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Lessons from World Bank Research on Financial Crises

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Português
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56.73%
The benefits of financial development and globalization have come with continuing fragility in financial sectors. Periodic crises have had real but heterogeneous welfare impacts and not just for poor people; indeed, some of the conditions that foster deep and persistent poverty, such as lack of connectivity to markets, have provided a degree of protection for the poor. Past crises have also had longer-term impacts for some of those affected, most notably through the nutrition and schooling of children in poor families. As in other areas of policy, effective responses to a crisis require sound data and must take account of incentives and behavior. An important lesson from past experience is that the short-term responses to a crisis-macroeconomic stabilization, trade policies, financial sector policies and social protection-cannot ignore longer-term implications for both economic development and vulnerability to future crises.

Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress : A Survey

Demirgüç-Kunt, Aslı; Detragiache, Enrica
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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46.79%
A rapidly growing empirical literature is studying the causes and consequences of bank fragility in contemporary economies. The authors reviews the two basic methodologies adopted in cross-country empirical studies-the signals approach and the multivariate probability model-and their application to study the determinants of banking crises. The use of these models to provide early warnings for crises is also reviewed, as are studies of the economic effects of banking crises and of the policies to forestall them. The paper concludes by identifying directions for future research.

Managing the Real and Fiscal Effects of Banking Crises

Klingbiel, Daniela; Laeven, Luc
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Português
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56.68%
The study provides two recent analyses, spurred by the recent East Asian crisis, of government responses to financial distress, and, also presents a comprehensive database on systemic, and borderline banking crises. In the first chapter, the authors review the tradeoffs involved in public policies for systemic, financial, and corporate sector restructuring. They find that consistent policies are crucial for success, though such consistency is often missing. This consistency covers many dimensions, and entails among other things, ensuring that there are sufficient resources for absorbing losses, and, that private agents face appropriate incentives for restructuring. The authors also find that sustainable restructuring, requires deep structural reforms, facing upfront, political economy factors. In the second chapter, the authors use cross-country evidence to determine whether specific crisis containment, and resolution policies, systematically influence the fiscal costs of resolving a crisis. They find that accommodating policies - such as blanket deposit guarantees...

Foreign Bank Behavior During Financial Crises

Adams-Kane, Jonathon; Caballero, Julian A.; Lim, Jamus Jerome
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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46.78%
One of the persistent policy problems faced by governments contemplating financial liberalizations is the question of whether to allow foreign banks entry into the domestic economy. This question has become ever more urgent in recent times, due to rapid financial globalization, coupled with the credit contractions experienced as a result of the 2007/08 financial crisis. This paper examines the question of whether opening the financial sector to foreign participation is a good idea for developing countries, using a unique bank-level database of foreign ownership. In particular, the authors examine whether the credit supply of majority foreign-owned financial institutions differ systematically conditional on a crisis event in their home economies. They show that foreign banks that were exposed to crises in their home countries exhibit changes in lending patterns that are lower by between 13 and 42 percent than their non-crisis counterparts.

The Transmission of Banking Crises to Households : Lessons from the 2008-2011 Crises in the ECA Region

Brown, Martin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
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46.79%
This paper examines the impact of the recent banking crises in Europe and Central Asia with an emphasis on household income and consumption patterns. The analysis is based on the 2010 wave of the Life in Transition Survey, which covers 12,704 households in eleven countries that experienced a banking crisis between 2008 and 2011. It finds that households in middle-income crisis countries are more than twice as likely to be hit by an income shock as households in high-income crisis countries. The labor market channel is the predominant source of income shocks, with wage reductions more widespread than job-losses. In reaction to income shocks, households reallocate spending from non-essential goods to staple foods. Reductions in staple-food consumption are, however, prevalent among low-income households. The paper examines potential crisis mitigators and finds that at the macro level a flexible monetary regime is associated with fewer cutbacks in household consumption. At the meso level, it finds no evidence that foreign bank ownership amplified the transmission of banking crises to households in Europe. With respect to micro-level mitigators, the analysis finds that diversified income sources as well as stocks of non-financial and financial assets help households to cushion income shocks. Access to informal and formal credit also mitigates the impact of income shocks on household consumption...

Distributional Effects of Crises : The Role of Financial Transfers

Halac, Marina; Schmukler, Sergio L.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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46.74%
Financial crises affect income distribution by way of different channels. The authors argue that financial transfers are an important channel which has been overlooked by the literature. They study the role of financial transfers by analyzing some of the most severe Latin American crises during the past decades (Chile 1981-83, Mexico 1994-95, Ecuador 1998-2000, Argentina 2001-02, and Uruguay 2002). First, the authors investigate transfers to the financial sector-those from nonparticipants to participants of the financial sector. Second, they explore who receives these financial transfers by identifying the winners and losers within the financial sector. Their analysis suggests that financial transfers during crises are large and expected to increase income inequality.

Bank Concentration and Crises

Beck, Thorsten; Demirguc-Kunt, Asli; Levine, Ross
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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46.76%
The authors study the impact of bank concentration, regulations, and national institutions on the likelihood of suffering a systemic banking crisis. Using data on 79 countries over the period 1980-97, they find that crises are less likely (1) in more concentrated banking systems, (2) in countries with fewer regulatory restrictions on bank competition and activities, and (3) in economies with better institutions, that is, institutions that encourage competition and support private property rights.

Financial Policies and the Prevention of Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Mishkin, Frederic S.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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46.67%
The author defines a financial crisis as a disruption in financial markets in which adverse selection and moral hazard problems become much worse, so that financial markets are unable to efficiently channel funds to those who have the most productive investment opportunities. As financial markets become unable to function efficiently, economic activity sharply contracts. Factors that promote financial crises include, mainly, a deterioration in financial sector balance sheets, increases in interest rates and in uncertainty, and deterioration in nonfinancial balance sheets because of changes in asset prices. Financial policies in 12 areas could help make financial crises less likely in emerging market economies, says the author. He discusses: Prudential supervision. Accounting and disclosure requirements. Legal and judicial systems. Market-based discipline. Entry of foreign banks. Capital controls. Reduction of the role of state-owned financial institutions. Restrictions on foreign-dominated debt. The elimination of too-big-to-fail practices in the corporate sector. The proper sequencing of financial liberalization. Monetary policy and price stability. Exchange rate regimes and foreign exchange reserves. If the political will to adopt sound policies in these areas grows in emerging market economies...

Learning from Financial Crises

Lim, Jamus Jerome; Minne, Geoffrey
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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46.77%
This paper considers the question of whether international banks learn from their previous crisis experiences and reduce their lending to developing countries in the event of a financial crisis. The analysis combines a bank-level dataset of bank activity and ownership with country-level data on the stock of historical crisis events between 1800 and 2005. To circumvent selection and endogeneity concerns, the paper exploits temporal variations in the relative recency of crises as instruments for crisis experience. The results indicate that foreign banks with greater crisis experience reduced their lending significantly more relative to other foreign banks, which can be interpreted as evidence in favor of a learning effect. The findings survive robustness checks that include alternative measures of crisis experience, additional controls, and decompositions into different types of crises. The question of learning is also examined from the perspective of other measures of bank performance.

Controlling the Fiscal Costs of Banking Crises

Honohan, Patrick; Klingebiel, Daniela
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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46.7%
In recent decades, a majority of countries have experienced a systemic banking crisis requiring a major-and expensive-overhaul of their banking system. Not only do banking crises hit the budget with outlays that must be absorbed by higher taxes (or spending cuts), but they are costly in terms of forgone economic output. Many different policy recommendations have been made for limiting the cost of crises, but there has been little systematic effort to see which recommendations work in practice. The authors try to quantify the extent to which fiscal outlays incurred in resolving banking distress can be attributed to crisis management measures of a particular kind adopted by the government in the early years of the crisis. They find evidence that certain crisis management strategies appear to add greatly to fiscal costs: unlimited deposit guarantees, open-ended liquidity support, repeated recapitalization, debtor bail-outs, and regulatory forbearance. Their findings clearly tilt the balance in favor of a strict rather than an accommodating approach to crisis resolution. At the very least...

World Bank Support for Social Safety Nets 2007-2013 : A Review of Financing, Knowledge Services, and Results

Andrews, Colin; Kryeziu, Adea; Seo, Dahye
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Português
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46.68%
This review examines World Bank support to social safety nets between FY2007-13, including both financing and knowledge services. During this time period World Bank financing for safety nets totaled just over United States (U.S.) 12 billion dollars, 273 financing activities in 93 countries, the World Bank spent approximately U.S. 118 million dollars on 281 safety net studies and supported approximately 129 credible safety net impact evaluations covering in 24 countries. Among the 93 countries represented in the portfolio, 42 received little or no safety net support from the World Bank prior to FY2007. The growth in Bank support is especially notable during the period of the food, fuel, and financial crises. The analysis delves into these trends by region, type of intervention, and instruments involved. Finally, it delineates implications and outlook for the future based on lessons learned, results measured, and evaluative evidence.

Maximizing the World Bank Group’s Impact in the Middle East and North Africa

World Bank Group
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Português
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56.28%
This report provides an overview of the World Bank Group’s engagement in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, highlighting the new operating model of the World Bank Group. In particular, the report provides insight on the key challenges and strategic engagement of each sector (Global Practice) in MENA and details some of the key cross-cutting challenges that countries face. This report serves as a basis to convene international thought leaders, as well as internal and external stakeholders, in the context of developing a new strategy for the Middle East and North Africa region later this year. The region faces three challenges in particular: (a) long-standing distortions that have generated jobless growth and poor service delivery as well as low financial access and inclusion; (b) severe imbalances that threaten macroeconomic stability; and (c) deep political and social tensions, at times escalating into violent conflict. The World Bank Group’s current engagement supports four key pillars: (a) strengthening governance; (b) ensuring economic and social inclusion; (c) creating jobs; and (d) accelerating sustainable growth. Progress on these pillars can be made through a two-pronged approach focused on addressing the immediate needs arising from humanitarian crises throughout the region while also giving sustained attention to the investments and reforms needed for medium- and long-term development. This two-pronged approach is necessary to help governments cope with immediate pressures on already fragile institutions and at the same time develop long-term strategies to address deep-seated issues that have hindered inclusive growth and prosperity for decades. This report details nine specific cross-cutting challenges: climate change; decentralization; disaster risk management; fragility...

Placing Bank Supervision in the Central Bank

Melecky, Martin; Podpiera, Anca Maria
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Português
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46.75%
Although keeping bank supervision independent from macroprudential supervision may ensure more checks and balances, placing bank supervision in the central bank could exploit synergies with macroprudential supervision. This paper studies whether placing microprudential supervision of banks, typically the systemic part of the financial system, under the same roof as financial stability policy, typically entrusted to the central bank, can improve financial stability. Specifically, the paper analyzes whether having bank supervision in the central bank mitigated the likelihood of banking crises during 2007–12. The analysis conditions on crisis indicators commonly found in the early-warning models of banking crises, the quality of microprudential supervision, and the quality of macroprudential supervision. The authors find that countries with deeper financial markets and those undergoing rapid financial deepening can better foster financial stability when they put bank supervision in the central bank.

Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings

Reinhart, Carmen M.
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Journal Article; Publications & Research :: Journal Article; Publications & Research
Português
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46.72%
Sovereign credit ratings play an important part in determining countries' access to international capital markets and the terms of that access. In principle, there is no reason to expect that sovereign credit ratings should systematically predict currency crises. In practice, in emerging market economies there is a strong link between currency crises and default. Hence if credit ratings are forward-looking and currency crises in emerging market economies are linked to defaults, it follows that downgrades in credit ratings should systematically precede currency crises. This article presents results suggesting that sovereign credit ratings systematically fail to predict currency crises but do considerably better in predicting defaults. Downgrades in credit ratings usually follow currency crises, possibly suggesting that currency instability increases the risk of default.

A Practical Guide to Managing Systemic Financial Crises : A Review of Approaches Taken in Indonesia, The Republic of Korea, and Thailand

Scott, David
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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46.76%
The author examines experiences in Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand in confronting systemic financial crises during the 1990s. He draws on the knowledge and experience of World Bank staff who managed the Bank's financial and technical assistance to those countries. In reviewing the principal actions taken by the governments to resolve the crises, the author describes key challenges that governments face in tackling crises, defines basic guidelines and principles for responding to those challenges, and proposes steps to improve the ability of governments to deal with crises when they do occur, as well as to mitigate the risk of crises in the first place. The author addresses matters such as the provision of liquidity, institutional arrangements for crisis resolution, use of public funds, diagnosis of problems, resolution, recapitalization, restructuring of banks, privatization of banks, restructuring of troubled debt, and use of asset management companies. He goes on to develop the conceptual underpinnings for two fundamental improvements in crisis management practices...

World Bank Engagement at the State Level : The Cases of Brazil, India, Nigeria and Russia

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.27%
Beginning in the late 1990s, the World Bank significantly expanded its engagement at the state level in Brazil, India, Nigeria, and Russia. This pilot cross-country study reviews the selected cases of World Bank's lending and analytic work at the state level in those four large federated countries. In each case, state governments were the Bank's principal development partners. The study looks at the evolution of the four country strategies and the Bank's mode of engagement at the state level, in order to draw lessons from that experience both for the Bank and for its federal and state partners. State-level engagement posed several strategic and operational questions, among them which states to engage, the scope of engagement, and the modalities of engagement. The Bank set out its approach to selecting states in country strategy documents. The findings are worth highlighting. First, the study confirms the desirability of continued selective Bank lending in a few states. However, the poverty impact of those interventions could be enhanced by balancing states' propensity to reform and the concentration of poverty within them...

Deposit Insurance as Private Club : Is Germany a Model?

Beck, Thorsten
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.65%
The author describes, and evaluates the deposit insurance scheme set-up by private commercial banks in Germany in 1975. The scheme's funding, and management are completely private, with no pubic supervision. Where other schemes rely on monitoring by depositors to decrease moral hazard problems, the German scheme relies on peer monitoring by its member banks. The system has weathered several small bank crises, but has not yet been exposed to a major bank failure, or a systemic crisis. To what extent can it serve as a model for other countries? The success of the German scheme has to be judged against an institutional environment that fosters contract enforcement, and the rule of law, and discourages corruption. In a country with weaker institutions, the voluntary membership might quickly lead to adverse selection, with strong banks leaving the scheme. The high coverage limit might induce bank managers, and owners to abuse the scheme. Banks might intentionally under-fund the scheme, counting on additional government resources in times of crisis. And the secrecy of funds might decrease fund managers' accountability in societies with little transparency...

Banking Crises in Transition Economies : Fiscal Costs and Related Issues

Tang, Helena; Zoli, Edda; Klytchnikova, Irina
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.74%
The authors look at strategies for dealing with banking crises in 12 transition economies -- five from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE): Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Macedonia, and Poland; the three Baltic states: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania; and four countries from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS): Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Ukraine. Three types of strategies were used to deal with the crises. The CEE countries generally pursued extensive restructuring and recapitalizing of banks; most CIS countries pursued large-scale liquidation; and the Baltic states generally pursued a combination of liquidation and restructuring. The strategy pursued reflected macroeconomic conditions and the level of development in a country's banking sector. There were more new banks in the former Soviet Union (FSU-the CIS and Baltic states), but they tended to be small, undercapitalized, and not deeply engaged in financial intermediation. The CEE countries generally incurred higher fiscal costs than the FSU countries but ended up with sounder...

Bank Bailouts, Competition, and the Disparate Effects for Borrower and Depositor Welfare

Calderon, Cesar; Schaeck, Klaus
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.73%
This paper investigates how government interventions into banking systems such as blanket guarantees, liquidity support, recapitalizations, and nationalizations affect banking competition. This debate is important because the pricing of banking products has implications for borrower and depositor welfare. Exploiting data for 124 countries that witnessed different policy responses to 41 banking crises, and using difference-in-difference estimations, the paper presents the following key results: (i) Government interventions reduce Lerner indices and net interest margins. This effect is robust to a battery of falsification and placebo tests, and the competitive response also cannot be explained by alternative forces. The competition-increasing effect on Lerner indices and net interest margins is also confirmed once the non-random assignment of interventions is accounted for using instrumental variable techniques that exploit exogenous variation in the electoral cycle and in the design of the regulatory architecture across countries. (ii) Consistent with theoretical predictions...

A Guide to the World Bank : Third Edition

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
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56.31%
This guide introduces the reader to the conceptual work of the World Bank Group. Its goal is to serve as a starting point for more in-depth inquiries into subjects of particular interest. It provides a glimpse into the wide array of activities in which the Bank Group institutions are involved, and it directs the reader toward other resources and websites that have more detailed information. This new, updated third edition of a guide to the World Bank provides readers with an accessible and straightforward overview of the Bank Group's history, organization, mission, and work. It highlights the numerous activities and an organizational challenge faced by the institution, and explains how the Bank Group is reforming itself to meet the needs of a multipolar world. The book then chronicles the Bank Group's work in such areas as climate change, financial and food crises, conflict prevention and fragile states, combating corruption, and education. For those wishing to delve further into areas of particular interest...