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Patterns of Long Term Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Arbache, Jorge Saba; Page, John
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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56.48%
Using the most recent purchasing power parity data for 44 sub-Saharan African countries, this paper examines the characteristics of long run growth in Africa between 1975 and 2005. The authors investigate the following issues: cross-country income structure, income convergence, the country level distribution of income, growth and income persistence, and formation of convergence clubs.

A Normal Relationship? Poverty, Growth, and Inequality

Lopez, J. Humberto; Servén, Luis
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.51%
Using a large cross-country income distribution dataset spanning close to 800 country-year observations from industrial and developing countries, the authors show that the size distribution of per capita income is well approximated empirically by a lognormal density. The 0 hypothesis that per capita income follows a lognormal distribution cannot be rejected-although the same hypothesis is unambiguously rejected when applied to per capita consumption. The authors show that lognormality of per capita income has important implications for the relative roles of income growth and inequality changes in poverty reduction. When poverty reduction is the overriding policy objective, poorer and relatively equal countries may be willing to tolerate modest increases in income inequality in exchange for faster growth-more so than richer and highly unequal countries.

Measuring the Pro-Poorness of Income Growth within an Elasticity Framework

Essama-Nssah, B.; Lambert, Peter J.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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66.31%
Poverty reduction has become a fundamental objective of development, and therefore a metric for assessing the effectiveness of various interventions. Economic growth can be a powerful instrument of income poverty reduction. This creates a need for meaningful ways of assessing the poverty impact of growth. This paper follows the elasticity approach to propose a measure of pro-poorness defined as a weighted average of the deviation of a growth pattern from the benchmark case. The measure can help assess pro-poorness both in terms of aggregate poverty measures, which are members of the additively separable class, and at percentiles. It also lends itself to a decomposition procedure, whereby the overall pattern of income growth can be unbundled, and the contributions of income components to overall pro-poorness identified. An application to data for Indonesia in the 1990s reveals that the amount of poverty reduction achieved over that period remains far below what would have been achieved under distributional neutrality. This conclusion is robust to the choice of a poverty measure among members of the additively separable class, and can be tracked back to changes in expenditure components.

Middle-Income Growth Traps

Agénor, Pierre-Richard; Canuto, Otaviano
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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66.1%
This paper studies the existence of middle-income growth traps in a two-period overlapping generations model of economic growth with two types of labor and endogenous occupational choices. It also distinguishes between "basic" and "advanced" infrastructure, with the latter promoting design activities, and accounts for a knowledge network externality associated with product diversification. Multiple steady-state equilibria may emerge, one of them taking the form of a low-growth trap characterized by low productivity growth and a misallocation of talent -- defined as a relatively low share of high-ability workers in design activities. Improved access to advanced infrastructure may help escape from that trap. The implications of other public policies, including the protection of property rights and labor market reforms, are also discussed.

Dynamics of Income Inequality and Welfare in Latvia in the Late 1990s

Fofack, Hippolyte; Monga, Celestin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Português
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66.31%
This paper analyzes the dynamics of poverty and income inequality during the recovery phase of the transition that characterized the Republic of Latvia in the late 1990s. Despite a continued rise in income inequality, empirical evidence suggests an improvement in living standards, owing largely to a significant surge in per capita income growth, particularly in urban areas. In a context of rising income inequality and widening urban-rural income and poverty gaps, the benefits of growth were not equally distributed, and poverty persisted in a number of regions (particularly the regions of Latgale and Vitzeme) and among some socioeconomic groups (particularly households deriving their main income from social benefits). In addition to income inequality and asset endowments, poverty appears to be highly correlated with a number of labor market-related variables, particularly unemployment, suggesting that the labor market could be an important transmission channel from growth to poverty. However, though positive...

Reducing Child Malnutrition : How Far Does Income Growth Take Us?

Haddad, Lawrence; Alderman, Harold; Appleton, Simon; Song, Lina; Yohannes, Yisehac
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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66.33%
How rapidly will child malnutrition respond to income growth? This article explores that question using household survey data from 12 countries as well as data on malnutrition rates in a cross-section of countries since the 1970s. Both forms of analysis yield similar results. Increases in income at the household and national levels imply similar rates of reduction in malnutrition. Using these estimates and better than historical income growth rates, the article finds that the millennium development goal of halving the prevalence of underweight children by 2015 is unlikely to be met through income growth alone. What is needed to accelerate reductions in malnutrition is a balanced strategy of income growth and investment in more direct interventions.

Traffic Fatalities and Economic Growth

Kopits, Elizabeth; Cropper, Maureen
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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56.44%
The authors examine the impact of income growth on the death rate due to traffic fatalities, as well as on fatalities per motor vehicle and on the motorization rate (vehicles/population) using panel data from 1963-99 for 88 countries. Specifically, they estimate fixed effects models for fatalities/population, vehicles/population, and fatalities/vehicles and use these models to project traffic fatalities and the stock of motor vehicles to 2020.The relationship between motor vehicle fatality rate and per capita income at first increases with per capita income, reaches a peak, and then declines. This is because at low income levels the rate of increase in motor vehicles outpaces the decline in fatalities per motor vehicle. At higher income levels, the reverse occurs. The income level at which per capita traffic fatalities peaks is approximately $8,600 in 1985 international dollars. This is within the range of income at which other externalities, such as air and water pollution, have been found to peak. Projections of future traffic fatalities suggest that the global road death toll will grow by approximately 66 percent between 2000 and 2020. This number...

The Effect of Aid on Growth : Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment

Galiani, Sebastian; Knack, Stephen; Xu, Lixin Colin; Zou, Ben
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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56.44%
The literature on aid and growth has not found a convincing instrumental variable to identify the causal effects of aid. This paper exploits an instrumental variable based on the fact that since 1987, eligibility for aid from the International Development Association (IDA) has been based partly on whether or not a country is below a certain threshold of per capita income. The paper finds evidence that other donors tend to reinforce rather than compensate for reductions in IDA aid following threshold crossings. Overall, aid as a share of gross national income (GNI) drops about 59 percent on average after countries cross the threshold. Focusing on the 35 countries that have crossed the income threshold from below between 1987 and 2010, a positive, statistically significant, and economically sizable effect of aid on growth is found. A one percentage point increase in the aid to GNI ratio from the sample mean raises annual real per capita growth in gross domestic product by approximately 0.35 percentage points. The analysis shows that the main channel through which aid promotes growth is by increasing physical investment.

Transitioning from Low-Income Growth to High-Income Growth : Is There a Middle Income Trap?

Bulman, David; Eden, Maya; Nguyen, Ha
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Português
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66.44%
Is there a "middle income trap"? Theory suggests that the determinants of growth at low and high income levels may be different. If countries struggle to transition from growth strategies that are effective at low income levels to growth strategies that are effective at high income levels, they may stagnate at some middle income level; this phenomenon can be thought of as a "middle income trap." This paper does not find evidence for (unusual) stagnation at any particular middle income level. However, it does find evidence that the determinants of growth at low and high income levels differ. These findings suggest a mixed conclusion: middle-income countries may need to change growth strategies to transition smoothly to high-income growth strategies, but this can be done smoothly and does not imply the existence of a middle income trap.

Puzzles of Economic Growth

Balcerowicz, Leszek; Rzonca, Andrzej
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.36%
Looking at the economic growth of seemingly similar countries one can find striking differences. Why has Australia gotten so much ahead of New Zealand, in spite of the latter being held up as a paragon of free market reform? How is it possible that Austria, with its persistently oversized state enterprise sector, has managed to (nearly) catch up with Switzerland? How can we account for the differences in economic growth between Estonia and Slovenia, and which of these two countries has been more successful at systemic transformation? Why is Mexico so much poorer than Spain, despite having been wealthier all the way into the 1960s? Why has Venezuela, which in 1950 had a per capita income higher than that of Norway and remains a major exporter of oil, slipped behind Chile? Why is Costa Rica lagging behind Puerto Rico, even though in the 1970s the U.S. territory's fast development slowed to a crawl and is now far below other comparable island economies? Why has 'communist' China outstripped 'capitalist' India? Why has Pakistan's growth lagged behind that of Indonesia...

Zambia - Country Economic Memorandum : Policies for Growth and Diversification, Volume 1. Main Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.09%
In October 1991 Zambia moved to a multiparty democratic system. In the following years, the government implemented a number of policy and structural reforms, liberalizing exchange and interest rates, simplifying the tariff structure, and removing quantitative restrictions on trade, privatizing most state-owned enterprises, and substantially withdrawing from the agriculture sector. Despite these reforms, economic growth has remained lackluster, and poverty and social conditions have worsened. There are however, hopeful signs that increased growth and poverty reduction are within reach in Zambia. The country's economy has long been tied to the copper industry, whose purchasing power has been in decline for decades. But declining copper prices were not the only reasons Zambia's economic performance declined between 1991 and 2002. Excluding the one-time disruption in real sector activity in 1994-95, real GDP grew at an average annual rate of 3 percent during 1991-2002. The report argues that estimates puts its annual long-term growth potential at about 5 percent...

Zambia - Country Economic Memorandum : Policies for Growth and Diversification, Volume 2. Annexes

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.09%
In October 1991 Zambia moved to a multiparty democratic system. In the following years, the government implemented a number of policy and structural reforms, liberalizing exchange and interest rates, simplifying the tariff structure, and removing quantitative restrictions on trade, privatizing most state-owned enterprises, and substantially withdrawing from the agriculture sector. Despite these reforms, economic growth has remained lackluster, and poverty and social conditions have worsened. There are however, hopeful signs that increased growth and poverty reduction are within reach in Zambia. The country's economy has long been tied to the copper industry, whose purchasing power has been in decline for decades. But declining copper prices were not the only reasons Zambia's economic performance declined between 1991 and 2002. Excluding the one-time disruption in real sector activity in 1994-95, real GDP grew at an average annual rate of 3 percent during 1991-2002. The report argues that estimates puts its annual long-term growth potential at about 5 percent...

Reducing Child Malnutrition in Tanzania : Combined Effects of Income Growth and Program Interventions

Alderman, Harold; Hoogeveen, Hans; Rossi, Mariacristina
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.14%
Malnutrition is associated with an inadequate diet, poor health and sanitation services, and insufficient care for young children. A combination of income growth and nutrition interventions are therefore suggested to adequately tackle this issue, yet evidence to support this claim is often not available, especially for African settings. The authors evaluate the joint contribution of income growth and nutrition interventions toward the reduction of malnutrition. Using a four-round panel data set from northwestern Tanzania they estimate the determinants of a child's nutritional status, including household income and the presence of nutrition interventions in the community. The results show that better nutrition is associated with higher income, and that nutrition interventions have a substantial beneficial effect. Policy simulations make clear that if one intends to halve malnutrition rates by 2015 (the Millennium Development Goals objective), income growth will have to be complemented by large-scale program interventions.

Sustaining Economic Welfare : Estimating Changes in Per Capita Wealth

Hamilton, Kirk
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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56.5%
The World Bank's "World Development Indicators 1999" highlights for the first time the "genuine" rate of saving for more than 100 countries around the globe. Genuine saving values the total change in economic assets, thereby providing an indicator of whether an economy is on a sustainable path. The Bank's new estimates of genuine saving broaden the usual national accounts definitions of assets to include human capital, minerals, energy, forest resources, and the stock of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Genuine saving measures the change in total assets rather than the change in per capita assets. Genuine saving data may answer the question, "Did total wealth rise or fall over the acoounting period?" But they do not address the question of whether an economy is sustainable with a growing population. Genuine saving could be positive even though per capita wealth is declining. The author explores the issue of measuring changes in per capita wealth--factoring in both growth in total assets (as measured by genuine saving) and population growth--as a more comprehensive indicator of sustainability. First he develops a theoretical approach to estimating total wealth. Then he presents cross-country estimates of changes in per capita wealth. Based on preliminary estimates...

Benchmarking the Determinants of Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean

Araujo, Jorge Thompson; Brueckner, Markus; Clavijo, Mateo; Vostroknutova, Ekaterina; Wacker, Konstantin M.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: General Economy, Macroeconomics and Growth Study; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.45%
The Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region has seen a decade of remarkable growth and income convergence. Growth has been a key driver for reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity. It has been debated how much of this decade of growth has been driven by policy reforms and how much was due to the favorable external conditions. While external factors were supportive and relevant, the effect of domestic policies was just as relevant for explaining LAC's recent growth performance. The emphasis of domestic policy has shifted from stabilization policies to structural policies. In addition, a benchmarking exercise reveals which policy gaps will lead to the highest potential growth-payoffs for each country and helps identify potential trade-offs. The authors analyze growth in LAC using descriptive statistics and growth econometrics. The authors use these results for explaining the pattern of growth in LAC over the last decade, for looking ahead, and to identify potential policy gaps.

Beyond Commodities; The Growth Challenge of Latin America and the Caribbean

Thompson Araujo, Jorge; Brueckner, Markus; Clavijo, Mateo; Vostroknutova, Ekaterina; Wacker, Konstantin M.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Report; Economic & Sector Work; Economic & Sector Work :: General Economy, Macroeconomics and Growth Study
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.45%
The Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region has seen a decade of remarkable growth and income convergence. Growth has been a key driver for reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity. It has been debated how much of this decade of growth has been driven by policy reforms and how much was due to the favorable external conditions. While external factors were supportive and relevant, the effect of domestic policies was just as relevant for explaining LAC's recent growth performance. The emphasis of domestic policy has shifted from stabilization policies to structural policies. In addition, a benchmarking exercise reveals which policy gaps will lead to the highest potential growth-payoffs for each country and helps identify potential trade-offs. The authors analyze growth in LAC using descriptive statistics and growth econometrics. The authors use these results for explaining the pattern of growth in LAC over the last decade, for looking ahead, and to identify potential policy gaps.

Bangladesh - Towards Accelerated, Inclusive and Sustainable Growth : Opportunities and Challenges, Volume 2. Main Report

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.45%
In Bangladesh, growth needs to accelerate to absorb the burgeoning labor force and continue making dents in poverty. Such acceleration will require sustained growth in exports and remittances. It will also need an increase in investment both public and private. However, growth acceleration alone will not be enough to absorb the labor force. This will need an improvement in employment intensity of growth, and a further improvement in inclusiveness of service delivery. Moreover, to help ensure that growth acceleration is sustained, the ex-ante and ex-post effects of climate change will need to be addressed. Finally, urbanization offers opportunities to accelerate growth, but can also undermine it if not proactively managed. Bangladesh's Gross National Income (GNI) per capita more than tripled in the past two-and-a-half decades, from an average of US$251 in the 1980s to US$784 by 2011. This growth was accompanied by impressive progress in human development. Yet, after 40 years of independence, Bangladesh remains a low-income country with nearly 50 million people still impoverished and its economic growth potential under-exploited. It is therefore important to understand the drivers underpinning Bangladesh's growth process, what enabled the drivers to move Bangladesh forward...

Shared Prosperity : Links to Growth, Inequality and Inequality of Ppportunity

Narayan, Ambar; Saavedra-Chanduvi, Jaime; Tiwari, Sailesh
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.43%
Focusing on the welfare of the less well off as a measure of real societal progress is the fundamental principle underlying the WBG indicator of "shared prosperity", namely income growth of the bottom 40 percent in every country. This paper uses a database assembled by the World Bank Group to investigate some basic characteristics of shared prosperity, particularly its relationship with overall economic growth and inequality. Initial estimates using this dataset of 79 countries show that median income growth of the bottom 40 percent (circa 2005-2010) was 4.2 percent, a high number in comparison to the 3.1 percent per capita income growth of the overall population. In addition, the low and lower-middle income countries appear to be trailing the upper middle and high income countries in boosting shared prosperity. Establishing conceptual links between income growth of the bottom 40 percent, the overall growth rate and reviewing existing evidence on how these relate to inequality, the paper discusses two main ideas. First...

Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century? Income Growth and Food Demand and Supply in China

Fukase, Emiko; Martin, Will
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.28%
This paper uses resource-based cereal equivalent measures to explore the evolution of China's demand and supply for food. Although demand for food calories is probably close to its peak level in China, the ongoing dietary shift to animal-based foods, induced by income growth, is likely to impose considerable pressure on agricultural resources. Estimating the relationship between income growth and food demand with data from a wide range of countries, China's demand growth appears to have been broadly similar to the global trend. On the supply side, output of food depends strongly on the productivity growth associated with income growth and on the country's agricultural land endowment, with China appearing to be an out-performer. The analyses of income-consumption-production dynamics suggest that China's current income level falls in the range where consumption growth outstrips production growth, but that the gap is likely to begin to decline as China's population growth and dietary transition slow down. Continued agricultural productivity growth through further investment in research and development...

Hunting for Leopards : Long Run Country Income Dynamics in Africa

Arbache, Jorge Saba; Page, John
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.5%
This paper examines the country-level dynamics of long-run growth in Africa between 1975 and 2005. The authors examine how growth has affected mobility and the distribution of income among countries. They analyze changes in cross-country income structure and convergence, and look for evidence of the formation of country groups or "clubs." Using a novel method of breaking up the growth histories of African economies into medium-term spells of growth accelerations and declines, the authors investigate whether a group of African "leopards" - the regional equivalent of Asia's "tigers" - is beginning to emerge.