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Resultados filtrados por Publicador: ISEG – Departamento de Economia

Bootstrap Panel Granger-Causality Between Government spending and Revenue

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe
Fonte: ISEG – Departamento de Economia Publicador: ISEG – Departamento de Economia
Tipo: Outros
Publicado em //2008 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.43%
Using bootstrap panel analysis, allowing for cross-country correlation, without the need of pre-testing for unit roots, we study the causality between government revenue and spending for the EU in the period 1960-2006. Spend-and-tax causality is found for Italy, France, Spain, Greece, and Portugal, while tax-and-spend evidence is present for Germany, Belgium, Austria Finland and the UK, and for several EU New Member States.

Bootstrap Panel Granger-Causality Between Government Budget and External Deficits for the EU

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe
Fonte: ISEG – Departamento de Economia Publicador: ISEG – Departamento de Economia
Tipo: Outros
Publicado em //2009 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.54%
We investigate the existence of Granger-causality between current account and government budget balances over the period 1970-2007, for different EU and OECD country groupings. We use a panel-data approach based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values. Our results show a causal relation from budget deficits to current account deficits for several EU countries: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, France, Italy, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, and Slovakia, along the lines of the so-called twin-deficit relationship. Considering the effective real exchange rate in the SUR system does not substantially alter the results.

Debt and economic growth in the European Union : what causes what?

Ferreira, Cândida
Fonte: ISEG – Departamento de Economia Publicador: ISEG – Departamento de Economia
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Publicado em //2014 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.3%
This paper contributes to the empirical investigation of the causality relations between real GDP growth and the growth of three debt categories, namely public, foreign and private debt, in the universe of the 28 European Union countries during the past decade. By using panel Granger causality estimations, we find nonstatistically significant causality between foreign debt and economic growth and the limited importance of the causality between private debt and real GDP growth. On the contrary, the results obtained show statistically relevant bidirectional causality relations between public debt and economic growth, and this is true before and after the outbreak of the recent financial crisis. Moreover, there is clear evidence of economic growth’s contribution to the decrease in public debt.