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Turmoil at Twenty : Recession, Recovery, and Reform in Central and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union

Mitra, Pradeep; Selowsky, Marcelo; Zalduendo, Juan
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Português
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35.94%
This book, written on the eve of the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989, addresses three questions that relate to recession, recovery, and reform, respectively, in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) transition countries. Did the transition from a command to a market economy and the period when it took place, plant the seeds of vulnerability that made transition countries (the region excluding Turkey) more prone to crisis than developing countries generally? Did choices made on the road from plan to market shape the ability of affected countries to recover from the crisis? What structural reforms do transition countries need to undertake to address the most binding constraints to growth in a world where financial markets have become more discriminating and where capital flows to transition and developing countries are likely to be considerably lower than before the crisis? This report is structured as follows: chapter one of the book analyses how countries fell into recession and crisis...

Growth Identification and Facilitation : The Role of the State in the Dynamics of Structural Change

Lin, Justin Yifu; Monga, Celestin
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.83%
Active economic policies by developing countries governments to promote growth and industrialization have generally been viewed with suspicion by economists, and for good reasons: past experiences show that such policies have too often failed to achieve their stated objectives. But the historical record also indicates that in all successful economies, the state has always played an important role in facilitating structural change and helping the private sector sustain it across time. This paper proposes a new approach to help policymakers in developing countries identify those industries that may hold latent comparative advantage. It also recommends ways of removing binding constraints to facilitate private firms entry into those industries. The paper introduces an important distinction between two types of government interventions. First are policies that facilitate structural change by overcoming information and coordination and externality issues, which are intrinsic to industrial upgrading and diversification. Such interventions aim to provide information...

The Binding Constraint on Firms’ Growth in Developing Countries

Dinh, Hinh T.; Mavridis, Dimitris A.; Nguyen, Hoa B.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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46.12%
Firms in developing countries face numerous and serious constraints on their growth, ranging from corruption to lack of infrastructure to inability to access finance. Countries lack the resources to remove all the constraints at once and so would be better off removing the most binding one first. This paper uses data from World Bank Enterprise Surveys in 2006-10 to identify the most binding constraints on firm operations in developing countries. While each country faces a different set of constraints, these constraints also vary by firm characteristics, especially firm size. Across all countries, access to finance is among the most binding constraints; other obstacles appear to matter much less. This result is robust for all regions. Smaller firms must rely more on their own funds to invest and would grow significantly faster if they had greater access to external funds. As a result, a low level of financial development skews the firm size distribution by increasing the relative share of small firms. The results suggest that financing constraints play a significant part in explaining the "missing middle" -- the failure of small firms in developing countries to grow into medium-size or large firms.

Constraints to Growth in Malawi

Lea, Nicholas; Hanmer, Lucia
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.02%
This paper applies a growth diagnostics approach to identify the most binding constraints to private-sector growth in Malawi - a small, landlocked country in Southern Africa with one of the lowest per capita incomes in the world. The approach aims to identify the constraints (in terms of public policy, implementation, and investments) most binding on marginal investment, and therefore whose relaxation would have the largest impact on growth through the investment channel. The authors find that growth in Malawi has been primarily driven by the domestic multiplier effect from export revenues. The multiplier effect is particularly pronounced due to the high number of smallholder farmers, which produce Malawi s main export crop, tobacco, and consequently results in the widespread and rapid transmission of agricultural export income. Furthermore, despite changes in the structure of agricultural production from estate to smallholder farming and liberalization of prices and finance, a longstanding relationship persists between exports in real domestic currency and overall gross domestic product. This central role of exports in creating domestic demand highlights the importance of the real exchange rate in Malawi s growth story...

How Important Are Financing Constraints? The Role of Finance in the Business Environment

Ayyagari, Meghana; Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli; Maksimovic, Vojislav
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.94%
What role does the business environment play in promoting and restraining firm growth? Recent literature points to a number of factors as obstacles to growth. Inefficient functioning of financial markets, inadequate security and enforcement of property rights, poor provision of infrastructure, inefficient regulation and taxation, and broader governance features such as corruption and macroeconomic stability are all discussed without any comparative evidence on their ordering. In this paper, we use firm level survey data to present evidence on the relative importance of different features of the business environment. We find that although firms report many obstacles to growth, not all the obstacles are equally constraining. Some affect firm growth only indirectly through their influence on other obstacles, or not at all. Using Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) methodology as well as regressions, we find that only obstacles related to Finance, Crime and Policy Instability directly affect the growth rate of firms. Robustness tests further show that the Finance result is the most robust of the three. These results have important policy implications for the priority of reform efforts. Our results show that maintaining policy stability, keeping crime under control...

Development Trajectories : An Evolutionary Approach to Integrating Governance and Growth

Levy, Brian
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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35.94%
This note introduces an evolutionary approach to economic and governance reform. It lays out two especially prevalent trajectories that differ starkly from one another in how they prioritize and sequence economic growth, state building, and the development of civil society and political institutions. The first trajectory focuses initially on investments in state capacity. The second initially prioritizes smaller, more catalytic entry points and addresses specific capacity and institutional constraints as and when they become binding. Over the longer term, both trajectories endogenously generate incentives to strengthen institutions that underpin economic competition and political accountability. But over the short to medium term, the strengths of one trajectory are mirrored as the weakness of the other. For many low-income countries, the combination of rapid growth plus a seeming excess of either order or chaos may thus be in the (medium-term) nature of things, rather than an aberration that requires fixing.

Capacity Constraints and Public Financial Management in Small Pacific Island Countries

Haque, Tobias A.; Knight, David S.; Jayasuriya, Dinuk S.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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46.01%
Drawing on Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability assessment scores from 118 countries, this paper provides the first comparative analysis of public financial management performance in small Pacific Island Countries (PICs). It applies a Tobit regression model across the full cross-country sample of Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability scores and country variables to identify potential causes for the observed underperformance of Pacific Island countries relative to other countries of similar income. First, the analysis finds small population size to be negatively correlated with Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability scores, with the "population penalty" faced by small Pacific Island countries sufficient to explain observed underperformance. Second, through application of a new capacity index of Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability dimensions, it finds strong evidence in support of the hypothesis that small population size impacts scores through the imposition of capacity constraints: with a limited pool of human capital...

Financial Constraints, Working Capital and the Dynamic Behavior of the Firm

Chan, Rosanna
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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56.05%
Financial constraints are widespread in developing countries, where even short-term credit is limited. Finance held by firms as working capital is a substantial proportion of sales revenue, yet the role of working capital is largely neglected by existing models of financial constraints. This paper presents a dynamic model of the firm that incorporates working capital by introducing a delay between factor payments and the receipt of revenue. In contrast with previous models, the working capital model predicts that firms under binding constraints will substitute between labor and capital in response to demand shocks, causing investment to be countercyclical. For firms near the margin of being constrained, constraints bind when positive production opportunities arise. Output growth is therefore constrained in response to positive shocks but not to negative shocks. Simulations suggest that models without working capital may understate the predicted effects of financial constraints on production efficiency, firm profit and growth over time. The predictions are tested with the Bangladesh Panel Survey data for manufacturing firms. Consistent with the theory...

Savings and the Terms of Trade under Borrowing Constraints

Agenor, Pierre-Richard; Aizenman, Joshua
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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45.8%
The authors examine the extent to which permanent terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings. Using a simple three-period model, they show that if households expect to face binding constraints on borrowing in bad states of nature (when the economy is in a long trough rather than a sharp peak). Savings rates will respond asymmetrically to favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade - in contrast with the predictions of conventional consumption-smoothing models. They test the asymmetric effects of terms-of-trade disturbances using an econometric model that controls for various standard determinants of private savings. The results - based on panel data for non-oil commodity exporters of Sub-Saharan Africa for 1980-96 (a group of countries for which movements in the terms of trade have traditionally represented a key source of macroeconomic shocks) - indicate that increases in the permanent component of the terms of trade (measured using three alternative filtering techniques) indeed tend to be associated with higher rates of private savings.

Djibouti Looks to the Future : A South-South High Level Exchange

Fotouhi, Homa-Zahra; Foch, Arthur; Vakil, Roya
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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45.83%
This quick note highlights the key discussions and recommendations made during the high-level development exchange held in Djibouti on June 20-23, 2014. The event was co-organized by the World Bank office in Djibouti and the ministry of economy and finance under the high patronage of the President of the Republic of Djibouti. The event provided a platform to promote dialogue, share knowledge, and develop policies to eliminate poverty and enable a dynamic private sector. It aimed to strengthen Djibouti s capacity to define, through a concerted open dialogue, a path to sustainable development, and ensure that growth translates into poverty reduction, jobs, and economic opportunities for all. The experiences of Cape Verde, Mauritius, and Dubai, also demonstrate that the small size of the Djiboutian market, along with the high cost of electricity, do not constitute binding constraints to economic development. It is critical that serious consideration be given to the recommendations made during the roundtables. To this end...

Republic of Namibia - Addressing Binding Constraints to Stimulate Broad Based Growth : A Country Economic Report

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
Português
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45.94%
This Country Economic Report (CER) is a contribution to the ongoing debate among decision makers and diverse stakeholders in Namibia on the outlook for sustained growth and employment creation that addresses distribution issues as well. The report addresses the following main questions. What has been the past growth and employment record and what can be learned? What are the main binding constraints to growth? What has been the impact of this growth on poverty and inequality in Namibia? What are the prospects for broad-based growth in key sectors? What key elements of an employment strategy would complement a growth strategy? It begins with a discussion of Namibia's history and background, then its growth and employment record. The next section identifies binding constraints to growth. Chapter 4 discusses poverty and inequality, while the last chapter analyzes growth prospects in agriculture, fisheries and manufacturing.

New Voices in Investment : A Survey of Investors from Emerging Countries

Gomez-Mera, Laura; Kenyon, Thomas; Margalit, Yotam; Reis, Jose Guilherme; Varela, Gonzalo
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
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45.88%
One out of every three dollars invested abroad in 2012 was originated in multinationals from developing countries. This study sheds light on the characteristics, motivations, strategies, and needs of emerging market investors. By including information on investors, potential investors, and non-investors, the study identifies differentiating factors among them that are associated with investment decisions. Results show that emerging market investors are active players in international trade markets; they operate predominantly in manufacturing, and are publicly listed and larger than non-investors. They exhibit a strong regional bias: they invest more heavily in neighbors and in other countries in their own regions. Outward FDI from emerging markets is primarily market-seeking. Expanding regional and host markets emerged as the most important factor influencing the location of investments. However, emerging markets' firms face binding costs of investing in distant, culturally dissimilar markets, resulting...

What Matters to African Firms? The Relevance of Perceptions Data

Gelb, Alan; Ramachandran, Vijaya; Shah, Manju Kedia; Turner, Ginger
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.16%
Can perceptions data help us understand investment climate constraints facing the private sector? Or do firms simply complain about everything? In this paper, the authors provide a picture of how firms' views on constraints differ across countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using the World Bank's Enterprise Surveys database, they find that reported constraints reflect country characteristics and vary systematically by level of income-the most elemental constraints to doing business (power, access to finance, ability to plan ahead) appear to be most binding at low levels of income. As countries develop and these elemental constraints are relaxed, governance-related constraints become more problematic. As countries move further up the income scale and the state becomes more capable, labor regulation is perceived to be more of a problem-business is just one among several important constituencies. The authors also consider whether firm-level characteristics-such as size, ownership, exporter status, and firms' own experience-affect firms' views on the severity of constraints. They find that...

Mongolia - Sources of Growth : Country Economic Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.83%
This economic report aims to inform the ongoing debate on the Government's long term development priorities in Mongolia. It discusses the key facts and potential implications the government would need to consider when determining its public spending, public investment program, fiscal space, and borrowing strategy going forward. The report begins by reviewing the Mongolian growth experience over the 1990s as a pre-requisite to understand the present endowments, and the circumstances under which one needs to think about the future. Chapter 2 applies the "growth diagnostics" approach to identify those factors that are "binding" constraints to growth and are areas in need of immediate policy interventions by the government. Chapter 3 discusses the issues that will need to be addressed in order to develop non-mining sector activities with the aim of economic and export diversification and suggests policies to encourage firm innovation'' and private sector growth. Chapter 4 discusses policies to relax infrastructure bottlenecks in the context of regional development and Mongolia's unique geography. Chapter 5 presents a menu of policies tailored to address the mismatch of skills workers bring to the market and those demanded by the market. Chapter 6 discusses issues related to appropriate management and development of its mineral wealth...

Benin - Constraints to Growth and Potential for Diversification and Innovation : Country Economic Memorandum

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.06%
With favorable geographical location, macroeconomic stability, debt reduction, progress on structural reforms, and political stability, Benin will seem to have the foundations for a dynamic, diversified economy. Yet the country's economic structure has not evolved, remaining highly dependent on cotton and transit trade, and per-capita growth has slowed down in recent years. The government has requested the World Bank's assistance in understanding the constraints to growth and evaluating the country's potential for diversification and innovation as it seeks to lead the country to emerging market status by 2020. The government is well aware that the vulnerabilities associated with the country's dependence on cotton and transit trade impede the attainment of this goal. Response to the government's request, the objective of the Benin Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) is therefore to identify and analyze the key economic and institutional constraints to growth, including through diversification and innovation. The CEM contains four main chapters...

Revisiting the Constraints to Pakistan's Growth

Lopez-Calix, José; Touqeer, Irum
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.03%
This paper revisits the identification of the binding constraints to investment and growth in Pakistan by rigorously applying the growth diagnostic framework. It has a central finding: Pakistan's economy faces two major groups of constraints emerging and structural. The emerging constraints include infrastructure (energy) deficit, high macro-fiscal risks, and inadequate international financing (high country risks and low FDI inflows). The structural binding constraints that persistently affect prospects of sustainable growth in Pakistan are low access to domestic finance, high anti-export bias, bad taxation system, micro risks (bad governance, excess business regulations, and poor civil service) and slow productive diversification.

Uganda - Moving Beyond Recovery, Investment and Behavior Change, For Growth, Volume 2, Overview

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
Português
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45.99%
In 2006 most of the people of Uganda, with the notable exception of those in the conflict-blighted Northern Region, enjoy a better quality of life and brighter opportunities in a stable and growing economy. Uganda's economy has bounced back beyond what could be regarded as recovery, with real incomes per person now exceeding the levels reached at Independence in 1962. The report structure is as follows: volume one synthesizes the conclusions from analysis in Volume two. In Chapter 1 of Volume two, emphasis is placed on understanding what drove past growth at macro and sector levels, and in particular, on how Uganda's firms and farms have evolved. Chapter 2 continues the retrospective of past growth in agriculture, the most important sector of the economy. The report provides a comprehensive review of growth trends in agriculture, using several data sources. The chapter provides fresh insights on recent trends in poverty and inequality. Chapter 3 presents growth diagnosis and it identifies short-term actions to remove emerging constraints to present and near-term future growth. Chapter 4 models alternative future growth paths and the impact o f alternative public investments on growth using a SAM-based CGE model. The analysis reveals there is little to be gained from 'robbing Peter to pay Paul' for example fixing infrastructure by reducing education financing. Chapters 6 and 7 return to the short-term priorities to remove binding constraints to growth...

Russian Federation - Export Diversification through Competition and Innovation : A Policy Agenda

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Financial Sector Study; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.83%
Russia's exports became further dominated by petroleum and natural gas over the last decade. The sector experienced double-digit annual export growth in the last decade and represented almost 65 percent of Russia's exports value in 2009 a product of higher commodity prices and higher export volumes. Export growth rates of the non-oil and gas sector were also notable. Such industries as machinery, electronics, transportation equipment and chemicals reached a combined growth rate in export value of 10 percent in the last decade. This more positive comparison, however, hides relevant structural limitations in Russia's trade performance. Moreover, Russia's revealed comparative advantage seems concentrated in the 'periphery' of the product-space map, which may limit the potential for export diversification. This includes industries such as raw materials (26 products) and forestry (11 products) out of a total of 97 identified products. (At the center of the product-space are industries such as metallurgy, vehicles...

High Resolution Genome Wide Binding Event Finding and Motif Discovery Reveals Transcription Factor Spatial Binding Constraints

Guo, Yuchun; Mahony, Shaun; Gifford, David K.
Fonte: Public Library of Science Publicador: Public Library of Science
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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46.16%
An essential component of genome function is the syntax of genomic regulatory elements that determine how diverse transcription factors interact to orchestrate a program of regulatory control. A precise characterization of in vivo spacing constraints between key transcription factors would reveal key aspects of this genomic regulatory language. To discover novel transcription factor spatial binding constraints in vivo, we developed a new integrative computational method, genome wide event finding and motif discovery (GEM). GEM resolves ChIP data into explanatory motifs and binding events at high spatial resolution by linking binding event discovery and motif discovery with positional priors in the context of a generative probabilistic model of ChIP data and genome sequence. GEM analysis of 63 transcription factors in 214 ENCODE human ChIP-Seq experiments recovers more known factor motifs than other contemporary methods, and discovers six new motifs for factors with unknown binding specificity. GEM's adaptive learning of binding-event read distributions allows it to further improve upon previous methods for processing ChIP-Seq and ChIP-exo data to yield unsurpassed spatial resolution and discovery of closely spaced binding events of the same factor. In a systematic analysis of in vivo sequence-specific transcription factor binding using GEM...

Inequality Constraints and Euler Equation Based Solution Methods

Rendahl, Pontus
Fonte: Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge Publicador: Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge
Tipo: Working Paper; not applicable
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.84%
Solving dynamic models with inequality constraints poses a challenging problem for two major reasons: dynamic programming techniques are reliable but often slow, while Euler equation based methods are fast but have problematic or unknown convergence properties. This paper attempts to bridge this gap. I show that a common iterative procedure on the Euler equation - usually referred to as time iteration - delivers a sequence of approximate policy functions that converges to the true solution under a wide range of circumstances. These circumstances extend to an arbitrarily large, but nite, set of endogenous and exogenous state-variables as well as a very broad spectrum of occasionally binding constraints.