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Bank Deleveraging : Causes, Channels, and Consequences for Emerging Market and Developing Countries

Feyen, Erik; Kibuuka, Katie; Ötker-Robe, İnci
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.77%
Just before the 2008-09 global financial crisis, policymakers were concerned about the rapid growth of bank credit, particularly in Europe; now worry centers on a potential global credit crunch led by European banking institutions. Overall, credit conditions across Europe deteriorated markedly in late 2011. Spillover effects are being felt around the globe and imply significant channels through which deleveraging could have disruptive consequences for credit conditions in emerging markets, particularly in emerging Europe. Significant liquidity support provided by the European Central Bank was a "game changer," at least in the short term, as it helped revive markets and limited the risk of disorderly deleveraging. However, the extent, speed, and impact of European bank deleveraging remain highly dependent on the evolution of economic growth and market conditions, which in turn are guided by the ultimate impact of European Central Bank liquidity support, resolution of the sovereign debt crisis within the Euro Area, and the ability of the European rescue fund to provide an effective firewall against contagion.

Nigeria : Strengthening Monetary and Liquidity Management

International Monetary Fund; World Bank
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.9%
The 2002 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) identified considerable problems in containing the upsurge in liquidity in the financial system, partly caused by spending of oil receipts. In the face of persistent excess liquidity in the financial system, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) made numerous adjustments in the monetary policy framework and instruments; however, these had a limited impact on monetary aggregates. A structural excess liquidity is a common feature in oil exporting countries like Nigeria because of sustained large foreign currency inflows. This note reviews the current frameworks for monetary policy and liquidity management and discusses role of selective financial markets in improving liquidity management in Nigeria. It also provides some recommendations to further strengthen the implementation of monetary policy, particularly systemic liquidity management. This note is structured as follows: chapter one gives context and background; chapter two gives monetary policy framework; chapter three presents liquidity forecasting and management; chapter four gives functioning of financial markets and liquidity management; and chapter five gives recommendations.

Financial Inclusion for Financial Stability : Access to Bank Deposits and the Growth of Deposits in the Global Financial Crisis

Han, Rui; Melecky, Martin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.78%
In crisis times, depositors get anxious, can run on banks, and withdraw their deposits. Correlated withdrawals of bank deposits could be mitigated if bank deposits are more diversified, that is, held by more individuals. This paper examines the link between the broader access to bank deposits prior to the 2008 crisis and the dynamics of bank deposit growth during the crisis, while controlling for relevant covariates. Employing proxies for access to deposits and the use of bank deposits, the authors find that greater access to bank deposits can make the deposit funding base of banks more resilient in times of financial stress. Policy efforts to enhance financial stability should thus not only focus on macroprudential regulation, but also recognize the positive effect of broader access to bank deposits on financial stability.

Foreign Bank Behavior During Financial Crises

Adams-Kane, Jonathon; Caballero, Julian A.; Lim, Jamus Jerome
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.83%
One of the persistent policy problems faced by governments contemplating financial liberalizations is the question of whether to allow foreign banks entry into the domestic economy. This question has become ever more urgent in recent times, due to rapid financial globalization, coupled with the credit contractions experienced as a result of the 2007/08 financial crisis. This paper examines the question of whether opening the financial sector to foreign participation is a good idea for developing countries, using a unique bank-level database of foreign ownership. In particular, the authors examine whether the credit supply of majority foreign-owned financial institutions differ systematically conditional on a crisis event in their home economies. They show that foreign banks that were exposed to crises in their home countries exhibit changes in lending patterns that are lower by between 13 and 42 percent than their non-crisis counterparts.

Bank Capital and Systemic Stability

Anginer, Deniz; Demirguc-Kunt, Asli
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.7%
This paper distinguishes among various types of capital and examines their effect on system-wide fragility. The analysis finds that higher quality forms of capital reduce the systemic risk contribution of banks, whereas lower quality forms can have a destabilizing impact, particularly during crisis periods. The impact of capital on systemic risk is less pronounced for smaller banks, for banks located in countries with more generous safety nets, and in countries with institutions that allow for better public and private monitoring of financial institutions. The results show that regulatory capital is effective in reducing systemic risk and that regulatory risk weights are correlated with higher future asset volatility, but this relationship is significantly weaker for larger banks. The paper also finds that increased regulatory risk-weights not correlated with future asset volatility increase systemic fragility. Overall, the results are consistent with the theoretical literature that emphasizes capital as a potential buffer in absorbing liquidity...

Predicting Bank Insolvency in the Middle East and North Africa

Calice, Pietro
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.83%
This paper uses a panel of annual observations for 198 banks in 19 Middle East and North Africa countries over 2001-12 to develop an early warning system for forecasting bank insolvency based on a multivariate logistic regression framework. The results show that the traditional CAMEL indicators are significant predictors of bank insolvency in the region. The predictive power of the model, both in-sample and out-of-sample, is reasonably good, as measured by the receiver operating characteristic curve. The findings of the paper suggest that banking supervision in the Middle East and North Africa could be strengthened by introducing a fundamentals-based, off-site monitoring system to assess the soundness of financial institutions.

Resolving Bank Failures in Argentina

de la Torre, Augusto
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.6%
Policies and procedures to resolve bank failures have evolved significantly in Argentina since the introduction of currency convertibility in 1991, and particularly in reaction to the 1995 tequila crisis, which exposed the inadequacy of the bank exit framework in place then. The author reviews the institutional changes introduced in Argentina in 1995 to handle bank failures more effectively, particularly the creation of the deposit guarantee scheme and the procedural framework for resolving bank failures, embedded in Article 35 of the Financial Institutions Law. This framework enables the Central Bank to carve out the assets and privileged liabilities of the failing bank and transfer them to sound banks, thereby sending only a residual balance sheet to judicial liquidation. Subsequent refinements in the application of Article 35 procedures eventually led to current Argentine practice. The author examines this practice in detail by considering the handling of the recent failure of Banco Almafuerte. The author assesses a number of issues that arise from the Argentine model of bank failure resolution...

Moldova Financial Sector Assessment Program; Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision

International Monetary Fund; World Bank
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Report; Economic & Sector Work :: Financial Sector Assessment Program; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.56%
This assessment of Moldova current state of compliance with the Basel core principles for effective banking supervision (BCPs) was undertaken as part of a joint International Monetary Fund (IMF) - World Bank mission in connection with a broader financial sector assessment program exercise. This version of the assessment has a greater focus on risk management policies and practices implemented by supervised institutions and their assessment by the supervisory authority as well as more emphasis on quality implementation of supervisory standards. The assessment has been conducted in accordance with the revised BCP assessment methodology approved by the Basel committee and was based on extensive discussions with officers and staff members of the Banking Supervision Department in National Bank of Moldova (NBM), and a review of internal supervisory documents, such as manuals, operating policies, examination reports, and external audit reports. The mission reviewed the BCP self-assessment undertaken by NBM preceding this assessment...

Bank Ownership and Lending Patterns during the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis : Evidence from Latin America and Eastern Europe

Cull, Robert; Martínez Pería, María Soledad
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.73%
This paper examines the impact of bank ownership on credit growth in developing countries before and during the 2008-2009 crisis. Using bank-level data for countries in Eastern Europe and Latin America, it analyzes the growth of banks' total gross loans as well as the growth of corporate, consumer, and residential mortgage loans. Although domestic private banks in Eastern Europe and Latin America contracted their loan growth rates during the crisis, there are differences in foreign and government-owned bank credit growth across regions. In Eastern Europe, foreign bank total lending fell by more than domestic private bank credit. These results are primarily driven by reductions in corporate loans. Furthermore, government-owned banks in Eastern Europe did not act counter-cyclically. The opposite was true in Latin America, where the growth of government-owned banks' corporate and consumer loans during the crisis exceeded that of domestic and foreign banks. Contrary to the case of foreign banks in Eastern Europe...

Financial Sector Assessment : Algeria

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP); Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.79%
Over the past decade, Algeria has courageously attempted to modernize its financial system, despite social strife, and unique challenges posed by the large hydrocarbon sector. However, lending by state-owned banks, mostly to public entities, still dominates financial intermediation, financial markets remain in their infancy, and, implementation of regulatory reforms is lagging. And, because of hydrocarbon-funded state support to borrowers and lenders alike, the financial system appears stable, although this "stability" carries high costs, and distorts risk pricing and governance. The report emphasizes that to alter these patterns, the authorities should push on several, mutually reinforcing policy fronts: privatization of all public banks over the medium term; improvements in the banking system, namely banking operations, to cut intermediation costs; stimulate a strong institutional framework, and regulation of hydrocarbon-induced liquidity and credit cycles, that curtail banks' risk-taking; and, undertake longer-term reforms to stimulate the non-bank financial sector. Nevertheless...

Bank Bailouts, Competition, and the Disparate Effects for Borrower and Depositor Welfare

Calderon, Cesar; Schaeck, Klaus
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.78%
This paper investigates how government interventions into banking systems such as blanket guarantees, liquidity support, recapitalizations, and nationalizations affect banking competition. This debate is important because the pricing of banking products has implications for borrower and depositor welfare. Exploiting data for 124 countries that witnessed different policy responses to 41 banking crises, and using difference-in-difference estimations, the paper presents the following key results: (i) Government interventions reduce Lerner indices and net interest margins. This effect is robust to a battery of falsification and placebo tests, and the competitive response also cannot be explained by alternative forces. The competition-increasing effect on Lerner indices and net interest margins is also confirmed once the non-random assignment of interventions is accounted for using instrumental variable techniques that exploit exogenous variation in the electoral cycle and in the design of the regulatory architecture across countries. (ii) Consistent with theoretical predictions...

MIGA Annual Report 2010, Volume 2; MIGA rapport annuel 2010 MIGA informe anual 2010 MIGA relatorio anual de 2010

Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: World Bank Annual Report
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.64%
The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency's (MIGA's) mandate to promote foreign direct investment into developing countries to improve people's lives and create more opportunities remains more important than ever. Despite a challenging business climate, during the past year MIGA sought out and supported projects that contributed to its mission and growth. In fiscal year 2010, MIGA provided $1.5 billion in new guarantee coverage. This amount targeted a wide range of projects across all regions from bank liquidity in Serbia and Latvia to guarantees on complex port projects in Turkey, China, and Senegal. Over the past year MIGA supported investments in frontier markets, such as Sierra Leone and Ethiopia. And as was the case last year, MIGA experienced a lower-than-usual level of cancellation. MIGA also continued to support financial flows from banks to their subsidiaries in Europe and Central Asia that were harmed by the financial crisis. Beyond the financial sector, MIGA supported clients seeking political risk insurance for energy and infrastructure investments with a strong development impact. The projects that MIGA supports create jobs; provide water...

MIGA Annual Report 2010, Volume 1; MIGA rapport annuel 2010 MIGA informe anual 2010 MIGA relatorio anual de 2010

Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: World Bank Annual Report; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.49%
The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency's (MIGA's) mandate to promote foreign direct investment into developing countries to improve people's lives and create more opportunities remains more important than ever. Despite a challenging business climate, during the past year MIGA sought out and supported projects that contributed to its mission and growth. In fiscal year 2010, MIGA provided $1.5 billion in new guarantee coverage. This amount targeted a wide range of projects across all regions from bank liquidity in Serbia and Latvia to guarantees on complex port projects in Turkey, China, and Senegal. Over the past year MIGA supported investments in frontier markets, such as Sierra Leone and Ethiopia. And as was the case last year, MIGA experienced a lower-than-usual level of cancellation. MIGA also continued to support financial flows from banks to their subsidiaries in Europe and Central Asia that were harmed by the financial crisis. Beyond the financial sector, MIGA supported clients seeking political risk insurance for energy and infrastructure investments with a strong development impact. The projects that MIGA supports create jobs; provide water...

Channels of Transmission of the 2007/09 Global Crisis to International Bank Lending in Developing Countries

Adams-Kane, Jonathon; Jia, Yueqing; Lim, Jamus Jerome
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.95%
During a financial crisis, credit provision by international banks may be stymied by three distinct, but related, channels: changes in lending standards as a result of increased economic uncertainty, changes in funding availability from interbank liquidity markets, and changes in solvency due to effects on bank balance sheets. This paper illuminates the manner by which each of these channels independently operated to affect developed-country bank lending in developing countries during the global financial crisis of 2007/09. It quantifies how changes in banks' uncertainty about the value of their asset holdings, access to interbank liquidity, and internal balance sheet considerations altered their supply of credit in the run-up, during, and in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis, both in terms of their relative magnitudes, as well as the sensitivity of these magnitudes to the crisis.

When the Rivers Run Dry : Liquidity and the Use of Wholesale Funds in the Transmission of the U.S. Subprime Crisis

Raddatz, Claudio
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.92%
This paper provides systematic evidence of the role of banks' reliance on wholesale funding in the international transmission of the ongoing financial crisis. It conducts an event study to estimate the impact of the liquidity crunch of September 15, 2008, on the stock price returns of 662 individual banks across 44 countries, and tests whether differences in the abnormal returns observed around those events relate to these banks' ex-ante reliance on wholesale funding. Globally and within countries, banks that relied more heavily in non-deposit sources of funds experienced a significantly larger decline in stock returns even after controlling for other mechanisms. Within a country, the abnormal returns of banks with high wholesale dependence fell about 2 percent more than those of banks with low dependence during the three days following Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy. This large differential return suggests that liquidity played an important role in the transmission of the crisis.

El Salvador - Financial sector assessment

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP)
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.78%
Despite the global and domestic shocks of 2008-2009, the banking sector remains sound. Salvadoran banks were not directly exposed to the global financial crisis. However, the parent banks of several major Salvadoran banks were and directed subsidiaries to conserve risk capital. The higher risk aversion and recession in the United States, combined with uncertainty about the 2009 elections, led to a sharp economic downturn, and a decline in both credit demand and supply. Banks' nonperforming loans increased and profitability declined. Even so, capitalization remained high. Stress tests indicate that most banks would be able to withstand large deposit withdraws and severe deterioration in credit quality arising from large macroeconomic or sectoral shocks. However, credit concentration risks appear significant. Regulated non-bank financial institutions do not pose significant risks, but pension funds' poor profitability is a concern for the long-term. Regulated cooperative banks and insurance companies report healthy financial indicators. Brokerage houses have reduced drastically their fund management activities...

Foreign Bank Subsidiaries' Default Risk During the Global Crisis : What Factors Help Insulate Affiliates from Their Parents?

Anginer, Deniz; Cerutti, Eugenio; Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.61%
This paper examines the association between the default risk of foreign bank subsidiaries and their parents during the global financial crisis, with the purpose of understanding what factors can help insulate affiliates from their parents. The paper finds evidence of a significant positive correlation between parent banks' and foreign subsidiaries' default risk. This correlation is lower for subsidiaries that have higher capital, retail deposit funding, and profitability ratios and that are more independently managed from their parents. Host country regulations also influence the extent to which shocks to the parents affect the subsidiaries' default risk. In particular, the correlation between the default risk of the subsidiary and the parent is lower for subsidiaries operating in countries that impose higher capital, reserve, provisioning, and disclosure requirements and tougher restrictions on bank activities.

Cambodia Economic Update, April 2014 : Coping with Domestic Pressures and Gaining from a Strengthened Global Economy

World Bank
Fonte: Phnom Penh Publicador: Phnom Penh
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.51%
Cambodia's economy has withstood domestic pressures and managed to sustain its high growth driven by its usual engines of growth. The external sector improved as a result of slower imports due to dampened domestic demand. The post-election adverse effects slowed down the demand for imports, while export growth advanced. Inflation rose to 4.7 percent year-on-year at the end of 2013, up from 2.5 percent at the end of 2012. Inflation is projected to remain in mid-single-digits over the short term. Financial deepening continues but the gap between credit and deposit growth rates has widened, reducing bank liquidity. Government revenue growth has moderated, resulting in an increase in the fiscal deficit. The latest joint World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) debt-sustainability analysis (DSA) conducted in 2013 shows that Cambodia's debt-distress rating remains low, with all debt-burden indicators projected to be below respective thresholds. The prospects for sustaining high growth appear favorable...

Dissecting Foreign Bank Lending Behavior During the 2008-2009 Crisis

Choi, Moon Jung; Gutierrez, Eva; Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.6%
This paper analyzes the lending behavior of foreign-owned banks during the recent global crisis. Using bank-level panel data for countries in Central and Eastern Europe, East Asia, and Latin America, the paper explores the role of affiliate and parent financial characteristics, host location, as well as the impact of parent geographic origin and reach on foreign banks' credit growth. Overall, the analysis finds robust evidence that foreign banks curtailed the growth of credit relative to other banks, independent of the host region. Banks from the United States reduced loan growth less than other parent banks. Neither the global nor regional reach of parent banks influenced the lending growth of foreign affiliates. However, the funding structure of foreign bank affiliates and the capitalization of parent banks do help explain the lending behavior of foreign banks during the global crisis. Although not the focus of the paper, it also finds that government-owned banks played a countercyclical role in all regions.

Mongolia Economic Update, November 2015

World Bank Group
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Report; Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.71%
Mongolia’s growth sharply slowed to 3.0 percent in the first half of 2015. External demand is weakening due to a continued dampening of the commodity market and slower growth in China, translating into a drop in exports. Slowing domestic demand is largely caused by a plunge in investment due to falling foreign direct investment (FDI). Measures were taken to curb the budget deficit, debt, and off-budget expenditures. New deficit and debt ceilings were set for 2015-18 by amending the fiscal stability law (FSL) in January. The 2015 budget was amended in January to curb the structural deficit within 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Growth is expected to slow in 2015-16, but a recovery in foreign investment will begin to support the growth of the non-mining sector in 2016. The Development Bank of Mongolia (DBM) is expected to provide about Mongolian Tughrik rates (MNT) 600 billion to its commercial portfolio in 2015, and to further reduce its commercial spending to MNT 300-400 billion in the next couple of years due to tight financing conditions. Under these assumptions...