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Do capital controls boost resilence to crises?

Goossens, Roman
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Tipo: Dissertação
Português
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66.28%
Os controles de capitais estão novamente em voga em razão dos países emergentes reintroduzirem essas medidas nos últimos anos face a abundante entrada de capital internacional. As autoridades argumentam que tais medidas protegem as economias no caso de uma “parada abrupta” desses fluxos. Será demonstrado que os controles de capitais parecem fazer com que as economias emergentes (EMEs) fiquem mais resistentes diante de uma crise financeira (por exemplo, uma queda na atividade econômica seguida de uma crise é menor quando o controle é maior). No entanto, os controles de capitais parecem deixar as economias emergentes (EMEs) também mais propícias a uma crise. Deste modo, as autoridades devem ser cautelosas na avaliação quanto aos riscos e benefícios relativos a aplicação das medidas dos controles de capitais.; Capital controls are back in vogue and a number of emerging markets reintroduced these measures in recent years in the face of a “flood” of international capital. Policymakers argue that these tools buttress their economies from the risk of a “sudden stop” in capital flows. We show that capital controls seem to make emerging market economies (EMEs) more resistant to financial crises (i.e. that output loss following a crisis is lower when controls are higher). However that they also seem to make EMEs more crisis-prone...

Do capital controls boost EME´s resilience to financial crises?

Goossens, Roman; Mori, Rogério; TELES, Vladimir Kuhl
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Português
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66.31%
Capital controls are again in vogue as a number of emerging markets have reintroduced these measures in recent years in response to a “flood” of international capital. Policymakers use these tools to buttress their economies against the “sudden stop” risk that accompanies international capital flows. Using a panel VAR model, we show that capital controls appear to make emerging market economies (EMEs) more resistant to financial crises by showing that lower post-crisis output loss is correlated with stronger capital controls. However, EMEs that employ capital controls seem to be more crisis-prone. Thus, policymakers should carefully evaluate whether the benefits of capital controls outweigh their costs.

The Real Effects of Capital Controls: Financial Constraints, Exporters, and Firm Investment

Alfaro, Laura; Chari, Anusha; Kanczuk, Fabio
Fonte: Harvard University Publicador: Harvard University
Tipo: Research Paper or Report
Português
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In aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, emerging-market governments have increasingly restricted foreign capital inflows. The data show a statistically significant drop in cumulative abnormal returns for Brazilian firms following capital control announcements. Large firms and the largest exporting firms appear less negatively affected compared to external-finance- dependent firms, and capital controls on equity have a more negative announcement effect than those on debt. Real investment falls following the controls. Overall, the results suggest that capital controls segment international financial markets, increase the cost of capital, reduce the availability of external finance, and lower firm-level investment.

Capital Controls: Mud in the Wheels of Market Discipline

Forbes, Kristin J.
Fonte: MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: 229716 bytes; application/pdf
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Widespread support for capital account liberalization in emerging markets has recently shifted to skepticism and even support for capital controls in certain circumstances. This sea-change in attitudes has been bolstered by the inconclusive macroeconomic evidence on the benefits of capital account liberalization. There are several compelling reasons why it is difficult to measure the aggregate impact of capital controls in very different countries. Instead, a new and more promising approach is more detailed microeconomic studies of how capital controls have generated specific distortions in individual countries. Several recent papers have used this approach and examined very different aspects of capital controls - from their impact on crony capitalism in Malaysia and on financing constraints in Chile, to their impact on US multinational behavior and the efficiency of stock market pricing. Each of these diverse studies finds a consistent result: capital controls have significant economic costs and lead to a misallocation of resources. This new microeconomic evidence suggests that capital controls are not just "sand", but rather "mud in the wheels" of market discipline

International Financial Integration through the Law of One Price : The Role of Liquidity and Capital Controls

Levy Yeyati, Eduardo; Schmukler, Sergio L.; Van Horen, Neeltje
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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56.27%
This paper takes advantage of the fact that some stocks trade both in domestic and international markets to characterize the degree of international financial integration. The paper argues that the cross-market premium (the ratio between the domestic and the international market price of cross-listed stocks) provides a valuable measure of international financial integration and the effectiveness of capital controls. Using autoregressive (AR) models to estimate convergence speeds and non-linear threshold autoregressive (TAR) models to identify non-arbitrage bands, the paper shows that price deviations across markets are rapidly arbitraged away and bands are narrow, particularly so for liquid stocks. The paper also shows that regulations on cross-border capital flows effectively segment domestic markets. As expected, the effects of both types of capital controls are asymmetric but in the opposite direction: controls on outflows induce positive premia, while controls on inflows generate negative premia. Both vary with the intensity of capital controls.

Controls on Capital Inflows and the Transmission of External Shocks

David, Antonio C.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.24%
In this paper we attempt to analyse whether price-based controls on capital inflows are successful in insulating economies against external shocks. We present results from vector autoregressive (VAR) models, which indicate that Chile and Colombia, countries that adopted controls on capital inflows, seem to have been relatively well insulated against certain types of external disturbances. Subsequently, we use the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration in order to isolate the effects of the capital controls on the pass-through of external disturbances to domestic interest rates in those economies. We conclude that there is evidence that the capital controls have allowed for greater policy autonomy.

Crises, Capital Controls, and Financial Integration

Yeyati, Eduardo Levy; Schmukler, Sergio L.; Van Horen, Neeltje
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.28%
This paper analyzes the effects of capital controls and crises on international financial integration, using data on stocks from emerging economies that trade in domestic and international markets. The cross-market premium (the ratio between the domestic and international market price of cross-listed stocks) provides a valuable measure of how capital controls and crises affect integration. The paper shows that, contrary to the common perception that capital controls can be easily evaded, they do affect the cross-market premium. Controls on capital inflows put downward pressure on domestic markets relative to international ones, generating a negative premium. The opposite happens with controls on capital outflows. This signals the inability of market participants to engage in perfect arbitrage, due to the segmentation of domestic markets from international ones induced by capital controls. Crises affect financial integration by generating more volatility in the cross-market premium and putting more downward pressure on domestic prices.

Are Price-Based Capital Account Regulations Effective in Developing Countries?

David, Antonio C.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.28%
The author evaluates the effectiveness of policy measures adopted by Chile and Colombia, aiming to mitigate the deleterious effects of pro-cyclical capital flows. In the case of Chile, according to his Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) analysis, capital controls succeeded in reducing net short-term capital flows but did not affect long-term flows. As far as Colombia is concerned, the regulations were capable of affecting total flows and also long-term ones. In addition, the co-integration models indicate that the regulations did not have a direct effect on the real exchange rate in the Chilean case. Nonetheless, the model used for Colombia did detect a direct impact of the capital controls on the real exchange rate. Therefore, the results do not seem to support the idea that those regulations were easily evaded.

Controls on Capital Inflows and External Shocks

David, Antonio C.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.34%
The author attempts to analyze whether price-based controls on capital inflows are successful in insulating economies against external shocks. He presents results from vector auto regressive (VAR) models that indicate that Chile and Colombia, countries that adopted controls on capital inflows, seem to have been relatively well insulated against external disturbances. Subsequently, he uses the auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration to isolate the effects of the capital controls on the pass-through of external disturbances to domestic interest rates in those economies. The author concludes that there is evidence that the capital controls allowed for greater policy autonomy.

Malaysian Capital Controls

Hood, Ronald D.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.38%
Malaysian authorities implemented controls on international capital flows late in the Asian crisis, when most of the portfolio outflows had already occurred. The exchange rate had depreciated sharply and was fixed at an undervalued level, making further capital flight unlikely. The turnaround in the stock market, the return of positive GDP growth, the building of reserves, and the relaxation of interest rates all coincided with the imposition of controls. But the same changes took place in other crisis countries that did not follow the same control policies. However, the controls provided insurance against the consequences of possible further disturbances. They created a breathing space for making needed reforms, and the authorities made good use of this time, stabilizing the financial system and pushing ahead with regulatory and supervisory reform for the financial sector and capital markets - a prerequisite for fully liberalizing the capital account. Malaysia incurred a cost: an additional 300 basis point spread paid on floating rate debt for a period after the controls were instituted. But the exit strategy has so far not resulted in lasting flight of portfolio capital. Foreign direct investment remains below precrisis levels...

The compatability of capital controls and financial development: a selective survey and empirical evidence

Chinn, Menzie D
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 1081121 bytes; 352 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
Português
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66.28%
This paper examines the relationship between capital controls and financial development, with an emphasis on the empirical aspects of the linkage. Financial development is interpreted broadly as increasing the efficiency of allocating financial resources and monitoring capital projects. In empirical terms, this translates into an increasing volume of bank intermediation and an increasing role for equity capital. Hence, this paper investigates a substantially broader set of proxy measures of financial development than has heretofore been analysed. Moreover, in addition to the IMF’s measures of exchange restrictions, the Quinn (1997) index of financial openness is used as a measure of capital controls. The econometric results suggest that the rate of financial development, as measured by private credit creation and stock market activity, is linked to the existence of capital controls. However, the strength of this relationship varies with the empirical measure used and the level of economic development. Equity market activity appears to be linked to capital controls in both the full sample and in a restricted sample of developing countries. The possibilities for work at a more disaggregate level on banking and equity markets are also discussed. The results pertaining to equity market development are particularly important...

Financial globalisation, exchange rates and capital controls in developing countries

Joshi, Vijay
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 166240 bytes; 360 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
Português
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This paper argues that (i) for many developing countries, the optimal external payments regime would be a combination of an intermediate exchange rate with capital controls and (ii) the policy stance and advice of the IMF should reflect this view. The paper uses India as a case-study to illustrate its argument.; no

The Effect of Capital Controls on Exchange Rate Risk

VERSTEEG, Roald; STRAETMANS, Stefan
Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf; digital
Português
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66.25%
Many countries try to smooth their exchange rate movements by means of capital controls or otherwise. By the use of statistical extreme value analysis, we investigate if capital controls succeed in lowering foreign exchange rate (forex) volatility. We define forex volatility as the risk of extreme depreciations. For a sample of developed and emerging markets we find that capital controls are not effective in reducing this extreme depreciation risk. On the contrary, extreme depreciation risk is almost twice as high compared to an exchange rate regime without capital controls.

Do Capital Flows Respond to Risk and Return?

Calderon, Cesar; Loayza, Norman; Serven, Luis
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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56.19%
This paper explores empirically the role of risk and return in the observed evolution of net foreign asset positions of industrial and developing economies. The paper adopts a dynamic approach in which investors' portfolios adjust gradually to their long-run equilibrium, defined by a standard Tobin-Markowitz framework. The parameters characterizing the long-run equilibrium are estimated using data on foreign assets and liabilities of a large number of industrial and developing countries spanning the period from 1965 to 1997. The paper employs a dynamic panel estimation procedure allowing for unrestricted short-run heterogeneity across countries, using the pooled mean group estimator recently developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999). The empirical results lend considerable support to the model when applied to countries with low capital controls and/or high and upper-middle income. The results for countries with either high capital controls or low per capita income are less supportive of the stock equilibrium model for net foreign asset positions.

The Quality of Bureaucracy and Capital Account Policies

Bai, Chong-En; Wei, Shang-Jin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.28%
The extent of bureaucracy varies extensively across countries, but the quality of bureaucracy within a country changes more slowly than economic policies. The authors propose that the quality of bureaucracy may be an important structural determinant of open economy macroeconomic policies - especially the imposition or removal of capital control. In their model, capital controls are an instrument of financial repression. They entail efficiency loss for the economy but also generate implicit revenue for the government. The results show that bureaucratic corruption translates into the government's reduced ability to collect tax revenues. Even if capital controls and financial repression are otherwise inefficient, the government still has to rely on them to raise revenues to provide public goods. Among the countries for which the authors could get relevant data, they find that the more corrupt ones are indeed more likely to impose capital controls, a pattern consistent with the model's prediction. To deal with possible reverse causality...

Short and Long-Run Integration : Do Capital Controls Matter?

Kaminsky, Graciela; Schmukler, Sergio
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.4%
The authors study whether capital controls affect the link between domestic and foreign stock market prices and interest rates. To examine the characteristics of international market integration and the effects of capital controls in the short and long run, they apply band-pass filter techniques to data from six emerging economics during the 1990s. They find that markets seem to be linked more at longer horizons. Equity prices seem to be more connected internationally than interest rates. They also find little evidence that controls effectively segment domestic markets from foreign markets. And when they do, the effects seem to be short-lived. Moreover, the effects of controls on outflows do not seem to differ from those of controls on inflows. For example, controls on outflows in Venezuela during the 1994 crisis, and unremunerated reserve requirements in Chile and Colombia during a capital-inflow episode, seem to have shielded domestic markets at the most at very high frequencies. The degree of financial sophistication does not seem to affect the authors' conclusion on the insulation provided by capital controls. True...

One Cost of the Chilean Capital Controls: Increased Financial Constraints for Smaller Traded Firms

FORBES, KRISTIN J.
Fonte: MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: 1592730 bytes; application/pdf
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There is growing support for taxes on short-term capital inflows in emerging markets, such as the encaje adopted by Chile from 1991-98. Previous empirical assessments of the encaje conclude that it may have generated some small economic benefits, such as shifting the composition of capital inflows to a longer maturity, but no significant economic costs. Managers of small and medium-sized companies in Chile, however, claim that the encaje made it substantially more difficult to obtain financing for productive investment. This paper assesses whether the Chilean capital controls increased financial constraints for different-sized, publicly traded firms. It uses two different testing methodologies: a Tobin's-q and Euler-equation framework. Results indicate that during the encaje, smaller traded firms in Chile experienced significant financial constraints and these constraints decreased as firm size increased. Both before and after the encaje...

Rethinking the economics of capital mobility and capital controls

Palley,Thomas I.
Fonte: Editora 34 Publicador: Editora 34
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/09/2009 Português
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This paper reexamines the issue of international financial capital mobility, which is today's economic orthodoxy. Discussion is often framed in terms of the impossible trinity. That framing distorts discussion by representing capital mobility as having equal significance with sovereign monetary policy and control over exchange rates. It also distorts discussion by ignoring possibilities for coordinated monetary policy and exchange rates, and for managed capital flows. The case for capital mobility rests on neo-classical economic efficiency arguments and neo-liberal political arguments. The case against capital mobility is based on Keynesian macroeconomic inefficiency arguments, neo-Walrasian market failure arguments, and neo-Marxian arguments regarding distortion of the social structure of accumulation. Close examination shows the case for capital mobility to be extremely flimsy, pointing to the ideological dimension behind today's policy orthodoxy.

Eficácia dos controles de capitais no Brasil: uma abordagem teórica e empírica alternativa

Silva, Guilherme Jonas Costa da; Resende, Marco Flávio da Cunha
Fonte: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade Publicador: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 01/09/2010 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
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The aim of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of capital controls in Brazil, at the end of the 1990s. To do this, we test some hypotheses about capital controls in Brazil. The first hypothesis is that capital controls in Brazil were endogenous during the 1990s. The second one is that exogenous capital controls were more effective than the endogenous one. The third hypothesis is that capital controls by prices have the same effectiveness as quantitative controls when an external crisis is happening. To test these hypotheses the Autoregressive Vector method was used. This method is used in a pioneer way to test hypotheses about capital controls. The results highlight that capital controls in Brazil were endogenous and partially successful to obstruct the capital flight in 1999, although the exogenous controls seem to be more effective than the endogenous one. Another conclusion of the paper is that in periods of large financial instability only the quantitative capital controls are capable to obstruct all the capital flight.; Este artigo tem por objetivo aprofundar a discussão sobre a eficácia dos controles de capitais no Brasil, no final da década de 1990. Avalia-se a hipótese de que os controles de capitais no Brasil foram endógenos. Em seguida...

Does Capital Control Policy Affect Real Exchange Rate Volatility? A Novel Approach Using Propensity Score Matching

Gross, Adam
Fonte: Universidade Duke Publicador: Universidade Duke
Formato: 861273 bytes; application/pdf
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Propensity score matching is a statistical technique recently introduced in the field of economics, which researchers use to assess the treatment effect of policy initiatives. In this study I use propensity score matching to analyze the treatment effect of capital control policy on real exchange rate volatility. I find the treatment effect of adopting relatively liberal capital controls is a decrease in real exchange rate volatility. This is the first empirical study to provide insight into the causal relationship between capital controls and real exchange rates, which may be crucial to macroeconomic policy decisions for emerging economies such as China.; Winner of the 2008 Robert F. Durden Prize