Since the mid 19th century, the biogeography of island South-East Asia has been the subject of much study. Early researchers explained many of the species distribution patterns by the rise and fall of sea levels and land. This and the work of other researchers culminated in a theory that emphasized the role of Pleistocene sea level low stands in species evolution. With the advent of newly developed molecular techniques, however, it became clear that many species divergence events had taken place before the Pleistocene and a biogeographical theory focusing on Pleistocene sea level changes was inadequate. In this research, I have developed a new biogeographic model that explains present-day distribution patterns and evolutionary relationships between species. I use this new model to explain 10 ‘mammalian riddles’, i.e. evolutionary or distribution patterns in selected mammal species groups that could not be explained with the existing theories. I developed the new model by analyzing the geological literature for this region, and by mapping palaeogeographical and palaeoenvironmental changes for the last 20 million years. In addition I compiled information on the palaeontological record for the region and on divergence times between taxa using a molecular clock assumption. These phylogenetic data were compared with the palaeomaps to assess whether particular divergence events could be correlated with certain palaeogeographical or palaeoenvironmental changes. The combination of these two information sources has resulted in a much-improved understanding of mammalian evolution in island SE Asia. Using this model it is now possible to relate important palaeoenvironmental events...
This paper explores East Asian finance in two parts. The first part of the paper provides an overview of the state of regional financial markets in East Asia. It looks at recent trends in capital flows and cross-border banking, the state of financial market infrastructure, and at developments in financial markets – stocks, foreign exchange, bonds, and derivatives – in East Asia. The picture is not pretty. East Asian financial markets are tiered: the developed markets of the region (Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong SAR and Australia) perform well by international standards, most of the others (like Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan PoC and Thailand) are average, and a couple (like Indonesia and the Philippines) look dismal. Infrastructure and risk management in the region are, in general, at relatively low levels by international standards. Many countries face serious challenges. Institutions are generally weak. Developing ASEAN has to compete more and more with China for funds. Continued weakness in its financial institutions, market structure, and economy are diminishing the importance of Japan and impeding regional development. The second part of the paper explores in more detail four of the many issues that arise in looking at finance in East Asia. The first is refocussing on harmonising markets in East Asia...
East Asia has a growing desire to strengthen its regional identity and forge effective and robust regional frameworks and institutions. This is the outcome of three main forces. One is the financial crises of 1997 and 1998, which revealed internal structural instabilities in some countries and the risk of relying too heavily on the uncertain goodwill of outsiders, notably the United States and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Another is the internal economic and growth dynamic of East Asia, where intra-regional trade and investment and economic interdependence are rising. The third is the economic development and increasing openness of China, which represents an unprecedented opportunity to engage constructively and inclusively with a country that may be the world’s next economic superpower. Satisfying this desire is not an easy task. It requires change and commitment. If it is done on the cheap, the result will be insubstantial. Strong and effective financial governance is essential if strong and effective regional institutions are to be built. At this point in time, policy dialogue, surveillance and financial cooperation lie at the core of financial governance in East Asia. The three elements are separate, but they build on each other. Policy dialogue refers to the framework by which policymakers from different countries come together to discuss issues. Surveillance is one set of issues by which policymakers not only share information and views on the events and problems of the day...
The financial crises of 1997 and 1998 have had a profound effect on how East Asia sees the role of the IMF and its strategic interests relative to those of the United States in international finance. The crises have spurred demand for a regional financial architecture in East Asia – ranging from deeper policy dialogue and surveillance, a system of financial cooperation, and even talk of common exchange rate arrangements. This paper analyses the economic, strategic and chauvinistic motivations behind this, and evaluates the merit of some of these proposals. Regional policy dialogue and surveillance in East Asia are weak, and the strengthening that is occurring through the ASEAN+3 grouping is welcome and important. There is also a strong case to be made for regional financial cooperation to complement global arrangements. A regional arrangement can secure liquidity and financing support to respond to small or localised crises, and may be a more effective preventive measure than the IMF’s Contingent Credit Line facility. A regional arrangement would also boost policy dialogue and surveillance. But progress to date has been slow.; no
The East Asian economies continue to have a major interest in the global liberalization of trade in industrial products. This interest is even more pronounced in the context of the deepening of the supply chain linkages in East Asia, a process that is associated in part with restructuring in Japan, Chinese Taipei and Korea and also the emergence of China in the world trading system. A number of formulae for negotiating industrial tariff reductions are now on the table in Geneva (including proposals from Japan, South Korea, China, Chinese Taipei, the United States and the European Union), and a first draft of the ‘modalities’ paper for achieving such cuts under the Doha Round was recently released. This paper reviews the impact of these formulae and comments on their relevance to countries in the East Asian community, including to the important goal of reforming their own tariff regimes. A genuine ‘top-down’ formula approach modeled on the Swiss approach is seen to offer the best economic prospects for multilateral tariff reform. Other risks in the approaches to industrial goods liberalisation, including more widespread application of anti-dumping and other safeguard measures, are also examined. The proliferation of anti-dumping action...
Before the financial crisis, a number of east Asian economies managed their exchange rates with the aim of stabilising the value of their currency against a basket of key major currencies, but overwhelmingly the US dollar (Frankel and Wei 1994). This suited these economies in the first half of the 1990s as the yen appreciated against the dollar, diverting trade and investment their way and stimulating economic growth. But as the dollar appreciated against the yen from 1995, these countries lost competitiveness relative to Japan and Europe, and their trading positions deteriorated, leaving them vulnerable to changes in investor sentiment. This experience has been taken to show the folly of a country tying its currency to that of only one of its several major trading partners: so long as the major currencies move by large amounts against each other, a country which exports to all the major economies but targets stability only in its exchange rate with one major currency will experience variability in its effective exchange rate and its bilateral exchange rates with the other major currencies. At the same time, trade within east Asia has become steadily more important to countries in the region. To the degree that the weights in an effective exchange rate target differ between countries...
There is a growing appetite in East Asia for thinking about ways to deepen economic and financial policy dialogue, cooperation and integration. This paper aims to inform that debate by examining what data on output, consumption and investment in East Asia reveal about linkages and commonality in the region. We apply time-series techniques to identify elements of commonality in East Asian output, consumption and investment data. We first set out the data we use for empirical analysis. US data are included to identify the relative importance of the United States to the region. We conduct four tests. First, we look for common trends in the variables using cointegration analysis. We then apply bivariate Granger-causality tests to output, consumption and investment growth to identify the short-run commonality in economic cycles in the region. We conduct latent factor analysis on growth rates in output, consumption and investment to identify common and idiosyncratic factors in these series. Finally, we look at the changing patterns and structure of correlations of consumption, purged of income effects, to measure financial integration in the region. As it turns out, these tests reveal much about the nature of linkages in the region.; yes
The need for deeper financial and trade cooperation in East Asia became clear through the experience of the East Asian financial crisis. The imperatives of East Asian cooperation mean that the quest for East Asian influence and leadership on regional and international affairs through ASEAN + 3 will continue. However, the creation of an East Asian Economic Community requires leadership and a model that is consistent with East Asian (not European or American) circumstances. Japan’s changing role in the regional economy prompted policy initiatives such as espousal of bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) aimed at closer East Asian regional economic and political links. This fundamental shift in Japan’s trade policy diplomacy was effected without public debate in Japan and the reactions to it from partner countries, almost entirely unanticipated by Japanese policymakers, led to some confusion in policy strategy. Discriminatory regional trade arrangements do not reflect the needs and circumstances of the East Asian economy at the beginning of the twenty-first century, and specifically the need to accommodate the growth and opening of the Chinese economy within the regional and global economic systems. The proliferation of FTA arrangements...
International product fragmentation—the cross-border dispersion of component production/assembly within vertically integrated production processes—is an important feature of the deepening structural interdependence of the world economy. This paper examines the implications of this phenomenon for global and regional trade patterns, with special emphasis on countries in East Asia, using a new data set culled from the UN trade database. It is found that, while ‘fragmentation trade’ has generally grown faster than total world trade in manufacturing, the degree of dependence of East Asia on this new form of international specialisation is proportionately larger compared to North America and Europe. The upshot is that international product fragmentation has made the East Asian growth dynamism increasingly reliant on extra-regional trade, strengthening the case for a global, rather than a regional, approach to trade and investment policymaking.; no
This article identifies a number of examples of apparent lack of coherence in United States and European Union trade policies. They include the effect of preferential policies that lock in trade shares and inhibit growth promoting structural adjustment, biases in tariff structures, policies that affect incentives of developing countries to make commitments in the World Trade Organisation, the use of anti-dumping actions and the nature of tariff peaks and escalation. The origins of the lack of policy coherence lie within the domestic policy-making processes of the developed economies. An important question, then, is whether opportunity exists for East Asian economies to mobilise to induce an external shock sufficient to shift policy consensus in the United States and the European Union – The key elements of such a grand bargain on trade in manufactured goods would include an explicit East Asian commitment to bind more tariff lines, initiatives to resolve the problem of accelerating anti-dumping actions and a replacement for the program of tariff preferences. A package of trade policy reforms of this type in East Asia would constitute a substantial offer and benefit to the United States and the European Union. It has the potential to trigger a response of equal benefit to East Asian economies.; no
This study examines the growth of population and the changing structure of employment in four megacities in South-East and East Asia: Jakarta, Bangkok, Manila and Taipei over the 1980-1990 period. As all these megacities have influenced the population and employment structure in a region extending well beyond their official boundaries, three zones are defined for each megacity: the metropolitan core, and an inner and an outer ring. The metropolitan core in each case is the officially defined metropolitan area. Addition of the two rings approximately doubles the population under consideration, to almost 16 million each in the cases of Jakarta and Manila. The inner ring is the zone of greatest change. It has received net migration from both the metropolitan core and from other parts of the country. Its employment structure has changed the most dramatically, because of location of many factories and other economic enterprises outside the metropolitan boundaries, and also because of the growth of housing estates, many of whose residents commute to work in the city core. The study concludes that studies of demographic and employment change in major metropolitan areas are enriched by the adoption of a zonal perspective.; no
The population of South-East Asia has recently passed the 500 million mark. Although growth is slowing, another 140 million may be added over the 20-year period 1995-2015. The additional population will be concentrated in the working ages and among the elderly. In many countries of the region – for example, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam – there will little or no further growth in the number of children and adolescents. Almost all countries will continue to benefit for some time yet from a decline in dependency ratios that has been in train since the early 1970s. By the mid-1990s, the whole region had progressed three quarters of the way toward replacement fertility in Singapore to continued very high fertility in Lao PDR. A general theory explaining the varied fertility experiences of the different countries remains elusive. Although South-East Asia remains one of the world’s least urbanized regions, urbanization is increasingly rapidly and the region contains some of the world’s largest cities. Because of wide differences between countries in their mortality and fertility transitions, levels of urbanization, systems of governance, and ethnic and cultural background, the key issues facing population policy and approaches to dealing with them remain diverse.; no
Approved for public release; distribution in unlimited.; The potential provision of ballistic missile defense (BMD) capabilities to the Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan carries an array of implications for U.S. interests and purposes in East Asia. Although missile defense would assist Taiwan in defending itself from Chinese ballistic missiles, it could generate adverse repercussions that impede Washington's ability to meet its strategic and foreign policy goals. This thesis addresses how the delivery of BMD to Taiwan might affect U.S. security interests in East Asia. Beijing's long-held fears of U.S. "hegemony" and containment may incite China to undertake political, strategic, or armed courses of action contrary to U.S. interests. Closer defense ties between Taipei and Washington might also jeopardize the ambiguity of the U.S.-China-Japan strategic triangular relationship, thereby weakening regional stability. Additionally, Japan may encounter difficulties in reconciling its role in a possible crisis in the Taiwan Strait, producing complications for the U.S.-Japan security alliance. Lastly, BMD in Taiwan could have unfavorable consequences for Washington's national security strategy, particularly its desires to stem the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and to foster cooperative relationships with other nations.; Lieutenant...
The inaugural East Asia Summit (EAS) was held in Kuala Lumpur on 14 December 2005 .
The EAS brought together leaders from the Association of South East Asian Nations
(ASEAN) as well as China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and India, for the
first time. Following the Summit, its 16 members declared that the EAS would be an
opportunity to discuss a broad range of strategic, political and economic issues of
importance to the region.
The Summit is the latest development in an emerging East Asian architecture which can
trace its origins to the abortive East Asian Economic Grouping (EAEG) proposed by
former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad in 1990. Since then, East Asian
regional cooperation has intensified through frameworks such as the Asia- Europe
Meetings (ASEM) and ASEAN Plus Three (ASEAN+3). In parallel, Asia Pacific
cooperation has developed through the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
forum, an initiative of the Australian and South Korean Governments .
The advent of the EAS raises numerous issues. What will its agenda be? Should
membership be expanded to include the US, Russia and others? Will the Summit be an
expression of an emerging, but as yet undefined, East Asian community? In light of
Since the end of the Cold War, India's strategic horizons have moved beyond its traditional preoccupations in South Asia. India is developing a strategic role in East Asia in particular. At the same time India's strategic thinking has undergone a revolution, as the country that prided itself on non-alignment has moved closer to the West. But India's culture, history and geography still fundamentally shape its worldview. In engaging with East Asia, India is guided by a mosaic of strategic objectives about extending its sphere of influence, developing a multipolar regional system and balancing against China. The interplay of these objectives will frame India's role in East Asia in coming years.
China's World Trade Organization
(WTO) accession will have major implications for China and
present both opportunities and challenges for East Asia.
Ianchovichina and Walmsley assess the possible channels
through which China's accession to the WTO could affect
East Asia and quantify these effects using a dynamic
computable general equilibrium model. China will be the
biggest beneficiary of accession, followed by the industrial
and newly industrializing economies (NIEs) in East Asia. But
their benefits are small relative to the size of their
economies and to the vigorous growth projected to occur in
the region over the next 10 years. By contrast, developing
countries in East Asia are expected to incur small declines
in real GDP and welfare as a result of China's
accession, mainly because with the elimination of quotas on
Chinese textile and apparel exports to industrial countries
China will become a formidable competitor in areas in which
these countries have comparative advantage. With WTO
accession China will increase its demand for petrochemicals...
The authors analyze the patterns of East
Asia's trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) from a
global and intraregional perspective, taking into account
the importance of trade and FDI interlinkages. They propose
two regionally-focused approaches to promoting trade and FDI
in East Asia-regional agreements and regional production
networks. The East Asia crisis strengthened appeals for
regional cooperation in the financial area. As a result, a
number of financial arrangements and initiatives have
emerged since the crisis, the most prominent of these, the
Chiang Mai Initiative. (The Association of Southeast Asian
Nations plus China, the Republic of Korea, and Japan decided
at their meeting in Chiang Mai, Thailand, in May 2000, to
establish a regional network of swap arrangements.) While
opening of the capital account is considered desirable in
the long run, it is associated with considerable risk,
particularly if macroeconomic policies are not sound and
financial supervision and regulation is weak. Because of the
potential volatility associated with floating regimes and
the desire to avoid another crisis in the region...
This is the final published version. It first appeared at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/gps.4297/abstract.; Objective: This study aims to synthesise evidence on time trends of dementia prevalence in East Asian
countries including Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan and assess the impact of the societal changes
on future prevalence.
Method: Relevant reviews and recent nationwide studies in East Asia were identified to investigate
changes in prevalence of dementia over time taking into account the potential impact of methodological
factors and study designs.
Results: The robust evidence that has been interpreted to suggest a substantial increasing trend over
time is less compelling once fundamental differences in study methods and populations across individual
surveys are considered. In Japan, longitudinal studies in small areas suggest the potential increase of
prevalence after 2000. Increasing trends in China, South Korea and Taiwan over the last 20?30 years are
based on the literature review without adjustment for methodological differences. Economic development
and huge societal changes alongside the rise of non-communicable disease in East Asia could lead
to increasing prevalence of dementia in the future once those cohorts with high risk of dementia
reached their older age.
Conclusion: Current evidence is not sufficient to suggest increasing trends of dementia prevalence in East
Asia. Longitudinal studies with representative samples and stable methodology are needed to provide fundamental
information of the epidemiology of dementia and identify important risk factors in East Asian societies.; There is no specific funding contributing to this study.
Yu-Tzu Wu received a PhD scholarship from the
East Asia is a region of widespread deformation, dominated by normal and strike-slip faults. Deformation has been interpreted to result from extrusion tectonics related to the India-Eurasia collision, which started in the Early Eocene. In East and SE China, however, deformation started earlier than the collision Oatest Cretaceous to Palaeocene), suggesting that extrusion tectonics is not the (only) driving mechanism for East Asia deformation. It is suggested that the East Asian active margin has influenced deformation in East Asia significantly. Along the margin, Cenozoic back-arc extension took place behind several adjoining arcs, implying eastward rollback of the subducting; slab and collapse of the overriding plate towards the retreating hinge-line. We show that extension took place along a c. 7400 km long stretch of the East Asian margin during most of the Cenozoic. Physical models are presented simulating overriding plate collapse and back-are extension. The models reproduce important aspects of the strain field in East Asia. For geometrical and rheological conditions scaled to represent East Asia, modelling shows that the active margin can be held responsible for deformation in East Asia as far west as the Baikal rift zone, located c. 3300 km from the margin.
Discovery of a well-stratified fish hook from a cave sequence on East Timor shows a fishing technology developed at least 5000 years before the Austronesian expansion through Island South East Asia and into the Pacific. The fish hook is fashioned from shell and has been radiocarbon dated to 9741 ± 60 b.p.