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Bank Deleveraging : Causes, Channels, and Consequences for Emerging Market and Developing Countries

Feyen, Erik; Kibuuka, Katie; Ötker-Robe, İnci
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.38%
Just before the 2008-09 global financial crisis, policymakers were concerned about the rapid growth of bank credit, particularly in Europe; now worry centers on a potential global credit crunch led by European banking institutions. Overall, credit conditions across Europe deteriorated markedly in late 2011. Spillover effects are being felt around the globe and imply significant channels through which deleveraging could have disruptive consequences for credit conditions in emerging markets, particularly in emerging Europe. Significant liquidity support provided by the European Central Bank was a "game changer," at least in the short term, as it helped revive markets and limited the risk of disorderly deleveraging. However, the extent, speed, and impact of European bank deleveraging remain highly dependent on the evolution of economic growth and market conditions, which in turn are guided by the ultimate impact of European Central Bank liquidity support, resolution of the sovereign debt crisis within the Euro Area, and the ability of the European rescue fund to provide an effective firewall against contagion.

Foreign Bank Behavior During Financial Crises

Adams-Kane, Jonathon; Caballero, Julian A.; Lim, Jamus Jerome
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.27%
One of the persistent policy problems faced by governments contemplating financial liberalizations is the question of whether to allow foreign banks entry into the domestic economy. This question has become ever more urgent in recent times, due to rapid financial globalization, coupled with the credit contractions experienced as a result of the 2007/08 financial crisis. This paper examines the question of whether opening the financial sector to foreign participation is a good idea for developing countries, using a unique bank-level database of foreign ownership. In particular, the authors examine whether the credit supply of majority foreign-owned financial institutions differ systematically conditional on a crisis event in their home economies. They show that foreign banks that were exposed to crises in their home countries exhibit changes in lending patterns that are lower by between 13 and 42 percent than their non-crisis counterparts.

Financial Policies and the Prevention of Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Mishkin, Frederic S.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.46%
The author defines a financial crisis as a disruption in financial markets in which adverse selection and moral hazard problems become much worse, so that financial markets are unable to efficiently channel funds to those who have the most productive investment opportunities. As financial markets become unable to function efficiently, economic activity sharply contracts. Factors that promote financial crises include, mainly, a deterioration in financial sector balance sheets, increases in interest rates and in uncertainty, and deterioration in nonfinancial balance sheets because of changes in asset prices. Financial policies in 12 areas could help make financial crises less likely in emerging market economies, says the author. He discusses: Prudential supervision. Accounting and disclosure requirements. Legal and judicial systems. Market-based discipline. Entry of foreign banks. Capital controls. Reduction of the role of state-owned financial institutions. Restrictions on foreign-dominated debt. The elimination of too-big-to-fail practices in the corporate sector. The proper sequencing of financial liberalization. Monetary policy and price stability. Exchange rate regimes and foreign exchange reserves. If the political will to adopt sound policies in these areas grows in emerging market economies...

Stock Market Responses to Bank Restructuring Policies during the East Asian Crisis

Klingebiel, Daniela; Kroszner, Randy; Laeven, Luc; van Oijen, Pieter
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
76.33%
The East Asian crisis began in Thailand in mid-1997 when an ailing financial sector, a slowdown in exports, and large increases in central bank credit to weak financial institutions, triggered a run on the baht. Then the crisis spread to other countries in the region, as common vulnerabilities, and revaluations of risk in emerging markets, triggered large capital flows. To better understand the impact of different policy responses to financial crises, the authors investigate how stock markets in East Asian countries reacted to the initial policy announcements of bank, and financial restructuring - especially how banking, and non-financial sectors in Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand, fared in response to announcements of different restructuring measures. They find that prices of bank stocks, responded positively to announcements about government guarantees of bank liabilities. Non-financial companies gained in value when guarantees were announced, but their stock prices were negatively affected by announcements favoring public re-capitalization schemes...

Learning from Financial Crises

Lim, Jamus Jerome; Minne, Geoffrey
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.41%
This paper considers the question of whether international banks learn from their previous crisis experiences and reduce their lending to developing countries in the event of a financial crisis. The analysis combines a bank-level dataset of bank activity and ownership with country-level data on the stock of historical crisis events between 1800 and 2005. To circumvent selection and endogeneity concerns, the paper exploits temporal variations in the relative recency of crises as instruments for crisis experience. The results indicate that foreign banks with greater crisis experience reduced their lending significantly more relative to other foreign banks, which can be interpreted as evidence in favor of a learning effect. The findings survive robustness checks that include alternative measures of crisis experience, additional controls, and decompositions into different types of crises. The question of learning is also examined from the perspective of other measures of bank performance.

India Development Update, October 2015; Fiscal Policy for Equitable Growth

Gil Sander, Frederico; Shome, Saurabh; Seth, Smriti; Misra, Jaba
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Report; Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.37%
Indias economy expanded by 7.3 percent in FY14-15 and 7.0 percent in Q1 FY15-16 (y/y). Industrial growth increased and despite government services slowing down, services expanded. Domestic drivers increased, while exports declined. Private consumption growth stayed strong and investments gained momentum. Gross domestic product is expected to increase gradually to 7.5 percent in FY15-16. The positive outlook is dependent upon the implementation of important domestic reforms which include: boosting the balance sheets of the banking sector through a sustainable solution of the debt overhang of primarily power and road infrastructure firms, continuing to improve the ease of doing business and enacting the crucial Goods and Services Tax, and enhancing capacity of state and local governments to deliver public services as more resources are devolved from the centre.

Financial Sector Assessment Program Update : Republic of Poland - Credit, Growth, and Financial Stability

World Bank; International Monetary Fund
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP); Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.37%
Two main issues at the interface between economic growth and financial stability are germane to this year's article four consultation and the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) update: the first is why the recent pace of financial catching-up has been so much slower in Poland than in its regional peers, and whether this might hamper Poland's long-term economic prospects; and the second question is how significant the prudential risks associated with rapid growth in housing loans are. The chapter is organized as follows: section II.B discusses credit developments in the last decade and factors driving these developments and assesses implications for economic growth. Section II.C examines reasons for rapid growth of foreign currency lending and implications for financial stability. Section II.D (and appendix) review cross-country experiences with policy responses to rapid credit growth of foreign currency credit and discuss recent policy measures taken in Poland. Section II.E concludes the chapter.

European Bank Deleveraging : Implications for Emerging Market Countries

Feyen, Erik; Kibuuka, Katie; Ötker-Robe, Inci
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.38%
Just before the 2008-9 global financial crises, policy makers were concerned about the rapid growth of bank credit, particularly in Europe; now, worry centers on a potential global credit crunch led by European banking institutions. While recognizing that concrete evidence is limited by significant data gaps and lags, this note discusses the dynamics of European bank deleveraging and possible implications for emerging market economies (EMEs). Overall, the information available as of early 2012 shows a marked deterioration of credit conditions across Europe. Data also suggest that spillover effects are already being felt around the globe and imply significant channels through which deleveraging could have disruptive short and long-term consequences for credit conditions in EMEs, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). However, the significant liquidity support provided by the European Central Bank (ECB) since December may be a 'game changer,' at least in the short term, because it has helped revive markets and limited the risk of disorderly deleveraging. The extent...

Channels of Transmission of the 2007/09 Global Crisis to International Bank Lending in Developing Countries

Adams-Kane, Jonathon; Jia, Yueqing; Lim, Jamus Jerome
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
86.45%
During a financial crisis, credit provision by international banks may be stymied by three distinct, but related, channels: changes in lending standards as a result of increased economic uncertainty, changes in funding availability from interbank liquidity markets, and changes in solvency due to effects on bank balance sheets. This paper illuminates the manner by which each of these channels independently operated to affect developed-country bank lending in developing countries during the global financial crisis of 2007/09. It quantifies how changes in banks' uncertainty about the value of their asset holdings, access to interbank liquidity, and internal balance sheet considerations altered their supply of credit in the run-up, during, and in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis, both in terms of their relative magnitudes, as well as the sensitivity of these magnitudes to the crisis.

Deposit Insurance Database

Demirguc-Kunt, Asli; Kane, Edward; Laeven, Luc
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.38%
This paper provides a comprehensive, global database of deposit insurance arrangements as of 2013. The authors extend their earlier dataset by including recent adopters of deposit insurance and information on the use of government guarantees on banks' assets and liabilities, including during the recent global financial crisis. They also create a Safety Net Index capturing the generosity of the deposit insurance scheme and government guarantees on banks' balance sheets. The data show that deposit insurance has become more widespread and more extensive in coverage since the global financial crisis, which also triggered a temporary increase in the government protection of non-deposit liabilities and bank assets. In most cases, these guarantees have since been formally removed but coverage of deposit insurance remains above pre-crisis levels, raising concerns about implicit coverage and moral hazard going forward.