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Debt Overhang in Emerging Europe?

Brown, Martin; Lane, Philip R.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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56.48%
This paper assesses the extent to which debt overhang poses a constraint to economic activity in Emerging Europe, as the region emerges from the recent financial and economic crisis. At the macroeconomic level, it finds that the external imbalance problem for Emerging Europe has been in most cases more one of flows (high current account deficits in the pre-crisis years) rather than large stocks of external debt. A high reliance on equity funding means that net external debt is far lower than net external liabilities. Domestic balance sheets have expanded quite rapidly but sector liabilities remain relatively low compared with advanced economies. With the important exception of Hungary, public debt levels also remain relatively low in Emerging Europe. At the microeconomic level, the potential for debt overhang in the corporate sector is limited to a few countries: Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Slovenia. Due to the low incidence of household debt, hardly any country, except Estonia, seems to face a threat of debt overhang in the household sector. The strong increase in non-performing loans compared with pre-crisis bank profitability suggests that debt overhang in the banking sector is a threat in Ukraine...

Global Development Finance 2009 : Charting a Global Recovery, Volume 1. Review, Analysis, and Outlook

World Bank
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.36%
This report is comprised of two volumes. Global Development Finance (GDF) 2009 volume one provides analysis of key trends and prospects, including coverage of the role of international banking in developing countries. Volume two provides summary and country tables and contains statistical tables on the external debt of the 128 countries that report public and publicly guaranteed debt under the Debtor Reporting System (DRS). It also includes tables of selected debt and resource flow statistics for individual reporting countries as well as summary tables for regional and income groups. It is the culmination of a year-long process that requires extensive cooperation from people and organizations around the globe-national central banks, ministries of finance, major multilateral organizations, and many departments of the World Bank.

Global Development Finance 2009 : Charting a Global Recovery, Volume 2. Summary and Country Tables

World Bank
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.36%
This report is comprised of two volumes. Global Development Finance (GDF) 2009 volume one provides analysis of key trends and prospects, including coverage of the role of international banking in developing countries. Volume two provides summary and country tables and contains statistical tables on the external debt of the 128 countries that report public and publicly guaranteed debt under the Debtor Reporting System (DRS). It also includes tables of selected debt and resource flow statistics for individual reporting countries as well as summary tables for regional and income groups. It is the culmination of a year-long process that requires extensive cooperation from people and organizations around the globe-national central banks, ministries of finance, major multilateral organizations, and many departments of the World Bank.

Bank Deleveraging : Causes, Channels, and Consequences for Emerging Market and Developing Countries

Feyen, Erik; Kibuuka, Katie; Ötker-Robe, İnci
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.38%
Just before the 2008-09 global financial crisis, policymakers were concerned about the rapid growth of bank credit, particularly in Europe; now worry centers on a potential global credit crunch led by European banking institutions. Overall, credit conditions across Europe deteriorated markedly in late 2011. Spillover effects are being felt around the globe and imply significant channels through which deleveraging could have disruptive consequences for credit conditions in emerging markets, particularly in emerging Europe. Significant liquidity support provided by the European Central Bank was a "game changer," at least in the short term, as it helped revive markets and limited the risk of disorderly deleveraging. However, the extent, speed, and impact of European bank deleveraging remain highly dependent on the evolution of economic growth and market conditions, which in turn are guided by the ultimate impact of European Central Bank liquidity support, resolution of the sovereign debt crisis within the Euro Area, and the ability of the European rescue fund to provide an effective firewall against contagion.

Foreign Bank Behavior During Financial Crises

Adams-Kane, Jonathon; Caballero, Julian A.; Lim, Jamus Jerome
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.27%
One of the persistent policy problems faced by governments contemplating financial liberalizations is the question of whether to allow foreign banks entry into the domestic economy. This question has become ever more urgent in recent times, due to rapid financial globalization, coupled with the credit contractions experienced as a result of the 2007/08 financial crisis. This paper examines the question of whether opening the financial sector to foreign participation is a good idea for developing countries, using a unique bank-level database of foreign ownership. In particular, the authors examine whether the credit supply of majority foreign-owned financial institutions differ systematically conditional on a crisis event in their home economies. They show that foreign banks that were exposed to crises in their home countries exhibit changes in lending patterns that are lower by between 13 and 42 percent than their non-crisis counterparts.

Financial Policies and the Prevention of Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Mishkin, Frederic S.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.46%
The author defines a financial crisis as a disruption in financial markets in which adverse selection and moral hazard problems become much worse, so that financial markets are unable to efficiently channel funds to those who have the most productive investment opportunities. As financial markets become unable to function efficiently, economic activity sharply contracts. Factors that promote financial crises include, mainly, a deterioration in financial sector balance sheets, increases in interest rates and in uncertainty, and deterioration in nonfinancial balance sheets because of changes in asset prices. Financial policies in 12 areas could help make financial crises less likely in emerging market economies, says the author. He discusses: Prudential supervision. Accounting and disclosure requirements. Legal and judicial systems. Market-based discipline. Entry of foreign banks. Capital controls. Reduction of the role of state-owned financial institutions. Restrictions on foreign-dominated debt. The elimination of too-big-to-fail practices in the corporate sector. The proper sequencing of financial liberalization. Monetary policy and price stability. Exchange rate regimes and foreign exchange reserves. If the political will to adopt sound policies in these areas grows in emerging market economies...

Stock Market Responses to Bank Restructuring Policies during the East Asian Crisis

Klingebiel, Daniela; Kroszner, Randy; Laeven, Luc; van Oijen, Pieter
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
76.33%
The East Asian crisis began in Thailand in mid-1997 when an ailing financial sector, a slowdown in exports, and large increases in central bank credit to weak financial institutions, triggered a run on the baht. Then the crisis spread to other countries in the region, as common vulnerabilities, and revaluations of risk in emerging markets, triggered large capital flows. To better understand the impact of different policy responses to financial crises, the authors investigate how stock markets in East Asian countries reacted to the initial policy announcements of bank, and financial restructuring - especially how banking, and non-financial sectors in Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand, fared in response to announcements of different restructuring measures. They find that prices of bank stocks, responded positively to announcements about government guarantees of bank liabilities. Non-financial companies gained in value when guarantees were announced, but their stock prices were negatively affected by announcements favoring public re-capitalization schemes...

Learning from Financial Crises

Lim, Jamus Jerome; Minne, Geoffrey
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.41%
This paper considers the question of whether international banks learn from their previous crisis experiences and reduce their lending to developing countries in the event of a financial crisis. The analysis combines a bank-level dataset of bank activity and ownership with country-level data on the stock of historical crisis events between 1800 and 2005. To circumvent selection and endogeneity concerns, the paper exploits temporal variations in the relative recency of crises as instruments for crisis experience. The results indicate that foreign banks with greater crisis experience reduced their lending significantly more relative to other foreign banks, which can be interpreted as evidence in favor of a learning effect. The findings survive robustness checks that include alternative measures of crisis experience, additional controls, and decompositions into different types of crises. The question of learning is also examined from the perspective of other measures of bank performance.

Global Economic Prospects : Financial Markets Outlook, June 2014

Ju Kim, Eung; Stocker, Marc
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
76.4%
External financing conditions for developing countries have been remarkably favorable in recent months, reflecting expectations of a more drawn-out period of monetary policy accommodation in high-income countries and some narrowing of external vulnerabilities. Additional easing by the European Central Bank, combined with prospects of modest growth and stable inflation in the United States ( Goldilocks recovery ), helped pull down bond yields and volatility worldwide. These benign conditions currently provide support to capital inflows and activity across developing countries, but could at the same time increase the risk of greater and potentially more abrupt market adjustments ahead. Despite some reduction of current account deficits in several developing countries, many remain vulnerable to sudden shifts in investors sentiment and capital outflows. Following a brief period of market turmoil at the start of the year, global financing conditions have eased consider-ably from March to June. Bond spreads for developing countries (i.e. yield difference with 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds) have narrowed...

Moldova Financial Sector Assessment Program; Corporate Governance Review of the Moldovan Banking Sector

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Report; Economic & Sector Work :: Financial Sector Assessment Program; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.31%
The banking sector in Moldova is in the midst of structural changes with worrisome corporate governance issues at the core. Corporate governance is at the center of a stable and profitable banking sector which is essential to support economic growth and productivity. However, the banking system in Moldova suffers from critical governance weaknesses which the National Bank of Moldova (NBM) has been unable to effectively address. The illicit schemes used to gain control of the majority of the banking sector’s assets have involved raider attacks by unidentified individuals whose subsequent, de facto, related party transactions have caused the deterioration of bank balance sheets. The recent changes in controlling ownership have resulted in nontransparent appointments of board members and Chief Executive Officers (CEOs). This has led to substantial blurring of the roles and responsibilities of ownership, oversight (board), and management, resulting in no clear accountability. The legal and institutional corporate governance framework in Moldova is weak. Sound corporate governance is first and foremost dependent upon the motivations of owners and the resultant business culture they instill through their selection and appointment of board members. In Moldova...

India Development Update, October 2015; Fiscal Policy for Equitable Growth

Gil Sander, Frederico; Shome, Saurabh; Seth, Smriti; Misra, Jaba
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Report; Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.37%
Indias economy expanded by 7.3 percent in FY14-15 and 7.0 percent in Q1 FY15-16 (y/y). Industrial growth increased and despite government services slowing down, services expanded. Domestic drivers increased, while exports declined. Private consumption growth stayed strong and investments gained momentum. Gross domestic product is expected to increase gradually to 7.5 percent in FY15-16. The positive outlook is dependent upon the implementation of important domestic reforms which include: boosting the balance sheets of the banking sector through a sustainable solution of the debt overhang of primarily power and road infrastructure firms, continuing to improve the ease of doing business and enacting the crucial Goods and Services Tax, and enhancing capacity of state and local governments to deliver public services as more resources are devolved from the centre.

Pakistan : Financial Sector Assessment

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP); Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.34%
This report summarizes the main findings and policy recommendations within the context of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). Considerable progress has been made in macroeconomic stabilization. Real GDP growth has progressively strengthened, inflation has been subdued, and the overall fiscal deficit and public debt, brought down markedly. However, while macroeconomic stabilization has helped limit vulnerabilities, and improve performance in the financial sector, the outlook remains subject to a number of risks, conducive to future credit quality problems. In addition, a widely anticipated rise in interest rates, and tighter liquidity conditions could adversely impact banks' balance sheets. Finally, a change in the domestic or international political environment, could lead to a drying of remittances, which have been unusually high in recent years. Moreover, to consolidate recent structural reforms and protect the system from future policy reversals, the process of privatization and legal reforms needs to continue. The reform process is not equally advanced across all segments of the financial sector. Insurance penetration is very low relative to other countries at Pakistan's income level, reflecting a number of factors...

Indonesia Economic Quarterly, March 2013 : Pressures Mounting; Perkembangan triwulanan perekonomian Indonesia : tekanan meningkat

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.41%
Indonesia's economy continued to grow at a steady pace in the final quarter of 2012, taking full-year GDP growth to 6.2 percent. This was only a modest reduction from the 6.5 percent growth recorded in 2011, a resilient performance considering the weak global environment and unsettled financial market conditions which prevailed for much of the year. Looking ahead, Indonesia should be able to maintain a solid pace of growth, but there is no room for complacency, as a number of pressures are mounting which could move the economy off this trajectory. Global economic uncertainties remain elevated, Indonesia s investment growth has moderated and, as highlighted in the December 2012 IEQ, the quality of domestic policies is increasingly in focus, particularly in the run-up to the 2014 elections. Even if growth of 6.0 to 6.5 percent is maintained, there is a risk that, without more progress on policy reform and implementation, the opportunity could be missed to boost growth at a time when the economy is benefiting from a growing labor force and the agglomeration effects of urbanization. Future appointments to key economic policy roles...

Financial Sector Assessment Program Update : Republic of Poland - Credit, Growth, and Financial Stability

World Bank; International Monetary Fund
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP); Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.37%
Two main issues at the interface between economic growth and financial stability are germane to this year's article four consultation and the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) update: the first is why the recent pace of financial catching-up has been so much slower in Poland than in its regional peers, and whether this might hamper Poland's long-term economic prospects; and the second question is how significant the prudential risks associated with rapid growth in housing loans are. The chapter is organized as follows: section II.B discusses credit developments in the last decade and factors driving these developments and assesses implications for economic growth. Section II.C examines reasons for rapid growth of foreign currency lending and implications for financial stability. Section II.D (and appendix) review cross-country experiences with policy responses to rapid credit growth of foreign currency credit and discuss recent policy measures taken in Poland. Section II.E concludes the chapter.

European Bank Deleveraging : Implications for Emerging Market Countries

Feyen, Erik; Kibuuka, Katie; Ötker-Robe, Inci
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.38%
Just before the 2008-9 global financial crises, policy makers were concerned about the rapid growth of bank credit, particularly in Europe; now, worry centers on a potential global credit crunch led by European banking institutions. While recognizing that concrete evidence is limited by significant data gaps and lags, this note discusses the dynamics of European bank deleveraging and possible implications for emerging market economies (EMEs). Overall, the information available as of early 2012 shows a marked deterioration of credit conditions across Europe. Data also suggest that spillover effects are already being felt around the globe and imply significant channels through which deleveraging could have disruptive short and long-term consequences for credit conditions in EMEs, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). However, the significant liquidity support provided by the European Central Bank (ECB) since December may be a 'game changer,' at least in the short term, because it has helped revive markets and limited the risk of disorderly deleveraging. The extent...

Financial Sector Assessment : Poland

World Bank; International Monetary Fund
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP); Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.34%
Diversifying Poland's financial system to meet new demands while preserving its resilience and stability is the key task ahead for financial policymakers. Over the past decade, the financial system has grown rapidly and risks have been well managed along the way. To maintain this track record and supply the financial services needed to support the economy's growth, it will be important to develop nonbank financial intermediation, prepare for possible further consolidation and exit of financial institutions, especially cooperatives, credit unions (SKOKs), and small banks, and promote a competitive banking system, relying less on foreign funding. While these developments will be largely market driven, they need to be supported by enabling regulatory reform and the modernization of the financial oversight framework: supervision focused on risk management, including an independent systemic risk perspective, strong safety nets, and state-of-the-art resolution tools will be indispensable. A joint IMF-World Bank mission visited Poland from February 19 - March 6...

Channels of Transmission of the 2007/09 Global Crisis to International Bank Lending in Developing Countries

Adams-Kane, Jonathon; Jia, Yueqing; Lim, Jamus Jerome
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
86.45%
During a financial crisis, credit provision by international banks may be stymied by three distinct, but related, channels: changes in lending standards as a result of increased economic uncertainty, changes in funding availability from interbank liquidity markets, and changes in solvency due to effects on bank balance sheets. This paper illuminates the manner by which each of these channels independently operated to affect developed-country bank lending in developing countries during the global financial crisis of 2007/09. It quantifies how changes in banks' uncertainty about the value of their asset holdings, access to interbank liquidity, and internal balance sheet considerations altered their supply of credit in the run-up, during, and in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis, both in terms of their relative magnitudes, as well as the sensitivity of these magnitudes to the crisis.

Foreign Bank Subsidiaries' Default Risk During the Global Crisis : What Factors Help Insulate Affiliates from Their Parents?

Anginer, Deniz; Cerutti, Eugenio; Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.22%
This paper examines the association between the default risk of foreign bank subsidiaries and their parents during the global financial crisis, with the purpose of understanding what factors can help insulate affiliates from their parents. The paper finds evidence of a significant positive correlation between parent banks' and foreign subsidiaries' default risk. This correlation is lower for subsidiaries that have higher capital, retail deposit funding, and profitability ratios and that are more independently managed from their parents. Host country regulations also influence the extent to which shocks to the parents affect the subsidiaries' default risk. In particular, the correlation between the default risk of the subsidiary and the parent is lower for subsidiaries operating in countries that impose higher capital, reserve, provisioning, and disclosure requirements and tougher restrictions on bank activities.

Indonesia Economic Quarterly FY14 : Compilation of the July 2013, October 2013, December 2013 and March 2014 Indonesia Economic Quarterly Reports

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work; Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.38%
The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main aims. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia's economy, and places these in a longer term and global context. Based on these developments and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly updates the outlook for Indonesia's economy and social welfare. Second, the IEQ provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of Indonesia's medium-term development challenges. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesia's evolving economy. Indonesia's fiscal and monetary policy settings will continue to play a key role in facilitating the adjustments now taking place and in minimizing associated risks. There are, however, trade-offs between the objectives of restraining inflation, supporting growth and adjusting the current account deficit to the tighter financing environment. Monetary policy faces the challenge of calibrating interest and exchange rates so as to guard against rising inflationary pressures as cost pressures rise (such as from the pass-through of the weaker currency or wage increases) while facilitating improvements in the external balances...

Deposit Insurance Database

Demirguc-Kunt, Asli; Kane, Edward; Laeven, Luc
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.38%
This paper provides a comprehensive, global database of deposit insurance arrangements as of 2013. The authors extend their earlier dataset by including recent adopters of deposit insurance and information on the use of government guarantees on banks' assets and liabilities, including during the recent global financial crisis. They also create a Safety Net Index capturing the generosity of the deposit insurance scheme and government guarantees on banks' balance sheets. The data show that deposit insurance has become more widespread and more extensive in coverage since the global financial crisis, which also triggered a temporary increase in the government protection of non-deposit liabilities and bank assets. In most cases, these guarantees have since been formally removed but coverage of deposit insurance remains above pre-crisis levels, raising concerns about implicit coverage and moral hazard going forward.