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Public debt and the limits of fiscal policy to increase economic growth

Teles, Vladimir Kuhl; Mussolini, Caio César
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.83%
Research that seeks to estimate the effects of fiscal policies on economic growth has ignored the role of public debt in this relationship. This study proposes a theoretical model of endogenous growth, which demonstrates that the level of the public debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio should negatively impact the effect of fiscal policy on growth. This occurs because government indebtedness extracts part of the savings of the young to pay interest on the debts of the older generation, who are no longer saving. Therefore, the payment of debt interest assumes an allocation exchange role between generations that is similar to a pay-as-you-go pension system, which results in changes in the savings rate of the economy. The major conclusions of the theoretical model were tested using an econometric model to provide evidence for the validity of this conclusion. Our empirical analysis controls for timeinvariant, country-specific heterogeneity in the growth rates. We also address endogeneity issues and allow for heterogeneity across countries in the model parameters and for cross-sectional dependence.

Desalavancagem e política fiscal em um modelo de consistência entre fluxos e estoques (SFC); Deleveraging and fiscal policy in a stock-flow consistent (SFC) model

Ítalo Pedrosa Gomes Martins
Fonte: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp Publicador: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 26/02/2014 Português
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75.71%
O objetivo da dissertação é de avaliar, por meio de um modelo teórico, as interações macroeconômicas entre a dívida privada, o déficit público, a dívida pública e o crescimento econômico num contexto de desalavancagem do setor privado. Para tal, simula-se um modelo stock-flow consistent (SFC) de economia fechada, composto de famílias, firmas, bancos, banco central e governo. As simulações concentram-se na compreensão dos efeitos de diferentes regimes de gasto público na atividade econômica e nas implicações dinâmicas para as variáveis fiscais, com a finalidade de entender quais soluções mais se adequam ao propósito de acelerar a recuperação da atividade econômica e as políticas mais consistentes com a estabilidade fiscal de médio prazo neste contexto de desalavancagem. Os resultados indicam que a deterioração fiscal é um efeito do processo de desalavancagem do setor privado e que políticas de austeridade implicam num tempo maior para a recuperação da atividade econômica e da "normalidade" da situação fiscal. Em oposição, o aumento anticíclico dos gastos permite o restabelecimento mais acelerado da atividade econômica e da situação fiscal. Esses resultados sugerem que a consideração da integração de balanços dos agentes é fundamental para a análise da política fiscal...

Public debt and economic growth : a Granger causality panel data approach

Ferreira, Maria Cândida
Fonte: ISEG - Departamento de Economia. Publicador: ISEG - Departamento de Economia.
Tipo: Outros
Publicado em //2009 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
145.86%
This paper analyses the Granger-causality relationship between the growth of the real GDP per capita and the public debt, here represented by the ratio of the current primary surplus/GDP and the ratio of the gross Government debt/GDP. Using OECD annual data for 20 countries between 1988 and 2001, we adapt the methodology recently applied by Erdil and Yetkiner (2008) and we conclude that there is clear Granger causality and that it is always bi-directional. In addition, our findings point to a heterogeneous behaviour across the different countries. These results have important policy implications since not only does public debt restrain economic growth, but also real GDP per capita growth influences the evolution of public debt.

The Role of government debt on economic growth

Alves, José Ricardo Borges
Fonte: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão Publicador: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em //2014 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
95.87%
Mestrado em Economia; In our research, we study the effect of public debt on economic growth for annual and 5-year average growth rates, as well as the existence of non-linearity effects of debt on growth for 14 European countries since 1970 until 2012. We also consider debt-to-GDP ratio interactions with monetary, public finance, institutional and macroeconomic variables. We conclude that debt has a negative impact of -0.01% for each increment of 1% of public debt, although debt service has a 10 times worse effect on growth. We reach average thresholds for annual and 5-year average of 75% and 74%, respectively. Belonging to Eurozone has a detrimental effect of at least -0.5% for real per capita GDP, and banking crisis is the most harmful crisis for the growth phenomena.

The Role of Government Debt in Economic Growth

Afonso, António; Alves, José
Fonte: ISEG – Departamento de Economia Publicador: ISEG – Departamento de Economia
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Publicado em //2014 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
95.88%
We study the effect of public debt on economic growth for annual and 5-year average growth rates, as well as the existence of non-linearity effects of debt on growth for 14 European countries from 1970 until 2012. We also consider debt-to-GDP ratio interactions with monetary, public finance, institutional and macroeconomic variables. Our results show a negative impact of -0.01% for each 1% increment of public debt, although debt service has a 10 times worse effect on growth. In addition, we find average debt ratio thresholds of around 75%. Belonging to the Eurozone has a detrimental effect of at least -0.5% for real per capita GDP, and the banking crisis is the most harmful crisis for growth.

Debt and economic growth in the European Union : what causes what?

Ferreira, Cândida
Fonte: ISEG – Departamento de Economia Publicador: ISEG – Departamento de Economia
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Publicado em //2014 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
95.87%
This paper contributes to the empirical investigation of the causality relations between real GDP growth and the growth of three debt categories, namely public, foreign and private debt, in the universe of the 28 European Union countries during the past decade. By using panel Granger causality estimations, we find nonstatistically significant causality between foreign debt and economic growth and the limited importance of the causality between private debt and real GDP growth. On the contrary, the results obtained show statistically relevant bidirectional causality relations between public debt and economic growth, and this is true before and after the outbreak of the recent financial crisis. Moreover, there is clear evidence of economic growth’s contribution to the decrease in public debt.

Health, Demographic Transition and Economic Growth

Jorgensen, Ole Hagen
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
85.74%
This paper develops a link between four central components of the demographic transition: survival rates; fertility decisions; altruistic intergenerational transfers from workers toward their parents; and economic growth. An increase in child survival is found to reduce the fertility rate and altruistic transfers, and thereby increase the savings rate and the productivity growth rate. The analysis illustrates the key role of child health in the demographic transition.

Breaking the Barriers to Higher Economic Growth : Better Governance and Deeper Reforms in the Middle East and North Africa

Nabli, Mustapha Kamel
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Português
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75.79%
Contents of the report are as follows: Long-term economic development: challenges and prospects for the Arab countries by Mustapha K. Nabli. Reform complementarities and economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa by Mustapha Kamel Nabli, and Marie-Ange Veganzones-Varoudakis. After Argentina: was MENA right to be cautious? By Mustapha K. Nabli. Restarting Arab economic reform by Mustapha K. Nabli. Democracy for better governance and higher economic growth in the MENA region? By Mustapha K. Nabli, and Carlos Silva-Jauregui. The political economy of industrial policy in the Middle East and North Africa by Mustapha K. Nabli, Jennifer Keller, Claudia Nassif, and Carlos Silva-Jauregui. The macroeconomics of labor market outcomes in MENA by Jennifer Keller, and Mustapha K. Nabli. Challenges and opportunities for the 21st century by Mustapha Nabli. Labor market reforms, growth, and unemployment in labor-exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa by Pierre-Richard Agenor, Mustapha K. Nabli...

Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth : Lessons for Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Gray, Cheryl; Lane, Tracey; Varoudakis, Aristomene
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.95%
This study explores public finance policies in the transition countries of Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and their likely effects on economic growth. The analysis is organized in three parts. Part one reviews public finance systems across the ECA region with regard to overall size, structure of expenditures and revenues, and patterns of fiscal adjustment over time. It compares these patterns and trends in ECA countries against those in fast-growing economies in other regions, and it explores possible relationships between these public finance variables and rates of economic growth. Part two undertakes detailed analysis of public expenditures policies in four major areas: infrastructure, education, health, and pensions. Part three turns to the revenue side of the budget and looks in detail at two issues of particular importance in current policy debates: the impact of flat income tax reforms and the level and structure of taxes on labor.

Fiscal Policy, Public Expenditure Composition, and Growth : Theory and Empirics

Semmler, Willi; Greiner, Alfred; Diallo, Bobo; Rezai, Armon; Rajaram, Anand
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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66.02%
This paper responds to the development policy debate involving the World Bank and the IMF on the use of fiscal policy not only for economic stabilization but also to promote economic growth and increase per capita income. A key issue in this debate relates to the effect of the composition of public expenditure on economic growth. Policy makers and some researchers have argued that expenditure on growth-enhancing functions could enhance future revenue and justify the provision of "fiscal space" in the budget. But there are no simple ways to identify the growth-maximizing composition of public expenditure. The current paper lays out a research strategy to explore the effects of fiscal policy, including the composition of public expenditure, on economic growth, using a time series approach. Based on the modeling strategy of Greiner, Semmler and Gong (2005) we develop a general model that features a government that undertakes public expenditure on (a) education and health facilities which enhance human capital...

Seychelles : Public Sector Debt and Prospects for Successful Economic Reform

Kojo, Naoko C.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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65.99%
Seychelles is at a development crossroads. With public sector debt at over 200 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), manifested by years of poor macroeconomic management and rigid economic structure, the economy has been experiencing a serious downturn since the beginning of the 2000s. While real GDP contracted by cumulative nine percent for the past four years, the significantly overvalued rupee has led to a loss of export competitiveness, leading to persistent balance of payments difficulties. Following independence in 1976, Seychelles adopted a state-led development model, in which the Government plays a dominant role in every segment of the economy through extensive controls and regulations. It intervened directly in manufacturing, distribution, trade and other economic activities through its parastatals, often at the expense of private sector development. Provision of education and health services was predominantly the responsibility of the Government. Seychelles is faced with formidable challenges in the years ahead. With public sector debt at some 200 percent of GDP, manifested by decades of poor policy management, there is no painless solution to Seychelles debt predicament. For Seychelles the primary tool to reduce the debt burden...

Banking Sector Openness and Economic Growth

Bayraktar, Nihal; Wang, Yan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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85.68%
Banking sector openness may directly affect growth by improving the access to financial services and indirectly by improving the efficiency of financial intermediaries, both of which reduce the cost of financing, and in turn, stimulate capital accumulation and economic growth. The objective of the paper is to empirically reinvestigate these direct and indirect links using a more advanced econometric technique (GMM dynamic panel estimators). An illustrative model is presented to link financial market development with investment. The empirical results confirm the presence of direct and indirect links, and thus provide support for countries planning to open their banking sector for international competition.

Crafting Labor Policy : Techniques and Lessons from Latin America

Gill, Indermit; Montenegro, Claudio E.; Domeland, Dorte
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank and Oxford University Press Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank and Oxford University Press
Português
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75.64%
Nothing impacts the welfare of individuals and households more directly than employment and earnings opportunities. In developing countries, labor market reform is a crucial component for the success of overall economic policy reforms. Despite success in other areas of economic reform over the past ten years, Argentina, Brazil, and Chile continue to face significant labor policy issues. To reduce the rhetoric around the issues - in Argentina, a high level of unemployment exists; in Brazil, the high costs of public employment have created large government deficits and public debt; and in Chile, there is a growing income inequality and uncertainty of employment - the book uses a systematically quantitative approach. The value of the quantitative methods in analysis is that they can provide frameworks to better understand the effects of various policy actions. The results can then be translated into benefits and costs that policy makers can more easily explain to their constituents. The policy recommendations resulting from the issues analyzed in Crafting Labor Policy: Techniques and Lessons from Latin America may be beneficial to other developing countries enacting labor market reforms.

Economic Growth, Income Distribution, and Poverty in Poland During Transition

Paci, Pierella; Sasin, Martin J.; Verbeek, Jos
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.69%
The authors attempt to analyze the linkages between macroeconomic policies and economic growth variables, their movement over time, and their impact on poverty in the case of Poland. Poland, a middle-income country, is of particular interest because its data sources allow for a relatively detailed analysis of such developments, and the macroeconomic environment and the economic growth variables show a relatively sizable degree of variance. In addition, Poland has struggled in the past few years to reduce poverty while still experiencing positive economic growth. The authors show that in Poland, poverty-reducing growth depends heavily on the ability of the economy to generate jobs. During the early years of transition, net job growth was positive, while after the Russian crisis of 1998, productivity gains were accomplished mostly through labor shedding, henceforth, increasing poverty in Poland. In addition, the authors identify how fiscal and social protection policies affect income distribution and poverty in Poland.

Intersectoral Dynamics and Economic Growth in Ecuador

Fiess, Norbert M.; Verner, Dorte
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.77%
The authors analyze sectoral growth in Ecuador, using multivariate co-integration analysis. They find significant long-run relationships between the agricultural, industrial, and service sectors. Moreover, they are able to derive dynamic sector models that combine the short-run links between the three sectors with long-run dynamics. When disaggregate the three sectors into their intra-sectoral components, they discover many interesting relationships that contribute to a better understanding of inter- and intra-sectoral dynamics in the context of Ecuadorian economic growth. Their findings suggest that more attention should be paid to inter-dependencies in sectoral growth, since an improved understanding of inter-sectoral dynamics may facilitate the implementation of policy aimed at increasing economic growth in Ecuador. There appears to be no direct link between the oil sector, and the non-oil industrial sectors. But strong evidence supports co-integration between the oil industry, and financial services...

Infrastructure and Economic Growth in Egypt

Loayza, Norman V.; Odawara, Rei
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.84%
In the past half a century, Egypt has experienced remarkable progress in the provision of infrastructure in all areas, including transportation, telecommunication, power generation, and water and sanitation. Judging from an international perspective, Egypt has achieved an infrastructure status that closely corresponds to what could be expected given its national income level. The present infrastructure status is the result of decades of purposeful investment. In the past 15 years, however, a worrisome trend has emerged: Infrastructure investment has suffered a substantial decline, which may be at odds with the country s goals of raising economic growth. Improving infrastructure in Egypt would require a combination of larger infrastructure expenditures and more efficient investment. The analysis provided in this paper suggests that an increase in infrastructure expenditures from 5 to 6 percent of gross domestic product would raise the annual per capita growth rate of gross domestic product by about 0.5 percentage points in a decade s time and 1 percentage point by the third decade. If the increase in infrastructure investment did not imply a heavier government burden (for instance...

Policy Mix, Public Debt Management and Fiscal Rules : Lessons from the 2002 Brazilian Crisis

Herrera, Santiago
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
85.83%
Despite significant progress in economic reform throughout the 1990s, and an exemplary development of the policymaking framework in the second part of the decade, Brazil suffered a major public debt and currency crisis in 2002. Though the political origin of the uncertainty cannot be ignored, the author identifies other sources of uncertainty emanating from the policymaking framework: fiscal policy was not responsive to the shocks, public debt instruments were used with several objectives (to stabilize the currency and to lengthen maturity) and there was inadequate supervision of agents holding public debt. Most of the flaws have been fixed following the crisis: a) The primary fiscal balance has been increased, sending the signal that it is a flexible instrument that will be used to ensure commitment of the sovereign to honor its obligations. b) The central bank formally transferred to the Treasury the remaining debt-issuance functions, facilitating a more adequate balancing of different risks involved in debt management. c) Mutual funds' public debt holdings are better regulated, ensuring that end-investors have the proper information to assess the risk of the institutions in which they invest.

Public Debt in Developing Countries : Has the Market-Based Model Worked?

Gill, Indermit; Pinto, Brian
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research; Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.96%
Over the past 25 years, significant levels of public debt and external finance are more likely to have enhanced macroeconomic vulnerability than economic growth in developing countries. This applies not just to countries with a history of high inflation and past default, but also to those in East Asia, with a long tradition of prudent macroeconomic policies and rapid growth. The authors examine why with the help of a conceptual framework drawn from the growth, capital flows, and crisis literature for developing countries with access to the international capital markets (market access countries or MACs). They find that, while the chances of another generalized debt crisis have receded since the turbulence of the late 1990s, sovereign debt is indeed constraining growth in MACs, especially those with debt sustainability problems. Several prominent MACs have sought to address the debt and external finance problem by generating large primary fiscal surpluses, switching to flexible exchange rates, and reforming fiscal and financial institutions. Such country-led initiatives completely dominate attempts to overhaul the international financial architecture or launch new lending instruments, which have so far met with little success. While the initial results of the countries' initiatives have been encouraging...

Political Violence and Economic Growth

Bodea, Cristina; Elbadawi, Ibrahim A.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.81%
This paper analyzes the economic growth impact of organized political violence. First, the authors articulate the theoretical underpinnings of the growth impact of political violence in a popular model of growth under uncertainty. The authors show that, under plausible assumptions regarding attitudes toward risk, the overall effects of organized political violence are likely to be much higher than its direct capital destruction impact. Second, using a quantitative model of violence that distinguishes between three levels of political violence (riots, coups, and civil war), the authors use predicted probabilities of aggregate violence and its three manifestations to identify their growth effects in an encompassing growth model. Panel regressions suggest that organized political violence, especially civil war, significantly lowers long-term economic growth. Moreover, unlike most previous studies, the authors also find ethnic fractionalization to have a negative and direct effect on growth, though its effect is substantially ameliorated by the institutions specific to a non-factional partial democracy. Third...

Finanças publicas e desenvolvimento economico em Minas Gerais : as implicações da renegociação da divida sobre as politicas de fomento estadual; Public finance and economic development in Minas Gerais : the implications of the renegociation of debt for the state's fomentation policies

Danilo Jorge Vieira
Fonte: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp Publicador: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 15/12/2006 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.75%
O trabalho aborda as conseqüências do ajuste das finanças estaduais efetuado a partir da renegociação da dívida pública, promovida ao amparo da Lei 9.496/1997, sobre a capacidade de implementação de políticas autônomas de fomento por parte dos estados. Demonstra, de início, que os novos parâmetros de gestão fiscal estabelecidos no bojo do processo de ajustamento, aprofundados posteriormente por meio da promulgação da LRF, fizeram emergir fortes restrições, implicando na desarticulação daquelas políticas, que perderam substância e espaço no âmbito dos orçamentos. A partir da análise mais detalhada da experiência de Minas Gerais, verifica, primeiramente, o impacto que tal reordenamento fiscal e financeiro teve para as finanças públicas. Avalia, em seguida, os desdobramentos sobre as estratégias levadas adiante pelo governo mineiro para apoiar a estrutura produtiva local, descrevendo as mudanças pelas quais passaram as diretrizes de atuação e os instrumentos de estímulo manejados, que se tornaram muito mais contidos, obscurecendo as perspectivas de crescimento e modernização da base econômica instalada na região. Conclui que a nova institucionalidade emergente a partir da renegociação da dívida problematizou a evolução dos desequilíbrios econômicos regionais...