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Determinantes da disponibilidade de crédito de longo prazo no Brasil: uma análise da linha Finem do BNDES; Determinants of long-term credit availability in Brazil: an analysis of the Finem line of credit from BNDES

Menegário, Alexandre Hattnher
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 30/05/2012 Português
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55.98%
A busca por maior disponibilidade de crédito de longo prazo para investimentos produtivos vem adquirindo importância no Brasil, pois possibilita que empresas se lancem em empreendimentos de média e grande escala, alimentando o processo de crescimento econômico e desenvolvimento do País. A modalidade Financiamento a Empreendimentos (Finem) do BNDES é uma das poucas linhas de crédito bancário interna que oferece a possibilidade de financiamento de projetos de investimento de montantes elevados e longo prazo de maturação. No entanto, o montante disponibilizado por essa linha vem apresentando pequena evolução em relação ao PIB. Esperava-se aumento dessa disponibilidade com o Plano Real e a criação de um ambiente econômico propício ao planejamento de longo prazo, o que não ocorreu. Assim, este estudo tem por objetivo avaliar os principais fatores que influenciam a disponibilidade de crédito de longo prazo no Brasil destinado a investimentos produtivos, visando não somente expandir essa disponibilidade como também criar condições para que bancos múltiplos venham a atuar com maior vigor nesse processo. No modelo estudado, foram incluídas como variáveis, além daquela de maior interesse, os desembolsos da linha Finem...

On the allocation of credit and aggregate fluctuations

Gomes,Orlando
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/12/2010 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.82%
Recent literature on financial development and growth has highlighted the possibility of endogenous business cycles arising for particular levels of a given credit multiplier. These studies concentrate on loans directed to the productive activity and neglect the role of credit to consumption. In this paper, we consider an endogenous growth model, where a representative agent must choose how to allocate credit; basically, the agent considers a simple rule where the share of credit to consumption reacts to deviations of the consumption - wealth ratio relatively to the corresponding steady state level. The setup generates nonlinear dynamics, which are analyzed both locally and globally.

Global Survey of Development Banks

de Luna-Martinez, José; Vicente, Carlos Leonardo
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.89%
Historically, development banks have been an important instrument of governments to promote economic growth by providing credit and a wide range of advisory and capacity building programs to households, small and medium enterprises, and even large private corporations, whose financial needs are not sufficiently served by private commercial banks or local capital markets. During the current financial crisis, most development banks in Latin America, followed by Asia, Africa, and Europe, have assumed a countercyclical role by scaling up their lending operations exactly when private banks experienced temporary difficulties in granting credit to the private sector. Despite the importance of development banks during crisis and non-crisis periods, little is known about them. This survey examines how development banks operate, what their policy mandates are, what financial services they offer, which type of clients they target, how they are regulated and supervised, what business models they have adopted, what governance framework they have...

A Review of Credit Guarantee Schemes in the Middle East and North Africa Region

Saadani, Youssef; Arvai, Zsofia; Rocha, Roberto
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.91%
Many countries in the MENA region have established partial credit guarantee schemes to facilitate SME access to finance. These schemes can play an important role, especially in a period where MENA governments are making efforts to improve the effectiveness of credit registries and bureaus and strengthen creditor rights. This paper reviews the design of partial credit guarantee schemes in MENA, and assesses their preliminary outcomes. The paper is based on a survey conducted in 10 MENA countries in early 2010. The authors find that the average size of guarantee schemes in MENA (measured by the total value of outstanding guarantees) is in line with the international average, although there are wide differences across countries, and some schemes seem too small to make any significant impact. Most importantly, the number of guarantees looks generally small while their average value looks large. This suggests that guarantee schemes are not yet reaching the smaller firms. Guarantee schemes in MENA look financially sound and most schemes have room to grow. However...

Export Incentives, Financial Constraints, and the (Mis)Allocation of Credit : Micro-level Evidence from Subsidized Export Loans

Zia, Bilal H.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.89%
This paper combines an exogenous shock to the supply of subsidized credit with unique loan-level data from the export sector in Pakistan to identify the impact and allocation of such financial incentives. The removal of subsidized credit causes a significant decline in the exports of privately owned firms, while the exports of large, publicly listed, and group network firms are unaffected. Publicly listed firms make no significant adjustments to their balance sheets, and only their profits are reduced, indicating that they are financially unconstrained. Nearly half of all subsidized loans are assigned to such firms, implying a substantial misallocation of credit and an output loss to privately owned firms of 0.75% of GDP. Productivity differences do not explain the heterogeneous effects across firms.

Who Gets the Credit? And Does It Matter? Household vs. Firm Lending across Countries

Beck, Thorsten; Büyükkarabacak, Berrak; Rioja, Felix; Valev, Neven
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.91%
While the theoretical and empirical finance literature has focused almost exclusively on enterprise credit, about half of credit extended by banks to the private sector in a sample of 45 developing and developed countries is to households. The share of household credit in total credit increases as countries grow richer and financial systems develop. Cross-country regressions, however, suggest a positive and significant impact on gross domestic product per capita growth only of enterprise but not household credit. These two findings together partly explain why previous studies have found a small or insignificant effect of finance on growth in high-income countries. In addition, countries with a lower share of manufacturing, a higher degree of urbanization, and more market-oriented financial systems have a higher share of household credit. It is thus mostly socio-economic trends that determine credit composition, while policies influencing banking market structure and regulatory policies are not robustly related to credit composition.

Technical Note on the Methodology for the Allocation of Intergovernmental Grants in the Republic of Belarus

Timofeev, Andrey; Martinez-Vazquez, Jorge
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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65.9%
This technical note evaluates the methodology proposed by the Ministry of Finance for the allocation of transfers to subnational governments and suggest a number of alternative options for various grant design elements Overall, the framework laid out in the Budget Code and the implementation approach developed in the draft methodology conform to sound principles in fiscal decentralization and the best international practices. However, a number of elements of the methodology still need to be elaborated and some elements might need to be revised.

Belarus Country Economic Memorandum : Eeconomic Transformation for Growth

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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55.94%
The last decade in Belarus was marked by an average economic growth rate of close to 8 percent annually and an impressive eight-fold reduction in poverty. Economic growth was initially driven by external factors, but after 2005 expansionary domestic demand became the prevalent contributor to growth. Growth was backed by large state support to the economy, sizeable public investments, and huge expansion of credit, particularly under government directed lending programs. Simultaneously, the external balance shifted from a surplus of 1.4 percent of growth development product (GDP) in 2005 to a deficit of 15.0 percent of GDP in 2010. Throughout the period 2001-10, the economic model relied on underpriced energy resources from Russia, with an annual average size of the imputed subsidy of over 13 percent of GDP. However, the existing growth model has reached its limits and cannot ensure growth sustainability without structural reforms. Going forward, the growth model will have to rely on significant productivity gains driven by structural reforms in an environment of macroeconomic stability. Macroeconomic adjustment which effectively combats the sources of external imbalances in Belarus is a critical and necessary...

What Have We Learned from a Decade of Manufacturing Enterprise Surveys in Africa?

Bigsten, Arne; Söderbom, Måns
Fonte: Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank Publicador: Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.9%
In the early 1990s the World Bank launched the Regional Program on Enterprise Development (RPED) in several African countries, a key component of which was to collect data on manufacturing firms. The data sets built by these and subsequent enterprise surveys in Africa generated considerable research. This article surveys the research on the African business environment, focusing on risk, access to credit, labor, and infrastructure, and on how firms organize themselves and do business. It reviews the research on enterprise performance, including enterprise growth, investment, and exports. The article concludes with a discussion of policy lessons.

Credit Constraints, Agricultural Productivity, and Rural Nonfarm Participation : Evidence from Rwanda

Ali, Daniel Ayalew; Deininger, Klaus; Duponchel, Marguerite
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.9%
Although the potentially negative impacts of credit constraints on economic development have long been discussed conceptually, empirical evidence for Africa remains limited. This study uses a direct elicitation approach for a national sample of Rwandan rural households to assess empirically the extent and nature of credit rationing in the semi-formal sector and its impact using an endogenous sample separation between credit-constrained and unconstrained households. Being credit constrained reduces the likelihood of participating in off-farm self-employment activities by about 6.3 percent while making participation in low-return farm wage labor more likely. Even within agriculture, elimination of all types of credit constraints in the semi-formal sector could increase output by some 17 percent. Two suggestions for policy emerge from the findings. First, the estimates suggest that access to information (education, listening to the radio, and membership in a farm cooperative) has a major impact on reducing the incidence of credit constraints in the semi-formal credit sector. Expanding access to information in rural areas thus seems to be one of the most promising strategies to improve credit access in the short term. Second...

The Economic Effects of a Borrower Bailout : Evidence from an Emerging Market

Gine, Xavier; Kanz, Martin
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.08%
This paper studies the credit market implications and real effects of one the largest borrower bailout programs in history, enacted by the government of India against the backdrop of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The study finds that the stimulus program had no effect on productivity, wages, or consumption, but led to significant changes in credit allocation and an increase in defaults. Post-program loan performance declines faster in districts with greater exposure to the program, an effect that is not driven by greater risk-taking of banks. Loan defaults become significantly more sensitive to the electoral cycle after the program, suggesting the anticipation of future credit market interventions as an important channel through which moral hazard in loan repayment is intensified.

Financial Sector Assessment : Republic of Korea

International Monetary Fund; World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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55.88%
The initial assessment under the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) was undertaken in 2003. The first Update mission (April 2013) assessed the observance of selected international standards and codes, and initiated discussions on a broad range of financial sector stability issues. In the case of each of the sector assessments new methodologies adopted since the global financial crisis were employed. The second mission (July 2013) completed its review, documented its assessment in a draft Aide-Memoire, and reviewed with the authorities the Aide-Memoire as well as draft technical notes covering a range of topics. The objectives of the FSAP were to review developments in the financial sector since the initial 2003 FSAP and in light of the lessons from the global financial crisis, assess and formulate recommendations related to financial stability and the financial sector oversight framework. This report presents main findings and recommendations.

Formal Versus Informal Finance : Evidence from China

Ayyagari, Meghana; Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66%
China is often mentioned as a counterexample to the findings in the finance and growth literature since, despite the weaknesses in its banking system, it is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. The fast growth of Chinese private sector firms is taken as evidence that it is alternative financing and governance mechanisms that support China's growth. This paper takes a closer look at firm financing patterns and growth using a database of 2,400 Chinese firms. The authors find that a relatively small percentage of firms in the sample utilize formal bank finance with a much greater reliance on informal sources. However, the results suggest that despite its weaknesses, financing from the formal financial system is associated with faster firm growth, whereas fund raising from alternative channels is not. Using a selection model, the authors find no evidence that these results arise because of the selection of firms that have access to the formal financial system. Although firms report bank corruption...

On the Use of Portfolio Risk Models and Capital Requirements in Emerging Markets : The Case of Argentina

Balzarotti, Veronica; Falkenheim, Michael; Powell, Andrew
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Journal Article; Publications & Research :: Journal Article; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.9%
A portfolio based model (Credit Risk of Credit Suisse First Boston) and recent Central Bank of Argentina credit bureau data are used to estimate whether current capital and provisioning regulations match actual risks. Arguing that provisions should cover expected losses and that capital requirements should cover potential losses beyond expected losses subject to some statistical level of tolerance, the article assesses how well actual capital and provisioning requirements match the estimated requirements given by the model. Actual provisioning requirements were found to be close to implied levels of expected losses. The estimate of potential losses was found to be highly sensitive to the assumptions of the model, especially the parameter relating the volatility of a loan's rate of default to its mean value. This volatility parameter cannot be estimated accurately with the credit bureau data because of the short time span covered, so proxy data were used to estimate it, and two values around that estimate were tried. The difficulty of estimating this critical parameter implies that the results should only be regarded as suggestive. Moreover...

Latin America Copes with Volatility, the Dark Side of Globalization; Latinoamerica hace frente a la volatilidad, el lado oscuro de la globalizacion

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.96%
Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region were bumping against capacity constraints with unemployment reaching historically low levels and economic activity hitting bottlenecks and central banks were thus engaged in combating upward price pressures through tighter monetary policies. The focus of attention was, as a result, shifting towards the longer-term growth and equity agendas in what appeared to be a more tranquil global environment. This LAC region continues on a relatively robust growth path after a remarkable performance in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. In effect, as discussed in our April 2011 report "LAC success put to the test," the region's recession in 2009 was relatively short lived and surprisingly mild compared to other middle-income countries (MICs) and to its own past and its recovery in 2010-2011 strong. This report starts by setting the stage on the external environment. It provides an overview of recent economic developments and the prospects for the LAC region in coming months...

Financial Liberalization and Allocative Efficiency of Capital

Kukenova, Madina
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.1%
Financial liberalization may have a positive effect on growth not only through the increase in the quantity of the available funds, but also through a more efficient allocation of resources across firms and sectors. Despite this intuitive appeal, there is little empirical evidence on the positive effect of financial liberalization on capital allocation. The main difficulty of investigating the linkage between liberalization of financial markets and capital allocation efficiency lies in the fact that the efficiency of capital allocation is not directly observable. One way to address this issue is to evaluate the effect of financial liberalization within the Heckscher-Ohlin framework. Producing and exporting products inconsistent with a country's factor endowments constitutes a serious misallocation of the funds, which undermines competitiveness of the economy and inhibits its long run growth. This paper tests the allocative efficiency hypothesis by evaluating the effect of stock market liberalization on the survival of different product categories using export data for 91 countries over the period of 1975-2003. Preliminary results suggest that after liberalization of the domestic stock market...

Channels of Transmission of the 2007/09 Global Crisis to International Bank Lending in Developing Countries

Adams-Kane, Jonathon; Jia, Yueqing; Lim, Jamus Jerome
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.01%
During a financial crisis, credit provision by international banks may be stymied by three distinct, but related, channels: changes in lending standards as a result of increased economic uncertainty, changes in funding availability from interbank liquidity markets, and changes in solvency due to effects on bank balance sheets. This paper illuminates the manner by which each of these channels independently operated to affect developed-country bank lending in developing countries during the global financial crisis of 2007/09. It quantifies how changes in banks' uncertainty about the value of their asset holdings, access to interbank liquidity, and internal balance sheet considerations altered their supply of credit in the run-up, during, and in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis, both in terms of their relative magnitudes, as well as the sensitivity of these magnitudes to the crisis.

Causes and Implications of Credit Rationing in Rural Ethiopia : The Importance of Spatial Variation

Ayalew Ali, Daniel; Deininger, Klaus
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.02%
This paper uses Ethiopian data to explore credit rationing in semi-formal credit markets and its effects on farmers' resource allocation and crop productivity. Credit rationing -- both voluntarily and involuntarily -- is found to be widespread in the sampled rural villages, largely because of risk-related factors. Political and social networks emerge as key determinants of access to credit among smallholder, peasant farmers. Significant regional variation emerges as well. In high-potential, surplus producing areas where credit is largely used for agricultural production, eliminating credit constraints is estimated to increase productivity by roughly 11 percentage points. By contrast, in low-productivity, drought prone areas where loans were rarely used to acquire inputs for crop production, the authors find no relationship between credit rationing and agricultural productivity. To be effective, efforts to improve agricultural productivity not only need to increase credit supply, but also explore the reasons for credit rationing and the availability of productive opportunities.

Measuring the Performance and Achievement of Social Objectives of Development Finance Institutions

Francisco, Manuela; Mascaró, Yira; Mendoza, Juan Carlos; Yaron, Jacob
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.05%
This paper develops and tests a proposed methodology that puts forward a new integrated method for evaluating the performance of development finance institutions. This methodology applies assessment criteria that take into account both the social objective that the development finance institution addresses and the subsidies it received in order to achieve such an objective. This methodology is applied to two pilot case studies-Banadesa (Honduras) and Banrural (Guatemala). The authors calculate the previously tested subsidy dependence index, which measures the degree of an institution's subsidy dependence. The paper develops and estimates a new measure-the output index- which indicates the level to which the institution fulfills the social objectives of the state. The analysis integrates the subsidy dependence index and the output index to assess the effectiveness associated with meeting the social objective. The findings suggest that the integration of the two indexes can constitute the basis of a meaningful evaluation framework for the performance of development finance institutions. This new methodology can also be a useful metric for policy makers who are seeking to decide on an optimal allocation of scarce funds for development finance institutions that pursue social goals and for management that seeks improved performance outcomes.

On the allocation of credit and aggregate fluctuations

Gomes, O.
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2010 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.82%
SCIELO:S0034-71402010000400003 (Nº de Acesso Web of Science); Recent literature on financial development and growth has highlighted the possibility of endogenous business cycles arising for particular levels of a given credit multiplier. These studies concentrate on loans directed to the productive activity and neglect the role of credit to consumption. In this paper, we consider an endogenous growth model, where a representative agent must choose how to allocate credit; basically, the agent considers a simple rule where the share of credit to consumption reacts to deviations of the consumption - wealth ratio relatively to the corresponding steady state level. The setup generates nonlinear dynamics, which are analyzed both locally and globally.