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A framework to generate synthetic multi-label datasets

Tomas, Jimena Torres; Spolaôr, Newton; Cherman, Everton Alvares; Monard, Maria Carolina
Fonte: Elsevier; Amsterdam Publicador: Elsevier; Amsterdam
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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A controlled environment based on known properties of the dataset used by a learning algorithm is useful to empirically evaluate machine learning algorithms. Synthetic (artificial) datasets are used for this purpose. Although there are publicly available frameworks to generate synthetic single-label datasets, this is not the case for multi-label datasets, in which each instance is associated with a set of labels usually correlated. This work presents Mldatagen, a multi-label dataset generator framework we have implemented, which is publicly available to the community. Currently, two strategies have been implemented in Mldatagen: hypersphere and hypercube. For each label in the multi-label dataset, these strategies randomly generate a geometric shape (hypersphere or hypercube), which is populated with points (instances) randomly generated. Afterwards, each instance is labeled according to the shapes it belongs to, which defines its multi-label. Experiments with a multi-label classification algorithm in six synthetic datasets illustrate the use of Mldatagen.; São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) (grants 2011/02393-4, 2010/15992-0 and 2011/12597-6); Proceedings of the XXXIX Latin American Computing Conference (CLEI 2013). Naiguatá...

Desenvolvimento de um método para estimar o consumo de energia de edificações comerciais através da aplicação de redes neurais

Melo, Ana Paula
Fonte: Florianópolis Publicador: Florianópolis
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: 189 p.| il., grafs., tabs.
Português
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Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Centro Tecnológico. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Civil; Em Fevereiro de 2009 foi aprovado sob a portaria de No 53 o Regulamento Técnico da Qualidade do Nível de Eficiência Energética de Edifícios Comerciais, de Serviços e Públicos (RTQ-C). Este regulamento visa a etiquetagem de edificações comerciais no Brasil, classificando pelo nível de eficiência energética e baseando-se em três requisitos principais: Eficiência e potência instalada do sistema de iluminação; Eficiência do sistema de condicionamento de ar e Desempenho térmico da envoltória da edificação, quando a mesma for condicionada. O RTQ-C apresenta dois métodos para a avaliação do nível final de eficiência da edificação: Método Prescritivo, através da utilização de um modelo simplificado; ou através do Método de Simulação. Durante o desenvolvimento do modelo simplificado para a avaliação da envoltória presente no RTQ-C, foram encontradas algumas limitações com relação à volumetria do edifício e do parâmetro transmitância térmicas das paredes. Após o desenvolvimento do modelo, foram também observadas diferenças entre os níveis de eficiência de edificações com grande volumetria quando avaliadas através do Método Prescritivo e Método de Simulação. Outra observação foi com relação aos resultados fornecido pelo modelo simplificado. Os resultados são representados por um Indicador de Consumo...

A generalized entropy characterization of N -dimensional fractal control systems

Gaudiano, Marcos E.
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 21/04/2014 Português
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It is presented the general properties of N-dimensional multi-component or many-particle systems exhibiting self-similar hierarchical structure. Assuming there exists an optimal coarse-graining scale at which the quality and diversity of the (box-counting) fractal dimensions exhibited by a given system are optimized, it is computed the generalized entropy of each hypercube of the partitioned system and shown that its shape is universal, as it also exhibits self-similarity and hence does not depend on the dimensionality N . For certain systems this shape may also be associated with the large time stationary profile of the fractal density distribution in the absence of external fields (or control).; Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures This work has been submitted for publication to the proceedings of The Latin American Congress on Computational Intelligence (http://la-cci.org/)

Parameter space exploration of ecological models

Chalom, André; de Prado, Paulo Inácio de Knegt López
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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In recent years, we are seeing the formulation and use of elaborate and complex models in ecological studies. The questions related to the efficient, systematic and error-proof exploration of parameter spaces are of great importance to better understand, estimate confidences and make use of the output from these models. In this work, we investigate some of the relevant questions related to parameter space exploration, in particular using the technique known as Latin Hypercube Sampling and focusing in quantitative output analysis. We present the analysis of a structured population growth model and contrast our findings with results from previously used techniques, known as sensitivity and elasticity analyses. We also assess how are the questions related to parameter space analysis being currently addressed in the ecological literature.

Physical Layer Network Coding for the K-user Multiple Access Relay Channel

Muralidharan, Vijayvaradharaj T.; Rajan, B. Sundar
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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A Physical layer Network Coding (PNC) scheme is proposed for the $K$-user wireless Multiple Access Relay Channel (MARC), in which $K$ source nodes transmit their messages to the destination node $D$ with the help of a relay node $R.$ The proposed PNC scheme involves two transmission phases: (i) Phase 1 during which the source nodes transmit, the relay node and the destination node receive and (ii) Phase 2 during which the source nodes and the relay node transmit, and the destination node receives. At the end of Phase 1, the relay node decodes the messages of the source nodes and during Phase 2 transmits a many-to-one function of the decoded messages. Wireless networks in which the relay node decodes, suffer from loss of diversity order if the decoder at the destination is not chosen properly. A novel decoder is proposed for the PNC scheme, which offers the maximum possible diversity order of $2,$ for a proper choice of certain parameters and the network coding map. Specifically, the network coding map used at the relay is chosen to be a $K$-dimensional Latin Hypercube, in order to ensure the maximum diversity order of $2.$ Also, it is shown that the proposed decoder can be implemented by a fast decoding algorithm. Simulation results presented for the 3-user MARC show that the proposed scheme offers a large gain over the existing scheme for the $K$-user MARC.; Comment: More Simulation results added...

Monte Carlo Methods and Path-Generation techniques for Pricing Multi-asset Path-dependent Options

Sabino, Piergiacomo
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 03/10/2007 Português
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We consider the problem of pricing path-dependent options on a basket of underlying assets using simulations. As an example we develop our studies using Asian options. Asian options are derivative contracts in which the underlying variable is the average price of given assets sampled over a period of time. Due to this structure, Asian options display a lower volatility and are therefore cheaper than their standard European counterparts. This paper is a survey of some recent enhancements to improve efficiency when pricing Asian options by Monte Carlo simulation in the Black-Scholes model. We analyze the dynamics with constant and time-dependent volatilities of the underlying asset returns. We present a comparison between the precision of the standard Monte Carlo method (MC) and the stratified Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). In particular, we discuss the use of low-discrepancy sequences, also known as Quasi-Monte Carlo method (QMC), and a randomized version of these sequences, known as Randomized Quasi Monte Carlo (RQMC). The latter has proven to be a useful variance reduction technique for both problems of up to 20 dimensions and for very high dimensions. Moreover, we present and test a new path generation approach based on a Kronecker product approximation (KPA) in the case of time-dependent volatilities. KPA proves to be a fast generation technique and reduces the computational cost of the simulation procedure.; Comment: 34 pages...

Cumulative physical uncertainty in modern stellar models. II. The dependence on the chemical composition

Valle, G.; Dell'Omodarme, M.; Moroni, P. G. Prada; Degl'Innocenti, S.
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 29/04/2013 Português
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We extend our work on the effects of the uncertainties on the main input physics for the evolution of low-mass stars. We analyse the dependence of the cumulative physical uncertainty affecting stellar tracks on the chemical composition. We calculated more than 6000 stellar tracks and isochrones, with metallicity ranging from Z = 0.0001 to 0.02, by changing the following physical inputs within their current range of uncertainty: 1H(p,nu e+)2H, 14N(p,gamma)15O and triple-alpha reaction rates, radiative and conductive opacities, neutrino energy losses, and microscopic diffusion velocities. The analysis was performed using a latin hypercube sampling design. We examine in a statistical way the dependence on the variation of the physical inputs of the turn-off (TO) luminosity, the central hydrogen exhaustion time (t_H), the luminosity and the helium core mass at the red-giant branch (RGB) tip, and the zero age horizontal branch (ZAHB) luminosity in the RR Lyrae region. For the stellar tracks, an increase from Z = 0.0001 to Z = 0.02 produces a cumulative physical uncertainty in TO luminosity from 0.028 dex to 0.017 dex, while the global uncertainty on t_H increases from 0.42 Gyr to 1.08 Gyr. For the RGB tip, the cumulative uncertainty on the luminosity is almost constant at 0.03 dex...

Sensitivity Analysis for Computationally Expensive Models using Optimization and Objective-oriented Surrogate Approximations

Wang, Yilun; Shoemaker, Christine A.
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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In this paper, we focus on developing efficient sensitivity analysis methods for a computationally expensive objective function $f(x)$ in the case that the minimization of it has just been performed. Here "computationally expensive" means that each of its evaluation takes significant amount of time, and therefore our main goal to use a small number of function evaluations of $f(x)$ to further infer the sensitivity information of these different parameters. Correspondingly, we consider the optimization procedure as an adaptive experimental design and re-use its available function evaluations as the initial design points to establish a surrogate model $s(x)$ (or called response surface). The sensitivity analysis is performed on $s(x)$, which is an lieu of $f(x)$. Furthermore, we propose a new local multivariate sensitivity measure, for example, around the optimal solution, for high dimensional problems. Then a corresponding "objective-oriented experimental design" is proposed in order to make the generated surrogate $s(x)$ better suitable for the accurate calculation of the proposed specific local sensitivity quantities. In addition, we demonstrate the better performance of the Gaussian radial basis function interpolator over Kriging in our cases...

Refined Stratified Sampling for efficient Monte Carlo based uncertainty quantification

Shields, Michael D.; Teferra, Kirubel; Hapij, Adam; Daddazio, Raymond P.
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 11/05/2015 Português
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A general adaptive approach rooted in stratified sampling (SS) is proposed for sample-based uncertainty quantification (UQ). To motivate its use in this context the space-filling, orthogonality, and projective properties of SS are compared with simple random sampling and Latin hypercube sampling (LHS). SS is demonstrated to provide attractive properties for certain classes of problems. The proposed approach, Refined Stratified Sampling (RSS), capitalizes on these properties through an adaptive process that adds samples sequentially by dividing the existing subspaces of a stratified design. RSS is proven to reduce variance compared to traditional stratified sample extension methods while providing comparable or enhanced variance reduction when compared to sample size extension methods for LHS - which do not afford the same degree of flexibility to facilitate a truly adaptive UQ process. An initial investigation of optimal stratification is presented and motivates the potential for major advances in variance reduction through optimally designed RSS. Potential paths for extension of the method to high dimension are discussed. Two examples are provided. The first involves UQ for a low dimensional function where convergence is evaluated analytically. The second presents a study to asses the response variability of a floating structure to an underwater shock.

Validating Sample Average Approximation Solutions with Negatively Dependent Batches

Chen, Jiajie; Lim, Cong Han; Qian, Peter Z. G.; Linderoth, Jeff; Wright, Stephen J.
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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Sample-average approximations (SAA) are a practical means of finding approximate solutions of stochastic programming problems involving an extremely large (or infinite) number of scenarios. SAA can also be used to find estimates of a lower bound on the optimal objective value of the true problem which, when coupled with an upper bound, provides confidence intervals for the true optimal objective value and valuable information about the quality of the approximate solutions. Specifically, the lower bound can be estimated by solving multiple SAA problems (each obtained using a particular sampling method) and averaging the obtained objective values. State-of-the-art methods for lower-bound estimation generate batches of scenarios for the SAA problems independently. In this paper, we describe sampling methods that produce negatively dependent batches, thus reducing the variance of the sample-averaged lower bound estimator and increasing its usefulness in defining a confidence interval for the optimal objective value. We provide conditions under which the new sampling methods can reduce the variance of the lower bound estimator, and present computational results to verify that our scheme can reduce the variance significantly, by comparison with the traditional Latin hypercube approach.

A central limit theorem for general orthogonal array based space-filling designs

He, Xu; Qian, Peter Z. G.
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 23/09/2014 Português
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Orthogonal array based space-filling designs (Owen [Statist. Sinica 2 (1992a) 439-452]; Tang [J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 88 (1993) 1392-1397]) have become popular in computer experiments, numerical integration, stochastic optimization and uncertainty quantification. As improvements of ordinary Latin hypercube designs, these designs achieve stratification in multi-dimensions. If the underlying orthogonal array has strength $t$, such designs achieve uniformity up to $t$ dimensions. Existing central limit theorems are limited to these designs with only two-dimensional stratification based on strength two orthogonal arrays. We develop a new central limit theorem for these designs that possess stratification in arbitrary multi-dimensions associated with orthogonal arrays of general strength. This result is useful for building confidence statements for such designs in various statistical applications.; Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOS1231 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)

n-Ary quasigroups of order 4

Krotov, Denis; Potapov, Vladimir
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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We characterize the set of all N-ary quasigroups of order 4: every N-ary quasigroup of order 4 is permutably reducible or semilinear. Permutable reducibility means that an N-ary quasigroup can be represented as a composition of K-ary and (N-K+1)-ary quasigroups for some K from 2 to N-1, where the order of arguments in the representation can differ from the original order. The set of semilinear N-ary quasigroups has a characterization in terms of Boolean functions. Keywords: Latin hypercube, n-ary quasigroup, reducibility; Comment: 10pp. V2: revised

Multiprocess parallel antithetic coupling for backward and forward Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Craiu, Radu V.; Meng, Xiao-Li
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 30/05/2005 Português
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Antithetic coupling is a general stratification strategy for reducing Monte Carlo variance without increasing the simulation size. The use of the antithetic principle in the Monte Carlo literature typically employs two strata via antithetic quantile coupling. We demonstrate here that further stratification, obtained by using k>2 (e.g., k=3-10) antithetically coupled variates, can offer substantial additional gain in Monte Carlo efficiency, in terms of both variance and bias. The reason for reduced bias is that antithetically coupled chains can provide a more dispersed search of the state space than multiple independent chains. The emerging area of perfect simulation provides a perfect setting for implementing the k-process parallel antithetic coupling for MCMC because, without antithetic coupling, this class of methods delivers genuine independent draws. Furthermore, antithetic backward coupling provides a very convenient theoretical tool for investigating antithetic forward coupling. However, the generation of k>2 antithetic variates that are negatively associated, that is, they preserve negative correlation under monotone transformations, and extremely antithetic, that is, they are as negatively correlated as possible, is more complicated compared to the case with k=2. In this paper...

Improvement of random LHD for high dimensions

Pepelyshev, Andrey
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 10/07/2009 Português
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Designs of experiments for multivariate case are reviewed. Fast algorithm of construction of good Latin hypercube designs is developed.; Comment: 6 pages, Proceedings of the 6th St. Petersburg Workshop on Simulation, 1091-1096

Determining Key Model Parameters of Rapidly Intensifying Hurricane Guillermo(1997) using the Ensemble Kalman Filter

Godinez, Humberto C.; Reisner, Jon M.; Fierro, Alexandre O.; Guimond, Stephen R.; Kao, Jim
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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In this work we determine key model parameters for rapidly intensifying Hurricane Guillermo (1997) using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). The approach is to utilize the EnKF as a tool to only estimate the parameter values of the model for a particular data set. The assimilation is performed using dual-Doppler radar observations obtained during the period of rapid intensification of Hurricane Guillermo. A unique aspect of Guillermo was that during the period of radar observations strong convective bursts, attributable to wind shear, formed primarily within the eastern semicircle of the eyewall. To reproduce this observed structure within a hurricane model, background wind shear of some magnitude must be specified; as well as turbulence and surface parameters appropriately specified so that the impact of the shear on the simulated hurricane vortex can be realized. To identify the complex nonlinear interactions induced by changes in these parameters, an ensemble of model simulations have been conducted in which individual members were formulated by sampling the parameters within a certain range via a Latin hypercube approach. The ensemble and the data, derived latent heat and horizontal winds from the dual-Doppler radar observations...

The network-level reproduction number and extinction threshold for vector-borne diseases

Xue, Ling; Scoglio, Caterina
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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The reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or die out. Thresholds for disease extinction contribute crucial knowledge on disease control, elimination, and mitigation of infectious diseases. Relationships between the basic reproduction numbers of two network-based ordinary differential equation vector-host models, and extinction thresholds of corresponding continuous-time Markov chain models are derived under some assumptions. Numerical simulation results for malaria and Rift Valley fever transmission on heterogeneous networks are in agreement with analytical results without any assumptions, reinforcing the relationships may always exist and proposing a mathematical problem of proving their existences in general. Moreover, numerical simulations show that the reproduction number is not monotonically increasing or decreasing with the extinction threshold. Key parameters in predicting uncertainty of extinction thresholds are identified using Latin Hypercube Sampling/Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient. Consistent trends of extinction probability observed through numerical simulations provide novel insights into mitigation strategies to increase the disease extinction probability. Research findings may improve understandings of thresholds for disease persistence in order to control vector-borne diseases.

Coupling models of cattle and farms with models of badgers for predicting the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis (TB)

Moustakas, Aristides; Evans, Matthew R.
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 06/03/2015 Português
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Bovine TB is a major problem for the agricultural industry in several countries. TB can be contracted and spread by species other than cattle and this can cause a problem for disease control. In the UK and Ireland, badgers are a recognised reservoir of infection and there has been substantial discussion about potential control strategies. We present a coupling of individual based models of bovine TB in badgers and cattle, which aims to capture the key details of the natural history of the disease and of both species at approximately county scale. The model is spatially explicit it follows a very large number of cattle and badgers on a different grid size for each species and includes also winter housing. We show that the model can replicate the reported dynamics of both cattle and badger populations as well as the increasing prevalence of the disease in cattle. Parameter space used as input in simulations was swept out using Latin hypercube sampling and sensitivity analysis to model outputs was conducted using mixed effect models. By exploring a large and computationally intensive parameter space we show that of the available control strategies it is the frequency of TB testing and whether or not winter housing is practised that have the most significant effects on the number of infected cattle...

Creating a conceptual hydrological soil response map for the Stevenson Hamilton Research Supersite, Kruger National Park, South Africa

van Zijl,George; Le Roux,Pieter
Fonte: Water SA Publicador: Water SA
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/04/2014 Português
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The soil water regime is a defining ecosystem service, directly influencing vegetation and animal distribution. Therefore the understanding of hydrological processes is a vital building block in managing natural ecosystems. Soils contain morphological indicators of the water flow paths and rates in the soil profile, which are expressed as 'conceptual hydrological soil responses' (CHSR's). CHSR's can greatly aid in the understanding of hydrology within a landscape and catchment. Therefore a soil map could improve hydrological assessments by providing both the position and area of CHSR's. Conventional soil mapping is a tedious process, which limits the application of soil maps in hydrological studies. The use of a digital soil mapping (DSM) approach to soil mapping can speed up the mapping process and thereby extend soil map use in the field of hydrology. This research uses an expert-knowledge DSM approach to create a soil map for Stevenson Hamilton Research Supersite within the Kruger National Park, South Africa. One hundred and thirteen soil observations were made in the 4 001 ha area. Fifty-four of these observations were pre-determined by smart sampling and conditioned Latin hypercube sampling. These observations were used to determine soil distribution rules...

Analysis of the economic impact of cystic echinococcosis in Spain

Benner,Christine; Carabin,Hélène; Sánchez-Serrano,Luisa P; Budke,Christine M; Carmena,David
Fonte: World Health Organization Publicador: World Health Organization
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/01/2010 Português
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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the overall economic losses due to human and animal cystic echinococcosis (CE) in Spain in 2005. METHODS: We obtained data on annual CE incidence from surveillance and abattoir records, and on CE-related treatment and productivity losses (human and animal) from the scientific literature. Direct costs were those associated with diagnosis, surgical or chemotherapeutic treatment, medical care and hospitalization in humans, and condemnation of offal in livestock (sheep, goats, cattle and pigs). Indirect costs comprised human productivity losses and the reduction in growth, fecundity and milk production in livestock. The Latin hypercube method was used to represent the uncertainty surrounding the input parameters. FINDINGS: The overall economic loss attributable to CE in humans and animals in 2005 was estimated at 148 964 534 euros (€) (95% credible interval, CI: 21 980 446-394 012 706). Human-associated losses were estimated at €133 416 601 (95% CI: 6 658 738-379 273 434) and animal-associated losses at €15 532 242 (95% CI: 13 447 378-17 789 491). CONCLUSION: CE is a neglected zoonosis that remains a human and animal health concern for Spain. More accurate data on CE prevalence in humans (particularly undiagnosed or asymptomatic cases) and better methods to estimate productivity losses in animals are needed. CE continues to affect certain areas of Spain...

Likely effectiveness of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating influenza virus transmission in Mongolia

Bolton,KJ; McCaw,JM; Moss,R; Morris,RS; Wang,S; Burma,A; Darma,B; Narangerel,D; Nymadawa,P; McVernon,J
Fonte: World Health Organization Publicador: World Health Organization
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/04/2012 Português
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OBJECTIVE: To assess the likely benefit of the interventions under consideration for use in Mongolia during future influenza pandemics. METHODS: A stochastic, compartmental patch model of susceptibility, exposure, infection and recovery was constructed to capture the key effects of several interventions - travel restrictions, school closure, generalized social distancing, quarantining of close contacts, treatment of cases with antivirals and prophylaxis of contacts - on the dynamics of influenza epidemics. The likely benefit and optimal timing and duration of each of these interventions were assessed using Latin-hypercube sampling techniques, averaging across many possible transmission and social mixing parameters. FINDINGS: Timely interventions could substantially alter the time-course and reduce the severity of pandemic influenza in Mongolia. In a moderate pandemic scenario, early social distancing measures decreased the mean attack rate from around 10% to 7-8%. Similarly, in a severe pandemic scenario such measures cut the mean attack rate from approximately 23% to 21%. In both moderate and severe pandemic scenarios, a suite of non-pharmaceutical interventions proved as effective as the targeted use of antivirals. Targeted antiviral campaigns generally appeared more effective in severe pandemic scenarios than in moderate pandemic scenarios. CONCLUSION: A mathematical model of pandemic influenza transmission in Mongolia indicated that...