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Seychelles - Selected Issues : Social Protection, Labor Market and Public Enterprise Reforms - Public Expenditure Review 2

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Português
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Until 2008, Seychelles pursued a state-led economic model of self sufficiency which ultimately proved unsustainable. In 2008, precipitated by rising global commodity prices, Seychelles entered a balance of payments and debt crisis, as international reserves were virtually depleted and external debt service payments were missed. The Government of Seychelles responded quickly by floating the rupee and liberalizing the foreign exchange regime, and agreeing a program with the International Monetary Fund under a 2 year stand-by agreement in November 2008. Although the liberalization of the exchange rate in November 2008 led to initial inflation rates in excess of 60 percent, the relative prices shock was quickly absorbed. Annual inflation fell from a high of positive 63.3 percent in December 2008 to negative 1.0 in August 2010. As the price and foreign exchange controls were lifted, the informal market in foreign currency quickly disappeared. This Public Expenditure Review (PER) also provided the Bank with an analytical basis to inform development policy lending in 2010. The specific objectives of the review are to: (i) provide an update on the macroeconomic stabilization efforts and changes to the fiscal policy for medium term debt sustainability and a more efficient and affordable public sector; (ii) analyze key public enterprise reform issues...

Belarus Public Expenditure Review : Fiscal Reforms for a Sustainable Economic Recovery

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Português
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Belarus faces significant fiscal challenges, stemming from the structural features of its economic model. As of mid-2011, under a severe exchange rate and balance of payments crisis, the Government needs to pursue a carefully sequenced strategy of macroeconomic adjustment coupled with a strong program of structural reforms. This programmatic Public Expenditure Review (PER) fiscal policy options to simultaneously tackle the need for fiscal consolidation as well as the structural challenges with significant fiscal linkages. The options for fiscal reform proposed in this report are estimated to generate average net fiscal savings of 3.9 percent of Gross Domestic product (GDP) annually over the medium term. Given the implied structural changes in the expenditure program, the fiscal impact of these reforms extends beyond the four year projection period.

How Should Fiscal Policy Respond to the Economic Crisis in the Low Income Commonwealth of Independent States? Some pointers from Tajikistan

Brownbridge, Martin; Canagarajah, Sudharshan
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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The paper analyses how the global economic crisis will affect the economies of the low income Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and discusses the fiscal measures which can be taken to help mitigate the adverse impact of the crisis. It focuses on Tajikistan, the poorest member of the CIS but also highlights similarities with the economies of Armenia, the Kyrgyz Republic and Moldova. The main channels through which the global economic crisis will affect the low income CIS economies is through a sharp reduction in remittances from migrant workers in Russia and lower export earnings. The adjustment to this external shock will involve a reduction in imports, private consumption, domestic output and government revenue. Fiscal policy, constrained by very limited macroeconomic and fiscal space, faces acute challenges. Maintaining budget targets for fiscal deficits and domestic borrowing in the face of revenue shortfalls will lead to a tightening of the fiscal stance, exacerbating recessionary pressures and making it very difficult to protect priority social expenditures from cuts. To avoid these outcomes...

Africa and Arab Gulf states : Divergent Development Paths and Prospects for Convergence

Fofack, Hippolyte
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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In spite of the similarities between Sub-Saharan Africa and the Arab Gulf region (Gulf Cooperation Council states), development policies implemented in these two regions of the world have produced markedly different and even divergent outcomes. While Gulf Cooperation Council states have drawn on hydrocarbon revenues to dramatically transform their economic landscape, Sub-Saharan African countries have exhibited abysmal economic and social outcomes. The remarkable increase in personal income and large current account surpluses in Arab Gulf states is in sharp contrast with widespread poverty and recurrent balance of payments crises in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper reviews the possible causes of these divergent development paths and discusses the prospects for economic convergence in the new globalization landscape of growing trade ties between the two regions. In particular, it shows that development models underpinned by institutional continuity and intergenerational accountability could enhance long-run growth in Sub-Saharan Africa and income convergence between the two regions.

Political Economy of Antidumping and Safeguards in Argentina

Nogués, Julio J.; Baracat, Elías
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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Beginning in the late 1980s, Argentina implemented a series of reforms that were revolutionary in speed and scope, including trade liberalization. After the implementation of these policies, a record number of antidumping petitions came forward. Under a situation of high inflation, the government reinforced its fiscal and monetary policies by announcing that it would minimize the use of such measures. The flexible disciplines of the existing domestic antidumping regulations facilitated this objective. Later, when the GATT/WTO-sanctioned trade remedies were implemented, the government made a serious attempt to establish discipline by including liberal regulations and creating special institutional arrangements. A presumption built into the construction of the new mechanisms was that adhering to WTO requirements would strengthen the resistance against protection. This presumption turned out to be false. Changing circumstances, including severe peso overvaluation, had significant effects on the number and outcome of antidumping investigations. Regarding safeguards, the government followed the letter and the spirit of the WTO agreement. In relation to the number of petitions, few measures have been implemented. Rejections were based on a concern for consumer costs and on failure of the industry seeking protection to provide a convincing modernization plan. This...

MENA : Recovering from the Crisis

Ianchovichina, Elena
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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75.94%
The Middle East and North Africa region is recovering from the financial crisis along with the global economy. Growth in 2010 is expected to be 4.4 percent region-wide, driven by domestic absorption as well as a positive contribution from external demand. The recovery from the crisis differs by country depending on initial conditions and the intensity of the impact via the three principal channels through which the global financial crisis affected Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economies - the financial sector, the price of oil, and the balance of payments, reflecting the impact on trade, remittances and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows.

The Crisis in the Euro Zone : Did the Euro Contribute to the Evolution of the Crisis?

Lin, Justin Yifu; Treichel, Volker
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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86.06%
The simmering sovereign debt crisis in the Euro Zone represents a looming threat to the recovery of the world economy and could lead to a renewed global financial crisis. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the root causes of the crisis in Europe and assess the extent to which it was driven by the global financial crisis and by factors internal to Europe, notably the adoption of the common currency. Adoption of the euro led to convergence of interest rates in periphery countries to the levels in core countries and, in combination with rising capital inflows owing to greater financial integration, set off a consumption and real estate boom in periphery countries, leading to higher growth and increases in government revenue and spending. The resulting real appreciation led to a loss of competitiveness in periphery countries, adversely affecting export performance and causing rising current account imbalances. While the fiscal position remained manageable before the crisis owing to rising revenue, the recession brought about by the global financial crisis led to the burst of real estate bubbles and a financial sector crisis and to sharply increased budget deficits and worsened debt indicators and triggered the sovereign debt crisis. Core countries...

Rethinking vulnerability to currency crises: comments on Athukorala and Warr

McLeod, Ross
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 157038 bytes; 360 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
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This paper re-examines Athukorala and Warr’s ex post investigation of several Asian countries’ vulnerability to balance of payments crises. It argues that their focus on ‘mobile capital’ is flawed in two important aspects. It also questions their ideas about exchange rate ‘overvaluation’, and argues that their case that this is a meaningful indicator of vulnerability is unconvincing. The finding that rapid finance sector growth seems to have been a precursor to crisis is followed up with a discussion of the policy implications, which was largely absent from the original article. The paper goes on to question the logic of the authors’ finding that the crises were not caused by irrational private sector behaviour. Finally, it suggests that government policy often implicitly assumes the prevalence of such behaviour, and that vulnerability to crises results from policy that prevents continuous adjustment of the real exchange rate to changing circumstances.; no

Stabilization and Fiscal Empowerment : The Twin Challenges Facing India's States, Volume 1. Executive Summary and Main Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Infrastructure Study; Economic & Sector Work
Português
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66.07%
India, home to more than one billion people, has experienced rapid growth over the past decade, averaging about six percent per year between 1992/93 and 2003/04. The agenda backed in this report is one that receives widespread support from both the central and state governments in India. The fiscal stress of the late nineties gave rise to an intense state-level reform effort. Six years on, this report documents the many initiatives undertaken by the states to restore fiscal sustainability, and become more effective agents of development. It outlines successes, lessons learnt, and highlights further challenges, on both the expenditure side (chapter two) and the revenue side (chapter three). It also looks at the incentive framework within which the states operate (chapter four), and asks whether there is a feasible reform package that will take the states not only out of fiscal crisis, but strengthened to meet the development challenges which confront them. This chapter provides the context for what follows by outlining the role and increasingly divergent performance of the state governments (section two)...

India : Why Fiscal Adjustment Now

Pinto, Brian; Zahir, Farah
Fonte: World Bank: Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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76.02%
India's growth performance has been impressive over the last two decades. But its sustainability has been in question, first with the 1991 fiscal-balance of payments crisis (BoP), and then again after 1997/98, when fiscal deficits returned to the 10 percent of GDP range and government debt grew. This paper analyzes the deterioration in India's public finances and presents evidence suggesting that, in the absence of a fiscal adjustment, low inflation and high reserves may have been pursued at the expense of long-run growth and poverty reduction. Resolving this inflation-external vulnerability-growth policy trilemma requires fiscal adjustment. In making its case, the paper shows, first, that fiscal fundamentals have weakened after 1997/98 even when compared with the pre-1991 crisis period. This has continued in spite of the recent record lows in interest rates. Second, the fiscal stance is not conducive to long-run growth and poverty reduction because capital spending has been cut to accommodate higher interest payments and other current spending...

India : Sustaining Reform, Reducing Poverty

World Bank
Fonte: New Delhi: Oxford University Press Publicador: New Delhi: Oxford University Press
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
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75.91%
The report analyzes India ' s continued good progress in increasing incomes, and improving living standards over the past decade, which after the setback associated with the 1991 balance of payments crisis, economic growth picked up, income poverty continued to decline, and many social indicators, in particular literacy, continued to improve. Likewise, there has been an opening to private activity, trade policy and the exchange rate regime have been further liberalized, and capital markets have been reformed, leading to an improved investment climate. Nonetheless, development progress has been steady, but uneven, while in addition, the recent growth deceleration was accompanied by a slowdown in investment, especially in the private sector. The fiscal position of the general government has now also deteriorated, with a rising budget deficit, the result of a significant increase in government consumption, and continued low revenue mobilization. But at the same time, prudent monetary policy has helped contain inflation...

The Challenges of High Food and Fuel Prices

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Public Sector Study; Economic & Sector Work
Português
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75.77%
The increase in the price of oil and food carry major adverse poverty and macroeconomic implications especially for fragile and small states and for low income households in all developing countries. In terms of their impact on income distribution, inflation, and poverty food prices are of greater and more immediate concern than high fuel prices. However, the impact of the oil price increase on economic growth is likely to be negative and the challenge of crafting appropriate policy responses to the food crisis is made much harder in a context of rising oil prices and ensuing fiscal and balance of payments pressures. This paper describes what has happened to fuel and oil prices over the past two years and links these developments to the macro-economic international context. It goes on to describe the consequences of the oil and food price increase for developing countries and especially for fragile and small states in the commonwealth. The paper also discusses policy instruments that may contribute to ameliorate the impact of the changes. Finally...

India : Sustaining Reform, Reducing Poverty

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Development Policy Review (DPR); Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.91%
The report analyzes India's continued good progress in increasing incomes, and improving living standards over the past decade, which after the setback associated with the 1991 balance of payments crisis, economic growth picked up, income poverty continued to decline, and many social indicators, in particular literacy, continued to improve. Likewise, there has been an opening to private activity, trade policy and the exchange rate regime have been further liberalized, and capital markets have been reformed, leading to an improved investment climate. Nonetheless, development progress has been steady, but uneven, while in addition, the recent growth deceleration was accompanied by a slowdown in investment, especially in the private sector. The fiscal position of the general government has now also deteriorated, with a rising budget deficit, the result of a significant increase in government consumption, and continued low revenue mobilization. But at the same time, prudent monetary policy has helped contain inflation...

The Unexpected Global Financial Crisis : Researching Its Root Cause

Lin, Justin Yifu; Treichel, Volker
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
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66.13%
The world is currently still struggling with the aftermath of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Following a description of the eruption, evolution and consequences of the global crisis, this paper reviews alternative hypotheses for the causes of the global financial crisis as well as their empirical evidence. The paper refutes the frequently voiced view that the global crisis was caused by global imbalances that reflected economic policies of East Asian countries. Instead, it argues that global imbalances were the result of excess demand in the United States, resulting from both the public debt in the United States arising from the Afghanistan and Iraqi wars and tax cuts and the overconsumption by households supported by the wealth effect from the housing bubble in the United States. The housing bubble itself was the outcome of the Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy in the aftermath of the burst of the "dot-com" bubble in 2001, the lack of appropriate financial regulation, and housing policies aimed at expanding the mortgage market to low-income borrowers. It was possible to maintain the large trade deficits of the United States for such a long period of time because of the dollar's reserve currency status. When the housing bubble in the United States burst...

Private Infrastructure in East Asia : Lessons Learned in the Aftermath of the Crisis

Baietti, Aldo
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
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75.87%
Private participation in infrastructure has taken two distinct forms in the developing world. The first model, applied primarily in Latin America, focuses on privatization of existing infrastructure assets. The second, applied largely in East Asia, focuses on retaining existing assets in the public sector but seeking private sector involvement to augment capacity through new greenfield investments. The financial crisis that emerged in East Asia in mid-1997 threatened to undermine much of the progress the region had made in applying this second model to mobilize private investment and financing for infrastructure. This report describes the background of the 1997 financial crisis in East Asia and its impact on private investment in the region's infrastructure. It then analyzes lessons learned in the aftermath of the crisis in six countries--Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam--and explores how these countries can respond to the new challenges.

A Growth and Adjustment Strategy for Pakistan

Burki, Shahid Javed; Hasan, Parvez
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper
Português
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86.04%
This paper is divided into four sections. The first provides a quick overview of the current political and economic situation, focusing in particular on the stagnation of growth and deepening macroeconomic imbalances, and a fast approaching balance of payments crisis. The second section focuses on ways to improve macro-economic balances especially public finances not only by increasing revenues but restructuring expenditures including reductions in subsidies to the non-poor and increasing the effectiveness of public spending. The third section focuses on critical elements in reviving growth. The paper argues for a comprehensive growth strategy which focuses on governance as a central issue. Reversing the decline of public institutions and improving the quality of governance will provide confidence in the country's economic future and will result in increasing domestic investment. Other elements of the strategy must involve improving the energy situation; correcting the long neglect of exports and using international trade as a driver of growth (including opportunities that may become available by the intended normalization of trade with India); reversing the decline on growth rate of agriculture both by supporting diversification in the cropping pattern; processing of agricultural products...

Pakistan : Path to Rapid Growth and Job Creation

Lopez-Calix, José
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper
Português
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86.03%
Pakistan's rebound from the global financial crisis has been slow and fragile, and unless it changes course swiftly, it could face the prospects of a second balance of payments crisis in less than five years. Its recovery from the 2008-09 global financial crisis has been the weakest in South Asia, featuring a unique double-dip growth pattern. With high fertility, Pakistan will double the size of its already young population by 2025. The only way to convert this massive demographic bulge from a political and social burden to an exceptional dividend is through rapid and inclusive growth that creates millions of new and better jobs. In sum, the two main challenges are improving the types of jobs available and enabling people to move into those more productive activities. The binding constraints to Pakistan's growth are both emerging and structural. Emerging constraints include massive cuts in electricity access and macroeconomic instability, leading to high country risk and a sudden stop in external and domestic financing. Structural constraints include low access to domestic finance and government and market failures (micro risks) that impede investment...

Insurance and Liquidity : Panel Evidence

Shankar, Rashmi
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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76.06%
The author presents evidence that balance sheet effects are critical determinants of both the likelihood of a crisis and of income losses following a crisis. She tests the validity of "insurance" and "liquidity" models of currency crisis. Both models predict that the occurrence of a balance of payments crisis is conditional on the health of the nation's accounts in relation to the rest of the world. Problems in the balance sheet either cause a financial crisis that develops into a run on the central bank, or generate a run on the central bank once contingent liabilities exceed reserves and the yield differential moves against domestic assets. Estimations of crisis likelihoods based on several specifications of single and simultaneous equation probit models confirm that output losses following the crisis are persistent and conditional on the balance sheet indicator, that is, the ratio of the stock of gross external liabilities to assets. Measures of contingent liabilities, capital flight, and financial depth perform well as crisis predictors, and the marginal effects on the probability of a crisis are of the expected sign. The panel data set covers the time period 1973 through 2003 for 90 countries.

Development Finance via Diaspora Bonds: Track Record and Potential

Ketkar, Suhas L.; Ratha, Dilip
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.97%
A diaspora bond is a debt instrument issued by a country - or potentially, a sub-sovereign entity or a private corporation - to raise financing from its overseas diaspora. Israel and India have raised $35-40 billion using these bonds. Drawing on their experiences, this paper discusses the rationale, methodology, and factors affecting the issuance of diaspora bonds for raising external development finance. The Government of Israel has offered a flexible menu of diaspora bonds since 1951 to keep the Jewish diaspora engaged. The Indian authorities, in contrast, have used this instrument for balance of payments support, to raise financing during times when they had difficulty in accessing international capital markets. Diaspora bonds are often sold at a premium to the diaspora members, thus fetching a "patriotic" discount in borrowing costs. Besides patriotism or the desire to do good in the investor's country of origin, such a discount can also be explained by the fact that diaspora investors may be more willing and able to take on sovereign risks of default in hard currency as well as devaluation as they may have local currency liabilities and they may be able to influence the borrower's decision to service such debt. The paper discusses several conditions for successful diaspora bond issuance having a sizeable diaspora...

Post-crisis monetary and exchange rate policies in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand

Fane, George
Fonte: Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group Publicador: Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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75.85%
This paper surveys the post-crisis monetary and exchange rate policies of Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. Malaysia has pegged the ringgit while Indonesia and Thailand have adopted heavily managed exchange rates. Under their IMF programs, Thailand and Indonesia set base money targets, but Thailand has moved, and Indonesia is now moving, to inflation targeting, using interest rates as the short-term instrument. Malaysia also sets interest rates. The ability of the three central banks to set interest rates and also pursue an exchange rate target with an interest rate target has been bolstered by restrictions on the internationalisation of the domestic currency. The three central banks have also had to sterilise the monetary effects of their foreign exchange interventions. It is argued that inflation targeting is now a good policy choice, but that a more freely floating exchange rate would be better than sterilisation. of balance of payments surpluses or deficits.