cost of assistance is low, and the probability that an indebted country is creditworthy is high enough. For lower probabilities and higher costs of assistance, donors prefer a policy of only debt relief. Very limited aid is the preferred policy only for high costs of assistance, and low probabilities that the government is creditworthy.

This paper analyzes the recent growth of government domestic debt, including central bank debt, using a new data base on government domestic debt in developing countries with large, open financial systems. On average, government domestic debt grew much faster than GDP between 1994 and 2004 and became larger than foreign debt. The rapid growth of domestic debt reflects financial crises, the growth of central bank debt and the greater attractiveness to governments of issuing domestic debt as well as the recent increase in demands for it. Both its attractiveness and the increased demands for it reflect the current benign international environment to some degree. The main risk of government debt, domestic or foreign, remains its overall size relative to a country's fiscal, financial, and political institutions. While government domestic debt can help the domestic private capital market, large domestic debt, like large external debt, has risks. For example, there can be "sudden stops" in the demand for domestic debt as well as in foreign lending. Governments need to be aware of the risks and burdens in domestic debt issue-crowding out small borrowers...

In the sequence of the recent financial and economic crisis, the recent public debt accumulation is expected to hamper considerably business cycle stabilization, by enlarging the budgetary consequences of the shocks. This paper analyses how the average level of public debt in a monetary union shapes optimal discretionary fiscal and monetary stabilization policies and affects stabilization welfare. We use a two-country micro-founded New-Keynesian model, where a benevolent central bank and the fiscal authorities play discretionary policy games under different union-average debt-constrained scenarios. We find that high debt levels shift monetary policy assignment from inflation to debt stabilization, making cooperation welfare superior to noncooperation. Moreover, when average debt is too high, welfare moves directly (inversely) with debt-to-output ratios for the union and the large country (small country) under cooperation. However, under non-cooperation, higher average debt levels benefit only the large country.

Nesta tese são desenvolvidos três estudos sobre as reservas internacionais brasileiras, utilizando diferentes técnicas econométricas, com o objetivo de determinar a influência de medidas absolutas e relativas de reservas sobre o rating soberano de crédito e o spread soberano, bem como o nível adequado para garantir a liquidez externa. As análises foram feitas com dados mensais do período jan/2000-jun/2008. No primeiro estudo, mostrou-se que diferentes medidas de reservas internacionais apresentam efeito significativo na explicação do rating soberano de crédito, através de modelos ordered logit para a média dos ratings emitidos pelas três principais agências (Moody's, Standard & Poors e Fitch). Entretanto, o indicador de maior poder explicativo não foi o nível absoluto de reservas, mas a razão entre dívida pública externa líquida e PIB. Outras variáveis de destacada importância na maioria dos modelos foram o percentual da dívida interna de curto prazo, investimento estrangeiro direto/PIB e inflação. Variáveis tradicionalmente utilizadas como indicadores de liquidez, como razão reservas/importações e conta corrente/PIB, não foram significativas na maioria dos modelos. Os resultados confirmam os indícios contidos no discurso das agências de rating...

The ratios of public debt as a share of GDP of Brazil, Colombia and Mexico were 12 percentage points higher on average during the period 1996-2005 than in the period 1990-1995. Costa Rica's debt ratio remained stable but at a high level; near 50 per cent. Is there reason to be concerned about the solvency of the public sector in these economies? We provide an answer to this question based on the quantitative predictions of a variant of the framework proposed by Mendoza and Oviedo (2007). This methodology yields forward-looking estimates of debt ratios that are consistent with fiscal solvency, for a government that faces revenue uncertainty and can issue only non-state-contingent debt. In this environment, aversion to a collapse in outlays leads the government to respect a "natural debt limit" equal to the annuity value of the primary balance in a "fiscal crisis". A fiscal crisis occurs after a long sequence of adverse revenue shocks, and public outlays adjust to their tolerable minimum. The debt limit also represents a credible commitment to remain able to repay even in a fiscal crisis. The debt limit is not, in general, the same as the sustainable debt, which is driven by the probabilistic dynamics of the primary balance. The results of a baseline scenario question the sustainability of current debt ratios in Brazil and Colombia...