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Banks, liquidity crises and economic growth

Ranciere, Romain
Fonte: Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV Publicador: Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.86%
How do the liquidity functions of banks affect investment and growth at different stages of economic development? How do financial fragility and the costs of banking crises evolve with the level of wealth of countries? We analyze these issues using an overlapping generations growth model where agents, who experience idiosyncratic liquidity shocks, can invest in a liquid storage technology or in a partially illiquid Cobb Douglas technology. By pooling liquidity risk, banks play a growth enhancing role in reducing inefficient liquidation of long term projects, but they may face liquidity crises associated with severe output losses. We show that middle income economies may find optimal to be exposed to liquidity crises, while poor and rich economies have more incentives to develop a fully covered banking system. Therefore, middle income economies could experience banking crises in the process of their development and, as they get richer, they eventually converge to a financially safe long run steady state. Finally, the model replicates the empirical fact of higher costs of banking crises for middle income economies.

Estudos sobre a solidez do sistema bancário da OCDE: crises bancárias, endividamento e incumprimento no período 1991 a 2009

Pedro, Cristina Maria Pereira
Fonte: Universidade de Évora Publicador: Universidade de Évora
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.9%
Resumo: O objectivo desta tese consiste no estudo da probabilidade de ocorrência de crises bancárias na OCDE, do endividamento dos bancos e do incumprimento verificado no crédito que concedem. Os resultados indicam que estas crises são mais frequentes em sistemas financeiros orientados para o mercado, quando o endividamento é superior, em momentos de recessão e elevada inflação. Existe contágio entre crises e a regulamentação e supervisão não evitam o seu registo. O endividamento dos bancos é determinado pela dimensão, rentabilidade e solvabilidade, bem como pelas taxas de juro, crescimento económico e nível de desenvolvimento dos países. O incumprimento de clientes resulta de baixa qualidade da gestão dos bancos e de momentos de recessão económica, sendo mais elevado em bancos menos rentáveis e que operam em países com menor rendimento per capita. Conjuntamente, os resultados facultam uma perspectiva complementar da solidez dos bancos da OCDE, inferindo sobre diferentes dimensões da sua actividade; OECD banking system soundness: studies about banking crises, leverage and impaired loans, from 1991 to 2009 ### Abstract: This thesis intends to study the probability of banking crises and the determinants of leverage and impaired loans. Results show that banking crises tend to occur mostly in marked-based financial systems...

Contagion in Banking Crises: A Spatial Probit Model

Amaral, Andrea; Abreu, Margarida; Mendes, Victor
Fonte: ISEG – Departamento de Economia Publicador: ISEG – Departamento de Economia
Tipo: Outros
Publicado em //2010 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.71%
We use a spatial Probit model to study banking crises and show that the probability of a systemic banking crisis depends on contagion and that this effect may result from business connections between institutions or from similarities between banking systems.

Banking Crises and Exports : Lessons from the Past

Iacovone, Leonardo; Zavacka, Veronika
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
67%
This paper analyzes the impact of banking crises on manufacturing exports exploiting the fact that sectors differ in their needs for external financing. Relying on data from 23 banking crises episodes involving both developed and developing countries during the period 1980-2000 the authors separate the impact of banking crises on export growth from that of other exogenous shocks (i.e. demand shocks). Their findings show that during a crisis the export of sectors more dependent on external finance grow significantly less than other sectors. However, this result holds only for sectors depending more heavily on banking finance as opposed to inter-firm finance. Furthermore, sectors characterized by higher degree of assets tangibility appear to be more resilient in the face of a banking crisis. The effect of the banking crises on exports is robust and additional to external demand shocks. The effect of the latter is independent and additional to that of a banking shock, and is particularly significant for sectors producing durable goods.

International Aid and Financial Crises in Donor Countries

Dang, Hai-Anh; Knack, Steve; Rogers, Halsey
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.99%
The global financial crisis has already led to sharp downturns in the developing world. In the past, international aid has been able to offset partially the effects of crises that began in the developing world, but because this crisis began in the wealthy countries, donors may be less willing or able to increase aid in this crisis. Not only have donor-country incomes fallen, but the cause of the drop -- the banking and financial-sector crisis -- may exacerbate the effect on aid flows because of its heavy fiscal costs. This paper estimates how donor-country banking crises have affected aid flows in the past, using panel data from 24 donor countries between 1977 and 2007. The analysis finds that banking crises in donor countries are associated with a substantial additional fall in aid flows, beyond any income-related effects, perhaps because of the high fiscal costs of crisis and the debt hangover in the post-crisis periods. In most specifications, aid flows from crisis-affected countries fall by an average of 20 to 25 percent (relative to the counterfactual) and bottom out only about a decade after the banking crisis hits. In addition...

The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Financial Crises

Reinhart, Carmen M.
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.66%
The Ds: Sharp economic downturns follow banking crises; with government revenues falling, fiscal deficits worsen; deficits lead to debt; as debts pile up rating downgrades follow. For the most fortunate countries it does not end in default.

Foreign Bank Participation and Crises in Developing Countries

Cull, Robert; Martínez Pería, María Soledad
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.84%
This paper describes the recent trends in foreign bank ownership in developing countries, summarizes the existing evidence on the causes and implications of foreign bank presence, and reexamines the link between banking crises and foreign bank participation. Using data on the share of banking sector assets held by foreign banks in over 100 developing countries during 1995-2002, the results show that countries that experienced a banking crisis tended to have higher levels of foreign bank participation than those that did not. Furthermore, panel regressions indicate that foreign participation increased as a result of crises rather than prior to them. However, post-crisis increases in foreign participation did not coincide with increased credit to the private sector, perhaps because in many cases foreign banks acquired distressed banks.

Do Incumbents Manipulate Access to Finance During Banking Crises?

Feijen, Erik
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.84%
The author tests the hypothesis that during systemic banking crises, access to finance is opportunistically tightened by incumbents to eliminate or weaken competition from mainly young firms. He finds this to be especially true in more corrupt countries. To do so, he uses a methodology similar to Rajan and Zingales (1998) on three-digit manufacturing industry-level data provided by the United Nations Statistics Division for about 15 industrial and developing countries in over 20 industries on average. The author shows that price-cost margins in externally more financially dependent industries are higher during crisis than in externally less dependent industries in countries with higher levels of corruption. He finds the opposite relationship for the change in the industry-level number of establishments during a crisis. The results withstand an array of robustness checks, including using different indices of corruption, different controls, and robust estimation techniques.

Managing the Real and Fiscal Effects of Banking Crises

Klingbiel, Daniela; Laeven, Luc
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.97%
The study provides two recent analyses, spurred by the recent East Asian crisis, of government responses to financial distress, and, also presents a comprehensive database on systemic, and borderline banking crises. In the first chapter, the authors review the tradeoffs involved in public policies for systemic, financial, and corporate sector restructuring. They find that consistent policies are crucial for success, though such consistency is often missing. This consistency covers many dimensions, and entails among other things, ensuring that there are sufficient resources for absorbing losses, and, that private agents face appropriate incentives for restructuring. The authors also find that sustainable restructuring, requires deep structural reforms, facing upfront, political economy factors. In the second chapter, the authors use cross-country evidence to determine whether specific crisis containment, and resolution policies, systematically influence the fiscal costs of resolving a crisis. They find that accommodating policies - such as blanket deposit guarantees...

The Transmission of Banking Crises to Households : Lessons from the 2008-2011 Crises in the ECA Region

Brown, Martin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
67.02%
This paper examines the impact of the recent banking crises in Europe and Central Asia with an emphasis on household income and consumption patterns. The analysis is based on the 2010 wave of the Life in Transition Survey, which covers 12,704 households in eleven countries that experienced a banking crisis between 2008 and 2011. It finds that households in middle-income crisis countries are more than twice as likely to be hit by an income shock as households in high-income crisis countries. The labor market channel is the predominant source of income shocks, with wage reductions more widespread than job-losses. In reaction to income shocks, households reallocate spending from non-essential goods to staple foods. Reductions in staple-food consumption are, however, prevalent among low-income households. The paper examines potential crisis mitigators and finds that at the macro level a flexible monetary regime is associated with fewer cutbacks in household consumption. At the meso level, it finds no evidence that foreign bank ownership amplified the transmission of banking crises to households in Europe. With respect to micro-level mitigators, the analysis finds that diversified income sources as well as stocks of non-financial and financial assets help households to cushion income shocks. Access to informal and formal credit also mitigates the impact of income shocks on household consumption...

Financial Crises, Credit Ratings, and Bank Failures : An Introduction

Reinhart, Carmen M.
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.63%
Financial crises of every variety rocked emerging markets in the second half of the 1990s. Nearly every region experienced currency crashes, banking crises were both numerous and severe, and a few countries, facing extreme duress, defaulted on their sovereign debt. Not surprisingly, then, there is considerable interest in policy and academic circles and within the investment community in gaining a better understanding of financial and economic distress.

Banking Crises and Exchange Rate Regimes : Is There a Link?

Domac, Ilker; Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.92%
The authors investigate the links between banking crises, and exchange rate regimes, using a comprehensive data set that includes developed, and developing countries over the last two decades. In particular, they examine whether the choice of exchange rate regime affects the likelihood, cost, and duration of banking crises. Empirical results indicate that adopting a fixed exchange rate, diminishes the likelihood of a banking crisis in developing countries. But once a banking crisis occurs, its real costs - in terms of forgone output growth - are higher for countries with more stringent exchange rate requirements. The duration of crises seems not to be affected by exchange rate policy. Instead, it is influenced mainly by the size of the credit boom before the crisis.

Controlling the Fiscal Costs of Banking Crises

Honohan, Patrick; Klingebiel, Daniela
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.96%
In recent decades, a majority of countries have experienced a systemic banking crisis requiring a major-and expensive-overhaul of their banking system. Not only do banking crises hit the budget with outlays that must be absorbed by higher taxes (or spending cuts), but they are costly in terms of forgone economic output. Many different policy recommendations have been made for limiting the cost of crises, but there has been little systematic effort to see which recommendations work in practice. The authors try to quantify the extent to which fiscal outlays incurred in resolving banking distress can be attributed to crisis management measures of a particular kind adopted by the government in the early years of the crisis. They find evidence that certain crisis management strategies appear to add greatly to fiscal costs: unlimited deposit guarantees, open-ended liquidity support, repeated recapitalization, debtor bail-outs, and regulatory forbearance. Their findings clearly tilt the balance in favor of a strict rather than an accommodating approach to crisis resolution. At the very least...

Inside the Crisis : An Empirical Analysis of Banking Systems in Distress

Demirguc-Kunt, Asli; Detragiache, Enrica; Gupta, Poonam
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
57.02%
Much of the substantial literature on banking crises, focuses on early warning indicators. The authors look at what happens to the economy, and the banking sector after a banking crisis breaks out. Much of the theory of banking crises assigns a central role to depositor runs, with vulnerability to runs viewed as a basic characteristic of banks as financial intermediaries. But banking systems can be financially distressed, even when depositors do not withdraw their deposits, if other bank creditors rush for the exit, or if banks become insolvent. Are contemporary banking crises characterized by large declines in deposits? The authors find that contemporary banking crises are not accompanied by declines in aggregate bank deposits, and credit does not fall relative to output, but the growth of both deposits, and credit does slow down substantially. Output recovery begins the second year after the crisis, and is not led by a resumption of credit growth. Instead, banks (including the stronger banks) reallocate their asset portfolio away from loans. This suggests that protecting deposits during a banking crisis...

The Impact of Banking Crises on Money Demand and Price Stability

Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.89%
The author empirically investigates the monetary impact of banking crises in Colombia, Chile, Denmark, Japan, Kenya, Malaysia, and Uruguay. She uses co-integration analysis and error correction modeling to research: 1) Whether money demand stability is threatened by banking crises. 2) Whether crises bring about structural breaks in the relationship between monetary indicators and prices. Overall, she finds no systematic evidence that banking crises cause money demand instability. Nor do the results consistently support the notion that the relationship between monetary indicators and prices undergoes structural breaks during crises. However, although individual coefficients in price equations do not seem to be severely affected by crises, crises can sometimes give rise to variance instability in price or inflation equations.

The Use of Asset Management Companies in the Resolution of Banking Crises

Klingebiel, Daniela
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.89%
Asset management companies have been used to address the overhang of bad debt in the financial system. There are two main types of asset management company: those set up to expedite corporate restructuring and those established for rapid disposal of assets. A review of seven asset management companies reveals a mixed record. In two of three cases, asset management companies for corporate restructuring did not achieve their narrow goal of expediting bank or corporate restructuring, suggesting that they are not good vehicles for expediting corporate restructuring. Only a Swedish asset management company successfully managed its portfolio, acting sometimes as lead agent in restructuring - and helped by the fact that the assets acquired had mostly to do with real estate, not manufacturing, which is harder to restructure, and represented a small fraction of the banking systems assets, which made it easier for the company to remain independent of political pressures and to sell assets back to the private sector. Asset management companies used to dispose of assets rapidly fared somewhat better. Two of four agencies (in Spain and the United States) achieved their objectives...

Banking Crises in Transition Economies : Fiscal Costs and Related Issues

Tang, Helena; Zoli, Edda; Klytchnikova, Irina
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
67%
The authors look at strategies for dealing with banking crises in 12 transition economies -- five from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE): Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Macedonia, and Poland; the three Baltic states: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania; and four countries from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS): Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Ukraine. Three types of strategies were used to deal with the crises. The CEE countries generally pursued extensive restructuring and recapitalizing of banks; most CIS countries pursued large-scale liquidation; and the Baltic states generally pursued a combination of liquidation and restructuring. The strategy pursued reflected macroeconomic conditions and the level of development in a country's banking sector. There were more new banks in the former Soviet Union (FSU-the CIS and Baltic states), but they tended to be small, undercapitalized, and not deeply engaged in financial intermediation. The CEE countries generally incurred higher fiscal costs than the FSU countries but ended up with sounder...

When Do Special Interests Run Rampant? Disentangling the Role in Banking Crises of Elections, Incomplete Information, and Checks and Balances

Keefer, Philip
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.73%
The author investigates the political determinants of government decisions that benefit special interest groups - especially government decisions to deal with banking crises. He finds that the better informed the voters, the more proximate elections, and the larger the number of political veto players ( conditional on the costs to voters of relevant policy decision), the smaller the government's fiscal transfer are to the financial sector and the less likely the government is to exercise forbearance in dealing with insolvent financial institutions. The results suggest that policies that might be appropriate for mitigating banking crises in the United States might be less effective in settings where voters are less informed, where elections are less competitive, and where there are fewer veto players, because in these settings checks and balances are missing. These policies include: a) Disseminating information about the costs of inefficient government decisions. b) Improving the structure of legislative regulatory oversight. c) Intervening early in insolvent banks. The author concludes that the more veto players there are, the less likely policies are to favor special interest groups (contrary to previous views). Moreover, the closer the elections...

Índices de risco sistêmico para o setor bancário; Systemic risk indicators for the banking sector

CAPELLETTO, Lucio Rodrigues; CORRAR, Luiz João
Fonte: Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade, Departamento de Contabilidade e Atuária Publicador: Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade, Departamento de Contabilidade e Atuária
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.9%
Os vultosos custos econômicos e sociais resultantes de crises financeiras têm conduzido os esforços de organismos internacionais e autoridades de supervisão para pesquisas sobre o risco sistêmico. O objetivo tem sido buscar características comuns que possam prever a proximidade das crises. Na mesma linha, este estudo visou desenvolver índices de risco sistêmico (IRS), formados por variáveis contábeis e de riscos, capazes de mensurar o nível de risco sistêmico no setor bancário. A regressão logística revelou a existência de indicadores com significância estatística na segregação dos sistemas bancários pelo nível de risco, especialmente aqueles relacionados com a qualidade dos créditos, os resultados e a taxa de juros. Os indicadores identificados como mais relevantes são: a volatilidade da inadimplência, da rentabilidade e da taxa de juros, e a média da rentabilidade e do risco de crédito. Além disso, a comparação da evolução dos indicadore com as crises ocorridas demonstrou a eficácia dos IRS na mensuração do risco nas crises bancárias sistêmicas.; The significant economic and social costs caused by financial crises have conducted the efforts of international institutions and supervisory authorities towards research about systemic risk. The main goal has been to identify common characteristics able to foresee the proximity of crises. Likewise...

Índices de risco sistêmico para o setor bancário; Systemic risk indicators for the banking sector

Capelletto, Lucio Rodrigues; Corrar, Luiz João
Fonte: Universidade de São Paulo. Escola de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade Publicador: Universidade de São Paulo. Escola de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; ; ; ; ; ; Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 01/08/2008 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.9%
Os vultosos custos econômicos e sociais resultantes de crises financeiras têm conduzido os esforços de organismos internacionais e autoridades de supervisão para pesquisas sobre o risco sistêmico. O objetivo tem sido buscar características comuns que possam prever a proximidade das crises. Na mesma linha, este estudo visou desenvolver índices de risco sistêmico (IRS), formados por variáveis contábeis e de riscos, capazes de mensurar o nível de risco sistêmico no setor bancário. A regressão logística revelou a existência de indicadores com significância estatística na segregação dos sistemas bancários pelo nível de risco, especialmente aqueles relacionados com a qualidade dos créditos, os resultados e a taxa de juros. Os indicadores identificados como mais relevantes são: a volatilidade da inadimplência, da rentabilidade e da taxa de juros, e a média da rentabilidade e do risco de crédito. Além disso, a comparação da evolução dos indicadore com as crises ocorridas demonstrou a eficácia dos IRS na mensuração do risco nas crises bancárias sistêmicas.; The significant economic and social costs caused by financial crises have conducted the efforts of international institutions and supervisory authorities towards research about systemic risk. The main goal has been to identify common characteristics able to foresee the proximity of crises. Likewise...