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Using Common Features to Understand the Behavior of Metal-Commodity Prices and Forecast them at Different Horizons

Issler, João Victor; Rodrigues, Claudia; Burjack, Rafael
Fonte: Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV Publicador: Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV
Tipo: Relatório
Português
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The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual horizons. The data to be used consists of metal-commodity prices in a monthly frequency from 1957 to 2012 from the International Financial Statistics of the IMF on individual metal series. We will also employ the (relatively large) list of co- variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009) , which are available for download. Regarding short- and long-run comovement, we will apply the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature to build parsimonious VARs, which possibly entail quasi-structural relationships between different commodity prices and/or between a given commodity price and its potential demand determinants. These parsimonious VARs will be later used as forecasting models to be combined to yield metal-commodity prices optimal forecasts. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, we will use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. With the forecasts of a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large)...

Using Common Features to Understand the Behavior of Metal-Commodity Prices and Forecast them at Different Horizons

Issler, João Victor; Rodrigues, Claudia; Burjack, Rafael
Fonte: Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV Publicador: Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV
Tipo: Relatório
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
68.35286%
The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual frequencies. Data consists of metal-commodity prices at a monthly and quarterly frequencies from 1957 to 2012, extracted from the IFS, and annual data, provided from 1900-2010 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). We also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009). We investigate short- and long-run comovement by applying the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature. One of the main contributions of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts...

Primary Commodity Prices : Co-movements, Common Factors and Fundamentals

Byrne, Joseph P.; Fazio, Giorgio; Fiess, Norbert
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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The behavior of commodities is critical for developing and developed countries alike. This paper contributes to the empirical evidence on the co-movement and determinants of commodity prices. Using nonstationary panel methods, the authors document a statistically significant degree of co-movement due to a common factor. Within a Factor Augmented VAR approach, real interest rate and uncertainty, as postulated by a simple asset pricing model, are both found to be negatively related to this common factor. This evidence is robust to the inclusion of demand and supply shocks, which both positively impact on co-movement of commodity prices.

The Relative Volatility of Commodity Prices : A Reappraisal

Arezki, Rabah; Lederman, Daniel; Zhao, Hongyan
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
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This paper studies the volatility of commodity prices on the basis of a large dataset of monthly prices observed in international trade data from the United States over the period 2002 to 2011. The conventional wisdom in academia and policy circles is that primary commodity prices are more volatile than those of manufactured products, although most of the existing evidence does not actually attempt to measure the volatility of prices of individual goods or commodities. The literature tends to focus on trends in the evolution and volatility of ratios of price indexes composed of multiple commodities and products. This approach can be misleading. Indeed, the evidence presented in this paper suggests that on average prices of individual primary commodities are less volatile than those of individual manufactured goods. However, the challenges of managing terms of trade volatility in developing countries with concentrated export baskets remain.

Placing the 2006/08 Commodity Price Boom into Perspective

Baffes, John; Haniotis, Tassos
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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The 2006-08 commodity price boom was one of the longest and broadest of the post-World War II period. Apart from strong and sustained economic growth, the recent boom was fueled by numerous factors, including low past investment in extractive commodities, weak dollar, fiscal expansion, and lax monetary policy in many countries, and investment fund activity. At the same time, the combination of adverse weather conditions, the diversion of some food commodities to the production of biofuels, and government policies (including export bans and prohibitive taxes) brought global stocks of many food commodities down to levels not seen since the early 1970s. This in turn accelerated the price increases that eventually led to the 2008 rally. The weakening and/or reversal of these factors coupled with the financial crisis that erupted in September 2008 and the subsequent global economic downturn, induced sharp price declines across most commodity sectors. Yet, the main price indices are still twice as high compared to their 2000 real levels...

Are Commodity Prices More Volatile Now? A Long-Run Perspective

Calvo-Gonzalez, Oscar; Shankar, Rashmi; Trezzi, Riccardo
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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Soaring commodity prices in 2007 and 2008 raised concerns that volatility was also rising, which would have implications for welfare and therefore for the design of public policy interventions. The literature focuses on trends in commodity prices rather than their volatility characteristics. This paper contributes by examining commodity price volatility with a newly compiled monthly panel dataset on 45 individual commodity prices from the end of the 18th century until today. The main conclusions are: the timing and number of breaks in volatility vary considerably across individual commodities, cautioning against generalizations based on the use of commodity price indices; the three most significant breaks common to most commodities are the two world wars and the collapse of the Bretton-Woods system; and structural breaks marking increased price volatility are followed by breaks marking declines in volatility so that there is no upward or downward trend in volatility over time.

Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in an Agricultural Economy : The Case of Ethiopia

Loening, Josef L.; Durevall, Dick; Birru, Yohannes A.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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Ethiopia has experienced a historically unprecedented increase in inflation, mainly driven by cereal price inflation, which is among the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using monthly data from the past decade, the authors estimate error correction models to identify the relative importance of several factors contributing to overall inflation and its three major components, cereal prices, food prices, and non-food prices. The main finding is that, in a longer perspective, over three to four years, the main factors that determine domestic food and non-food prices are the exchange rate and international food and goods prices. In the short run, agricultural supply shocks and inflation inertia strongly affect domestic inflation, causing large deviations from long-run price trends. Money supply growth does affect food price inflation in the short run, although the money stock itself does not seem to drive inflation. The results suggest the need for a multi-pronged approach to fight inflation. Forecast scenarios suggest monetary and exchange rate policies need to take into account cereal production...

More on the Energy/Non-Energy Commodity Price Link

Baffes, John
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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This paper examines the energy/non-energy commodity price link, based on a reduced form econometric model and using annual data from 1960 to 2008. The transmission elasticity from energy to the non-energy index is estimated at 0.28. At a more disaggregated level, the fertilizer index exhibited the largest elasticity (0.55), followed by precious metals (0.46), food (0.27), metals and minerals (0.25), and raw materials (0.11). By contrast, only a few price indices responded strongly to inflation, although the trend parameter estimate (often viewed as a proxy for technological progress) is negative for agriculture and positive for metals. A key implication of the pass-through results is that for as long as energy prices remain elevated, most non-energy commodity prices are expected to be high.

Reducing Distortions in International Commodity Markets

Hoekman, Bernard; Martin, Will
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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World commodity markets and particularly the markets for agricultural commodities remain highly distorted despite the wave of liberalization that has swept world trade since the 1980s. Commodity markets are distorted on both the export and the import sides, with serious implications for world prices and their volatility. Very few of the price distortions found in commodity markets can be justified on the grounds of dealing with market failures. Rather, most policies that affect commodity prices are designed to transfer resources to favored groups by raising or lowering prices. Policies may target the level and/or the volatility of prices, and the pursuit of one type of policy objective may have unintended consequences in generating further distortions. Moreover, some commodity markets are characterized by imperfect competition. Where monopolies or oligopolies in trade arise, either because of government regulation or through other barriers to entry, distortions may arise that call for application of antitrust laws and other forms of pro-competitive policy action.

The Price is Not Always Right : On the Impacts of (Commodity) Prices on Households (and Countries)

Lederman, Daniel; Porto, Guido
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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This paper provides an overview of the impact of once-and-for-all changes in commodity prices and other prices on household welfare. It begins with a collection of stylized facts related to commodities based on household survey data from Latin America and Africa. The data uncover strong commodity dependence in both continents: households typically allocate a large fraction of their budget to commodities and they often depend on commodities to earn their income. This income and expenditure dependency suggests sizable impacts and adjustments following commodity-price shocks. The paper explores these effects with a review of the literature. It studies consumption and income responses, labor-market responses, and spillovers across sectors. It ends up providing evidence on the relative magnitudes of various mechanisms through which commodity prices affect household (and national) welfare in developing economies.

Global Economic Prospects : Commodity Markets Outlook, January 2014

Baffes, John; Cosic, Damir
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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With the exception of energy, all the key commodity price indices declined significantly in 2013. Fertilizer prices led the decline, down 17.4 percent from 2012, followed by precious metals (down almost 17 percent), agriculture (-7.2 percent), and metals (-5.5 percent). Crude oil prices (World Bank average), which have been remarkably stable during the past three years, averaged $104/barrel (bbl) during 2013, marginally lower than the $105/bbl average of 2012. Most non-energy commodity prices, notably grains, followed a downward path during 2013. Other risks for agricultural markets are mostly on the downside as well. For example, the risk of trade policies impacting agricultural prices is low as evidenced by the absence of any export restrictions during 2011-13, despite several spikes in prices (notably maize and wheat). Finally, production of biofuels experienced a third year of little (or no) growth, as policy makers increasingly realize that the environmental and energy independence benefits from biofuels may not outweigh the costs.

Global Commodity Markets : Review and Price Forecast

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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A companion to Global Development Finance 2009. The slowing of global growth, which preceded the financial crisis by several months, prompted commodity prices to start falling in mid-2008. The eruption of the full-blown crisis and the rapid drop-off in economic activity since September of that year accelerated this process markedly. Demand for most commodities (notably, in high-income industries and in China) slowed or declined, particularly for oil and metals. By December 2008, crude oil prices had dropped to $41 a barrel, down more than 70 percent from the July peaks, while non-energy prices, including food,had declined by nearly 40 percent. Since December, prices have firmed, with crude oil prices up to $69 on average in June 2009, and prices for foods and metals up 22 and 13 percent, respectively.

Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, October 2015; Low Commodity Prices and Weak Currencies

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Serial; Publications & Research; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
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Against the backdrop of a weakening global economy and volatility in international financial markets, countries of the Europe and Central Asia region (ECA) are transitioning to a new normal that is characterized by low commodity prices, slow trend growth of global trade and less abundant availability of international liquidity. The transition is challenging because the region has not still fully recovered from the after-effects of the global financial crisis and current volatile conditions in international financial markets create headwinds. The eastern part of ECA faces the difficult adjustment to low commodity prices. That adjustment comes with sharp real deprecations, job losses in construction and domestic services, falling asset prices (especially real estate and equity prices), increased fragility in partly dollarized financial sectors, and declining household incomes. However, that adjustment comes also with new opportunities in the tradable sectors. To seize these opportunities policy makers have to embrace the new normal, using flexible exchange rates, absorbing negative side-effects, and facilitating investments in new sectors. In the western part of the region the recovery remains fragile. In Southern European countries...

An Empirical Investigation of the Nexus among Money Balances, Commodity Prices and Consumer Goods’ Prices

Grigoli, Francesco
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
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This paper aims to identify the nexus between the excess of liquidity in the United States and commodity prices over the 1983-2006 period. In particular, it assesses whether commodity prices react more powerfully than consumer goods' prices to changes in real money balances. Within a cointegrated vector autoregressive framework, the author investigates whether consumer prices and commodity prices react to excess liquidity, and if the different price elasticities of supply for goods and commodities allow for differences in the dynamic paths of price adjustment to a liquidity shock. The results show a positive relationship between real money and real commodity prices and provide empirical evidence for a stronger response of commodity prices with respect to consumer goods' prices. This could imply that, if the magnitude of the reaction is due the fact that consumer goods' prices are slower to react, then their long-run value can be predicted with the help of commodity prices. The findings support the view that the latter should be considered as a valid monetary indicator.

Commodity Price Uncertainty in Developing Countries

Dehn, Jan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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Uncertainty about commodity export prices is important to developing countries -- both governments and producers -- that export primary commodities. Commodity export price uncertainty is typically measured as the standard deviation in the terms of trade. There are three problems with this approach: 1) Terms of trade indices are unsuitable as proxies for commodity price movements per se. 2) The shortness of terms of trade time series makes them inappropriate as a base for constructing time-varying uncertainty measures. 3) Simple standard deviation measures ignore the distinction between predictable and unpredictable elements in the price process, so they risk overstating uncertainty. 4) The author examines commodity price uncertainty in developing countries using new data for quarterly aggregate commodity price indices for 113 developing countries for the period 1957-97. Each index is a geometrically weighted index of 57 commodity prices. He constructs six different measures of uncertainty. The uncertainty measures confirm the importance of distinguishing between predictable and unpredictable components in the price process. But there is a positive...

Boom, Bust and Up Again? Evolution, Drivers and Impact of Commodity Prices: Implications for Indonesia; Laporan pengembangan sektor perdagangan - perkembangan, pemicu dan dampak harga komoditas : implikasinya terhadap perekonomian Indonesia

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank, Jakarta Publicador: World Bank, Jakarta
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Foreign Trade, FDI, and Capital Flows Study; Economic & Sector Work
Português
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69.062554%
Indonesia is one of the largest commodity exporters in the world, and given its mineral potential and expected commodity price trends, it could and should expand its leading position. Commodities accounted for one fourth of Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and more than one fifth of total government revenue in 2007. The potential for further commodity growth is considerable. Indonesia is the largest producer of palm oil in the world (export earnings totaled almost US$9 billion in 2007 and employment 3.8 million full-time jobs) and the sector has good growth prospects. It is also one of the countries with the largest mining potential in view of its second-largest copper reserves and third-largest coal and nickel reserves in the world. This report consists of seven chapters. The first six chapters present an examination and an analysis of the factors driving increased commodity prices, price forecasts, economic impact of commodity price increases, effective price stabilization policies, and insights from Indonesia's past growth experience. The final chapter draws on the findings of the previous chapters and suggests a development strategy for Indonesia in the context of high commodity prices. This section summarizes the contents of the chapters and their main findings.

Common dynamics of nonenergy commodity prices and their relation to uncertainty

Sierra Suárez, Lya Paola; Poncela, Pilar; Senra, Eva
Fonte: Taylor & Francis Publicador: Taylor & Francis
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; Artículo; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Formato: application/pdf; 13 p.
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The purpose of this article is to improve the empirical evidence on commodity prices in various dimensions. First, we attempt to identify the extent of comovements in 44 monthly nonenergy commodity price series in order to ascertain whether the increase in comovement is a recent term phenomenon. Second, we attempt to determine the role of uncertainty in determining comovements among nonenergy prices in the short run. We diagnose the overall comovement using a dynamic factor model estimated by principal components. A factor-augmented vector autoregressive approach is used to assess the relationship of fundamentals, financial and uncertainty variables with the comovement in commodity prices. We find a greater synchronization among raw materials since December 2003. Since that date, uncertainty has played an important role in determining short-run fluctuations in nonenergy raw material prices.; The purpose of this article is to improve the empirical evidence on commodity prices in various dimensions. First, we attempt to identify the extent of comovements in 44 monthly nonenergy commodity price series in order to ascertain whether the increase in comovement is a recent term phenomenon. Second, we attempt to determine the role of uncertainty in determining comovements among nonenergy prices in the short run. We diagnose the overall comovement using a dynamic factor model estimated by principal components. A factor-augmented vector autoregressive approach is used to assess the relationship of fundamentals...

The Informational Role of Commodity Prices in Formulating Monetary Policy: A Reexamination

Awokuse, Titus; Yang, Jian
Fonte: Department of Food and Resource Economics Publicador: Department of Food and Resource Economics
Tipo: Staff Paper Formato: 211676 bytes; application/pdf
Português
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68.354375%
This paper reexamines the issue of whether commodity prices provide useful information for formulating monetary policy through the application of recent development in time series methodology developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). We found that commodity prices signals the future direction of the economy.

Modelling the rand and commodity prices: A Granger causality and cointegration analysis

Schaling,Eric; Ndlovu,Xolani; Alagidede,Paul
Fonte: South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences Publicador: South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/01/2014 Português
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58.79516%
This paper examines the 'commodity currency' hypothesis of the Rand, that is, the postulate that the currency moves in line with commodity prices, and analyses the associated causality using nominal data between 1996 and 2010. We address both the short run and long run relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates. We find that while the levels of the series of both assets are difference stationary, they are not cointegrated. Further, we find the two variables are negatively related, with strong and significant causality running from commodity prices to the exchange rate and not vice versa, implying exogeneity in the determination of commodity prices with respect to the nominal exchange rate. The strength of the relationship is significantly weaker than other OECD commodity currencies. We surmise that the relationship is dynamic over time owing to the portfolio-rebalance argument and the Commodity Terms of Trade (CTT) effect and, in the absence of an error correction mechanism, this disconnect may be prolonged. For commodity and currency market participants, this implies that while futures and forward commodity prices may be useful leading indicators of future currency movements, the price risk management strategies may need to be recalibrated over time.

Empirical correlation of mineral commodity prices with exchange-traded mining stock prices

Nangolo,C.; Musingwini,C.
Fonte: Journal of the Southern African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy Publicador: Journal of the Southern African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/07/2011 Português
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Mineral commodity prices comprise one of the key criteria in the selection of mining stocks. We contend that of the three principal elements of mineral commodity prices, spot price, forward price and long-term price, one has a greater impact on the share valuation processes used by investors. This research paper examines the extent to which each of these elements influences the valuation process. The intention is to provide investors in mining stocks with a greater understanding of how fluctuations of commodity prices over time affect the prices of the mining stocks they hold, or intend to sell or buy. Three mineral commodities, gold, silver, and copper, were used as case studies, since market data on these commodities is readily available in the public domain. Nine market indices covering all three mineral commodities were selected. These are based on clearly defined criteria with the intention of eliminating ambiguity and to test for correlation with the three sets of mineral commodity prices. Nine mining companies, which were not the primary drivers of the relevant indices employed in the study, were used to validate the results obtained from the indices in order to avoid duplication of the same correlation during cross-checking. Each commodity price was adjusted for operating costs. For each market index...