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Accounting earnings properties and determinants of earnings response coefficient in Brazil; Propriedades do lucro contábil e determinantes do coeficiente de resposta ao lucro no Brasil

Pimentel, Renê Coppe
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 17/12/2009 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
35.85%
A fundamental issue at the interface of economics, finance, and accounting involves the relation between a firm's reported earnings and its stock returns. The lack of research in this field using Brazilian data and the limitations of previous research in terms of time-series data (small length available) motivates the present research. In addition, the practical justification of this research is that time-series properties of accounting earnings and the determinants of Earnings Response Coefficient (ERC) have a direct application in earnings forecasting and the valuation process. Based on this, the general objectives of this dissertation are to analyse the earnings time-series properties and to find the economic determinants of ERC in Brazil. Consequently, this dissertation is divided into three main sections/studies: (1) An analysis of the time-series properties of accounting earnings and the long-term relationship among price, return and earnings; (2) An analysis of the relevance and significance of ERC for individual companies and pooled data; and, (3) Elucidation of the economic determinants of ERC in Brazil. In order to achieve these objectives, quarterly and annual data were gathered and analysed. The quarterly sample is composed by 71 firms with quarterly data from the first quarter of 1995 until first quarter of 2009 (57 time-observations)...

Causalidade Granger em medidas de risco; Granger Causality with Risk Measures

Murakami, Patricia Nagami
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 02/05/2011 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
116.28%
Esse trabalho apresenta um estudo da causalidade de Granger em Risco bivariado aplicado a séries temporais financeiras. Os eventos de risco, no caso de séries financeiras, estão relacionados com a avaliação do Valor em Risco das posições em ativos. Para isso, os modelos CaViaR, que fazem parte do grupo de modelos de Regressão Quantílica, foram utilizado para identificação desses eventos. Foram expostos os conceitos principais envolvidos da modelagem, assim como as definições necessárias para entendê-las. Através da análise da causalide de Granger em risco entre duas séries, podemos investigar se uma delas é capaz de prever a ocorrência de um valor extremo da outra. Foi realizada a análise de causalidade de Granger usual somente para como comparativo.; Quantile Regression, Value at Risk, CAViaR Model, Granger Causality, Granger Causality in Risk

Exchange rate dynamics in Brazil

Vilela Vieira, Flávio; Brito, Marcio Holland de
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
35.72%
The paper aims to investigate on empirical and theoretical grounds the Brazilian exchange rate dynamics under floating exchange rates. The empirical analysis examines the short and long term behavior of the exchange rate, interest rate (domestic and foreign) and country risk using econometric techniques such as variance decomposition, Granger causality, cointegration tests, error correction models, and a GARCH model to estimate the exchange rate volatility. The empirical findings suggest that one can argue in favor of a certain degree of endogeneity of the exchange rate and that flexible rates have not been able to insulate the Brazilian economy in the same patterns predicted by literature due to its own specificities (managed floating with the use of international reserves and domestic interest rates set according to inflation target) and to externally determined variables such as the country risk. Another important outcome is the lack of a closer association of domestic and foreign interest rates since the new exchange regime has been adopted. That is, from January 1999 to May 2004, the US monetary policy has no significant impact on the Brazilian exchange rate dynamics, which has been essentially endogenous primarily when we consider the fiscal dominance expressed by the probability of default.

Cálculo do Value at Risk (VaR) para o Ibovespa, pós crise de 2008, por meio dos modelos de heterocedasticidade condicional (GARCH) e de volatilidade estocástica (Local Scale Model - LSM)

Santos, Julio Cesar Grimalt dos
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Tipo: Dissertação
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.86%
O objetivo deste estudo é propor a implementação de um modelo estatístico para cálculo da volatilidade, não difundido na literatura brasileira, o modelo de escala local (LSM), apresentando suas vantagens e desvantagens em relação aos modelos habitualmente utilizados para mensuração de risco. Para estimação dos parâmetros serão usadas as cotações diárias do Ibovespa, no período de janeiro de 2009 a dezembro de 2014, e para a aferição da acurácia empírica dos modelos serão realizados testes fora da amostra, comparando os VaR obtidos para o período de janeiro a dezembro de 2014. Foram introduzidas variáveis explicativas na tentativa de aprimorar os modelos e optou-se pelo correspondente americano do Ibovespa, o índice Dow Jones, por ter apresentado propriedades como: alta correlação, causalidade no sentido de Granger, e razão de log-verossimilhança significativa. Uma das inovações do modelo de escala local é não utilizar diretamente a variância, mas sim a sua recíproca, chamada de “precisão” da série, que segue uma espécie de passeio aleatório multiplicativo. O LSM captou todos os fatos estilizados das séries financeiras, e os resultados foram favoráveis a sua utilização, logo, o modelo torna-se uma alternativa de especificação eficiente e parcimoniosa para estimar e prever volatilidade...

Causalidade e co-integração de séries temporais : mercado futuro de trigo e a vista de farinha de trigo

Amaro, Rodrigo Kulpa
Fonte: Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul Publicador: Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Tipo: Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso Formato: application/pdf
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
35.98%
Os mercados futuros existem desde a Idade Média, mas a sua importância econômica cresceu após o surgimento da internet e dos pregões eletrônicos. Com o aumento do volume de negociações, os mercados futuros ganharam liquidez e transparência. A partir disso, diversos estudos acadêmicos foram realizados, explorando as funcionalidades dos mercados futuros. Observa-se que ainda há muitas funções indiretas que podem ser exercidas pelos derivativos em geral, não restritas à proteção do risco de variação de preços. As indústrias de transformação elaboram o seu planejamento utilizando expectativas para o futuro, considerando a probabilidade de ocorrência de cada cenário possível. Os critérios para a formulação dessas expectativas são uma escolha particular de cada empresa, porém esse trabalho propõe o uso de dados históricos dos contratos futuros de trigo da Chicaco Mercantile Exchange para embasar uma expectativa para o preço a vista no futuro da farinha de trigo comprada pela PAVIOLI S.A. Para isso, foram utilizados os testes de causalidade de Granger e de co-integração Engle-Granger.; Future markets and options trading exist since Middle Age, but their economic significance grown after the appearance of the internet and the real time quotes. As the operations volume grown...

Risco e Causalidade nos Principais Mercados de Acções Europeus

Araújo, André da Silva de
Fonte: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão Publicador: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em /07/2011 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.88%
Mestrado em Finanças; Com os acontecimentos que desencadearam a crise financeira mundial de 2008, os mercados financeiros globais foram palco do maior contágio de risco de que há memória. Por esta razão, o permanente controlo e monitorização de movimentações extremas em mercados estrangeiros torna-se cada vez mais fundamental para uma boa gestão de risco e, em grande parte, para a sobrevivência das instituições financeiras. Utilizando o conceito da causalidade de Granger em risco, o presente trabalho investiga efeitos de contágio nos principais mercados de acções europeus, protagonizados pelo CAC 40, DAX 30 e FTSE 100. Para tal, foi necessário realizar previsões diárias, recorrendo a diversos modelos paramétricos, do Value-at-Risk (VaR), com as respectivas avaliações do seu desempenho. No âmbito europeu, resultados empíricos permitem concluir a ocorrência de contágio de movimentações extremas negativas, estatisticamente significativas, apenas no sentido do CAC 40 para o FTSE 100. Investigação posterior refere que grande parte do risco presente nos três índices europeus é contribuída pelo S&P 500, não se verificando o inverso.

Diet, tobacco, alcohol, and stress as causes of coronary artery heart disease: an ecological trend analysis of national data.

Lynch, W. D.; Glass, G. V.; Tran, Z. V.
Fonte: Yale Journal of Biology and Medicine Publicador: Yale Journal of Biology and Medicine
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //1988 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26%
The present investigation examined the temporal relationships between changes in coronary artery heart disease (CAHD) mortality rates from whites (1938-1980) and changes in national measures of dietary elements, tobacco consumption, alcohol consumption, and unemployment. The magnitude and latency of the causal relationships were estimated with the use of cross-lagged correlation functions (CCFs) and Granger causality tests. Preliminary CCFs showed consistent correlational patterns between CAHD and tobacco, ethanol, and dietary fats. There was little association between CAHD and dietary cholesterol. Ethanol, tobacco, and the ratio of saturated to polyunsaturated fats (S:P) were analyzed for directional causality using Granger causality tests. The S:P ratio demonstrated a unidirectional Granger causal relationship with CAHD mortality in all sex and age groups. The estimated latency of this relationship was 23 to 30 years. This finding supports a causal relationship between diet, specifically fats, and the risk of CAHD two or three decades later.

Interaction of catechol O-methyltransferase and serotonin transporter genes modulates effective connectivity in a facial emotion-processing circuitry

Surguladze, S A; Radua, J; El-Hage, W; Gohier, B; Sato, J R; Kronhaus, D M; Proitsi, P; Powell, J; Phillips, M L
Fonte: Nature Publishing Group Publicador: Nature Publishing Group
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
35.67%
Imaging genetic studies showed exaggerated blood oxygenation level-dependent response in limbic structures in carriers of low activity alleles of serotonin transporter-linked promoter region (5-HTTLPR) as well as catechol O-methyltransferase (COMT) genes. This was suggested to underlie the vulnerability to mood disorders. To better understand the mechanisms of vulnerability, it is important to investigate the genetic modulation of frontal-limbic connectivity that underlies emotional regulation and control. In this study, we have examined the interaction of 5-HTTLPR and COMT genetic markers on effective connectivity within neural circuitry for emotional facial expressions. A total of 91 healthy Caucasian adults underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging experiments with a task presenting dynamic emotional facial expressions of fear, sadness, happiness and anger. The effective connectivity within the facial processing circuitry was assessed with Granger causality method. We have demonstrated that in fear processing condition, an interaction between 5-HTTLPR (S) and COMT (met) low activity alleles was associated with reduced reciprocal connectivity within the circuitry including bilateral fusiform/inferior occipital regions, right superior temporal gyrus/superior temporal sulcus...

Beyond Trade : The Impact of Preferential Trade Agreements on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows

Medvedev, Denis
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
35.67%
The author investigates the effects of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on the net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows of member countries using a comprehensive database of PTAs in a panel setting. He finds that PTA membership is associated with a positive change in net FDI inflows, and the FDI gains are increasing in the market size of the PTA partners and their proximity to the host country. The author identifies several different channels through which preferential trade liberalization may affect FDI, and confirms that both threshold effects (signing the agreement) and market size effects (joining a larger and faster-growing common market) are important determinants of net FDI inflows, although the latter seem to dominate. The estimated relationship is largely driven by North-South PTAs, and is most pronounced in the late 1990s and early 2000s, the period when the majority of "deep integration" PTAs had been advanced.

Contractual Savings or Stock Market Development—Which Leads?

Catalan, Mario; Impavido, Gregorio; Musalem, Alberto R.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
35.91%
The authors study the relationship between the development of contractual savings (assets of pension funds, and life insurance companies) and non-life insurance, and, the development of stock markets (market capitalization and value traded). Their contribution lies in providing time-series evidence on a hypothesis that is very popular - but had not been substantiated - among supporters of fully funded pension systems in which funds invest large shares of their portfolios in tradable securities (equities, bonds). The literature is not clear on its assumption regarding causality between contractual savings, and capital market development. A one-way or two-way relationship is assumed, usually inter-changeably; the authors address the questions of which leads empirically. They present the evidence, including descriptive statistics, and the results of Granger causality tests, for OECD countries, and such countries as Chile, Malaysia, Singapore, South Africa, and Thailand. They do not present a theoretical framework, but do explain how the growth of the contractual savings sector, is thought to promote financial development. The authors find evidence in the data that causality between institutions, and markets either does not exist, or, if it exists...

The influence of real estate risk on market volatility

Cheong, C.; Olshansky, A.; Zurbrugg, R.Y.
Fonte: Emerald Group Publishing Limited Publicador: Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2011 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.78%
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the causal relationship between risk experienced within the real estate industry and that of the overall market in the UK context. The motivation behind this research is to investigate whether the real estate sector transmits risk to the wider marketplace and whether this phenomenon existed, or was exacerbated, during the most recent financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach – The study was undertaken over a 20-year timeframe, from 1990 to 2010, with special attention being awarded to the global financial crisis (GFC) period from 2008 to 2010. The paper first undertakes graphical modeling of market and industry volatilities in an attempt to identify which industry drives market uncertainty. This is followed by quantitative computation of industry-specific volatility, which is employed in examining the relationship between these volatilities using block exogeneity/Granger causality tests. Rolling sample analysis and impulse response functions are employed as robustness tests to substantiate the main results. Findings – First, the analysis confirms research that finance industry volatility is a leader in driving market volatility. Second, it expands on these findings to identify the real estate sector as being a key source of this causal relationship. It finds that real estate risk is the one that regularly drives finance industry volatility over the 20-year sample period. Third...

Testing Causality between Two Vectors in Multivariate GARCH Models

WOŹNIAK, Tomasz
Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf; digital
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.93%
Spillover and contagion effects have gained significant interest in the recent years of financial crisis. Attention has not only been directed to relations between returns of financial variables, but to spillovers in risk as well. I use the family of Constant Conditional Correlation GARCH models to model the risk associated with financial time series and to make inferences about Granger causal relations between second conditional moments. The restrictions for second-order Granger noncausality between two vectors of variables are derived. To assess the credibility of the noncausality hypotheses, I employ posterior odds ratios. This Bayesian method constitutes an alternative for classical tests that makes such testing possible, regardless of the form of the restrictions on the parameters of the model. Moreover, it relaxes the assumptions about the existence of higher-order moments of the processes required in classical tests. In the empirical example, I find that the pound-to-Euro exchange rate second-order causes the US dollar-to-Euro exchange rate, which confirms the meteor shower hypothesis of Engle, Ito & Lin (1990).

Specification and casualty of distribution models

Troster, Víctor Emilio
Fonte: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid Publicador: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.12%
Many important economic and finance hypotheses are investigated through testing the specification of restrictions on the conditional distribution of a time series, such as conditional goodness-of- t (Box and Pierce (1970)), conditional quantiles (Koenker and Machado (1999)), and distributional Granger non-causality (Taamouti, Bouezmarni, and El Ghouch, 2014). This PhD Thesis contributes to the study of specification and causality tests that provide a more flexible and detailed approach to evaluate economic relationships, which are useful in many relevant empirical applications. In the first chapter, we propose a practical and consistent specification test of conditional distribution models for dependent data in a very general setting. Our approach covers conditional distribution models possibly indexed by function-valued parameters, which allows for a wide range of important empirical applications, such as the linear quantile auto-regressive, the CAViaR, and the distributional regression models. Our test statistic is based on a comparison between the estimated parametric and the empirical distribution functions. The new specification test (i) is valid for general linear and nonlinear dynamic models under parameter estimation error...

Oil Price Volatility, Economic Growth and the Hedging Role of Renewable Energy

Rentschler, Jun E.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
35.67%
This paper investigates the adverse effects of oil price volatility on economic activity and the extent to which countries can hedge against such effects by using renewable energy. By considering the Realized Volatility of oil prices, rather than following the standard approach of considering oil price shocks in levels, the effects of factor price uncertainty on economic activity are analyzed. Sample countries represent developed and developing, oil importing and exporting and service/industry-based economies (United States, Japan, Germany, South Korea, India, and Malaysia) and thus complement the standard literature's analysis of Western OECD countries. In a vector auto-regressive setting, Granger causality tests, impulse response functions, and variance decompositions show that oil price volatility has more-adverse effects in all sample countries than oil price shocks alone can explain. The paper finds that the sensitivity to oil price volatility varies widely across countries and discusses various factors which may determine the level of sensitivity (such as sectoral composition and the energy mix). This implies that the standard approach of solely considering net oil importer-exporter status is not sufficient. Simulations of volatility shocks in hypothetical energy mixes (with increased renewable shares) illustrate the potential economic benefits resulting from efforts to disconnect the macroeconomy from volatile commodity markets. It is concluded that expanding renewable energy can in principle reduce an economy's vulnerability to oil price volatility...

Eficiência informacional no mercado de ações do Brasil

Guttler, Caio Nor
Fonte: Florianópolis, SC Publicador: Florianópolis, SC
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: 95 f.| grafs., tabs.
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.01%
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Centro Sócio-Econômico. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia; Este trabalho se propõe a testar a hipótese de eficiência no mercado de ações brasileiro com base nas informações divulgadas sobre variáveis macroeconômicas do país, mediante a análise de cointegração e teste de causalidade de Granger. Em geral, na literatura, os países desenvolvidos são classificados como eficientes, enquanto os em desenvolvimentos, como ineficientes. Além dos testes de cointegração, que apresentam controvérsias quanto a sua eficácia em testar a eficiência de mercado, e de causalidade de Granger padrão, foram realizados os testes de causalidade de Granger com mecanismo de correção de erro (MCE) e pela metodologia de Toda e Yamamoto (1995). Para contornar o problema de defasagem na divulgação das informações todos estes testes foram estimados também a partir das expectativas das séries, obtidas por meio de modelos de previsão. Para verificar a relação com o Ibovespa foram utilizadas nos testes as seguintes variáveis macroeconômicas: o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), a produção industrial, a taxa de inflação (medida pelo IPCA), o risco país, a taxa Selic...

Neural Networks with Non-Uniform Embedding and Explicit Validation Phase to Assess Granger Causality

Montalto, Alessandro; Stramaglia, Sebastiano; Faes, Luca; Tessitore, Giovanni; Prevete, Roberto; Marinazzo, Daniele
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.99%
A challenging problem when studying a dynamical system is to find the interdependencies among its individual components. Several algorithms have been proposed to detect directed dynamical influences between time series. Two of the most used approaches are a model-free one (transfer entropy) and a model-based one (Granger causality). Several pitfalls are related to the presence or absence of assumptions in modeling the relevant features of the data. We tried to overcome those pitfalls using a neural network approach in which a model is built without any a priori assumptions. In this sense this method can be seen as a bridge between model-free and model-based approaches. The experiments performed will show that the method presented in this work can detect the correct dynamical information flows occurring in a system of time series. Additionally we adopt a non-uniform embedding framework according to which only the past states that actually help the prediction are entered into the model, improving the prediction and avoiding the risk of overfitting. This method also leads to a further improvement with respect to traditional Granger causality approaches when redundant variables (i.e. variables sharing the same information about the future of the system) are involved. Neural networks are also able to recognize dynamics in data sets completely different from the ones used during the training phase.

Causal Non-Linear Financial Networks

Fiedor, Paweł
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 18/07/2014 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
35.82%
In our previous study we have presented an approach to studying lead--lag effect in financial markets using information and network theories. Methodology presented there, as well as previous studies using Pearson's correlation for the same purpose, approached the concept of lead--lag effect in a naive way. In this paper we further investigate the lead--lag effect in financial markets, this time treating them as causal effects. To incorporate causality in a manner consistent with our previous study, that is including non-linear interdependencies, we base this study on a generalisation of Granger causality in the form of transfer entropy, or equivalently a special case of conditional (partial) mutual information. This way we are able to produce networks of stocks, where directed links represent causal relationships for a specific time lag. We apply this procedure to stocks belonging to the NYSE 100 index for various time lags, to investigate the short-term causality on this market, and to comment on the resulting Bonferroni networks.; Comment: 11 pages, 9 figures, submitted to Financial Risk & Network Theory seminar

Dominância fiscal ou dominância monetária no Brasil? Uma análise de causalidade

Gadelha, Sérgio Ricardo de Brito; Divino, José Angelo
Fonte: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de RP Publicador: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de RP
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; ; ; Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 01/12/2008 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.98%
The aim of this study is to verify whether there is fiscal or monetary dominance in the Brazilian economy in the period of the post-Real plan. We investigate the long run equilibrium relationship and bivariate and multivariate Granger causality among the variables nominal interest rate, debt to GDP ratio, primary surplus to GDP ratio, real exchange rate and risk premium. The results have shown Brazil as a country under monetary dominance regime, according to Sargent and Wallace (1981) definition. In addition, the model proposed by Blanchard (2004) does not find empirical support in the Brazilian economy.; O objetivo deste estudo é verificar se existe dominância fiscal ou monetária na economia brasileira no período pós-Plano Real. Investiga-se a relação de equilíbrio de longo prazo e a causalidade de Granger bivariada e multivariada entre as variáveis taxa nominal de juros, relação dívida/PIB, relação superávit primário/PIB, taxa real de câmbio e o prêmio de risco. Os resultados sugerem que a economia brasileira encontra-se sob regime de dominância monetária, segundo as definições propostas por Sargent e Wallace (1981). Além disso, o modelo proposto por Blanchard (2004) não encontra apoio empírico no período analisado.

Risco soberano brasileiro, crises internacionais e fluxos de investimentos estrangeiros em carteiras de ações; El riesgo soberano de brasil, crisis internacionales y flujos de inversión extranjera en cartera; Brazilian sovereign risk, international crises and foreign portfolio investment flows

Callado, Antônio André Cunha; Moller, Horst Dieter
Fonte: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade Publicador: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; ; ; ; ; ; Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 01/06/2009 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.14%
O objetivo deste artigo é descrever o comportamento do risco soberano brasileiro de 1995 a 2005, para avaliar a influência das crises financeiras internacionais sobre o risco soberano brasileiro nesse período. A influência das crises financeiras internacionais é analisada por métodos econométricos. O risco soberano pode ser modelado econometricamente mediante regressões com variáveis explicativas, tais como IBOVESPA, taxa de juros SELIC de curto prazo, reservas internacionais brasileiras, taxa de câmbio do Real em relação ao dólar americano e fluxos de investimentos estrangeiros para portfólios de ações e renda fixa. As primeiras quatro variáveis são usadas para a construção de um índice de pressão do mercado de câmbio que identifique e mensure períodos de crise financeira internacional e modele suas influências sobre o risco soberano. Outro modelo explica as mudanças no risco soberano em razão do índice de pressão do mercado de câmbio e dos fluxos de investimentos estrangeiros em portfólios de ações, obtendo bons resultados em uma projeção dinâmica sobre a variável dependente risco soberano brasileiro. Dados mensais foram usados em um teste de causalidade de Granger para identificar relações defasadas. Os resultados mostraram que as variáveis de mercado são determinadas simultaneamente...

Modelling the rand and commodity prices: A Granger causality and cointegration analysis

Schaling,Eric; Ndlovu,Xolani; Alagidede,Paul
Fonte: South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences Publicador: South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/01/2014 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.86%
This paper examines the 'commodity currency' hypothesis of the Rand, that is, the postulate that the currency moves in line with commodity prices, and analyses the associated causality using nominal data between 1996 and 2010. We address both the short run and long run relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates. We find that while the levels of the series of both assets are difference stationary, they are not cointegrated. Further, we find the two variables are negatively related, with strong and significant causality running from commodity prices to the exchange rate and not vice versa, implying exogeneity in the determination of commodity prices with respect to the nominal exchange rate. The strength of the relationship is significantly weaker than other OECD commodity currencies. We surmise that the relationship is dynamic over time owing to the portfolio-rebalance argument and the Commodity Terms of Trade (CTT) effect and, in the absence of an error correction mechanism, this disconnect may be prolonged. For commodity and currency market participants, this implies that while futures and forward commodity prices may be useful leading indicators of future currency movements, the price risk management strategies may need to be recalibrated over time.