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Age transition of tuberculosis incidence and mortality in Brazil

Chaimowicz,Flávio
Fonte: Faculdade de Saúde Pública da Universidade de São Paulo Publicador: Faculdade de Saúde Pública da Universidade de São Paulo
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/02/2001 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.19%
OBJECTIVE: Before the Aids pandemic, demographic transition and control programs prompted a shift in the age of incidence of tuberculosis from adults to older people in many countries. The objective of the study is to evaluate this transition in Brazil. METHODS: Tuberculosis incidence and mortality data from the Ministry of Health and population data from the Brazilian Bureau of Statistics were used to calculate age-specific incidence and mortality rates and medians. RESULTS: Among reported cases, the proportion of older people increased from 10.5% to 12% and the median age from 38 to 41 years between the period of 1986 and 1996. The smallest decrease in the incidence rate occurred in the 30--49 and 60+ age groups. The median age of death increased from 53 to 55 years between 1980 and 1996. The general decline in mortality rates from 1986 to 1991 became less evident in the 30+ age group during the period of 1991 to 1996. A direct correlation between age and mortality rates was observed. The largest proportion of bacteriologically unconfirmed cases occurred in older individuals. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of tuberculosis has begun to shift to the older population. This shift results from the decline in the annual risk of infection as well as the demographic transition. An increase in reactivation tuberculosis in older people is expected...

The future of higher education in BRIC countries: a demographic perspective

Guimarães,Raquel Rangel de Meireles
Fonte: Associação Brasileira de Estudos Populacionais Publicador: Associação Brasileira de Estudos Populacionais
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/12/2013 Português
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56.14%
In regard to the development and reform of higher education (HE), recent and projected evidence suggest that enrollment growth is likely to be slower than it is at present (or even negative) as a result of ageing populations. The case of the BRIC countries is particularly interesting for the study of the impact of demographic changes on HE because these countries show considerable diversity regarding their demographic transition. This paper explores how demographic changes are likely to affect the demand for higher education in BRIC countries. I argue that these countries are now facing a great expansion of enrollment but, given declining fertility levels, diversification of the HE clientele will become a common strategy. But diversification of the student population will place a new and complex set of demands on HE institutions, and equity in higher education in the near future will depend on how HE systems are structured in these countries.

Health, Demographic Transition and Economic Growth

Jorgensen, Ole Hagen
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.27%
This paper develops a link between four central components of the demographic transition: survival rates; fertility decisions; altruistic intergenerational transfers from workers toward their parents; and economic growth. An increase in child survival is found to reduce the fertility rate and altruistic transfers, and thereby increase the savings rate and the productivity growth rate. The analysis illustrates the key role of child health in the demographic transition.

The Gender and Intergenerational Consequences of the Demographic Dividend

Schultz, T. Paul
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.3%
The demographic transition changes the age composition of a population, potentially affecting resource allocation at the household level and exerting general equilibrium effects at the aggregate level. If age profiles of income, consumption, and savings were stable and estimable for the entire population, they might imply how the demographic transition would affect national savings rates, but there is little agreement on the impact of age composition. These age profiles differ by gender and are affected by human capital investments, whereas existing microsimulations are estimated from samples of wage earners that are not distinguished by sex or schooling and make no effort to model family labor supply behavior or physical and human capital accumulation. Considering these shortcomings of assessments of the "demographic dividend," a case study based on household surveys and long-run social experiments may be more informative. Matlab, Bangladesh, extended a family planning and maternal and child health program to half the villages in the district in 1977, and recorded fertility in the program villages was 15–16 percent lower than in the control villages for two decades. Households in the program villages realized health and productivity gains that were concentrated among women...

Labor Market Policies under a Youth Bulge : How to Benefit from Demographic Dividend in Pakistan

Robalino, David; Cho, Yoonyoung
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.16%
This paper assesses labor market trends and outcomes in Pakistan over the past decade. It shows that despite a high rate of employment growth, labor market outcomes have been disappointing: most jobs have been created in low productivity sectors/activities, and even if they provide a minimum level of income to often avoid poverty, they remain low quality jobs providing little or no protection to workers against shocks. In addition, female participation rates for women are very low and there are large income disparities between rural and urban areas, and across sectors. A fundamental part of the problem is the low level of education of the labor force. Pakistan is currently in the midst of a demographic transition that is bringing a growing number of youth into the labor market. This youth bulge that is unwinding opens both challenges and opportunities. Challenges because of the need to create enough jobs to employ new entrants; Opportunities, because if this is done the country will enjoy a demographic dividend ...

Effects of marital fertility and nuptiality on fertility transition in the Islamic Republic of Iran, 1976-1996

Abbasi-Shavazi, Mohammad Jalal
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 163999 bytes; 347 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
Português
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56.17%
International stereotypes tend to portray Iran as a ‘traditional’ society resistant to many aspects of social change. Based on this assumption, the generally held view is that Iran is experiencing one of the highest fertility rates in the world, and that demographic transition has not started yet. Recent statistics has proved, however, that the reality is profoundly different. Iran has experienced an astonishing fertility decline in recent years. This study aims to review the trends and changes in fertility over the period 1976 to 1996. The Islamic Republic of Iran experienced a moderate increase in fertility during 1976-1986, mainly due to the relaxation of family planning programs by the government. On the other hand, fertility began to decline in 1984, and has sharply declined since 1988. The question has arisen to what extent this significant change has been due to the changes in nuptiality and marital fertility. The own-children data from the 1986 and 1996 censuses allow us to analyse the change in fertility in the last two decades, and to decompose the change in fertility into two main components of nuptiality and marital fertility. The result has shown that around 85 percent of the changes is due to marital fertility...

Socio-economic and demographic setting of Muslim populations

Abbasi-Shavazi, Mohammad Jalal; Jones, Gavin W
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 151053 bytes; 347 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
Português
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56.22%
This paper explores population dynamics and characteristics of Muslim populations to aid deeper understanding of the Muslim world. Having defined Muslim-majority countries and countries with large Muslim populations, the paper will first, explain demographic, social and economic characteristics of Muslim populations, and second, analyze demographic, social and economic characteristics of Muslim populations, and second, analyze demographic transition in the Muslim world. Population policies in Muslim-majority countries will then be examined. The analysis shows that Muslim populations are characterized by great ethnic and cultural diversity. Although on the whole, Muslim populations rank below the world’s average in levels of socio-economic development, there is a wide range of socio-economic conditions. Fertility transition has begun in most of these countries at some time over the past two decades, and in some, it has moved very rapidly. Because of the rapid population growth in many of the Muslim-majority countries, Muslims are expected to be climbing towards a quarter of the world’s population by the year 2025. Therefore, their demographic trends will have an important bearing on those of the world as a whole and their political and cultural influence on the world stage is likely to increase.; no

Indigenous fertility in the Northern Territory of Australia: stalled demographic transition

Johnstone, Kim Maree
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Thesis (PhD); Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.25%
This research explores contemporary features of Indigenous fertility in the Northern Territory of Australia, the country's third largest state with the smallest total population, but with the largest proportion comprised of Indigenous peoples. The research exploits births data from a range of data sources to investigate whether Indigenous fertility trends in the Northern Territory over the past 20 years are a characteristic of stalled demographic transition. The research rests on three hypotheses: that Indigenous fertility trends in the Northern Territory were themselves an artefact of the data used to calculate the fertility rates; that there has been stalled demographic transition and the fertility declines documented for Northern Territory women during the 1960s and 1970s have not been maintained into the 21st century; and that contemporary Indigenous childbearing is characterised by universal, young mothering but not high parity. A conceptual framework was developed that captures the myriad factors that affect Indigenous fertility outcomes to provide a context within which the research results could be understood. A three-stage approach was then used to examine Indigenous fertility trends. Firstly, a detailed analysis of the collection processes for the quantitative data available for this research was undertaken...

Demographic transition and demographic imbalance in India

Bose, Ashish
Fonte: Health Transition Centre, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University Publicador: Health Transition Centre, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: 37495 bytes; application/pdf
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.26%
In the coming decades, there will be growing demographic disparity in India and, like economic disparity, this should be a matter of serious concern for our planners and policy–makers. This demographic disparity leading to demographic imbalance may cause considerable social turbulence and may even pose a threat to political stability. Demographers must look far beyond demographic statistics and anticipate the consequences of demographic imbalance between different regions and states in India as well as between different religious communities, castes and tribes. Relevant data based on 1991 Census and National Family Health Survey (1992-93) are presented to highlight the ‘North-South Demographic Divide’.; no

Demographic transition: the predicament of sub-Saharan Africa

Gaisie, S. Kwesi
Fonte: Health Transition Centre, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University Publicador: Health Transition Centre, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: 87286 bytes; application/pdf
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.16%
Sub-Saharan Africa consists of countries regarded as underdeveloped or developing and is part of the so-called Third World. Third World countries share many characteristics but at the continental level they are not the same. For instance, sub-Saharan Africa is sparsely populated, in contrast to South and East Asia, and it is much less urbanized than Latin America. It stands out among the other major regions of the Third World as having the slowest rate of economic growth in recent years: an average annual growth rate of gross domestic product of 2.4 per cent between 1980 and 1990 compared to 3.0 per cent in South Asia, 4.3 in Middle East and North Africa and 3.1 per cent in Latin America during the same period; its population growth is outstripping that of food production and also it is politically Balkanized, consisting of a large number of countries most of which are small and at an early stage of development. There are 50 of them, including South Africa and British Indian Ocean Territory. The latter is excluded from the discussion for lack of demographic information while the former will not figure much for a number of reasons. We know more about the demographic profiles of the other countries of the region than we do about South Africa. Reports on the methodology of studies conducted in South Africa are not published and major questions on coverage...

Sri Lanka - Demographic Transition : Facing the Challenges of an Aging Population with Few Resources

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Social Protection Study; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.35%
As a result of low fertility rates and high life expectancy, the current demographic trends in Sri Lanka include a declining share of children and increasing share of elderly, and (for now) an increasing working age population. Sri Lanka has a unique window of opportunity to take advantage of the high share of working age population to stimulate economic growth, but the other two emerging population issues spur questions on their own. In this context, the report discusses some of the economic implications of demographic transition in Sri Lanka, focusing on employment and productivity related issues on one side; and performance of cash transfer programs aiming to assist the poor and vulnerable groups on the other. This report quantifies Sri Lanka's demographic change by providing updated population projections and by applying National Transfers Accounts methodology documenting how the demographic change and aging contribute to life-cycle deficit and to Sri Lanka's employment and labor market. The challenges and opportunities associated with the upcoming demographic transition are highlighted...

Russian Federation : The Demographic Transition and Its Implications for Adult Learning and Long-Term Care Policies

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Policy Note; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.24%
This report describes the demographic transition in the Russian Federation and its implications for adult learning and long-term care policies. The population of Russia is aging and declining rapidly compared to other European nations. Russia's current age structure results from decades of complex demographic trends that have created a population structure with increasingly fewer young people. Women are having fewer children and are waiting longer to have children. Russia's mortality remains higher than in other developed societies. This high mortality is due to an unusually high incidence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and injuries among adult men. Two key challenges face Russia. The first challenge is whether public expenditure on pensions and health care will become unsustainable as the size of the elderly population increases. The second challenge is whether declining population sizes will reduce the size of the labor force and hence reduce economic growth.

The Demographic Benefit of International Migration : Hypothesis and Application to Middle Eastern and North African Contexts

Fargues, Philippe
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.38%
The view that international migration has no impact on the size of world population is a sensible one. But the author argues, migration from developing to more industrial countries during the past decades may have resulted in a smaller world population than the one which would have been attained had no international migration taken place for two reasons: most of recent migration has been from high to low birth-rate countries, and migrants typically adopt and send back to their home countries models and ideas that prevail in host countries. Thus, migrants are potential agents of the diffusion of demographic modernity, that is, the reduction of birth rates among nonmigrant communities left behind in origin countries. This hypothesis is tested with data from Morocco and Turkey where most emigrants are bound for the West, and Egypt where they are bound for the Gulf. The demographic differentials encountered through migration in these three countries offer contrasted situations-host countries are either more (the West) or less (the Gulf) advanced in their demographic transition than the home country. Assuming migration changes the course of demographic transition in origin countries, the author posits that it should work in two opposite directions-speeding it up in Morocco and Turkey and slowing it down in Egypt. Empirical evidence confirms this hypothesis. Time series of birth rates and migrant remittances (reflecting the intensity of the relationship kept by emigrants with their home country) are strongly correlated with each other. Correlation is negative for Morocco and Turkey...

As Time Goes By in Argentina; Economic Opportunities and Challenges of the Demographic Transition

Gragnolati, Michele; Rofman, Rafael; Apella, Ignacio; Troiano, Sara
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Book; Publications & Research; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.3%
The process of demographic transition through which Argentina is passing is a window of both opportunities and challenges in economic and social terms. Argentina is still a young country in which the working-age population represents the largest proportion of its total population. Currently, the country just began a 30-year period with the most advantageous age structure of its population, which could favor greater economic growth. This situation, known as the 'demographic window of opportunity,' will last until the beginning of the 2040s. The dynamics of the fertility and mortality rates signify a gradual ageing of the population, with implications for various dimensions of the economy, the social protection system, public policies, and society in general. This book studies the opportunities and challenges that the demographic transition poses for the Argentine economy, its most important social sectors like the healthcare, education, and social protection systems, and the potential fiscal trade-offs that must be dealt with. The study shows that even though Argentina is moving through its demographic transition, it just recently began to enjoy the window of opportunity and this constitutes a great opportunity to achieve an accumulation of capital and future economic growth. Once the window of opportunity has passed...

Demographic Transition and the Labor Market in Sri Lanka

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.29%
Sri Lanka's demographic transition has significantly shaped the age distribution of the labor force and created a large working age population (World Bank 2008). Changing cohort sizes of young and old workers not only affect their own labor market outcomes (job quality, earnings), but also potentially affect growth prospects in the economy. Recovering from a 30-year conflict in the North and the East, Sri Lanka aims to accelerate growth in the medium term by substantially increasing investments. What will be the role of the labor market in delivering this growth? The service sector is expanding and accounts for nearly 60 percent of the Growth Domestic Product (GDP) and almost 40 percent of employment. However, only 56 percent of the working age population is employed, a result of low participation and high unemployment rates among women and youth. Any growth strategy will have to bring in more working age people, particularly women, into economic activity. The paper is organized as follows. The two sections that follow present an overview of the supply and demand side of the labor market. The next section discusses the ways in which the demographic transition could shape the labor market...

Capitalizing on the Demographic Transition : Tackling Noncommunicable Diseases in South Asia

Engelgau, Michael Maurice; El-Saharty, Sameh; Kudesia, Preeti; Rajan, Vikram; Rosenhouse, Sandra; Okamoto, Kyoko
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.16%
This book looks primarily at Cardio Vascular Disease (CVD) and tobacco use because they account for a disproportionate amount of the Non Communicable Disease (NCD) burden the focus is strategic rather than comprehensive. It considers both country and regional level approaches for tackling NCDs, as many of the issues and challenges of mounting an effective response are common to most South Asian countries. The prevention and control of NCDs constitute a development issue that low-income countries in South Asia are already facing. Both country and regional-level strategies are important because many of the issues and challenges of mounting an effective response to NCDs are common to most South Asian countries, even though their disease burden profiles vary. Hence, the rationale for this book is that strategic decisions for prevention and treatment of NCDs can effectively address the future burden of disease, promote healthy aging, and increase the potential benefit from the demographic transition, thus contributing to economic development. This book's goal is to encourage countries to develop...

Demographic Change and Policy Responses: Implications for the Global Economy

Tyers, Rod; Shi, Qun
Fonte: Blackwell Publishing Ltd Publicador: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.1%
The fertility declines associated with the final phase of the global demographic transition have led to slower population growth and accelerated ageing in developed countries and in several advanced developing countries. A global demographic and economic

How can a homeostatic perspective enhance demographic transition theory?

Wilson, Christopher; Airey, P L
Fonte: Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group Publicador: Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.22%
This paper addresses the emerging interest in the relationship between homeostatic models and demographic transition theory. Firstly, it considers the nature of fertility measurement and concepts. The paper then goes on to examine evidence from pre-transitional societies in which demographic regimes have been most thoroughly studied, summarizing what is known about their character. The nature and current status of homeostatic theories in demography and the institutional supports of pre-transitional regimes are considered. The implications of the findings on pre-transitional populations for transition theory are then discussed. The paper concludes with suggestions for ways in which studies of transition within a framework of homeostatic regimes could be developed.

Demographic theory: A long view

Caldwell, John
Fonte: Population Council Publicador: Population Council
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.31%
This essay argues that demographic theory over the last half-century has substituted short-term explanations, often focusing on single demographic events, for long-term theory. This means not only that the explanations cannot be employed to forecast the situation in the more distant future, but they are inadequate even for short-term analysis. A basis for a longer-term theory of fertility transition is proposed, employing the concept of social structure and demographic behavior adjusting, slowly and after a considerable lag, to each of three modes of production. The focus is on the transition from agricultural to industrial production, especially as this is occurring in the most advanced industrial societies. Three major conclusions are drawn. (1) Un-anticipated fertility changes over the last 50 years can be incorporated within a single demographic transition theory. (2) Societal and demographic changes are still at an early stage of their transition to full adjustment to industrialization. (3) The trend, associated with women's participation in the work force, toward below-replacement fertility will continue, but at some stage most governments will probably attempt to raise fertility to replacement level even if the effort is extremely expensive and slows economic growth.

Age transition of tuberculosis incidence and mortality in Brazil

Chaimowicz,Flávio
Fonte: Faculdade de Saúde Pública da Universidade de São Paulo Publicador: Faculdade de Saúde Pública da Universidade de São Paulo
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/02/2001 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.19%
OBJECTIVE: Before the Aids pandemic, demographic transition and control programs prompted a shift in the age of incidence of tuberculosis from adults to older people in many countries. The objective of the study is to evaluate this transition in Brazil. METHODS: Tuberculosis incidence and mortality data from the Ministry of Health and population data from the Brazilian Bureau of Statistics were used to calculate age-specific incidence and mortality rates and medians. RESULTS: Among reported cases, the proportion of older people increased from 10.5% to 12% and the median age from 38 to 41 years between the period of 1986 and 1996. The smallest decrease in the incidence rate occurred in the 30--49 and 60+ age groups. The median age of death increased from 53 to 55 years between 1980 and 1996. The general decline in mortality rates from 1986 to 1991 became less evident in the 30+ age group during the period of 1991 to 1996. A direct correlation between age and mortality rates was observed. The largest proportion of bacteriologically unconfirmed cases occurred in older individuals. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of tuberculosis has begun to shift to the older population. This shift results from the decline in the annual risk of infection as well as the demographic transition. An increase in reactivation tuberculosis in older people is expected...