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O impacto da exigência de margem sobre os preços dos ativos; The impact of margin requirements on assets prices

Castelli, Luiz Fernando
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 11/07/2014 Português
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O trabalho busca responder: i) se a exigência de margem é capaz de afetar os preços dos ativos em períodos de iliquidez; ii) como as margens são fixadas. A primeira pergunta está relacionada ao modelo Margem CAPM de Gârleanu & Pedersen (2011), que indicam a existência da relação entre a exigência de margem associada a problemas de funding do mercado com os preços dos ativos. A segunda pergunta está relacionada ao trabalho de Brunnermeier & Pedersen (2009) que descrevem o fenômeno Espiral de Liquidez relacionado ao comportamento pró-cíclico das margens, que seriam função da volatilidade dos preços dos ativos. Utilizaram-se dados do mercado acionário brasileiro e exigências de margem divulgadas pela BM&F Bovespa para o período de jan/2008 até dez/2012 para responder tais perguntas. A evidência empírica encontrada no trabalho aponta que a exigência de margem afeta os preços dos ativos em momentos ilíquidos, como descrito pelo modelo Margem CAPM. Porém, tal fenômeno é restrito apenas a ações de empresas pequenas. De acordo com o exercício realizado, o portfólio Long Short de empresas pequenas, onde a estratégia é long em ativos de empresas com alta exigência de margem e short em ativos de baixa exigência de margem...

Essays on the Economics of Risk and Financial Markets

Turley, Robert Staffan
Fonte: Harvard University Publicador: Harvard University
Tipo: Thesis or Dissertation
Português
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Prices in financial markets are primarily driven by the interaction of risk and time. The returns to financial assets over long time horizons are primarily driven by fundamental news regarding their promised cash flows. In contrast, short-run price variation is associated with a large degree of predictable, transient investor trading behavior unrelated to fundamental prospects. The quantity of long-run risk directly affects economic well-being, and its magnitude has varied significantly over the past century. The theoretical model presented here shows some success in quantifying the impact of news about future risks on asset prices. In particular, some investing strategies that appear to offer anomalously large returns are associated with high exposures to future long-run risks. The historical returns to these portfolios are partly a result of investors’ distaste for assets whose worth declines when uncertainty increases. The financial sector is tasked with pricing these risks in a way that properly allocates investment resources. Over the past thirty years, this sector has grown much more rapidly than the economy as a whole. As a result, asset prices appear to be more informative. However, the new information relates to short-term uncertainty...

Pricing of Deposit Insurance

Laeven, Luc
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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The author aims to provide guidelines for the pricing of deposit insurance in different countries. He presents several methodologies that can be used to set benchmarks for the pricing level of deposit insurance in a country, and quantifies how specific design features affect the cost of deposit insurance. The author makes several contributions to our understanding of what drives the price of deposit insurance. For example, he shows how risk diversification and risk differentiation within a deposit insurance system can reduce the price of deposit insurance. The author also finds that deposit insurance is under-priced in many countries around the world, notably in several developing countries. More important, his estimates suggest that many countries cannot afford deposit insurance. Deposit insurance is unlikely to be a viable option in a country with weak banks and institutions. The author does not recommend a funded deposit insurance scheme, but rather he argues that for countries that have adopted or are adopting deposit insurance and have decided to pre-fund it...

Strategic Interactions and Portfolio Choice in Money Management : Evidence from Colombian Pension Funds

Pedraza Morales, Alvaro
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Português
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This paper studies the portfolio choice of strategic fund managers in the presence of a peer-based underperformance penalty. Evidence is taken from the Colombian pension fund management industry, where six asset managers are in charge of portfolio allocation for the mandatory contributions of the working population. These managers are subject to a peer-based underperformance penalty, known as the Minimum Return Guarantee. The trading behavior by the managers is studied before and after a change in the strictness of the guarantee in June 2007. The evidence suggests that a tighter minimum return guarantee results in more trading in the direction of peers, a behavior that is more pronounced for underperforming managers. These managers rebalance their portfolios by buying securities in which they are underexposed relative to their peers, as opposed to selling assets in which they are overexposed. Overall, the results suggest that incentives for managers to be close to industry benchmarks play an important role in the portfolio allocation of these funds.

Option pricing and Esscher transform under regime switching

Elliott, R.; Chan, L.; Siu, T.
Fonte: Springer-Verlag Publicador: Springer-Verlag
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2005 Português
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We consider the option pricing problem when the risky underlying assets are driven by Markov-modulated Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM). That is, the market parameters, for instance, the market interest rate, the appreciation rate and the volatility of the underlying risky asset, depend on unobservable states of the economy which are modelled by a continuous-time Hidden Markov process. The market described by the Markov-modulated GBM model is incomplete in general and, hence, the martingale measure is not unique. We adopt a regime switching random Esscher transform to determine an equivalent martingale pricing measure. As in Miyahara [33], we can justify our pricing result by the minimal entropy martingale measure (MEMM).; Robert J. Elliott, Leunglung Chan and Tak Kuen Siu

State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2014

Kossoy, Alexandre; Oppermann, Klaus; Platonova-Oquab, Alexandrina; Suphachalasai, Suphachol; Höhne, Niklas; Klein, Noémie; Gilbert, Alyssa; Lam, Long; Toop, Gemma; Wu, Qian; Hagemann, Markus; Casanova-Allende, Carlos; Li, Lina; Borkent, Bram; Warnecke,
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
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This report follows the evolution of carbon pricing around the world. Last year's report mapped the main carbon pricing initiatives. This year the report presents the status of each of these developing initiatives and explores the emerging trends of carbon pricing. The focus is on the recent highlights from around the world and on key lessons that can be drawn from the growing experience. Despite the difficult ongoing international climate negotiations, there is an increased focus on climate change policy and several economies are planning, implementing or refining domestic mitigation actions. These activities take careful note of past experiences, mirroring successes and dealing with weaknesses. About 40 national and over 20 sub-national jurisdictions are putting a price on carbon. Together these carbon pricing instruments cover almost 6 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e), or about 12 percent of the annual global GHG emissions. Cooperation remains a key feature of success The international market has been struggling for some time. However...

Formação do preço de opções: utilização de um modelo alternativo para a formação do preço de opção sobre futuro de dólar e comparação com o modelo de Black ; Option pricing: utilization of an alternative option pricing model to price dollar futures options and comparison with Black's model

Mello, Alexandre Andrade de
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 27/09/2005 Português
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A utilização do modelo de Black-Scholes e suas extensões na precificação de opções é bastante difundida tanto na academia quanto no mercado financeiro. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o desempenho de um modelo alternativo de precificação de opções em relação ao do modelo de Black na precificação de opções sobre futuro de dólar. Mais especificamente, a partir de hipóteses sobre o comportamento agregado da economia, da trajetória de preços de ativos e das preferências a risco dos agentes econômicos, é possível reconciliar uma condição de equilíbrio parcial, necessária para a precificação de opções, com uma condição de equilíbrio geral da economia. Essa reconciliação é obtida a partir da escolha cuidadosa de pares de preferências a risco e distribuições e possibilita a obtenção do preço de equilíbrio livre de preferências de um derivativo lançado sobre um dado ativo-objeto. O presente estudo utiliza os resultados de uma generalização recente feita por Câmara (2003), que demonstrou como distribuições e preferências podem ser combinadas de forma que se obtenham fórmulas fechadas para precificação de opções. Particularmente, assume-se que os preços do contrato futuro de dólar possuem distribuição lognormal com assimetria negativa...

Precificação de contratoas inflexiveis de energia eletrica : rentabilidade e impacto de encargos e tibutos; Pricing electricity inflexible contracts : profitability and impact of charges and taxes

Laura Keiko Gunn
Fonte: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp Publicador: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 29/07/2008 Português
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A precificação de contratos de energia elétrica no mercado brasileiro é um tema cuja dificuldade decorre principalmente por ser um mercado novo, sem um longo histórico de preços. Esta dissertação oferece uma contribuição situada em dois focos: a precificação de contratos de compra e venda de energia elétrica inflexíveis (opção e termo) no Ambiente de Contratação Livre e o impacto de encargos e tributos na rentabilidade destes contratos. Diferentes tipos de contratos têm sido utilizados no mercado livre de energia. Os contratos (termo e opção) inflexíveis foram selecionados por serem os mais frequentemente praticados no mercado. O modelo de latisse binomial é a principal ferramenta de precificação usada neste trabalho. Esta técnica é bastante conhecida no mercado financeiro para a precificação de contratos de opções. Aqui esta técnica será utilizada para calcular o valor esperado do Preço de Liquidação de Diferenças-PLD, valor esperado do Encargo de Serviço do Sistema-ESS, valor esperado de um contrato-a-termo e o valor esperado de um contrato de opção. No contexto deste trabalho, precificação compreende determinar medidas de benefício e risco unitário (R$/MWh), pois as decisões de contratação são instruídas pelo preço da energia negociada (R$/MWh)...

Management of Indexed Government Debt: Assessing the Case for an Inflation-Indexed Bond

Chen, Andrew; Chen, Elaine T; Terrell, Richard
Fonte: Inderscience Publishers Publicador: Inderscience Publishers
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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Since The US Treasury's issuance of the inflation-protection securities (TIPS) in January 1997, there has been a great deal of renewed interest in studying various aspects of inflation-indexed bonds. This paper develops an equilibrium capital asset pricin

Option pricing with log-stable L\'{e}vy processes

Repetowicz, Przemysław; Richmond, Peter
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 22/12/2006 Português
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We model the logarithm of the price (log-price) of a financial asset as a random variable obtained by projecting an operator stable random vector with a scaling index matrix $\underline{\underline{E}}$ onto a non-random vector. The scaling index $\underline{\underline{E}}$ models prices of the individual financial assets (stocks, mutual funds, etc.). We find the functional form of the characteristic function of real powers of the price returns and we compute the expectation value of these real powers and we speculate on the utility of these results for statistical inference. Finally we consider a portfolio composed of an asset and an option on that asset. We derive the characteristic function of the deviation of the portfolio, \mbox{${\mathfrak D}_t^{({\mathfrak t})}$}, defined as a temporal change of the portfolio diminished by the the compound interest earned. We derive pseudo-differential equations for the option as a function of the log-stock-price and time and we find exact closed-form solutions to that equation. These results were not known before. Finally we discuss how our solutions correspond to other approximate results known from literature,in particular to the well known Black & Scholes equation.; Comment: 17 pages, proofs excluded due to space constraints...

Stochastic Spot/Volatility Correlation in Stochastic Volatility Models and Barrier Option Pricing

Higgins, Mark
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 15/04/2014 Português
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Most models for barrier pricing are designed to let a market maker tune the model-implied covariance between moves in the asset spot price and moves in the implied volatility skew. This is often implemented with a local volatility/stochastic volatility mixture model, where the mixture parameter tunes that covariance. This paper defines an alternate model where the spot/volatility correlation is a separate mean-reverting stochastic variable which is itself correlated with spot. We also develop an efficient approximation for barrier option and one touch pricing in the model based on semi-static vega replication and compare it with Monte Carlo pricing. The approximation works well in markets where the risk neutral drift is modest.; Comment: 23 pages, 11 figures

Improved Frechet bounds and model-free pricing of multi-asset options

Tankov, Peter
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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Improved bounds on the copula of a bivariate random vector are computed when partial information is available, such as the values of the copula on a given subset of $[0,1]^2$, or the value of a functional of the copula, monotone with respect to the concordance order. These results are then used to compute model-free bounds on the prices of two-asset options which make use of extra information about the dependence structure, such as the price of another two-asset option.; Comment: Replaced with revised version

Heat Kernel Interest Rate Models with Time-Inhomogeneous Markov Processes

Akahori, Jiro; Macrina, Andrea
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 08/12/2010 Português
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We consider a heat kernel approach for the development of stochastic pricing kernels. The kernels are constructed by positive propagators, which are driven by time-inhomogeneous Markov processes. We multiply such a propagator with a positive, time-dependent and decreasing weight function, and integrate the product over time. The result is a so-called weighted heat kernel that by construction is a supermartingale with respect to the filtration generated by the time-inhomogeneous Markov processes. As an application, we show how this framework naturally fits the information-based asset pricing framework where time-inhomogeneous Markov processes are utilized to model partial information about random economic factors. We present examples of pricing kernel models which lead to analytical formulae for bond prices along with explicit expressions for the associated interest rate and market price of risk. Furthermore, we also address the pricing of fixed-income derivatives within this framework.

Ethics and Finance: the role of mathematics

Johnson, Timothy C.
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 19/10/2012 Português
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This paper presents the contemporary Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing as being equivalent to approaches to pricing that emerged before 1700 in the context of Virtue Ethics. This is done by considering the history of science and mathematics in the thirteenth and seventeenth century. An explanation as to why these approaches to pricing were forgotten between 1700 and 2000 is given, along with some of the implications on economics of viewing the Fundamental Theorem as a product of Virtue Ethics. The Fundamental Theorem was developed in mathematics to establish a `theory' that underpinned the Black-Scholes-Merton approach to pricing derivatives. In doing this, the Fundamental Theorem unified a number of different approaches in financial economics, this strengthened the status of neo-classical economics based on Consequentialist Ethics. We present an alternative to this narrative.

A Finite Element Framework for Option Pricing with the Bates Model

Miglio, Edie; Sgarra, Carlo
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 16/12/2008 Português
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In the present paper we present a finite element approach for option pricing in the framework of a well-known stochastic volatility model with jumps, the Bates model. In this model the asset log-returns are assumed to follow a jump-diffusion model where the jump component consists of a Levy process of compound Poisson type, while the volatility behavior is described by a stochastic differential equation of CIR type, with a mean-reverting drift term and a diffusion component correlated with that of the log-returns. Like in all the Levy models, the option pricing problem can be formulated in terms of an integro-differential equation: for the Bates model the unknown F(S, V, t) (the option price) of the pricing equation depends on three independent variables and the differential operator part turns out to be of parabolic kind, while the nonlocal integral operator is calculated with respect to the Levy measure of the jumps. In this paper we will present a variational formulation of the problem suitable for a finite element approach. The numerical results obtained for european options will be compared with those obtained with different methods.; Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures

Exchangeability type properties of asset prices

Molchanov, Ilya; Schmutz, Michael
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
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In this paper we analyse financial implications of exchangeability and similar properties of finite dimensional random vectors. We show how these properties are reflected in prices of some basket options in view of the well-known put-call symmetry property and the duality principle in option pricing. A particular attention is devoted to the case of asset prices driven by Levy processes. Based on this, concrete semi-static hedging techniques for multi-asset barrier options, such as certain weighted barrier spread options, weighted barrier swap options or weighted barrier quanto-swap options are suggested.; Comment: The final version of the paper "Semi-static hedging under exchangeability type conditions". To appear in Advances in Applied Probability

Stability analysis with applications of a two-dimensional dynamical system arising from a stochastic model of an asset market

Belitsky, Vladimir; Pereira, Antonio L.; Prado, Fernando P. de Almeida
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 25/09/2009 Português
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We analyze the stability properties of equilibrium solutions and periodicity of orbits in a two-dimensional dynamical system whose orbits mimic the evolution of the price of an asset and the excess demand for that asset. The construction of the system is grounded upon a heterogeneous interacting agent model for a single risky asset market. An advantage of this construction procedure is that the resulting dynamical system becomes a macroscopic market model which mirrors the market quantities and qualities that would typically be taken into account solely at the microscopic level of modeling. The system's parameters correspond to: (a) the proportion of speculators in a market; (b) the traders' speculative trend; (c) the degree of heterogeneity of idiosyncratic evaluations of the market agents with respect to the asset's fundamental value; and (d) the strength of the feedback of the population excess demand on the asset price update increment. This correspondence allows us to employ our results in order to infer plausible causes for the emergence of price and demand fluctuations in a real asset market. The employment of dynamical systems for studying evolution of stochastic models of socio-economic phenomena is quite usual in the area of heterogeneous interacting agent models. However...

Option Pricing in an Imperfect World

Cassese, Gianluca
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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In a model with no given probability measure, we consider asset pricing in the presence of frictions and other imperfections and characterize the property of coherent pricing, a notion related to (but much weaker than) the no arbitrage property. We show that prices are coherent if and only if the set of pricing measures is non empty, i.e. if pricing by expectation is possible. We then obtain a decomposition of coherent prices highlighting the role of bubbles. eventually we show that under very weak conditions the coherent pricing of options allows for a very clear representation from which it is possible, as in the original work of Breeden and Litzenberger, to extract the implied probability. Eventually we test this conclusion empirically via a new non parametric approach.; Comment: The paper has been withdrawn because in the newer version it was split into two different papers, each of which have been uploaded into Arxiv

Valor justo da Tractebel Energia: uma avaliação a partir dos principais modelos de precificação de ativos DOI:10.5007/2175-8077.2010v12n26p11; Just value of the Tactebel energy: an valuation from the main models of pricing asset

Campos, Renato; UFSC; Vital, Juliana Tatiane; UFSC; Moritz, Gilberto de Oliveira; UFSC; Costa, Alexandre Marino; UFSC
Fonte: Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina Publicador: Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; ; Estudo de caso; Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 01/01/2010 Português
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O presente estudo teve como objetivo definir o atual valor justo da Tractebel Energia, a partir dos principais modelos de precificação de ativos. A empresa objeto foi tomada como base em função de seu crescimento estável e da facilidade de se obter dados, uma vez que é sediada na cidade de Florianópolis. Não obstante, a volatilidade com que suas ações têm sido precificadas despertou interesse. Com isso, este estudo pretendeu fornecer subsídio para a tomada de decisão de investidores, no que diz respeito à compra ou venda das ações da empresa. Para tanto, a fundamentação teórica tratou sobre o conceito de avaliação de ativos e dos principais modelos disponíveis, ressaltando suas aplicações e limitações, os quais são: avaliação contábil, relativa, modelo de dividendo descontado e fluxo de caixa descontado. No que tange ao aspecto metodológico, a pesquisa se enquadra em exploratória, descritiva, eminentemente quantitativa, estudo de campo e de caso. Além disso, fez-se uso de investigação documental, bibliográfica, entrevista e do programa Economática. Com isso, a análise de dados procurou inicialmente levantar as premissas demandadas por cada um dos modelos analisados e aplicá-los. Os resultados obtidos foram então comparados entre si e ajustados...

Asset pricing tests with long run risks in consumption growth

Constantinides, George M.; Ghosh, Anisha
Fonte: Financial Markets Group, London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Financial Markets Group, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 28/02/2008 Português
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The Bansal and Yaron (2004) model of long run risks (LLR) in aggregate consumption and dividend growth and its extension that captures potential co- integration of the consumption and dividend levels, are tested on a cross-section of asset classes and rejected using annual data over the period 1930-2006 and using both annual and quarterly data over the post-war period. The reversal of earlier empirical conclusions is partly due to the increase in the power of the tests resulting from two observations under the null. First, the latent state vari- ables and, therefore, the pricing kernel are known a¢ ne functions of observables such as the interest rate and the market-wide price-dividend ratio. Second, the parameters of the time-series processes of consumption and dividend growth, the LLR variable, and its conditional variance impose constraints on the parameters of the pricing kernel. The value of the persistence parameter of the LRR variable that best …ts the data implies that its half-life is shorter than that of the business cycle.