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Abertura da conta de capital e crescimento econômico nos países emergentes : teorias, evidências empíricas e um estudo do caso brasileiro

Tófoli, Paula Virgínia
Fonte: Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul Publicador: Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Tipo: Dissertação Formato: application/pdf
Português
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56.35%
A maioria dos trabalhos sobre o impacto macroeconômico da abertura da conta de capital não encontra nenhum efeito da liberalização sobre as variáveis reais. No entanto, uma leitura cuidadosa desta literatura revela que a maioria destes estudos não trata realmente da teoria que se propõe a testar. Aqueles que defendem um impacto positivo da liberalização financeira sobre o crescimento econômico aceitam as previsões do modelo de crescimento neoclássico de redução permanente no custo do capital e aumento temporário no investimento nos mercados emergentes, quando estes liberalizam suas contas de capital. A maior parte dos artigos que não encontram efeitos da liberalização sobre as variáveis reais não testa estas previsões. Uma ramificação pequena, mas crescente, desta literatura sobre a relação entre liberalização da conta de capital e crescimento econômico, que leva em conta a natureza temporal das previsões do modelo neoclássico (os artigos que adotam o chamado enfoque do experimento de política), encontra evidências de que a abertura da conta de capital em um país emergente gera efeitos significativos sobre o investimento e crescimento econômico. A desagregação dos dados, ou seja, a aplicação do enfoque do experimento de política a dados de firmas...

O efeito da liberalização da conta de capital sobre a política fiscal: uma avaliação do caso brasileiro recente

Pires,Manoel Carlos de Castro
Fonte: Editora 34 Publicador: Editora 34
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/06/2006 Português
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56.1%
In recent years there has been some agreement that capital account liberalization have provided restriction on economic policies. This paper provides some evidence for Brazil. I find evidence that capital account liberalization provided limits to fiscal policy in Brazil and its effects can depend on exchange rate policy.

Managing Financial Integration and Capital Mobility -- Policy Lessons from the Past Two Decades

Aizenman, Joshua; Pinto, Brian
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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46.28%
The accumulated experience of emerging markets over the past two decades has laid bare the tenuous links between external financial integration and faster growth, on the one hand, and the proclivity of such integration to fuel costly crises on the other. These crises have not gone without learning. During the 1990s and 2000s, emerging markets converged to the middle ground of the policy space defined by the macroeconomic trilemma, with growing financial integration, controlled exchange rate flexibility, and proactive monetary policy. The OECD countries moved much faster toward financial integration, embracing financial liberalization, opting for a common currency in Europe, and for flexible exchange rates in other OECD countries. Following their crises of 1997-2001, emerging markets added financial stability as a goal, self-insured by building up international reserves, and adopted a public finance approach to financial integration. The global crisis of 2008-2009, which originated in the financial sector of advanced economies...

Macroeconomic Volatility after Trade and Capital Account Liberalization

Pancaro, Cosimo
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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56.2%
What are the equilibrium effects of trade and capital liberalization on consumption smoothing? This question is addressed by studying the response to productivity shocks in a baseline two country, two goods, incomplete market model, where foreign borrowing is secured by collateral. The paper shows that international financial integration, modeled by relaxing a borrowing constraint a la Kiyotaki in the domestic country, worsens consumption smoothing; international trade integration, modeled by a reduction of non linear iceberg transportation costs, improves it. As a measure of consumption smoothing, the analysis uses the ratio between the simulated standard deviation of consumption growth and the simulated standard deviation of output growth. These results are qualitatively consistent with the empirical evidence provided by Kose, Prasad and Terrones (2003).

Potential Gains from Capital Flight Repatriation for Sub-Saharan African Countries

Fofack, Hippolyte; Ndikumana, Leonce
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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46.33%
Despite the recent increase in capital flows to Sub-Saharan Africa, the region remains largely marginalized in financial globalization and chronically dependent on official development aid. And with the potential decline in the level of official development assistance in a context of global financial crisis, the need to increase domestic resources mobilization as well as non-debt generating external resources is critical now more than ever before. However, the debate on resource mobilization has overlooked an important untapped source of funds consisting of the massive stocks of private wealth stashed in Western financial centers, a substantial part of which left the region in the form of capital flight. This paper argues that the repatriation of flight capital should take a more prominent place in this debate from a moral standpoint and for clear economic reasons. On the moral side, the argument is that a large proportion of the capital flight legitimately belongs to the Africans and therefore must be restituted to the legitimate claimants. The economic argument is that repatriation of flight capital will propel the sub-continent on a higher sustainable growth path while preserving its financial stability and without mortgaging the welfare of its future generations through external borrowing. The analysis in the paper demonstrates quantitatively that the gains from repatriation are large and dominate the expected benefits from other sources such as debt relief. It is estimated that if only a quarter of the stock of capital flight was repatriated to Sub-Saharan Africa...

Does Capital Account Openness Lower Inflation?

Gupta, Abhijit Sen
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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56.14%
This paper investigates the relationship between capital account openness and inflation since the 1980s. It argues that widespread capital account liberalization during the last two decades appears to have contributed to the worldwide disinflation observed during the same period. The paper builds a theoretical model to motivate the presence of a negative link between financial integration and inflation. It tests the prediction of the theoretical model by employing static and dynamic panel data procedures. Financial integration appears to discipline monetary authorities, or to help them convince the private sector that they will be more disciplined in the future.

Are Price-Based Capital Account Regulations Effective in Developing Countries?

David, Antonio C.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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56.32%
The author evaluates the effectiveness of policy measures adopted by Chile and Colombia, aiming to mitigate the deleterious effects of pro-cyclical capital flows. In the case of Chile, according to his Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) analysis, capital controls succeeded in reducing net short-term capital flows but did not affect long-term flows. As far as Colombia is concerned, the regulations were capable of affecting total flows and also long-term ones. In addition, the co-integration models indicate that the regulations did not have a direct effect on the real exchange rate in the Chilean case. Nonetheless, the model used for Colombia did detect a direct impact of the capital controls on the real exchange rate. Therefore, the results do not seem to support the idea that those regulations were easily evaded.

Controls on Capital Inflows and External Shocks

David, Antonio C.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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46.3%
The author attempts to analyze whether price-based controls on capital inflows are successful in insulating economies against external shocks. He presents results from vector auto regressive (VAR) models that indicate that Chile and Colombia, countries that adopted controls on capital inflows, seem to have been relatively well insulated against external disturbances. Subsequently, he uses the auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration to isolate the effects of the capital controls on the pass-through of external disturbances to domestic interest rates in those economies. The author concludes that there is evidence that the capital controls allowed for greater policy autonomy.

Malaysian Capital Controls

Hood, Ronald D.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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56.18%
Malaysian authorities implemented controls on international capital flows late in the Asian crisis, when most of the portfolio outflows had already occurred. The exchange rate had depreciated sharply and was fixed at an undervalued level, making further capital flight unlikely. The turnaround in the stock market, the return of positive GDP growth, the building of reserves, and the relaxation of interest rates all coincided with the imposition of controls. But the same changes took place in other crisis countries that did not follow the same control policies. However, the controls provided insurance against the consequences of possible further disturbances. They created a breathing space for making needed reforms, and the authorities made good use of this time, stabilizing the financial system and pushing ahead with regulatory and supervisory reform for the financial sector and capital markets - a prerequisite for fully liberalizing the capital account. Malaysia incurred a cost: an additional 300 basis point spread paid on floating rate debt for a period after the controls were instituted. But the exit strategy has so far not resulted in lasting flight of portfolio capital. Foreign direct investment remains below precrisis levels...

Capital Account Liberalization : What Do Cross-Country Studies Tell Us?

Eichengreen, Barry
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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66.36%
Capital account liberalization, it is fair to say, remains one of the most controversial and least understood policies of our day. One reason is that different theoretical perspectives have very different implications for the desirability of liberalizing capital flows. Another is that empirical analysis has failed to yield conclusive results. The answer, another influential strand of thought contends, is that this efficient-markets paradigm is fundamentally misleading when applied to capital flows. Limits on capital movements are a distortion. It is an implication of the theory of the second best that removing one distortion need not be welfare enhancing when other distortions are present.

Ride the Wild Surf : An Investigation of the Drivers of Surges in Capital Inflows

Calderón, César; Kubota, Megumi
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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Over the past 15 years, gross inflows to industrial and developing countries have enjoyed a wild ride. After reaching record highs in the run-up to the global financial crisis, they collapsed dramatically in 2008-09. As signs of global recovery reappeared, capital inflows resumed although at different speeds. The recovery in flows was faster and sharper in developing countries. This paper aims at understanding the (domestic and external) drivers of these surges in gross inflows using quarterly data for 67 countries from 1975 to 2010. It finds that domestic and external factors have significant explanatory power in driving surges of inflows. This finding holds for the sample of industrial countries whereas domestic factors play a significantly larger role in explaining surges to developing countries. Zooming into the findings shows that: (a) financial booms tend to attract massive capital inflows, (b) surges to either industrial or developing countries are driven by regional contagion, and (c) strong growth and natural resource abundance are keys to attract inflows of foreign capital into developing countries.

Indonesia Current Account Assessment

Nedeljkovic, Milan; Varela, Gonzalo; Savini Zangrandi, Michele
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Tipo: Relatório
Português
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The analysis presented in this report suggests that Indonesia’s recent current account deficit results from the interaction of short, medium and long run factors that can be grouped into four blocks: external shocks, domestic policies, international integration, and stage of development and demographics.

Exchange rate regimes, capital account opening and real exchange rates: evidence from Thailand

Jongwanich, Juthathip
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 403272 bytes; 360 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
Português
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66.16%
This paper examines the roles of pegged exchange rate regime and capital account opening inducing persistent RER appreciation in the lead-up to the 1997 currency crisis in Thailand. The three-sector (primary, manufacturing, and nontradable) economy-wide model is constructed and policy simulation experiments are undertaken. Key findings are imposing capital control under a pegged exchange rate regime would have averted the persistent internal RER appreciation and boom in nontradable sector. However, it would not have averted persistent external RER appreciation. Exports and output would have eventually declined because of the capital shortage. A freely floating regime only with a high developmental level of foreign exchange and financial markets would have been able to avert both persistent internal and external RERs appreciation. The export and output would have eventually increased. However, this regime would have generated fluctuations in domestic prices and output. The managed floating regime (combined with inflation targeting) would have helped reduce such adverse effects while retaining the benefit from exchange rate flexibility. In a context where the foreign exchange and financial markets are not well developed, capital control measures could be beneficial to ensure smooth functioning of a managed floating regime.; no

Financial developments in India: should India introduce capital account convertibility?

Gupta, Desh; Sathye, Milind
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 151001 bytes; 352 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
Português
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66.31%
The objective of this paper is to examine whether India has reached a stage of financial development when full capital account convertibility could be introduced. In its report on capital account convertibility the Tarapore Committee provided a succinct and subtle definition: capital account convertibility is the freedom to convert local financial assets into foreign financial assets and vice-versa at market determined rates of exchange. It is associated with changes of ownership on foreign/domestic financial assets and liabilities and embodies the creation and liquidation of claims on or by the rest of the world. Capital account convertibility can be, and is, coexistent with restrictions other than on external payments. It also does not preclude the imposition of monetary/fiscal measures relating to foreign exchange transactions, which are of a prudential nature. (Reserve Bank of India, 1997) The issue is important because until the Asian crises of 1997-98, there was a growing consensus that free global financial flows were positive for all and more so for the developing countries. This was based on the proposition that it would help improve global allocation of financial resources. As the returns on capital were higher in developing countries...

Russian Economic Report, No. 29, Spring 2013 : Recovery and Beyond

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling; Economic & Sector Work
Português
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46.32%
Russia's economy grew 3.4 percent in 2012, down from 4.3 percent in 2011. The economy of Russia slowed in the second half of the year due to weak net exports, negative base effects, and destocking at the end of the year. More than four years after the global financial crisis hit, the world economy remains sluggish. Industrial production lost momentum throughout last year, exports expanded only at a moderate pace, and imports even declined for three month during autumn 2012. Growth declined mainly due to weaker performance of investment. Inventories were flat as the restocking cycle after the crisis came to an end, and fixed investment expanded only moderately as business remained cautious about future prospects. The weaker performance of the tradable sectors reflects sluggish global demand and the poor agricultural harvest but also low competitiveness in parts of the industry, as growth declined for all three subsectors. The capital account strengthened in 2012 as net capital outflows decreased. According to preliminary estimates...

Toolkit for the Analysis of Current Account Imbalances

Cusolito, Ana Paula; Nedeljkovic, Milan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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46.37%
The fluctuating economies and differing experiences of countries before and after the economic crisis of 2008 indicate a complex network of possible influences. Persistent current account deficits and exchange rate misalignments frequently presage disruptive economic trends. The result can be external crises, exchange rate collapses, vulnerability to sudden stops, current account reversals, and economic slowdowns. When a growing number of countries run external deficits, investigation of the causes is warranted. It is crucial to understand the drivers of persistent current account deficits; the relative importance of cyclical and structural factors; conditions that imply external sustainability; sources of sustainable financing for the deficit; and steps governments can take to narrow the imbalance. This toolkit presents a framework that can be used to assess a country's external situation through the lens of the current and financial accounts. The framework is divided into three components: current account outcome analysis...

Capital Account Liberalization : Does Advanced Economy Experience Provide Lessons for China?

Chelsky, Jeff
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
Português
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66.37%
The initial post World War II pursuit of capital account liberalization (CAL) by advanced economies was Europe-centric, with roots in a broader political rather than economic agenda of greater European integration. In continental Europe, CAL was addressed mostly through the adoption of multilateral instruments and codes. In contrast, CAL by the United States and United Kingdom was pursued unilaterally, motivated by their status as global reserve currency issuers and global financial centers. China's situation is fundamentally different. China today has no equivalent to the European political motivation for CAL or the domestically driven financial motivation of the United States or the United Kingdom. And while China may have long-term aspirations to be a global reserve currency issuer, the extent to which it internationalizes its currency is constrained by powerful domestic economic and political interests that continue to benefit from an export-led growth model underpinned by a pegged and undervalued exchange rate...

Globalization and National Financial Systems

Hanson, James A.; Honohan, Patrick; Majnoni, Giovanni
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank and Oxford University Press Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank and Oxford University Press
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
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46.32%
The volume is divided into five traditional areas of finance: the macroeconomy, banking, securities markets, pension issues, and regulations. Four cross-cutting messages emerge. First, the erosion of national frontiers by trade, tourism, migration, and capital account liberalization means that residents of all countries have substantial financial assets, and often liabilities denominated in foreign currencies at home or abroad. Any analysis of national financial systems must take this into account. More important, this factor constrains governments' use of macroeconomic and financial policy and may contribute to economic fluctuations. Second, individuals and firms benefit substantially from the improved risk and return menu associated with global diversification. Diversification is of particular importance in developing countries where the lack of size and diversity of the national economy results in instability in the value of production. Third, the small size of most developing countries limits the efficiency and quality of financial services: banking...

Should Capital Flows Be Regulated? A Look at the Issues and Policies

Islam, Roumeen
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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56.23%
The author argues that externalities in financial markets, implicit and explicit guarantees on financial transactions, and information asymmetries in financial markets that may exacerbate contagion provide a rationale for a government role in managing the risk associated with cross-border capital flows. Governments can complement private sector risk management with measures that help deal with the volatility of capital flows. These measures include those that control the type and volume of capital flows and those that help investors make better investment decisions, and that may reduce herding behavior, such as better information provision. The main instruments that have been tried or recommended since the onset of the recent financial crises can be grouped in several categories. 1) Debt management: The composition, maturity structure, and level of external debt have played an important role in financial crises. High short-term debt relative to liquid assets has been found to be consistently correlated with financial crises in recent times. Governments can affect the level of debt (including private debt) and its composition...

Global Capital Flows and Financing Constraints

Harrison, Ann E.; Love, Inessa; McMillan, Margaret S.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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56.19%
Firms often cite financing constraints as one of their primary obstacles to investment. Global capital flows, by bringing in scarce capital, may ease the financing constraints of host country firms. But if incoming foreign investors borrow heavily from domestic banks, foreign direct investment may exacerbate financing constraints by crowding host country firms out of domestic capital markets. Combining a unique cross-country firm-level panel with time-series data on restrictions on international transactions and capital flows, Harrison, Love, and McMillan find that different measures of global flows are associated with a reduction in firm-level financing constraints. First, the authors show that one type of capital inflow-foreign direct investment-is associated with a reduction in financing constraints. Second, they test whether restrictions on international transactions affects the financing constraints of firms. The results suggest that only one type of restriction-those on capital account transactions-negatively affects firms' financing constraints. The authors also show that multinational firms are not financially constrained and do not appear to be sensitive to the level of foreign direct investment. This implies that foreign direct investment eases financing constraints for non-multinational firms. Finally...