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Inflation targeting and the sacrifice ratio

GONÇALVES, Carlos Eduardo S.; CARVALHO, Alexandre
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.32%
In this paper we show that economies that adopted the inflation targeting (IT) regime have been able to "disinflate" less costly. The effect of IT on the sacrifice ratio is not only statistically significant, but also economically very important. This result is all the more interesting given the lack ofrobust empirical evidence in favor of IT. By significantly reducing the short-run costs of disinflation, IT may render the attainability of lower inflation levels politically more feasible.; Neste artigo mostramos que os países que adotaram o regime de Metas de Inflação (IT) lograram desinflar suas economias com menores custso. O efeito da dummy IT é estatística e economicamente bem significativo. Ao reduzir significativamente os custos das desinflações, este sistema pode tornar níveis mais baixos de inflação politicamente mais factíveis.

Inflation targeting and macroeconomic stability in a Post Keynesian economy

LIMA, Gilberto Tadeu; SETTERFIELD, Mark
Fonte: M E SHARPE INC Publicador: M E SHARPE INC
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.4%
This paper examines the compatibility of inflation targeting with an economy that is Post Keynesian in character. We show that in a Post Keynesian environment, policymakers can both set and achieve an inflation target without adverse consequences for the real economy, as long as an appropriate policy mix is chosen. The latitude that policymakers have in making this choice is investigated. One of our key results is that orthodox policy regimes do not provide appropriate policy mixes. Indeed, the more orthodox the policy regime becomes, the less viable is inflation targeting in a Post Keynesian economy.

Inflation Targeting Matters: Evidence from OECD Economies` Sacrifice Ratios

GONCALVES, Carlos Eduardo S.; CARVALHO, Alexandre
Fonte: WILEY-BLACKWELL PUBLISHING, INC Publicador: WILEY-BLACKWELL PUBLISHING, INC
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.38%
Using data from OECD economies, we show that inflation targeters suffered smaller output losses during disinflations when compared to nontargeters. We also study why some countries choose to inflation target while others do not and find that higher average inflation and smaller debt levels render the adoption of the regime more likely. Applying Heckman`s procedure to control for selection bias does not alter the link between inflation targeting and less costly disinflations.

Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say?

GONCALVES, Carlos Eduardo S.; SALLES, Joao M.
Fonte: ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV Publicador: ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.49%
In a recent thought-provoking paper, Ball and Sheridan [Ball, L., Sheridan, N., 2005. Does inflation targeting matter? In: Bernanke, B.S., Woodford, M. (Eds.), The Inflation-Targeting Debate, University of Chicago Press] show that the available evidence for a group of developed economies does not lend credence to the belief that adopting an inflation targeting regime (IT) was instrumental in bringing inflation and inflation volatility down. Here, we extend Ball and Sheridan`s analysis for a subset of 36 emerging market economies and find that, for them, the story is quite different. Compared to non-targeters, developing countries adopting the IT regime not only experienced greater drops in inflation, but also in growth volatility, thus corroborating the view that the regime`s ""constrained flexibility"" to deal with adverse shocks delivered concrete welfare gains. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

O regime de metas inflacionárias e sua adequação ao caso brasileiro: os custos de manutenção do regime; Inflation targeting and its adequacy to the brazilian case: the costs of maintenance of the regimen

Biondi, Roberta Loboda
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 19/05/2006 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.62%
O regime de metas de inflação é uma estratégia de política monetária utilizada por inúmeros países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento que tem por objetivo ancorar as expectativas dos agentes econômicos quanto ao comportamento futuro da taxa de inflação. De acordo com a literatura sobre o tema, o regime de metas inflacionárias além de provocar efeitos positivos sobre a taxa de inflação das economias que o adotam, tende também a provocar melhoras sobre o comportamento do produto. O objetivo desta dissertação é analisar empiricamente os impactos da adoção do sistema de metas de inflação para a taxa de inflação e crescimento real do produto dos países, diferenciando os impactos entre os países desenvolvidos e os em desenvolvimento. Utilizando o grupo de países que adotam metas de inflação como o grupo de tratamento e os países que não adotam como grupo de controle, dois procedimentos metodológicos foram realizados: estimação por diferenças em diferenças e análise em painel. Os resultados da estimação por diferenças em diferenças não se mostraram robustos e assim a análise em painel foi realizada. Os resultados demonstram que a adoção do sistema de metas inflacionárias produz impactos significativos para a inflação e crescimento do produto dos países que o adotam. Para o caso dos países desenvolvidos a adoção do sistema de metas tende a elevar a taxa média de inflação assim como o crescimento do produto. Para os países em desenvolvimento...

Cláusulas de escape para a política monetária num regime de inflation targeting

Moreira, José Miguel Marques
Fonte: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão Publicador: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em /04/2002 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.6%
Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira; De entre os arranjos monetários que foram surgindo na literatura económica como soluções para o problema do enviesamento inflacionista associado à inconsistência temporal da política monetária, o regime de Inflation Targeting corresponde seguramente ao que mais adeptos tem reunido nos últimos anos. Embora com um desenho adequado um Inflation Targeting possa ser dotado de um razoável grau de flexibilidade, o facto dessa opção envolver quase sempre um trade-off entre a credibilidade e a flexibilidade da política monetária, e o facto do regime atribuir, por natureza, bastante relevância à estabilidade dos preços (e, portanto, à necessidade de manter uma imagem anti-inflacionista), levam a que a ocorrência de choques da oferta particularmente significativos possa causar grandes dificuldades ao regime para lidar com os aspectos da economia real. Isto levanta a questão acerca da utilidade da existência de cláusulas de excepção no âmbito destes arranjos de política monetária. Após mostrar que existem regimes de Inflation Targeting que têm estatutariamente previsto (embora de forma pouco explícita) a possibilidade de alterar a forma como a política monetária é normalmente conduzida sempre que ocorram determinadas circunstâncias...

Inflation targeting and the sacrifice ratio

Gonçalves,Carlos Eduardo S.; Carvalho,Alexandre
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/06/2008 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.32%
In this paper we show that economies that adopted the inflation targeting (IT) regime have been able to "disinflate" less costly. The effect of IT on the sacrifice ratio is not only statistically significant, but also economically very important. This result is all the more interesting given the lack ofrobust empirical evidence in favor of IT. By significantly reducing the short-run costs of disinflation, IT may render the attainability of lower inflation levels politically more feasible.

A note on inflation targeting and economic growth in Brazil

Libânio,Gilberto
Fonte: Editora 34 Publicador: Editora 34
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/03/2010 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.36%
This paper analyzes the relation between monetary policy and economic performance in Brazil during the period 1999-2006. In particular, it discusses the growth effects of the inflation targeting regime through its effects on aggregate demand. It is argued that monetary policy under IT reacts in a procyclical and asymmetric way to fluctuations in economic activity (too "tight" during recessions, not so "loose" during expansions). Such pattern may generate a downward bias in aggregate demand, with negative real effects on output growth and employment. Our results suggest that monetary policy has been procyclical and asymmetrical in Brazil under inflation targeting. The main economic policy implication of this study is that central banks should consider more seriously the real effects of monetary policy on output and employment.

Do Inflation-Targeting Central Banks Implicitly Target the Price Level?

RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J.
Fonte: Université de Montréal, Département de sciences économiques Publicador: Université de Montréal, Département de sciences économiques
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.56%
This paper reports graphical and statistical evidence that the inflation targeting regimes in Canada and the UK - but not in Australia, New Zealand, or Sweden - actually resemble price-level targeting. In particular, the price level closely tracks the path implied by the inflation target, and the time-series predictions of the "bygones-are-bygones" version of inflation targeting are rejected by the data in favor of those implied by price-level targeting. These results indicate heterogeneity in the actual application of inflation targeting across countries and, for Canada and the UK, imply that the characterization of inflation targeting as a policy where shocks are accommodated is at odds with the data. Moreover, up to extent that their current policies already resemble price-level targeting, the welfare gains of replacing inflation with (explicit) price-level targeting are likely to be small.

From Monetary Targeting to Inflation Targeting : Lessons from the Industrialized Countries

Mishkin, Frederic S.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.69%
The author examines changes in monetary policy in industrial countries by evaluating, and providing case studies of monetary targeting, and inflation targeting. Inflation targeting has successfully controlled inflation, with some qualifications. It weakens the effects of inflationary shocks, as examples from Canada, Sweden, and the United Kingdom show. It can promote growth, and does not lead to increased fluctuations in output. But inflation targets do not necessarily reduce the cost of reducing inflation. The key to success of inflation targeting, is its stress on transparency, and communication with the public. Inflation targeting increases accountability, which helps ameliorate the time-inconsistency trap (in which the central bank tries to expand output, and employment in the short run, by pursuing overly expansionary monetary policy). Time-inconsistency is more likely to come from political pressures on the central bank, to engage in overly expansionary monetary policy. A key advantage of inflation targeting...

Inflation targeting in India: issues and prospects

Jha, Raghbendra
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 1043580 bytes; 354 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.43%
Inflation targeting (henceforth IT) has emerged as a significant monetary policy framework in both developed and transition economies. It has been in place for a decade or more in a number of countries — with around 20 central banks adopting it as their basic monetary policy framework. Some authors have argued that for transition economies undergoing sustained financial liberalization and integration in world financial markets IT is an attractive monetary policy framework. Consequently there is some pressure for such economies to adopt IT as a core element in their monetary policy frameworks. The present paper evaluates the case for IT in India. It begins with stating, almost from first principles, the objectives of monetary policy in India. I argue that inflation control cannot be an exclusive concern of monetary policy in a country such as India with a substantial poverty problem. The rationales for IT is then spelt out as are some nuances of the practical implementation of IT. The paper provides some evidence on the effects of IT in developed and transition economies and argues that although IT may have been responsible for maintaining a low inflation regime it has not brought down the inflation rate itself substantially. Further...

Does Inflation Targeting Matter for Output Growth? Evidence from Industrial and Emerging Economies

Mollick, André Varella; Torres, René Cabral; Carneiro, Francisco G.
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.6%
This paper examines the effects of inflation targeting on industrial and emerging economies' output growth over the "globalization years" of 1986-2004. Controlling for trade openness and two indicators of financial globalization, the authors find systematic positive and significant effects of inflation targeting on real output growth. In dynamic models, the findings show strong output persistence in industrial economies, in which partial and full inflation targeting regimes have a positive long-run impact on growth. In emerging markets, only full inflation targeting policies have any output effect in the long-run. The results suggest that strict inflation targeting is needed to make the discipline effect of the disinflation process outweigh the output costs of promoting high interest rates to attract capital flows in a global world. These findings are robust to the treatment of endogenous globalization measures.

Monetary Policy under Flexible Exchange Rates : An Introduction to Inflation Targeting

Agenor, Pierre-Richard
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.66%
In the past few years, a number of central banks have adopted inflation targeting for monetary policy. The author provides an introduction to inflation targeting, with an emphasis on analytical issues, and the recent experience of middle- and high-income developing countries (which have relatively low inflation to begin with, and reasonably well-functioning financial markets). After presenting a formal analytical framework, the author discusses the basic requirements for inflation targeting, and how such a regime differs from money, and exchange rate targeting regimes. After discussing the operational framework for inflation targeting (including the price index to monitor the time horizon, the forecasting procedures, and the role of asset prices), he examines recent experiences with inflation targets, providing new evidence on the convexity of the Phillips curve for six developing countries. His conclusions: Inflation targeting is a flexible policy framework that allows a country's central bank to exercise some degree of discretion, without putting in jeopardy its main objective of maintaining stable prices. In middle- and high-income developing economies that can refrain from implicit exchange rate targeting, it can improve the design...

Is There Room for Foreign Exchange Interventions Under an Inflation Targeting Framework? Evidence from Mexico and Turkey

Domaç, Ilker; Mendoza, Alfonso
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.47%
The salient characteristics of emerging market economies coupled with the increasing adoption of inflation targeting in these countries has stimulated much debate about the role of the exchange rate in inflation targeting regimes. The authors aim at shedding more light on this issue by investigating whether central bank foreign exchange interventions have had any impact on the volatility of the exchange rate in Mexico and Turkey since the adoption of the floating regime. To this end, their study, using daily data on foreign exchange intervention, employs an Exponential GARCH framework. Empirical results suggest that both the amount and frequency of foreign exchange interventions have decreased the volatility of the exchange rates in these countries. The authors' findings corroborate the notion that if foreign exchange interventions are carried out with finesse and sensibly-that is, not to defend a particular exchange rate-they could play a useful role in containing the adverse effects of temporary exchange rate shocks on inflation and financial stability.

Monetary Policy for Emerging Market Economies: Beyond Inflation Targeting

Friedman, Benjamin Morton
Fonte: Informa UK (Taylor & Francis) Publicador: Informa UK (Taylor & Francis)
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.36%
Monetary policymakers normally seek to achieve multiple objectives: for prices as well as real economic activity, sometimes for the composition of real activity as well as the aggregate, and often for aspects of the economy's international balance. The fact that monetary policy has only one basic instrument to use therefore creates both complexity and tensions among these objectives. Although inflation targeting represents a way of imposing a logical consistency on monetary policy, in the presence of multiple policy objectives inflation targeting undermines policy transparency and therefore makes accountability more difficult too. Because of the limitation of monetary policy's having only one instrument, but multiple objectives, fiscal policy and prudential supervision and regulation of financial institutions are also important for enabling emerging market economies to achieve their macroeconomic aims.; Economics

Uncertainties, monetary policy and financial stability: challenges on inflation targeting

Montes,Gabriel Caldas
Fonte: Editora 34 Publicador: Editora 34
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/03/2010 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.4%
This work aims at presenting the challenges that inflation targeting central banks may face since uncertainties represent a harmful element for the effectiveness of monetary policy, and since financial instabilities may disturb the transmission mechanisms - in particular, the expectation channel - and thus the economic stability. Financial stability must not be considered as a simple goal of monetary policy, but a precondition for central banks operate their policies and reach the goals of inflation and output stability. The work identifies different sources of uncertainties that surround central banks' decisions; and approaches the role that inflation targeting central banks should play according to some basic principles that can serve as useful guides for central banks to help them achieve successful outcomes in their conduct of monetary policy.

Inflation Targeting and Inflation Convergence: International Evidence

Arestis, Philip; Chortareas, Georgios; Magkonis, Georgios; Moschos, Demetrios
Fonte: Elsevier Publicador: Elsevier
Tipo: Article; accepted version
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.43%
This is the accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier at http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S104244311400050X.; We examine whether the inflation rates of the countries that pursue inflation targeting policies have converged as opposed to the experience of the OECD non-inflation targeters. Using a methodology introduced by Pesaran (2007a), we examine the stationarity properties 0f the inflation differentials. This approach has the advantage of avoiding setting arbitrarily a specific country as the benchmark economy. Our results indicate that the inflation rates converge irrespective of the monetary policy framework.

Comportamento da função do Banco Central do Brasil: Uma análise para o período do sistema de metas de inflação; Behavior of the Brazilian Central Bank reaction function: an analysis for the inflation targeting period

Schnorrenberger, Richard; Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina; Meurer, Roberto; Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina
Fonte: UFSC Publicador: UFSC
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; Artigo Avaliado pelos Pares Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 01/12/2013 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.4%
http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/2175-8085.2013v16n2p33A função de reação do Banco Central expressa as preferências da autoridade monetária em relação aos desvios da inflação à sua meta e ao hiato do produto. O presente trabalho investiga estas preferências e possíveis assimetrias nos objetivos do Banco Central do Brasil durante o período do sistema de metas para inflação, aplicando e estendendo o modelo de Clarida, Galí e Gertler (1999) com abordagem forward-looking. A econometria de séries temporais é empregada como principal ferramenta estatística para obtenção dos resultados. Os resultados indicam que o Banco Central do Brasil tem conduzido uma política monetária com preferências assimétricas em relação aos seus objetivos. O formulador de política monetária é mais sensível à estabilidade de preços, mas também se atenta aos movimentos do hiato do produto e suaviza intertemporalmente a taxa de juros de curto prazo. Ainda, a autoridade monetária reagiu com maior intensidade aos preços dos itens administrados nas gestões de Armínio Fraga e Henrique Meirelles e aos preços livres na gestão de Alexandre Tombini. Foram identificadas oscilações na função de reação em períodos de alta instabilidade financeira...

Can balance-of-payments constrained economies pursue inflation targeting? A look at the case of Chile

Pérez Caldentey,Esteban
Fonte: UNAM, Facultad de Economía Publicador: UNAM, Facultad de Economía
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/01/2009 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.56%
The current international financial system is anchored on the United States dollar. Countries that do not issue the reserve currency must be able to acquire, and indeed accumulate, the currency they cannot issue to carry real and financial transactions. As a result, their external performance shapes and constrains to a significant extent their capacity to pursue domestic policies including fiscal and monetary policies. In this sense countries are said to be 'balance-of-payments' constrained. This paper examines, for the case of Chile, the limitations imposed by external conditions to the undertaking of a monetary policy strategy, inflation targeting, which focuses explicitly on a domestic objective, namely a low and stable rate of inflation. Chile adopted an inflation targeting strategy in 1991. Since, the adoption of the inflation targeting strategy followed two clear and distinct phases. The first one lasted from 1991 to 1999 and can be termed an Eclectic Inflation Targeting Regime (EIT). From 1999 to the present Chile switched to a Full Fledged Inflation Targeting Regime (FFIT). The analysis of both phases shows that pursuing inflation targeting under balance-of-payments constrained conditions ultimately leads to a conflict of interest between internal and external objectives...

Towards inflation targeting in Egypt: The relationship between exchange rate and inflation

Khodeir,Aliaa Nabil
Fonte: South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences Publicador: South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/01/2012 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.5%
Since the Egyptian economy has recently moved towards inflation targeting, it became very important to know whether exchange rate movements have serious inflationary implications or not. To investigate this subject, the study aims to analyse the relevance of inflation with the exchange rate by using the Granger-causality test. Two indicators of inflation will be used, the consumer price index (CPI) and wholesale price index (WPI). In general, the results show a strong relationship between the two variables in a way that may give support to the application of 'flexible inflation targeting regime instead of strict inflation targeting regime'.