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Performances of Non-Parametric Statistics in Sensitivity Analysis and Parameter Ranking

SALTELLI Andrea; MARIVOET J.
Fonte: CEC Publicador: CEC
Tipo: EUR - Scientific and Technical Research Reports Formato: Printed
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A NUMBER OF MOSTLY NON-PAREAMETRIC SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES ARE COMPARED IN THE CASE OF NON-LINEAR MODEL RESPONSES. THE TEST MODELS ORIGINATE FROM THE CONTEXT OF THE RISK ANALYSIS FOR THE DISPOSAL OF RADIOACTIVE WASTE WHERE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS PLAYS A CRUCIAL ROLE. ALL TECHNIQUES ARE APPLIED TO THE OUTPUT FROM THE SAME MONTE CARLO SIMUALTIONS WHERE A MODIFIED VERSION OF LATIN HYPERCUBE METHOD IS USED FOR THE SAMPLE SELECTION. HYPOTHESIS IS SYSTEMATICALLY APPLIED TO QUANTIFY THE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THE RESULTS GIVEN BY THE VARIOUS SENSITIVITY ESTIMATORS.; NA-NOT AVAILABLE

Local and Global Uncertainty Analyses of a Methane Flame Model

SALTELLI ANDREA; TARANTOLA STEFANO; RATTO MARCO; ZÁDOR J.; ZSÉLY I.g; TURÁNYI T.
Fonte: AMER CHEMICAL SOC Publicador: AMER CHEMICAL SOC
Tipo: Articles in Journals Formato: Printed
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Local and global uncertainty analyses of a flat, premixed, stationary, laminar methane flame model were carried out using the Leeds methane oxidation mechanism at lean (� ) 0.70), stoichiometric (� ) 1.00), and rich (� ) 1.20) equivalence ratios. Uncertainties of laminar flame velocity, maximal flame temperature, and maximal concentrations of radicals H, O, OH, CH, and CH2 were investigated. Global uncertainty analysis methods included the Morris method, the Monte Carlo analysis with Latin hypercube sampling, and an improved version of the Sobol’ method. Assumed probability density functions (pdf’s) were assigned to the rate coefficients of all the 175 reactions and to the enthalpies of formation of the 37 species. The analyses provided the following answers: approximate pdf’s and standard deviations of the model results, minimum and maximum values of the results at any physically realistic parameter combination, and the contribution of the uncertainty of each parameter to the uncertainty of the model result. The uncertainty of a few rate parameters and a few enthalpies of formation causes most of the uncertainty of the model results. Most uncertainty comes from the inappropriate knowledge of kinetic data...

LUISA (Library User Interface for Sensitivity Analysis): a generic software component for sensitivity analysis of bio-physical models

DONATELLI Marcello; CONFALONIERI Roberto; CERRANI Iacopo; FANCHINI Davide; ACUTIS Marco; TARANTOLA Stefano; BARUTH Bettina
Fonte: Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand and International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation Publicador: Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand and International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation
Tipo: Contributions to Conferences Formato: Online
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Abstract: Sensitivity analysis is crucial to better understand the behavior of models, both for developers and users. Developers can be supported in avoiding overparameterizations and in focusing their attention only in the processes with a significant impact on the output(s) of interest. Model users can benefit of sensitivity analysis by identifying the most relevant parameters in a particular biophysical context and, therefore, in optimizing the available resources for determining their value, through direct measurements or via calibration. When biophysical, deterministic models are run in a stochastic fashion using weather series, and when other inputs of a model vary substantially, the results of sensitivity analysis may differ, suggesting different, site specific strategies, for operational use. The availability of a generic software component able to be integrated in modeling and simulation environments would hence allow the estimate of differences in the behavior of models in different soil-plant-climate-management scenarios. It is possible to classify the methods for sensitivity analysis developed in the last decades in three groups: the one-factor-at-a-time method, the methods based on regression and the variance-based Monte-Carlo methods. The first group is represented by Morris¿ method...

Distributed Sensitivity Analysis of Flood Inundation Model Calibration

HALL Jim; TARANTOLA STEFANO
Fonte: ASCE-AMER SOC CIVIL ENGINEERS Publicador: ASCE-AMER SOC CIVIL ENGINEERS
Tipo: Articles in Journals Formato: Printed
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Uncertainties in hydrodynamic model calibration and boundary conditions can have a significant influence on flood inundation predictions. Uncertainty analysis involves quantification of these uncertainties and their propagation through to inundation predictions. In this paper the inverse problem of sensitivity analysis is tackled, in order to diagnose the influence that model input variables, together and in combination, have on the uncertainty in the inundation model prediction. Variance-based global sensitivity analysis is applied to simulation of a flood on a reach of the River Thames (United Kingdom) for which a synthetic aperture radar image of the extent of flooding was available for model validation. The sensitivity analysis using the method of Sobol’ quantifies the significant influence of variance in the Manning channel roughness coefficient in raster-based flood inundation model predictions of flood outline and flood depth. The spatial influence of the Manning channel roughness coefficient is analyzed by dividing the channel into subreaches and calculating variance-based sensitivity indices for each subreach. Replicated Latin hypercube sampling is used for sensitivity analysis with correlated input variables. The methodology identifies subreaches of channel that have the most influence on variance in the model predictions...

Sampling plans for the estimation of moment-independent importance measures

CASTAINGS William; BORGONOVO Emanuele; TARANTOLA Stefano
Fonte: Elsevier Publicador: Elsevier
Tipo: Contributions to Conferences Formato: Online
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The numerical and computational aspects underlying the approximation of moment independent sensitivity measures are discussed. Sampling plans based on column substitution and column permutations are evaluated and compared for both analytical test cases and a practical application. The influence of the sampling strategy (simple random, latin hypercube or quasi-random sequences) is investigated.; JRC.DG.G.3-Econometrics and applied statistics

Spatial prediction of soil properties at European scale using the LUCAS database as an harmonization layer

BALLABIO CRISTIANO; PANAGOS Panagiotis; MONTANARELLA Luca
Fonte: CRC Press Publicador: CRC Press
Tipo: Articles in books Formato: Printed
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The Land Use and Cover Area frame Statistical survey (LUCAS) is a project, initiated by Eurostat, aimed at the collection of harmonized data about the state of land use/ land cover over the extent of European Union (EU). The survey, initiated in 2006, started with the classification, through photo-interpretation, of 106 georeferenced points placed at the nodes of a 2km grid covering EU. Among these 2105 were selected for validation and a topsoil survey was conducted at about 10% of these sites. Topsoil sampling locations were selected as to be representative of European landscape using a latin hypercube stratified random sampling, taking into account CORINE land cover 2000, the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) DEM and its derived slope, aspect and curvature. In this study we will discuss how the LUCAS database can be used to map soil properties at continental scale over the geographical extent of Europe. Several soil properties (namely: soil texture, pH, carbon and nitrogen content) were predicted using hybrid approaches like regression kriging. Regression models were fitted using, along other variables, remotely sensed data coming from the MODIS sensor. The high temporal resolution of MODIS allowed detecting changes in the vegetative response due to soil properties...

An exploratory analysis of convoy protection using agent-based simulation

Hakola, Matthew B.
Fonte: Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School Publicador: Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
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Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited; Recent insurgent tactics during Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) have demonstrated that coalition logistical convoys are vulnerable targets. This thesis examines the tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs) used in convoy operations in an attempt to identify the critical factors that lead to mission success. A ground convoy operation scenario is created in the agentbased model (ABM) Map Aware Non-uniform Automata (MANA). The scenario models a generic logistical convoy consisting of security vehicles, logistical vehicles, an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and an enemy ambushing force. The convoy travels along a main supply route (MSR) where it is ambushed by a small insurgent force. We use military experience, judgment and exploratory simulation runs to identify 11 critical factors within the created scenario. The data farming process and Latin Hypercube (LHC) experimental design technique are used to thoroughly examine the 11 factors. Using the 11 factors 516 design points are created and data farmed over to produce 25,800 observations. Additive multiple linear regression is used to fit a model to the 25,800 observations. From the created scenario it is concluded that: convoy mission success may be determined by only a few factors; the actions of logistical vehicles are more critical than those of security vehicles; UAVs provide a statistically significant advantage; and ABMs coupled with LHCs and data farming are valuable tools for understanding complex problems.

Extending orthogonal and nearly orthogonal Latin hypercube designs for computer simulation and experiments

Ang, Keng-Ern Joshua.
Fonte: Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School Publicador: Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
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Efficient Designs (SEED) Center website (http://harvest.nps.edu).

Track spacing for an Archimedes spiral search by a maritime patrol aircraft (MPA) in Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) operations

Son, Byungsoo
Fonte: Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School Publicador: Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
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The military threat of hostile submarines is increasing and the need for effective Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) operations is also increasing. In response, the ROK government and military have improved their ASW capabilities. In this thesis, the recommended track spacing for an Archimedes spiral search in a datum search problem was studied. To find a recommended track spacing, three analytical approaches were explored. Each of three analytical approaches has its own strengths and weaknesses. This analysis combined three analytical functions into a single parameterized expression. To find the best-fit parameters maximizing probability of detection, a simulation experiment with a NOLH (Nearly Orthogonal Latin Hypercube) design was used.

An alternative optimization model and robust experimental design for the Assignment Scheduling Capability for the Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (ASC-U) simulation

Oliver, Derek M.
Fonte: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School Publicador: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited; The Modeling, Virtual Environments, and Simulations Institute (MOVES) and the United States Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) Analysis Center (TRAC) at the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, developed the Assignment Scheduling Capability for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (ASC-U) discrete event simulation to aid in the analysis of future U.S. Army Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) requirements. TRAC selected ASC-U to provide insight into the programmatic decisions addressed in the U.S. Army UAV-Mix Analysis that directly affects future development and fielding of UAVs to include the Future Combat System. ASC-U employs a discrete event simulation coupled with the optimization of a linear objective function. At regular intervals, ASC-U obtains an optimal solution to an assignment problem that assigns UAVs to mission requirements that are available or will be available at some time in the future. This thesis presents an alternative optimization model, explores 23 simulation factors, and provides sensitivity analysis for how UAV coverage may degrade in the presence of adverse random events. Integer programming, experimental design, and an innovative Optimized Flexible Latin Hypercube (OFLH) design are used to evaluate a representative sample from an Army 2018 scenario. The conclusions suggest the following: the alternative optimization model developed in this thesis can successfully maximize ASC-U value without the use of a heuristic; smaller optimization intervals do not guarantee higher total value when the heuristics are included; to maximize total value...

Exploring first responder tactics in a terrorist chemical attack

Foo, Kong Pin Gilbert
Fonte: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School Publicador: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
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The use of agent-based simulation (ABS) allows government emergency planners to analyze urban counterterrorist operations and observe environmental behaviors that may not obviously demonstrate themselves in live simulation. This study demonstrates a framework in which future counterterrorism response procedures can be analyzed for training and development. The study analyzes the acute phase of an emergency response to a terrorist bomb and chemical attack in an urban commercial setting. Using the ABS platform Pythagoras, explosive and chemical agent effects, civilian behavior, and responder tactics were represented in the simulation. Using a Nearly Orthogonal Latin Hypercube (NOLH) design to analyze four attack scenarios rendered in simulation, data farming techniques identified the most significant controllable and uncontrollable factors related to estimating percentage injury and death. Statistical comparisons indicate that a marginal increase in the percentage of injured civilians is associated with an emergency response. Specific emergency response elements may have a direct or inverse relationship to civilian survivorship. Given the independent, emergent behavior of the civilian population, functions supporting containment and evacuation may conflict with each other. This suggests the need to improve crowd management at the perimeter of the security cordon; particularly...

Exploration of the use of unmanned aerial vehicles along with other assets to enhance border protection

Yildiz, Bahri
Fonte: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School Publicador: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
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Approved for public release, distribution unlimited; Border protection is a vital national security issue for most countries. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is responsible for protecting the borders of the U.S. from terrorism, human and drug smuggling and illegal migration. The U.S. CBP improves manpower, technology and infrastructure along the border through various projects. In this study, part of the Tucson sector in Arizona is modeled in an agent-based model (MANA) to explore the effects of using a hand-launched, mini Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (miniUAV) along with other assets, such as Border Patrol (BP) agents, surveillance towers, the Predator B, seismic sensors and communication centers. The results from the runs of different scenarios, created by a Nearly-Orthogonal Latin Hypercube (NOLH) design, are analyzed using comparison tests, linear regression, and regression trees. As a result, the use of miniUAVs is found to be beneficial in capturing the illegal entrants in this analysis and thus could potentially provide more secure borders. Adequate manpower, in this case BP agents, and a reliable communication web to compose a Common Operational Picture (COP) emerge as the most important factors regarding border protection in this analysis.

On stochastic stability of regional ocean models to finite-amplitude perturbations of initial conditions

Ivanov, Leonid M.; Chu, Peter C.
Fonte: Escola de Pós-Graduação Naval Publicador: Escola de Pós-Graduação Naval
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
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Dynamics of Atmosphere and Oceans, 43, (3-4), 199-225.; The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2007.03.001; We consider error propagation near an unstable equilibrium state (classified as an unstable focus) for spatially uncorrelated and correlated finite-amplitude initial perturbations using short- (up to several weeks) and intermediate (up to 2 months) range forecast ensembles produced by a barotropic regional ocean model. An ensemble of initial perturbations is generated by the Latin Hypercube design strategy, and its optimal size is estimated through the Kullback–Liebler distance (the relative entropy). Although the ocean model is simple, the prediction error (PE) demonstrates non-trivial behavior similar to that existing in 3D ocean circulation models. In particular, in the limit of zero horizontal viscosity, the PE at first decays with time for all scales due to dissipation caused by non-linear bottom friction, and then grows faster than (quasi)- exponentially. Statistics of a prediction time scale (the irreversible predictability time (IPT)) quickly depart from Gaussian (the linear predictability regime) and becomes Weibullian (the non-linear predictability regime) as amplitude of initial perturbations grows. A transition from linear to non-linear predictability is clearly detected by the specific behavior of IPT variance. A new analytical formula for the model predictability horizon is introduced and applied to estimate the limit of predictability for the ocean model.

Determining Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) system effectiveness, and integration as part of force protection and system survivability

Soh, Sze Shiang
Fonte: Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School Publicador: Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited; Situation awareness plays a critical role in all battlefields. It monitors activities, and provides essential information about the battle. It is an operational requirement, high in demand, for the forces to fight the battle smartly and accomplishing the objectives set with minimal casualties. Situation awareness enhances survivability of the fighting forces by avoiding adversary detection and acquisition, achieved via the deployment of a variety of sensors that are part of an effective and integrated ISR system network. This thesis analyzes the impact of ISR system effectiveness and integration on unit survivability, in the context of a combined arms unit. The study was approached using the Nearly Orthogonal Latin Hypercube to generate design points for simulation study. Map Aware Non-uniform Automata (MANA) was used to simulate the behavior of the units in the combined arms unit. During simulation, the parameters are varied to create a changing situation picture, as perceived by the troops. This determines the impact on survivability, by measuring the force exchange ratio between the RED and BLUE force, once the simulation is completed. The sensor capabilities and level of integration between the ISR sensors in the combined arms unit are analyzed based on the simulation results.

A Hilbert Space Approach to Variance Reduction

Szechtman, Roberto
Fonte: Escola de Pós-Graduação Naval Publicador: Escola de Pós-Graduação Naval
Tipo: Parte de Livro
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Elsevier Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science: Simulation, pp 259-289.; In this chapter we explain variance reduction techniques from the Hilbert space standpoint, in the terminating simulation context. We use projection ideas to explain how variance is reduced, and to link different variance reduction techniques. Our focus is on the methods of control variates, conditional Monte Carlo, weighted Monte Carlo, stratification, and Latin hypercube sampling.

Effects of sensing capability on ground platform survivability during ground forces maneuver operations

Tng, Chung Siong
Fonte: Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School Publicador: Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited; : The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the effects of sensing capability on ground platform survivability during ground force maneuver operations. Sensor classification probability of ground platforms and speed of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) are the factors being studied, and the Map Aware Non-Uniform Automata (MANA) agent-based simulation software was used to create a hypothetical Ground Force Maneuver Operation Scenario for this exploration. A tailored Waterfall systems engineering process model guided the study in identifying alternatives which, other than increasing armor thickness, can improve platform survivability during ground force maneuver operations. The Nearly Orthogonal Latin Hypercube was the Design of Experiment methodology used to determine the number of design points to be simulated, and the results generated from the multiple simulation runs were analyzed using regression analysis and partition tree analysis. The sensor classification probability of the Bradley M6 Linebacker and M1A2 Abrams Main Battle Tank, and the speed of UAV, were identified to be the three most significant factors affecting platform survivability. More importantly, the study provides decision makers with quantitative data...

Ant colony optimization and parameter selection for evacuating the mobility-challenged in a short-notice disaster

Heath, Susan K.; Apte, Aruna; Pico, Andres; Tan, Yong Huy Ronny
Fonte: Escola de Pós-Graduação Naval Publicador: Escola de Pós-Graduação Naval
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
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We address an Over-burdened Vehicle Routing Problem (OBVRP) model developed for evacuating mobility-challenged people who cannot self-evacuate before a short-notice disaster. Hurricane Katrina made it very clear that such evacuation assistance is needed. This OBVRP generates routes for multiple heterogeneous vehicles to evacuate people with differing transportation needs to minimize the number of people that cannot be evacuated due to limited time and vehicles. We improve upon a previously developed Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm through formal experimentation of the parameter settings using a Nearly-Orthogonal Latin Hypercube experimental design, and then constructing regression models using the results to determine the best parameter combinations. Our results show that the parameter settings can significantly affect the performance of the ACO algorithm and also show extensive interactions between the parameters. We compare our results to existing literature on ACO parameter selection and interactions, providing a great deal of insight not seen in prior literature.

Exploração de espaços de parâmetros de modelos biológicos sob diferentes paradigmas estatísticos; Parameter space exploration of biological models under different statistical paradigms

Oliveira, Andre Chalom Machado de
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 02/09/2015 Português
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A formulação e o uso de modelos matemáticos complexos têm recebido grande atenção no estudo da ecologia nos últimos anos. Questões relacionadas à exploração de espaços de parâmetros destes modelos - executada de forma eficiente, sistemática e à prova de erros - são de grande importância para melhor compreender, avaliar a confiabilidade e interpretar o resultado destes modelos. Neste trabalho, apresentamos uma investigação de métodos existentes para responder as questões relevantes da área, com ênfase na técnica conhecida como Hipercubo Latino e com foco na análise quantitativa dos resultados, e realizamos a comparação entre resultados analíticos de incerteza e sensibilidade e resultados obtidos do Hipercubo. Ainda, examinamos a proposta de uma metodologia paralela baseada no paradigma estatístico da verossimilhança. O capítulo 1 introduz uma investigação a respeito dos conceitos históricos sobre a natureza da probabilidade, situando o conceito da verossimilhança como componente central da inferência estatística. O capítulo 2 (em inglês) traz uma revisão bibliográfica sobre o estado da arte em análises de incerteza e sensibilidade, apresentando dois exemplos de aplicação das técnicas descritas a problemas de crescimento populacional estruturado. O capítulo 3 examina a proposta de uma metodologia baseada na verossimilhança dos dados como uma abordagem integrativa entre a estimação de parâmetros e a análise de incerteza...

Mapping topsoil physical properties at European scale using the LUCAS database

BALLABIO CRISTIANO; PANAGOS Panagiotis; MONTANARELLA Luca
Fonte: ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV Publicador: ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Tipo: Articles in periodicals and books Formato: Online
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The Land Use and Cover Area frame Statistical survey (LUCAS) aimed at the collecting harmonized data about the state of land use/cover over the extent of European Union (EU). Among these 2•105 land use/cover observations selected for validation, a topsoil survey was conducted at about 10% of these sites. Topsoil sampling locations were selected as to be representative of European landscape using a latin hypercube stratified random sampling, taking into account CORINE land cover 2000, the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) DEM and its derived slope, aspect and curvature. In this study we will discuss how the LUCAS topsoil database can be used to map soil properties at continental scale over the geographical extent of Europe. Several soil properties were predicted using hybrid approaches like regression kriging. In this paper we describe the prediction of topsoil texture and related derived physical properties. Regression models were fitted using, along other variables, remotely sensed data coming from the MODIS sensor. The high temporal resolution of MODIS allowed detecting changes in the vegetative response due to soil properties, which can then be used to map soil features distribution. We will also discuss the prediction of intrinsically collinear variables like soil texture which required the use of models capable of dealing with multivariate constrained dependent variables like Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS). Cross validation of the fitted models proved that the LUCAS dataset constitutes a good sample for mapping puropses leading to cross-validation R2 between 0.47 and 0.50 for soil texture and normalised errors between 4 and 10%.; JRC.H.5-Land Resources Management

Supporting Marine Corps Enhanced Company Operations : a quantitative analysis

Hinkson, Daniel S.
Fonte: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School Publicador: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: xxiv, 87 p. : col. ill., col. maps ;
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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited; This research explores the capability requirements for the employment of a Marine Rifle Company organized to conduct Enhanced Company Operations (ECO). It uses a simulation model, built in an agent-based simulation tool called MANA, to evaluate the logistical impact of ECO on a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU). ECO involves reorganizing and augmenting the traditional rifle company in a manner that contributes to "enhanced" command and control, intelligence, logistics, and fires capabilities. The end state is to develop the company's ability to become the base maneuver element of the Marine Air Ground Task Force, a role traditionally held by the infantry battalion. This research used a robust design of experiments method called the Nearly Orthogonal Latin Hypercube to vary a set of design factors in an efficient manner, culminating in over 5,460 simulated missions. Statistical results indicate that it is possible to support an enhanced company with current MEU assets, and that resupply responsiveness is more important than the unit's distance to the seabase. This research also confirms the validity of investing in the MV-22, due to the increased capabilities it brings to the MEU commander.; US Marine Corps (USMC) author