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The Growth Report and New Structural Economics

Lin, Justin Yifu; Monga, Celestin
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.41%
Despite its heavy human, financial, and economic cost, the recent global recession provides a unique opportunity to reflect on the knowledge from several decades of growth research, draw policy lessons from the experience of successful countries, and explore new approaches going forward. In an increasingly globalized world where fighting poverty is not only a moral responsibility but also a strategy for confronting some of the major problems (diseases, malnutrition, insecurity and violence) that ignore boundaries and contribute to global insecurity, thinking about new ways of generating and sustaining growth is a crucial task for economists. This paper reassesses the evolution of knowledge on growth and suggests a new structural approach to the analysis. It offers a brief, critical review of lessons learned from growth research and examines the remaining challenges -- especially from the policy standpoint. It highlights how the 2008 Growth Commission Report identifies the stylized facts associated with sustained and inclusive growth. And it explains how the new structural economics provides a consistent framework for understanding the key findings of the Report.

Regional Economic Growth in Mexico : Recent Evolution and the Role of Governance

Weiss, Eli; Rosenblatt, David
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.42%
There has been substantial research in recent years examining the regional evolution of economic growth across states in Mexico -- with a particular focus on the post North American Free Trade Agreement period. There is also a vast literature using cross-country regressions to examine institutional determinants of economic growth, including government transparency, or "corruption," as a key institutional variable. This paper uses more recently available data for Mexican states to both update the general state convergence/divergence literature, and incorporate into the analysis more recently developed state level indicators of institutional factors related to government transparency. The authors do not find a systematic relationship between measures of government transparency and gross domestic product per capita growth in Mexico during 2001-2005; however, they do find that corruption is negatively associated with the level of state gross domestic product per capita. The contrasting results may imply that more years of data are necessary to be able to establish statistically significant relationships between state growth rates and measures of corruption.

Assessing the Impact of Public Spending on Growth : An Empirical Analysis for Seven Fast Growing Countries

Moreno-Dodson, Blanca
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.27%
The goal of this paper is to understand better, at the empirical level, how public spending contributes to growth by focusing on both the level and composition of public spending, in connection to the dynamics of GDP per capita growth. It attempts to answer two specific questions: (a) What are the policy conditions under which public spending contributes positively to growth? and (b) What are the public spending components that have a stronger and longer-lasting impact on growth? The analysis is applied to a sample of seven fast-growing developing countries: Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Botswana, and Mauritius, which have been among the top performers in the world in terms of GDP per capita growth during the period (1960-2006). The rationale for this country sample selection is twofold. The first hypothesis is that, given their positive growth achievements over a relatively long time period, perhaps it is more straightforward to establish a link to public spending in those countries. Second...

Patterns of Long Term Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Arbache, Jorge Saba; Page, John
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.41%
Using the most recent purchasing power parity data for 44 sub-Saharan African countries, this paper examines the characteristics of long run growth in Africa between 1975 and 2005. The authors investigate the following issues: cross-country income structure, income convergence, the country level distribution of income, growth and income persistence, and formation of convergence clubs.

A Normal Relationship? Poverty, Growth, and Inequality

Lopez, J. Humberto; Servén, Luis
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.45%
Using a large cross-country income distribution dataset spanning close to 800 country-year observations from industrial and developing countries, the authors show that the size distribution of per capita income is well approximated empirically by a lognormal density. The 0 hypothesis that per capita income follows a lognormal distribution cannot be rejected-although the same hypothesis is unambiguously rejected when applied to per capita consumption. The authors show that lognormality of per capita income has important implications for the relative roles of income growth and inequality changes in poverty reduction. When poverty reduction is the overriding policy objective, poorer and relatively equal countries may be willing to tolerate modest increases in income inequality in exchange for faster growth-more so than richer and highly unequal countries.

Revisiting Growth and Convergence : Is Africa Catching Up?

Tsangarides, Charalambos G.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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56.4%
This article summarizes the publication "Revisiting Gowth and Convergence: Is Africa Catching Up?" The neoclassical Solow framework has been the workhorse for empirical analysis of growth in industrial and developing countries. In this framework, steady state economic growth depends on exogenous technological progress and population growth. In particular, without technological progress, output per capita does not grow. An important feature of the neoclassical model that has been the central focus of empirical work is the convergence property: output levels of countries with similar technologies converge to a given level in the steady state. In the end, ceteris paribus, the lagging poor countries will tend to catch up with the rich. Using cross-sectional analysis the majority of the literature seems to have reached a consensus on the issue of convergence: the poor do catch up with the rich, at a rate of 2-3 percent per year. The obvious shortcoming of the neoclassical model is that long-run per capita growth is determined by the exogenous rate of technological progress. Work on endogenous growth theory has introduced alternative models that explain long-run growth...

Ownership and Growth

Gylfason, Thorvaldur; Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor; Zoega, Gylfi
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.16%
This article suggests how state enterprises can be incorporated into the theoretical and empirical growth literature. Specifically, it shows that if state enterprises are less efficient than private firms, invest less, employ less skilled labor, and are less eager to adopt new technology, then a large state enterprise sector tends to be associated with slow economic growth, all else remaining the same. The empirical evidence for 1978-92 indicates that, through a mixture of these channels, an increase in the share of state enterprises in employment by one standard deviation could reduce per capita growth by one to two percentage points a year from one country to another.

Low Schooling for Girls, Slower Growth for All? Cross-Country Evidence on the Effect of Gender Inequality in Education on Economic Development

Klasen, Stephan
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.41%
Using cross-country and panel regressions, this article investigates how gender inequality in education affects long-term economic growth. Such inequality is found to have an effect on economic growth that is robust to changes in specifications and controls for potential endogeneities. The results suggest that gender inequality in education directly affects economic growth by lowering the average level of human capital. In addition, growth is indirectly affected through the impact of gender inequality on investment and population growth. Some 0.4-0.9 percentage points of differences in annual per capita growth rates between East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and the Middle East can be accounted for by differences in gender gaps in education between these regions.

Small and Medium Enterprises, Growth, and Poverty : Cross-Country Evidence

Beck, Thorsten; Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli; Levine, Ross
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.27%
The authors explore the relationship between the relative size of the small and medium enterprise (SME) sector, economic growth, and poverty using a new database on the share of SME labor in the total manufacturing labor force. Using a sample of 76 countries, they find a strong association between the importance of SMEs and GDP per capita growth. This relationship, however, is not robust to controlling for simultaneity bias. So, while a large SME sector is characteristic of successful economies, the data fail to support the hypothesis that SMEs exert a causal impact on growth. Furthermore, the authors find no evidence that SMEs reduce poverty. Finally, they find qualified evidence that the overall business environment facing both large and small firms-as measured by the ease of firm entry and exit, sound property rights, and contract enforcement-influences economic growth.

The Effect of Aid on Growth : Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment

Galiani, Sebastian; Knack, Stephen; Xu, Lixin Colin; Zou, Ben
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.4%
The literature on aid and growth has not found a convincing instrumental variable to identify the causal effects of aid. This paper exploits an instrumental variable based on the fact that since 1987, eligibility for aid from the International Development Association (IDA) has been based partly on whether or not a country is below a certain threshold of per capita income. The paper finds evidence that other donors tend to reinforce rather than compensate for reductions in IDA aid following threshold crossings. Overall, aid as a share of gross national income (GNI) drops about 59 percent on average after countries cross the threshold. Focusing on the 35 countries that have crossed the income threshold from below between 1987 and 2010, a positive, statistically significant, and economically sizable effect of aid on growth is found. A one percentage point increase in the aid to GNI ratio from the sample mean raises annual real per capita growth in gross domestic product by approximately 0.35 percentage points. The analysis shows that the main channel through which aid promotes growth is by increasing physical investment.

Essays on transportation infrastructure, urbanisation and economic growth: evidence from China.

He, Xiaobo
Fonte: Universidade de Adelaide Publicador: Universidade de Adelaide
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
Publicado em //2013 Português
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46.47%
China’s spectacular economic growth during the reform era from 1978 to 2008 has captivated much attention both in academia and in the policy arena. This thesis looks at this period of Chinese economic reforms and the consequences for China’s economic growth, urbanisation, and income inequality, in which transportation infrastructure plays a pivotal role. Among many contributors to the economic growth in China, as measured by GDP per capita growth, recent studies shed light on the importance of transportation infrastructure. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of the function of transportation infrastructure in the context of China and an accurate quantification of its contribution are desired. Accompanying the GDP per capita growth, China also experienced a rapid process of urbanisation during 1978–2008. However, whether the GDP per capita growth causes urbanisation is not yet clear. After the accession to the WTO in 2001, China became an important player in world trade. For example, China’s exports increased from USD 0.27 trillion in 2001 to USD 1.43 trillion in 2008, which has resulted in massive income growth nation-wide. However, the income has been unequally distributed among wage earners. Since urban wage earners are more likely to work in exporting sectors...

Distortions to Agriculture and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Anderson, Kym; Brückner, Markus
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.37%
To what extent has Sub-Saharan Africa's slow economic growth over the past five decades been due to price and trade policies that discouraged production of agricultural relative to non-agricultural tradables? This paper uses a new set of estimates of policy induced distortions to relative agricultural prices to address this question econometrically. First, the authors test if these policy distortions respond to economic growth, using rainfall and international commodity price shocks as instrumental variables. They find that on impact there is no significant response of relative agricultural price distortions to changes in real GDP per capita growth. Then, the authors test the reverse proposition and find a statistically significant and sizable negative effect of relative agricultural price distortions on the growth rate of Sub-Saharan African countries. The fixed effects estimates yield that, during the 1960-2005 period, a ten percentage points increase in distortions to relative agricultural prices decreased the region's real GDP per capita growth rate by about half a percentage point per annum.

It's Not Factor Accumulation : Stylized Facts and Growth Models

Easterly, William; Levine, Ross
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Journal Article; Publications & Research :: Journal Article
Português
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46.45%
The article documents five stylized facts of economic growth: (1) the 'residual' (total factor productivity, tfp) rather than factor accumulation accounts for most of the income and growth differences across countries; (2) income diverges over the long run; (3) factor accumulation is persistent while growth is not, and the growth path of countries exhibits remarkable variation; (4) economic activity is highly concentrated, with all factors of production flowing to the richest areas; and (5) national policies are closely associated with long-run economic growth rates. These facts do not support models with diminishing returns, constant returns to scale, some fixed factor of production, or an emphasis on factor accumulation. However, empirical work does not yet decisively distinguish among the different theoretical conceptions of tfp growth. Economists should devote more effort toward modeling and quantifying tfp.

Growth Trends in the Developing World : Country Forecasts and Determinants

Ianchovichina, Elena; Kacker, Pooja
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.43%
The authors present real per capita GDP growth forecasts for all developing countries for the period 2005-14. For 55 of these countries, representing major world regions and accounting for close to 80 percent of the developing world's GDP, they forecast the growth effects of the main forces underpinning growth, assuming that these evolve following past trends. The authors find that for the average developing country the largest growth dividend comes from continued improvement in public infrastructure, followed by the growth contributions of rising secondary school enrollment, trade openness, and financial deepening. The joint contribution of these four growth determinants to average, annual per capita GDP growth in the next decade is estimated to be 1 percentage point. Failure to keep improving public infrastructure alone could reduce this growth dividend by 50 percent. The forecasted growth contributions differ by country qualitatively and quantitatively.

Sustaining Economic Welfare : Estimating Changes in Per Capita Wealth

Hamilton, Kirk
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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46.48%
The World Bank's "World Development Indicators 1999" highlights for the first time the "genuine" rate of saving for more than 100 countries around the globe. Genuine saving values the total change in economic assets, thereby providing an indicator of whether an economy is on a sustainable path. The Bank's new estimates of genuine saving broaden the usual national accounts definitions of assets to include human capital, minerals, energy, forest resources, and the stock of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Genuine saving measures the change in total assets rather than the change in per capita assets. Genuine saving data may answer the question, "Did total wealth rise or fall over the acoounting period?" But they do not address the question of whether an economy is sustainable with a growing population. Genuine saving could be positive even though per capita wealth is declining. The author explores the issue of measuring changes in per capita wealth--factoring in both growth in total assets (as measured by genuine saving) and population growth--as a more comprehensive indicator of sustainability. First he develops a theoretical approach to estimating total wealth. Then he presents cross-country estimates of changes in per capita wealth. Based on preliminary estimates...

Burkina Faso : Poverty Trends and Profile, 2003-2009

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Poverty Assessment; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.41%
Burkina Faso's Poverty Reduction Strategies (PRS) of the 2000s, which were implemented as annually rolled-over Priority Action Programs, focused on four pillars: a) accelerating broad based growth; b) expanding access to social services for the poor; c) increasing employment and income-generating activities for the poor; and d) promoting good governance. Increased public expenditure and targeted social service provision also led to improved access to basic services. In the area of education, progress has been made in terms of school infrastructure. Over the period of 2003-2008, substantial expansion (around 40 percent) of both the number of schools and the number of classrooms was achieved. Controlling and treating epidemic diseases also had good results, thanks to prevention and public awareness efforts and improved hygiene. Meanwhile, the country has been through several exogenous shocks and crises likely to have affected the pattern of poverty outcomes. In the past two decades, Burkina Faso's income per capita growth has been positive and less volatile relative to the past. Recent growth trends appear to be anchored by a general recovery in the primary sector. Household consumption was just as volatile as income per capita in the 1980s...

Benchmarking the Determinants of Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean

Araujo, Jorge Thompson; Brueckner, Markus; Clavijo, Mateo; Vostroknutova, Ekaterina; Wacker, Konstantin M.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: General Economy, Macroeconomics and Growth Study; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.41%
The Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region has seen a decade of remarkable growth and income convergence. Growth has been a key driver for reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity. It has been debated how much of this decade of growth has been driven by policy reforms and how much was due to the favorable external conditions. While external factors were supportive and relevant, the effect of domestic policies was just as relevant for explaining LAC's recent growth performance. The emphasis of domestic policy has shifted from stabilization policies to structural policies. In addition, a benchmarking exercise reveals which policy gaps will lead to the highest potential growth-payoffs for each country and helps identify potential trade-offs. The authors analyze growth in LAC using descriptive statistics and growth econometrics. The authors use these results for explaining the pattern of growth in LAC over the last decade, for looking ahead, and to identify potential policy gaps.

Agriculture Public Spending and Growth in Indonesia

Armas, Enrique Blanco; Osorio, Camilo Gomez; Moreno-Dodson, Blanca; Abriningrum, Dwi Endah
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.24%
This paper analyzes the trends and evolution of public spending in the agriculture sector in Indonesia, as well as the impact of public spending on agricultural growth. It finds that, in line with empirical work undertaken in other countries, public spending on agriculture and irrigation during the period 1976-2006 had a positive impact on agricultural growth, while public spending on fertilizer subsidies had the opposite effect. The composition of spending patterns in Indonesia over the past decade can partly explain why significant increases in public spending for agriculture have not resulted in a commensurate increase of agricultural production. The paper is structured as follows. Section I presents analytical and empirical findings about the impact of overall public spending on growth, with a particular focus on Indonesia, followed by an analysis of the government's role in agriculture. More precisely, it discusses how public spending can contribute to higher productivity and faster growth in the sector. The section draws lessons from the empirical literature and country examples worldwide...

Economic Growth in Ghana : Determinants and Prospect

Raggl, Anna K.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.4%
This paper employs a simple cross-country panel framework to assess the determinants of growth in Ghana's gross domestic product over the past four decades. A set of standard covariates is used to explain growth rates. Natural resource variables are included because the effects of natural resource rents in gross domestic products are of particular interest for Ghana. Using the preferred specification, Ghana's growth potential is predicted for the upcoming decades under different scenarios. The results indicate that under the most pessimistic scenario of no improvements in the determinants of growth compared with the period 2005-09, Ghana's gross domestic product per capita growth rates will stagnate at approximately 4.5 percent during the next decade and decrease thereafter. If the policy measures and country characteristics improve in the way they did in the past three decades, average per capita growth rates of roughly 5.5 percent could be reached during 2015-34. Taking into account the expected oil production until 2034 adds 0.6 percentage points to projected gross domestic product growth rates on average.

Bolivia Poverty Assessment : Establishing the Basis for Pro-Poor Growth; Evaluacion de la pobreza en Bolivia : sentando las bases para un crecimiento a favor de los pobres

Arias, Omar S.; Bendini, Magdalena
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.25%
This brief discussion of Bolivia's poverty assessment notes that Bolivia's growth prospects remain vulnerable to domestic instability and external circumstances. Because of the depth and breadth of poverty in Bolivia, and the skewed income distribution, high GDP per capita growth rates about 4 to 5 percent per year are necessary in the medium and longer term, if the country's poverty level is to be significantly reduced. The national MDG target of reducing the incidence of extreme poverty in half by 2015 could be achieved with growth rates in this range, along with other pro-poor policy interventions. Even higher per capita growth is needed to meet the MDG of reducing poverty in half. Economic simulations indicate that the country can improve its future growth potential through a comprehensive strategy of mutually-reinforcing reforms that includes macroeconomic stability.