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Services Liberalization in Preferential Trade Arrangements : The Case of Kenya

Balistreri, Edward J.; Tarr, David G.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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37.16%
Given the growing importance of commitments to foreign investors in services in regional trade agreements, it is important to develop applied general equilibrium models to assess the impacts of liberalization of barriers to multinational service providers. This paper develops a 55 sector applied general equilibrium model of Kenya with foreign direct investment and Dixit-Stiglitz productivity effects from additional varieties of imperfectly competitive goods or services, and uses the model to assess its regional and multilateral trade options, focusing on commitments to foreign investors in services. To assess the sensitivity of the results to parameter values, the model is executed 30,000 times, and results are reported as confidence intervals of the sample distributions. The analysis reveals that a 50 percent preferential reduction in the ad valorem equivalents of barriers in all business services by Kenya with its African partners would be somewhat beneficial for Kenya. If a preferential agreement with African partners is combined with an agreement with the European Union...

Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence

Wacziarg, Romain; Horn Welch, Karen
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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37.16%
A new data set of on openness indicators and trade liberalization dates allows the 1995 Sachs and Warner study on the relationship between trade openness and economic growth to be extended to the 1990s. New evidence on the time paths of economic growth, physical capital investment, and openness around episodes of trade policy liberalization is also presented. Analysis based on the new data set suggests that over the 1950–98 period, countries that liberalized their trade regimes experienced average annual growth rates that were about 1.5 percentage points higher than before liberalization. Postliberalization investment rates rose 1.5–2.0 percentage points, confirming past findings that liberalization fosters growth in part through its effect on physical capital accumulation. Liberalization raised the average trade to GDP ratio by roughly 5 percentage points, suggesting that trade policy liberalization did indeed raise the actual level of openness of liberalizers. However, these average effects mask large differences across countries.

Does Regionalism Affect Trade Liberalization toward Non-Members?

Estevadeordal, Antoni; Freund, Caroline; Ornelas, Emanuel
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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37.31%
This paper examines the effect of regionalism on unilateral trade liberalization using industry-level data on applied most-favored nation tariffs and bilateral preferences for ten Latin American countries from 1990 to 2001. The findings show that preferential tariff reduction in a given sector leads to a reduction in the external (most-favored nation) tariff in that sector. External liberalization is greater if preferences are granted to important suppliers. However, these "complementarity effects" of preferential liberalization on external liberalization do not arise in customs unions. Overall, the results suggest that concerns about a negative effect of preferential liberalization on external trade liberalization are unfounded.

Trade Preferences to Small Developing Countries and the Welfare Costs of Lost Multilateral Liberalization

Limão, Nuno; Olarreaga, Marcelo
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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37.21%
The proliferation of preferential trade liberalization over the past 20 years has raised the question of whether it slows down multilateral trade liberalization. Recent theoretical and empirical evidence indicates this is the case even for unilateral preferences that industrial countries provide to small and poor countries but there is no estimate of the resulting welfare costs. To avoid this stumbling block effect the authors suggest replacing unilateral preferences by a fixed import subsidy. They argue that this scheme would reduce the drag of preferences on multilateral liberalization and generate a Pareto improvement. More important, the authors provide the first estimates of the welfare cost of preferential liberalization as a stumbling block to multilateral liberalization. By combining recent estimates of the stumbling block effect of preferences with data for 170 countries and over 5,000 products they calculate the welfare effects of the United States, European Union, and Japan switching from unilateral preferences to the developing countries to the import subsidy scheme. Even in a model with no dynamic gains to trade the authors find that the switch produces an annual net welfare gain for the 170 countries ($4,354 million) and for each group: the United States...

Pacific Islands - Regional Economic Report : Embarking on a Global Voyage - Trade Liberalization and Complementary Reforms in the Pacific

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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37.23%
This regional economic report, evaluates the strategy that the Pacific Island Countries (PICs) have chosen towards liberalizing their economies, and, analyzes as well the interaction of trade liberalization with complementary reforms in taxation, and the public sector. As a consequence of multilateral and unilateral efforts towards freer trade worldwide, preferential access granted to PICs in developed country markets, is being eroded. In particular, the report looks at the Pacific Island Countries Trade Agreement (PICTA), viewed as a "stepping stone" to become more competitive in global markets. It is important to note that the formation of a preferential trade area, as opposed to multilateral or unilateral liberalization, is perceived as trade liberalization, but in a gradual process, to limit disruptions, and adjustments to their economies. However, in order for this "stepping stone" not to become a "stumbling block," the liberalization strategy needs to be actively pursued, through sound policy framework...

Trade Preferences to Small Developing Countries and the Welfare Costs of Lost Multilateral Liberalization

Limão, Nuno; Olarreaga, Marcelo
Fonte: Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank Publicador: Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
37.16%
The proliferation of preferential trade liberalization over the last 20 years has raised the question of whether it slows multilateral trade liberalization. Recent theoretical and empirical evidence indicates that this is the case even for unilateral preferences that developed countries provide to small and poor countries, but there is no estimate of the resulting welfare costs. This stumbling block effect can be avoided by replacing the unilateral preferences with a fixed import subsidy, which generates a Pareto improvement. More importantly, this paper presents the first estimates of the welfare cost of preferential liberalization as a stumbling block to multilateral liberalization. Recent estimates of the stumbling block effect of preferences with data for 170 countries and more than 5,000 products are used to calculate the welfare effects of the European Union, Japan, and the United States switching from unilateral preferences for least developed countries to an import subsidy scheme. In a model with no dynamic gains to trade...

Quantifying the Impact of Services Liberalization in a Developing Country

Konan, Denise Eby; Maskus, Keith E.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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37.29%
The authors consider how service liberalization differs from goods liberalization in terms of welfare, the level and composition of output, and factor prices within a developing economy, in this case Tunisia. Despite recent movements toward liberalization, Tunisian service sectors remain largely closed to foreign participation and are provided at high cost relative to many developing nations. The authors develop a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Tunisian economy with multiple products and services and three trading partners. They model goods liberalization as the unilateral removal of product tariffs. Restraints on services trade involve both restrictions on cross-border supply (mode 1 in the GATS) and on foreign ownership through foreign direct investment (mode 3 in the GATS). The former are modeled as tariff-equivalent price wedges while the latter are comprised of both monopoly-rent distortions (arising from imperfect competition among domestic producers) and inefficiency costs (arising from a failure of domestic service providers to adopt least-cost practices). They find that goods-trade liberalization yields a gain in aggregate welfare and reorients production toward sectors of benchmark comparative advantage. However...

Trade Liberalization, Firm Performance, and Labor Market Outcomes in the Developing World : What Can We Learn from Micro-Level Data?

Epifani, Paolo
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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37.21%
reviews the micro-level evidence on the effects of trade and investment liberalization in the developing world. He focuses, in particular, on the effects of the 1991 trade reform in India since it provides an excellent controlled experiment in which the effects of a drastic trade regime change can be measured. His main findings are: 1) There is evidence of trade-induced productivity gains (in this respect, however, India is an exception. 2) These gains mainly stem from intra-industry reallocation of resources among firms with different productivity levels. 3) The gains are larger in import-competing sectors. 4) There is no evidence of significant scale efficiency gains. Unilateral trade liberalization is often associated with a reduced scale efficiency. 5) There is evidence of a pro-competitive effect of trade liberalization. 6) There is no evidence either of learning-by-exporting effects or of beneficial spillover effects from foreign-owned to local firms active in the same sectors. 7) There is evidence...

Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain : The Effects of Financial Liberalization

Kaminsky, Graciela Laura; Schmukler, Sergio L.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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37.34%
The authors examine the short- and long-run effects of financial liberalization on capital markets. To do so, they construct a new comprehensive chronology of financial liberalization in 28 developed and emerging economies since 1973. The authors also construct an algorithm to identify booms and busts in stock market prices. The results indicate that financial liberalization is followed by more pronounced boom-bust cycles in the short run. But financial liberalization leads to more stable markets in the long run. Finally, the authors analyze the sequencing of liberalization and institutional reforms to understand the contrasting short- and long-run effects of liberalization.

Should Credit Be Given for Autonomous Liberalization in Multilateral Trade Negotiations?

Mattoo, Aaditya; Olarreaga, Marcelo
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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37.21%
As each new round of multilateral trade negotiations approaches, there is a demand for a negotiating rule that would give credit for autonomous (unilateral) liberalization. The authors show that the feasibility, and desirability of such a rule depend on when it is instituted. A credit rule established at the beginning of a round of negotiations has a primarily distributional effect, favoring those who have already undertaken liberalization. Implementing such a rule would depend on the generosity of those who have not liberalized. The authors propose instead establishing a credit rule at the end of a round of negotiations, which creates an ex-ante assurance that any unilateral liberalization will receive credit in the next round. Such a rule would help induce, or enhance liberalization in some countries between negotiating rounds, by reducing the gains from retaining protection as negotiating currency. More strikingly, it could also lead to deeper levels of multilateral liberalization, and induce other countries to go further than they would in the absence of a rule. Most important...

Multilateral Trade Liberalization and Political Disintegration : Implications for the Evolution of Free Trade Aareas and Customs Unions

Schiff, Maurice
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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37.16%
The author combines two theories - one about how multilateral trade liberalization affects regional integration, the other about how it affects political disintegration - to explain why the ratio of free trade areas to customs unions has increased over time. Ethier argues (1998, 1999) that multilateral trade liberalization led to the recent wave of regional integration arrangements. Alesina and others (1997), in discussing the number and size of countries, argue that multilateral trade liberalization leads to political disintegration, with an increase in the number of countries. Combining the two arguments, the author hypothesizes that as multilateral trade liberalization proceeds, and the number of regional integration arrangements increases, the ratio of free trade areas to customs unions also increases. The data, which show that ratio increasing in the 1990s, are consistent with the hypothesis.

The Earnings Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization : Implications for Poverty

Hertel, Thomas W.; Ivanic, Maros; Preckel, Paul V.; Cranfield, John A.L.
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Journal Article; Publications & Research :: Journal Article; Publications & Research
Português
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37.16%
Most researchers examining poverty and multilateral trade liberalization have had to examine average, or per capita effects, suggesting that if per capita real income rises, poverty will fall. This inference can be misleading. Combining results from a new international cross-section consumption analysis with earnings data from household surveys, this article analyzes the implications of multilateral trade liberalization for poverty in Indonesia. It finds that the aggregate reduction in Indonesia's national poverty headcount following global trade liberalization masks a more complex set of impacts across groups. In the short run the poverty headcount rises slightly for self-employed agricultural households, as agricultural profits fail to keep up with increases in consumer prices. In the long run the poverty headcount falls for all earnings strata, as increased demand for unskilled workers lifts incomes for the formerly self-employed, some of whom move into the wage labor market. A decomposition of the poverty changes in Indonesia associated with different countries' trade policies finds that reform in other countries leads to a reduction in poverty in Indonesia but that liberalization of Indonesia's trade policies leads to an increase. The method used here can be readily extended to any of the other 13 countries in the sample.

The Impact on Russia of WTO Accession and The Doha Agenda : The Importance of Liberalization of Barriers against Foreign Direct Investment in Services for Growth and Poverty Reduction

Rutherford, Thomas; Tarr, David; Shepotylo, Oleksandr
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
37.16%
Taking price changes from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model of world trade, the authors use a small open economy computable general equilibrium comparative static model of the Russian economy to assess the impact of global free trade and a successful completion of the Doha Agenda on the Russian economy, and especially on the poor. They compare those results with the impact of Russian accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on income distribution and the poor. The model incorporates all 55,000 households from the Russian Household Budget Survey as "real" households. Crucially, given the importance of foreign direct investment (FDI) liberalization as part of Russian WTO accession, the authors also include FDI and Dixit-Stiglitz endogenous productivity effects from liberalization of import barriers against goods and FDI in services. The authors estimate that Russian WTO accession in the medium run will result in gains averaged over all Russian households equal to 7.3 percent of Russian consumption (with a standard deviation of 2.2 percent of consumption), with virtually all households gaining. They find that global free trade would result in a weighted average gain to households in Russia of 0.2 percent of consumption...

Who Benefited from Trade Liberalization in Mexico? Measuring the Effects on Household Welfare

Nicita, Alessandro
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
37.26%
This study performs an ex-post analysis of the effects of the trade liberalization in Mexico between 1989 and 2000, taking into account regional differences in the Mexican economy. The effects of trade liberalization are first translated into changes in regional prices and wages. Those estimates are plugged into a farm-household model to estimate the effect on households' welfare. The findings suggest that trade liberalization has affected domestic prices and labor income differently both across income groups and geographically across the country, hence producing diverse outcomes on different households. Regarding prices, the results indicate that trade liberalization has lowered relative prices of most non-animal agricultural products and, while reducing the cost of consumption, has reduced households' agricultural income, widening the income gap between urban and rural areas. The findings also show that trade liberalization has had diverse effects on wage rates. Skilled workers, for which trade liberalization has produced an increase in wages...

Financial Liberalization and Allocative Efficiency of Capital

Kukenova, Madina
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
37.24%
Financial liberalization may have a positive effect on growth not only through the increase in the quantity of the available funds, but also through a more efficient allocation of resources across firms and sectors. Despite this intuitive appeal, there is little empirical evidence on the positive effect of financial liberalization on capital allocation. The main difficulty of investigating the linkage between liberalization of financial markets and capital allocation efficiency lies in the fact that the efficiency of capital allocation is not directly observable. One way to address this issue is to evaluate the effect of financial liberalization within the Heckscher-Ohlin framework. Producing and exporting products inconsistent with a country's factor endowments constitutes a serious misallocation of the funds, which undermines competitiveness of the economy and inhibits its long run growth. This paper tests the allocative efficiency hypothesis by evaluating the effect of stock market liberalization on the survival of different product categories using export data for 91 countries over the period of 1975-2003. Preliminary results suggest that after liberalization of the domestic stock market...

Capital Account Liberalization : Does Advanced Economy Experience Provide Lessons for China?

Chelsky, Jeff
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
Português
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37.16%
The initial post World War II pursuit of capital account liberalization (CAL) by advanced economies was Europe-centric, with roots in a broader political rather than economic agenda of greater European integration. In continental Europe, CAL was addressed mostly through the adoption of multilateral instruments and codes. In contrast, CAL by the United States and United Kingdom was pursued unilaterally, motivated by their status as global reserve currency issuers and global financial centers. China's situation is fundamentally different. China today has no equivalent to the European political motivation for CAL or the domestically driven financial motivation of the United States or the United Kingdom. And while China may have long-term aspirations to be a global reserve currency issuer, the extent to which it internationalizes its currency is constrained by powerful domestic economic and political interests that continue to benefit from an export-led growth model underpinned by a pegged and undervalued exchange rate...

WTO Safeguards and Trade Liberalization : Lessons from the Argentine Footwear Case

Baracat, Elías; Nogués, Julio J.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
37.24%
The footwear case provides an example of the complexities of World Trade Organization (WTO) rules on the use of safeguards, and of the interaction of multilateral and regional processes of liberalization. As a result both of Argentina's unilateral liberalization and the removal of barriers within Mercosur, imports of footwear increased rapidly. As Mercosur provides no intra-regional safeguard mechanism, the government of Argentina responded by applying import relief and WTO safeguards against third countries. The WTO Dispute Settlement Body addressed these measures and as a consequence, Argentina dismantled most of them, leading to four main conclusions: The jurisprudence of the WTO's Appellate Body has created serious uncertainty as to when a country can use safeguards. This does not contribute to the political balance that has to be maintained when developing countries implement trade liberalization programs. In fact, it detracts from this crucial goal. It is an error to negotiate ambiguous multilateral agreements on the expectation that the WTO Dispute Settlement mechanism will clarify them. An overvalued currency heightened the industry's problems. In the case of footwear, the decline in imports following the recent devaluation was more important than that following the implementation of earlier relief measures. The political economy of liberalization also indicates the need for regional agreements to include adequate transition mechanisms that will facilitate adjustment to free trade and to maintain support for it.

Antidumping and Safeguard Measures in the Political Economy of Liberalization : The Mexican Case

de la Torre, Luz Elena Reyes; González, Jorge G.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
37.16%
Mexico's creation and use of safeguard and antidumping processes to advance its liberalization illustrate three key points: (1) The country was able to use the instruments without losing political control. In a period of crisis that threatened congressional approval of critical steps in the liberalization-brought on by currency overvaluation and recession, along with unexpected demands from the United States in the North American Free Trade Agreement negotiations-the government applied a number of trade defense measures. Once the problems were addressed with adequate instruments the number of measures dropped drastically. The instruments had not been captured by protection-seeking interests; (2) The country adopted a liberalization-accepting measure of international norms. An important innovation that Mexico made operational was the use within World Trade Organization (WTO) rules of prevailing international prices as the measure of competition that industry was expected to meet. The WTO rules would also have allowed the use of other standards-as in traditional antidumping-using countries-that impose less discipline. Moreover, the Mexican standard was consistent with the government-industry understanding that though Mexican industry would be protected against extraordinary circumstances it would be expected to face up to international competition; (3) Political judgment and political courage are essential. While mastery of the technical elements of a safeguard or antidumping investigation is mandatory...

Preferential Liberalization and Its Economy-Wide Effects in Honduras

Medvedev, Denis
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
37.19%
This paper quantifies the likely benefits of trade and investment liberalization in a small, poor, open economy, using the accession of Honduras to the Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement as a case study. The results show that bilateral trade liberalization with the United States is likely to have almost no effect on welfare in Honduras, while the reciprocal removal of protection vis-a-vis the rest of Central America would lead to significantly larger gains. Potential gains from increased net foreign direct investment inflows overwhelm those expected from trade reform alone, particularly if the new foreign direct investment generates productivity spillovers. However, if it is to replace Honduran investment rather than complement domestic capital formation, growth performance is unlikely to improve and may even suffer. The paper's results identify several areas for policy attention by Honduran policy makers to make the Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement more development-friendly. These include carefully considering the budgetary implications of trade reform...

Does Financial Liberalization Relax Financing Constraints on Firms?

Laeven, Luc
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
37.21%
The author uses panel data on 394 firms in 13 developing countries for the years 1988-98 to learn whether financial liberalization relaxes financing constraints on firms. He finds that liberalization affects small and large firms differently. Small firms are financially constrained before liberalization begins but become less so after liberalization. The financing constraints on large firms, however, are low both before and after liberalization. The initial difference between small and large firms disappears over time. The author hypothesizes that financial liberalization has little effect on the financing constraints of large firms because they have better access to preferential directed credit in the period before liberalization. Financial liberalization also reduces imperfections in financial markets, especially the asymmetric information costs of firms' financial leverage. Countries that liberalize their financial sectors tend to see dramatic improvements in political climate as well. Successful financial liberalization seems to require both the political will and the ability to stop the preferential treatment of well-connected...