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Global Development Finance 2012 : External Debt of Developing Countries

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
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The data and analysis presented in this edition of global development finance are based on actual flows and debt related transactions for 2010 reported to the World Bank Debtor Reporting System (DRS) by 129 developing countries. The reports confirm that in 2010 international capital flows to developing countries surpassed preliminary estimates and returned to their pre-crisis level of $1.1 trillion, an increase of 68 percent over the comparable figure for 2009. Private capital flows surged in 2010 driven by a massive jump in short-term debt, a strong rebound in bonds and more moderate rise in equity flows. Debt related inflows jumped almost 200 percent compared to a 25 percent increase in net equity flows. The rebound in capital flows was concentrated in a small group of 10 middle income countries where net capital inflows rose by an average of nearly 80 percent in 2010, almost double the rate of increase (44 percent) recorded by other developing countries. These 10 countries accounted for 73 percent of developing countries gross national income (GNI)...

Gross Capital Flows : Dynamics and Crises

Broner, Fernando; Didier, Tatiana; Erce, Aitor; Schmukler, Sergio L.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
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This paper analyzes the joint behavior of international capital flows by foreign and domestic agents -- gross capital flows -- over the business cycle and during financial crises. The authors show that gross capital flows are very large and volatile, especially relative to net capital flows. When foreigners invest in a country, domestic agents tend to invest abroad, and vice versa. Gross capital flows are also pro-cyclical, with foreigners investing more in the country and domestic agents investing more abroad during expansions. During crises, especially during severe ones, there is retrenchment, that is, a reduction in both capital inflows by foreigners and capital outflows by domestic agents. This evidence sheds light on the nature of shocks driving capital flows and helps discriminate among existing theories. The findings seem consistent with shocks that affect foreign and domestic agents asymmetrically, such as sovereign risk and asymmetric information.

Macroprudential Regulation of Credit Booms and Busts : The Case of Croatia

Kraft, Evan; Galac, Tomislav
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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Croatia employed macroprudential measures to manage credit growth and capital inflows during the boom years of the 2000s, including reserve requirements on loan growth, a marginal reserve requirement on increases in foreign liabilities, foreign exchange liquidity minima, and elevated capital adequacy ratios. Although quantitative analysis is complicated by substantial overlaps among measures, the econometric results in this paper suggest that the measures were most effective in requiring banks to hold high liquidity and capital buffers, and less effective in slowing credit growth and capital inflows. Larger buffers seem to have helped Croatian banks weather the financial crisis, making the adjustments to capital and liquidity during the crisis smaller.

Potential Gains from Capital Flight Repatriation for Sub-Saharan African Countries

Fofack, Hippolyte; Ndikumana, Leonce
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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46.75%
Despite the recent increase in capital flows to Sub-Saharan Africa, the region remains largely marginalized in financial globalization and chronically dependent on official development aid. And with the potential decline in the level of official development assistance in a context of global financial crisis, the need to increase domestic resources mobilization as well as non-debt generating external resources is critical now more than ever before. However, the debate on resource mobilization has overlooked an important untapped source of funds consisting of the massive stocks of private wealth stashed in Western financial centers, a substantial part of which left the region in the form of capital flight. This paper argues that the repatriation of flight capital should take a more prominent place in this debate from a moral standpoint and for clear economic reasons. On the moral side, the argument is that a large proportion of the capital flight legitimately belongs to the Africans and therefore must be restituted to the legitimate claimants. The economic argument is that repatriation of flight capital will propel the sub-continent on a higher sustainable growth path while preserving its financial stability and without mortgaging the welfare of its future generations through external borrowing. The analysis in the paper demonstrates quantitatively that the gains from repatriation are large and dominate the expected benefits from other sources such as debt relief. It is estimated that if only a quarter of the stock of capital flight was repatriated to Sub-Saharan Africa...

Controls on Capital Inflows and the Transmission of External Shocks

David, Antonio C.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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In this paper we attempt to analyse whether price-based controls on capital inflows are successful in insulating economies against external shocks. We present results from vector autoregressive (VAR) models, which indicate that Chile and Colombia, countries that adopted controls on capital inflows, seem to have been relatively well insulated against certain types of external disturbances. Subsequently, we use the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration in order to isolate the effects of the capital controls on the pass-through of external disturbances to domestic interest rates in those economies. We conclude that there is evidence that the capital controls have allowed for greater policy autonomy.

Controls on Capital Inflows and External Shocks

David, Antonio C.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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The author attempts to analyze whether price-based controls on capital inflows are successful in insulating economies against external shocks. He presents results from vector auto regressive (VAR) models that indicate that Chile and Colombia, countries that adopted controls on capital inflows, seem to have been relatively well insulated against external disturbances. Subsequently, he uses the auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration to isolate the effects of the capital controls on the pass-through of external disturbances to domestic interest rates in those economies. The author concludes that there is evidence that the capital controls allowed for greater policy autonomy.

Dealing with the Challenges of Capital Inflows in the Context of Macrofinancial Links

Ghosh, Swati R
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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In the wake of the recent global financial crisis, emerging markets have seen a significantly higher degree of volatility in their capital flows. At the onset, all countries experienced sudden stops and increases in risk premia. Following this initial period of uncertainty, financial markets began to differentiate between the countries, and while most developing regions have regained access to both, debt and equity issuance, the pace of recovery of capital inflows has been particularly remarkable for some countries. Given the likelihood that the prevailing low interest rates in the developed world will remain for some time to come, and given the prospects of faster growth in emerging markets, it is likely that some emerging markets will experience significant surges in capital flows in the near future. This note examines potential policy responses to maintain macroeconomic and financial sector stability in the face of increased capital inflows.

Gross Inflows Gone Wild : Gross Capital Inflows, Credit Booms and Crises

Calderon, Cesar; Kubota, Megumi
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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66.99%
The main goal of the paper is to examine whether surges in private capital inflows lead to credit booms. The authors built a quarterly database on gross capital inflows, credit to the private sector, and other macro-financial indicators for a sample of 71 countries from 1975q1 to 2010q4. Identifying credit booms is not trivial: they use different criteria implemented in the literature. The estimates suggest that: (i) Surges in gross private capital inflows are overall good predictors of credit booms. (ii) The likelihood of credit booms is higher if the surges in foreign flows are driven by private other investment inflows and, to a lesser extent, portfolio investment inflows. (iii) Surges in gross inflows are also good predictors of credit booms that end up in a financial crisis -- "bad" credit booms. This finding holds even after controlling for the appreciation of the local currency and the build-up of leverage. (iv) Bad credit booms are more likely to occur when surges are driven by other investment inflows. At best...

The Effect of Capital Flows Composition on Output Volatility

Federico, Pablo; Vegh, Carlos A.; Vuletin, Guillermo
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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A large literature has argued that different types of capital flows have different consequences for macroeconomic stability. By distinguishing between foreign direct investment and portfolio and other investments, this paper studies the effects of the composition of capital inflows on output volatility. The paper develops a simple empirical model which, under certain conditions that hold in the data, yields three key testable implications. First, output volatility should depend positively on the volatilities of both foreign direct investment and portfolio and other inflows. Second, output volatility should be an increasing function of the correlation between both kinds of inflows. Third, output volatility should be a decreasing function of the share of foreign direct investment in total capital inflows, for low values of that share. The data provide strong support for all three implications, even after controlling for other factors that may influence output volatility, and after dealing with potential endogeneity problems. These findings call attention to the importance of taking into account the synchronization and composition of capital flows for output stabilization purposes...

Ride the Wild Surf : An Investigation of the Drivers of Surges in Capital Inflows

Calderón, César; Kubota, Megumi
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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66.99%
Over the past 15 years, gross inflows to industrial and developing countries have enjoyed a wild ride. After reaching record highs in the run-up to the global financial crisis, they collapsed dramatically in 2008-09. As signs of global recovery reappeared, capital inflows resumed although at different speeds. The recovery in flows was faster and sharper in developing countries. This paper aims at understanding the (domestic and external) drivers of these surges in gross inflows using quarterly data for 67 countries from 1975 to 2010. It finds that domestic and external factors have significant explanatory power in driving surges of inflows. This finding holds for the sample of industrial countries whereas domestic factors play a significantly larger role in explaining surges to developing countries. Zooming into the findings shows that: (a) financial booms tend to attract massive capital inflows, (b) surges to either industrial or developing countries are driven by regional contagion, and (c) strong growth and natural resource abundance are keys to attract inflows of foreign capital into developing countries.

Unconventional Monetary Policy Normalization in High-Income Countries : Implications for Emerging Market Capital Flows and Crisis Risks

Burns, Andrew; Kida, Mizuho; Lim, Jamus Jerome; Mohapatra, Sanket; Stocker, Marc
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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As the recovery in high-income countries firms amid a gradual withdrawal of extraordinary monetary stimulus, developing countries can expect stronger demand for their exports as global trade regains momentum, but also rising interest rates and potentially weaker capital inflows. This paper assesses the implications of a normalization of policy and activity in high-income countries for financial flows and crisis risks in developing countries. In the most likely scenario, a relatively orderly process of normalization would imply a slowdown in capital inflows amounting to 0.6 percent of developing-country GDP between 2013 and 2016, driven in particular by weaker portfolio investments. However, the risk of more abrupt adjustments remains significant, especially if increased market volatility accompanies the unwinding of unprecedented central bank interventions. According to simulations, abrupt changes in market expectations, resulting in global bond yields increasing by 100 to 200 basis points within a couple of quarters...

Do Capital Inflows Boost Growth in Developing Countries?

Calderon, Cesar; Nguyen, Ha
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Português
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This paper examines whether domestic output growth helps attract capital inflows and, in turn, capital inflows help boost output growth in a set of 38 Sub-Saharan African countries. Using a two-step approach to address reverse causality and omitted variable issues, the paper finds that output growth in countries in Sub-Saharan Africa does not attract capital inflows. However, aid and foreign direct investment inflows enhance growth, while sovereign debt inflows do not. A 1 percent increase in the level of real aid inflows raises growth of real output per capita by 0.022 percentage point. For foreign direct investment inflows, the figure is 0.002 percentage point.

Capital inflows and the real exchange rate: a comparative study of Asia and Latin America

Athukorala, Prema-Chandra; Rajapatirana, Sarath
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 166873 bytes; 360 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
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The nexus of real exchange rate (RER) and capital inflows is examined through a comparative analysis of the experiences of emerging market economies in Asian and Latin America during the period 1985-2000. It is found that the degree of appreciation in RER associated with capital inflow is uniformly much higher in Latin American countries compared to their Asian counterparts, despite the fact that the latter experienced far greater foreign capital inflows relative to the size of the economy. The econometric evidence suggests that both the composition of capital flows and differences in the degree of response of RER to capital flows matter in explaining these contrasting experiences. While RER appreciation is a phenomenon predominantly associated with other (non-FDI) forms of capital inflows (OCFW), a given level of OCFW brings about a far greater degree of appreciation of the real exchange rate in Latin America where the importance of these flows in total capital inflow is also far greater. On the policy front, Asian countries seem to have used fiscal contraction and nominal exchange rate adjustment more effectively to cushion the RER against the appreciation pressure of capital inflows. There is, however, no evidence to suggest that sterilized intervention can generate a lasting impact on the real exchange rate.; no

World Bank South Asia Economic Update 2010 : Moving Up, Looking East

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
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46.73%
South Asia's rebound since March 2009 has been strong and is comparable to that in East Asia. South Asia is poised to grow by about 7 percent in 2010 and nearly 8 percent in 2011, thanks to the strong recovery in India, good performances in Bangladesh, post-conflict bounce in Sri Lanka, recovery in Pakistan, and turnarounds in other countries, including Afghanistan, Maldives, and Nepal. The region's prospective growth is close to pre-crisis peak levels and faster than the high rates of the early part of the decade (6.5 percent annually from 2000 to 2007). The recovery is being led by rising domestic confidence and is balanced in terms of domestic versus external demand, consumption versus investment, and private demand versus reliance on stimulus. Government policy, external support, resumption of private spending, and global recovery are driving the rebound. Strong government fiscal and monetary stimulus packages and, in some cases, external assistance are helping stimulate recovery. Improved optimism is helping the recovery in private spending in India...

Aid Inflows and the Real Effective Exchange Rate in Tanzania

Li, Ying; Rowe, Francis
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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Tanzania is well placed to receive a significant increase in aid inflows in coming years. Despite the potential for the additional aid inflows to raise income levels in the country, increasing them may bring about structural changes in the economy that may be unwelcome. One such change is an appreciation of the real exchange rate that leads to a contraction of traditional export sectors and a loss of export competitiveness. This paper employs a reduced-form equilibrium real exchange rate approach to explain movements in Tanzania's real effective exchange in recent decades. Particular attention is paid to the relationship between aid inflows and the real effective exchange rate. The authors find that the long-run behavior of the real effective exchange rate is influenced by terms of trade movements, the government's trade liberalization efforts, and aid inflows. Positive terms-of-trade movements are associated with an appreciation, periods of improving trade liberalization are associated with a depreciation...

Corruption, Composition of Capital Flows, and Currency Crises

Wei, Shang-Jin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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Crony capitalism and international creditors' self-fulfilling expectations are often suggested as rival explanations for currency crises. A possible link between the two has not been explored. The author shows one channel through which crony capitalism can increase the chance of a currency/financial crisis by altering the composition of capital inflows. Using data on bilateral foreign direct investment and bilateral bank loans, the author finds clear evidence that in corrupt countries the composition of capital inflows is relatively light in foreign direct investment. Earlier studies indicated that a country with a capital inflow structure is more likely to run into a currency crisis down the road (partly through international creditors' self-fulfilling expectations). Therefore, crony capitalism, through its effect on the composition of a country's capital inflows, makes the country more vulnerable to currency crises brought about by self-fulfilling expectations. Corruption may also weaken domestic financial supervision...

Pakistan Development Update, October 2014

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling
Português
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46.81%
For 2013 progress in Pakistan was significant and supported by a solid economic reform program of the Government of Pakistan. An IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and two World Bank Development Policy Credits with a focus to restructure the energy sector, foster private and financial sector developments and improve social protection and revenue mobilization reinforced the reform program. The risk of a balance of payment crisis was minimized with a significant strengthening of the international reserves position. This mainly resulted from strong remittances and significant foreign capital inflows, which also brought stability in the foreign exchange market. A strong fiscal consolidation was achieved; the fiscal deficit was contained at around 5.5 percent of GDP - due to improved tax collection, high non-tax revenues, and restricted (current and development) expenditures. Price stabilization followed with average inflation remaining in single digits. This environment favored growth recovery, with the GDP growth rate above 4 percent for the first time in seven years - driven by dynamic manufacturing and service sectors supported by better energy availability and improved investors' expectations. As a result...

Using Lebanon's Large Capital Inflows to Foster Sustainable Long-Term Growth

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Public Sector Study
Português
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This report aims to provide a diagnostic of the Lebanese economy and policy advice to a broad audience. To that effect, an analysis of the dynamics of foreign inflows and of the economy over the past decades is undertaken. Specifically, this report attempts to provide a vision for where would Lebanon be in 15 to 20 years if needed structural reforms are implemented. This report provides a quantification of the growth impact of these reforms, taken individually or combined. By doing so, it gives both an indication on the opportunity costs of not reforming and provides a vision on what the development stage could be in Lebanon in 15 to 20 years if reforms are implemented. The report includes a set of econometric simulations and analysis aiming: 1) to establish the relation between the dynamic of foreign financial inflows and deposits over a period of 20 years, 2) to establish the relation between deposits as proxy for foreign financial inflows from one side; and oil price as proxy for regional wealth, macroeconomic and security stability...

Managing capital inflows in Chile

Ffrench-Davis Muñoz, Ricardo; Agosin Trumper, Manuel Rodolfo
Fonte: Universidad de Chile. Facultad de Economía y Negocios Publicador: Universidad de Chile. Facultad de Economía y Negocios
Tipo: Artículo de revista
Português
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This paper characterizes the surge of foreign capital inflows into Chile in the 1990s, it describes the policies to deal with these inflows, and analyzes the results of the policy mix used in terms of effectiveness with which flows were managed and effects on growth and investment. About 60 per cent of the flows have been foreign direct investment (FDI), the remainder being a mix of portfolio inflows, short-term credit, and longer-term borrowing, basically by banks and large domestic firms. The policies adopted have included the imposition of an unremunerated reserve requirement on all financial inflows (excluding FDI), active sterilized intervention on foreign exchange markets to prevent undue appreciation of the peso, and the use of a sliding exchange rate band. These policies appear to have prevented an even larger surge of foreign capital, have kept real exchange rate appreciation within bounds, and are partly responsible for the country’s positive growth performance. However; they have tended to lose effectiveness since late-1995, when capital inflows accelerated. The Chilean experience points to the need to face sharp temporary surges in capital inflows with a mix of policy tools rather than with a single instrument.

Large capital inflows, sectoral allocation and economic performance

Benigno, Gianluca; Converse, Nathan; Fornaro, Luca
Fonte: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /04/2015 Português
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This paper describes the stylized facts characterizing periods of exceptionally large capital inflows in a sample of 70 middle- and high-income countries over the last 35 years. We identify 155 episodes of large capital inflows and find that these events are typically accompanied by an economic boom and followed by a slump. Moreover, during episodes of large capital inflows capital and labor shift out of the manufacturing sector, especially if the inflows begin during a period of low international interest rates. However, accumulating reserves during the period in which capital inflows are unusually large appears to limit the extent of labor reallocation. Larger credit booms and capital inflows during the episodes we identify increase the probability of a sudden stop occurring during or immediately after the episode. In addition, the severity of the post-inflows recession is significantly related to the extent of labor reallocation during the boom, with a stronger shift of labor out of manufacturing during the inflows episode associated with a sharper contraction in the aftermath of the episode.