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Application of alternative regression models to deal with proportions as dependent variables

Marques, José Lourenço Pires
Fonte: Instituto Universitário de Lisboa Publicador: Instituto Universitário de Lisboa
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em 09/03/2012 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
35.99%
Mestrado em Finanças; The main purpose of this thesis is to consider different approaches to deal with proportions as dependent variables in regression models. The Classical Linear Regression Model (CLRM) is the approach that most researchers apply to their data. However, the CLRM is inappropriate to deal with bounded variables whose response is restricted into the interval (0, 1) as dependent variables since it may possibly yield fitted values for the variable of interest that surpass its lower and upper limits. Due to the CLRM weaknesses, in this thesis we will consider some alternative parametric regression models that include the additive logistic normal distribution, the censored normal distribution, the Beta distribution and the normal distribution with nonlinear response function. A quasi-parametric regression approach will also be considered. In the empirical case we consider a dataset with financial information from US firms. The dependent variable of the models we intend to estimate is the debt to maturity, which is measured as a proportion of the total debt of the firm that has a maturity larger than three years. The explanatory variables are the abnormal earnings, the asset maturity and the size of the firm. To compare the above models will be used the Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) and Schwarz criterion (SBC). The distribution that displays the lowest values on both criteria is the best to study proportions as dependent variables. We will also study the adjusted value of each model.; Com esta tese pretendem-se considerar vários modelos de regressão alternativos ao lidar com proporções...

Emerging Economies in the 2000s : Real Decoupling and Financial Recoupling

Yeyati, Eduardo Levy; Williams, Tomas
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.31%
The paper documents an intriguing development in the emerging world in the 2000s: a decoupling from the business cycle of advanced countries, combined with the strengthening of the co-movements in the main emerging market assets that predates the synchronized sell-off during the crisis. In addition, the paper tests the hypothesis that financial globalization, to the extent that it creates a common, global investor base for emerging markets, could lead to a tighter asset correlation despite the weaker economic ties. While an examination of the impact of alternative financial globalization proxies does not yield conclusive results, a closer look at global emerging market equity and bond funds shows that the latter indeed foster financial recoupling during downturns, reflecting the fact that they trade near their respective benchmarks and respond to withdrawals by liquidating holdings across the board.

Global Imbalances Before and After the Global Crisis

Servén, Luis; Nguyen, Ha
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.39%
This paper surveys the academic and policy debate on the roots of global imbalances, their role in the inception of the global crisis, and their prospects in its aftermath. The conventional view holds that global imbalances result primarily from unsustainably high demand for goods in the United States and other rich countries, and that their impending correction must involve major United States trade adjustment and dollar depreciation -- although recent literature argues that their extent may be dampened by financial adjustment effects. In contrast, an alternative view portrays global imbalances as the equilibrium result of asymmetries in world asset demand and supply. Absent changes in the deep determinants of these, global imbalances can persist. International capital flow patterns before and during the crisis lend support to the equilibrium view. The paper also examines different hypotheses proposed in the literature on the role of global imbalances in the generation and propagation of the financial crisis. On the whole...

Assessing Asset Indices

Filmer, Deon; Scott, Kinnon
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.39%
This paper compares how results using various methods to construct asset indices match results using per capita expenditures. The analysis shows that inferences about inequalities in education, health care use, fertility, child mortality, as well as labor market outcomes are quite robust to the specific economic status measure used. The measures-most significantly per capita expenditures versus the class of asset indices-do not, however, yield identical household rankings. Two factors stand out in predicting the degree of congruence in rankings between per capita expenditures and an asset index. First is the extent to which per capita expenditures can be explained by observed household and community characteristics. In settings with small transitory shocks to expenditure, or with little measurement error in expenditure, the rankings yielded by the alternative approaches are most similar. Second is the extent to which expenditures are dominated by individually consumed goods such as food. Asset indices are typically derived from indicators of goods which are effectively public at the household level...

Chasing the Shadows : How Significant is Shadow Banking in Emerging Markets?

Ghosh, Swati; Gonzalez del Mazo, Ines; Ötker-Robe, İnci
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.41%
Broadly defined as credit intermediation involving entities and activities outside the regular banking system, shadow banking raises important policy concerns. Given significant challenges with data availability, the size, nature and significance of shadow banking in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) are even less discussed and understood. Shadow banking in EMDEs generally does not involve long, complex, opaque chains of intermediation, as is often the case in advanced economies. Nonetheless, it can pose systemic risks, both directly, as its importance in the total financial system grows (with the concomitant credit, market, and liquidity risks that its participants undertake), and indirectly through its interconnectedness with the regulated banking system. At the same time, shadow banks also play an important role in channeling alternative funding sources to EMDEs, especially as deleveraging pressures from European banks continue. This suggests that policy makers need to manage trade-offs carefully to ensure that shadow banks provide alternative but safe sources of funding to the private sector without generating additional systemic risks. Based on a snapshot of selected EMDEs in East Asia and in Central and Eastern Europe...

Private Equity and Venture Capital in SMEs in Developing Countries : The Role for Technical Assistance

Divakaran, Shanthi; McGinnis, Patrick J.; Shariff, Masood
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.32%
This paper discusses the constraints for private equity financing of small and medium enterprises in developing economies. In addition to capital, private equity investors bring knowledge and expertise to the companies in which they invest. Through active participation on the board of directors or in partnership with management, private equity investors equip companies with critical improvements in governance, financial accounting, access to markets, technology, and other drivers of business success. Although private equity investors could help to create, deepen, and expand growth of small and medium enterprises in developing economies, the vast majority of private equity in such markets targets larger or more established enterprises. Technical assistance, when partnered with private equity, can unlock more investor commitments and considerably enhance the ability of small and medium enterprises in emerging markets to raise private equity capital. Technical assistance provides funding that allows private equity funds to extend their reach to smaller companies. Technical assistance can mitigate some level of risk and increase the probability of successful investments by funding targeted operational improvements of investee companies. Dedicated technical assistance facilities financed by third parties...

Private Equity Regulation: What are the Consequences of the Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive (AIFMD) on Private Equity Managers?

Martignier, Romain Paul
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Tipo: Dissertação
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.24%
The recent global financial crisis brought significant regulatory changes in the worldwide financial industry. In Europe and in the alternative asset sector specifically, a new regulation by the name of Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive saw the daylight in 2010. This far-reaching and complex Directive with the main goal of regulating and overseeing alternative investment funds has triggered many discussions and represents an industry game-changer. Thus, this research will focus on the impact and consequences of the Directive on private equity fund managers and the role of regulators. In other words, what are the effects, what does that mean in a quantitative and qualitative sense, and how is it likely to influence the outlook of this asset class? In order to provide the reader with an extensive view on the topic, the paper will first discuss relevant theory and literature, using mix-methods and legal-dogmatic approaches. Further, descriptive case studies, analysis of existing surveys, and interviews with industry experts will supplement the paper in order to understand primary implications of the Directive with the goal of providing useful insights for further private equity regulation research.

Memória de longo prazo nos retornos acionistas dos índices de referência da euronext, implicações para a hipótese de mercados eficientes e contributo fractal para aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model.

Gomes, Luís Miguel Pereira
Fonte: Universidade Portucalense Publicador: Universidade Portucalense
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
Publicado em /12/2012 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.35%
Não existe uma definição única de processo de memória de longo prazo. Esse processo é geralmente definido como uma série que possui um correlograma decaindo lentamente ou um espectro infinito de frequência zero. Também se refere que uma série com tal propriedade é caracterizada pela dependência a longo prazo e por não periódicos ciclos longos, ou que essa característica descreve a estrutura de correlação de uma série de longos desfasamentos ou que é convencionalmente expressa em termos do declínio da lei-potência da função auto-covariância. O interesse crescente da investigação internacional no aprofundamento do tema é justificado pela procura de um melhor entendimento da natureza dinâmica das séries temporais dos preços dos ativos financeiros. Em primeiro lugar, a falta de consistência entre os resultados reclama novos estudos e a utilização de várias metodologias complementares. Em segundo lugar, a confirmação de processos de memória longa tem implicações relevantes ao nível da (1) modelação teórica e econométrica (i.e., dos modelos martingale de preços e das regras técnicas de negociação), (2) dos testes estatísticos aos modelos de equilíbrio e avaliação, (3) das decisões ótimas de consumo / poupança e de portefólio e (4) da medição de eficiência e racionalidade. Em terceiro lugar...

Adjusting the capital asset pricing model for the short-run with liquidity proxies, while accounting for denials and deceptions in financial markets

Mooney, John J., IV
Fonte: Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School Publicador: Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.37%
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.; William Sharpe's 1964 capital asset pricing model relies heavily on an accurate assessment of the asset's sensitivity to the broader market, termed _. By modifying the classic approach to incorporate liquidity of the asset, designated _', short-term return estimates may be improved. Specifically, in this research, the limit order book is used as a short-term proxy for liquidity assessments. Unfortunately, precise data were unavailable to test: however, detailed realistic examples are outlined in order to explore both rationale and critiques of the adjusted model. In light of the adjusted CAPM, modern market conditions, such as the rise in both high-frequency trading and alternative trading systems, are investigated to determine their impact on the model and asset pricing. Parallels can be drawn to appreciate these implementation obstacles under such information operation paradigms as denial, deception, and counterdeception. These topics, the protection of critical information from leakage, as well as the advancement and detection of deliberate misinformation, are increasingly critical for asset pricing. Furthermore, in response to these implementation obstacles, short-term asset pricing research is explored under both the efficient and adaptive market hypotheses. In conclusion...

Governance and Investment of Public Pension Assets : Practitioners' Perspectives

Rajkumar, Sudhir; Dorfman, Mark C.
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.3%
The impact of good governance on investment management and performance is immense. Several key factors contribute to good governance within pension funds, appropriate governance structures; well-defined accountabilities, policies, and procedures; and suitable processes for the selection and operation of governing bodies and managing institutions. Not surprisingly, good governance requires leadership by individuals with the expertise, professionalism, and integrity to navigate a fund's direction and withstand pressures from multiple constituencies. In the current context of aging populations in many countries, fiscal burdens on pension funds are increasing. At the same time, the necessity of delivering on pension commitments in contributory schemes means that governance, transparency, and accountability should be of utmost importance to pension fund managers. With these concerns in mind, part three of this book provides useful perspectives from senior managers of public pension funds, international pension authorities...

Alternative Mechanisms of Service Delivery : Legal and Regulatory Review, Volume 1. Main Text

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Legal and Judicial Sector Assessment; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
35.93%
This report reviews the Indonesian legal and regulatory framework that might support or obstruct the promotion of alternative mechanisms of service delivery (AMSD). AMSD, as it has been translated in Indonesian, is a term used especially in Canada to describe an array of strategies and tools that government can use to deliver services in "not the normal way'. 'Alternative' is used in the sense of 'alternative lifestyle" or 'not traditional'. The objectives of the project in relation to promoting AMSD within regional governments are: i) assistance to government in the rationalization of different institutional arrangements for the delivery of sub-national public services; and ii) aid in the development and implementation of new (contracting) methods for service delivery. The report aims to describe the current proximate legal and regulatory framework within which the eight strategies work. The report provides the basis for understanding where the strategies already have 'support' and where the framework needs improving or additions.

Toward Better Infrastructure : Conditions, Constraints, and Opportunities in Financing Public-Private Partnerships in Select African Countries

Shendy, Riham; Kaplan, Zachary; Mousley, Peter
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.37%
Examining innovative ways to address Africa's infrastructure deficit is at the heart of this analysis. Africa's infrastructure stock and quality is among the least developed in the world, a challenge that significantly hinders economic development. The study is structured around the most inhibiting constraints to developing PPPs, as shared by all six countries. Section one provides a brief background of the infrastructure needs in the sample countries and outlines the current scope of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) transactions; section two examines the sources of financing for PPPs domestic and foreign with a particular focus on domestic sources; section three explores the supporting legislative, regulatory, and institutional environment for PPPs; section four addresses issues connected with the importance of developing a sound pipeline of PPP projects; and section five tackles the importance of managing the increased government fiscal commitments that are commonly coupled with PPPs. Section six outlines medium-term options for PPP financing. Finally...

Sovereign Wealth Funds and Long-Term Development Finance : Risks and Opportunities

Gelb, Alan; Tordo, Silvana; Halland, Havard; Arfaa, Noora; Smith, Gregory
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.35%
Sovereign wealth funds represent a large and growing pool of savings. An increasing number of these funds are owned by natural resource exporting countries and have a variety of objectives, including intergenerational equity and macroeconomic stabilization. Traditionally, these funds have invested in external assets, especially securities traded in major markets. But the persistent infrastructure financing gap in developing countries has motivated some governments to encourage their sovereign wealth funds to invest domestically. This paper proposes some basic elements of a conceptual framework to create a system of checks and balances to help ensure that the sovereign wealth funds do not undermine macroeconomic management or become a vehicle for politically driven "investments." First, the risks and opportunities of domestic investment by sovereign wealth funds are analyzed. Central issues are the relationship of sovereign wealth fund financing to the budget process and to the procurement systems of sector ministries...

Upgrading the Investment Policy Framework of Public Pension Funds

Vittas, Dimitri; Impavido, Gregorio; O'Connor, Ronan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.46%
Public pension funds have the potential to benefit from low operating costs because they enjoy economies of scale and avoid large marketing costs. But this important advantage has in most countries been dissipated by poor investment performance. The latter has been attributed to a weak governance structure, lack of independence from government interference, and a low level of transparency and public accountability. Recent years have witnessed the creation of new public pension funds in several countries, and the modernization of existing ones in others, with special emphasis placed on upgrading their investment policy framework and strengthening their governance structure. This paper focuses on the experience of four new public pension funds that have been created in Norway, Canada, Ireland and New Zealand. The paper discusses the safeguards that have been introduced to ensure their independence and their insulation from political pressures. It also reviews their performance and their evolving investment strategies. All four funds started with the romantic idea of operating as 'managers of managers' and focusing on external passive management but their strategies have progressively evolved to embrace internal active management and significant investments in alternative asset classes. The paper draws lessons for other countries that wish to modernize their public pension funds.

Exact Multivariate Tests of Asset Pricing Models with Stable Asymmetric Distributions

BEAULIEU, Marie-Claude; DUFOUR, Jean-Marie; KHALAF, Lynda
Fonte: Université de Montréal Publicador: Université de Montréal
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: 204421 bytes; application/pdf
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.16%
In this paper, we propose exact inference procedures for asset pricing models that can be formulated in the framework of a multivariate linear regression (CAPM), allowing for stable error distributions. The normality assumption on the distribution of stock returns is usually rejected in empirical studies, due to excess kurtosis and asymmetry. To model such data, we propose a comprehensive statistical approach which allows for alternative - possibly asymmetric - heavy tailed distributions without the use of large-sample approximations. The methods suggested are based on Monte Carlo test techniques. Goodness-of-fit tests are formally incorporated to ensure that the error distributions considered are empirically sustainable, from which exact confidence sets for the unknown tail area and asymmetry parameters of the stable error distribution are derived. Tests for the efficiency of the market portfolio (zero intercepts) which explicitly allow for the presence of (unknown) nuisance parameter in the stable error distribution are derived. The methods proposed are applied to monthly returns on 12 portfolios of the New York Stock Exchange over the period 1926-1995 (5 year subperiods). We find that stable possibly skewed distributions provide statistically significant improvement in goodness-of-fit and lead to fewer rejections of the efficiency hypothesis.

Memória de longo prazo nos retornos acionistas dos índices de referência da euronext, implicações para a hipótese de mercados eficientes e contributo fractal para aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model

Gomes, Luís Pereira
Fonte: Universidade Portucalense Publicador: Universidade Portucalense
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
Publicado em //2012 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.35%
Não existe uma definição única de processo de memória de longo prazo. Esse processo é geralmente definido como uma série que possui um correlograma decaindo lentamente ou um espectro infinito de frequência zero. Também se refere que uma série com tal propriedade é caracterizada pela dependência a longo prazo e por não periódicos ciclos longos, ou que essa característica descreve a estrutura de correlação de uma série de longos desfasamentos ou que é convencionalmente expressa em termos do declínio da lei-potência da função auto-covariância. O interesse crescente da investigação internacional no aprofundamento do tema é justificado pela procura de um melhor entendimento da natureza dinâmica das séries temporais dos preços dos ativos financeiros. Em primeiro lugar, a falta de consistência entre os resultados reclama novos estudos e a utilização de várias metodologias complementares. Em segundo lugar, a confirmação de processos de memória longa tem implicações relevantes ao nível da (1) modelação teórica e econométrica (i.e., dos modelos martingale de preços e das regras técnicas de negociação), (2) dos testes estatísticos aos modelos de equilíbrio e avaliação, (3) das decisões ótimas de consumo / poupança e de portefólio e (4) da medição de eficiência e racionalidade. Em terceiro lugar...

Essays on Household Portfolio Choice

Addoum, Jawad M.
Fonte: Universidade Duke Publicador: Universidade Duke
Tipo: Dissertação
Publicado em //2012 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.35%

This dissertation consists of two essays on household portfolio choice. The first essay is entitled 'Household Portfolio Choice and Retirement'. In this first essay, I empirically examine the portfolio decisions of households as they transition into retirement. I document a novel stylized fact: holding household characteristics constant, singles maintain a relatively constant share of risky assets in their financial portfolios as they transition into retirement. On the other hand, couples decrease their share of risky assets significantly. I analyze this difference in behavior, and show that it is not driven by retirement-related background risks for couples relative to singles. Instead, I show that the heterogeneity within couples can be explained by the within-couple difference in spouses' individual risk aversion levels, and that the results are consistent with a net increase in couples' effective household-level risk aversion after retirement. Further, exploiting heterogeneity in couples' relative retirement dates, I show that husbands' and wives' respective retirement events are associated with very different (opposite-signed) persistent effects on the risky share of couples' portfolios. Moreover, I show that the relative magnitude of these persistent effects is consistent with the importance of each spouse's labor income within the household before retirement. Overall...

Modelos de precificação de ativos financeiros de fator único: um teste empírico dos modelos CAPM e D-CAPM; Single factor financial asset pricing models: an empirical test of the Capital Asset Pricing Model CAPM and the Downside Capital Asset Pricing Model D-CAPM

Paiva, Felipe Dias
Fonte: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade Publicador: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; ; ; ; ; ; Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 01/06/2005 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.33%
O objetivo deste estudo é analisar o capital asset pricing model (CAPM) e o downside capital asset pricing model (D-CAPM), bem como avaliar se este último modelo é uma eficiente alternativa de modelo de precificação de ativos. Os dados da pesquisa referem-se a 40 retornos de companhias listadas na Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo, de dezembro de 1996 a agosto de 2002. O artigo utilizou, para testar os modelos, as variáveis Certificado de Depósito Interbancário (CDI), como um ativo livre de risco, e o índice da Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo (Ibovespa), como proxy do portfólio de mercado. Conclui-se, então, que o D-CAPM possui uma maior capacidade explicativa dos retornos dos ativos se comparado ao CAPM.; This study analyzed the Capital Asset Pricing Model CAPM as well as the Downside Capital Asset Pricing Model D-CAPM and evaluated the latter as an efficient alternative asset pricing model. The returns of 40 companies on the São Paulo Stock Exchange BOVESPA were studied between December 1996 and August 2002. To test the models the study used as variables the Interbank Deposit Certificate CDI as a risk free asset and the Index of São Paulo Stock Exchange IBOVESPA as a proxy of the market portfolio. The D-CAPM was shown to be more useful in explaining the return of the stock market than the CAPM.

Monetary policy under alternative asset market structures: the case of a small open economy

De Paoli, Bianca
Fonte: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //2009 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.1%
Can the structure of asset markets change the way monetary policy should be conducted? Following a linear-quadratic approach, the present paper addresses this question in a New Keynesian small open economy framework. Our results reveal that the configuration of asset markets significantly affects optimal monetary policy and the performance of standard policy rules. In particular, when comparing complete and incomplete markets, the ranking of policy rules is entirely reversed, and so are the policy prescriptions regarding the optimal level of exchange rate volatility.

A theoretical and empirical study of asset securitisation: Risk modelling, security design and market pricing.

Jobst, Andreas Alexander
Fonte: London School of Economics and Political Science Thesis Publicador: London School of Economics and Political Science Thesis
Tipo: Thesis; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //2005 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.33%
Asset securitisation represents an alternative risk management and refinancing method, which allows issues to convert classifiable cash flows from a diversified portfolio of pre-existing assets and receivables (liquidity transformation and asset diversification process) of varying maturity and quality (integration and differentiation process) into negotiable capital market paper, so-called "asset-backed securities" (ABS). Over the recent past ambivalence in the definition of capital adequacy for credit risk has particularly facilitated the development of loan securitisation as a refined "regulatory arbitrage tool". However, as impending regulatory change shifts the prime objective of securitisation to the efficient management of economic capital, procedural and substantive aspects of asset securitisation warrant closer inspection. The dissertation presents a comprehensive examination of the risk modelling, asset selection, optimal security design and competitive market pricing of asset-backed securities. We first provide an overview of the main characteristics of asset securitisation and explain its attendant benefits and drawbacks, especially as they pertain to the refinancing of illiquid asset exposures, such as SME-related payment obligations. Subsequently...