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Demanda residencial - adequação da análise de mercado imobiliário - o caso de São Paulo; Housing demand - adequacy of real estate market analysis - in the case of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Meyer, João Fernando Pires
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 14/05/2008 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.26%
O objetivo desta pesquisa é investigar a adequação da Análise de Mercado Imobiliário AMI ao caso do município de São Paulo. Em particular, na análise do chamado mercado econômico de moradias 5 a 10 salários mínimos de renda familiar, segmento que é tido como possuidor de renda superior à necessária para ser enquadrado nos programas oficiais, mas insuficiente para adquirir moradia produzida pelo mercado formal. Como uma política imobiliária urbana poderia criar as condições para que estas famílias pudessem ser atendidas pelo mercado formal, em áreas mais centrais da cidade? Para responder a esta questão é necessário compreender a dinâmica residencial deste mercado econômico, tema em que a pesquisa acadêmica tem sido incipiente. A tese concentrou-se na mensuração da demanda disponível por categorias de renda, que foi cruzada com a oferta de moradias pelo mercado. Os resultados indicam para o município de São Paulo, um parcial ajuste no centro das duas curvas, em 2006, e um descolamento nas pontas, ou seja, há uma importante demanda não atendida para a categoria de renda de 5 a 10 salários mínimos e uma sobre-oferta para rendas superiores a 30 salários mínimos. Em 2007, a melhoria nas condições de crédito aumentou em 30% o valor médio dos imóveis financiados...

Replacing Relative Reinforcing Efficacy with Behavioral Economic Demand Curves

Johnson, Matthew W; Bickel, Warren K
Fonte: Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, Inc. Publicador: Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, Inc.
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em /01/2006 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.32%
Relative reinforcing efficacy refers to the behavior-strengthening or maintaining property of a reinforcer when compared to that of another reinforcer. Traditional measures of relative reinforcing efficacy sometimes have led to discordant results across and within studies. By contrast, previous investigations have found traditional measures to be congruent with behavioral economic measures, which provide a framework for integrating the discordant results. This study tested whether the previously demonstrated congruence between traditional relative reinforcing efficacy measures and behavioral economic demand curve measures is sufficiently robust to persist when demand for one reinforcer is altered. Cigarette smokers pulled plungers for cigarettes or two magnitudes of money on progressive-ratio schedules that increased the response requirement across sessions. Demand for the two different reinforcers was assessed in single-schedule and concurrent-schedule sessions. Demand curve measures Pmax and Omax correlated significantly with traditional measures of breakpoint and peak response rate, respectively. Relative locations of demand curves for money and cigarettes under single schedules predicted preference in concurrent schedules in most cases. Although measures of relative reinforcing efficacy for money changed with money magnitude...

Validity of a Demand Curve Measure of Nicotine Reinforcement with Adolescent Smokers

Murphy, James G.; MacKillop, James; Tidey, Jennifer W.; Brazil, Linda A.; Colby, Suzanne M.
Fonte: PubMed Publicador: PubMed
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.32%
High or inelastic demand for drugs is central to many laboratory and theoretical models of drug abuse, but it has not been widely measured with human substance abusers. The authors used a simulated cigarette purchase task to generate a demand curve measure of nicotine reinforcement in a sample of 138 adolescent smokers. Participants reported the number of cigarettes they would purchase and smoke in a hypothetical day across a range of prices, and their responses were well-described by a regression equation that has been used to construct demand curves in drug self-administration studies. Several demand curve measures were generated, including breakpoint, intensity, elasticity, Pmax, and Omax. Although simulated cigarette smoking was price sensitive, smoking levels were high (8+ cigarettes/day) at prices up to 50¢ per cigarette, and the majority of the sample reported that they would purchase at least 1 cigarette at prices as high as $2.50 per cigarette. Higher scores on the demand indices Omax (maximum cigarette purchase expenditure), intensity (reported smoking level when cigarettes were free), and breakpoint (the first price to completely suppress consumption), and lower elasticity (sensitivity of cigarette consumption to increases in cost)...

Latent factor structure of a behavioral economic cigarette demand curve in adolescent smokers

Bidwell, L. Cinnamon; MacKillop, James; Murphy, James G.; Tidey, Jennifer W.; Colby, Suzanne M.
Fonte: PubMed Publicador: PubMed
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.33%
Behavioral economic demand curves, or quantitative representations of drug consumption across a range of prices, have been used to assess motivation for a variety of drugs. Such curves generate multiple measures of drug demand that are associated with cigarette consumption and nicotine dependence. However, little is known about the relationships among these facets of demand. The aim of the study was to quantify these relationships in adolescent smokers by using exploratory factor analysis to examine the underlying structure of the facets of nicotine incentive value generated from a demand curve measure. Participants were 138 adolescent smokers who completed a hypothetical cigarette purchase task, which assessed estimated cigarette consumption at escalating levels of price/cigarette. Demand curves and five facets of demand were generated from the measure: Elasticity (i.e., 1/α or proportionate price sensitivity); Intensity (i.e., consumption at zero price); Omax (i.e., maximum financial expenditure on cigarettes); Pmax (i.e., price at which expenditure is maximized); and Breakpoint (i.e., the price that suppresses consumption to zero). Principal components analysis was used to examine the latent structure among the variables. The results revealed a two-factor solution...

Educational Upgrading and Returns to Skills in Latin America : Evidence from a Supply-Demand Framework, 1990–2010

Gasparini, Leonardo; Galiani, Sebastian; Cruces, Guillermo; Acosta, Pablo
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.13%
It has been argued that a factor behind the decline in income inequality in Latin America in the 2000s was the educational upgrading of its labor force. Between 1990 and 2010, the proportion of the labor force in the region with at least secondary education increased from 40 to 60 percent. Concurrently, returns to secondary education completion fell throughout the past two decades, while the 2000s saw a reversal in the increase in the returns to tertiary education experienced in the 1990s. This paper studies the evolution of wage differentials and the trends in the supply of workers by educational level for 16 Latin American countries between 1990 and 2000. The analysis estimates the relative contribution of supply and demand factors behind recent trends in skill premia for tertiary and secondary educated workers. Supply-side factors seem to have limited explanatory power relative to demand-side factors, and are only relevant to explain part of the fall in wage premia for high-school graduates. Although there is significant heterogeneity in individual country experiences...

Energy Demand Models for Policy Formulation : A Comparative Study of Energy Demand Models

Bhattacharyya, Subhes C.; Timilsina, Govinda R.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.19%
This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries. The study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are used in the existing energy demand models. Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early 1970s, key issues such as the poor-rich and urban-rural divides, traditional energy resources, and differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models. While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed sector representations produce more realistic projections compared with the econometric models, they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries. Development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases...

Primer on Demand-Side Management : With an Emphasis on Price-Responsive Programs

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.15%
The practice of Demand-Side Management (DSM) has evolved over the past three decades in response to lessons learned from implementation in different global settings, and also in response to the changing needs of restructured power markets. The most notable change that is occurring today is the inclusion of programs that emphasize price responsiveness in the DSM portfolio. Traditionally, DSM programs were confined to energy efficiency and conservation programs with reliability-driven load management programs being used occasionally to manage emergency situations. Electric prices were taken as a given when designing such programs, hampering the eventual success of all such efforts. This Primer has been written to introduce the new concepts of price-responsive DSM that are currently being investigated in a variety of different market settings. It highlights different criteria and taxonomies for classification and evaluation of DSM programs and recommends programs that will likely provide a better fit with the objectives, expected needs and outcomes of DSM initiatives in developing and transition countries. As defined in this primer, such initiatives include both load shifting programs (that either clip peak loads or shift energy used in the peak period to off-peak periods) and efficiency programs (that reduce the total amount of energy). The purpose of the primer is to provide successful examples of price-responsive DSM programs from the developed world and by discussing their workings...

Unpackaging Demand for Water Service Quality : Evidence from Conjoint Surveys in Sri Lanka

Yang, Jui-Chen; Pattanayak, Subhrendu K.; Jonson, F. Reed; Mansfield, Carol; van den Berg, Caroline; Jones, Kelly
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.11%
In the early 2000s, the Government of Sri Lanka considered engaging private sector operators to manage water and sewerage services in two separate service areas: one in the town of Negombo (north of Colombo), and one stretching along the coastal strip (south from Colombo) from the towns of Kalutara to Galle. Since then, the government has abandoned the idea of setting up a public-private partnership in these two areas. This paper is part of a series of investigations to determine how these pilot private sector transactions (forming part of the overall water sector reform strategy) could be designed in such a manner that they would benefit the poor. The authors describe the results of a conjoint survey evaluating the factors that drive customer demand for alternative water supply and sanitation services in Sri Lanka. They show how conjoint surveys can be used to unpackage household demand for attributes of urban services and improve the design of infrastructure policies. They present conjoint surveys as a tool for field experiments and a source of valuable empirical data. In the study of three coastal towns in southwestern Sri Lanka the conjoint survey allows the authors to compare household preferences for four water supply attributes-price...

Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Turkey

Domaç, Ilker
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.33%
The growing adoption of an inflation targeting framework in emerging market economies has increased the importance of understanding inflation dynamics and forecasting its future path in these countries. The author considers the case of Turkey and investigates the performance of models that have some theoretical foundations. To this end, his study focuses on mark-up models, monetary models, and the Phillips curve. The findings suggest that the mark-up models have the best in-sample performance followed by money gap models and the Phillips curve. The empirical results from out-of-sample forecasting performance for the period covering the new economic program (May 2001-December 2002), however, show that the Phillips curve and the money gap models perform better than mark-up models. These findings, in turn, imply that (1) Phillips curves augmented with the exchange rate and money models might provide complementary views in the Turkish context; and (2) the relative importance of output gap and monetary disequilibrium in the inflation process has increased under the floating exchange rate regime. The results underscore the importance of relying on multiple models of inflation in the conduct of Turkish monetary policy.

Off and Running? Technology, Trade and the Rising Demand for Skilled Workers in Latin America

Sanchez-Paramo, Carolina; Schady, Norbert
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.15%
The authors describe the evolution of relative wages in five Latin American countries-Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico. They use repeated cross-sections of household surveys, and decompose the evolution of relative wages into factors associated with changes in relative supply and relative demand. The authors have three main conclusions: 1) Increases in the relative wages of the most skilled (university-educated) workers took place concurrently with increases in their relative abundance in all of the countries except Brazil. This is strong evidence of increases in the demand for skilled workers. 2) Increases in the wage bill of skilled workers occurred largely within sectors, and in the same sectors in different countries, which is consistent with skill-biased technological change. 3) Trade appears to be an important transmission mechanism. Increases in the demand for the most skilled workers took place at a time when countries in Latin America considerably increased the penetration of imports, including imports of capital goods. The authors show that changes in the volume and research and development intensity of imports are significantly related to changes in the demand for more skilled workers in Latin America. Their research complements earlier work on the effects of technology transmitted through trade on productivity and on the demand for skilled labor.

Labor Demand and Trade Reform in Latin America

Fajnzylber, Pablo; Maloney, William F.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.34%
There are concerns that trade reform and globalization will increase the uncertainty that the average worker, especially the relatively unskilled worker, faces. The increased competitiveness of product markets and greater access to foreign inputs, the argument goes, will lead to more elastic demand for workers. This may have adverse consequences for both labor market volatility and wage dispersion. The authors argue that while the case that trade liberalization should increase own-wage elasticities may be broadly compelling for competitive import-competing industries, it is less so for imperfectly competitive, nontradable, or export industries. They test the hypothesis using establishment-level panel data from three countries with periods of liberalization. The data provide only mixed support for the idea that trade liberalization has an impact on own-wage elasticities. No consistent patterns emerge. If globalization is making the lives of workers more insecure, it is probably working through some other mechanism.

Price Elasticity of Nonresidential Demand for Energy in South Eastern Europe

Iimi, Atsushi
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.31%
Recent volatility in international energy prices has revealed South Eastern Europe as one of the most vulnerable regions to such external shocks. Under the current global economic downturn, in addition, the region s energy-intensive industries are faced with the challenge of the weakening demand for their outputs. This paper casts light on the relationship between the price and the demand for energy. Based on firm level data, it is shown that the price elasticity of industrial energy demand is about -0.4 on average. There are a number of data issues to interpret the results correctly. But Albania and Macedonia are systematically found to have a relatively elastic demand for energy on the order of -0.7 to -0.8. In these countries, therefore, price adjustments would be one of the effective policy options to balance demand with supply during the period of energy crisis. In other countries, the demand response would be much weaker; pricing cannot be the only solution. Other policy measures, such as facilitation of firm energy efficiency and improvements in the quality of infrastructure services...

Residual demand models for strategic bidding in European power exchanges : revisiting the methodology in the presence of a large penetration of renewables

VAZQUEZ, Samuel; RODILLA, Pablo; BATLLE, Carlos
Fonte: Elsevier Science Sa Publicador: Elsevier Science Sa
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.11%
In the deregulated framework in place in most power systems, a significant part of the energy is traded through auctions on day-ahead markets where agents submit bids to either buy or sell energy. When defining a bidding strategy, generators usually resort to models that anticipate and simulate agent interactions. The residual demand curve (RDC), a well-known approach to representing competitor behaviour, enables generators to formulate effective oligopolistic strategies. One way to estimate and build an RDC is to use information available about other agents' bids on previous and comparable days as a reference, This basic approach to market modelling has proven useful in the past in European power exchanges. In the current context, however, characterised by substantial market penetration on the part of non-dispatchable renewable resources, the suitability of this method of RDC building may need to be tested. This paper first analyses how the results of day-ahead auctions on European power exchanges have been affected by the growing penetration of renewable energy. It then questions both the use of RDC as an approach in this changing context and the aforementioned simplified estimation method to compute these curves. The discussion is illustrated with empirical evidence from the Iberian market.

Environmental Protection and Optimal Taxation

Eskeland, Gunnar S.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.3%
Struck by the fact that economists did not have a plausible model for why emissions standards, and mandated technologies, play a dominant role in pollution control, the author sought answers to two questions: 1) Should one stimulate emissions reductions by firms, and households, rich and poor, in the same way? 2) How should one combine instruments that make activities cleaner, with instruments that shift the economy toward less-polluting activities? Using clean air as an example of a pure public good, he shows the role of emissions taxes, or such surrogate instruments, as emissions standards, and presumptive Pigouvian taxes. To illustrate the combination of demand management, and technical controls, he computes a marginal cost curve for emissions reductions in the form of cleaner cars, and fuels. And he estimates a demand model for cars, and driving. The result: under the assumption that revenue, and re-distributive transfers bear no premia, the cost of reducing pollution in Mexico City increases forty four percent if an emissions standards program is used...

A Primer on Consumer Surplus and Demand : Common Questions and Answers

Peskin, Henry M.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: ESMAP Paper; Publications & Research; Publications & Research :: Brief
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.38%
Measuring consumer's surplus is an increasingly popular approach to quantifying the monetary benefits of energy projects at the World Bank. This paper provides a brief primer on the concept and addresses some concerns and criticisms for this method. The contents include: consumer demand - this paper assumes that the benefit measured by consumer's surplus is a satisfactory measure of the benefit of policy that brings about lower energy prices and considers key challenges in this approach; estimating the demand curve; are two points adequate for estimating the demand curve - a large gain in consumer's surplus is an expected outcome of the large fall in energy costs due to electrification; whose demand curve is it anyway; does willingness-to-pay overestimate ability-to-pay; why is consumer's surplus so large; aren't the estimates affected by subsidies and taxation; and why not simply ask consumers about their benefits from electrification.

Economics of Tobacco Toolkit, Tool 3 : Economic Analysis of Tobacco Demand

Wilkins, Nick; Yurekli, Ayda; Hu, Teh-wei
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.16%
The tobacco epidemic is a worldwide phenomenon with significantly destructive effects on developing, transitional, and industrialized nations. The first scientific evidence on the health consequences of tobacco consumption-specifically, smoking-was discovered in industrialized nations. As a result, the economic analysis of tobacco control issues began and was developed in these countries. This tool attempts to explain the process of analysis of demand for tobacco products as simply as possible. It includes discussions of basic economic and analysis principles (written for non-specialists such as policy makers and analysts) and more advanced technical points (intended for use by the economists and econometricians who will undertake the actual demand analysis). Consumption of tobacco products includes both smoked categories (e.g., cigarettes, hand-rolled tobacco, pipe tobacco, cigars, bidis, kreteks, etc.) and smokeless types (such as snuff and chewing tobacco). In industrialized countries, cigarettes disproportionately influence tobacco epidemics. This tool discusses and presents...

IFC Mobile Money Study 2011; Summary Report

International Finance Corporation
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Working Paper; Publications & Research; Publications & Research :: Working Paper
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.25%
Mobile money (m-money) refers to the use of mobile phones to perform financial and banking functions. However, the technology is far ahead of the infrastructure of financial and technical network service providers needed for an m-money system to function. This study was undertaken to increase the understanding of m-money and to address key issues in scaling up development of m-money services globally. It examines the potential demand for m-money, national regulatory environments, major obstacles, and the requirements of potential service providers and networks to run m-money services as viable businesses. Four countries - Brazil, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, and Thailand - each of which represents a different world region, socioeconomic situation, and financial sector context, were included in the study. The countries were analyzed in terms of m-money business models, money flows and demand, potential user perceptions and behavior, regulations, and agent networks. In each country, an m-money service provider acted as a partner institution. To place these four countries in the wider context of m-money developments...

Electricity Auctions : An Overview of Efficient Practices

Maurer, Luiz T. A.; Barroso, Luiz A.
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.29%
This report assesses the potential of electricity contract auctions as a procurement option for the World Bank's client countries. It focuses on the role of auctions of electricity contracts designed to expand and retain existing generation capacity. It is not meant to be a 'how-to' manual. Rather, it highlights some major issues and options that need to be taken into account when a country considers moving towards competitive electricity procurement through the introduction of electricity auctions. Auctions have played an important role in the effort to match supply and demand. Ever since the 1990s, the use of long-term contract auctions to procure new generation capacity, notably from private sector suppliers, has garnered increased affection from investors, governments, and multilateral agencies in general, as a means to achieve a competitive and transparent procurement process while providing certainty of supply for the medium to long term. However, the liberalization of electricity markets and the move from single-buyer procurement models increased the nature of the challenge facing system planners in their efforts to ensure an adequate and secure supply of electricity in the future at the best price. While auctions as general propositions are a means to match supply with demand in a cost-effective manner...

Demand Collapse or Credit Crunch to Firms? Evidence from the World Bank's Financial Crisis Survey in Eastern Europe

Nguyen, Ha; Qian, Rong
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.09%
While there is a consensus that the 2008-2009 crisis was triggered by financial market disruptions in the United States, there is little agreement on whether the transmission of the crisis and the subsequent prolonged recession are due to credit factors or to a collapse of demand for goods and services. This paper assesses whether the primary effect of the global crisis on Eastern European firms took the form of an adverse demand shock or a credit crunch. Using a unique firm survey conducted by the World Bank in six Eastern European countries during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the paper shows that the drop in demand for firms' products and services was overwhelmingly reported as the most damaging adverse effect of the crisis. Other "usual suspects," such as rising debt or reduced access to credit, are reported as minor. The paper also finds that the changes in firms' sales and installed capacity are significantly and robustly correlated with the demand sensitivity of the sector in which the firms operate. However...

Trade, Capital Accumulation, and Structural Unemployment: An Empirical Study of the Singapore Economy

Looi Kee, Hiau; Teck Hoon, Hian
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.32%
The past three and a half decades witnessed a distinctly declining trend in Singapore's unemployment rate, which dropped from an average annual rate of 7.85 percent in 1966-70 to 2.74 percent in 1991-2000. The authors seek to identify and empirically examine the factors that have influenced Singapore's unemployment rate in an environment of low and stable inflation. They incorporate a union bargaining framework into a standard-factors trade model, in which an increase in the relative price or capital stock in the export sector raises the demand wage that firms can afford to pay relative to workers' fall-back income, and consequently lowers equilibrium unemployment. The magnitude of the effects depends on the fall-back income, the weight unions attach to employment, and the elasticity of labor demand, which the authors estimate using data on Singapore. The results show that labor unions in Singapore care more about employment than wages. Together with a small fall-back income and elastic labor demand, the authors show that given the same percentage change in relative export prices and capital accumulation in the export sector...