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Fluxos de capitais externos, crescimento e desenvolvimento econômico: evidências de causalidade; External Capital Flows, Economic Growth and Development: Evidences of Causality.

Pimentel, Luciano Aparecido dos Santos
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 30/03/2007 Português
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A redução da pobreza é um problema amplamente discutido no mundo. Por meio do crescimento econômico, os países podem melhorar seu padrão de vida e alcançar maiores níveis de desenvolvimento. Com a abertura promovida no contexto da globalização, houve aumento no fluxo de bens e capitais externos para os países em desenvolvimento, favorecendo seu crescimento econômico. Este trabalho buscou identificar relações de causalidade entre fluxos externos, crescimento e desenvolvimento econômico. Foram utilizados indicadores trimestrais e anuais sugeridos na revisão teórica. Os dados trimestrais foram utilizados para construir um modelo de auto-regressão vetorial (VAR), que verificou relações de causalidade entre as variáveis. Os dados anuais foram utilizados para a análise de regressão. Os resultados sugerem que o crescimento econômico apresenta relações de causalidade com investimento interno, poupança, abertura econômica e produtividade. A produtividade, por sua vez, é influenciada pelo capital humano, investimento estrangeiro direto e progresso tecnológico. O desenvolvimento econômico apresentou relações de causalidade com educação e renda (aumento e distribuição de renda).; The poverty reduction is widely discussed around the world. Through the economic growth...

Global Development Finance 2012 : External Debt of Developing Countries

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Português
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56.51%
The data and analysis presented in this edition of global development finance are based on actual flows and debt related transactions for 2010 reported to the World Bank Debtor Reporting System (DRS) by 129 developing countries. The reports confirm that in 2010 international capital flows to developing countries surpassed preliminary estimates and returned to their pre-crisis level of $1.1 trillion, an increase of 68 percent over the comparable figure for 2009. Private capital flows surged in 2010 driven by a massive jump in short-term debt, a strong rebound in bonds and more moderate rise in equity flows. Debt related inflows jumped almost 200 percent compared to a 25 percent increase in net equity flows. The rebound in capital flows was concentrated in a small group of 10 middle income countries where net capital inflows rose by an average of nearly 80 percent in 2010, almost double the rate of increase (44 percent) recorded by other developing countries. These 10 countries accounted for 73 percent of developing countries gross national income (GNI)...

Gross Capital Flows : Dynamics and Crises

Broner, Fernando; Didier, Tatiana; Erce, Aitor; Schmukler, Sergio L.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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66.43%
This paper analyzes the joint behavior of international capital flows by foreign and domestic agents -- gross capital flows -- over the business cycle and during financial crises. The authors show that gross capital flows are very large and volatile, especially relative to net capital flows. When foreigners invest in a country, domestic agents tend to invest abroad, and vice versa. Gross capital flows are also pro-cyclical, with foreigners investing more in the country and domestic agents investing more abroad during expansions. During crises, especially during severe ones, there is retrenchment, that is, a reduction in both capital inflows by foreigners and capital outflows by domestic agents. This evidence sheds light on the nature of shocks driving capital flows and helps discriminate among existing theories. The findings seem consistent with shocks that affect foreign and domestic agents asymmetrically, such as sovereign risk and asymmetric information.

Banking Flows and Financial Crisis : Financial Interconnectedness and Basel III Effects

Ghosh, Swati R.; Sugawara, Naotaka; Zalduendo, Juan
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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56.3%
This paper examines the factors that determine banking flows from advanced economies to emerging markets. In addition to the usual determinants of capital flows in terms of global push and local pull factors, it examines the role of bilateral factors, such as growth differentials and economic size, as well as contagion factors and measures of the depth in financial interconnectedness between lenders and borrowers. The analysis finds profound differences across regions. In particular, in spite of the severe impact of the global financial crisis, banking flows in emerging Europe stand out as a more stable region than is the case in other developing regions. Assuming that the determinants of banking flows remain unchanged in the presence of structural changes, the authors use these results to explore the short-term implications of Basel III capital regulations on banking flows to emerging markets.

Potential Gains from Capital Flight Repatriation for Sub-Saharan African Countries

Fofack, Hippolyte; Ndikumana, Leonce
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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56.44%
Despite the recent increase in capital flows to Sub-Saharan Africa, the region remains largely marginalized in financial globalization and chronically dependent on official development aid. And with the potential decline in the level of official development assistance in a context of global financial crisis, the need to increase domestic resources mobilization as well as non-debt generating external resources is critical now more than ever before. However, the debate on resource mobilization has overlooked an important untapped source of funds consisting of the massive stocks of private wealth stashed in Western financial centers, a substantial part of which left the region in the form of capital flight. This paper argues that the repatriation of flight capital should take a more prominent place in this debate from a moral standpoint and for clear economic reasons. On the moral side, the argument is that a large proportion of the capital flight legitimately belongs to the Africans and therefore must be restituted to the legitimate claimants. The economic argument is that repatriation of flight capital will propel the sub-continent on a higher sustainable growth path while preserving its financial stability and without mortgaging the welfare of its future generations through external borrowing. The analysis in the paper demonstrates quantitatively that the gains from repatriation are large and dominate the expected benefits from other sources such as debt relief. It is estimated that if only a quarter of the stock of capital flight was repatriated to Sub-Saharan Africa...

Are Price-Based Capital Account Regulations Effective in Developing Countries?

David, Antonio C.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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56.4%
The author evaluates the effectiveness of policy measures adopted by Chile and Colombia, aiming to mitigate the deleterious effects of pro-cyclical capital flows. In the case of Chile, according to his Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) analysis, capital controls succeeded in reducing net short-term capital flows but did not affect long-term flows. As far as Colombia is concerned, the regulations were capable of affecting total flows and also long-term ones. In addition, the co-integration models indicate that the regulations did not have a direct effect on the real exchange rate in the Chilean case. Nonetheless, the model used for Colombia did detect a direct impact of the capital controls on the real exchange rate. Therefore, the results do not seem to support the idea that those regulations were easily evaded.

Gross Inflows Gone Wild : Gross Capital Inflows, Credit Booms and Crises

Calderon, Cesar; Kubota, Megumi
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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56.29%
The main goal of the paper is to examine whether surges in private capital inflows lead to credit booms. The authors built a quarterly database on gross capital inflows, credit to the private sector, and other macro-financial indicators for a sample of 71 countries from 1975q1 to 2010q4. Identifying credit booms is not trivial: they use different criteria implemented in the literature. The estimates suggest that: (i) Surges in gross private capital inflows are overall good predictors of credit booms. (ii) The likelihood of credit booms is higher if the surges in foreign flows are driven by private other investment inflows and, to a lesser extent, portfolio investment inflows. (iii) Surges in gross inflows are also good predictors of credit booms that end up in a financial crisis -- "bad" credit booms. This finding holds even after controlling for the appreciation of the local currency and the build-up of leverage. (iv) Bad credit booms are more likely to occur when surges are driven by other investment inflows. At best...

The Effect of Capital Flows Composition on Output Volatility

Federico, Pablo; Vegh, Carlos A.; Vuletin, Guillermo
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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66.31%
A large literature has argued that different types of capital flows have different consequences for macroeconomic stability. By distinguishing between foreign direct investment and portfolio and other investments, this paper studies the effects of the composition of capital inflows on output volatility. The paper develops a simple empirical model which, under certain conditions that hold in the data, yields three key testable implications. First, output volatility should depend positively on the volatilities of both foreign direct investment and portfolio and other inflows. Second, output volatility should be an increasing function of the correlation between both kinds of inflows. Third, output volatility should be a decreasing function of the share of foreign direct investment in total capital inflows, for low values of that share. The data provide strong support for all three implications, even after controlling for other factors that may influence output volatility, and after dealing with potential endogeneity problems. These findings call attention to the importance of taking into account the synchronization and composition of capital flows for output stabilization purposes...

Caribbean Economic Overview 2002 : Macroeconomic Volatility, Household Vulnerability, and Institutional and Policy Responses

Caribbean Group for Cooperation in Economic Development
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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56.26%
This report uses an analytical framework that take into account the effect of natural disasters as well as country size in measuring the serious implications macroeconomic or aggregate volatility (marked period-to-period variations in measures of macroeconomic performance, such as GDP growth) has for individuals and households in Caribbean countries. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 1 reviews the recent economic and social development of the Caribbean. Chapter 2 begins by characterizing volatility of aggregate income and consumption growth and by employing regression analysis to assess the relative importance of the different factors that would be expected to determine macroeconomic volatility in the Caribbean. The chapter also examines factors that might be expected to influence the extent to which macroeconomic volatility is absorbed or amplified-that is, the extent of financial market development, the behavior of remittances, and the size and volatility of external capital flows. Chapter 3 addresses the broad question of how macroeconomic volatility in the Caribbean affects households and their income and consumption...

FYR Macedonia Policy-Based Guarantee : Supporting the Development Agenda and Strengthening Access to Capital Markets

Najdov, Evgenij
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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The ongoing global economic turmoil is seriously impeding client countries access to capital markets, with relatively little regard for the fundamentals of the countries involved. Growing risk aversion among investors has triggered a flight-to-quality that is affecting all but the safest assets (AAA-rated). Small, open, and developing economies in Europe and Central Asia, including FYR Macedonia, are being exceptionally hurt. Despite its history of prudent macroeconomic policies and progress on structural reforms, FYR Macedonia s access to capital markets has been virtually closed or available only on very unfavorable terms. Policy-Based Guarantees (PBG) help well-performing clients with a track record of macro stability and structural reforms mitigate market access risks while advancing a country s development policy dialogue. PBGs also have the added benefit of catalyzing private capital flows by alleviating critical risks. The PBG extended by the World Bank to FYR Macedonia ensured the country s access to markets in a virtually closed market environment and at highly competitive terms.

Unconventional Monetary Policy Normalization in High-Income Countries : Implications for Emerging Market Capital Flows and Crisis Risks

Burns, Andrew; Kida, Mizuho; Lim, Jamus Jerome; Mohapatra, Sanket; Stocker, Marc
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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56.32%
As the recovery in high-income countries firms amid a gradual withdrawal of extraordinary monetary stimulus, developing countries can expect stronger demand for their exports as global trade regains momentum, but also rising interest rates and potentially weaker capital inflows. This paper assesses the implications of a normalization of policy and activity in high-income countries for financial flows and crisis risks in developing countries. In the most likely scenario, a relatively orderly process of normalization would imply a slowdown in capital inflows amounting to 0.6 percent of developing-country GDP between 2013 and 2016, driven in particular by weaker portfolio investments. However, the risk of more abrupt adjustments remains significant, especially if increased market volatility accompanies the unwinding of unprecedented central bank interventions. According to simulations, abrupt changes in market expectations, resulting in global bond yields increasing by 100 to 200 basis points within a couple of quarters...

Capital Flows, Country Risk, and Contagion

Fiess, Norbert
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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66.24%
It has been widely recognized that both country-specific and global factors matter in explaining capital flows. The author presents an empirical framework that disentangles the relative weight of country-specific and global factors in determining capital flows. In essence, his approach first separates the common component of emerging country spreads from their country-specific component. The pure country risk and global risk components are then used as explanatory variables to account for the observed pattern of capital flows using multivariate cointegration analyses. The author is able to identify the relative weight of global and country-specific factors in explaining capital flows to Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela in the 1990s. When further decomposing country risk into its determinants, the author finds that within a small system it is possible to jointly identify the determinants of capital flows and sovereign bond spreads. We find that capital flows are driven by country risk and global factors ("contagion" and U.S. long-term interest rates)...

What Factors Appear to Drive Private Capital Flows to Developing Countries? And How Does Official Lending Respond?

Dasgupta, Dipak; Ratha, Dilip
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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66.21%
The authors study what drives private capital flows to developing countries, as well as the apparent response of official lending for the years 1978-97. Econometric results reveal that non-foreign direct investment portfolio flows to a country tended to rise in response to: 1) An increase in the current account deficit. 2) A rise in foreign direct investment flows. 3) Higher per capita income. 4) Growth performance. Once those variables were accounted for, private flows did not seem to be influenced by location, and regional factors. In addition, private capital flows (whether foreign direct investment or not) seem to respond positively (with a one-year lag) to World Bank lending commitments. By far the most important determinant of official lending to a developing country, seems to be the external current account balance, or a change in international reserves in the country. Official flows - including World Bank lending - appear to have played a stabilizing (or counter-cyclical) role in response to the volatility of private capital flows...

Global Development Finance 2006 : The Development Potential of Surging Capital Flows, Volume 1. Review, Analysis, and Outlook

World Bank
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research
Português
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66.26%
Global Development Finance is the World Bank's annual review of global financial conditions facing developing countries. The current volume provides analysis of key trends and prospects, including coverage of capital originating from developing countries themselves. Robust global growth and a favorable financing environment provided the context for a record expansion of private capital flows to developing countries in 2005. Many low-income countries still have little or no access to international private capital, and instead depend largely on official finance from bilateral and multilateral creditors to support their development objectives. Capital flows are changing due to financial integration among developing countries, financial innovations, domestic debt markets, and the global role of the Euro. Net official flows continue to decline as official lending falls and there is more aid and debt relief for the poorest countries. To ensure economic stability, developing countries must manage capital flows with effective macroeconomic policies, prudent accumulation of reserves, careful management of oil-export revenues, and improvements in standards for the corporate sector.

Global Development Finance 2011 : External Debt of Developing Countries

World Bank
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research
Português
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56.46%
The World Bank's Debtor Reporting System (DRS), from which the aggregates and country tables presented in this report are drawn, was established in 1951. The debt crisis of the 1980s brought increased attention to debt statistics and to the World debt tables, the predecessor to Global development finance. Now the global financial crisis has once again heightened awareness in developing countries of the importance of managing their external obligations. International capital flows to the 128 developing countries reporting to the World Bank Debtor Reporting System (DRS) fell by 20 percent in 2009 to $598 billion (3.7 percent of Gross National Income (GNI), compared with $744 billion in 2008 (4.5 percent of GNI) and a little over half the peak level of $1,111 billion realized in 2007. Private flows (debt and equity) declined by 27 percent despite a rebound in bond issuance, portfolio equity flows, and short-term debt flows. Both foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and bank lending fell precipitously. By contrast, the net inflow of debt-related financing from official creditors (excluding grants) rose 175 percent as support was stepped up to low- and middle-income countries severely affected by the global financial crisis.

Global Development Finance 2006 : The Development Potential of Surging Capital Flows, Volume 2. Summary and Country Tables

World Bank
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.41%
Global Development Finance is the World Bank's annual review of global financial conditions facing developing countries. The current volume provides analysis of key trends and prospects, including coverage of capital originating from developing countries themselves. Robust global growth and a favorable financing environment provided the context for a record expansion of private capital flows to developing countries in 2005. Many low-income countries still have little or no access to international private capital, and instead depend largely on official finance from bilateral and multilateral creditors to support their development objectives. Capital flows are changing due to financial integration among developing countries, financial innovations, domestic debt markets, and the global role of the Euro. Net official flows continue to decline as official lending falls and there is more aid and debt relief for the poorest countries. To ensure economic stability, developing countries must manage capital flows with effective macroeconomic policies, prudent accumulation of reserves, careful management of oil-export revenues, and improvements in standards for the corporate sector.

Complementarity between Multilateral Lending and Private Flows to Developing Countries : Some Empirical Results

Ratha, Dilip
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.27%
Despite the surge in private capital flows in the 1990s, lending by the multilateral development banks continues to be a significant source of external finance for low-income and lower-middle-income countries. And for middle-income countries, which receive the lion's share of private flows, multilateral lending has played an important stabilizing role during times of credit rationing. Even though multilateral loans may have behaved countercyclically with respect to private flows in the short term, these loans also tended to complement private flows in the medium term by signaling-and often fostering-a better investment environment in the borrowing countries.

Should Capital Flows Be Regulated? A Look at the Issues and Policies

Islam, Roumeen
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.36%
The author argues that externalities in financial markets, implicit and explicit guarantees on financial transactions, and information asymmetries in financial markets that may exacerbate contagion provide a rationale for a government role in managing the risk associated with cross-border capital flows. Governments can complement private sector risk management with measures that help deal with the volatility of capital flows. These measures include those that control the type and volume of capital flows and those that help investors make better investment decisions, and that may reduce herding behavior, such as better information provision. The main instruments that have been tried or recommended since the onset of the recent financial crises can be grouped in several categories. 1) Debt management: The composition, maturity structure, and level of external debt have played an important role in financial crises. High short-term debt relative to liquid assets has been found to be consistently correlated with financial crises in recent times. Governments can affect the level of debt (including private debt) and its composition...

Global Capital Flows and Financing Constraints

Harrison, Ann E.; Love, Inessa; McMillan, Margaret S.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.24%
Firms often cite financing constraints as one of their primary obstacles to investment. Global capital flows, by bringing in scarce capital, may ease the financing constraints of host country firms. But if incoming foreign investors borrow heavily from domestic banks, foreign direct investment may exacerbate financing constraints by crowding host country firms out of domestic capital markets. Combining a unique cross-country firm-level panel with time-series data on restrictions on international transactions and capital flows, Harrison, Love, and McMillan find that different measures of global flows are associated with a reduction in firm-level financing constraints. First, the authors show that one type of capital inflow-foreign direct investment-is associated with a reduction in financing constraints. Second, they test whether restrictions on international transactions affects the financing constraints of firms. The results suggest that only one type of restriction-those on capital account transactions-negatively affects firms' financing constraints. The authors also show that multinational firms are not financially constrained and do not appear to be sensitive to the level of foreign direct investment. This implies that foreign direct investment eases financing constraints for non-multinational firms. Finally...

Capital Flows and Economic Growth in Developing Countries; Fluxos de Capitais e Crescimento Econômico nos Países em Desenvolvimento

Damasceno, Aderbal Oliveira
Fonte: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade Publicador: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; ; Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 02/01/2014 Português
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66.27%
This paper develops an empirical analysis of the relationship between capital flows and economic growth in developing countries. Empirical evidence suggest: i) there is evidence that external savings mitigates economic growth; ii) there is no evidence that capital flows foster economic growth; iii) there is no evidence that external saving and capital flows effects on the economic growth depend on the levels of institutional development, financial development, trade openness, macroeconomic stability and human capital. One possible explanation for these results is the possibility of capital flows to developing countries lead to macroeconomic instability, financial crises and currency appreciation, with adverse effects on economic growth.; Esse trabalho desenvolve uma análise empírica sobre as relações entre fluxos de capitais e crescimento econômico nos países em desenvolvimento. Os resultados sugerem: i) há evidências de que a poupança externa desestimula o crescimento econômico; ii) não há evidências de que os fluxos de capitais estimulam o crescimento econômico; iii) não existem evidências de que os efeitos da poupança externa e dos fluxos de capitais sobre o crescimento econômico dependem dos níveis de desenvolvimento institucional...