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External Debt, Capital Flight and Political Risk

Tabellini, Guido; Alesina, Alberto
Fonte: Elsevier Publicador: Elsevier
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.29%
This paper explains the simultaneous occurrence of large external debts, private capital outflows and low domestic capital formation. We consider a general equilibrium model in which two government types with conflicting distributional goals randomly alternate in office. Uncertainty over the fiscal policies of future governments generates capital flight and small domestic investment, and induces the government to overaccumulate external debt. The model also predicts that left-wing governments are more inclined to restrict capital outflows than right-wing governments. Finally, we examine how political uncertainty affects the risk premium and how debt repudiation may occur after a regime change.; Economics

Gross Capital Flows : Dynamics and Crises

Broner, Fernando; Didier, Tatiana; Erce, Aitor; Schmukler, Sergio L.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.24%
This paper analyzes the joint behavior of international capital flows by foreign and domestic agents -- gross capital flows -- over the business cycle and during financial crises. The authors show that gross capital flows are very large and volatile, especially relative to net capital flows. When foreigners invest in a country, domestic agents tend to invest abroad, and vice versa. Gross capital flows are also pro-cyclical, with foreigners investing more in the country and domestic agents investing more abroad during expansions. During crises, especially during severe ones, there is retrenchment, that is, a reduction in both capital inflows by foreigners and capital outflows by domestic agents. This evidence sheds light on the nature of shocks driving capital flows and helps discriminate among existing theories. The findings seem consistent with shocks that affect foreign and domestic agents asymmetrically, such as sovereign risk and asymmetric information.

The Impact of EU Accession on Human Capital : Formation - Can Migration Fuel a Brain Gain?

Farchy, Emily
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.18%
Can a brain drain be good for development? Many studies have established the theoretical possibility of such a brain gain. Yet it is only recently that the relaxation of data constraints has allowed for sound empirical assessments. In utilizing the dramatic policy change that accompanied European Union accession as a natural experiment, this paper is able to assuage fears of reverse causality between migration and human capital formation. The results highlight a significant impact of European Union accession on human capital formation indicating that the prospect of migration can indeed fuel skill formation even in the context of middle-income economies. And, if accompanied by policies to promote return migration, as well as a functioning credit market to enable private investment, international labor mobility could represent a powerful tool for growth.

Potential Gains from Capital Flight Repatriation for Sub-Saharan African Countries

Fofack, Hippolyte; Ndikumana, Leonce
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.68%
Despite the recent increase in capital flows to Sub-Saharan Africa, the region remains largely marginalized in financial globalization and chronically dependent on official development aid. And with the potential decline in the level of official development assistance in a context of global financial crisis, the need to increase domestic resources mobilization as well as non-debt generating external resources is critical now more than ever before. However, the debate on resource mobilization has overlooked an important untapped source of funds consisting of the massive stocks of private wealth stashed in Western financial centers, a substantial part of which left the region in the form of capital flight. This paper argues that the repatriation of flight capital should take a more prominent place in this debate from a moral standpoint and for clear economic reasons. On the moral side, the argument is that a large proportion of the capital flight legitimately belongs to the Africans and therefore must be restituted to the legitimate claimants. The economic argument is that repatriation of flight capital will propel the sub-continent on a higher sustainable growth path while preserving its financial stability and without mortgaging the welfare of its future generations through external borrowing. The analysis in the paper demonstrates quantitatively that the gains from repatriation are large and dominate the expected benefits from other sources such as debt relief. It is estimated that if only a quarter of the stock of capital flight was repatriated to Sub-Saharan Africa...

Causality between External Debt and Capital Flight in Sub-Saharan Africa

Fofack, Hippolyte
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.62%
Over the past few decades, the foreign liabilities of the majority of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have grown dramatically, propelling most nations into the status of Highly Indebted Poor Countries, when these liabilities reached unsustainable levels in the 1990s. At the same time, increases in capital flight from the region followed a parallel trend, leading scholars to draw on "revolving door" models to explain the apparent positive covariation of external debt and capital flight in the region. This paper investigates the causality between external debt and capital flight in a cross-section of Sub-Saharan African countries using co-integration and error-correction models. Although dual causality, which is consistent with the revolving door hypothesis, cannot be rejected for the majority of countries, empirical evidence highlights the lead of external debt over capital flight. The significance of error-correction terms points to a long-run co-integrating relationship between external debt and capital flight in a large number of countries.

Capital Flight Repatriation : Investigation of Its Potential Gains for Sub-Saharan African Countries

Fofack, Hippolyte; Ndikumana, Leonce
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.6%
Despite the substantial recent increase in capital flows to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the sub-continent remains largely marginalized in financial globalization and chronically dependent on official development aid. The current debate on resource mobilization for development financing in Africa has overlooked the problem of capital flight, which constitutes an important untapped source of funds. This paper argues that repatriation of flight capital deserves more attention on economic as well as moral grounds. On the moral side, the argument is that a large proportion of the capital flight legitimately belongs to the African people and therefore must be restituted to the legitimate claimants. The economic argument is that repatriation of flight capital will contribute to propelling the sub-continent on a higher sustainable growth path while preserving its financial stability and independence and without mortgaging the welfare of its future generations through external borrowing. The anticipated gains from capital repatriation are large. In particular, this paper estimates that if only a quarter of the stock of capital flight was repatriated to SSA, the sub-continent would go from trailing to leading other developing regions in terms of domestic investment. The paper proposes some strategies for inducing capital flight repatriation...

Capital Flight and War

Davies, Victor A.B.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.63%
The author provides empirical evidence on the effects of inflation on post-war capital flight flows. He tests the hypothesis that inflation has a positive additional impact on capital flight flows after war. He uses a new panel dataset of 77 developing countries, of which 35 experienced at least one episode of war between 1971 and 2000. The author uses a range of estimation methods and four capital flight measures-Cline, World Bank Residual, Morgan Guarantee, and Dooley. The results consistently support the research hypothesis: Post-war inflation increases annual capital flight flows by about 0.005 to 0.01 percentage points of GDP. This effect is substantial in total at high inflation rates. The implication is that low inflation helps to curb capital flight in post-conflict economies.

Malaysian Capital Controls

Hood, Ronald D.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.54%
Malaysian authorities implemented controls on international capital flows late in the Asian crisis, when most of the portfolio outflows had already occurred. The exchange rate had depreciated sharply and was fixed at an undervalued level, making further capital flight unlikely. The turnaround in the stock market, the return of positive GDP growth, the building of reserves, and the relaxation of interest rates all coincided with the imposition of controls. But the same changes took place in other crisis countries that did not follow the same control policies. However, the controls provided insurance against the consequences of possible further disturbances. They created a breathing space for making needed reforms, and the authorities made good use of this time, stabilizing the financial system and pushing ahead with regulatory and supervisory reform for the financial sector and capital markets - a prerequisite for fully liberalizing the capital account. Malaysia incurred a cost: an additional 300 basis point spread paid on floating rate debt for a period after the controls were instituted. But the exit strategy has so far not resulted in lasting flight of portfolio capital. Foreign direct investment remains below precrisis levels...

Do Private Inspection Programs Affect Trade Facilitation?

Velea, Irina; Cadot, Olivier; Wilson, John S.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.14%
Private inspection of international shipments has been used over the last half-century for a variety of purposes. These include prevention of capital flight and improvement of import duty collection, among others. The existing literature has failed to find much impact of these inspection programs on collected tariff revenue or corruption at the border. This paper explores the "facilitation" effect of private inspection programs on trade. The results indicate that private inspection has a positive and significant trade-facilitation effect. These programs raise import volumes for countries using them by approximately 2 to 10 percent. The findings here also suggest that the benefit of private inspection of imports may be associated with reforms and best practices applied by private inspection firms. Private firms' inspection of cargo may promote faster clearance times and process reliability, rather than improved tax collection.

Indonesia Development Policy Review : The Imperative for Reform

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Pre-2003 Economic or Sector Report; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.29%
Indonesia's recovery was already slowing several months before the events of September 11. Political instability had raised social tensions and slowed reforms--fueling capital flight, alarming investors, and delaying official external finance for development. Progress on bank restructuring had slowed and the debt of financially strapped corporations remained largely unresolved. Corruption flourished, unchecked by a justice system that itself was corroded. Regional tensions increased even as the country embarked upon an ambitious decentralization program. And, if real wages are any indication, progress on poverty reduction--encouraging in 1999 and 2000-ground to a halt. Although markets initially welcomed President Megawati Soekarnoputri into office, the new administration has made little progress on structural and governnance reforms in her first one hundred days in office, thus renewing nervousness in markets and worrying external donors and creditors. The events of September 11 have emphatically underscored the urgency of Indonesia's reform priorities. but donors need to be realistic about what is feasible...

Capital Flight and Violent Conflict-A Review of the Literature

Davies, Victor A.B.
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.59%
Reviews the literature on what happens to capital flight before, during, and after violent conflict and its implications for post-conflict economic recovery since by the end of the conflict a considerable amount of capital could have accumulated abroad. Capital flight refers to outflows of private capital from developing countries and is viewed as 'hot money' fleeing political and financial crisis, heavier taxes, capital controls, currency devaluation, or hyperinflation. Issues concern how to measure capital flight with multiple measures proposed depending on whether the estimator deems it a flow or stock. Capital flight is often studied as a portfolio-choice decision relative to a risk-adjusted expected return, which violent conflict directly affects by increasing the riskiness of the domestic environment, reducing risk-adjusted expected return, and thereby inducing capital flight. Indirectly, violent conflict affects the portfolio-choice framework by its impact on inflation and public debt. For countries facing much higher wartime inflation rates, much bigger reductions in capital flight could be realized through larger cuts in inflation.

Flight Capital as a Portfolio Choice

Collier, Paul; Hoeffler, Anke; Pattillo, Catherine
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Journal Article; Publications & Research :: Journal Article; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.51%
This article sets flight capital in the context of portfolio choice, focusing on the proportion of private wealth that is held abroad. There are large regional differences in this proportion, ranging from 5 percent in South Asia to 40 percent in Africa. The authors explain cross-country differences in portfolio choice using variables that proxy differences in the risk-adjusted rate of return on capital. They apply the results to three policy issues: how the East Asian crisis affected domestic capital outflows; the effect of the International Monetary Fund-World Bank debt relief initiative for heavily indebted poor countries on capital repatriation; and why so much of Africa's private wealth is held outside the continent.

The Quality of Bureaucracy and Capital Account Policies

Bai, Chong-En; Wei, Shang-Jin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.18%
The extent of bureaucracy varies extensively across countries, but the quality of bureaucracy within a country changes more slowly than economic policies. The authors propose that the quality of bureaucracy may be an important structural determinant of open economy macroeconomic policies - especially the imposition or removal of capital control. In their model, capital controls are an instrument of financial repression. They entail efficiency loss for the economy but also generate implicit revenue for the government. The results show that bureaucratic corruption translates into the government's reduced ability to collect tax revenues. Even if capital controls and financial repression are otherwise inefficient, the government still has to rely on them to raise revenues to provide public goods. Among the countries for which the authors could get relevant data, they find that the more corrupt ones are indeed more likely to impose capital controls, a pattern consistent with the model's prediction. To deal with possible reverse causality...

Is Investment in Africa Too Low or Too High? Macro and Micro Evidence

Devarajan, Shantayanan; Easterley, William R.; Pack, Howard
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.4%
The authors investigate the relationship between weak growth performance and low investment rates in Africa. The cross-country evidence suggests no direct relationship. The positive and significant coefficient on private investment appears to be driven by Botswana's presence in the sample. Allowing for the endogeneity of private investment, controlling for policy, and positing a nonlinear relationship make no difference to the conclusion. Higher investment in Africa would not by itself produce faster GDP growth. Africa's low investment and growth rates seem to be symptoms of underlying factors. To investigate those factors and to correct for some of the problems with cross-country analysis, the authors undertook a case study of manufacturing investment in Tanzania. They tried to identify why output per worker declined while capital per worker increased. Some of the usual suspects--such as shifts from high- to low-productivity subsectors, the presence of state-owned enterprises, or poor polices--did not play a significant role in this decline. Instead...

Pension Funds and Capital Markets : Investment Regulation, Financial Innovation, and Governance

Vittas, Dimitri
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Viewpoint; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.17%
This Note briefly examines the dynamic interaction that can develop between pension funds and capital markets. Pension funds are not only a source of long-term savings to support the development of bond and equity markets. They can also be a positive force for innovation, for corporate governance, and for privatization. In turn, capital markets offer pension funds the opportunity for better portfolio returns and risk management. This interaction is a long, self-reinforcing process that builds on sound macroeconomic policies, effective regulatory reforms, as well as robust accounting, legal, and information infrastructure. The key message for policymakers is that pension reform should be part of a broad reform program. It need not be delayed until capital markets are well established. But, equally important, large quantities of state assets should not be transferred to newly formed private pension funds without first taking steps to develop robust and well-regulated capital markets. Chile's gradual approach to investment deregulation is a good model for developing countries introducing mandatory but decentralized pension systems.

Insurance and Liquidity : Panel Evidence

Shankar, Rashmi
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.29%
The author presents evidence that balance sheet effects are critical determinants of both the likelihood of a crisis and of income losses following a crisis. She tests the validity of "insurance" and "liquidity" models of currency crisis. Both models predict that the occurrence of a balance of payments crisis is conditional on the health of the nation's accounts in relation to the rest of the world. Problems in the balance sheet either cause a financial crisis that develops into a run on the central bank, or generate a run on the central bank once contingent liabilities exceed reserves and the yield differential moves against domestic assets. Estimations of crisis likelihoods based on several specifications of single and simultaneous equation probit models confirm that output losses following the crisis are persistent and conditional on the balance sheet indicator, that is, the ratio of the stock of gross external liabilities to assets. Measures of contingent liabilities, capital flight, and financial depth perform well as crisis predictors, and the marginal effects on the probability of a crisis are of the expected sign. The panel data set covers the time period 1973 through 2003 for 90 countries.

Mobilidade de capitais e vulnerabilidade externa do Brasil : a nova qualidade da dependência financeira (1990:2010); Capital mobility and external vulnerability : a new quality of financial dependence (1990:2010)

Fernando D'Angelo Machado
Fonte: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp Publicador: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 20/12/2011 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.17%
O objetivo da dissertação é avaliar a mudança quantitativa e qualitativa no grau de vulnerabilidade externa do balanço de pagamentos do Brasil a crises de fuga de capital de 1990 a 2010, tendo em vista a maior facilidade de movimentação e transferência dos estoques de riqueza do país. Tal mudança está associada à forma de integração da economia ao mercado externo e às reformas neoliberais, que acarretaram em uma maior integração do Brasil no mercado financeiro internacional e nos fluxos de investimento direto. A maior mobilidade dos capitais, produtivos e financeiros, alterou o perfil e o comportamento do capital internacional, o que está refletido na maior volubilidade do passivo externo e, em alguma medida, do estoque interno de riqueza. Levando em consideração as profundas mudanças no capitalismo contemporâneo, o estudo passa pelas transformações estruturais da economia e pelas mudanças que alteraram seu grau de abertura financeira e, assim, elevaram o potencial de saída dos estoques de riqueza do país, com sérias consequências sobre a dependência financeira do país.; This dissertation aims to examine the quantitative and qualitative changes in the Brazilian balance of payments? vulnerability degree to capital flight crisis...

Mergers and capital flight in unionised oligopolies : Is there scope for a 'national champion' policy?

Lommerud, Kjell Erik; Meland, Frode; Straume, Odd Rune
Fonte: Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas Publicador: Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Publicado em /03/2008 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.35%
Many policy makers seem to prefer domestic alternatives to cross-broder mergers. Can such sentiments make sense? We contruct a model where cross-border mergers drive down union-set wages, where domestic mergers have larger non-labour cost synergies than international ones, and where policy evaluators care more about workers than capital owners. Apparently, the stage is set for national champion policies to be sensible. However, we also introduce the possibility of capital flight in the sense that a domestic firm can physically move its production out of the country. Restrictive cross-border merger policies can then seriously backfire, since they do not necessarily bring about a domestic merger - but capital flight instead.; NIPE – Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas – is supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology through the Programa Operacional Ciência e Inovação 2010 (POCI 2010) of the III Quadro Comunitário de Apoio (QCA III), which is financed by FEDER and Portuguese funds.

Mergers and capital flight in unionised oligopolies : is there scope for a 'national champion' policy?

Lommerud, Kjell Erik; Meland, Frode; Straume, Odd Rune
Fonte: Elsevier Publicador: Elsevier
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em /04/2011 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.35%
Many policy makers seem to prefer domestic alternatives to cross-border mergers.Weconstruct a model where cross-border mergers drive down union-set wages, domestic mergers have nonlabour cost synergies and policy evaluators care more about workers than capital owners. Apparently, the stage is set for “national champion” policies to be sensible. However, we also introduce the possibility of capital flight by allowing a domestic firm to move production abroad. Restrictive cross-border merger policies can then seriously backfire, since they do not necessarily bring about a domestic merger — but capital flight instead.; Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT)

Capital flight from Papua New Guinea

Curtin, Timothy
Fonte: Asia Pacific Press Publicador: Asia Pacific Press
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.47%
This paper provides an updated assessment of capital flight from Papua New Guinea. It reviews methods of measuring capital flight and suggests that balance of payments data on capital flows give a more revealing picture than the residuals method used by most authors. A case study of the Lihir gold mining project, using recent data on equity flows, suggests that most apparent capital flight from Papua New Guinea is the result of the continuous depreciation of the kina since 1994.