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Global Development Finance 2012 : External Debt of Developing Countries

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
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The data and analysis presented in this edition of global development finance are based on actual flows and debt related transactions for 2010 reported to the World Bank Debtor Reporting System (DRS) by 129 developing countries. The reports confirm that in 2010 international capital flows to developing countries surpassed preliminary estimates and returned to their pre-crisis level of $1.1 trillion, an increase of 68 percent over the comparable figure for 2009. Private capital flows surged in 2010 driven by a massive jump in short-term debt, a strong rebound in bonds and more moderate rise in equity flows. Debt related inflows jumped almost 200 percent compared to a 25 percent increase in net equity flows. The rebound in capital flows was concentrated in a small group of 10 middle income countries where net capital inflows rose by an average of nearly 80 percent in 2010, almost double the rate of increase (44 percent) recorded by other developing countries. These 10 countries accounted for 73 percent of developing countries gross national income (GNI)...

Choosing the Currency Structure for Sovereign Debt : A Review of Current Approaches

Melecky, Martin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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This paper acknowledges the fact that some countries have to borrow in foreign currencies due to the various constraints they face. Starting from this point, the author reviews approaches for trying to determine the currency structure for sovereign debt, and discusses some issues inherent in these approaches. The analysis mainly focuses on the correlations of domestic fundamentals with the actual versus equilibrium exchange rate in light of the long-term perspective of a debt manager and changing exchange rate regimes. In addition, the author makes some observations on the characterization of exchange rate volatilities in the existing approaches.

Sovereign Ratings in the Post-Crisis World : An Analysis of Actual, Shadow and Relative Risk Ratings

Basu, Kaushik; De, Supriyo; Ratha, Dilip; Timmer, Hans
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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This paper analyzes the evolution of sovereign credit ratings in the wake of the global financial crisis by studying changes in actual, shadow, and relative ratings between 2008 and 2012. For countries that do not have a rating from the major rating agencies, shadow ratings are estimated as a function of macroeconomic, structural, and governance variables. The shadow rating exercise confirms earlier findings in the literature that even after the financial crisis, many unrated countries appear to be more creditworthy than previously believed and can access international capital markets. The paper also develops a new rating scale called the "relative risk rating," which ranks countries according to their actual or shadow ratings after controlling for changes in the world weighted average rating. When relative ratings in 2012 are compared with the first half of 2008, the world average rating is found to be weaker because of the financial crisis. The relative rating improved in developing economies such as Azerbaijan...

Housing Finance Across Countries : New Data and Analysis

Badev, Anton; Beck, Thorsten; Vado, Ligia; Walley, Simon
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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This paper presents new data on the depth and penetration of mortgage markets across countries. There is a large variation across both dimensions of mortgage market development, across countries, but also -- in terms of depth -- within countries. Mortgage markets seem to develop only at relatively high levels of gross domestic product per capita. Policies associated with financial system development are also associated with mortgage market development, including price stability and the efficiency of contractual and information frameworks. The development of the insurance sector and the stock market, sources of long-term funding, is strongly associated with mortgage market development, while government subsidies and support are not. A benchmarking exercise compares the actual values of mortgage market development to values predicted by structural country factors and shows a large variation across countries and over time in the gap between predicted and actual values, related to specific policies but also mortgage boom and bust cycles.

Debt Management Performance Assessment : Ethiopia

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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The DeMPA is a methodology for assessing public debt management performance through a comprehensive set of indicators spanning the full range of government debt management functions. The DeMPA tool presents debt performance indicators along with a scoring methodology. This report pertains to a debt management performance assessment of Ethiopia in 2013, and provides an overview of strengths and weaknesses in government debt management. The following are the significant findings of this assessment: 1) no formal debt management strategy in place, although significant progress has been made over time; 2) there is good coordination and information sharing between the fiscal and monetary authorities and the debt managers; 3) There are documented procedures for external and domestic borrowings as well as for on-lending and loan guarantees; 4) an efficient single treasury account is not yet in place, and surplus cash is invested at low rates; 5) there is an understanding of operational risk but not yet a formal framework for operational risk management; and 6) there are complete and timely debt records for all central government debt and guarantees...

Debt Management Performance Assessment : Nigeria

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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46.41%
The DeMPA is a methodology for assessing public debt management performance through a comprehensive set of indicators spanning the full range of government debt management functions. The DeMPA tool presents debt performance indicators along with a scoring methodology. This report pertains to a debt management performance assessment of Nigeria in 2012. Areas with very high scores include the managerial set-up, evaluation of debt management operations, as well as domestic and external borrowing practices. There have been substantial improvements in management of operational risks, demonstrated by the availability of procedures manuals and data security and back-ups, and in debt reporting.

A myopic economic constitution? : controlling the debt and the deficit without fiscal integration

ALMENDRAL, Violeta Ruiz
Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf; digital
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This paper assesses the actual implications that the current budgetary supervision legal framework (both in the EU Law and Member States) has had on the Economic Constitution. Although there are tangible implications for all EU Member States, and the EU as a whole, in this paper I will mainly focus in the Euro Area, where budgetary discipline rules have greater consequences. Budgetary discipline rules do not automatically entail austerity measures or undermine the powers of Parliaments, at least in theory. They have however probably had a crowding-out effect for the construction of a (real) economic union, in that measures to construct fiscal capacity and tax integration to discuss public spending or to attain a real banking union (to name just a few) have been watered down if not abandoned outright.

FOREIGN DEBT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND THE PROBABILITY OF DEFAULT (HONDURAS)

LEVEN, RONALD LOUIS
Fonte: Universidade Rice Publicador: Universidade Rice
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Most less developed countries are dependent on external borrowing to achieve high sustained economic growth. However, external borrowing requires fixed payments independent of the actual return on the invested funds. If a country either invests the money inefficiently or is subject to unexpected difficulties, it may not be able to meet contracted service payments. Potential debt servicing problems have existed for many years, and recently, the actual occurrence of service interruptions has become much more frequent. Despite the difficulty of servicing debt, it is optimal, in an economic sense, for less developed countries to borrow abroad. Foreign capital goods are usually scarce in less developed countries so their productivity is relatively high. Foreign borrowing allows more imports of capital without forcing down consumption. As long as the productivity of the capital exceeds its cost, debt servicing problems should not arise. A study of Honduras indicates that real GDP growth can be increased through foreign borrowing. However, the higher level of debt raises the likelihood of debt servicing difficulties. Even when the use of debt is efficient, a heavier debt burden makes Honduras more susceptible to unexpected shocks. But if GDP growth is not overly ambitious...

Estudio comparativo de los tipos y niveles de inversión de los particulares frente al nivel y tipo de endeudamiento de los mismos en España; Comparative study of the types and levels of private investment against the level and type of debt in Spain

Ruiz Bercedo, Juan
Fonte: Universidade de Cantabria Publicador: Universidade de Cantabria
Tipo: Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso
Português
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RESUMEN: La situación patrimonial de los hogares es uno de los principales agregados económicos que refleja la situación financiera de un país, y de su análisis se puede extraer algunas de las causas, así como los efectos de la crisis económica actual. Este trabajo trata de analizar la evolución que han tenido la inversión y el endeudamiento de los hogares en los últimos años, en los que hemos vivido tanto una etapa de crecimiento económico, como una fuerte recesión y posterior crisis, que actualmente padecemos y cuyos efectos van a ser todavía notables en los próximos años. Los hogares se enfrentan a un complejo problema demográfico, por el cual están cambiando sus decisiones de inversión. A raíz de esto, se explicarán los motivos que les han llevado a tomar dichas decisiones, analizando como invertían antes de la crisis y cómo lo hacen ahora, diferenciando la evolución de las inversiones en activos reales y en activos financieros y destacando el papel que ha tenido el sector inmobiliario en la evolución de estas variables. El mercado inmobiliario, siempre en alza, y unos tipos de interés bajos provocaron la facilidad de crédito por parte de los bancos. De este modo, se analizará cómo gracias a la cultura de la propiedad de la vivienda que se da en nuestro país...

International Debt Statistics 2013

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
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International Debt Statistics (IDS) presents data and analysis information on the external debt of developing countries for 2011, based on actual flows and debt related transactions reported to the World Bank Debtor Reporting System (DRS) by 128 developing countries. It replaces Global Development Finance, which has been discontinued, and provides users with comprehensive stock and flow data on the external debt of individual developing countries and or regional and analytical groupings. As a service to users international debt statistics also set debt flows within the broader framework of aggregate net capital flows (debt and equity) to developing countries and includes a summary analysis of trends in 2011. The remainder of the overview is organized as follows. Section one analyze the key factors driving the evolution of developing countries' debt stocks and flows in 2011. Section two describes recent trends in external debt flows to developing countries, including the financing pattern of different categories of creditors and the concentration of flows in specific countries and country groups. Section three examines the remarkable growth of private nonguaranteed debt over the course of the decade and the parallel diversification of borrowing instruments available to developing countries' private sector borrowers. Section four assesses the level of developing countries' external debt...

Union of the Comoros : Debt Management Performance Assessment; Comores - Outil d'evaluation de la performance en matiere de gestion de la dette(DeMPA)

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, Dc Publicador: Washington, Dc
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: General Economy, Macroeconomics and Growth Study; Economic & Sector Work
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This study shows that performance in terms of debt management has been weakened by recurrent political and institutional crises experienced by the country in recent years and has had a negative impact on the State's ability to both mobilize external financing and to honor its financial commitments. The accumulation of external arrears has increased by extension of the depletion sources of funding. However, the government recently initiated numerous actions contributing to a more serene climate at home with the establishment of democratic governance, developing a program of poverty reduction and regularization of arrears. This more favorable environment will soon pave the way for more substantial outside funding, especially following the accession of the Comoros to the enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC), and therefore requires the full attention of the authorities to implement better management of public debt. This evaluation is part of this perspective. Overall, performance in terms of debt management in the Comoros is satisfactory in all three of the following areas: (i) coordination with fiscal policy...

Policy Selectivity Forgone: Debt and Donor Behavior in Africa

Birdsall, Nancy; Claessens, Stijn; Diwan, Ishac
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Journal Article; Publications & Research :: Journal Article; Publications & Research
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Authors assess the dynamics behind the high net resource transfers by donors and creditors to Sub-Saharan African countries. Analyzing the determinants of overall net transfers for a panel of 37 recipient countries in 1978-98, Authors find that country policies mattered little. Donors especially bilateral donors actually made greater transfers to countries with high debt, largely owed to multilateral creditors, when policies were 'bad'. Authors conclude that comprehensive debt relief has the potential, though not the certainty, to restore selectivity in support of good policies. That would make development assistance more effective going forward and increase public support in donor countries.

Shadow Sovereign Ratings for Unrated Developing Countries

Ratha, Dilip; De, Prabal; Mohapatra, Sanket
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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36.38%
The authors attempt to predict sovereign ratings for developing countries that do not have risk ratings from agencies such as Fitch, Moody's, and Standard and Poor's. Ratings affect capital flows to developing countries through international bond, loan, and equity markets. Sovereign rating also acts as a ceiling for the foreign currency rating of sub-sovereign borrowers. As of the end of 2006, however, only 86 developing countries have been rated by the rating agencies. Of these, 15 countries have not been rated since 2004. Nearly 70 developing countries have never been rated. The results indicate that the unrated countries are not always at the bottom of the rating spectrum. Several unrated poor countries appear to have a "B" or higher rating, in a similar range as the emerging market economies with capital market access. Drawing on the literature, the analysis presents a stylized relationship between borrowing costs and the credit rating of sovereign bonds. The launch spread rises as the credit rating deteriorates...

United Republic of Tanzania - Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability Review 2009

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Public Expenditure Review
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The budget analysis section constitutes the 'core analyses of the Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability Review (PEFAR) 2009 report. The rapid budget analysis 2009 and the budget execution analysis 2009 are two key inputs into the report's core analysis. The report presents an overview of the main findings and key messages of the various sector and thematic reports carried out as part of the rapid budget analysis and budget execution analysis of the 2008-09 cycle. The analysis in this part of the report utilizes both budget estimates and actual expenditure data. The budget estimate data used are as originally approved by the Parliament, while the actual expenditure data used are as generated from the Integrated Financial Management System (IFMS). The actual expenditure data are in some parts complemented by the data downloaded from the 'logintanzania' website, especially data for Local Government Authorities (LGAs). As much as possible, the analysis is cast from a medium term perspective, with both budget estimates and actual spending data giving a three year trend or more in order to make some meaningful comparison. The last stage of the analysis in this part addresses the question of whether actual expenditures in 2008-09 were consistent with the original approved budget. It also examines the question of whether the budget achieves its stated impact on the ground...

A Retrospective on the Mexican Toll Road Program (1989-94)

Ruster, Jeff
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Viewpoint; Publications & Research
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Mexico's private toll road program more than doubled the national toll road network from 1989 to 1994. The investment of approximately US$13 billion in the program was sourced from local commercial bank debt, concessionaire equity, and federal and state government grants and equity contribution. However, gross miscalculation of investment costs and operating income led to an unsustainable set of operating conditions for these limited recourse financings. The financial equilibrium of the sector was further undermined by the Mexican currency crisis of December 1994. All these brought the project development to a standstill and resulted in widespread financial and economic repercussions. Some industry observers have characterized the toll road program as a poorly designed effort to develop the infrastructure the country needed to compete effectively in an era of free trade. From a private investment perspective the impact was to shut off capital flows to the sector and to add to the Mexican banking system s non-performing loan portfolio. This Note presents a diagnostic of key policy...

Chile's State-Guaranteed Student Loan Program : Analysis and Evaluation; Programa de Credito Con Aval del Estado (CAE) de Chile

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Education Study; Economic & Sector Work
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Chile's Programa de Credito con Aval del Estado (CAE in its Spanish acronym) is uniquely positioned to help hundreds of thousands of qualified-but-financially-needy Chileans attend and finish tertiary education. The CAE program was designed to improve access to and equity in tertiary education. In 2010, after only four years of operation, the Program had 216,000 active borrowers or 23 percent of the 940,000 students in pre-grado. Even as the annual number of new beneficiaries levels off, the portfolio will increase for the next several years until reaching a steady state with approximately 460,000 active borrowers by 2016. This report is part of the 2010 Joint Studies Program between the Government of Chile and the World Bank. The purpose of the study is three-fold. First, to evaluate the impact of this program on access to and equity in higher education, taking into account the effectiveness of targeting qualified but financially needy students and its complementarities with other major student aid mechanisms. Second...

Capital structure of listed portuguese companies: determinants of debt adjustment

Serrasqueiro, Zélia; Rogão, Márcia
Fonte: Instituto Politécnico de Bragança Publicador: Instituto Politécnico de Bragança
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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Purpose – This study aims to evaluate the impact of listed Portuguese companies' specific determinants on adjustment of actual debt towards target debt ratio. The specific determinants on adjustment of actual debt towards target debt ratio that we consider are: asset tangibility, size, profitability and market to book ratio. Design/methodology/approach – Dynamic panel estimators are used to determine adjustment of the actual level of debt towards optimal level of debt, revealing the level of transaction costs borne by companies. OLS regressions are also used, in order to estimate the impacts of companies' specific determinants on debt adjustment. Findings – The results suggest that transaction costs are relevant in listed Portuguese companies' access to debt. Tangibility of assets and size are determinants that contribute for a greater adjustment of debt towards optimal level. The results also suggest that the capital structure decisions of listed Portuguese companies can be explained in the light of trade-off and pecking order theories, and not according to what is forecast by market timing theory. Originality/value – Through this study, the level of adjustment of actual debt towards target debt ratio in the context of companies belonging to under-developed capital markets are determined...

Impacto de la deuda pública externa colombiana en la balanza de pagos 2007-2012; Impact of colombia´s foreign debt in the balance of payments for the period 2007-2012

Rodriguez Calderón, Martha Lucía; Segura Ovalle, Viviana Marcela
Fonte: Universidad Militar Nueva Granada; Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Especialización en Finanzas y Administración Pública Publicador: Universidad Militar Nueva Granada; Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Especialización en Finanzas y Administración Pública
Tipo: bachelorThesis; Trabajo de grado Formato: pdf; pdf
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Este ensayo es resultado de una investigación documental sobre el impacto de la Deuda Pública Externa colombiana en la Balanza de Pagos para el periodo 2007 a 2012. En el marco de la situación actual del país, se seleccionó este tema debido a que la Deuda Pública Externa representa una de las fuentes más importantes de financiación del Gobierno Nacional determinado a cumplir las necesidades generadas en el país como la inversión y el desarrollo de las políticas y metas gubernamentales. Unido a esto, la Balanza de Pagos es un componente principal en el análisis económico en donde se puede determinar la necesidad de endeudamiento partiendo del déficit que se presente. Es así como existe cierta vulnerabilidad en la Balanza de Pagos debido al comportamiento de la Deuda Pública Externa, la cual ha venido presentado una tendencia creciente repercutiendo en los pasivos de la cuenta de capital en la Balanza de Pagos.; This essay is the result of an investigation documentary about the impact of Colombia's foreign debt in the Balance of Payments for the period 2007-2012. In the context of the current situation of the country, was selected this topic because the External Public Debt is one of the most important sources of financing Government determined to meet the needs arising in the country as investment for the development of the governmental policies and goals. Linked to this...

La deuda pública en las finanza del estado; Public debt in the state finance

Machuca Sanabria, Juan José; Ferrer, Luis Gabriel
Fonte: Universidad Militar Nueva Granada; Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Especialización en Finanzas y Administración Pública Publicador: Universidad Militar Nueva Granada; Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Especialización en Finanzas y Administración Pública
Tipo: bachelorThesis; Trabajo de grado Formato: pdf; pdf
Português
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36.3%
El presente ensayo expone la situación de la deuda pública colombiana para el periodo 2000 – 2012, en primer lugar presenta de forma breve los antecedentes, la estructura actual, su clasificación y las principales diferencias de ésta. Seguidamente, se muestran los resultados de los saldos de la deuda pública tanto interna como externa, separadas por Gobierno Nacional y nivel territorial, describiendo su composición y evolución. Luego se especifican algunas de las causas de la mejora de indicadores y qué tanto se debió a cambios en la estructura de la deuda; se realiza un análisis del servicio a la deuda, sus componentes y cómo fue el comportamiento respecto del Producto Interno Bruto. Finalmente, se hace una exposición sobre la sostenibilidad de la deuda.; This paper describes the Colombian public debt situation between 2000 and 2012. First, it shows the history, the current structure, classification and major differences of this. Next, the balance’s results of both internal and external public debt, separated by National Government and a Territorial Level and describing its composition and evolution. Then it specify some causes of improved indicators, how much it was due to changes in debt structure, and an analysis of debt service...

The European debt crisis: Defaults and market equilibrium

Lagi, Marco; Bar-Yam, Yaneer
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 27/09/2012 Português
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During the last two years, Europe has been facing a debt crisis, and Greece has been at its center. In response to the crisis, drastic actions have been taken, including the halving of Greek debt. Policy makers acted because interest rates for sovereign debt increased dramatically. High interest rates imply that default is likely due to economic conditions. High interest rates also increase the cost of borrowing and thus cause default to be likely. If there is a departure from equilibrium, increasing interest rates may contribute to---rather than be caused by---default risk. Here we build a quantitative equilibrium model of sovereign default risk that, for the first time, is able to determine if markets are consistently set by economic conditions. We show that over the period 2001-2012, the annually-averaged long-term interest rates of Greek debt are quantitatively related to the ratio of debt to GDP. The relationship shows that the market consistently expects default to occur if the Greek debt reaches twice the GDP. Our analysis does not preclude non-equilibrium increases in interest rates over shorter timeframes. We find evidence of such non-equilibrium fluctuations in a separate analysis. According to the equilibrium model, the date by which a half-default must occur is March 2013...