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Corruption and the size of government: causality tests for OECD and Latin American countries

ARVATE, Paulo Roberto; CURI, Andrea Zaitune; ROCHA, Fabiana; SANCHES, Fabio A. Miessi
Fonte: ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD Publicador: ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.38%
The purpose of this article is to examine the causality between government size and corruption, and to verify if there is a different pattern of causality between developed Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries (excluding Mexico) and developing countries (Latin American countries) during the period 1996 to 2003. Applying Granger and Huang`s (1997) methodology we find evidence that size of government Granger causes corruption in both samples. Since a larger government involvement in private markets today will be followed in future by a higher level of corruption a policy advice would be to enhance governance. The promotion of good governance helps to combat corruption given that it complements efforts to reduce corruption more directly, and it is strongly recommended by the International Monetary Fund, other multilateral institutions, and all worried with the negative impacts of corruption on economic activity.

Crédito rural e produto agropecuário municipal: uma análise de causalidade; Rural credit and agricultural output: a causality analysis

Cavalcanti, Isabel Machado
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 28/11/2008 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.45%
O objetivo deste trabalho é estudar a relação de causalidade entre crédito rural e produto agropecuário. Utilizando dados municipais do período 1999-2004, aplicou-se a metodologia de Granger e Huang (1997), que permite identificar o sentido da causalidade entre duas variáveis em um contexto de painel. Contrariamente à grande parte da literatura que estudou as relações de causalidade entre sistema financeiro e crescimento econômico, este trabalho não identificou a causalidade partindo da variável financeira para o produto. Em geral, os resultados apontaram causalidade unidirecional, partindo do Produto Interno Bruto da agropecuária para o crédito rural.; The main goal of this essay is to evaluate the causal relations between rural credit and agricultural output. Using municipal data for the period 1999-2004, we have implemented the Granger and Huang (1997) methodology, which allows us to identify the causality direction between two variables in a data panel context. Differently from a large part of the literature that has studied causal relations between finance and growth, this work did not find causality from the financial variable towards output. Instead, the results draw attention to unidirectional causality from agricultural output to rural credit.

Accounting earnings properties and determinants of earnings response coefficient in Brazil; Propriedades do lucro contábil e determinantes do coeficiente de resposta ao lucro no Brasil

Pimentel, Renê Coppe
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 17/12/2009 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.18%
A fundamental issue at the interface of economics, finance, and accounting involves the relation between a firm's reported earnings and its stock returns. The lack of research in this field using Brazilian data and the limitations of previous research in terms of time-series data (small length available) motivates the present research. In addition, the practical justification of this research is that time-series properties of accounting earnings and the determinants of Earnings Response Coefficient (ERC) have a direct application in earnings forecasting and the valuation process. Based on this, the general objectives of this dissertation are to analyse the earnings time-series properties and to find the economic determinants of ERC in Brazil. Consequently, this dissertation is divided into three main sections/studies: (1) An analysis of the time-series properties of accounting earnings and the long-term relationship among price, return and earnings; (2) An analysis of the relevance and significance of ERC for individual companies and pooled data; and, (3) Elucidation of the economic determinants of ERC in Brazil. In order to achieve these objectives, quarterly and annual data were gathered and analysed. The quarterly sample is composed by 71 firms with quarterly data from the first quarter of 1995 until first quarter of 2009 (57 time-observations)...

The impact of OFDI on economic growth countries. An econometric approach using panel data and time-series evidence

Ambrosini, Mattia
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Tipo: Dissertação
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.48%
The thesis at hand adds to the existing literature by investigating the relationship between economic growth and outward foreign direct investments (OFDI) on a set of 16 emerging countries. Two different econometric techniques are employed: a panel data regression analysis and a time-series causality analysis. Results from the regression analysis indicate a positive and significant correlation between OFDI and economic growth. Additionally, the coefficient for the OFDI variable is robust in the sense specified by the Extreme Bound Analysis (EBA). On the other hand, the findings of the causality analysis are particularly heterogeneous. The vector autoregression (VAR) and the vector error correction model (VECM) approaches identify unidirectional Granger causality running either from OFDI to GDP or from GDP to OFDI in six countries. In four economies causality among the two variables is bidirectional, whereas in five countries no causality relationship between OFDI and GDP seems to be present.

Análise da relação entre o EVA, o MVA e outros indicadores de desempenho das empresas da BM

Kruger, Silvana Dalmutt
Fonte: Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina Publicador: Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: 109 p.| il., tabs.
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.41%
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Centro Sócio Econômico, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Contabilidade, Florianópolis, 2012; Este estudo tem por objetivo evidenciar a relação entre o EVA, o MVA e outros indicadores de desempenho das empresas listadas na BM&FBovespa no período de 2000 a 2010. A pesquisa se justifica pela relevância da mensuração do desempenho empresarial e da necessidade de informações que evidenciem a geração de valores aos acionistas, nesse sentido, na literatura o EVA e o MVA se destacam como possibilidade para medir a geração de riquezas aos investidores e a valorização das ações. O estudo tem como amostra 196 empresas listadas na BM&FBovespa, com dados do período de 2000 a 2010 disponíveis na base do Economática®. De posse dos dados foi utilizado uma estimativa econométrica de painel dinâmico, no qual acompanhou-se ao longo do tempo 196 empresas durante dez períodos. Para analisar a relação entre as variáveis explicativas com o MVA utilizou-se o estimador GMM de Arellano e Bond (1991) e do teste de causalidade de Granger para evidenciar estatísticamente o sentido de causa entre as variáveis estudadas. Os resultados alcançados permitem-nos identificar a relação entre o desempenho do EVA com o MVA das empresas. Bem como...

Public debt and economic growth : a Granger causality panel data approach

Ferreira, Maria Cândida
Fonte: ISEG - Departamento de Economia. Publicador: ISEG - Departamento de Economia.
Tipo: Outros
Publicado em //2009 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.66%
This paper analyses the Granger-causality relationship between the growth of the real GDP per capita and the public debt, here represented by the ratio of the current primary surplus/GDP and the ratio of the gross Government debt/GDP. Using OECD annual data for 20 countries between 1988 and 2001, we adapt the methodology recently applied by Erdil and Yetkiner (2008) and we conclude that there is clear Granger causality and that it is always bi-directional. In addition, our findings point to a heterogeneous behaviour across the different countries. These results have important policy implications since not only does public debt restrain economic growth, but also real GDP per capita growth influences the evolution of public debt.

Bootstrap panel Granger-causality between government spending and revenue in the EU

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe
Fonte: The William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Publicador: The William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan
Tipo: Outros
Publicado em /02/2009 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.43%
Using bootstrap panel analysis, allowing for cross-country correlation, without the need of pre-testing for unit roots, we study the causality between government revenue and spending for the EU in the period 1960-2006. Spend-and-tax causality is found for Italy, France, Spain, Greece, and Portugal, while tax-and-spend evidence is present for Germany, Belgium, Austria, Finland and the UK, and for several EU New Member States.

Bootstrap Panel Granger-Causality Between Government spending and Revenue

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe
Fonte: ISEG – Departamento de Economia Publicador: ISEG – Departamento de Economia
Tipo: Outros
Publicado em //2008 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.43%
Using bootstrap panel analysis, allowing for cross-country correlation, without the need of pre-testing for unit roots, we study the causality between government revenue and spending for the EU in the period 1960-2006. Spend-and-tax causality is found for Italy, France, Spain, Greece, and Portugal, while tax-and-spend evidence is present for Germany, Belgium, Austria Finland and the UK, and for several EU New Member States.

Bootstrap Panel Granger-Causality Between Government Budget and External Deficits for the EU

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe
Fonte: ISEG – Departamento de Economia Publicador: ISEG – Departamento de Economia
Tipo: Outros
Publicado em //2009 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.54%
We investigate the existence of Granger-causality between current account and government budget balances over the period 1970-2007, for different EU and OECD country groupings. We use a panel-data approach based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values. Our results show a causal relation from budget deficits to current account deficits for several EU countries: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, France, Italy, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, and Slovakia, along the lines of the so-called twin-deficit relationship. Considering the effective real exchange rate in the SUR system does not substantially alter the results.

Bank market concentration and efficiency in the European Union: a panel Granger causality approach

Ferreira, Cândida
Fonte: ISEG. Departamento de Economia - Publicador: ISEG. Departamento de Economia -
Tipo: Outros
Publicado em //2012 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
86.71%
The relationships between bank market concentration and bank efficiency are of particular relevance in the European Union (EU), but they remain controversial. Using a panel Granger causality approach, this paper contributes to the literature, testing not only the causality running from bank market concentration to bank efficiency, but also the reverse causality running from efficiency to concentration. The results obtained confirm the relative complexity of these causality relationships, although they generally point to a negative causation running both from concentration to efficiency and from efficiency to concentration. These findings are in line with the Structure Conduct Performance (SCP) paradigm and the suggestions that the increase of the banks’ market power will contribute to inefficiency, since these banks will face less competition to obtain more output results with less input costs. Our results suggest that within this panel of all 27 EU countries over a relatively long time period, from 1996 to the onset of the 2008 financial crisis, the more cost-efficient commercial and savings banks operated in less concentrated markets.

Revisiting fiscal sustainability: panel cointegration and structural breaks in OECD countries

Afonso, António; Jalles, João Tovar
Fonte: ISEG - Departamento de Economia Publicador: ISEG - Departamento de Economia
Tipo: Outros
Publicado em //2012 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.35%
We assess the sustainability of public finances in OECD countries, over the period 1970-2010, using unit root and cointegration analysis, both country and panel based, controlling for endogenous breaks. Results notably show: lack of cointegration – absence of sustainability – between government revenues and expenditures for most countries (except for Austria, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, and UK); improvements of the primary balance after past worsening in debt ratios for Australia, Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands and the UK; Granger causality from government debt to the primary balance for 12 countries (suggesting the existence of Ricardian regimes). Overall, fiscal policy has been less sustainable for several countries, and panel data results corroborate the time-series findings.

Bank performance and economic growth : evidence from Granger panel causality estimations

Ferreira, Cândida
Fonte: ISEG. Departamento de Economia Publicador: ISEG. Departamento de Economia
Tipo: Outros
Publicado em //2013 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
76.75%
This paper provides empirical evidence on the causality relations between bank performance and economic growth in a panel including 27 European Union member-states from 1996 through to the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. Bank performance is represented not only by the Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE) ratios but also by bank cost efficiency, measured through Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). For economic growth, we consider not only the GDP per capita but also the gross fixed capital formation growth. Deploying a panel Granger causality approach, we confirm positive causality running from bank performance to economic growth. However, as regards the opposite causality, running from growth to bank performance, we conclude that economic growth positively contributes to the bank ROA and ROE ratios but not so certainly in the case of the DEA bank cost efficiency.

Debt and economic growth in the European Union : what causes what?

Ferreira, Cândida
Fonte: ISEG – Departamento de Economia Publicador: ISEG – Departamento de Economia
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Publicado em //2014 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.3%
This paper contributes to the empirical investigation of the causality relations between real GDP growth and the growth of three debt categories, namely public, foreign and private debt, in the universe of the 28 European Union countries during the past decade. By using panel Granger causality estimations, we find nonstatistically significant causality between foreign debt and economic growth and the limited importance of the causality between private debt and real GDP growth. On the contrary, the results obtained show statistically relevant bidirectional causality relations between public debt and economic growth, and this is true before and after the outbreak of the recent financial crisis. Moreover, there is clear evidence of economic growth’s contribution to the decrease in public debt.

Causas do desmatamento da Amaz?nia: uma aplica??o do teste de causalidade de Granger acerca das principais fontes de desmatamento nos munic?pios da Amaz?nia Legal brasileira

DINIZ, Marcelo Bentes; OLIVEIRA J?NIOR, Jos? Nilo de; TROMPIERI NETO, Nicolino; DINIZ, M?rcia Juc? Teixeira
Fonte: Universidade Federal do Pará Publicador: Universidade Federal do Pará
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.54%
Muitas s?o os fatores, apontadas pela literatura pertinente, acerca das causas do desmatamento da Amaz?nia Legal brasileira. Desde aspectos end?genos como as condi??es edafo-clim?ticas, a aspectos relacionados ? a??o antr?pica como os movimentos populacionais, o crescimento urbano e, em especial, as a??es aut?nomas ou induzidas dos diversos agentes econ?micos p?blicos e privados que t?m atuado na regi?o, configurando historicamente os processos de ocupa??o do solo e aproveitamento econ?mico do espa?o amaz?nico. Este artigo tem como objetivo realizar um teste de causalidade, no sentido de Granger, nas principais vari?veis sugeridas como importantes para explicar o desmatamento da Amaz?nia Legal, no per?odo de 1997 a 2006. A metodologia a ser empregada se baseia em modelos din?micos para dados em painel, desenvolvidos por Holtz-Eakin et al. (1988) e Arellano-Bond (1991), que desenvolveram um teste de causalidade baseado no artigo seminal de Granger (1969). Entre os principais resultados obtidos est? a constata??o emp?rica de que existe uma causalidade bidirecional entre desmatamento e as ?reas de culturas permanente e tempor?ria, bem como o tamanho do rebanho bovino.; ABSTRACT: Many are the factors indicated by the pertinent literature concerning the causes of deforestation in Brazilian Legal Amazon. From endogenous aspects as the edafo-climatic conditions to aspects related to anthropic action...

Beyond Trade : The Impact of Preferential Trade Agreements on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows

Medvedev, Denis
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.03%
The author investigates the effects of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on the net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows of member countries using a comprehensive database of PTAs in a panel setting. He finds that PTA membership is associated with a positive change in net FDI inflows, and the FDI gains are increasing in the market size of the PTA partners and their proximity to the host country. The author identifies several different channels through which preferential trade liberalization may affect FDI, and confirms that both threshold effects (signing the agreement) and market size effects (joining a larger and faster-growing common market) are important determinants of net FDI inflows, although the latter seem to dominate. The estimated relationship is largely driven by North-South PTAs, and is most pronounced in the late 1990s and early 2000s, the period when the majority of "deep integration" PTAs had been advanced.

The Structural Determinants of External Vulnerability

Loayza, Norman V.; Raddatz, Claudio
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.03%
The authors examine empirically how domestic structural characteristics related to openness and product- and factor-market flexibility influence the impact that terms-of-trade shocks can have on aggregate output. For this purpose, they apply an econometric methodology based on semi-structural vector auto-regressions to a panel of 90 countries with annual observations for the period 1974-2000. Using this methodology, the authors isolate and standardize the shocks, estimate their impact on GDP, and examine how this impact depends on the domestic conditions outlined above. They find that larger trade openness magnifies the output impact of external shocks, particularly the negative ones, while improvements in labor market flexibility and financial openness reduce their impact. Domestic financial depth has a more nuanced role in stabilizing the economy. It helps reduce the impact of external shocks particularly in environments of high exposure-that is, when trade and financial openness are high, firm entry is unrestricted, and labor markets are rigid.

Does Trade Foster Institutions? An Empirical Assessment

NICOLINI, Marcella; PACCAGNINI, Alessia
Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.22%
The relationship between trade and institutions has been extensively debated by trade economists and political scientists. The aim of the present paper is to provide some empirical evidence on the causal relationship between institutions and trade flows in a panel framework. We present a Granger causality test (1969) as well as a Hurlin and Venet (2001) test for panel data using a bilateral trade flows panel that covers 29 years. The issue of zero flows of trade is handled by using a panel Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood estimator.

Inversiones de las AFP en empresas chilenas, determinantes y efectos en el mercado

Fuentes Figueroa, Sebastián Jorge
Fonte: Universidad de Chile Publicador: Universidad de Chile
Tipo: Tesis
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.19%
Magíster en Economía Aplicada; Ingeniero Civil Industrial; A julio del 2008, más del 50% de la población Chilena se encuentra afiliada al sistema de pensiones, y en donde más del 80% de los afiliados tiene menos de 50 años. Por su parte, las inversiones de las AFP representan el 56% del PIB nacional teniendo un tercio de su renta variable en acciones locales. Por otro lado, los índices accionarios, tipos de cambio y commodities, muestran volatilidades dispares y que reaccionan ante diferentes escenarios macro económicos. Lo anterior, nos lleva a tratar de responder dos preguntas: ¿Son capaces las AFP de afectar la volatilidad de los precios de las acciones de mercado? Y ¿Cumplen las AFP su rol Fiduciario? La primera pregunta se contesta utilizando una metodología distinta a la utilizada por el Banco Central de Chile en un estudio similar, y la segunda abre una nueva línea de investigación en el tema. Primero se realiza un testeo de los límites de inversión establecidos por la Superintedencia de Pensiones, que regula a las AFP, descartando que existan sesgos en los resultados debido a ellos. Para la primera pregunta, se utiliza la metodología descrita en Christophe Hurlin and Baptiste Venet (2003), Granger Causality Tests in Panel Data Models with Fixed Coefficients. Se divide la muestra por tamaño y por sector económico testeando así un modelo no lineal...

Efeitos dos ganhos de produtividade total dos fatores da agropecuária sobre os preços agrícolas no Brasil: 1970-2006; The effects of total factor productivity over the food prices in Brazil

Mendes, Giovanna Miranda
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 11/09/2015 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.66%
A agropecuária brasileira tem crescido nas últimas décadas e os ganhos de produtividade tem sido importante neste bom desempenho do setor. O presente trabalho tem dois objetivos principais. O primeiro deles foi mensurar o crescimento desta produtividade total dos fatores na agropecuária brasileira estadual, decompondo o crescimento da PTF em progresso tecnológico e eficiência técnica. O segundo objetivo foi analisar o efeito do crescimento da PTF da agropecuária brasileira sobre os preços agrícolas, no Brasil, de 1970 a 2006. O crescimento desta produtividade foi mensurado a partir dos insumos terra, trabalho e capital na função de produção translog sob orientação do produto, a partir do método de Fronteira Estocástica de Produção e do índice de produtividade de Malmquist. Para avaliar o efeito do crescimento da PTF sobre os preços agrícolas foi construído o índice de preços agrícolas utilizando-se o Índice de preços de Laspeyres para estimar o vetor autoregressivo em painel (panel- VAR), acrescentando as variáveis produtividade total dos fatores (PTF), salário rural, financiamento agrícola e renda per capita domiciliar. Além disso, foi aplicado o teste de causalidade, no sentido de Granger, e estimada a função impulso resposta. A base de dados utilizada foi...

Demanda y crecimiento económico

Oglietti, Guillermo Celso
Fonte: Bellaterra : Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Publicador: Bellaterra : Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona,
Tipo: Tesis i dissertacions electròniques; info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //2008 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.5%
Consultable des del TDX; Títol obtingut de la portada digitalitzada; La demanda cumple un papel dicotómico sobre el crecimiento. Por un lado desplaza el ahorro y así restringe la capacidad de la economía para financiar la inversión, mientras que por el otro, estimula la inversión gracias a que conforma el mercado que finalmente dará salida a la producción. Así, el efecto estimulante del consumo compite con la restricción financiera. Esta es una disyuntiva clásica en economía, sobre la cual la teoría del crecimiento neoclásica parece decantarse sin atenuantes a favor del enfoque que pone el énfasis en la restricción financiera. Se propone como alternativa, un modelo de crecimiento económico à la Ramsey que permite analizar los impactos derivados de incluir este papel dual del consumo, a la vez de que se desarrolla un modelo de crecimiento à la Solow que una vez parametrizado, permite explorar tres grandes hipótesis. La primera es el mecanismo de causalidad que bajo un modelo neoclásico tiene al ahorro como disparador del crecimiento a través de la inversión. Una parte significativa de la literatura encuentra que parece ser el crecimiento quien explica el ahorro (y la inversión) y no a la inversa. También se halla este resultado en un ejercicio econométrico de causalidad en el sentido de Granger aplicado a la economía argentina del último siglo. La segunda hipótesis es el papel de la inversión extranjera directa (IED) en el crecimiento...