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Arbitrage pricing theory in international markets; Teoria de apreçamento arbitragem aplicada a mercados internacionais

Bernat, Liana Oliveira
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 05/09/2011 Português
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36.19%
This dissertation studies the impact of multiple pre-specified sources of risk in the return of three non-overlapping groups of countries, through an Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) model. The groups are composed of emerging and developed markets. Emerging markets have become important players in the world economy, especially as capital receptors, but they were not included in the majority of previous related works. Two strategies are used to choose two set of risk factors. The first one is to use macroeconomic variables, as prescribed by most of the literature, such as world excess return, exchange rates, variation in the spread between Eurodollar deposit tax and U.S. Treasury bill (TED spread) and change in the oil price. The second strategy is to extract factors by using a principal component analysis, designated as statistical factors. The first important result is a great resemblance between the first statistical factor and the world excess return. We estimate the APT model using two statistical methodologies: Iterated Nonlinear Seemingly Unrelated Regression (ITNLSUR) by McElroy and Burmeister (1988) and the Generalized Method Moments (GMM) by Hansen (1982). The results from both methods are very similar. With macroeconomic variables...

Arbitragem nos mercados financeiros: uma proposta bayesiana de verificação; Arbitrage in financial markets: a Bayesian approach for verification

Cerezetti, Fernando Valvano
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 20/05/2013 Português
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Hipóteses precisas são características naturais das teorias econômicas de determinação do valor ou preço de ativos financeiros. Nessas teorias, a precisão das hipóteses assume a forma do conceito de equilíbrio ou da não arbitragem. Esse último possui um papel fundamental nas teorias de finanças. Sob certas condições, o Teorema Fundamental do Apreçamento de Ativos estabelece um sistema único e coerente para valorização dos ativos em mercados não arbitrados, valendo-se para tal das formulações para processos de martingal. A análise da distribuição estatística desses ativos financeiros ajuda no entendimento de como os participantes se comportam nos mercados, gerando assim as condições para se arbitrar. Nesse sentido, a tese defendida é a de que o estudo da hipótese de não arbitragem possui contrapartida científica, tanto do lado teórico quanto do empírico. Utilizando-se do modelo estocástico Variância Gama para os preços dos ativos, o teste Bayesiano FBST é implementado com o intuito de se verificar a existência da arbitragem nos mercados, potencialmente expressa nos parâmetros destas densidades. Especificamente, a distribuição do Índice Bovespa é investigada, com os parâmetros risco-neutros sendo estimados baseandose nas opções negociadas no Segmento de Ações e no Segmento de Derivativos da BM&FBovespa. Os resultados aparentam indicar diferenças estatísticas significantes em alguns períodos de tempo. Até que ponto esta evidência é a expressão de uma arbitragem perene nesses mercados ainda é uma questão em aberto.; Precise hypotheses are natural characteristics of the economic theories for determining the value or prices of financial assets. Within these theories the precision is expressed in terms of equilibrium and non-arbitrage hypotheses. The former concept plays an essential role in the theories of finance. Under certain conditions...

International Financial Integration through the Law of One Price

Levy Yeyati, Eduardo; Schmukler, Sergio L.; Van Horen, Neeltje
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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36.34%
The authors argue that the cross-market premium (the ratio between the domestic and the international market price of cross-listed stocks) provides a valuable measure of international financial integration, reflecting accurately the factors that segment markets and inhibit price arbitrage. Applying to equity markets recent methodological developments in the purchasing power parity literature, they show that nonlinear Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) models properly capture the behavior of the cross market premium. The estimates reveal the presence of narrow non-arbitrage bands and indicate that price differences outside these bands are rapidly arbitraged away, much faster than what has been documented for good markets. Moreover, the authors find that financial integration increases with market liquidity. Capital controls, when binding, contribute to segment financial markets by widening the non-arbitrage bands and making price disparities more persistent. Crisis episodes are associated with higher volatility, rather than by more persistent deviations from the law of one price.

The Development and Regulation of Non-Bank Financial Institutions

Carmichael, Jeffrey; Pomerleano, Michael
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Português
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35.97%
Non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) are becoming an increasingly important segment of the financial system in some developing countries. This book aims to create awareness of the promise of NBFIs for developing countries and to assist policymakers in creating a coherent policy structure and a sound regulatory and supervisory environment for their development. The first chapter offers a coherent policy framework for addressing the regulation of NBFIs and the second chapter addresses the principles for regulation. Subsequent chapters provide an overview of the insurance industry, mutual funds and pension schemes, leasing and real estate companies, and securities markets, and discusses the specific regulatory framework for these institutions. The final chapter explores development policy challenges confronting emerging markets.

Republic of Kazakhstan Tax Strategy Paper : Volume 1. A Strategic Plan for Increasing the Neutrality of the Tax System in Non-Extractive Sectors

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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35.9%
This study focuses on the tax system for non-subsurface users in Kazakhstan. It takes as given the tax reform package that the authorities and stakeholders are designing, but proposes a number of additional steps to be taken over the next 2-3 years aimed at maximizing the benefits of tax neutrality on competitiveness. The first volume of this report mainly focuses on tax policy: taxes on labor, capital, and consumption. A draft report on administration was also produced for discussion, which includes an initial assessment for organization, planning and staffing, a large taxpayers unit, anti-corruption issues, taxpayer services and education, audit and inspections, collection activities, and legal issues and appeal. The second volume of the tax strategy paper examines tax administration issues, and identifies functional areas that require attention in the short, medium and longer-term. This examination represents an initial diagnostic and is not a final blueprint for modernization. The nine areas diagnosed are: organizational structure...

Econometric implications of non-exact present value models

González, Martín; Gonzalo, Jesús
Fonte: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid Publicador: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /03/2000 Português
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35.94%
One of the most commonly used and, at the same time, rejected models in nance and macroeconomics is the exact present value model (PVM), where a variable Yt is expressed as the expected value at time t of the sum of discounted future values of another variable Xt. This paper extends the PVM by making it non-exact (NEPVM) in a simple way, allowing us to study situations where there are transitory deviations from the exact PVM. The proposed NEPVM is derived from similar non-arbitrage or equilibrium conditions the exact PVM comes from and it can explain some stylized economic facts that cannot be explained by exact PVMs. The rejection of the exact PVM produced by the standard volatility and cross-equation restriction tests is not enough to reject the NEPVM. We present the new variance bounds and crossequation restrictions implied by the NEPVM and we show how to test them. The paper nishes by analyzing empirically the cases of stock prices and dividends, and short- and longterm interest rates. For these cases we are unable to reject a simple NEPVM. This fact, together with the theoretical results contained in the paper, suggests that the proposed NEPVM could be compatible with some of the empirical finndings in the literature.

Four essays on the interaction between credit derivatives and fixed income markets

Mayordomo, Sergio
Fonte: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid Publicador: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis; info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis Formato: application/octet-stream; application/octet-stream; application/pdf
Português
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In this thesis, I study the interaction between Credit Derivatives and Fixed Income Markets, both corporate and sovereign, from different perspectives. In the case of corporate, I study arbitrage, price discovery and financial integration. In the case of sovereign, I focus on the European Monetary Union (EMU) sovereign bond market and analyze the potential arrival of a common risk free rate for the EMU and the advantages derived from it. First, we analyze long-run and statistical arbitrage opportunities in credit deriva- tives markets using strategies combining Credit Default Swaps (CDSs) and Asset Swaps (ASPs). We present a new statistical arbitrage test which has lower Type I error and selects arbitrage opportunities with lower downside risk than existing alternatives. This test allows us to study for arbitrage opportunities in the appropriate way by focusing our analysis on the cases in which long positions in CDSs and ASPs are needed. Using four di¤erent databases from 2005 to 2009, we find long-run and statistical arbitrage opportunities before the current crisis in 27% and 29% of the cases, respectively. During the crisis, they decrease to 9% and 17%, respectively. Specifically, CDS spreads are too low in comparison with asset swap spreads. This fact puts into question the e¢ ciency of this segment of the CDS market. After considering funding and trading costs...

Contrat de cyberconsommation et arbitrage : les leçons de l'arrêt Dell

Cohen, Miriam G.
Fonte: Université de Montréal Publicador: Université de Montréal
Tipo: Thèse ou Mémoire numérique / Electronic Thesis or Dissertation
Português
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En juillet 2007, la Cour suprême du Canada s’est prononcée pour la première fois sur un litige lié au commerce électronique et dont les faits sont nés au Québec. L’affaire est d’une grande banalité : un contrat de consommation conclu par la voie de l’internet donna lieu à un litige car le prix proposé par le commerçant était erroné. Dans ce jugement historique, la Cour suprême a renversé les décisions des cours inférieures et est allée dans la direction contraire d’une modification législative adoptée le lendemain des auditions à la Cour, qui ne s’appliquait pas au cas en l’espèce. Ce jugement a causé des débats non seulement sur ce que la Cour a dit, mais aussi quant à l’opportunité qui lui était offerte de clarifier plusieurs questions d’importance. Ce mémoire utilise l’affaire Dell comme fil conducteur de l’étude du contrat de cyberconsommation et traite aussi de certaines questions incidentes sur ce droit en constant changement. En premier lieu, nous étudions le contrat de cyberconsommation et ensuite nous examinons le fond de l’affaire, une question qui n’a d’ailleurs pas encore reçu une analyse judiciaire. Dans la dernière partie, nous faisons une analyse critique des questions juridiques traitées par la Cour suprême. Nous concluons en remarquant que la Cour a perdu une occasion unique de clarifier certaines incongruïtés du droit de la cyberconsommation.; In July 2007...

Volatility smile and stochastic arbitrage returns

Fedotov, Sergei; Panayides, Stephanos
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 27/05/2004 Português
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26.36%
The purpose of this work is to explore the role that random arbitrage opportunities play in pricing financial derivatives. We use a non-equilibrium model to set up a stochastic portfolio, and for the random arbitrage return, we choose a stationary ergodic random process rapidly varying in time. We exploit the fact that option price and random arbitrage returns change on different time scales which allows us to develop an asymptotic pricing theory involving the central limit theorem for random processes. We restrict ourselves to finding pricing bands for options rather than exact prices. The resulting pricing bands are shown to be independent of the detailed statistical characteristics of the arbitrage return. We find that the volatility ``smile'' can also be explained in terms of random arbitrage opportunities.; Comment: 15 pages, 3 figures. The paper was accepted for publication in Physica A

Pricing rule based on non-arbitrage arguments for random volatility and volatility smile

Dokuchaev, Nikolai
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 10/05/2002 Português
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36.07%
We consider a generic market model with a single stock and with random volatility. We assume that there is a number of tradable options for that stock with different strike prices. The paper states the problem of finding a pricing rule that gives Black-Scholes price for at-money options and such that the market is arbitrage free for any number of tradable options, even if there are two Brownian motions only: one drives the stock price, the other drives the volatility process. This problem is reduced to solving a parabolic equation.; Comment: 18 pages

Arbitrage and Hedging in a non probabilistic framework

Alvarez, Alexander; Ferrando, Sebastian; Olivares, Pablo
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 05/03/2011 Português
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26.46%
The paper studies the concepts of hedging and arbitrage in a non probabilistic framework. It provides conditions for non probabilistic arbitrage based on the topological structure of the trajectory space and makes connections with the usual notion of arbitrage. Several examples illustrate the non probabilistic arbitrage as well perfect replication of options under continuous and discontinuous trajectories, the results can then be applied in probabilistic models path by path. The approach is related to recent financial models that go beyond semimartingales, we remark on some of these connections and provide applications of our results to some of these models.

Non-Arbitrage Under Additional Information for Thin Semimartingale Models

Aksamit, Anna; Choulli, Tahir; Deng, Jun; Jeanblanc, Monique
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 05/05/2015 Português
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46.14%
This paper completes the two studies undertaken in \cite{aksamit/choulli/deng/jeanblanc2} and \cite{aksamit/choulli/deng/jeanblanc3}, where the authors quantify the impact of a random time on the No-Unbounded-Risk-with-Bounded-Profit concept (called NUPBR hereafter) when the stock price processes are quasi-left-continuous (do not jump on predictable stopping times). Herein, we focus on the NUPBR for semimartingales models that live on thin predictable sets only and the progressive enlargement with a random time. For this flow of information, we explain how far the NUPBR property is affected when one stops the model by an arbitrary random time or when one incorporates fully an honest time into the model. This also generalizes \cite{choulli/deng} to the case when the jump times are not ordered in anyway. Furthermore, for the current context, we show how to construct explicitly local martingale deflator under the bigger filtration from those of the smaller filtration.; Comment: This paper develops the part of thin and single jump processes mentioned in our earlier version: "Non-arbitrage up to random horizon and after honest times for semimartingale models", Available at: arXiv:1310.1142v1. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1404.0410

Default times, non arbitrage conditions and change of probability measures

Coculescu, Delia; Jeanblanc, Monique; Nikeghbali, Ashkan
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 21/12/2008 Português
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In this paper we give a financial justification, based on non arbitrage conditions, of the $(H)$ hypothesis in default time modelling. We also show how the $(H)$ hypothesis is affected by an equivalent change of probability measure. The main technique used here is the theory of progressive enlargements of filtrations.

How Non-Arbitrage, Viability and Num\'eraire Portfolio are Related

Choulli, Tahir; Deng, Jun; Ma, Junfeng
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.07%
This paper proposes two approaches that quantify the exact relationship among the viability, the absence of arbitrage, and/or the existence of the num\'eraire portfolio under minimal assumptions and for general continuous-time market models. Precisely, our first and principal contribution proves the equivalence among the No-Unbounded-Profit-with-Bounded-Risk condition (NUPBR hereafter), the existence of the num\'eraire portfolio, and the existence of the optimal portfolio under an equivalent probability measure for any "nice" utility and positive initial capital. Herein, a 'nice" utility is any smooth von Neumann-Morgenstern utility satisfying Inada's conditions and the elasticity assumptions of Kramkov and Schachermayer. Furthermore, the equivalent probability measure ---under which the utility maximization problems have solutions--- can be chosen as close to the real-world probability measure as we want (but might not be equal). Without changing the underlying probability measure and under mild assumptions, our second contribution proves that the NUPBR is equivalent to the "{\it local}" existence of the optimal portfolio. This constitutes an alternative to the first contribution, if one insists on working under the real-world probability. These two contributions lead naturally to new types of viability that we call weak and local viabilities.; Comment: 21 pages

Stochastic arbitrage return and its implications for option pricing

Fedotov, Sergei; Panayides, Stephanos
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 30/03/2004 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.36%
The purpose of this work is to explore the role that arbitrage opportunities play in pricing financial derivatives. We use a non-equilibrium model to set up a stochastic portfolio, and for the random arbitrage return, we choose a stationary ergodic random process rapidly varying in time. We exploit the fact that option price and random arbitrage returns change on different time scales which allows us to develop an asymptotic pricing theory involving the central limit theorem for random processes. We restrict ourselves to finding pricing bands for options rather than exact prices. The resulting pricing bands are shown to be independent of the detailed statistical characteristics of the arbitrage return. We find that the volatility "smile" can also be explained in terms of random arbitrage opportunities.; Comment: 14 pages, 3 fiqures

Gauge Invariance, Geometry and Arbitrage

Vazquez, Samuel E.; Farinelli, Simone
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 20/08/2009 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.39%
In this work, we identify the most general measure of arbitrage for any market model governed by It\^o processes. We show that our arbitrage measure is invariant under changes of num\'{e}raire and equivalent probability. Moreover, such measure has a geometrical interpretation as a gauge connection. The connection has zero curvature if and only if there is no arbitrage. We prove an extension of the Martingale pricing theorem in the case of arbitrage. In our case, the present value of any traded asset is given by the expectation of future cash-flows discounted by a line integral of the gauge connection. We develop simple strategies to measure arbitrage using both simulated and real market data. We find that, within our limited data sample, the market is efficient at time horizons of one day or longer. However, we provide strong evidence for non-zero arbitrage in high frequency intraday data. Such events seem to have a decay time of the order of one minute.; Comment: 45 pages, 15 figures

Non-Arbitrage under a Class of Honest Times

Choulli, Tahir; Aksamit, Anna; Deng, Jun; Jeanblanc, Monique
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 01/04/2014 Português
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This paper addresses the question of non-arbitrage (precisely No-Unbounded-Profit-with-Bounded-Risk, NUPBR hereafter) after a specific random time. This study completes the one of Aksamit et al. \cite{aksamit/choulli/deng/jeanblanc}, devoted to the study before the random time, by elaborating results for the part after the random time under consideration. We restrict our attention to honest times, and we characterize the pairs of market and honest time for which the resulting model preserves the NUPBR property. Furthermore, we characterize the honest times that preserve the NUPBR property. These findings are essentially based on new stochastic results that are interesting in themselves. Furthermore, we construct explicitly local martingale deflators for a large class of processes.; Comment: 31 pages. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1310.1142

Non-arbitrage for Informational Discrete Time Market Models

Choulli, Tahir; Deng, Jun
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 05/07/2014 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.46%
This paper focuses on the stability of the non-arbitrage condition in discrete time market models when some unknown information $\tau$ is partially/fully incorporated into the market. Our main conclusions are twofold. On the one hand, for a fixed market $S$, we prove that the non-arbitrage condition is preserved under a mild condition. On the other hand, we give the necessary and sufficient equivalent conditions on the unknown information $\tau$ to ensure the validity of the non-arbitrage condition for any market. Two concrete examples are presented to illustrate the importance of these conditions, where we calculate explicitly the arbitrage opportunities when they exist.; Comment: 22 pages

Non-Arbitrage up to Random Horizon for Semimartingale Models

Aksamit, Anna; Choulli, Tahir; Deng, Jun; Jeanblanc, Monique
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.38%
This paper addresses the question of how an arbitrage-free semimartingale model is affected when stopped at a random horizon. We focus on No-Unbounded-Profit-with-Bounded-Risk (called NUPBR hereafter) concept, which is also known in the literature as the first kind of non-arbitrage. For this non-arbitrage notion, we obtain two principal results. The first result lies in describing the pairs of market model and random time for which the resulting stopped model fulfills NUPBR condition. The second main result characterises the random time models that preserve the NUPBR property after stopping for any market model. These results are elaborated in a very general market model, and we also pay attention to some particular and practical models. The analysis that drives these results is based on new stochastic developments in semimartingale theory with progressive enlargement. Furthermore, we construct explicit martingale densities (deflators) for some classes of local martingales when stopped at random time.; Comment: 40 pages. This version develops in details the ideas and the results of the previous version and fixes a glitch in the quasi-left-continuous case

Arbitrage-free prediction of the implied volatility smile

Dellaportas, Petros; Mijatović, Aleksandar
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 21/07/2014 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.38%
This paper gives an arbitrage-free prediction for future prices of an arbitrary co-terminal set of options with a given maturity, based on the observed time series of these option prices. The statistical analysis of such a multi-dimensional time series of option prices corresponding to $n$ strikes (with $n$ large, e.g. $n\geq 40$) and the same maturity, is a difficult task due to the fact that option prices at any moment in time satisfy non-linear and non-explicit no-arbitrage restrictions. Hence any $n$-dimensional time series model also has to satisfy these implicit restrictions at each time step, a condition that is impossible to meet since the model innovations can take arbitrary values. We solve this problem for any $n\in\NN$ in the context of Foreign Exchange (FX) by first encoding the option prices at each time step in terms of the parameters of the corresponding risk-neutral measure and then performing the time series analysis in the parameter space. The option price predictions are obtained from the predicted risk-neutral measure by effectively integrating it against the corresponding option payoffs. The non-linear transformation between option prices and the risk-neutral parameters applied here is \textit{not} arbitrary: it is the standard mapping used by market makers in the FX option markets (the SABR parameterisation) and is given explicitly in closed form. Our method is not restricted to the FX asset class nor does it depend on the type of parameterisation used. Statistical analysis of FX market data illustrates that our arbitrage-free predictions outperform the naive random walk forecasts...