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What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe
Fonte: Global Economic Modeling Network Publicador: Global Economic Modeling Network
Tipo: Conferência ou Objeto de Conferência
Publicado em //2008 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.51%
We assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU15 over the period 1970-2006 using stationarity and cointegration analysis. Specifically, we use panel unit root tests of the first and second generation allowing in some cases for structural breaks. We also apply modern panel cointegration techniques developed by Pedroni (1999, 2004), generalized by Banerjee and Carrion-i-Silvestre (2006) and Westerlund and Edgerton (2007), to a structural long-run equation between general government expenditures and revenues. While estimations point to fiscal sustainability being an issue in some countries, fiscal policy was sustainable both for the EU15 panel set, and within sub-periods (1970-1991 and 1992-2006).

What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? : a panel data diagnostic

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe
Fonte: European Central Bank Publicador: European Central Bank
Tipo: Outros
Publicado em /10/2007 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.51%
We assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU15 over the period 1970-2006 using stationarity and cointegration analysis. Specifically, we use panel unit root tests of the first and second generation allowing in some cases for structural breaks. We also apply modern panel cointegration techniques developed by Pedroni (1999, 2004), generalized by Banerjee and Carrion-i-Silvestre (2006) and Westerlund and Edgerton (2007), to a structural long-run equation between general government expenditures and revenues. While estimations point to fiscal sustainability being an issue in some countries, fiscal policy was sustainable both for the EU15 panel set, and within sub-periods (1970-1991 and 1992-2006).

Should we care for structural breaks when assessing fiscal sustainability?

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe
Fonte: ISEG - Departamento de economia Publicador: ISEG - Departamento de economia
Tipo: Outros
Publicado em //2008 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.4%
We apply recent panel cointegration methods to a structural equation between government expenditure and revenue. Allowing for multiple endogenous breaks and after computing appropriate bootstrap critical values, we conclude for fiscal sustainability in the overall EU15 panel.

What We Really Know about Fiscal Sustainability in the EU? A Panel Data Diagnostic

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe
Fonte: ISEG – Departamento de Economia Publicador: ISEG – Departamento de Economia
Tipo: Outros
Publicado em //2007 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.51%
We assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU15 over the period 1970-2006 using stationarity and cointegration analysis. Specifically, we use panel unit root tests of the first and second generation allowing in some cases for structural breaks. We also apply modern panel cointegration techniques developed by Pedroni (1999, 2004), generalized by Banerjee and Carrion-i-Silvestre (2006) and Westerlund and Edgerton (2007), to a structural long-run equation between general government expenditures and revenues. While estimations point to fiscal sustainability being an issue in some countries, fiscal policy was sustainable both for the EU15 panel set, and within sub-periods (1970-1991 and 1992-2006).

The Challenges to Long Run Fiscal Sustainability in Romania

Canagarajah, Sudharshan; Brownbridge, Martin; Paliu, Anca; Dumitru, Ionut
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.76%
Romania, along with many other countries in the European Union, faces daunting fiscal challenges. Fiscal balances deteriorated sharply following the global economic crisis, forcing Romania to implement a fiscal consolidation that was one of the largest in the European Union, but which may not be sustainable without a recovery of economic growth. Although the ratio of public debt to gross domestic product is still relatively modest, at around 35 percent, long-term fiscal solvency is threatened by the costs of funding the public pension system in the face of adverse demographic shifts over the next 50 years. Because of widespread tax evasion, the tax system in Romania is one of the least efficient in the European Union. Tax reforms that can reduce the amount of tax lost to evasion and fraud could make a major contribution to enhancing fiscal sustainability.

Refinements to the Probabilistic Approach to Fiscal Sustainability Analysis

Frank, Nathaniel; Ley, Eduardo
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.61%
This paper relaxes some key assumptions in the probabilistic approach to fiscal sustainability. First, the authors identify structural breaks over the sample period used to estimate the covariance matrix of the shocks to the debt ratios. Second, the assumption of normality of the shocks is dropped by modeling their respective empirical distribution directly, which makes it possible to quantify asymetries and thick tails. Third, the use of fiscal reaction functions is avoided by focusing attention on debt-stabilizing balances.

The "How to" of Fiscal Sustainability : A Technical Manual for Using the Fiscal Sustainability Tool

Bandiera, Luca; Budina, Nina; Klijn, Michel; van Wijnbergen, Sweder
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.7%
Fiscal sustainability analysis (FSA) is an important component of macroeconomic analysis for many developing countries. To further enhance understanding of fiscal policy and the constraints faced by policymakers, the authors develop a toolkit for FSA in middle-income countries which builds on previous work in this area and on new developments in dealing with uncertainty. The FSA toolkit includes an Excel-based FSA tool and a technical manual accompanying it. The FSA tool is standardized and simple, but at the same time flexible enough to allow for user-defined country-specifics. This manual provides step-by-step technical instructions for running the FSA tool and includes mathematical appendices and a glossary.

Quantitative Approaches to Fiscal Sustainability Analysis : A New World Bank Tool Applied to Turkey

van Wijnbergen, Sweder; Budina, Nina
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.71%
Fiscal sustainability analysis (FSA) is an important component of macroeconomic analysis. The authors review various quantitative approaches to FSA with a major objective to bring these approaches together and to present a user-friendly tool for FSA that reflects modern developments. They combine a dynamic simulations approach with a simplified version of the steady-state consistency approach. They also incorporate two different methods to deal with uncertainty: user-defined stress tests and stochastic simulations. The tool goes further by evaluating the required fiscal adjustment as a consequence of the stochastic realizations of the exogenous variables. Furthermore, the fiscal sustainability tool incorporates an endogenous debt feedback rule for the primary surplus, a fiscal policy reaction function. Besides outlining the theoretical framework, the authors also present a case study for Turkey.

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines : OECS Fiscal Issues, Policies to Achieve Fiscal Sustainability and Improve Efficiency and Equity of Public Expenditures

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.66%
The central theme of the St. Vincent and the Grenadines Fiscal Issues report, the first Public Expenditure Review conducted by the World Bank in this country, is that in order to restore rapid economic growth, ensure medium-term fiscal sustainability under the umbrella of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) and protect the social achievements realized in the past decades, the country will best benefit from: (a) tightening fiscal policy, mostly through expenditure cuts; (b) an increase in the efficiency of public investments and public service delivery; (c) strengthening regulation and efficiency of public utilities and sea/air transport; and (d) promoting education and skills development to prepare the population, notably the poor, to take advantage of new opportunities in the global environment.

Dominica : OECS Fiscal Issues, Policies to Achieve Fiscal Sustainability and Improve Efficiency and Equity of Public Expenditures

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.62%
This report concludes that during FY1993/94 to FY002/03 the fiscal policy implemented by the government of Dominica was unsustainable and posed a risk to the stability of the currency board arrangement. Moreover, this report recommends that most of the adjustment required to achieve a sustainable fiscal policy needed to come from expenditure cuts, in particular a reduction in the number of established and non-established positions, and from focusing capital expenditures on projects geared to growth and poverty reduction and funded largely by grants and concessional loan. A reduction in tax exemptions and discretionary concessions is also essential, as is a restructuring of the revenue base through the introduction of the value-added tax (VAT). While social indicators are good for a country at this level of gross domestic product (GDP), there is ample room for more efficient modalities of education and health service delivery that can generate significant savings and improve effectiveness. In addition, the government should strive to ensure that its social programs, in particular social protection, are delivered in a well-targeted and effective manner in order to provide more effective safety nets in the context of fiscal consolidation and continued vulnerability to external shocks. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 1 discusses fiscal sustainability in Dominica and presents options for fiscal consolidation; Chapter 2 discusses the budget management system in place and its effect on budgetary outcomes. Chapter 3 examines the Public Sector Investment Program (PSIP); Chapter 4 discusses public sector employment and compensation; Chapters 5 and 6 examine public expenditures and outcomes in the health and education sectors; and Chapter 7 discusses social protection programs.

Grenada, OECS Fiscal Issues : Policies to Achieve Fiscal Sustainability and Improve Efficiency and Equity of Public Expenditures

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.77%
The report reviews Grenada public expenditures for the period 1995-02 and suggests policy recommendations to achieve fiscal sustainability, improve social service delivery, and reform social protection based on the economic situation of the country at the time. To restore rapid economic growth, ensure medium-term fiscal sustainability under the umbrella of the currency union and protect the social achievements realized in the past decades, the main challenges facing the Grenada government are to: (a) tighten fiscal policy, notably through reduction of capital expenditures and the realization of the fiscal savings expected from the public sector reform initiated in 1997 (b) increase the efficiency of public investments and public service delivery; (c) strengthen regulation and efficiency of public utilities and sea/air transport; (d) modernize the legal framework that oversees public sector employment; and (e) promote education and skills development to prepare the population, notably the poor, to take advantage of new opportunities in the global environment. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 1 discusses fiscal sustainability in Grenada and presents options for fiscal consolidation; Chapter 2 discusses the role of the business cycle in the design of fiscal policy by reviewing the cyclical components of the fiscal accounts; Chapter 3 discusses the budget management system in place and its effect on budgetary outcomes. Chapter 4 examines the Public Sector Investment Program (PSIP); Chapter 5 discusses public sector employment and compensation issues; Chapters 6 and 7 examine public expenditures and outcomes in the education and health sectors; and Chapter 8 discusses social protection programs. Since the completion of the report...

Saint Kitts and Nevis - OECS Fiscal Issues : Policies to Achieve Fiscal Sustainability and Improve Efficiency and Equity of Public Expenditures

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.7%
Despite high levels of per capita incomes and good social service provision, poverty remains a persistent problem in St. Kitts and Nevis. To improve competitiveness, restore rapid economic growth, and ensure its medium-term sustainability in the context of the currency union, the main challenges to the St. Kitts and Nevis government are to (a) tighten fiscal policy, notably through expenditure cuts; (b) increase the efficiency of public investments and public service delivery; (c) strengthen regulation and efficiency of public utilities and sea/air transport; and (d) promote education and skills development to prepare the population, notably the poor, to take advantage of new opportunities in the global environment. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 1 discusses fiscal sustainability in St. Kitts and Nevis and presents options for fiscal consolidation; Chapter 2 discusses the role of the business cycle in the design of fiscal policy by reviewing the cyclical components of the fiscal accounts; Chapter 3 discusses the budget management system in place and its effect on budgetary outcomes; Chapter 4 examines the Public Sector Investment Program; Chapter 5 discusses public sector employment and compensation; Chapters 6 and 7 examine public expenditures and outcomes in the education and health sectors; and Chapter 8...

Achieving Fiscal Sustainability in Swaziland : Reestablishing Control over the Wage Bill

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.57%
This report discusses how to establish control over the wage bill in Swaziland, which has become uncommonly large. The wage bill needs to be addressed urgently for two main reasons. The first is that it cannot be afforded any more, as the public revenue base has experienced a significant collapse that will not be reversed in the near future. The second is that wages are crowding out other type of expenditure necessary for quality service delivery. Swaziland needs to consider two sets of options: one set to put the wage bill on a track that will see it decrease permanently over time as a percentage of GDP, and one that will contract it rapidly to achieve fiscal sustainability. The two sets of options, while conceptually different, need to be considered jointly to keep government effective and efficient. The report includes a simple modeling exercise, based on the actual pay scale and positions in the civil service (and estimates for the army) which provides insights as to the drivers of the wage bill. It also evidences the need to act decisively and rapidly to make it sustainable. It is only with a mix of immediate one-off reductions in wages and positions...

Euro area time varying fiscal sustainability

Afonso, António; Jalles, João Tovar
Fonte: ISEG – Departamento de Economia Publicador: ISEG – Departamento de Economia
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Publicado em //2015 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.66%
We assess the time varying features of fiscal sustainability in the euro area via revisiting the empirical relationship between the primary budget surplus and the debt-to-GDP ratio. Focusing on a sample of 11 Euro-area countries between 1999Q1 and 2013Q4 and by means of time series analyses, we find that: i) fiscal policy seems to have been sustainable in Belgium, France, Germany and Netherlands and a Ricardian (monetary dominant) regime might have been present; ii) debt exhibited a negative response following an innovation in the budget surplus in half of the sample; iii) the time-varying coefficient model shows that the 2008-2009 global economic and financial crisis exerted a sizeable negative impact on fiscal sustainability; iv) expenditure-based fiscal rules are strong determinants of fiscal sustainability. All in all, we found some evidence against the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level.

Representing, reducing or removing complexity : indicators of sustainability and fiscal sustainability

BHUTA, Nehal; MALITO, Debora Valentina; UMBACH, Gaby
Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.71%
This Working Paper is the elaboration of the discussion emerged during the workshop ‘Global Governance by Indicators : Sustainability and Sustainable Public Finances’ convened by the Global Governance Programme of the European University Institute in Florence on 10 and 11 April 2014. It is based on the workshop's background paper published as EUI RSCAS WP 2014/77 available at: http://hdl.handle.net/1814/31913; During the last two decades numerous indicators measuring sustainability and its different dimensions have been created. The 2007 economic crisis led to increased scrutiny of public sector fiscal imbalances, and efforts to create more sophisticated measures of fiscal sustainability. The literature on this recent formulation and use of sustainability indicators is broad and contested. It however largely tends to focus on fiscal components, while wider meanings of sustainability are accounted for to a lesser degree. This working paper examines the conceptual and empirical questions relating to the production of indicators of sustainability, both in the sense of fiscal sustainability and sustainable development. It also discusses the uses of sustainability indicators.

Honduras : Public Expenditure Management for Poverty Reduction and Fiscal Sustainability

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Public Expenditure Review; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.74%
As a highly indebted poor country, Honduras faces a dual challenge of reducing poverty while ensuring medium-term sustainability of its public spending to avoid recurrence of over indebtedness. This Public Expenditure Review (PER) is intended to contribute to the government's overall poverty reduction efforts through efficient use of public resources and fiscally sustainable improvement in public services. It provides an assessment of Honduras' institutional capacity for good expenditure management and identifies key policy priorities in selected sector (health, education, and infrastructure). A good institutional arrangement of effective public expenditure management requires achieving the three inter-related objectives of aggregate fiscal discipline, allocation of resources to strategic priorities, and operational efficiency. One of the problems in Honduras' public expenditure management that can be tackled immediately is the need for improvement in the budget classification system for better fiscal transparency. Besides...

Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice : A Handbook

Burrnside, Craig
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.75%
The handbook is organized around three themes: (i) basic theory and tools for everyday use, (ii) the effects of business cycles on public finance and the role of fiscal rules, and (iii) crises and their impact on fiscal sustainability. The first theme is central to the book's purpose of bringing the basic theoretical literature together, along with a set of examples used to illustrate particular methods of analysis. The second and third themes develop the topic of fiscal sustainability further, by extending it to topics at the forefront of policy debates in the recent past.

Diamonds Are Not Forever : Botswana Medium-term Fiscal Sustainability

Kojo, Naoko C.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.76%
This paper analyzes Botswana's medium-term fiscal sustainability in view of the expected depletion of diamonds in the future. The analysis shows that in the absence of policy adjustments, Botswana's current fiscal policy strategy is unsustainable over the longer term, which could endanger macroeconomic stability and Botswana's reputation as Africa's success story. Ensuring medium-term sustainability of Botswana's public finances requires stronger revenue collection, through improved revenue administration, greater tax enforcement, and the rationalization of tax exemptions in order to realize the full revenue potential. Opportunities also exist to generate more revenue from the non-mining sector through changes in the tax regime. At the same time, the government needs to maximize the effectiveness of public expenditure and bring down public spending to levels that are more in line with long-term revenue prospects. A greater control over the public sector wage bill is critically important. In-house capacity for macroeconomic monitoring and fiscal analysis also needs to be enhanced further. Looking ahead...

Fiscal Sustainability in Burundi : Baseline Projections, Stochastic Simulations, and Policy Scenarios

Kida, Mizuho
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.8%
This paper analyzes Burundi's medium-term fiscal sustainability in the light of the country's vulnerability to various shocks. Earlier studies have highlighted the country's vulnerability to exogenous shocks related to commodity exports, rain-fed agriculture, and volatile foreign aid. Internally, uncertainty about the implementation of the government's fiscal reforms is a key risk. The earlier studies, however, did not quantify the size and impact of the risks on the country's fiscal sustainability. Drawing initially on the standard inter-temporal sustainability framework, the baseline analysis shows that Burundi's ongoing fiscal policy strategy is not sustainable, even with a gradually improving external environment and relatively strong growth. Stochastic simulations show that adverse shocks to rainfall or coffee prices could increase the country's debt-to-gross domestic product ratio by 5 to 7 percentage points above the projected baseline ratio. Aid shocks could have an even larger impact but the estimates are less statistically reliable because of the short time series and because historical volatility in part reflects endogenous shocks (such as reform implementation) as well as exogenous shocks (donors' behavior). The policy scenario analysis shows that future fiscal sustainability will hinge on the government's ability to stick to its plans to broaden the tax base...

Subnational Fiscal Sustainability Analysis : What Can We Learn from Tamil Nadu?

Ianchovichina, Elena; Liu, Lili; Nagarajan, Mohan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.79%
In the late 1990s the Indian state of Tamil Nadu experienced an unprecedented fiscal deterioration, which was part of the widespread fiscal deterioration in Indian states. This deterioration was troubling because current expenditure outgrew total revenue, leaving little fiscal space for infrastructure spending. The paper presents a framework for subnational fiscal sustainability analysis and applies it to Tamil Nadu where subsequent fiscal adjustment has been ambitious and politically challenging, but has promised to put state finance on a sustainable path and create fiscal space for infrastructure investment. The paper emphasizes the differences between fiscal sustainability analysis at the national and subnational levels, attempts to take into account uncertainty, and discusses the key components of the state's fiscal accounts and how they respond to reforms and shocks. Risks to Tamil Nadu's fiscal outlook include interest rate shocks, pressures on the primary balance, and contingent liabilities. Though the state's efforts to remove constraints to economic growth, minimize recurrent expenditures and maximize its revenue potential will be critical for fiscal sustainability, national policies feature prominently in subnational fiscal adjustment. Tamil Nadu's quest for fiscal sustainability is relevant for other countries. Decentralization has given subnational governments in developing countries significant spending and taxation responsibilities...