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Risco e Causalidade nos Principais Mercados de Acções Europeus

Araújo, André da Silva de
Fonte: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão Publicador: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em /07/2011 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.97%
Mestrado em Finanças; Com os acontecimentos que desencadearam a crise financeira mundial de 2008, os mercados financeiros globais foram palco do maior contágio de risco de que há memória. Por esta razão, o permanente controlo e monitorização de movimentações extremas em mercados estrangeiros torna-se cada vez mais fundamental para uma boa gestão de risco e, em grande parte, para a sobrevivência das instituições financeiras. Utilizando o conceito da causalidade de Granger em risco, o presente trabalho investiga efeitos de contágio nos principais mercados de acções europeus, protagonizados pelo CAC 40, DAX 30 e FTSE 100. Para tal, foi necessário realizar previsões diárias, recorrendo a diversos modelos paramétricos, do Value-at-Risk (VaR), com as respectivas avaliações do seu desempenho. No âmbito europeu, resultados empíricos permitem concluir a ocorrência de contágio de movimentações extremas negativas, estatisticamente significativas, apenas no sentido do CAC 40 para o FTSE 100. Investigação posterior refere que grande parte do risco presente nos três índices europeus é contribuída pelo S&P 500, não se verificando o inverso.

Advancing Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance in ASEAN Member States : Framework and Options for Implementation, Volume 2. Technical Appendices

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.14%
This report is part of a project being jointly conducted by the World Bank, the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretariat, and United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR). It aims to provide capacity building on disaster risk financing and insurance (DRFI) in ASEAN Member States. DRFI is a relatively new topic and, therefore, training and capacity building of local stakeholders is essential. Governments must understand the benefits and the limitations of disaster risk financing and insurance as part of their comprehensive Disaster Risk Management (DRM) strategies. This report presents main findings and recommendations on DRFI in the ASEAN region. Following the World Bank disaster risk financing and insurance framework, it consists of five chapters, including this introduction. Chapter two presents a preliminary economic and fiscal risk assessment of natural disasters in ASEAN Member States. Chapter three provides an overview of the fiscal management of natural disasters currently implemented by ASEAN Member States. Chapter four reviews the state of the private catastrophe insurance markets...

Lebanon : Economic and Social Impact Assessment of the Syrian Conflict

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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15.86%
To provide a solid basis to define its needs and frame its priorities in terms of the specific assistance it seeks from the international community as well as to inform its own domestic policy response, the Government of Lebanon (GoL) requested the World Bank to lead an Economic and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) of the Syrian conflict on Lebanon. Upon an official request from the Prime Minister of Lebanon, through a letter addressed to the World Bank dated July 25, 2013, this assessment has been conducted under the leadership of the World Bank, in collaboration with the United Nation (UN), the European Union (EU), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The outcome is the present report, of which the accuracy, quality and suitability for further dissemination is the responsibility of the World Bank, with input from the above mentioned key partners.

Sierra Leone Growth Pole Diagnostic : The Growth Poles Program

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
25.92%
This First Phase Report on Sierra Leone growth poles is the result of a 9 months consultative process led by the Office of the President which specifically requested that the output of this diagnostic be in an engaging format. The fundamental concept of growth poles is that they exploit agglomeration economies and spillover effects to spread resulting prosperity from the core of the pole to the periphery. At the basis of this theory is the assumption that economic development is not uniform over a region. Rather, it concentrates around a geographic feature or economic hub. In particular, it frequently concentrates around a key industry, around which linked industries develop. A growth pole can be used to nurture direct and indirect linkages from the flagship industry to supporting sectors, which vastly expands the employment generation potential of new investments in said flagship industry. The expansion of this key industry implies the expansion of output, employment, related investments, as well as new technologies and new industrial sectors.

Bangladesh - Poverty Assessment for Bangladesh : Creating Opportunities and Bridging the East-West Divide

World Bank
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Poverty Assessment; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.01%
Bangladesh represents a success story among developing countries. Poverty incidence, which was as high as 57 percent at the beginning of the 1990s, had declined to 49 percent in 2000. This trend accelerated subsequently, reducing the poverty headcount rate to 40 percent in 2005. The primary contributing factor was robust and stable economic growth along with no worsening of inequality. Respectable GDP growth that started at the beginning of the 1990s continued into the new millennium and averaged above 5 percent annually between 2000 and 2005. Inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient of consumption, remained stable between 2000 and 2005. Recent shocks to the Bangladeshi economy in the form of natural disasters and rising food prices have partially dampened the rapid progress in reducing poverty. The year 2007 saw two natural disasters, floods and a devastating cyclone within a few months of each other. Another significant shock has been the steep rise in food prices, including the main staple, rice...

Bangladesh - Poverty Assessment for Bangladesh : Creating Opportunities and Bridging the East-West Divide

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Poverty Assessment; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.01%
Bangladesh represents a success story among developing countries. Poverty incidence, which was as high as 57 percent at the beginning of the 1990s, had declined to 49 percent in 2000. This trend accelerated subsequently, reducing the poverty headcount rate to 40 percent in 2005. The primary contributing factor was robust and stable economic growth along with no worsening of inequality. Respectable GDP growth that started at the beginning of the 1990s continued into the new millennium and averaged above 5 percent annually between 2000 and 2005. Inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient of consumption, remained stable between 2000 and 2005. Recent shocks to the Bangladeshi economy in the form of natural disasters and rising food prices have partially dampened the rapid progress in reducing poverty. The year 2007 saw two natural disasters, floods and a devastating cyclone within a few months of each other. Another significant shock has been the steep rise in food prices, including the main staple, rice...

Economics of Climate Change in the Arab World : Case Studies from the Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen

Verner, Dorte; Breisinger, Clemens
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.09%
This Economics of Climate Change in the Arab World is presents detailed case studies on the impacts of climate change in the Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen that were summarized. The Arab region is already being impacted by climate change through more frequent cyclones, floods, and prolonged droughts. Thousands of rural producers have seen their crops and herds devastated by extreme conditions, and have been forced to abandon their traditional way of life and migrate to crowded urban areas. Those who stay behind in rural areas struggle to cope with shortages of food and water. Climate change affects countries' economies and households through a variety of channels. Rising temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns affect agricultural yields of both rainfed and irrigated crops, and thus global and local food markets. Adaptation is a process that will take place over decades as new information makes policy makers reevaluate their climate vulnerabilities. Still, by seizing the opportunity to act now and act together...

Natural Disasters in the Middle East and North Africa : A Regional Overview; Catastrophes naturelles dans le moyen-orient et l'Afrique du Nord : apercu regional

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.14%
Disasters are increasing worldwide, with more devastating effects than ever before. While the absolute number of disasters around the world has almost doubled since the 1980s, the average number of natural disasters in Middle East and North Africa (MNA) has almost tripled over the same period of time. In the MNA, the interplay of natural disasters, rapid urbanization, water scarcity, and climate change has emerged as a serious challenge for policy and planning. Projections by climatologists and United Nations specialists suggest that MNA economies and livelihoods will be the second most affected by climate change. Governments across the region have seen a progressive increase in demand for comprehensive disaster risk management (DRM) services. Since 2007, a range of country-level programs have been launched in Djibouti, Morocco, and the Republic of Yemen to increase their resilience to disasters due to Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). Decentralization of the DRM agenda has progressed slowly...

Toward Synergy and Collaboration to Expand the Supply of and Strengthen Primary Health Care in Nigeria’s Federal Context, with Special Reference to Ondo State

Atim, Chris; Bhatnagar, Aarushi
Fonte: World Bank, Washington DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
25.86%
This study examines an innovative example of the expansion of supply and the strengthening of primary health care to improve key health-related Millennium Development Goal, or MDG indicators through synergy and collaboration between the federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) and state governments in an extreme federal context, and with particular reference to Ondo State. That is, the Nigerian Federal Constitution grants the federal government only very limited and indirect influence or control over the fiscal and financial affairs of state and local governments, such that 'plans, budgets, accounts and procurements are not subject to federal control and scrutiny'. Nor must the lower tiers account to the federal level for how funds transferred to them from the central level are used. The rest of case study is organized as follows. Section two describes the design of the HCP, including its interaction with the rest of the health system; section three discusses the targeting, identification, and enrolment system; section four examines the management of public funds within the HCP; section five analyses the management of the benefits package; section six reviews the information environment and monitoring systems of the HCP; section seven summarizes and analyses the evidence on the key theme of the study...

Sustainable and Smart Cities

Kahn, Matthew E.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.06%
This paper explores the challenges and opportunities that government officials face in designing coherent 'rules of the game' for achieving urban sustainability during times of growth. Sustainability is judged by three criteria. The first involves elements of day-to-day quality of life, such as having clean air and water and green space. The provision of these public goods has direct effects on the urban public's health and productivity. The second focuses on the city's greenhouse gas emissions. Developing cities are investing in new infrastructure, from highways and public transit systems to electricity generation and transmission. They are building water treatment, water delivery, and sewage disposal systems. Residents of these cities are simultaneously making key decisions about where they live and work and whether to buy such energy-consuming durables as private vehicles and home air-conditioning units. Given the long-lived durability of the capital stock, short-term decisions will have long-term effects on the city's carbon footprint. The third criterion is a city's resilience to natural disasters and extreme weather events. This subsection focuses on how the urban poor can be better equipped to adapt to the anticipated challenges of climate change.

Climate and Disaster Resilience : The Role for Community-Driven Development

Arnold, Margaret; Mearns, Robin; Oshima, Kaori; Prasad, Vivek
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.24%
This paper is part of a larger effort to document, assess, and promote scalable models and approaches to empower poor communities to manage a climate and disaster risk agenda in support of their development goals and to identify practical ways of getting climate and disaster risk financing directly to the ground level where impacts are felt. Social funds, social protection systems and safety nets, community-driven development (CDD) projects, livelihoods-support and related operational platforms can serve as useful vehicles for promoting community-level resilience to disaster and climate risk. This paper examines the World Bank's Community-Driven Development (CDD) portfolio to assess experience to date and to explore the potential for building the resilience of vulnerable communities to climate and disaster risk through CDD programs. It aims to be useful to both the Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management practitioner as well as the CDD practitioner. The paper assesses the scale of climate and disaster resilience support provided through CDD projects from 2001-11 and characterizes the forms of support provided. For the climate change adaption and disaster risk management (DRM) practitioner...

Preparing to Manage Natural Hazards and Climate Change Risks in Dakar, Senegal : A Spatial and Institutional Approach; Preparation a la Gestion des Perils Naturels et des Risques lies aux Changement Climatique a Dakar, Senegal : une approche spatiale et institutionnelle

Wang, Hyoung Gun; Montoliu-Munoz, Marisela; Gueye, Ndèye Fatou D.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Environmental Study; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.16%
This report describes a pilot study of natural risk hazards in the peri-urban extension areas of the Dakar Metropolitan Area, Senegal. The area subject of this study stretches across 580 square kilometers, covering less than 1 percent of the national territory, but housing about 50 percent of Senegal's urban population. Much of the rapid population growth of the Dakar Metropolitan Area is taking place beyond the boundaries of the Department of Dakar (the city center), in peri-urban areas that combine two disquieting features: they present significant vulnerability to some natural hazards, and they have unclear administrative and governance arrangements, often being out of the direct oversight of established urban and rural local governments. Situations like this are not unusual in developing countries, and call for more systematic attention to hazard risk management in peri-urban areas, including a better understanding and awareness of the nature of the hazards that they face as well as of the institutional capacities and measures that would be necessary to manage them better. The objective of this pilot study is...

Spatiotemporal Aspects of Hendra Virus Infection in Pteropid Bats (Flying-Foxes) in Eastern Australia

Field, Hume; Jordan, David; Edson, Daniel; Morris, Stephen; Melville, Debra; Parry-Jones, Kerryn; Broos, Alice; Divljan, Anja; McMichael, Lee; Davis, Rodney; Kung, Nina; Kirkland, Peter; Smith, Craig
Fonte: Public Library of Science Publicador: Public Library of Science
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 01/12/2015 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
15.97%
Hendra virus (HeV) causes highly lethal disease in horses and humans in the eastern Australian states of Queensland (QLD) and New South Wales (NSW), with multiple equine cases now reported on an annual basis. Infection and excretion dynamics in pteropid bats (flying-foxes), the recognised natural reservoir, are incompletely understood. We sought to identify key spatial and temporal factors associated with excretion in flying-foxes over a 2300 km latitudinal gradient from northern QLD to southern NSW which encompassed all known equine case locations. The aim was to strengthen knowledge of Hendra virus ecology in flying-foxes to improve spillover risk prediction and exposure risk mitigation strategies, and thus better protect horses and humans. Monthly pooled urine samples were collected from under roosting flying-foxes over a three-year period and screened for HeV RNA by quantitative RT-PCR. A generalised linear model was employed to investigate spatiotemporal associations with HeV detection in 13,968 samples from 27 roosts. There was a non-linear relationship between mean HeV excretion prevalence and five latitudinal regions, with excretion moderate in northern and central QLD, highest in southern QLD/northern NSW, moderate in central NSW...

Bayesian inference for CoVaR

Bernardi, Mauro; Gayraud, Ghislaine; Petrella, Lea
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.01%
Recent financial disasters emphasised the need to investigate the consequence associated with the tail co-movements among institutions; episodes of contagion are frequently observed and increase the probability of large losses affecting market participants' risk capital. Commonly used risk management tools fail to account for potential spillover effects among institutions because they provide individual risk assessment. We contribute to analyse the interdependence effects of extreme events providing an estimation tool for evaluating the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) defined as the Value-at-Risk of an institution conditioned on another institution being under distress. In particular, our approach relies on Bayesian quantile regression framework. We propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm exploiting the Asymmetric Laplace distribution and its representation as a location-scale mixture of Normals. Moreover, since risk measures are usually evaluated on time series data and returns typically change over time, we extend the CoVaR model to account for the dynamics of the tail behaviour. Application on U.S. companies belonging to different sectors of the Standard and Poor's Composite Index (S&P500) is considered to evaluate the marginal contribution to the overall systemic risk of each individual institution