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External debt in developing economies: assessment and policy issues

Holland,Márcio
Fonte: Editora 34 Publicador: Editora 34
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/01/2007 Português
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More than one decade after the external debt restructuring (the Brady Plan), a great amount of literature has been published concerning the balance sheet factors in developing countries. The staff of international multilateral institutions joined with reputable academics in this great controversy. The external debt problem of the developing countries is back and once more reflections on its cause and on policy recommendations are analytically distinct. Our main task is to reflect on the recent external debt dynamics and assess how this debt has evolved. Our findings indicate that the susceptibility of some developing countries to default is associated with global imbalance, that is, the way they borrow.

Global Development Finance 2012 : External Debt of Developing Countries

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Português
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56.72%
The data and analysis presented in this edition of global development finance are based on actual flows and debt related transactions for 2010 reported to the World Bank Debtor Reporting System (DRS) by 129 developing countries. The reports confirm that in 2010 international capital flows to developing countries surpassed preliminary estimates and returned to their pre-crisis level of $1.1 trillion, an increase of 68 percent over the comparable figure for 2009. Private capital flows surged in 2010 driven by a massive jump in short-term debt, a strong rebound in bonds and more moderate rise in equity flows. Debt related inflows jumped almost 200 percent compared to a 25 percent increase in net equity flows. The rebound in capital flows was concentrated in a small group of 10 middle income countries where net capital inflows rose by an average of nearly 80 percent in 2010, almost double the rate of increase (44 percent) recorded by other developing countries. These 10 countries accounted for 73 percent of developing countries gross national income (GNI)...

Debt Overhang in Emerging Europe?

Brown, Martin; Lane, Philip R.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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56.69%
This paper assesses the extent to which debt overhang poses a constraint to economic activity in Emerging Europe, as the region emerges from the recent financial and economic crisis. At the macroeconomic level, it finds that the external imbalance problem for Emerging Europe has been in most cases more one of flows (high current account deficits in the pre-crisis years) rather than large stocks of external debt. A high reliance on equity funding means that net external debt is far lower than net external liabilities. Domestic balance sheets have expanded quite rapidly but sector liabilities remain relatively low compared with advanced economies. With the important exception of Hungary, public debt levels also remain relatively low in Emerging Europe. At the microeconomic level, the potential for debt overhang in the corporate sector is limited to a few countries: Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Slovenia. Due to the low incidence of household debt, hardly any country, except Estonia, seems to face a threat of debt overhang in the household sector. The strong increase in non-performing loans compared with pre-crisis bank profitability suggests that debt overhang in the banking sector is a threat in Ukraine...

Causality between External Debt and Capital Flight in Sub-Saharan Africa

Fofack, Hippolyte
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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66.72%
Over the past few decades, the foreign liabilities of the majority of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have grown dramatically, propelling most nations into the status of Highly Indebted Poor Countries, when these liabilities reached unsustainable levels in the 1990s. At the same time, increases in capital flight from the region followed a parallel trend, leading scholars to draw on "revolving door" models to explain the apparent positive covariation of external debt and capital flight in the region. This paper investigates the causality between external debt and capital flight in a cross-section of Sub-Saharan African countries using co-integration and error-correction models. Although dual causality, which is consistent with the revolving door hypothesis, cannot be rejected for the majority of countries, empirical evidence highlights the lead of external debt over capital flight. The significance of error-correction terms points to a long-run co-integrating relationship between external debt and capital flight in a large number of countries.

The Little Data Book on External Debt 2009

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Português
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The little data book on external debt, a pocket edition of Global Development Finance (GDF) 2009, volume two, summary and country tables, contains statistical tables on the external debt of the 128 countries that report public and publicly guaranteed external debt under the debtor reporting system. It also includes tables of selected debt and resource flow statistics for individual reporting countries as well as summary tables for regional and income groups. It is the culmination of a year-long process that requires extensive cooperation from people and organizations around the globe national central banks, ministries of finance, major multilateral organizations, and many departments of the World Bank. The little data book on external debt provides a quick reference for users of the GDF 2009 book, CD-ROM, GDF online, and electronic subscription database. The general cutoff date for data is December 2008. The economic aggregates presented in the tables are prepared for the convenience of users. Although debt ratios can provide useful information about developments in debt-servicing capacity...

The Little Data Book on External Debt 2010

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.7%
The little data book on external debt, a pocket edition of Global Development Finance (GDF) 2010: external debt of developing countries, contains statistical tables on the external debt of the 128 countries that report public and publicly guaranteed external debt under the debtor reporting system. It also includes tables of selected debt and resource flow statistics for individual reporting countries as well as summary tables for regional and income groups. It is the culmination of a year-long process that requires extensive cooperation from people and organizations around the globe-national central banks, ministries of finance, major multilateral organizations, and many departments of the World Bank. The little data book on external debt provides a quick reference for users of the GDF 2010 book, CD-ROM, GDF online, and electronic subscription database. The economic aggregates presented in the tables are prepared for the convenience of users. Although debt ratios can provide useful information about developments in debt-servicing capacity...

The Little Data Book on External Debt 2011

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.71%
The little data book on external debt, a pocket edition of global development finance 2011: external debt of developing countries contains statistical tables on the external debt of the 128 countries that report public and publicly guaranteed external debt under the debtor reporting system. It also includes tables of selected debt and resource flow statistics for individual reporting countries as well as summary tables for regional and income groups. It is the culmination of a year-long process that requires extensive cooperation from people and organizations around the globe, national central banks, Ministry of finance, major multilateral organizations, and many departments of the World Bank. The little data book on external debt provides a quick reference for users of the global development finance 2011 book, CD-ROM, and online database. The general cutoff date for data is September 2010. The little data book on external debt covers external debt stocks and flows, major economic aggregates, key debt ratios...

The Little Data Book on External Debt 2007

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.65%
The little data book on external debt, a pocket edition of Global Development Finance (GDF) 2007, volume two, summary and country tables, contains statistical tables on the external debt of the 135 countries that report public and publicly guaranteed debt under the debtor reporting system. It also includes tables of selected debt and resource flow statistics for individual reporting countries as well as summary tables for regional and income groups. It is the culmination of a year-long process that requires extensive cooperation from people and organizations around the globe national central banks, ministries of finance, major multilateral organizations, and many departments of the World Bank. The little data book on external debt provides a quick reference for users of the GDF 2007 book, CD-ROM, GDF online, and the electronic subscription database. The general cutoff date for data is December 2006. The economic aggregates presented in the tables are prepared for the convenience of users. Although debt ratios can provide useful information about developments in debt-servicing capacity...

The Little Data Book on External Debt 2008

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.66%
The little data book on external debt, a pocket edition of Global Development Finance (GDF) 2008, volume two, summary and country tables, contains statistical tables on the external debt of the 134 countries that report public and publicly guaranteed debt under the debtor reporting system. It also includes tables of selected debt and resource flow statistics for individual reporting countries as well as summary tables for regional and income groups. It is the culmination of a year-long process that requires extensive cooperation from people and organizations around the globe national central banks, ministries of finance, major multilateral organizations, and many departments of the World Bank. The little data book on external debt provides a quick reference for users of the GDF 2008 book, CD-ROM, GDF Online, and the electronic subscription database. The general cutoff date for data is December 2007. The economic aggregates presented in the tables are prepared for the convenience of users. Although debt ratios can provide useful information about developments in debt-servicing capacity...

The Little Book on External Debt 2006

World Bank
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.67%
The little book on external debt, a pocket edition of the Global Development Finance (GDF) 2006, volume two, summary and country tables, contains statistical tables on the external debt of the 135 countries that report public and publicly guaranteed debt under the debtor reporting system. It also includes tables of selected debt and resource flow statistics for individual reporting countries as well as summary tables for regional and income groups. It is the culmination of a year-long process that requires extensive cooperation from people and organizations around the globe, national central banks, ministries of finance, major multilateral organizations, and many departments of the World Bank. The little book on external debt, appearing for the first time this year, provides a quick reference for users of the GDF 2006 book, CD-ROM, GDF online, and electronic subscription database. The general cutoff date for data is December 2005. The economic aggregates presented in the tables are prepared for the convenience of users. Although debt ratios can provide useful information about developments in debt-servicing capacity, conclusions drawn from them will not be valid unless accompanied by careful economic evaluation.

The Little Data Book on External Debt 2012

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.71%
The little data book on external debt, a pocket edition of Global Development Finance 2012: external debt of developing countries contains statistical tables on the external debt of the 129 countries that report public and publicly guaranteed external debt under the debtor reporting system. It also includes tables of selected debt and resource flow statistics for individual reporting countries as well as summary tables for regional and income groups. It is the culmination of a year-long process that requires extensive cooperation from people and organizations around the globe, national central banks, and ministries of finance, major multilateral organizations, and many departments of the World Bank. The little data book on external debt provides a quick reference for users of the Global Development Finance 2012 book, CD-ROM, and online database. The general cutoff date for data is September 2011. The little data book on external debt covers external debt stocks and flows, major economic aggregates, key debt ratios...

When Is External Debt Sustainable?

Kraay, Aart; Nehru, Vikram
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Português
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66.59%
This paper examines the determinants of "debt distress," which they define as periods in which countries resort to exceptional finance in any of three forms: (1) significant arrears on external debt, (2) Paris Club rescheduling, and (3) nonconcessional International Monetary Fund lending. Using probit regressions, the authors find that three factors explain a substantial fraction of the cross-country and time-series variation in the incidence of debt distress: the debt burden, the quality of policies and institutions, and shocks. They show that these results are robust to a variety of alternative specifications, and that their core specifications have substantial out-of-sample predictive power. The authors also explore the quantitative implications of these results for the lending strategies of official creditors.

When Is External Debt Sustainable?

Kraay, Aart; Nehru, Vikram
Fonte: Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank Publicador: Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.7%
The article empirically examines the determinants of debt distress, defined as periods in which countries resort to any of three forms of exceptional finance: significant arrears on external debt, Paris Club rescheduling, and non-concessional International Monetary Fund lending. Probit regressions show that three factors explain a substantial fraction of the cross-country and time-series variation in the incidence of debt distress: the debt burden, the quality of policies and institutions, and shocks. The relative importance of these factors varies with the level of development. These results are robust to a variety of alternative specifications, and the core specifications have substantial out-of-sample predictive power. The quantitative implications of these results are examined for the lending strategies of official creditors.

African Debt since HIPC

Merotto, Dino; Stucka, Tihomir; Thomas, Mark Roland
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.68%
The paper finds a moderate evolution in public debt ratios since debt relief among heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) and multilateral debt relief initiative (MDRI) recipient countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, with certain exceptions. For eight countries the authors find rapid rates of debt accumulation, which can return them to pre-HIPC debt levels in only a few years. Short-term domestic debt has, despite early fears, in general not filled the borrowing space created by debt relief. However, external debt accumulation on commercial terms in some cases presages repayment spikes, which may combine with short-term domestic obligations to amplify refinancing risk and cause abrupt reductions in public spending, with damaging consequences for development. Finally, despite reduced debt, African economies continue to be commodity dependent and prone to shocks. As global interest rates and commodity prices revert to historically more customary levels, these countries should remain prudent: avoid tax-base erosion, prevent large recurrent spending hikes...

International Debt Statistics 2013

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.63%
International Debt Statistics (IDS) presents data and analysis information on the external debt of developing countries for 2011, based on actual flows and debt related transactions reported to the World Bank Debtor Reporting System (DRS) by 128 developing countries. It replaces Global Development Finance, which has been discontinued, and provides users with comprehensive stock and flow data on the external debt of individual developing countries and or regional and analytical groupings. As a service to users international debt statistics also set debt flows within the broader framework of aggregate net capital flows (debt and equity) to developing countries and includes a summary analysis of trends in 2011. The remainder of the overview is organized as follows. Section one analyze the key factors driving the evolution of developing countries' debt stocks and flows in 2011. Section two describes recent trends in external debt flows to developing countries, including the financing pattern of different categories of creditors and the concentration of flows in specific countries and country groups. Section three examines the remarkable growth of private nonguaranteed debt over the course of the decade and the parallel diversification of borrowing instruments available to developing countries' private sector borrowers. Section four assesses the level of developing countries' external debt...

Union of the Comoros : Debt Management Performance Assessment; Comores - Outil d'evaluation de la performance en matiere de gestion de la dette(DeMPA)

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, Dc Publicador: Washington, Dc
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: General Economy, Macroeconomics and Growth Study; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.68%
This study shows that performance in terms of debt management has been weakened by recurrent political and institutional crises experienced by the country in recent years and has had a negative impact on the State's ability to both mobilize external financing and to honor its financial commitments. The accumulation of external arrears has increased by extension of the depletion sources of funding. However, the government recently initiated numerous actions contributing to a more serene climate at home with the establishment of democratic governance, developing a program of poverty reduction and regularization of arrears. This more favorable environment will soon pave the way for more substantial outside funding, especially following the accession of the Comoros to the enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC), and therefore requires the full attention of the authorities to implement better management of public debt. This evaluation is part of this perspective. Overall, performance in terms of debt management in the Comoros is satisfactory in all three of the following areas: (i) coordination with fiscal policy...

Global Development Finance 2010 : External Debt of Developing Countries

World Bank
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.68%
The World Bank's Debtor Reporting System (DRS), from which the aggregates and country tables presented in this report are drawn, was established in 1951. The debt crisis of the 1980s brought increased attention to debt statistics and to the world debt tables, the predecessor to global development finance. Now the global financial crisis has once again heightened awareness in developing countries of the importance of managing their external obligations. Central to this process is the measurement and monitoring of external debt stocks and flows in a coordinated and comprehensive way. The initial objective of the DRS was to support the World Bank's assessment of the creditworthiness of its borrowers. But it has grown as a tool to inform developing countries and the international community of trends in external financing and as a standard for the concepts and definitions on which countries can base their own debt management systems. Over the years the external financing options available to developing countries have evolved and expanded, and so too has the demand for timely and relevant data to measure the activity of public and private sector borrowers and creditors. Recurrent debt crises caused by adverse global economic conditions or poor economic management have demanded solutions...

Global Development Finance 2011 : External Debt of Developing Countries

World Bank
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.72%
The World Bank's Debtor Reporting System (DRS), from which the aggregates and country tables presented in this report are drawn, was established in 1951. The debt crisis of the 1980s brought increased attention to debt statistics and to the World debt tables, the predecessor to Global development finance. Now the global financial crisis has once again heightened awareness in developing countries of the importance of managing their external obligations. International capital flows to the 128 developing countries reporting to the World Bank Debtor Reporting System (DRS) fell by 20 percent in 2009 to $598 billion (3.7 percent of Gross National Income (GNI), compared with $744 billion in 2008 (4.5 percent of GNI) and a little over half the peak level of $1,111 billion realized in 2007. Private flows (debt and equity) declined by 27 percent despite a rebound in bond issuance, portfolio equity flows, and short-term debt flows. Both foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and bank lending fell precipitously. By contrast, the net inflow of debt-related financing from official creditors (excluding grants) rose 175 percent as support was stepped up to low- and middle-income countries severely affected by the global financial crisis.

Republic of Kenya : Medium Term Debt Management Strategy, 2010/11-2012/13

Ministry of Finance
Fonte: Nairobi Publicador: Nairobi
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Financial Sector Study
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.7%
The objective of debt management in Kenya is to finance the Government financing requirements at the least cost with a prudent degree of risk. The 2010 Medium Term Debt Strategy (MTDS) is a versatile public debt management tool linked to the medium term fiscal framework that contains prudent revenue projections and planned expenditures consistent with Kenya's economic recovery effort. The strategy seeks to address the terms of new borrowing, including the appropriate mix between domestic and external debt. This report explores the objectives of debt management in Kenya, an overview of the previous medium term debt strategy, key developments, characteristics of the existing debt portfolio, outcomes of analysis of strategies, debt sustainability and implementing the 2010 MTDS.

Debt Management Performance Assessment : Papua New Guinea

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work; Economic & Sector Work :: Debt Management Performance Assessment
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.69%
At the request of the Government of Papua New Guinea (PNG), a mission comprised of Jeff Chelsky (PRMVP, mission lead), Tomas Magnusson (BDM, consultant), Greg Horman (BDM, consultant) and Tim Bulman (EAP, country economist), visited Port Moresby between November 22nd and December 3rd to undertake a DeMPA exercise. The team met with officials from the Department of Treasury, Bank of Papua New Guinea, Department of Finance, Department of National Planning and Monitoring, State Solicitor's Office, Auditor General's Office, Independent Public Business Corporation (IPBC), AUSAid, Asian Development Bank, ANZ Bank, Nambawan Super, and Bank South Pacific (BSP). This report reflects comments received from the PNG authorities in February 2011. The mission found that, in a number of areas, PNG meets or exceeds minimum DeMPA requirements. Strengths include the quality of the debt management strategy, the framework for domestic debt issuance, coordination with monetary policy, and the legal framework (except for the issuance of T-bills for which the law contains no explicit borrowing purposes). Looking ahead...