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Natural Disasters and the Dynamics of Intangible Assets

López, Ramón
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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37.583416%
Empirical evidence suggests that the higher-order effects of natural disasters, which affect intangible assets, may be even more important than the material inter-industry effects. However, most existing general equilibrium models ignore higher order effects concerning human capital. Moreover, it is recognized that natural resource dependence increases vulnerability to natural disasters. Recent studies have indeed shown the potential importance of subsistence traps caused by asset losses in low-income economies from a partial equilibrium perspective. This paper presents an analysis that allows for endogenous investments in real assets (physical capital) as well as in human capital, explicitly considering the potential for subsistence traps arising from minimum consumption and minimum natural resource irreversibility thresholds. The general equilibrium ramifications of subsistence traps are developed. The main issue is that the economy may be subject to hysteresis: A temporary shock such as a natural disaster may leave permanent consequences for the economy. An obvious permanent effect of a one-time disaster shock is that physical man-made and natural assets owned especially by poor households may end up completely wiped out. The disaster may not be the direct cause; it may be that poor households would have to obtain minimum subsistence consumption out of depleted assets. However...

Risks, Ex-ante Actions and Public Assistance : Impacts of Natural Disasters on Child Schooling in Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Malawi

Yamauchi, Futoshi; Yohannes, Yisehac; Quisumbing, Agnes
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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27.500762%
This paper examines the impacts of natural disasters on schooling investments with special focus on the roles of ex-ante actions and ex-post responses using panel data from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Malawi. The importance of ex-ante actions depends on disaster risks and the likelihood of public assistance, which potentially creates substitution between the two actions. The findings show that higher future probabilities of disasters increase the likelihood of holding more human capital and/or livestock relative to land, and this asset-portfolio effect is significant in disaster prone areas. The empirical results support the roles of both ex-ante and ex-post responses (public assistance) in coping with disasters, but also show interesting variations across countries. In Ethiopia, public assistance plays a more important role than ex-ante actions to mitigate the impact of shocks on child schooling. In contrast, households in Malawi rely more on private ex-ante actions than public assistance. The Bangladesh example shows active roles of both ex-ante and ex-post actions. These observations are consistent with the finding on the relationship between ex-ante actions and disaster risks. The results also show that among ex-ante actions...

Postconflict Monetary Reconstruction

Adam, Christopher; Collier, Paul; Davies, Victor A.B.
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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37.099172%
During civil wars governments typically resort to inflation to raise revenue. A model of this phenomenon is presented, estimated, and applied to the choices and constraints faced during the postconflict period. The results show that far from there being a fiscal peace dividend, postconflict governments tend to face even more pressing needs after than during war. As a result, in the absence of postconflict aid, inflation increases sharply, frustrating a more general monetary recovery. Aid decisively transforms the path of monetary variables in the postconflict period, enabling the economy to regain peacetime characteristics. Postconflict aid thus achieves a monetary "reconstruction" analogous to its more evident role in infrastructure.

A Cost Effective Solution to Reduce Disaster Losses in Developing Countries : Hydro-Meteorological Services, Early Warning, and Evacuation

Hallegatte, Stéphane
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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27.180476%
In Europe, it can be estimated that hydro-meteorological information and early warning systems save several hundreds of lives per year, avoid between 460 million and 2.7 billion Euros of disaster asset losses per year, and produce between 3.4 and 34 billion of additional benefits per year through the optimization of economic production in weather-sensitive sectors (agriculture, energy, etc.). The potential for similar benefits in the developing world is not only proportional to population, but also to increased hazard risk due to climate and geography, as well as increased exposure to weather due to the state of infrastructure. This analysis estimates that the potential benefits from upgrading to developed-country standards the hydro-meteorological information production and early warning capacity in all developing countries include: (i) between 300 million and 2 billion USD per year of avoided asset losses due to natural disasters; (ii) an average of 23,000 saved lives per year, which is valued between 700 million and 3.5 billion USD per year using the Copenhagen Consensus guidelines; and (iii) between 3 and 30 billion USD per year of additional economic benefits. The total benefits would reach between 4 and 36 billion USD per year. Because some of the most expensive components of early warning systems have already been built (e.g....

The Financial and Fiscal Impacts

Sato, Motohiro; Boudreau, Laura
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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37.099172%
The Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) occurred against the backdrop of a struggling economy and public finance system under stress, implying an exceptional fiscal cost and imposing a fiscal management challenge to the Government of Japan (GoJ). In response, the government committed to a full-scale national initiative that has evinced its ability to quickly mobilize short- term liquidity but leaves in question its reliance on debt issuance and taxation measures to finance longer-term reconstruction. This note examines the fiscal costs of the event, the financial measures taken by the GoJ to fund these expenses, and the fiscal implications of these actions. Lessons learned and recommendations for developing countries are distilled from this discussion. In the aftermath of the event, the GoJ announced a full-scale national response in which the government would support: 1) rebuilding disaster-resilient regions, 2) restoring the livelihoods of the disaster-affected population, and 3) reviving the local economy and industry. To finance this approach...

A Review of Institutional Arrangements for Road Asset Management : Lessons for the Developing World

Queiroz, Cesar; Kerali, Henry
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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The type of institutional arrangement for managing roads adopted by a country depends on the objectives and performance that it sets for its road networks. This paper reviews such arrangements for selected countries; China, Brazil, Slovenia, New Zealand, United Kingdom, and the Slovak Republic. These countries have adopted different approaches in several dimensions, such as decentralization, sources of financing, management structure, and modal responsibility. This paper reviews main factors affecting the efficiency of road agencies and describes the steps taken in creating a new institution, or transforming an existing one, and assesses the effort required to achieve such results. In all countries reviewed, the ministry responsible for the transport sector remains the authority responsible for the overall transport policy and for putting in place checks and balances for good governance and management of fiscal risk. The main aspects of institutional reforms that can contribute to increase the efficiency of road and transport agencies include: improved institutional structures...

Building Capacity : Experiences from Post-Disaster Aceh and Nias

MDF-JRF Secretariat
Fonte: World Bank, Jakarta Publicador: World Bank, Jakarta
Português
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27.415562%
The Multi Donor Fund for Aceh and Nias (MDF) and the Java Reconstruction Fund (JRF) have played significant roles in the remarkable recovery of Aceh, Nias and Java, following some of the worst disasters in Indonesia in recent years. The MDF and the JRF, which is patterned after it, are each considered a highly successful model for post-disaster reconstruction. This paper discusses the value of a phased approach to post-disaster reconstruction as a successful means to manage short-term expectations while delivering long-lasting, results of high quality. The natural disasters of late 2004 and early 2005 left a trail of human loss and destruction in Aceh and Nias. In such a scenario, capacity building efforts related to individual and community level investments yielded large returns. Aceh and Nias have emerged from the reconstruction experience in a better position to address these challenges as a result of the capacity building achieved through the recovery process.

Causes and Consequences of Civil Strife : Micro-Level Evidence from Uganda

Deininger, Klaus
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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27.47769%
To bridge the gap between case studies and highly aggregate cross-country analyses of civil unrest, the author uses data from Uganda to explore determinants of civil strife (as contrasted to theft and physical violence) at the community level, as well as the potentially differential impact of these variables on investment and nonagricultural enterprise formation at the household level. He finds that distance from infrastructure (a proxy for scarcity of economic opportunities and government investment), asset inequality (social tension), the presence of cash crops (expropriable wealth), and lower levels of human capital (ability to take advantage of opportunities in the "regular" economy) all increase the propensity for civil strife. Furthermore, civil strife, in marked contrast to violence and theft, reduces investment and nonagricultural enterprise start-ups.

Damage, Loss, and Needs Assessment Guidance Notes : Volume 2. Conducting Damage and Loss Assessments after Disasters

Jovel, Roberto J.; Mudahar, Mohinder
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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27.52561%
This is a guideline for World Bank task team leaders (TTLs) entrusted with the design and execution of assessments to determine disaster impacts as well as post-disaster needs for recovery, reconstruction, and disaster risk reduction or management. Assessments estimate, first, the short-term government interventions required to initiate recovery and second, the financial requirements to achieve overall post-disaster recovery, reconstruction, and disaster risk management or reduction. The end product of the assessment is a comprehensive program of recovery, reconstruction, and risk management that will guide all actions in a developing country following a disaster. The damage and loss assessment (DaLA) methodology uses objective, quantitative information on the value of destroyed assets and temporary production losses to estimate, first, government interventions for the short term and second, post-disaster financing needs. The DaLA method ensures that the affected government, the United Nations and other international and domestic agencies jointly develop properly estimated and prioritized financial requirements and an accompanying formula that identifies all possible financial sources and modalities. In addition...

Damage, Loss, and Needs Assessment Guidance Notes : Volume 3. Estimation of Post-Disaster Needs for Recovery and Reconstruction

Jovel, Roberto J.; Mudahar, Mohinder
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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37.54791%
This is a guideline for World Bank task team leaders (TTLs) entrusted with the design and execution of assessments to determine disaster impacts as well as post-disaster needs for recovery, reconstruction, and disaster risk reduction or management. Assessments estimate, first, the short-term government interventions required to initiate recovery and second, the financial requirements to achieve overall post-disaster recovery, reconstruction, and disaster risk management or reduction. The end product of the assessment is a comprehensive program of recovery, reconstruction, and risk management that will guide all actions in a developing country following a disaster. The damage and loss assessment (DaLA) methodology uses objective, quantitative information on the value of destroyed assets and temporary production losses to estimate, first, government interventions for the short term and second, post-disaster financing needs. The DaLA method ensures that the affected government, the United Nations and other international and domestic agencies jointly develop properly estimated and prioritized financial requirements and an accompanying formula that identifies all possible financial sources and modalities. In addition...

Philippine Economic Update : Pursuing Inclusive Growth through Sustainable Reconstruction and Job Creation

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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37.350662%
Despite typhoon Yolanda and a string of natural disasters throughout 2013, Philippine economic growth accelerated to 7.2 percent in 2013. Higher growth was underpinned by the robust performance of consumption and services, and supported by the expansion of investments and manufacturing. Like other emerging markets, Philippine financial markets experienced large volatilities as investors responded to the tapering of the United States (U.S.) stimulus program. Monetary and fiscal policy remained supportive of growth. Amid the challenging global environment and the impact of typhoon Yolanda, the Philippines are likely to sustain high growth in the medium-term. Risks to growth include a slower global recovery, financial market volatilities following the tapering of the U.S. stimulus program, potential bubbles in the real estate sector, slower post-typhoon reconstruction, and domestic reform lags. The government responded quickly to the typhoon by rolling out immediate humanitarian aid and preparing the reconstruction assistance on Yolanda (RAY)...

Reconstruction and Recovery Planning in the Aftermath of Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda)

World Bank Group
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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This report summarizes the just-in-time advice provided by the World Bank to the government of the Philippines (GoP) immediately after Typhoon Haiyan. The Bank helped the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) develop the Reconstruction Assistance on Yolanda (RAY) plan, providing recommendations and sharing international good practice on key aspects of recovery and reconstruction, including institutional arrangements for recovery implementation, use of remote damage assessment, resilient recovery, and reconstruction of housing, buildings, roads, and other infrastructure. The report is divided into six chapters: 1. Rapid Damage Assessments: Using Remote Sensing Technologies and Risk Information to Help Determine Preliminary Reconstruction Needs 2. Buildings and Infrastructure: Good Practices for Resilient Reconstruction 3. Housing: Lessons Learned from Large-Scale Housing Reconstruction Programs 4. Building Back Better: Restoring Key Sectors, Local Economy, and Livelihoods 5. Roads and Bridges: Enabling Operational Continuity of Lifelines for Evacuation and Post - Disaster Response 6. Institutional Structures: Good Practices and Options for Effective Planning and Implementation of Reconstruction and Recovery. International experience shared through the engagement includes lessons learned from community driven reconstruction in Indonesia and Pakistan; shelter and housing recovery in Haiti; emergency reconstruction in Turkey; resilient infrastructure and hurricane contingency planning in Florida; resilient reconstruction of buildings in California...

Road Management Policy

Pinard, Michael Ian
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Português
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27.751965%
Road transport is the most pervasive of all transport modes in Africa and is central to the socioeconomic growth and development of all countries in the region. For it to be effective as a catalyst for development, road provision must be institutionally, economically, financially, socially, and environmentally sustainable. The main objective of the present document is to analyze the commercialized road management (CRM) and publicly available specification (PAS) evaluation approaches for assessing road agency performance in road asset management. The document also considers how the two approaches can be amalgamated to enhance the evaluation of roads agency performance in terms of key benchmarks for good road asset management practice. Finally, the document reflects on indicators that can be incorporated in an appropriate asset management evaluation framework to: (1) measure the progress being made towards commercialization of road administrations; and (2) monitor the performance of roads agencies in terms of the efficiency and effectiveness with which they undertake their responsibilities in the road sub-sector. The report is structured as follows: section one presents the background to the working paper...

Fiscal Disaster Risk Assessment Options for Consideration

World Bank Group; Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Relatório
Português
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Pakistan is vulnerable to a number of adverse natural events and has experienced a wide range of disasters over the past 40 years, including floods, earthquakes, droughts, cyclones, and tsunamis. The World Bank is supporting the Government of Pakistan (GoP) in building capacity in the area of disaster risk management (DRM) in order to build resilience from both humanitarian and fiscal shocks associated with natural disasters. The World Bank is providing technical assistance to the GoP for the development of a national disaster risk financing strategy. This non-lending technical assistance aims to: (i) assess the fiscal exposure of the GoP to natural disasters; (ii) present options for the development of a national strategy to improve financial response capacity for natural disasters; and (iii) promote property catastrophe risk insurance for both public and private dwellings. Disaster risk financing and insurance (DRFI) is one of the five pillars in the proactive and strategic framework for DRM promoted by the World Bank. The World Bank has been promoting a proactive and strategic framework for DRM based on five pillars: (i) risk identification; (ii) risk reduction; (iii) preparedness; (iv) financial protection; and (v) resilient recovery. Chapter one is introduction. Chapter two presents an overview of the budget processes for the financing of natural disaster losses during each of the three post-disaster phases. Chapter three provides a preliminary financial disaster risk assessment for Pakistan...

The Indirect Cost of Natural Disasters and an Economic Definition of Macroeconomic Resilience

Hallegatte, Stephane
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
27.350662%
The welfare impact of a disaster does not depend only on the physical characteristics of the event or its direct impacts in terms of lost lives and assets. Depending on the ability of the economy to cope, recover, and reconstruct, the reconstruction will be more or less difficult, and the welfare effects smaller or larger. This ability, which can be referred to as the macroeconomic resilience of the economy to natural disasters, is an important parameter to estimate the overall vulnerability of a population. Here, resilience is decomposed into two components: instantaneous resilience, which is the ability to limit the magnitude of the immediate loss of income for a given amount of capital losses, and dynamic resilience, which is the ability to reconstruct and recover quickly. The paper proposes a rule of thumb to estimate macroeconomic resilience, based on the interest rate (a higher interest rate decreases resilience and increases welfare losses), the reconstruction duration (a longer reconstruction duration increases welfare losses)...

Investing in Habope; Financial Assessment of Community-Based Small Investments in Sierra Leone

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Working Paper; Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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27.47769%
In countries ravaged by a history of civil war and genocide, the overarching goal for local government and international donors alike is to promote social cohesion, stability and community reconstruction. In Sierra Leone, reconstruction programs emphasize a decentralized approach to: (i) rapidly build market institutions; (ii) enhance community decision making; and (iii) strengthen intra and inter-community tolerance and benefit sharing. This study addresses a program to provide small grants to some of the poorest communities in Sierra Leone. The program builds on the success of relevant micro financing initiatives. However, compared to traditional loans to small enterprises, which are generally available in urban and peri-urban areas where micro financing institutions are accessible, socially motivated grants to reach the poorest households are used. This report presents the findings of financial assessments funded by the Public Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility (PPIAF) of the World Bank. The assessments cover two of the poorest districts in northern Sierra Leone under the Habope project. The project...

Cultural Assets in Support of Transition in the Europe and Central Asia Region : An Operational Perspective

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper
Português
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27.47769%
The purpose ofthis report is to provide guidance to the staff of the World Bank's Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Region with respect to mobilizing cultural assets to support socioeconomic development in our country and regional work programs. To this end it seeks to demonstrate how and when it makes sense for us to get involved in activities related to cultural asset mobilization. Equally important, it also indicates how and when we should leave cultural heritage activities to others. In particular, this report addresses the following questions: • What do we mean by integrating culture and cultural assets into our work? • Why may cultural assets be of importance for a development institution like the World Bank? • What is particular about the cultural assets of the ECA Region? • What lessons can be drawn from ECA's experience with interventions focused on cultural assets to date? • How should ECA staff address issues of cultural assets in the future?

IFC Annual Report 2009 : Creating Opportunity Where It's Needed Most, Volume 2. Financials, Projects, and Portfolio

International Finance Corporation
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: World Bank Annual Report
Português
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27.688245%
International Finance Corporation (IFC) is an international organization, established in 1956, to further economic growth in its developing member countries by promoting private sector development. IFC's principal investment products are loans and equity investments, with smaller debt securities and guarantee portfolios. IFC also plays a catalytic role in mobilizing additional funding from other investors and lenders, either through co financing or through loan participations, underwritings, and guarantees. In addition to project finance, corporate lending and resource mobilization, IFC offers an array of financial products and advisory services to private businesses in the developing world to increase their chances of success. It also advises governments on how to create an environment hospitable to the growth of private enterprise and foreign investment. IFC raises virtually all of the funds for its lending activities through the issuance of debt obligations in the international capital markets, while maintaining a small borrowing window with International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD). The management discussion and analysis contains forward looking statements which may be identified by such terms as 'anticipates...

East Timor Public Administration : Public Expenditure Management and Accountability Note

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Financial Accountability Assessment; Economic & Sector Work
Português
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This study focuses on the implications of East Timor's transitions from United Nations administration to Independence, from reconstruction to development and from aid dependence to fiscal independence for public expenditure policy and management. Following an assessment of the existing systems and their constraints, it makes recommendations for improvements in the public expenditure management system as a tool for achieving: 1) Macro-Economic Stability and Growth, by delivering a sustainable and productive application of resources; 2) Poverty Reduction, by allocating resources to programs that benefit and meet the needs of the poor; 3) Value-for-Money in the application of public funds, by focusing on economy, efficiency and effectiveness in public spending; 4) Good Governance, by ensuring transparency in decision-making and expenditure management, and accountability within the public sector, to the legislature and ultimately to the public. 2. The note is intended first as a contribution to the Government's on-going reform strategy. Summary recommendations are presented at the end of this report. The note is also intended as a contribution to independent assessments of the Government's financial management system undertaken by external partners. Six Chapters...

Economic Resilience : Definition and Measurement

Hallegatte, Stephane
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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27.500762%
The welfare impact of a disaster does not only depend on the physical characteristics of the event or its direct impacts in terms of lost lives and assets. Welfare impacts also depend on the ability of the economy to cope, recover, and reconstruct and therefore to minimize aggregate consumption losses. This ability can be referred to as the macroeconomic resilience to natural disasters. Macroeconomic resilience has two components: instantaneous resilience, which is the ability to limit the magnitude of immediate production losses for a given amount of asset losses, and dynamic resilience, which is the ability to reconstruct and recover. Welfare impacts also depend on micro-economic resilience, which depends on the distribution of losses; on households' vulnerability, such as their pre-disaster income and ability to smooth shocks over time with savings, borrowing, and insurance, and on the social protection system, or the mechanisms for sharing risks across the population. The (economic) welfare disaster risk in a country can be reduced by reducing the exposure or vulnerability of people and assets (reducing asset losses)...