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Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan - Poverty Update : Main Report

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Português
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56.36%
This report is a joint product of the Jordanian Department of Statistics (DOS) and the World Bank. The report has four goals: 1) update the official Jordanian poverty line based on the 2006 Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) using the methodology previously applied for the poverty assessment in 2002; 2) describe recent poverty trends; 3) understand the reasons for the discrepancy between the results of formal statistical analysis and popular perceptions of poverty trends; and 4) provide preliminary information about the distributional impacts of fuel subsidies and measures to compensate for fuel subsidy elimination. Using 2006 as the base year, the Jordanian poverty line was JD 46.3 per person per month. In 2006, 13 percent of the population was below the poverty line. The highest rate of poverty was observed in Mafraq governorate. Although Amman has the lowest poverty rate of all governorates, it is home to the largest number of poor individuals due to the concentration of population in Amman. Several sub-districts...

Was Growth in Egypt Between 2005 and 2008 Pro-Poor? From Static to Dynamic Poverty Profile

Marotta, Daniela; Yemtsov, Ruslan; El-Laithy, Heba; Abou-Ali, Hala; Al-Shawarby, Sherine
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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46.46%
This paper presents a detailed picture of how sustained growth in Egypt over 2005-2008 affected different groups both above and below the poverty line. This analysis, based on the Household Income, Expenditure and Consumption Panel Survey conducted by Egypt s national statistical agency, compares the changes in the static poverty profiles (based on growth incidence curves on a cross-section of data) with poverty dynamics (relying on panel data, growth incidence curves and transition matrices). The two approaches yield contrasting results: the longitudinal analysis reveals that growth benefited the poor while the cross-sectional analysis shows that the rich benefitted even more. The paper also shows the importance of going beyond averages to look at the trajectories of individual households. Panel data analysis shows that the welfare of the average poor household increased by almost 10 percent per year between 2005 and 2008, enough to move out of poverty. Conversely however, many initially non-poor households were exposed to poverty. As a matter of fact...

Did Higher Inequality Impede Growth in Rural China?

Benjamin, Dwayne; Brandt, Loren; Giles, John
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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46.45%
This paper estimates the relationship between initial village inequality and subsequent household income growth for a large sample of households in rural China. Using a rich longitudinal survey spanning the years 1987-2002, and controlling for an array of household and village characteristics, the paper finds that households located in higher inequality villages experienced significantly lower income growth through the 1990s. However, local inequality s predictive power and effects are significantly diminished by the end of the sample. The paper exploits several advantages of the household-level data to explore hypotheses that shed light on the channels by which inequality affects growth. Biases due to aggregation and heterogeneity of returns to own-resources, previously suggested as candidate explanations for the relationship, are both ruled out. Instead, the evidence points to unobserved village institutions at the time of economic reforms that were associated with household access to higher income activities as the source of the link between inequality and growth. The empirical analysis addresses a number of pertinent econometric issues including measurement error and attrition...

Poverty and Income Seasonality in Bangladesh

Khandker, Shahidur R.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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76.42%
Seasonal poverty in Bangladesh, locally known as monga, refers to seasonal deprivation of food during the pre-harvest season of Aman rice. An analysis of household income and expenditure survey data shows that average household income and consumption are much lower during monga season than in other seasons, and that seasonal income greatly influences seasonal consumption. However, lack of income and consumption smoothing is more acute in greater Rangpur, the North West region, than in other regions, causing widespread seasonal deprivation. The analysis shows that agricultural income diversification accompanied by better access to micro-credit, irrigation, education, electrification, social safety net programs, and dynamic labor markets has helped reduce seasonality in income and poverty in regions other than Rangpur in the recent past. Hence, government policies should promote income diversification through infrastructure investments and provide income transfers to the targeted poor to contain income seasonality and poverty in this impoverished part of Bangladesh.

Rising Income Inequality in China : A Race to the Top

Luo, Xubei; Zhu, Nong
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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56.49%
Income inequality in China has risen rapidly in the past decades across regions, between rural and urban sectors, and within provinces. The dynamics of divergence across these sub-national areas have taken the form of a "race to the top" - meaning that all segments of the population, including the poor with low education in lagging inland rural areas, have experienced gains in average income. The largest gains have been registered by those with higher income and education in leading coastal urban areas. Using the China Economic, Population, Nutrition and Health Survey data of 1989 and 2004, we show that the most important factors explaining overall inequality are differential returns to schooling and sector of employment. A decomposition analysis based on household income determination shows that the increase in returns to education explains two-thirds of income changes in urban areas and one-sixth in rural areas. The widening income gaps are the consequence of higher growth in leading urban and coastal areas and that the skilled population has benefited more from the economic reforms carried out during the last 25 years. The authors argue that rising income inequality can be part of a normal process of development at a certain stage...

Accounting for Mexican Income Inequality during the 1990s

De Hoyos, Rafael E.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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56.37%
The author implements several inequality decomposition methods to measure the extent to which total household income disparities can be attributable to sectoral asymmetries and differences in skill endowments. The results show that at least half of total household inequality in Mexico is attributable to incomes derived from entrepreneurial activities, an income source rarely scrutinized in the inequality literature. He shows that education (skills) endowments are unevenly distributed among the Mexican population, with positive shifts in the market returns to schooling associated with increases in inequality. Asymmetries in the allocation of education explain around 20 percent of overall household income disparities in Mexico during the 1990s. Moreover, the proportion of inequality attributable to education endowments increases during stable periods and reduces during the crisis. This pattern is explained by shifts in returns to schooling rather than changes in the distribution of skills. Applying the same techniques to decompose within-sector income differences...

Nonfarm Activity and Rural Income Inequality : A Case Study of Two Provinces in China

Zhu, Nong; Luo, Xubei
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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56.31%
Nonfarm activity plays an increasingly important role in rural household income. Based on data from the Living Standards Measurement Study in the provinces of Hebei and Liaoning, the authors study the distribution of nonfarm income in rural China. First, they assume nonfarm income as an exogenous transfer to total income to decompose the Gini index. Second, they assume nonfarm income as a potential substitute for farm income to take household choices into account and simulate household income. The results show that nonfarm activity reduces rural income inequality by raising the income of poor households to a larger extent than that of rich households. Improving rural infrastructure and implementing universal basic education are critical to build up the capacity of households (in particular, poor households) to participate in nonfarm activity. Strengthening the links between farm activity and nonfarm activity is essential to optimize the contribution of nonfarm activity to pro-poor rural economic development.

Estimating Household Responses to Trade Reforms : Net Consumers and Net Producers in Rural Mexico

Porto, Guido G.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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56.28%
This paper explores an empirical methodology to assess the impacts of trade reforms on household behavior in developing countries. It focuses on consumption and income responses: when price reforms take place, households modify consumption and production decisions and local labor markets adjust. The paper proposes a joint estimator of demand and wage price elasticities from survey data. The method uses an empirical model of demand to extract price information from unit values, and uses this information to estimate the response of households to price reforms. By correcting unit values for quality effects and measurement error, the method overcomes the problem of the endogeneity of unit values. By endogeneizing household income, the model corrects potential biases in the estimation of own- and cross-price elasticities in consumption. The paper applies the method to an expenditure and income survey for rural Mexico. It shows that the corrections suggested in this paper are empirically important. In particular, it shows that allowing for consumption and income responses is a key element of an accurate empirical assessment of trade policy.

Poverty Traps and Nonlinear Income Dynamics with Measurement Error and Individual Heterogeneity

Antman, Francisca; McKenzie, David J.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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56.19%
Theories of poverty traps stand in sharp contrast to the view that anybody can make it through hard work and thrift. However, empirical detection of poverty traps is complicated by the lack of long panels, measurement error, and attrition. This paper shows how dynamic pseudo-panel methods can overcome these difficulties, allowing estimation of non-linear income dynamics and testing for the presence of poverty traps. The paper explicitly allows for individual heterogeneity in income dynamics to account for the possibility that particular groups of individuals may face traps, even if the average individual does not. These methods are used to examine the evidence for a poverty trap in labor earnings, income, and expenditure in Mexico and are compared to panel data estimates from a short rotating panel. The results do find evidence of nonlinearities in household income dynamics and demonstrate large bias in the panel data estimates. Nevertheless, even after allowing for heterogeneity and accounting for measurement error, the paper finds no evidence of the existence of a poverty trap for any group in the sample.

Cigarette Consumption, Taxation, and Household Income : Indonesia Case Study

Adioetomo, Sri Moertiningsih; Djutaharta, Triasih; Hendratno
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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56.33%
Cigarette consumption has been increasing in Indonesia, as in many other developing countries, causing a rising burden of disease and premature death. Higher excise taxes have proved effective in many countries in reducing cigarette consumption and raising government revenues. This study examines the effect of higher prices/taxes on the decision to smoke, the quantity of cigarettes consumed by smokers in different income groups in Indonesia, and government revenues. It uses 1999 Social and Economic Survey (SUSENAS) household data, with households as the unit of analysis. There was at least one smoker in 57 percent of all households. Most households smoked kretek cigarettes with filters (64 percent), or without filters (31 percent). Average household monthly cigarette consumption was 18 packs of 16 cigarettes. Per capita cigarette consumption was higher for higher income households: 7.83 packs per month, compared to 4 packs for low-income households. On average, households spent 6.22 percent of their total income on cigarettes and kreteks...

Dynamics of Income Inequality and Welfare in Latvia in the Late 1990s

Fofack, Hippolyte; Monga, Celestin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Português
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56.27%
This paper analyzes the dynamics of poverty and income inequality during the recovery phase of the transition that characterized the Republic of Latvia in the late 1990s. Despite a continued rise in income inequality, empirical evidence suggests an improvement in living standards, owing largely to a significant surge in per capita income growth, particularly in urban areas. In a context of rising income inequality and widening urban-rural income and poverty gaps, the benefits of growth were not equally distributed, and poverty persisted in a number of regions (particularly the regions of Latgale and Vitzeme) and among some socioeconomic groups (particularly households deriving their main income from social benefits). In addition to income inequality and asset endowments, poverty appears to be highly correlated with a number of labor market-related variables, particularly unemployment, suggesting that the labor market could be an important transmission channel from growth to poverty. However, though positive...

Linking Representative Household Models with Household Surveys for Poverty Analysis: A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies

Agénor, Pierre-Richard; Chen, Derek H.C.; Grimm, Michael
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Português
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56.4%
The authors compare three approaches to linking representative-household macro models with micro household income data in terms of their implications for measuring the poverty and distributional effects of policy shocks. These approaches are a simple micro-accounting method, an extension of that method to account for changes in employment structure, and the Beta distribution approach. Even though in the authors simulation exercises the three methods do not lead to fundamentally different results in absolute terms, they show that potential differences in the measurement of distributional and poverty effects of policy shocks can be very large.

Global Income Distribution : From the Fall of the Berlin Wall to the Great Recession

Lakner, Christoph; Milanovic, Branko
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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46.46%
The paper presents a newly compiled and improved database of national household surveys between 1988 and 2008. In 2008, the global Gini index is around 70.5 percent having declined by approximately 2 Gini points over this twenty year period. When it is adjusted for the likely under-reporting of top incomes in surveys by using the gap between national accounts consumption and survey means in combination with a Pareto-type imputation of the upper tail, the estimate is a much higher global Gini of almost 76 percent. With such an adjustment the downward trend in the Gini almost disappears. Tracking the evolution of individual country-deciles shows the underlying elements that drive the changes in the global distribution: China has graduated from the bottom ranks, modifying the overall shape of the global income distribution in the process and creating an important global "median" class that has transformed a twin-peaked 1988 global distribution into an almost single-peaked one now. The "winners" were country-deciles that in 1988 were around the median of the global income distribution...

Changing Patterns of Household Expenditures on Energy : A Case Study of Indonesia and Pakistan

Bacon, Robert; Bhattacharya, Soma; Kojima, Masami
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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56.35%
This paper applies a decomposition technique using a log mean Divisia index to two sets of household surveys taken several years apart in Indonesia and Pakistan. The methodology enables separation of changes in expenditure on different types of energy into changes in prices, quantities, the share of households using the given form of energy, and total household income. The technique was applied to electricity, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), kerosene, and gasoline in Indonesia, and to natural gas, kerosene, LPG, purchased firewood, collected firewood, dung cake, and other forms of biomass in Pakistan. The methods of analysis presented in this paper could be extended to other commodities or to changes in energy use patterns over longer periods of time, where suitable household expenditure surveys are available. In particular, when household surveys covering the period of high oil prices become available, the analysis of changing household patterns of fuel use will be valuable. The availability of evidence on the use of energy by various household groups will be important for considerations of providing targeted support to low-income households at times of unexpected shocks to energy prices.

Evaluation of Financial Liberalization : A General Equilibrium Model with Constrained Occupation Choice

Gine, Xavier; Townsend, Robert M.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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56.19%
The objective of this paper is to assess both the aggregate growth effects and the distributional consequences of financial liberalization as observed in Thailand from 1976 to 1996. A general equilibrium occupational choice model with two sectors, one without intermediation, and the other with borrowing and lending, is taken to Thai data. Key parameters of the production technology and the distribution of entrepreneurial talent are estimated by maximizing the likelihood of transition into business given initial wealth as observed in two distinct datasets. Other parameters of the model are calibrated to try to match the two decades of growth as well as observed changes in inequality, labor share, savings, and the number of entrepreneurs. Without an expansion in the size of the intermediated sector, Thailand would have evolved very differently, namely, with a drastically lower growth rate, high residual subsistence sector, non-increasing wages, but lower inequality. The financial liberalization brings welfare gains and losses to different subsets of the population. Primary winners are talented would-be entrepreneurs who lack credit and cannot otherwise go into business (or invest little capital). Mean gains for these winners range from 17 to 34 percent of observed overall average household income. But liberalization also induces greater demand by entrepreneurs for workers resulting in increases in the wage and lower profits of relatively rich entrepreneurs of the same order of magnitude as the observed overall average income of firm owners. Foreign capital has no significant impact on growth or the distribution of observed income.

The Wage Labor Market and Inequality in Vietnam in the 1990s

Gallup, John Luke
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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46.43%
Has the expansion of wage employment in Vietnam exacerbated social inequalities, despite its contribution to income growth? Gallup uses the two rounds of the Vietnamese Living Standards Survey (VLSS) to evaluate the contribution of wage employment to inequality and income growth over the period of rapid economic growth in the 1990s following market reforms. If Vietnam sustains its economic development in the future, wage employment will become an ever more important source of household income as family farms and self-employed household enterprises become less prevalent. Observing the recent evolution of wage employment compared with farm and non-farm self-employment provides clues as to how economic development will change Vietnamese society, in particular its impact on income inequality within and between communities. The author shows that standard methods for calculating income inequality can be severely biased due to measurement error when decomposing the contribution of different sectors, regions, or groups to overall inequality. A new method for consistent decomposition of inequality by income source shows that despite the rapid growth of wages in the 1990s...

Main Drivers of Income Inequality in Central European and Baltic Countries : Some Insights from Recent Household Survey Data

Zaidi, Salman
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
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46.44%
Present levels of income inequality in Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia remain considerably higher than their pre-transition levels, although the relative pace of change over time has varied quite a bit across countries. Using data from the 2006 European Union Survey of Income and Living Conditions, this paper finds that prevailing levels of income inequality in these countries continue to be low by international standards, and that this is in large part due to the very high redistributive impact of direct taxes and public transfers. In addition to the instrumental role of tax and transfer policies in redistributing income, the paper highlights the important role played by differences in education levels and labor market participation rates in explaining observed inequalities across people and across different regions (although not in explaining observed differences across countries). The paper includes an analysis of key factors that help explain observed variation across countries in the level of public support for redistribution...

Global Income Distribution and Poverty in the Absence of Agricultural Distortions

Bussolo, Maurizio; De Hoyos, Rafael; Medvedev, Denis
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
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46.43%
This paper assesses the potential impacts of the removal of agriculture trade distortions using a newly developed dataset and methodological approach for evaluating the global poverty and inequality effects of policy reforms. It finds that liberalization of agriculture and food could increase global extreme poverty (US$1 a day) by 0.2 percent and lower moderate poverty (US$2 a day) by 0.3 percent. Beneath these small aggregate changes, most countries witness a substantial reduction in poverty while South Asia-where half of the world's poor reside-experiences an increase in extreme poverty incidence due to high rates of protection afforded to unskilled-intensive agricultural sectors. The distributional changes are likely to be mild, but exhibit a strong regional pattern. Inequality is likely to fall in regions such as Latin America, which are characterized by high initial inequality, and rise in regions like South Asia, characterized by low initial inequality.

Bangladesh, a Middle Income Country by 2021 : What Will it Take in Terms of Poverty Reduction?

Gimenez, Lea; Jolliffe, Dean; Sharif, Iffath
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Poverty Assessment
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.29%
The vision 2021 plan and the associated perspective plan 2010-2021, adopted by the Government of Bangladesh lay out a series of development targets for 2021. Among the core targets identified to monitor the progress toward the vision 2021 objectives is that of attaining a poverty headcount of 14 percent by 2021. The purpose of this paper is to answer the following question: given Bangladesh's performance in poverty reduction over the last decades, can the author expect the proportion of the country's population living in poverty to be 14 percent by 2022? Using data from the last three household income and expenditures survey, we examine changes in poverty rates during 2000-2010, estimate net elasticity of poverty reduction to growth in per-capita expenditure, and then project poverty headcounts into the future. Our poverty projections based on the last three Household Income and Expenditure Surveys (HIES) surveys suggest that Bangladesh will achieve its Millennium Development Goal, or MDG goal of halving its poverty headcount to 28.5 percent by 2015 significantly ahead of schedule. Attaining the vision 2021 poverty target of 14 percent by 2021...

Household Welfare and Poverty Dynamics in Burkina Faso : Empirical Evidence from Household Surveys

Fofack, Hippolyte; Monga, Celestin; Tuluy, Hasan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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46.45%
The authors investigate the dynamics of poverty and income inequality in a cross-section of socio-economic groups and geographical regions over the five-year growth period following the 1994 devaluation of the CFA franc in Burkina Faso. Results show rapidly increasing urban poverty accompanied by rising income inequality, declining poverty -growth elasticities, and significant changes in the poverty map. In rural areas, the incidence of poverty remained the same and income inequality did not increase. In contrast, the distribution of welfare across socio-economic groups was more stable. The rank ordering of socioeconomic groups on the welfare scale did not change during the post-devaluation growth period. Poverty remains largely a rural phenomenon, whose inelastic nature may justify a shift toward growth-oriented policies that at least maintain the rural poor's share of income to reduce poverty in the medium term. Among factors that feed into income inequality: disparities in wages and in educational attainment and unequal access to productive assets (especially human capital).