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Finding a Balance between Growth and Vulnerability Trade-Offs : Lessons from Emerging Europe and the CIS

Ghosh, Swati; Sugawara, Naotaka; Zalduendo, Juan
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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46.13%
This paper examines the growth patterns of emerging Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries prior to the global financial crisis. The aim is to draw lessons on what policies can best position these countries going forward to enjoy growth without a buildup in macro and financial vulnerability. Cluster analysis is used to classify these countries across the growth and vulnerability dimensions; namely, a classification into low or high growth outcomes, each of which may occur with low or high vulnerability features. The vulnerability indicators used are multifaceted, covering both the domestic and the external dimensions that have been identified in previous studies as being good indicators of likelihood of crisis -- itself understood as multidimensional. Based on multinomial logit regressions, the initial conditions and the economic policies that might affect the probabilities of being in each of the four possible cluster combinations are examined. Many (if not most) of the countries in the sample experienced very large capital inflows relative to their gross domestic product prior to the crisis...

Trade Crisis and Recovery : Restructuring of Global Value Chains

Milberg, William; Winkler, Deborah
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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36.34%
The recent large and rapid slowdown in economic activity has resulted in even larger and more rapid declines in international trade. As world trade is set to rebound, this paper addresses three questions: (i) Will trade volumes rebound in a symmetric fashion as world economic growth rebounds? (ii) Will the crisis result in a change in the structure of trade, and in particular will it lead to a reversal of the pattern of more diversified sourcing and thus to a consolidation of global value chains? (iii) What policies can improve the prospects for developing country growth in the event that trade volumes do not rebound symmetrically and there is a consolidation of some global value chains?

Assessing the Direct Economic Effects of Reallocating Irrigation Water to Alternative Uses Concepts and an Application

Andriamananjara, Soamiely; Brenton, Paul; von Uexkull, Jan Erik; Walkenhorst, Peter
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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36.4%
This study discusses potential economic implications for Nigeria of an Economic Partnership Agreement with the European Union. It uses the World Bank s Tariff Reform Impact Simulation Tool to assess the effects of preferential tariff liberalization with respect to the European Union. The results suggest that the impact of an Economic Partnership Agreement on total imports into Nigeria will be slight. This is in part because the Agreement will likely allow the most protected sectors to be excluded from liberalization, and also because where substantial tariffs are involved much of the increase in imports from the European Union will occur at the expense of other suppliers of imports. It is this trade diversion, arising from the discriminatory nature of the EPA, which generates a negative welfare impact of the tariff reforms. One way for Nigeria to limit these losses is to pursue non-preferential trade liberalization before implementing an EPA. The paper looks at the large number of import bans in Nigeria and argues that the positive impact on welfare of removing these import bans is likely to be substantial. Their removal would undermine a major reason for cross border smuggling and pave the way for a return to normal regional trade flows. The paper shows how an Economic Partnership Agreement presents an opportunity for accelerating the reforms that are needed to support a strategy to increase regional and global trade integration. Such an agreement is more likely to have positive and significant impacts when integrated into a comprehensive strategy toward competitiveness and alleviation of the supply constraints that have stifled the impact of previous trade agreements. Key issues that should be addressed include liberalization and regulatory strengthening of services sectors to ensure that all firms in Nigeria have access to efficiently produced backbone services and initiatives to address the country s poor trade logistics performance.

World Food Prices and Human Development: Policy Simulations for Archetype Low-Income Countries

Lofgren, Hans
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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36.37%
In recent years, world food prices have increased and fluctuated widely. This paper explores the impact of international food prices and domestic policies on Millennium Development Goal (MDG) and macro indicators for two archetype low-income countries, a net food exporter and a net food importer, using Maquette for MDG Simulations (MAMS), a Computable General Equilibrium model. The simulations, which cover the period 2011-2025, indicate that the size of positive (negative) effects on macro and MDG indicators of a food export (import) price increase depend on the initial gross domestic product share for food exports (imports), leaving countries that are heavily involved in international food trade more exposed to international shocks. Given relatively low elasticity estimates, the impact of changes in food prices on undernourishment are relatively marginal. Flexible responses (in terms of production shares, whether output is exported or sold at home, and whether domestic demanders buy imports or domestic output) enable countries to benefit from or be less hurt by price changes. The case for policy responses to higher import prices is stronger for the net food importer. An untargeted food subsidy...

Import Protection, Business Cycles, and Exchange Rates : Evidence from the Great Recession

Bown, Chad P.; Crowley, Meredith A.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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46.42%
This research estimates the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on import protection policies over 1988:Q1-2010:Q4 for the United States, European Union, and three other industrialized economies. First, estimates on a pre-Great Recession sample provide evidence of three key relationships for the US and EU. Increases in domestic unemployment rates and real appreciations in bilateral exchange rates led to substantial increases in antidumping and related forms of import protection. Furthermore, economies historically imposed these bilateral import restrictions on trading partners going through their own periods of weak economic growth. Second, estimates from the pre-Great Recession model predict a major trade policy response during 2008:Q4-2010:Q4, given the realized macroeconomic shocks. New US and EU trade barriers were projected to cover up to an additional 15 percentage points of nonoil imports, well above the baseline level of 2-3 percent of import coverage immediately preceding the crisis. Third, re-estimating the model on data from the Great Recession period illustrates why the realized trade policy response differed from model predictions based on historical data. While exchange rate movements played an important role in limiting new import protection...

Emerging Economies, Trade Policy, and Macroeconomic Shocks

Bown, Chad P.; Crowley, Meredith A.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.36%
This paper estimates the impact of aggregate fluctuations on the time-varying trade policies of 13 major emerging economies over 1989-2010. By 2010, these World Trade Organization member countries collectively accounted for 21 percent of world merchandise imports and 22 percent of world gross domestic product. The paper examines determinants of carefully constructed, bilateral measures of new import restrictions on products arising through the temporary trade barrier (TTB) policies of antidumping, safeguards, and countervailing duties. The approach explicitly addresses changes to the institutional environment facing these emerging economies as they joined the WTO and adopted disciplines to restrain their application of other trade policies, such as applied import tariffs. The paper presents evidence of a counter-cyclical relationship between macroeconomic shocks and new TTB import restrictions in addition to an important role for fluctuations in bilateral real exchange rates. Furthermore, for the subset of major Group of 20 emerging economies...

Implications of a Changing China for Brazil : A New Window of Opportunity?

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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36.35%
As Brazil and China have become two of the largest global economies, they have also become increasingly connected. Three decades of fast-paced growth and structural change have turned China into the world s second-largest economy and have transformed it into an upper-middle income country. Brazil, which had experienced its own episode of high growth between 1965 and 1974, has also become one of the largest economies. Over the last decade, Brazil and China have developed increasingly close linkages, which has come as no surprise given the scale of their economies, the complementary structure of resource endowments as well as the differences between the two countries in the structure of production and demand. This report examines how structural change in China is expected to present new opportunities and challenges for Brazil to enhance its global position and energize growth. Building on recent work (World Bank and Development Research Center, 2013), this report identifies three potential longer-term transformations of the Chinese economy structurally slower growth...

Rwanda Economic Update, No. 7 : Managing Uncertainty for Growth and Poverty Reduction

World Bank Group
Fonte: Kigali, Rwanda Publicador: Kigali, Rwanda
Português
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46.33%
The Rwanda Economic Update reports on and synthesizes recent economic developments and places them in a medium-term and global context. It analyzes the implications of these developments and policies for the outlook for Rwanda s economy. Rwanda s economic growth recovered in the first three quarters of 2014. The economy grew 7.1 percent. Faster GDP growth reflected higher growth of the services sector, at 9.1 percent, up from 5.4 percent in 2013, when the economy suffered from the lagged impact of the 2012 aid shortfall. The first section on macroeconomic issues of this edition of the Rwanda Economic Update examines two key questions: What led to the growth recovery in the first three quarters of 2014, and what are growth prospects for 2014, 2015, and 2016? The growth recovery mainly reflected increased government expenditure, which boosted domestic demand such as private consumption and investment. The expansion of domestic demand was partially offset by lower external demand for Rwanda s traditional commodities. Higher government expenditure contributed to growth recovery in the services sector through government consumption of private services. Inflation declined throughout 2014, reflecting lower growth in import prices. The recent decline in oil prices is expected to contribute not only to lower inflation but also to more stable exchange rate...

Liberia : Strategic Policy Options for Medium Term Growth and Development

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Poverty Study; Economic & Sector Work
Português
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46.2%
This paper explores Liberia's policy options in support of the development of a Medium-Term Growth and Development Strategy (MTGDS) for 2013-2017 and its national vision, Liberia Rising 2030. At issue is the mismatch between available fiscal space and the enormous development needs that the government must resolve as it prepares to transform the economy into a middle-income country by 2040. This dilemma calls for the new administration to make trade-offs among various priorities if it is to achieve its aspirations. For this purpose, a Liberian version of a single-country Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, MAMS (Maquette for Millennium Development Goal, or MDG simulations), was developed and informed by analytical studies as well as sector strategies prepared in support of Liberia's MTGDS. This paper examines the likely impacts on macroeconomic and social indicators of alternate strategic policy scenarios. A base scenario (designed to represent a central case for the evolution of Liberia's economy up to 2030) was first established...

Rwanda Economic Update, December 2013 : Seizing Opportunities for Growth

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.32%
Rwanda's economic growth slowed in the first half of 2013. Weighed by a slowdown in domestic demand, the economy grew at a modest rate. Decelerating GDP growth mirrored the low growth of services and was the lowest half-year growth rate since 2010, when the domestic economy was hard hit by the combination of the global financial crisis and a domestic credit crunch. This edition of the Rwanda Economic Update examines three key issues: 1) the cause for the economic slowdown; 2) whether the economic slowdown is temporary, or the beginning of further deceleration, and the forecasted growth for 2014; and 3) policy options for the authorities.

Malaysia Economic Monitor, November 2009; Repositioning for Growth

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.26%
Malaysia is emerging from one of the worst export slumps in its economic history as manufacturing and exports have started growing again. With East Asia leading the recovery and advanced economies showing progressive improvement, the Malaysian economy is projected to grow at 4.1 percent in 2010, following a contraction of 2.3 percent in 2009. The medium-term outlook remains promising with growth reaching 5.6 and 5.9 percent in 2011 and 2012, respectively, though that will depend on sustained global recovery from the crisis. The overriding medium-term challenge is for the Malaysian economy to join the select group of high-income countries. Malaysia has experienced solid growth over the last decades, but has relied on an economic model predominantly based on capital accumulation, although private investment rates never recovered from their 20 percentage point fall after the Asian 1997/98 crisis and are now among the lowest in the region. For Malaysia to climb the next step up the income ladder, it needs to focus on improving the investment climate to raise investment rates and focus on productivity growth. Against this backdrop...

Trade Policy Flexibilities and Turkey : Tariffs, Antidumping, Safeguards, and WTO Dispute Settlement

Bown, Chad P.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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36.37%
Trade policy commitments to lower import tariffs and to maintain tariffs at low levels entail short and long-run political-economic costs and benefits. Empirical work examining the relationship between such commitments and the exercise of trade policy flexibilities is still relatively nascent, especially for emerging economies. This paper provides a rich, empirically-based assessment of ways that Turkey exercised trade policy flexibilities during the global economic crisis of 2008-11. First, and despite multilateral and customs union commitments that might limit changes to applied tariffs, Turkey made changes to both its applied Most Favored Nation and preferential tariffs that cumulatively affect nearly 9 percent of manufacturing imports and 10 percent of import product lines. Second, Turkey's cumulative application of temporary trade barrier (TTB) policies -- antidumping, safeguards and countervailing duties -- are estimated to impact by 2011 an additional 4 percent of imports and 6 percent of product lines. Other surprising results on Turkey's use of flexibilities include: extending the duration of previously imposed antidumping and safeguards beyond expected removal dates...

Kyrgyz Republic : Growth Rebounds, Risks Remain

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.22%
The Kyrgyz Republic's three party coalition has tackled a number of events during 2013, including mayoral elections in the country's biggest cities Bishkek and Osh road blockages around Kumtor, the country's largest gold mine; as well as tense negotiations on the future of the mine; and clashes in the south of the country. The government has navigated through these difficult times, quashing a motion of no confidence in parliament. An agreement between the Kyrgyz Republic and Centerra Inc. the majority stakeholder in Kumtor was accepted by parliament in early 2014. A surge in gold output and solid growth in the non-gold sectors contributed to an impressive 10.5 percent expansion of the Kyrgyz economy in 2013. Smaller increases in food prices than in recent years, and relatively stable energy prices helped bring inflation down. Expenditure controls and robust revenue outturns have brought the fiscal deficit down to 3.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Preliminary estimates suggest the trade deficit and current account deficit remained high in 2013. Medium term growth is expected to moderate to 5 percent...

Kenya Economic Update, December 2014, No. 11; Anchoring High Growth

World Bank Group
Fonte: World Bank, Nairobi Publicador: World Bank, Nairobi
Tipo: Report; Economic & Sector Work; Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling
Português
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46.12%
This is the eleventh edition of the Kenya Economic Update. The special focus of this update examines the structural factors underpinning the poor performance of the manufacturing sector. Drawing on recent firm-level data from the 2010 Industrial Census and the 2013 Enterprise Survey. It investigates the extent to which the sector's lack of dynamism reflects problems in Kenya's business environment, which compares poorly to regional neighbors' on several manufacturing-relevant dimensions. The report has four main messages: First, Kenya begins 2015 in a sound economic position. After growing an estimated 5.4 percent in 2014, its economy is poised to be among the fastest growing in the region, with growth projected at 6.0 percent in 2015, 6.6 percent in 2016, and 7.0 percent in 2017. Second, the external sector remains weak and vulnerable, as import growth continue to outpace export growth and short-term flows finance the current account deficit. The large deficit points to underlying structural weaknesses in Kenya's economy...

Import Dynamics and Demands for Protection

Hillberry, Russell; McCalman, Phillip
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.29%
What kinds of changes in foreign competition lead domestic industries to seek import protection? To address this question this paper uses detailed monthly U.S. import data to investigate changes in import composition during a 24-month window immediately preceding the filing of a petition for protection. A decomposition methodology allows a comparison of imports from two groups of countries supplying the same product: those that are named in the petition and those that are not. The same decomposition can be applied to products quite similar to the imports in question, but not subject to a petition. The results suggest that industries typically seek protection when faced with a specific pattern of shocks. First, a persistent positive relative supply shock favors imports from named countries. Second, a negative demand shock hits imports from all sources just prior to domestic industries' petition for protection. The relative supply shock is a broad one; it applies both to named commodities and to the comparison product group. The import demand shock...

Tajikistan : Strong Growth, Rising Risks

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.23%
Tajikistan's economy grew at higher-than-projected rate of 7.4 percent in 2013 on the back of record high inflow of remittances. High remittances fueled private consumption and investment. Meanwhile, weaker external demand and lower prices for aluminum and cotton adversely affected exports and resulted in a widening of the current account deficit. Inflation was reduced to a record low because of the limited increase in food prices and stable exchange rate. The fiscal deficit widened because of higher investment expenditures and a reduction in nontax revenues. The overall fiscal picture is likely to be different than official statistics suggests because of soft budget constraints on state-owned enterprises, continued directed lending by banks, and other quasi-fiscal risks. The economy remains vulnerable to shocks, and the fiscal and debt position remains weak because of the country's remittance-driven growth model, narrow export base, high dependence on concessional financing, and large infrastructure. In addition...

Demand Growth versus Market Share Gains : Decomposing World Manufacturing Import Growth

Aksoy, M. Ataman; Ng, Francis
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.4%
This paper decomposes manufacturing import growth rates in a selected set of large industrial and developing countries (five industrial and eight developing) and measures the relative contributions of domestic demand and market share changes for two separate periods 1991/92 - 2001/02 and 2001/02 - 2007/08. It also shows the shares of imports both from the rest of the world and from developing countries for aggregate and three-digit manufacturing sectors. Import growth is much higher during the 2000s driven by higher demand growth rates. While market share changes explain most of the growth during the 1990s, its contribution is relatively smaller during the 2000s. Imports from developing countries have grown much faster both in industrial and developing country markets driven primarily by market share changes. However, more than half of market share gains by developing countries are caused by the exports of China, which accounts for more than 70 percent of market share gains of developing countries in the sample countries during the 2000s. Despite rapid growth...

Indonesia Economic Quarterly, December 2013 : Slower Growth, High Risks

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.38%
The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main aims. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia's economy, and places these in a longer-term and global context. Based on these developments, and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly updates the outlook for Indonesia's economy and social welfare. Second, the IEQ provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of Indonesia's medium-term development challenges. This document summarizes the findings of the IEQ for the last quarter of 2013. The final quarter has seen the continuing adjustment of the Indonesian economy to more subdued commodity prices and tighter external financing conditions, and to the related pressures on external balances. Policies have responded, particularly through tighter monetary conditions, the currency has depreciated substantially in real terms, and investment spending and output growth have weakened. These developments are broadly supportive of continued macroeconomic stability...

World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update 2012, Volume 1 : Capturing New Sources of Growth

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.23%
Growth in developing East Asia and the Pacific remained strong in 2011, although it slowed from its post-crisis peaks. Strong domestic demand offset weaker external demand from the United States and Western Europe. Looking ahead, the external environment is likely to remain weak. The best prospects for the region to maintain high rates of growth, job creation, and poverty reduction are through rebalancing towards domestic demand and investing in productivity increases and further international integration. The region remains vulnerable to the continued uncertainty in Europe through trade and financial linkages. Although last December's fiscal pact and liquidity support from the European Central Bank helped stabilize financial markets, recent political events and market developments point to continued challenges. Renewed market volatility and a further slowdown in European economies cannot be ruled out. The European Union (EU), along with the US and Japan, accounts for over 40 percent of the region's direct export shipments and an estimated 60 percent if intraregional trade linked to production networks is taken into account. A serious disruption in the EU would also have knock-on effects on East Asia's exports and growth by lowering growth in other regions...

The Role of Imports for Exporter Performance in Peru

Pierola, Martha Denisse; Fernandes, Ana Margarida; Farole, Thomas
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Working Paper; Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.42%
Using highly disaggregated firm-level customs transaction data for imports and exports in Peru over the 2000–2012 period, this paper explores the relationship between imports of intermediate inputs and firm export performance. The paper shows that greater use, variety, and quality of imported intermediate inputs is significantly correlated with higher exports, faster export growth, greater diversification of export markets, and higher quality exports (as measured by relative unit prices) at the firm level. This relationship is robust and persistent to controls for unobserved firm heterogeneity and year fixed effects. The use of imported inputs is also associated with higher productivity at the firm level. Considering the relationship between specific trade policy measures and the import performance of those exporters that are direct importers, the analysis shows that those exposed to higher tariffs and nontariff measures import less in total and exhibit lower import variety. The use of the advanced clearance procedure as the modality to clear customs for imports is favorable to the import performance of exporter-importers...